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CMP 541.30
Target Price 612.00
ISIN: INE081A01012
AUGUST 16th
2014
TATA STEEL LIMITED
Result Update (PARENT BASIS): Q1 FY15
BUYBUYBUYBUY
Index Details
Stock Data
Sector Iron & Steel
BSE Code 500470
Face Value 10.00
52wk. High / Low (Rs.) 578.60/223.70
Volume (2wk. Avg. Q.) 904000
Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) 525824.23
Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated)
YEARS FY14A FY15E FY16E
Net Sales 417110.30 462158.21 508374.03
EBITDA 136045.40 151586.75 169250.35
Net Profit 64121.90 78809.55 85034.35
EPS 66.01 81.13 87.54
P/E 8.20 6.67 6.18
Shareholding Pattern (%)
1 Year Comparative Graph
TATA STEEL LIMITED BSE SENSEX
SYNOPSIS
Tata Steel Ltd is among the top ten global steel
companies with an annual crude steel capacity of over
29 mtpa. It is one of the world's most geographically-
diversified steel producers.
Total revenue of the company increased by 10.71%
from Rs. 94553.90 million for the quarter ended June
30, 2013 to Rs. 104682.60 million for the quarter
ended, June 30, 2014.
In Standalone basis, Net profit ramps up by 67.24%
and stood at Rs. 22679.80 million in Q1 FY15 against
Rs. 13561.10 million in Q1 FY14.
For Q1 FY15, Profits included exceptional gains of Rs.
7880.00 million from the sale of the stake in the
Dhamra Port Company Limited.,
For Q1 FY15, Earnings before Interest, tax, and Dep
increased by 14.13% to Rs. 33993.60 million from Rs.
29785.40 million for the Q1 FY14.
The project work for setting up a 3 million tonnes per
annum greenfield steel project in Odisha in first phase
is on in full swing and is expected to commission by
Financial Year 2014-15.
Sales of Automotive Steel and Automotive Industry
increased by 16% & 11% respectively over the last
year.
Hot metal and crude steel production reached 2.53
million tonnes and 2.33 million tonnes respectively in
Q1 FY’15 while saleable steel production increased to
2.25 million tonnes.
Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to
grow at a CAGR of 10% and 19% over 2013 to 2016E
respectively.
PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND
Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)
Tata Steel Ltd 541.30 525824.23 66.01 8.20 0.86 100.00
SAIL Ltd 84.55 349235.90 6.53 12.95 0.80 20.20
JSW Steel Ltd 1274.75 208135.20 97.49 13.08 1.31 110.00
Jindal Steel Ltd 285.65 261342.30 14.86 19.22 2.00 150.00
Recommendation & Analysis - ‘BUY’
For the quarter ended 30th June 2014, the company’s total Income in Standalone basis registered 10.54%
increase to Rs. 106117.60 million from Rs. 95996.00 million for the quarter ended 30th June, 2013. Net profit
ramps up by 67.24% at Rs. 22679.80 million in Q1 FY15 against Rs. 13561.10 million in Q1 FY14. In Q1 FY15,
Operating profit or EBIDTA has increased by 14.13% to Rs. 33993.60 million from Rs. 29785.40 million in the
corresponding quarter of previous year. The EBITDA margin improved by 56 basis points compared to the
previous year. Deliveries in Q1 FY’15 increased to 2.1 million tonnes versus 2 million tonnes in Q1 FY’14. The
new CGL#3 and CAPL lines have started commercial operations while the Coke Oven Battery #11 fully ramped
up during the quarter.
Tata Steel Ltd continued to increase its deliveries to target segments in the domestic markets, with exports
constituting barely 1% of total sales in Q1 FY15. Sales of Automotive Steel and Automotive Industry increased by
16% & 11% respectively over the last year and the share of value added and high-end products increased
further. The company made further inroads in the Branded Products, Retail and Solutions segment with sales in
Q1 FY15 increasing by 12% over Q1 FY14. Sales to Industrial Products, Projects and Exports remained steady
with increases in the share of value added products.
After the general elections and the new government has been clearly communicating its intentions to bring the
economy back to the growth path. Government's thrust on development of core industries like housing and
infrastructure should boost steel demand in the coming quarters. The company continues to grow its delivery
volumes with enrichment of the overall product mix. During the quarter, the company has started commercial
operations of its continuous annealing line and a new galvanising line. In addition, the Coke Oven Battery#11 has
been commissioned and the facility was ramped up in record time. Tata Steel has a strong track record of
successful implementation of large and complex projects across the steel sector. Outlook remains sluggish due to
seasonal factors; macro conditions are expected to improve in H2. Over 2013-2016E, we expect the company to
post a CAGR of 10% and 19% in its top-line and bottom-line respectively. Hence, we recommend ‘BUY’ for
‘TATA STEEL LTD’ with a target price of Rs.612.00 on the stock.
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (PARENT BASIS)
Results updates- Q1 FY15,
Tata Steel is India’s largest private sector steelmaker
by revenue. It has a production capacity of about 10
MT per annum in Jamshedpur and about 18 Mt in
Europe. The company maintains positive earnings
momentum in the First quarter ended and has
reported its financial results for the quarter ended
30th JUNE, 2014.
The company has achieved a turnover of Rs. 104682.60 million for the 1st quarter of the current year 2014-15 as
against Rs. 94553.90 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company has reported an
EBITDA of Rs. 33993.60 million an increased by 14.13% in Q1 FY15. Net profit of Rs. 22679.80 million for the 1st
quarter of FY15 against Rs. 13561.10 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Profits included
exceptional gains of Rs. 7880.00 million from the sale of the stake in The Dhamra Port Company Limited. For Q1
FY15, the company has reported an EPS of Rs. 23.35 as against an EPS of Rs. 13.96 in the corresponding quarter
of the previous year.
Break up of Expenditure:
During the quarter, total Expenditure rose by 9 per cent mainly on account of Employee benefits Expenses by
13%, Freight & Handling charges by 9%, Depreciation & Amortization Expenses by 7%. Whereas Raw material
consumed and Purchase of power by 11% respectively along with other expenditure 8% are the primary
attribute for the growth of expenditure. Total expenditure in Q1 FY15 stood to Rs. 77056.60 million as against Rs.
70806.40 million in Q1 FY14.
Break up of Expenditure Rs. In millions
Q1 FY15 Q1 FY14
Purchases of finished Steel &
Other Products 679.20 1430.70
Raw Materials consumed 25639.90 23055.10
Employee benefits expense 11302.60 10027.80
Purchase of Power 7212.80 6525.30
Freight and Handling charges 6909.20 6348.20
Depreciation and Amortisation 4932.60 4595.80
Other expenses 23814.90 22117.90
Rs. In millions JUNE-14 JUNE-13 % Change
Net Sales 104682.60 94553.90 10.71
PAT 22679.80 13561.10 67.24
EPS 23.35 13.96 67.24
EBITDA 33993.60 29785.40 14.13
Segment Revenue
Latest Updates
• The Company, through its Singapore based wholly owned subsidiary, ABJA Investment Co. Pte. Ltd. Has
issued US$ 500 million 4.85% Unsecured Bonds due 2020 and US$ 1,000 million 5.95% Unsecured Bonds
due 2024 which are listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
• Tata Steel has signed a series of contracts with Subsea 7 - one of the world's leading contractors in
engineering, construction and subsea services to the offshore industry - to supply undersea pipes to four
separate North Sea projects.
• During the quarter, the Company divested its entire stake in its joint venture The Dhamra Port Company
Limited (DPCL) to Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited.
• Tata Steel has developed an innovative new product for automotive manufacturers in response to market
requirements for stronger and lighter steels.
COMPANY PROFILE
Tata Steel Limited was Established in 1907 as Asia's first integrated private sector steel company, Tata Steel
Group is among the top-ten global steel companies with an annual crude steel capacity of over 29 million tonnes
per annum (mtpa). It is now the world's second-most geographically-diversified steel producer, with operations
in 26 countries and a commercial presence in over 50 countries. The Group’s vision is to be the world’s steel
industry benchmark through the excellence of its people, its innovative approach and overall conduct.
Underpinning this vision is a performance culture committed to aspiration targets, safety and social
responsibility, continuous improvement, openness and transparency.
The Tata Steel group saw production of 27.37 million tonnes of steel in the Financial Year 2013-14. The first
phase of the greenfield steel project at Kalinganagar which boasts of a Blast Furnace of 4330 cum capacity that
will roll out high end flat products, is currently under implementation.
The new facilities of the 2.9 million tonnes per annum brown field expansion at Jamshedpur reached their full
capacity in the second half of Financial Year 2013-14 which helped register the best-ever performance in Hot
Metal, Crude Steel, Saleable Steel production and total sales. Segments like LPG witnessed three times market
share increase from 7% in Financial Year 2012-13 to 23% in Financial Year 2013-14.
In 2008, Tata Steel India became the first integrated steel plant in the world, outside Japan, to be awarded the
Deming Application Prize 2008 for excellence in Total Quality Management. In 2012, Tata Steel became the first
integrated steel company in the world to win the Deming Grand Prize 2012 instituted by the Japanese Union of
Scientists and Engineers.
Tata Steel’s larger production facilities include those in India, the UK, the Netherlands, Thailand, Singapore, China
and Australia. Operating companies within the Group include Tata Steel Limited (India), Tata Steel Europe
Limited (formerly Corus), NatSteel, and Tata Steel Thailand (formerly Millennium Steel).
Global Network
The Tata Steel Group has a balanced global presence in over 50 developed European and fast growing Asian
countries, with manufacturing operations in 26 countries and various ongoing projects in different parts of the
world. It is the first integrated steel plant in Asia and the world's second most geographically diversified steel
producer.
• Asia
• Africa
• Australia
• North America
• Europe
Key Business Area
Steel is an essential material used in many industries – it’s the backbone to countless products, structures and
services that shape the everyday lives of people throughout the world. Tata Steel serves customers in all the
major market sectors globally, and recognises that each sector, such as automotive or construction or packaging,
requires different solutions to meet its specific needs.
� Automotive � Construction
� Consumer Goods
� Engineering
� Packaging
� Lifting and Excavating
� Energy and Power
� Aerospace
� Shipbuilding
� Rail
� Defence and Security
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (PARENT BASIS) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)
Balance Sheet as at March31, 2013 -2016E
TATA STEEL LIMITED 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E
I. EQUITY AND LIABILITIES:
A) Shareholders’ Funds:
a) Share Capital 9714.10 9714.10 9714.10 9714.10
b) Reserves and Surplus 542382.70 601765.80 661942.38 721517.19
Sub-Total Net worth 552096.80 611479.90 671656.48 731231.29
B) Hybrid Perpetual Securities 22750.00 22750.00 22750.00 22750.00
C) Non-Current Liabilities:
a) Long-term borrowings 235655.70 238080.90 242366.36 244790.02
b) Deferred Tax Liabilities [Net] 18437.40 20389.80 22428.78 24223.08
c) Other Long Term Liabilities 3808.70 9835.20 13572.58 17644.35
d) Long Term Provisions 21134.20 19050.50 16764.44 17267.37
Sub-Total Non-Current Liabilities 279036.00 287356.40 295132.15 303924.82
D) Current Liabilities:
a) Short-term borrowings 709.40 436.90 275.25 192.67
b) Trade Payables 63699.10 82721.10 103401.38 128217.71
c) Other Current Liabilities 85035.40 86631.70 87498.02 88810.49
d) Short Term Provisions 15442.60 19028.10 23214.28 26696.42
Sub-Total Current Liabilities 164886.50 188817.80 214388.92 243917.29
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES (A+B+C+D) 1018769.30 1110404.10 1203927.55 1301823.41
II. ASSETS:
E) Non-Current Assets:
Fixed Assets
i. Tangible Assets 246505.40 240644.30 247863.63 252820.90
ii. Intangible Assets 2245.10 2013.20 2053.46 2074.00
iii. Capital work-in-progress 87222.90 185094.00 259324.31 331935.12
a) Fixed Assets 335973.40 427751.50 509241.40 586830.02
b) Other non-current assets 2157.90 3020.30 3865.98 4793.82
c) Non Current Investments 499848.00 523185.60 540973.91 551793.39
d) Long Term Loans and Advances 65741.50 40800.70 24480.42 15912.27
Sub-Total Non-Current Assets 903463.30 994758.10 1078561.72 1159329.50
F) Current Assets:
a) Current Investments 4340.00 23432.40 32805.36 45271.40
b) Inventories 52579.40 60078.10 66386.30 73024.93
c) Trade Receivables 7969.20 7708.10 7893.09 7972.03
d) Cash and Bank Balances 22181.10 9611.60 8169.86 8986.85
e) Short Term Loans and Advances 22078.30 12992.00 8834.56 6217.38
f) Other Current Assets 6158.00 1823.80 1276.66 1021.33
Sub-Total Current Assets 115306.00 115646.00 125365.83 142493.91
TOTAL ASSETS (E + F) 1018769.30 1110404.10 1203927.55 1301823.41
Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2013 to 2016E
Value(Rs.in.mn) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E
Description 12m 12m 12m 12m
Net Sales 381994.30 417110.30 462158.21 508374.03
Other Income 9020.40 7876.40 6931.23 7485.73
Total Income 391014.70 424986.70 469089.44 515859.76
Expenditure -270731.90 -288941.30 -317502.69 -346609.42
Operating Profit 120282.80 136045.40 151586.75 169250.35
Interest -18767.70 -18205.80 -20026.38 -21027.70
Gross profit 101515.10 117839.60 131560.37 148222.65
Depreciation -16403.80 -19287.00 -20829.96 -21871.46
Exceptional Items -6745.30 -1417.60 6720.48 0.00
Profit Before Tax 78366.00 97135.00 117450.89 126351.19
Tax -27736.30 -33013.10 -38641.34 -41316.84
Net Profit 50629.70 64121.90 78809.55 85034.35
Equity capital 9714.10 9714.10 9714.10 9714.10
Reserves 542382.70 601765.80 661942.38 721517.19
Face value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
EPS 52.12 66.01 81.13 87.54
Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 31 DEC, 2013 to 30 SEP, 2014E
Value(Rs.in.mn) 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14 30-Jun-14 30-Sep-14E
Description 3m 3m 3m 3m
Net sales 101433.80 121912.20 104682.60 109288.63
Other income 2648.20 529.50 1435.00 1980.30
Total Income 104082.00 122441.70 106117.60 111268.93
Expenditure -72075.00 -80824.50 -72124.00 -75627.74
Operating profit 32007.00 41617.20 33993.60 35641.20
Interest -4529.20 -4646.40 -4923.40 -5169.57
Gross profit 27477.80 36970.80 29070.20 30471.63
Depreciation -4564.60 -4616.30 -4932.60 -5425.86
Exceptional Items 0.00 -1417.60 7879.60 0.00
Profit Before Tax 22913.20 30936.90 32017.20 25045.77
Tax -7725.50 -11150.50 -9337.40 -8215.01
Net Profit 15187.70 19786.40 22679.80 16830.76
Equity capital 9714.10 9714.10 9714.10 9714.10
Face value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
EPS 15.63 20.37 23.35 17.33
Ratio Analysis
Particulars FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E
EPS (Rs.) 52.12 66.01 81.13 87.54
EBITDA Margin (%) 31.49 32.62 32.80 33.29
PBT Margin (%) 20.51 23.29 25.41 24.85
PAT Margin (%) 13.25 15.37 17.05 16.73
P/E Ratio (x) 10.39 8.20 6.67 6.18
ROE (%) 9.17 10.49 11.73 11.63
ROCE (%) 17.34 18.27 18.86 19.58
Debt Equity Ratio 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.88 1.72 1.55 1.39
Book Value (Rs.) 568.35 629.48 691.42 752.75
P/BV 0.95 0.86 0.78 0.72
Charts
OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION
� At the current market price of Rs. 541.30, the stock P/E ratio is at 6.67 x FY15E and 6.18 x FY16E
respectively.
� Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E is seen at Rs.81.13 and
Rs.87.54 respectively.
� Net Sales and PAT of the company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% and 19% over 2013 to 2016E
respectively.
� On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 1.55 x for FY15E and 1.39 x for FY16E.
� Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.78 x and 0.72 x respectively for FY15E and FY16E.
� We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its
growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of
Rs.612.00 for Medium to Long term investment.
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
India has become the second best in terms of growth amongst the top ten steel producing countries in the world
and a net exporter of steel during 2013–14. Steel production in India recorded a growth rate of 4.8 per cent in
February 2014 over February 2013. The cumulative growth during April–February, 2013–14 stood at 4.2 per
cent over the corresponding period of the previous year.
At Present, Steel contributes to nearly two per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and employs over
500,000 people. The total market value of the Indian steel sector stood at US$ 57.8 billion in 2011 and is
expected to touch US$ 95.3 billion by 2016. India's per capita steel consumption stood at 57.8 kilograms in 2013.
Growth Strategy
Financial Year 2013-14 has been a challenging year with subdued economic growth, as a result of higher
inflation, higher interest rates, lower industrial growth and lower investments in the country, along with the
poor condition of the global economy. However, the Indian economy is expected to perform comparatively well
in the coming years. With a stable government at the centre, significant policy changes are anticipated in the near
future. The government focus on infrastructure development, more foreign direct investment inflow and more
transparency in governance is likely to significantly increase the business confidence in the country. Improving
automobile and consumer durable sectors are expected to raise the flat steel demand compared to last year,
while long steel demand is expected to fare relatively better due to an uptick in construction activities and the
planned infrastructure growth. It is expected that the Indian ASU will grow at a modest rate of 4-5% in Financial
Year 2014-15. However, both flat and long products will be under significant supply pressure on account of the
ramp-up of the new projects.
Global steel industry and the outlook
In 2013, global steel demand grew by 3.6% to 1.48 billion tonnes due to improved performance in the developed
economies especially in North America and Euro Zone in the second half of the year. However, growth in
emerging markets slowed down in 2013 due to weak demand especially in developed countries and tighter
financial conditions. The World crude steel production rose by 3.5% to 1.607 billion tonnes in the year 2013.
Steel industry in India
In 2013, India remained the 4th largest steel producing country in the world, behind China, Japan and the US.
Crude steel production grew by 4.6% to 81.2 million tonnes and steel demand grew by 1.8%.
India’s GDP growth has slowed down to 5% in 2013 on account of rising inflation and tight monetary controls.
This has led to weak domestic steel demand, which grew by 3.3% in 2013 inspite of rise in demand in the last
quarter. This has resulted in India becoming the net exporter of steel in Financial Year 2013-14 after a gap of six
years. Total steel exports by India during the Financial Year stood at 5.59 million tonnes, as against imports of
5.44 million tonnes as per the report issued by Joint Plant Committee (JPC), a unit of the steel ministry.
India's GDP is expected to grow by 5% and steel demand is expected to growth by 3.3% in 2014. The automotive
sector (passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles), which grew by -6% in the Financial Year 2013-14, is
expected to grow by about 3%-4% in Financial Year 2014-15. Similarly, the construction sector growth is
expected to grow by 5% in the next year compared to growth of 1.9% in the Financial Year 2013-14.
Investments
The steel industry and its related metallurgy and mining industries have witnessed quite a few investments and
developments in the recent past. Some of the notable investments are as follows:
• L&T Special Steels and Heavy Forgings have entered into a five-year technology transfer agreement with
Japan Steel Works. This agreement covers transfer of critical technology for steel-melting and heavy forgings
made from ingots weighing up to 200 tonnes and for the hydrocarbon and thermal power sectors.
• JSPL Group has commissioned a greenfield 2 MT steel plant in Sohar, Oman at an investment of US$ 800
million. The greenfield unit will be one of the largest steel plants in the Gulf region.
• Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) has secured contracts for supplying over 117,000 tonnes of rails after
successful bids for two global tenders floated by Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL), for major upcoming passenger
rail line projects in India.
• JSW Steel plans to commissiona Rs 45000.00 mn (US$ 748.55 million) cold rolling mill (CRM) at its integrated
steel plant in Torangal, Karnataka. The unit, which will produce high-strength auto-grade steel, has an
installed capacity of 2.3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA).
Government Initiatives
� The Centre's Steel Development Fund (SDF) and Plan Scheme presently provide financial assistance for R&D
in the sector. Under the SDF scheme, 82 R&D projects have been approved with total project cost of Rs
6770.00 mn (US$ 112.61 million) where in SDF assistance is Rs 3700.00 mn (US$ 61.54 million). Under the
Plan Scheme, eight projects have been approved with a total cost of Rs 1232.70 mn (US$ 20.51 million)
where in government assistance is Rs 872.80 mn (US$ 14.51 million).
� In order to increase industrial activity, the Government of India, through the Ministry of Steel, has signed
Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with all the major steel producing Public Sector Undertaking (PSU)
companies such as SAIL and Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd (RINL). These will help to direct the companies to
achieve targets and benefit the sector as a whole.
Road Ahead
The liberalisation of the industrial policy and other initiatives taken by the government has spurred the growth
of the private sector in the steel industry. While the existing units are being modernised or expanded, a large
number of new steel plants have also come up in different parts of the country based on cost-effective and state
of-the-art technologies. In the last few years, the rapid and stable growth of the demand side has also prompted
domestic entrepreneurs to set up fresh greenfield projects in different states of India.
With the increase in global population, there is a greater need for steel to build public-transport infrastructure.
Emerging economies will continue to drive demand as these countries require a significant amount of steel for
urbanisation and industrialisation purposes. India's steel sector is anticipated to witness investment of about Rs
2 trillion (US$ 33.26 billion) in the coming years, as per Tata Steel.
Disclaimer:
This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is
from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall
not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the
information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must
not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.
Firstcall India Equity Research: Email – [email protected]
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