tanzania: population, reproductive health, and development
TRANSCRIPT
TanzaniaTanzania
PopulationPopulation Reproductive HealthReproductive Health
amp Developmentamp Development Photo credits IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman and USAID
Hosted by the GovernmentHosted by the Government
Population PlanningPopulation Planning SectionSection
PresidentPresidentrsquorsquos Offices Office Planning CommissionPlanning Commission
2
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
3
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
4
Tanzania Development Vision 2025Tanzania Development Vision 2025
To achieve a highTo achieve a high--quality livelihood for thequality livelihood for the people attain good governance throughpeople attain good governance through the rule of law and develop a strong andthe rule of law and develop a strong and
competitive economycompetitive economy
5
What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Tanzania to achieve its national vision in coming decades
6
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
7
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Hosted by the GovernmentHosted by the Government
Population PlanningPopulation Planning SectionSection
PresidentPresidentrsquorsquos Offices Office Planning CommissionPlanning Commission
2
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
3
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
4
Tanzania Development Vision 2025Tanzania Development Vision 2025
To achieve a highTo achieve a high--quality livelihood for thequality livelihood for the people attain good governance throughpeople attain good governance through the rule of law and develop a strong andthe rule of law and develop a strong and
competitive economycompetitive economy
5
What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Tanzania to achieve its national vision in coming decades
6
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
7
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
3
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
4
Tanzania Development Vision 2025Tanzania Development Vision 2025
To achieve a highTo achieve a high--quality livelihood for thequality livelihood for the people attain good governance throughpeople attain good governance through the rule of law and develop a strong andthe rule of law and develop a strong and
competitive economycompetitive economy
5
What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Tanzania to achieve its national vision in coming decades
6
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
7
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
4
Tanzania Development Vision 2025Tanzania Development Vision 2025
To achieve a highTo achieve a high--quality livelihood for thequality livelihood for the people attain good governance throughpeople attain good governance through the rule of law and develop a strong andthe rule of law and develop a strong and
competitive economycompetitive economy
5
What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Tanzania to achieve its national vision in coming decades
6
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
7
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Tanzania Development Vision 2025Tanzania Development Vision 2025
To achieve a highTo achieve a high--quality livelihood for thequality livelihood for the people attain good governance throughpeople attain good governance through the rule of law and develop a strong andthe rule of law and develop a strong and
competitive economycompetitive economy
5
What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Tanzania to achieve its national vision in coming decades
6
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
7
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Tanzania to achieve its national vision in coming decades
6
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
7
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
7
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Tanzania Mainland Population 2002Tanzania Mainland Population 2002
335 Million335 Million
8
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Tanzania Mainland Actual amp Projected Population 1948ndash2005
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
40 363 335
30 225
20 170 120
9110 75
0 1948 1957 1967 1978 1988 2002 2005
Year 9
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
10
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Tanzania continues to have high fertility Tanzania continues to have high fertility
63 58 56 57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fert
ility
rate
(ave
rage
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 11
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low Modern contraceptive use has risen slowly and is still relatively low
7 13
17 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mod
ern
cont
race
ptiv
e us
e(
mar
ried
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e)
1991ndash92 1996 1999 2004ndash05
Year 12
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
13
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
14
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Child dependants under the age of 15
Percent of the population
Tanzania has a young populationTanzania has a young population
15
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Age
in y
ears
80 + 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14
5-9 0-4
Male Female
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent of the population
Child dependants under the age of 15
Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years Todayrsquos children will soon be in their reproductive years
16
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Without AIDS With AIDS 954
701 866
645
241 363
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS The Tanzanian population continues to grow rapidly despite HIV and AIDS
17
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Projections use different assumptions about fertility Projections use different assumptions about fertility
Fert
ility
rate
(avg
num
ber o
f chi
ldre
n pe
r wom
an) 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
57 50
High fertility Declining fertility
22
Year 18
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility Future population growth will be largely determined by what happens to fertility
19
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
20
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Recent analyses have summarizedRecent analyses have summarized statestate--ofof--thethe--art thinking onart thinking on
relationships between populationrelationships between populationgrowth and economic development growth and economic development
21
Resultsofanalyses
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Two Major Messages Two Major Messages
1) Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the rate of economic growth
2) Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families
Photo credit USAID M Douglas
Source Population Matters Demographic Change Economic Growth and Poverty in the Developing World
22
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
developing countries
Slower population growthSlower population growthhas encouraged overallhas encouraged overall economic growth ineconomic growth in
developing countries
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
23
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
24
Continued high rates ofContinued high rates of population growth have notpopulation growth have not contributed to economiccontributed to economic growth or poverty alleviationgrowth or poverty alleviation in high fertility Africanin high fertility African countries countries
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
We need to learn from theWe need to learn from the East Asian countries theEast Asian countries the best ways of achieving fastbest ways of achieving fast economic growtheconomic growth
25
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid developmentThe Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development
26
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation
GD
P Pe
r C
apita
(c
onst
ant 2
000
US
$)
1600 1427 1400
1200 9501000 798
800 613537 546600 404332400
200
0
1960 1965 1970 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Source World Bank Development Indicators
27
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Thai fertility moved from high to low levels Thai fertility moved from high to low levels
64 62 55
45
35 27
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Fert
ility
rat
e(a
vg n
umbe
r of c
hild
ren
per w
oman
)
Source World Bank Development Indicators
28
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic ldquomiraclerdquo
Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers
More and better educational opportunities
More investment in modern agriculture
Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios
29
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Tanzania aspires to become aTanzania aspires to become astrong middlestrong middle--income economyincome economy
in Africa in Africa
30
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
31
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
32
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
Population affects social andeconomic development in Tanzania
HealthEducation
EnvironmentThe Economy Agriculture
Urbanization
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
100
80
60
40
20
0
High fertility Declining fertility 866
645
660
363 573
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
Population Projections with Different Fertility Assumptions
33
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
TanzaniaTanzania Education SectorEducation Sector
Photo credit Worldviewimagescom 34
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
75
122
160
101 101
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
scho
ol s
tude
nts
(in m
illio
ns)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 35
Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035Primary School Enrollment 2005ndash2035
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035Primary Teachers Required 2005ndash2035
135
251
356
208 225
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Num
ber o
f prim
ary
teac
hers
(i
n th
ousa
nds)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 36
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Num
ber
of p
rim
ary
scho
ols
(in th
ousa
nds)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
143
400
276 253
228
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035Primary Schools Required 2005ndash2035
37
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Prim
ary
scho
ol e
duca
tion
expe
nditu
res
(in b
illion
s of
Tsh
s)
800 720
700
600
500
Cumulative savings Tshs23
trillion
High fertility
339
549
454 Declining fertility
456
400
300
200
100
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 38
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
Expenditures on Primary School Education 2005ndash2035 (Tshs billions)
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
TanzaniaTanzania Health SectorHealth Sector
Photo credit IFAD Christine Nesbitt 39
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Num
ber o
f hea
lth d
ispe
nsar
ies
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
4530
10740
17310
9540
13200
High fertility Declining fertility
40
Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035Health Dispensaries Required 2005ndash2035
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Nurses Required 2005ndash2035Nurses Required 2005ndash2035
239
425
570
377 435
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Num
ber
of n
urse
s(in
thou
sand
s)
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Ann
ual h
ealth
exp
endi
ture
s(in
milli
ons
of U
S$)
1200
305
High fertility
774
687
Declining fertility
1039 CumulativeCumulative1000 savingssavings US$22 billionUS$22 billion800 792
600
400
200
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 42
Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035Annual Health Expenditures 2005ndash2035
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Birth spacing improves child healthBirth spacing improves child health
72 55 62
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
(infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 10
00 li
ve b
irths
)
lt2 years 2ndash3 years 3ndash4 years 4 years +
Previous birth interval 43
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Perc
enta
ge w
ho a
re m
othe
rs
or p
regn
ant f
or fi
rst t
ime
60 Pregnant with first child 52 Had a live birth50
34 40
30 24
20
11 10
4
0
15 16 17 18 19
Age of female adolescent in years
Adolescent childbearing is high Adolescent childbearing is high
44
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
TanzaniaTanzania UrbanizationUrbanization
Photo credit copy 2005 Alfredo L Fort Courtesy of Photoshare
45
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
Historic Growth of the Urban Population 1967ndash2002
79
08
24
42
0
2
4
6
8
Urb
an p
opul
atio
n(in
mill
ions
)
1967 1978 1988 2002
Year 46
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035Size of the urban population 2005ndash2035
238
79
389
211
297
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
(in m
illion
s)
High fertility
Declining fertility
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 47
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
N
ew u
rban
hou
sing
uni
ts(in
mill
ions
)
10 High fertility Declining fertility
8 70
6 48
35 354 28 20
2
0
2005ndash2025 2025ndash2035 2005ndash2035
Time period
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
New Urban Housing Units Required 2005ndash2035
48
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
TanzaniaTanzania Economy ampEconomy ampLabor ForceLabor Force
Photo credit copy European Community
49
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005Historic GDP and GDP Per Capita 1967ndash2005A
vera
ge a
nnua
l per
cent
gro
wth
10 GDP GDP per capita
8 68
6 45 41
4 3229 18
2
01-04 0
1967ndash1985 1986ndash1993 1994ndash2004 2005
Time period 50
-2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
GD
P pe
r cap
ita (T
shs
000s
)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
360
1469
1925 High fertility Declining fertility
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2005ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
51
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
US$826minimum threshold of middle-income economy status
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 52
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes an 8 economic growth rate per annum)
331
1354
841
1775
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 53
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035(assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
Projected GDP per capita 2004ndash2035 (assumes a 6 economic growth rate per annum)
817 612
1071
331
689
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
GD
P pe
r cap
ita(in
US
$ )
High fertility Declining fertility
US$826
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 54
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Composition of the Labor ForceComposition of the Labor Force
AgricultureAgriculture
810810
Informal 90
Private Sector 40
Housework 36 Public Sector 24
55
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
New
jobs
requ
ired
(in th
ousa
nds)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
High fertility Declining fertility 1468
1048
531 822 812
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 56
Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035Annual New Job Requirements 2005ndash2035
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
TanzaniaTanzania
Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
Photo credits USAID and IFAD Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman
57
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Modernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian visionModernization of agriculture is a key component of the Tanzanian vision
Photo credit USAID W CreightonDAI
58
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Environmental Constraints
Low soil suitability
Erratic rainfall and cold stress risk
Steep slopes and mountains
Severe and very severe land degradation
Low to medium climatic production potential
High climatic production potential
Land UseLand Use
59
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Rapid population growth works against modernization Rapid population growth works against modernization
Photo credit copy D
an L Perlman Ecolibraryorg
High rate of population growth has resultedin overexploitation deforestation erosionloss of soil fertility and a fall in productivity
60
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Food Production Required 2004ndash2035Food Production Required 2004ndash2035
132
241
324
214 247
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Food
pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 61
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035Maize Production Required 2004ndash2035
43
78
105
69 80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
High fertility Declining fertility
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 62
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
TanzaniaTanzania EnvironmentEnvironment
Photo credit USAID R Strickland
63
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035Woodfuel Consumption 2005ndash2035
841
1128
747 861
474
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Woo
dfue
l con
sum
ptio
n(m
illio
n m
3 )
High fertility Declining fertility
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year 64
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
OutlineOutline
I The Tanzanian Vision II Population Characteristics and
Projections III Population Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction IV Impact of Rapid Population Growth on
Social and Economic Development
V Policy Response
65
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Fertility RateFertility Rate
Tanzaniarsquos fertility rate is 57 children per woman
Photo credit USAID
66
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
A large unmet need for family planning already exists A large unmet need for family planning already exists
Unmet need 22
22 of currently married women of reproductive age want to space or limit births but are not using contraception
67
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
To satisfy unmet need a realisticstrategy is to ensure that allTanzanian couples who want tospace or limit their births haveaccess to high-qualityreproductive health servicesincluding a range of familyplanning methods consistentlyavailable and accessible
Photo Credit IFAD Robert Grossman
68
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Improving access to and use of quality family planning services hellip
hellip will help satisfy unmet need hellip
hellip resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growthhellip
hellip thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
69
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained leadership commitment and support Improved access to high-quality services Increased private sector participation Guaranteed availability of contraceptive
commodities
70
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Components of an Effective Unmet Need Strategy
Sustained donor support Increased civil societyfaith-based participation
Consistent messages and support from opinion leaders Increased information education and
communication (IEC) for potential users
71
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
Good demographicoutcomes depend on goodpolicies Successful action depends above all onempowering individualsand couples to make freechoices
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
72
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
The big question for national leaders andThe big question for national leaders anddecisionmakersdecisionmakers is whether to make theis whether to make the
necessary changes in policy and practice necessary changes in policy and practice
Source UNPFA State of World Population 2002
73
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74
AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The RAPID analysis and presentation was conducted with technical and financial assistance from the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Task Order 1 which is implemented by the Futures Group
International in collaboration with the Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA) White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) and Futures Institute
The full report is available at httpwwwhealthpolicyinitiativecomPublicationsDocuments
348_1_Tanzania_RAPID_English_accpdf
74