tbe 2008 consultation · continental imports in line with forecast with higher bbl offsetting lower...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: TBE 2008 Consultation · Continental imports in line with forecast with higher BBL offsetting lower IUK imports. ... Grain Flows SAP July 05, first flows Winter 05/06 and 06/07 consistent](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022040622/5d26eb2d88c993782e8d534d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
TBE 2008
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TBE Process
Dec:
•Publish Ten Year
Statement
Feb/Mar:
•Consultation
Apr/May/Jun
•Demand & Supply
Forecasts
•Outline investment
proposalsJuly 10th:
•Industry seminar
September?:
•Long Term Auctions
Oct/Nov:
•Review Investment
Plan
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TBE 2008: Demand Forecasting
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Th
rou
gh
pu
t (T
Wh
)
DN Firm DN Interruptible NTS Industrials NTS Pow er Irish Exports Continental Exports
Forecast demand (November update)
Actual Forecast
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Sector Share of Forecast Gas Demand Growth
2006 – 2016 (excluding exports)
30%
10%
2%
58%
DN Firm DN Interruptible NTS Industrials NTS Power
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Energy Efficiency
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Historical DN demand
300
400
500
600
700
800
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
TW
h p
er
an
nu
m
Firm Interruptible Shrinkage
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Energy Efficiency
� Further falls in NDM gas demand in 2007
� Need to consider the effect of energy efficiency in
the forecast
� Standard of living / comfort v energy efficiency
� Technologies
� Insulation
� Lighting: Compact fluorescent & LED
� Smart meters/intelligent heating controls
� Domestic CHP
� Efficient appliances
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Fuel Prices
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Wholesale fuel prices
Sources: Nymex & Heren
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-
2005
Apr-
2005
Jul-
2005
Oct-
2005
Jan-
2006
Apr-
2006
Jul-
2006
Oct-
2006
Jan-
2007
Apr-
2007
Jul-
2007
Oct-
2007
Jan-
2008
p/t
he
rm
NBP Day-Ahead Price
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Fuel Price Forecast (November update)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
p/k
Wh
Domestic Small Firm Large Firm Interruptible Beach Pow er NBP
Actual Forecast
p/th
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Power Generation
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Power Generation – actual demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
01/10/2007 01/11/2007 01/12/2007 01/01/2008 01/02/2008
MC
M
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
£ / M
Wh
Low Base case High Spark - Dark spread Actual
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-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2020
/21
Demand Nuclear Coal & Oil Gas
Plant Margin - Generating Plant Closure
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-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2006
/07
2007/
08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010/1
1
2011
/12
2012/
13
2013
/14
2014/
15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2020/2
1
Gas Coal Nuclear Wind Mothballed Plant Existing
Plant Margin – New Generation
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Generation – output by fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
TW
h
Other
Wind
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
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Nuclear power
� Closures
� 7.4 GW of plant to close by 2020 (assumes five-year extensions for AGRs) leaving 3.6 GW of existing plant.
� New Nuclear
� Connection agreements with British Energy
� 10.8 GW from 2016 at four sites
� Now a question of when and not if...
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Climate Change Targets
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EU renewable energy targets
� 20% of EU gross final energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020
� Includes heating, lighting, industry, agriculture, transport, distribution losses and energy used in energy production.
� UK target 15% (1.3% in 2005)
� 10% of vehicle fuels from bio-fuels
� Will require 30-40% of electricity generation from renewable sources
� Renewables to be given priority access to transmission and distribution networks.
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Power Generation - renewables
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EMO Sensitivities
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
An
nu
al
Gas D
em
an
d (
bcm
)
Outer Case Central Case Base Case
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TBE 2008: Gas Supply Forecasting
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National Transmission System
~ 420km pipe added for 07/08
Current NTS ~ 7,400 km
Milford Haven to Aberdulais- 128km
Felindre to Tirley pipeline – 186km
Pannal to Nether Kellet – 93km
NTS Charge average ~ 1.9p/therm (Entry/Exit & Commodity)
Average domestic charge ~ 85p/therm
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Supply Performance (winter to date)
� All flows broadly in line with forecasts
� UKCS in line with forecast
� Norwegian imports marginally lower than forecast due to higher flows to Continent
� Continental imports in line with forecast with higher BBL offsetting lower IUK imports. Higher IUK post January 1st
� Intermittent LNG imports via Grain, no Teesside GasPort
� Storage flows in line with demands
� Release of discretionary interruptible capacity
� Interruptible scaleback at ASEPs
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Summary
� Weather – warmer than average
� Gas � Dragon LNG, South Hook and Aldbrough delayed until 2008
� UKCS and storage use in line with forecast
� Introduction of Transfers and Trade, main impact at Isle of Grain
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All Supplies
0
100
200
300
400
500
Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08
mc
m/d
UKCS Estimate inc Tampen Norwegian Estimate BBL IUK LNG Storage
Highest demand day December 17th, 419 mcm/d
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Gas Demand vs Seasonal Conditions
0
100
200
300
400
500
01-Oct 01-Nov 01-Dec 01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr
mc
m/d
NDM* DM (excl. interconnectors)* Storage Injection
Interconnectors Export SND Cold demand
Warm demand
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Remaining UKCS Reserves and Production
Import Requirement
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Actual UKCS/Imports - March 1996 to
Present
5-10% Jan UKCS volume decline year-on-year
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Grain LNG flows to date
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
mcm
/d
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
SA
P p
/th
erm
Grain Flows SAP
July 05, first flows
Winter 05/06 and 06/07 consistent flows,
summer intermittentSummer 07, Winter 07/08
* More attractive prices/markets
* Increased Far East demand
* Tight LNG supply
* Commercial regime
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Norwegian (est)
Langeled completion
Tampen operational
Average over Oct-Jan, near identical
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Norwegian Euro Flows
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BBL flows
BBL operational
Contractual ?
Additional compression
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IUK
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Base Case 2007
• UKCS declines continues
• Assume Norwegian volumes underpin import deliveries
• Troll project cancelled, lower long term volumes
to Europe/UK ?
• LNG flows more variable due to competition from
alternative markets, LNG supply tightness
• BBL volumes initially more certain pending possible reverse flow capability
• IUK more price/market driven
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UKCS decline and potential import make up (Base Case)
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UK Import Flows (Gas Year)
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Import Capacity build-up
Grain expansion
Dragon
South Hook
Dragon expansion
Canvey
Teesside
Fleetwood
BBL expansion
Other
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Import Capacity build-up (load-factors)
LNG, IUK @ 50%
Pipe @ 80%
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Storage developments
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Storage/Import changes
1:8
1:8
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Supply Summary
• Increasing import dependency
• First phase of infrastructure projects have provided significantadditional capacity
• Requirement for additional capacity or high utilisation rates ofinfrastructure in place will be required
• UK Storage low as a legacy of domestic gas reserves
• Significant storage projects proposed but even if majority developed, storage level will only be comparable to major European importers
• Storage and Import projects face significant delays in planning process
• Significant price volatility