tantangan pengembangan statistik semarang
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Tantangan Pengembangan Statistik
Kresnayana YahyaEmail : [email protected]: http://www.kresnayana.com
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Statistik pembangun Knowledge
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LOGO
STATISTIKA PEMANDU KEHIDUPAN
Kresnayana Yahya, M. Sc
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GLOBALIZATION
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Perkembangan pemanfaatanStatistik
• Tidak ada bagian kehidupan yang tidak membutuhkanInformasi Statistik
• Setiap process membutuhkan data statistik secaraterancang dengan kepastian tujuan danmemperhitungkan sumber variasinya
• Makin berkembangnya IT, Internet makapelipatgandaan manfaat statistik menjadi makin luarbiasa
• Kepekaan dan kemampuan berpikir statistik menjadiandalan dalam kehidupan
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Pengembangan statistik
• Makin mengarah pada process pengukuransetiap perubahan social, ekonomi, technology
• Ketertinggalan utama karena tidak banyakkemajuan dan Innovasi dalam menemukanIndikator baru dalam memandu perubahan
• Ada Small area Statistik, ada Big Data, adaData Mining ada Spatial Statistik; ada Black Swan yang di identifikasi untuk dikembangkandan memberi manfaat
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All encompassing relevance of e-government
For every life situation ... Marriage
Divorce
Unemployment
Company start-up
Buying real estate
PassportCar
Military oralternative service
Choosing a vocation
Driver's license
Startingschool
University
Apprentice-ships Pension
WorkChild care
Health ins.
Criminalregister
Moving houseHolidays
Car companies
Tourism
Local companies
Building companies
Job agencies
Jewelers
Removal companies
Legal advice
Plan proposals
Social insurance
... a comprehensive range of offeringsBirth
Death
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InformationEconomy
CreativeEconomy
Government
CommunityTRIPLE HELIX +
From agriculture economy to the era of creative economy
Agri-MarineEconomy
IndustrialEconomy
Academic/University
Business/Industry
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The Sharing Net Economy
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Statistik pemandu kehidupan
Dari masalah kependudukan , kesehatan , pendidikan dan seluruhmatarantainya membutuhkan makinbanyak DATA yang akan memanduKNOWLEDGE
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Data, Information and Knowledge
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DATA
INFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE
Points of reality: observations and facts
Organised data, placed in some meaningful context
Information that is transformed into capabilities for an effective action
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Why Statistic?
“We cannot, with our own eyes and ears, perceive more than a minute sample of human affairs, even in our own country – and a very random sample at that. So we rely on statistics in order to build and maintain our own model of the world. The data that are available mould our perceptions.”
Dudley Seers, 1983
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Why Statistics?
“ …as long as we are unable to put our arguments into figures, the voice of our science, although occasionally it may help to dispel gross errors, will never be heard by practical men. They are, by instinct, econometricians all of them, in their distrust of anything not amenable to exact proof.”
-J.A. Shumpeter 1933“The common sense of econometrics.” Econometrica 1:5-12
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Statistics is the basis for -
• Understanding the state/trends of human development• Developing policies and evaluating
policy impacts• Informing public debates, raising
awareness, generating politicalwill and pressure for action
=> The MDGs – long term demand; international mobilization
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What is Statistics?
§ Statistics is a science in my opinion, and it is no more a branch of mathematics than are physics, chemistry, and economics; for if its methods fail the test of experience –not the test of logic – they are discarded.
- John Tukey, 1962
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Why Statistics is Not Mathematics and Why We
Should Care About Teaching Statistics
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Statistical Thinking vs. Mathematical Thinking
§ Science entered the nineteenth century with a firm philosophical vision that has been called the clockwork universe… By the end of the nineteenth century, the errors had mounted instead of diminishing… By the end of the twentieth century, almost all of science had shifted to using statistical models… Popular culture has failed to keep up with the scientific revolution.
- David Salsburg “The Lady Tasting Tea” (2001)kresnayana yahya, pengembangan statistik,
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Statistical Thinking vs. Mathematical Thinking
§ Statistics has its own tools and ways of thinking, and statisticians are quite insistent that those of us who teach mathematics realize that statistics is not mathematics, nor is it even a branch of mathematics. In fact, statistics is a separate discipline with its own unique ways of thinking and its own tools for approaching problems.
- J. Michael Shaughnessy, “Research on Students’ Understanding of Some Big Concepts in Statistics” (2006)
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Statistical Thinking vs. Mathematical Thinking
§ Mathematical thinking is deductive: the inference of particular instances by reference to a general law or principle.
“General to specific”
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Statistical Thinking vs. Mathematical Thinking
§ Statistical thinking is inductive: the inference of general laws from particular instances.
“Specific to general”
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© 2000 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Expert Commentary
“There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
~ Benjamin Disraeli
“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as theability to read and write.”
~ Herbert George Wells
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Growing Demand for Official Statistics
External Forces Internal Forces
Development of official statistics
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Measurement is theEssence of Sciencen “When you can, count.”
¨ Francis Galton (1822-1911) First cousin to Charles Darwin.
n “When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind …” Lord Kelvin, 1883.
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Belajar statistics
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Research. Consulting & Training
Population by Islands (millions) 2010
East Indonesia
Source : Enciety Business ConsultMap à Sensus Penduduk Indonesia 2010
136.513.7
50.617.4
13.7
2.53.6
Population of Indonesia à 237.556.363 millions peoples2013 : 250 millionj
2013 : penduduk sudah 250 jutakresnayana yahya, pengembangan statistik, semarang 14 september 2013 29
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0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
205 JT
18.314.210.840.2
250
275
300
285 jtKELAHIRANTERCEGAH
80 JUTA
PERKEMBANGAN PENDUDUK INDONESIA(JUTA)
KELAHIRANTERCEGAH
100 JUTA
330 jt
237.8 JT
2010
248.6 JT
20135 x lipat2 x lipat
JUTA JIWA
TAHUNkresnayana yahya, pengembangan
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2,6%
Bali dan Nusa Tenggara
5,5%
Jawa 57,49%
21,31%Sumatera 5,8%
Kalimantan7,31%Sulawesi
PERSENTASE PERSEBARAN PENDUDUK INDONESIA MENURUT PULAU, TAHUN 2010
31
Persebaran penduduk tidak merataPenduduk terkonsentrasi di kota-kota besar;
Perubahan pola migrasia. Dalam 10 tahun terakhir, terjadi pola migrasi di Indonesia (dari pulau Jawa ke luarJawa);b. Terjadi migrasi dari central urban ke sub-urban sehingga area perkotaan semakinmelebar.
Sumber: SP 2010
ISU MOBILITAS PENDUDUK
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Pola Spasial Pemenuhan Permintaan Antara Lokal, Antar Propinsi dan Impor
Nilai persentase untuk impor dan antar pulau dihitung terhadap total pemen Tingkat ketebalan garis menunjukkan persentase besaran pemenuhan inpu
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Tantangan Produktivitas Indonesia
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Ringkasan Perkembangan Ekspor Indonesia
Logistic Cost Indonesia comparison
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Sumber : Kementerian Keuangan
54,0 59,8 78,7 91,3 99,4128,7
174,9203,9
0,94
26,1
1,621,51
1,59 1,631,54
1,73
2,05
2,30
1
0,5
1,5
2
2,5
100,0
50,0
0,0
200,0
150,0
250,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (APBN- 2013 (APBN)
% terhadap GDPAnggaran PembiayaanPembiayaan Infrastruktur (IDR Trilliun)
Prosentase APBN sektor infrastruktur terhadap GDP semakin meningkatdari tahun ke tahun dari 0,94% (2005) menjadi 2,30% (2013).
PEMBIAYAAN INFRASTRUKTURMELALUI APBN 2005 - 2013
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Sumber: DJA, DJPK, Kemen. Keuangan,KPS-Bappenas, BPS(diolah)
99,4 128,7174,9 203,9
74,8881,51
77,40
96,56
53,2
68,40
88,72
263,941,8
47,85
314,1
46,9
56,95
4,10 4,234,51
385,2
4,72
438,1
60,2
0,00
1,00
0,50
1,50
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
0
100
300
200
2010 2011 2012 (APBN-P) 2013 (APBN)
(%)5,00
4,50
4,00
Triliun Rupiah
500
400
APBN APBD BUMN Swasta Total % terhadap GDP
Meskipun investasi infrastruktur mengalami peningkatan dari tahun ke tahun (4-5%dari GDP), namun belum mencapai tingkat investasi sebelum krisis moneter 1997
(sekitar 7% GDP). Sementara itu, Investasi infrastruktur di China dan India mencapai8-10% dari GDP.
INVESTASI PEMBIAYAAN PEMBANGUNANINFRASTRUKTUR, 2010-2013 (APBN, APBD, BUMN, danSwasta)
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No Kementerian/ Lembaga 2011 2012 2013 Indikatif2014
1 Pekerjaan Umum 57.960,70 62.563,06 77.978,02 66.998,832 Perhubungan 22.111,72 28.117,71 36.679,25 33.558,803 Perumahan Rakyat 2.759,50 4.604,10 5.168,11 4.242,384 ESDM * 15.298,59 15.804,72 18.803,89 13.500,685 Kominfo 3.450,27 3.245,90 3.807,37 3.573,636 BPLS 1.286,00 1.606,90 2.256,87 845,137 Basarnas 1.163,80 1.111,79 1.666,38 1.438,798 BPWS 292,50 299,60 399,59 381,589 LPP RRI - - 985,18 782,9610 LPP TVRI - - 864,21 764,98
Total Infrastruktur 104.323,08 117.353,78 148.608,87 125.658,27
148.
608,
87
186.
847,
17
125.
658,
27
104.
323,
08
117.
353,
78
(Miliar Rupiah)
*) prioritas 8 bidang energi
PAGU INDIKATIF TAHUN 2014BIDANG INFRASTRUKTUR
Dalam rangka pemenuhantarget RPJMN 2010-2014, danmelanjutkan pelaksanaanKegiatan Prioritas DirektifPresiden, diperlukankebutuhan pendanaanInfrastrutur sebesar Rp.186,84 Triliun.
Prioritas pendanaandiarahkan pada pencapaiantarget:
§ Penyelesaian infrastrukturyang menunjang penguatankonektivitas nasional(transportasi dan ICT).
§ Pembangunan waduk,embung dan situ dalammenunjang pencapaiantarget Surplus Beras 10 JutaTon.
§ Pembangunan infrastrukturdasar dalam mendukungpencapaian target MDG’s
60.000,0040.000,0020.000,00
0,00
200.000,00180.000,00160.000,00140.000,00120.000,00100.000,00
80.000,00
2011 2012 2013 2014
Terdapat gap pembiayaansebesar Rp. 61,19 Triliun dalam
rangka Pemenuhan Target RPJMdan Lanjutan Direktif Presiden
Kebutuhan Pemenuhan RPJMdan Direktif PresidenTotal Infrastruktur
Slide - 13
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DISPARITAS KEMISKINANMASIH TINGGI - SEPTEMBER 2012
16 PROVINSI MASIHDIATAS RATA-RATAKEMISKINAN NASIONALDAN 17 PROVINSIBERADA DI BAWAHRATA-RATA KEMISKINANNASIONAL
30,6627,04
20,4120,76
14,9414,98
15,6515,88
17,2217,51
18,0218,58
13,0113,0613,08
13,48
9,829,89
10,41
7,647,968,008,058,068,28
5,015,37
5,716,196,38
6,83
3,703,95
SULAWESI TENGAHJAWA TENGAH
LAMPUNGYOGYAKARTAGORONTALO
BENGKULUNUSA TENGGARA BARAT
N ACEH DARUSSALAMNUSA TENGGARA TIMUR
MALUKUPAPUA BARAT
PAPUA
SULAWESI UTARAKALIMANTAN BARAT
SUMATERA BARATRIAU
MALUKU UTARAJAMBI
SULAWESI SELATANJAWA BARAT
SUMATERA UTARASULAWESI BARAT
SULAWESI TENGGARAJAWA TIMUR
SUMATERA SELATAN
KALIMANTAN SELATANBANGKA BELITUNG
BANTENKALIMANTAN TENGAH
KALIMANTAN TIMURKEPULAUAN RIAU
DKI JAKARTABALI
RATA-RATA NASIONAL11.66 %
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INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIATIAP PROVINSI TAHUN 2012
Rata-rata IPM Indonesia 2012 (72,77)
§ 15 provinsi diatas rata-rata nasional dan 18 provinsi dibawah rata-rata nasion
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Tantangan meningkatkan akses financial masyarakatakan meningkatkan Produktivitas dan mengurangisemua penyimpangan penggunaan dana dan transaksi
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The Value Equation
priceyFlexibilitTimelinessQualityValue ++
=
How are productivity
and price related?
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Quality Leadership
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Statistics in Industry
§ Statistical thinking is a philosophy of learning and action based on the following fundamental principles:§ All work is a system of interconnected
processes.§ Variation exists in all processes.§ Understanding and reducing variation are
keys to success.
- The American Society for Qualitykresnayana yahya,
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The Engineering Method and Statistical Thinking
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Sources of Variation in Production Processes
Materials
Tools
Operators Methods MeasurementInstruments
HumanInspectionPerformance
EnvironmentMachines
INPUTS PROCESS OUTPUTS
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kresnayana yahya, b i ik
1.52
Sampel random
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CASE STUDIES
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Process Mengukur
• Statistik adalah kegiatan MENGUKUR/ MEASUREMENT :
• MANAKALA ADA VARIASI DAN KETIDAK PASTIAN.
• Perkembangan, pertumbuhan, perubahan, akibat( dari suatu sebab), menemukan Gejala, mengenaliStruktur – struktur hubungan
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Mengukur Process• Design dari setiap aktivitas yang dapat
diukur:• Kualitas – Kepuasan – keberhasilan –
Tingkat capaian – perkembangan –Penjualan
• Perubahan Alam : cuaca- curah hujan –kelembaban – intensitas matahari, kecepatan angin, ketersediaan air , Oksigen, pencemaran
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Meaning context independent
Meaning totally context dependant
Low level of understanding
High levels of understanding
Data
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom Requires brain power
Requires processing power
Pengantar belajar statistik 58
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Mental Resources
¢Technology¢Information¢Knowledge¢Creativity
“Unlike material resources, information & knowledge are not lost when you give them away.” Harlan Cleveland
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Internet as Mental Organization
¢ Internet multiplies human capabilities & extends social organization 1000-foldl Global social networking l Global access to informationl Global free communicationl Global transactions
¢ The potential impact on productivity of resources & quality of life is incalculable
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Psychological Resources
¢Rising expectations¢Skills & capacities¢Culture¢Values ¢Trust
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Official Statistik 2012 Jawa Tengah ¢ Analisa kependudukan,
ketenagakerjaan, perekonomian danpertanian
¢ Pemetaan dasar untuk membangunkebijakan publik
¢ Peta perencanaan dan pengambilankeputusan untuk Investasi
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Analisis FaktorKomponen Bahan Makanan
pada Klaster Ketiga
VariabelKomponen
1 2 3Ikan 0,579 -0,186 0,058Daging sapi 0,737 -0,061 0,190Daging unggas 0,650 -0,204 0,315Telur 0,575 0,249 0,162Susu 0,530 -0,109 -0,248Buah-buahan 0,743 0,030 -0,048Sayur-sayuran -0,040 0,892 -0,028Tahu dan tempe -0,113 0,864 0,006Gula pasir 0,269 0,006 0,601Mie intan 0,112 -0,051 0,716Rokok -0,122 0,025 0,574
Rotated Component Matrix
Faktor 1 àfaktor bahanmakanansempurna
Faktor 2 àbahanmakanandasar
Faktor 3 àtambahan
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Sumber: JAWA TENGAH DALAM ANGKA 2012 - BPS, diolah EBC
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Sumber: JAWA TENGAH DALAM ANGKA 2012 - BPS, diolah EBC
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Kelompok I
Cilacap, Brebes, Banyumas, Kota Semarang, Kebumen, Magelang, Klaten, Jepara,Demak, Grobogan, Pemalang, Batang, Tegal
Kelompok III
Blora dan Pati
Kelompok II
Purbalingga, Sragen, Banjarnegara, Sukoharjo, Karanganyar, Pekalongan, Boyolali, Wonogiri, Semarang, Kendal, Purworejo, Temanggung, Wonosobo, Kudus, Rembang, Kota Surakarta
Kelompok IV
Kota Magelang, Kota Salatiga, Kota Pekalongan, Kota Tegal
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Component
1 2 3 4
PERTANIAN -.092 .840 .204 -.255PERTAMBANGAN
DAN GALIAN, LISTRIK, GAS, AIR
.309 .745 -.205 .394
INDUSTRI .396 .087 .147 .733KOSTRUKSI .017 .051 .982 .046
PERDAGANGAN .863 .208 .264 .115KOMUNIKASI .466 .221 .081 -.602KEUANGAN .921 -.139 -.019 .115
JASA .944 .115 -.176 -.003
Sumber : Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasionsl (SAKERNAS), BPS
Faktor 1 : Perdagangan, Keuangan, Jasa (32%)
Faktor 2 : Pertanian, dan Pertambangan Galian, Listrik, Gas, Air (15%)
Faktor 3 : Konstruksi(14%)
Faktor 4 : Industri dan Komunikasi (8%)
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Kelompok I
Cilacap, Brebes, Banyumas, Semarang, Kebumen, Magelang, Pati, Banjarnegara, Wonosobo, Blora, Wonogiri, Purworejo, Karanganyar, Rembang, Boyolali, Kendal, Temanggung, Grobogan, Tegal
Kelompok IV
Sragen, Demak, Kota Surakarta, Kota Magelang, Kota Salatiga,
Kota Pekalongan,Kota Tegal
Kelompok III
Purbalingga, Batang, Kudus, Klaten, Sukoharjo, Pekalongan, Jepara, Kota Semarang
Kelompok II
Pemalang
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VARIABELFAKTOR
1 2 3 4 5APK_SMP .883 .190 -.048 -.006 .109APM_SMP .877 .181 -.067 -.007 .102RasioMuridGuruSD .719 -.188 -.181 -.209 -.282PengeluaranRiilPerKapita .699 .259 .081 .174 .197AHH .568 -.201 .040 .498 -.275RasioMuridGuruSMP -.488 -.214 -.260 .046 .464AMH .094 .875 -.167 -.082 -.020LamaSekolah .623 .703 -.075 .112 -.032KHL -.203 .680 .145 .496 .013RasioMuridSekolahSD .525 .664 -.007 -.074 -.013APM_SD -.040 -.061 .986 .003 -.084APK_SD -.040 -.061 .986 .003 -.084PDRB -.085 -.012 -.032 .871 .029UMK .327 .502 .003 .593 -.234RasioMuridSekolahSMP .176 -.014 -.099 -.094 .871
Analisis Factor Pendidikan
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Analisis Factor Pendidikan
78 % persoalan di Jawa Tengah memiliki 5 faktor penentu
û Faktor 1 : pencapaian angka harapan hidup, besarnya pengeluaran riil per kapita, beberapa faktor pendidikan khususnya tingkat SMP
û Faktor 2 : kebutuhan hidup layak, angka melek huruf dan rata-rata lama sekolah yang berkorelasi positif, rasio murid/guru SD
û Faktor 3 : angka partisipasi tingkat SDû Faktor 4 : keragaman PDRB dan UMK û Faktor 5 : rasio murid/sekolah tingkat SMP
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Cluster Factor 1
Pendapatan riil per kapita lebih rendah, APK dan APM tingkat SMP lebih rendah, Rasio
murid/guru SMP lebih tinggi
Kelompok I
Pendapatan riil per kapita lebih tinggi, APK dan APM tingkat SMP
lebih tinggi, Rasio murid/guru SMP lebih rendah
Kelompok II
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Cluster Factor 2
Kebutuhan hidup layak lebih rendah, Angka melek huruf bervariasi
Kelompok I
Kebutuhan hidup layak lebih tinggi,
Angka melek huruf tinggi
Kelompok II
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Cluster Factor 3
Angka partisipasi kasar dan murni tingkat SD lebih tinggi
Kelompok I
Kelompok II
Angka partisipasi kasar dan murni tingkat SD rendah
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Cluster Factor 4
PDRB tinggi, upah minimum kabupaten bervariasi
Kelompok II
PDRB lebih rendah, upah minimum kabupaten bervariasi
Kelompok I
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Component1 2 3 4 5
Padi_Sawah ,083 ,329 ,590 ,498 ,242Padi_Ladang -,109 ,923 ,211 ,061 ,034
Jagung ,058 ,581 ,221 ,203 ,463Ubi_Kayu ,019 ,842 -,026 -,139 -,079Ubi_Jalar ,841 -,083 -,042 -,102 ,069
Kacang_tanah -,087 ,881 -,117 -,121 -,066
Kacang_Kedele -,149 ,866 ,204 ,184 ,130
Kacang_hijau -,247 ,082 ,371 ,127 ,500Kacang_Merah ,109 -,051 -,201 -,087 ,838Bawang_Merah ,006 -,042 -,037 ,931 -,008Kacang_Panjang ,785 ,037 ,199 -,121 ,063
Kubis ,759 -,069 -,256 ,248 -,009Tomat ,898 -,109 -,038 -,090 ,035
Kangkung -,085 ,066 ,891 -,072 -,089Terung ,914 -,023 ,047 ,039 -,116Bayam ,067 ,048 ,866 -,017 -,002
cabe_Besar ,826 -,082 -,043 ,486 -,090
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Analisa hasil pertanian Jawa Tengah
• Keunggulan yang hampir sama : kacang hijau , kacang merah di banyak kabupaten
• Berikutnya kekhususan bawang merah• Padi dan kangkung• Padi ladang, jagung , ubi kayu, kedelai• Yang paling beragam : hortikultura : kacang
panjang, kubis,terung , bayam, cabe besar danpotensial
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Kelompok I
Cilacap, Sragen, Pati, Demak, Brebes, Wonogiri, Grobogan
Kelompok III
Purbalingga, Karanganyar, Batang, Pekalongan, Sukoharjo, Semarang, Jepara, Purworejo,
Magelang, Klaten, Boyolali, Rembang, Kendal, Banjarnegara, Temanggung, Wonosobo, Kudus
Kelompok II
Banyumas, Pemalang, Tegal, Kebumen, Blora
Kelompok IV
Kota Magelang, Kota Surakarta,
Kota Salatiga, Kota Tegal, Kota
Pekalongan, Kota Semarang
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Kontribusi PDRB berdasarkan harga konstan kabupaten/Kota di Jawa Tengah 2009-2011
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Indonesia Internet Penetration
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
DKI JakartaSulawesi Utara
RiauD.I. Yogyakarta
Kalimantan TimurKep. Riau
Kalimantan TengahSumatera UtaraSumatera Barat
Sumatera SelatanBengkulu
Kep. Bangka BelitungJambi
Jawa TengahJawa Barat
BaliAceh
Jawa TimurMaluku
Sulawesi Selatan Lampung
Sulawesi TengahBanten
GorontaloSulawesi TenggaraKalimantan Selatan
Sulawesi BaratKalimantan Barat
Maluku UtaraPapua Barat
Nusa Tenggara TimurNusa Tenggara Barat
Papua
Internet Penetration = - 72,33 + 1,15 HDI
Indonesia Human Development Index
“Propinsi dengan HDI tinggi akan semakin meningkatkan probabilitaspenduduk untuk mengakses internet…”
Statistically Significant 0,05
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Strategic Areas
Green Innovation
Life Innovation
Asia
Tourism-Oriented Nation
& Local Revitalization
Science and TechnologyIT Oriented
Nation
Employment & Human
Resources
Financial Sector
New Growth Strategy 2010 – 2020
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“Mengangkat Indonesia menjadinegara maju dan merupakankekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun2025 dan 8 besar dunia padatahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhanekonomi tinggi yang inklusif danberkelanjutan”
(Sumber: Master PlanPercepatan dan Perluasan
Pembangunan EkonomiIndonesia 2011– 2025 )
2010PDB ~ US$ 700 MilyarPendapatan/kap US$ 3,000 (2010)Terbesar ke-17 besar dunia
2025PDB: 3,8 – 4,5 TrilyunUS$Pendapatan/kap:13.000 – 16.100 US$Terbesar ke-12 duniaProyeksi KEN Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 14,900 (high income country)
2045PDB ~US$ 16.6 TrilyunPrediksi Pendapatan/kapita ~US$ 46,900Diprediksi menjadi terbesar ke-7 atau ke-8 dunia*)
100 tahun kemerdekaan
Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalamkegiatan pembangunan. Edukasi, Investasi dan Infrastrukturkresnayana yahya,
pengembangan statistik 85
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Expected White Swan?
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Unexpected Black Swan
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THE NORMAL CURVE
All swans are white and the world does not offer any surprises. A rather boring place to live. (Most predictions in the world come from the assumption that all statistics fit the bell-curve model.)
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Black Swan
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Chinese Proverbs
“If you are planning for a year, plant rice.If you are planning for a decade, plant trees.If you are planning for a lifetime, educate
people”
“Hunger is a great teacher”
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“c” change in classified
Thank You
Action
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END OF SLIDESTHANK YOU
Kresnayana Yahya, Drs., M.Sc.Email: [email protected]: http://www.kresnayana.com
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