tanzania election poll report swahili version

1 © 2015 Ipsos.1

Utafiti wa Robo ya Tatu ya mwakawa 2015

IMEANDALIWA NA : IPSOS

IMEANDALIWA KWA AJILI YA KUWASILISHWA KWAVYOMBO VYA HABARI. TAREHE: 24 SEPTEMBA 2015

Utafiti Kuhusu Maoni ya Watanzaniakwa maswala ya Kijamii, Uchumi,Siasa na Tamaduni

© 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary informationand may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

2 © 2015 Ipsos.

YALIYOMO

2

a) Njia ya Utafiti Uliotumiwa Kukusanya Data

b) Umri, asili , tabaka na jinsia ya wahliohojiwa

c) Matatizo makuu yanayowakabili Watanzania

d) Hatua za kutokomeza umaskini

e) Imani ya wahojiwa katika vyama vya kisiasa kuhusu maswala ya sera

f) Kufungumana/Kupendelea vyama vya kisiasa

g) Mgombea wa nafasi ya urais –Mapendeleo kutegemea, Umri, Asili, Tabaka, Jinsia na

elimu

h) Uwezekano wa kubadili mtazamo wa nani wa kumchagua kabla ya October 25

3 © 2015 Ipsos.

Aina/ Fani ya Utafiti iliyotumiwa kukusanya data

Tarehe ya kukusanya data 05 - 22 Septemba 2015

Jumla ya watu waliohojiwa 1,836 (Tanzania Bara tu)

Aina ya methodolojia iliyotumika Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate topopulation size)-Sampuli iliyateuliwa kwa mfumo wa sadfaikizingatia idadi na kuenea kwa watu kama ilivyoripotiwa katikasensa ya 2012

Aina ya watu waliohojiwa Watanzania, wenye umri wa miaka 18 na kuendelea waishiomaeneo ya mjini na vijijini ( Ikijumuisha mikoa 25 ya Tanzaniabara )

Mfumo wa mahojiano Mahojiano ya moja kwa moja nyumbani kwa Wahojiwa

Margin of error +/-2.3% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples) Imani na Uhakikawa tafiti 95% na uwiano au kukosa uwiano +/_2.3%

Lugha ya mahojiano Kingereza , Kiswahili,

4 © 2015 Ipsos.

Uhakiki wa ubora wa Taarifa

• Ipsos inatumia njia mbalimbali kuhakikisha taarifa zinazokusanywa na wahojiwa zina ubora unaotakiwa.

• Msimamizi wa utafiti anakuwepo eneo la mahojiano kuangalia ukusanyaji wa data kwa kiwango kisichopungua 20%

Kwa kipindi chote cha ukusanyaji wa data

• Meneja utafiti nyanjani hutemebelea angalau 15% ya idadi yote ya wahojiwa kuhakiki ya kwamba walihojiwa

• Baada ya mahojiano , taarifa hutumwa moja kwa moja kwa njia ya kidijitali kwenda kwenye mitambo ya Ipsos

ambapo kitengo maalumu kinachohusika na uhakiki wa mahojiano yaliyofanyika kinahakikisha kuwa mahojiano

yalifanyika kwa kuwapigia simu wahojiwa wasiopungua 40% ya wale waliokubali kuhojiwa

• Mfumo huo wa ukusanyaji taarifa kwa kutumia simu huwezesha kuchukua vipimo vya mahali ambapo mahojiano

yalifanyika (GPS - location)

DEMOGRAPHIA

6 © 2015 Ipsos.

MkoaSample Frame statistics

*Weighted data %Population census 2012 Adults

(18 yrs +) %

Arusha 74 4% 874,975 4%

Dar es Salaam 229 12% 2,715,888 12%

Dodoma 86 5% 1,014,173 5%

Geita 63 3% 748,609 3%

Iringa 41 2% 485,597 2%

Kagera 95 5% 1,130,783 5%

Katavi 21 1% 251,099 1%

Kigoma 81 4% 955,816 4%

Kilimanjaro 76 4% 903,539 4%

Lindi 40 2% 479,914 2%

Manyara 56 3% 667,616 3%

Mara 65 4% 773,588 4%

Mbeya 115 6% 1,368,074 6%

Morogoro 99 5% 1,171,172 5%

Mtwara 60 3% 716,083 3%

Mwanza 110 6% 1,299,896 6%

Njombe 31 2% 362,735 2%

Pwani 50 3% 597,136 3%

Rukwa 37 2% 437,820 2%

Ruvuma 59 3% 703,739 3%

Shinyanga 60 3% 705,925 3%

Simiyu 56 3% 669,069 3%

Singida 55 3% 647,206 3%

Tabora 88 5% 1,040,968 5%

Tanga 88 5% 1,037,415 5%

Idadi ya wahojiwa kwa kila mkoa

7 © 2015 Ipsos.

Sampuli ya utafiti

33%

67%

Mjini / Kijini

Kijijini

Mjini47%

53%

Jinsia

Kike

Kiume

25.70%

28.10%

19.30%

26.80%

Umri

45+

35 - 44

25 - 34

18 - 24

Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote n=1836

8 © 2015 Ipsos.

Kiwango cha juu cha elimu na ajira

7%

9%

53%

9%

17%

2%

1%

2%

1%

Wasiokwenda shule kabisa

Elimu ya msingi

Waliomaliza elimu ya msingi

Elimu ya sekondari

Waliomaliza elimu ya sekondari

Elimu ya ufundi baada ya sekondari

Chuo kikuu

Waliohitimu chuo kikuu

Digrii ya pili (Masters) 8%

5%

4%

2%

5%

27%

4%

2%

1%

41%

3%

Mama wa nyumbani

Walioajiriwa sekta rasmi

Walioajiriwa sekta isiyo rasmi

Wastaafu

Wanafunzi

Waliojiajiri /wenye biashara binafsi

Wasioajiriwa /wanatafuta kazi

Wasioajiriwa /hawatafuti kazi

Vibarua

Wakulima

Wengineo


9 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Kwa ujumla, ni yapi unaweza sema ndiyo matatizo makuuyanayoikabili Tanzania kwa sasa?”Majibu mengi

40%

36%

35%

34%

29%

29%

22%

17%

3%

3%

3%

Bei ya chakula, Gharama za maisha, nishati, umaskini

Afya

Chakula/Njaa/Kilimo

Maji

Elimu

Umeme, Barabara, Makazi

Ukosefu wa ajira

Rushwa

Taasisi za siasa

Mabadiliko ya tabia ya nchi/Mazingira

Haki za binadamu


10 © 2015 Ipsos.

Mitazamo juu ya umaskini;“Je kuna umaskini wowote kwenye eneo hili?”

93% 89%95%

5% 7% 4%0% 1% 0%1% 3% 1%

JUMLA MJINI KIJIJINI

NDIYO HAPANA HAKUNA JIBU SIJUI


11 © 2015 Ipsos.

Mitazamo Kuhusu Umaskini;“Je ni mambo yapii makuu yanaweza kufanyika ili kupunguzaumaskini katika eneo unaloishi?”Majibu mengi

64%

41%

38%

35%

33%

13%

5%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Miundombinu(Barabara,Maji, Umeme)

Afya

Elimu

Kilimo/Ufugaji

Nafasi za ajira

Uongozi (Uzuiaji wa rushwa , Sera,Uongozi bora)

Upatikanaji wa mikopo

Ulinzi

Uzazi wa mpango

Uanzishwaji wa miradi kuboresha maisha ya wananchi

Upatikanaji wa masoko na maeneo ya biashara

Upangaji mzuri wa bei za mazao kwa wakulima

Kuboresha mitandao ya mawasiliano


IMANI KATIKA UTEKELEZAJIWA VYAMA VYA SIASA

13 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Ni kwa kiasi kipi unakiamini Chadema/CCM katikakushughulikia maswala yafuatayo

42%

38%

39%

36%

38%

26%

44%

28%

27%

27%

25%

25%

27%

26%

Kusimamia uchumi

Kusimamia afya

Kusimamia elimu

Kusimamia usambazaji wa maji

Kusimamia nishati ya umeme

Kusimamia/Kupunguza rushwa

Kusimamia bara bara na miundo mbinu

% Waliosema wanaamini kabisa / Wanaamini sana

Chadema CCM


14 © 2015 Ipsos.

Kiwango cha wale ambao wamefanya maamuzi juu ya chamacha siasa na nafasi ya uraisi

Hawajafanya maamuzi

22%

Waliosemawanashabiki

a auhawashabiki

i chamachochotecha siasa,

78%

Ambao wanashabikia/hawashabikiichama chochote cha siasa

Wasio namsimamowa kupiga

au kutopigakura /

Hakuna jibu,27%

Wenyemsaimanowa kupigaau kutopigakura , 73%

Ambao wameamua/hawajaamua naniwa kumpigia kura

Kielelezo: Wahojiwa wote. Jumla =1836

15 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Ni chama kipi cha siasa ambacho unadhani upokaribu nacho zaidi, kama kipo?”

60%

29%

3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4%

Kielelezo “ Walosema wanaunga au hawaungi chama chochote ” Jumla= 1442

16 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Ni chama kipi cha kisiasa ambacho unadhani upo karibu nachozaidi, kama kipo?”Wanaoshabikia vyama viwili vikuu . Mjini / Kijijini / Jinsia

60%

51%

69%

54%

63%

29%37%

21%30% 28%

Jumla Wanaume Wanawake Mjini Kijijini

CCM CHADEMA

Kielelezo: Kwa wanaoshabikia CCM au Chadema – jumla =1283”

17 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Ni chama kipi cha siasa ambacho unadhani upo karibu nachozaidi, kama kipo?”Wanaoshabikia vyama vikuu viwili - Umri

60%

52%56%

61%

73%

29%35% 35%

29%

16%

Jumla 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+

CCM CHADEMA

Kieleiezo : Wale wanaoshabikia CCM au Chadema. Jumla =1,283

MGOMBEA URAISUNAYEMPENDELEA

19 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo, ni mgombea yupiungemchagua kwa nafasi ya urais?”

61.6%

30.8%

0.3%7.3%

DR. John PombeMagufuli

Edward Lowassa Anna Mugwira Sitomchagua yeyote

Kielelezo: Wale ambao wameshaamua juu ya nani watamchagua Jumla =1338)

20 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo, ni mgombea yupiungemchagua kwa nafasi ya uraisi?”(Jinsia – Mjini/Vijijini)

61.6%56.0%

66.6%59.7% 62.5%

30.8%38.9%

23.7%31.9% 30.3%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%7.3% 4.8%

9.5% 7.7% 7.1%

Jumla Wanaume Wanawake Mjini Kijijini

DR. John Pombe Magufuli Edward Lowassa

Anna Mugwira Sitompigia kura mtu yeyote

Kielelezo: Wale ambao wameshaamua juu ya nani watamchagua Jumla =1338)

21 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Kama uchaguzi ungefanyika leo, ni mgombea yupi ungemchaguakwa nafasi ya uraisi?”Umri

61.6%54.9% 57.4%

61.9%

73.5%

30.8%38.7% 34.5% 32.0%

17.2%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%7.3% 6.2% 7.8% 5.8% 9.0%

Jumla 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45+

Dr. John Pombe Magufuli Edward Lowassa

Anna Mugwira Sitompigia kura mtu yeyote

Kielelezo: Wale ambao wameshaamua juu ya nani watamchagua jumla =1338)

22 © 2015 Ipsos.

“Kuna uwezekano gani wa kuwa utabadilisha mawazo juu yanani wa kumchagua kati ya leo na siku ya uchaguzi?” Unawezasema ...?”

70%

6%

4%

7%

11%

2%

1%

Hakuna uwezekano

Hakuna uwezekano kwa kiasi Fulani

Wastani

Kuna uwezekano kwa kiasi Fulani

Uwezekano mkubwa

Sijui

Sina jibu

Kielelezo: Wale ambao wamefanya maamuzi juu ya nani wa kumpigia kura Jumla =1338)

23 © 2015 Ipsos.

Contacts

Charles MakauIpsos Tanzania

[email protected]

AGGREY ORIWOIpsos East Africa Cluster

[email protected]

twitter.com/ipsostanzaniafacebook.com/ipsostanzaniawww.ipsos.com

DR TOM WOLFResearch Analyst

[email protected]

24 © 2015 Ipsos.

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tanzania election poll report swahili version

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