targeting crime prevention to reduce offending identifying communities that generate chronic and...
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Targeting Crime Prevention to Reduce Offending
Identifying communities that generate chronic and costly offending
Anna Stewart
Troy Allard
April Chrzanowski
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Outline
Why we did this study? How we did the study? What we found? What it means?
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
What we know from previous research? Small number of offenders responsible
» For a large amount of crime
We know that these chronic offenders» Start offending young» Offend frequently» Offend seriously» End up in prison» Often are Indigenous Australians» Mainly male
We have also done work costing offending trajectories» identifying lifetime costs of offending» Found very different costs for different offenders» Small no of offenders account for large amount of costs
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Why we did this this study?
Major limitation with this work is that we can not identify these chronic offenders early on
So » Thought we would examine where these offenders came from» Increasing interest in place based rather than individual based
targeting of crime prevention interventions» Most of this research examines where the crimes are » We were interested in examining where the offenders are
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Research Questions
How do we identify chronic offenders?
What is the cost of these chronic offenders?
Which communities generated chronic offenders?
Which communities bear the cost of chronic offending?
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
How we did the study?
Data: 1990 Queensland Longitudinal Database » Linked administrative data» Had contact with
Police diversion (cautioning and youth justice conference) Youth justice courts Adult courts
» Individual offending profiles between 10 - 20 years old
» 14,171 offenders 70.2% male 13.4% Indigenous Australian 33,000 events (police caution, conference or court
finalisation) 71,000 offences
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
How we did the study?
Three analyses: Trajectory analysis
» How do we identify chronic offenders ?
Costing analysis» What is the cost of these chronic offenders?
Place based analysis» Which communities generated chronic offenders?» Which communities bear the cost of chronic offending?
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
How do we identify chronic offenders?
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice
How do we identify chronic offenders?
Two low offending trajectories » 84% of offenders» 33% offences» Average 2 offences per individual (SD = 1.4)» 10% Indigenous Australian
Three high (chronic) offending trajectories» 16% offenders (2,200)» 67% offences» Average 21 offences (SD = 27.9)» 34% Indigenous Australian
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
What is the cost of these chronic offenders?
Criminal Justice costs» Transactional and Institutional cost analysis
Social and economic costs» Rollings (2008) AIC report 12 offence categories
Medical costs Costs of property loss damage Cost of lost output Intangible costs (pain and suffering)
Calculated » average cost for individuals » total cost of low and high offending trajectories
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Criminal Justice Costs
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice
What is the cost of these chronic offenders?
Total cost of the 1990 cohort (10-20 years) - $386 million
Low offending trajectories » 84% of offenders» 30% of total cost ($117 million)» $9,800 average per individual
High (chronic) offending trajectories» 16% offenders» 70% of total cost ($269 million)» $120,000 average per individual
Max $4 million
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Are these offenders geographically randomly distributed?
Identified each offenders postal area of first offence (329 of 432)
Examined two questions» Which communities (postal area) generated chronic offenders?
Controlled for population size (16 year olds)
» Which communities (postal area) bear the cost of chronic offending? Did not control for population size
For each question examined the top 10% of postal areas» Index of Relative Disadvantage (IRSD)» Australian Standard Geographical Classification – Remoteness
Areas
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Which communities generated chronic offenders?
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Which communities generated chronic offenders?
Remote and very remote Queensland High levels of socio-economic disadvantage High populations of young Indigenous people
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Which communities bear the cost of chronic offending?
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
Which communities bear the cost of chronic offending
Criminal justice costs and wider social and economic costs 10% of postal areas accounted for 40% of costs Cost between $2.3 m and $14.0m Regional Queensland
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013
So what does it all mean? Chronic offenders are not randomly distributed Cost of chronic offenders and chronic offending not equally distributed
Need to geographically target evidence based crime prevention interventions» Early intervention programs to prevent initiation of offending» Holistic treatment programs to prevent reoffending
expensive (eg Functional Family therapy)» Need to ensure these programs are delivered in areas of high need» Community programs» Situational prevention programs
Challenges» Remote and regional areas» High Indigenous populations
Applied Research in Crime and Justice 2013