tcci barometer march 2013. “establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the financial, business...
TRANSCRIPT
TCCI BarometerMarch 2013
“Establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the financial, business and social activity in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki”
• Conduct every six months (September 2nd fortnight)
• Monitoring five (5) populations of interest:
- Residents – Consumers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Consumer Survey)
- Retail Trade companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Retail Trade Survey)
- Industries – Manufacturers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Industry Survey)
- Services companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Services Survey)
- Construction companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Construction Survey)
• Conduct via telephone interviews (CATI system)
• Total sample of 1.500 respondents (700 consumers & 800 companies)
• Questionnaires along the lines of instructions for investigating
economic climate (DG – ECFIN)
Consumer Survey
Industry Survey
Services Survey
Retail Trade Survey4
3
2
1
Construction Survey5
Consumer Survey1
Consumer Confidence Indicator
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -55
Greece : -71
European Union : -22
Consumer Survey1
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Consumer Confidence Indicator (September 2012)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -68
Greece : -76
European Union : -24
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -67GR: -79EU: -20
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -60GR: -83EU: -21
September 2012
0%0%
9%
46%
45%
How has the financial situation of your household changed
over the last 12 months? It has...
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
0%1%
16%
44%
39%
How has the financial situation of your household changed
over the last 12 months? It has...
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive– Negative)THE: -56GR: -71EU: -12
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -40GR: -63EU: -10
September 2012
4%
17%
38%
39%
3%
How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It
will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
0%
9%
26%
33%
28%
3%
How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It
will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -77GR: -92EU: -48
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -64GR: -88EU: -46
September 2012
2%
7%
27%
65%
0%
How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12
months? It has…
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
don't know
0%4%
12%
32%
50%
1%
How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12
months? It has…
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -58GR: -72EU: -31
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -46GR: -64EU: -25
September 2012
1%
7%
15%
27%
49%
2%
How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12
months? It will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
1%
12%
19%
28%
38%
1%
How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12
months? It will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +26GR: +30EU: +39
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -7
GR: +25EU: +30
September 2012
4%
19%
19%
35%
22%
1%
How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months? They
have…
fallen
stayed about the same
risen slightly
risen moderately
risen a lot
don't know
13%
32%
21%
22%
11%
2%
How do you think that consumer prices have de-veloped over the last 12 months? They have…
fallen
stayed about the same
risen slightly
risen moderately
risen a lot
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +10GR: +10EU: +27
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -15GR: +0,2EU: +20
September 2012
9%
25%
13%31%
16%
6%
By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in
the next 12 months? They will...
fall
stay about the same
increase at a slower rate
increase at the same rate
increase more rapidly
don't know
15%
38%
11%
22%
8%5%
By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in the
next 12 months? They will...
fall
stay about the same
increase at a slower rate
increase at the same rate
increase more rapidly
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +82GR: +83EU: +40
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +63GR: +83EU: +38
September 2012
0% 2%
5%
18%
74%
0%
How do you expect the number of people unem-ployed in this country to change over the next 12
months? The number will…
fall sharply
fall slightly
remain the same
increase shlightly
increase sharply
don't know
1%
5%
8%
36%
48%
1%
How do you expect the number of people unem-ployed in this country to change over the next 12
months? The number will…
fall sharply
fall slightly
remain the same
increase shlightly
increase sharply
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -56GR: -67EU: -25
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -58GR: -58EU: -23
September 2012
1%
11%
21%
67%
In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to make major purchases such as furniture, elec-
trical/electronic devices, etc.?
don’t know
yes,it is the right moment now
it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment
no, it is not the right moment now
2%
14%
13%
72%
In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to
make major purchases such as furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.?
don’t know
yes,it is the right moment now
it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment
no, it is not the right moment now
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -77GR: -70EU: -25
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -67GR: -70EU: -24
September 2012
3%2%
6%
15%
73%
1%
Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases (furni-ture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next
12 months? I will spend…
much more
a little more
about the same
a little less
much less
don't know
2%
4%
11%
22%60%
1%
Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases (furni-ture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next 12
months? I will spend…
much more
a little more
about the same
a little less
much less
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -58GR: -60EU: -
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -52GR: -46EU: -
September 2012
5%
13%
21%59%
2%
In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?
a very good moment to save
a fairly good moment to save
not a good moment to save
a very bad moment to save
don't know
7%
14%
20%56%
2%
In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?
a very good moment to save
a fairly good moment to save
not a good moment to save
a very bad moment to save
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -76GR: -77EU: -12
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -71GR: -75EU: -13
September 2012
1%
7%
20%
71%
0%
Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
don't know
3%8%
20%
68%
1%
Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
don't know
Consumer Survey1September 2012
1%
7%
39%
27%
27%
0%
Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?
we are saving a lot
we are saving a little
we are just managing to make ends meet on our income
we are having to draw on our savings
we are running into debt
don't know
1%
10%
45%21%
24%
0%
Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?
we are saving a lot
we are saving a little
we are just managing to make ends meet on our income
we are having to draw on our savings
we are running into debt
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -94GR*: -95EU*: -75
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -91GR*: -99EU*: -74
*Data of July ‘12
September 2012
*Data of January ‘13
1% 1%
6%
93%
How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
2% 2%
5%
91%
How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -98GR*: -98EU*: -89
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -95GR*: -98EU*: -90
*Data of July ‘12
September 2012
*Data of January ‘13
0% 1%1%
98%
Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of
your family, as a holiday home, to let etc.)?
yes, definitely
possibly
probably not
no
2%
4%
94%
Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of
your family, as a holiday home, to let etc.)?
yes, definitely
possibly
probably not
no
Consumer Survey1
*Data of July ‘12
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -85GR*: -89EU*: -59
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -82GR*: -94EU*: -57
September 2012
*Data of January ‘13
1%
4%
14%
81%
How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations
over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
2%
6%
11%
81%
How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations
over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
Industry Survey2
Industry Survey2
Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector) – September 2012
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -24
Greece : -22
European Union : -15
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -14
Greece : -12
European Union : -12
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -48GR: -29EU: -15
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -42GR: -3
EU: -10
September 2012
decreased55%remain
un-changed
29%
increased10%
don't know5%
How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:
decreased58%
remain un-
changed26%
increased16%
don't know1%
How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -57GR: -52EU: -28
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -58GR: -40EU: -30
September 2012
not sufficient60%
sufficient34%
more than sufficient4%
don't know1%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
not sufficient63%
sufficient30%
more than sufficient5%
don't know1%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -37GR: -27EU: -26
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -38GR: -24EU: -25
September 2012
not sufficient33%
don't know 28%
sufficient34%
more than sufficient6%
Do you consider your current export order books to be:
not sufficient33%
don't know 34%
sufficient25%
more than sufficient8%
Do you consider your current export order books to be:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -9
GR: +11EU: +8
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -9GR: +4EU: +7
September 2012
adequate50%
too small26%
too large17%
don't know6%
Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:
adequate50%
too small27%
too large19%
don't know4%
Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -24GR: -3EU: -7
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +9GR: +9EU: +1
September 2012
decrease36%
remain unchanged37%
increase15%
don't know13%
How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…
decrease26%
remain un-
changed32%
increase34%
don't know8%
How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -9GR: -11
EU: +0,5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -17GR: -5EU: -2
September 2012
remain un-
changed61%
decrease19%
increase10%
don’t know10%
How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed65%
decrease24%
increase8%
don’t know3%
How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -19 GR: -15 EU: -13
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -12GR: -7
EU: -10
September 2012
remain un-
changed68%
decrease22%
don’t know 6%
increase4%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed65%
decrease23%
don’t know 1%
increase11%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Industry Survey2September 2012
don't know
other factors
shortage of material and/or equipment
shortage of labour force
none
financial constraints
insufficient demand
0%
7%
9%
3%
3%
54%
56%
What main factors are currently limiting your production?
don't know
other factors
shortage of material and/or equipment
shortage of labour force
none
financial constraints
insufficient demand
1%
7%
11%
3%
4%
52%
65%
What main factors are currently limiting your production?
Industry Survey2September 2012
decreased58%
remain un-
changed25%
increased15%
don't know2%
How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…
decreased50%
remain un-
changed28%
increased20%
don't know2%
How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -9
GR:* +41EU:* +21
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -9
GR:* +31EU:* +21
*Data of July ‘12
September 2012
*Data of January ‘13
sufficient66%
not sufficient20%
more than suf-ficient11%
don't know3%
Considering your current order books and the ex-pected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capac-
ity? The current production capacity is…
sufficient64%
not sufficient22%
more than suf-ficient13%
don't know1%
Considering your current order books and the ex-pected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capac-
ity? The current production capacity is…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +3 GR: +9
EU: +0,5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +21GR: +24EU: +2
*Data of July ‘12
September 2012
*Data of January ‘13
don't know28%
remain un-
changed28%
decrease21%
increase23%
How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…
don't know35%
remain un-
changed26%
decrease13%
increase26%
How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…
Industry Survey2
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. *Greece : FEIR3. *European Union : DG ECFIN
Thessaloniki Greece* European Union*
**How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books? 3,1 4,1 3,9
***At what capacity is your company currently operating (as a percentage of full capacity)? 55,1% 65,3% 77,6%
** Percentage of those who answered: 96%*** Percentage of those who answered: 98%
Services Survey3
Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector) – September 2012
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -43
Greece : -41
European Union : -13
Services Survey3
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR 3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -30
Greece : -22
European Union : -5
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -55GR: -38EU: -19
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -46GR: -35EU: -12
September 2012
deteriorated63%
remained unchanged
28%
improved8%
How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…
deteriorated58%
remained unchanged
30%
improved12%
How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -45GR: -42EU: -15
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -31GR: -23EU: -5
September 2012
decreased56%
remained unchanged
31%
increased12%
don't know1%
How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It has…
decreased49%
remained unchanged
33%
increased18%
don't know0%
How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It has…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -13GR: -9EU: +2
September 2012
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -28 GR: -43 EU: -4
decrease43%
remain un-
changed36%
increase16%
don't know4%
How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the
next 6 months? It will…
decrease41%
remain unchanged31%
increase28%
don't know1%
How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the
next 6 months? It will…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -22 GR: -25 EU: -7
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -22 GR: -33 EU: -3
September 2012
remained unchanged
68%
decreased24%
increased3%
don't know4%
How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…
remained unchanged
70%
decreased26%
increased4%
How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -15 GR: -39 EU: -5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -5
GR: -20EU: -2
September 2012
remain un-
changed68%
decrease19%
increase5%
don't know7%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed72%
decrease15%
increase10%
don't know3%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -33GR: -40EU: -0,3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -37GR: -37EU: -0,2
September 2012
remain un-
changed55%
decrease35%
increase4%
don't know5%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed51%decrease
40%
increase4%
don't know4%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
Services Survey3September 2012
insufficient demant
financial constraints
other factors
none
shortage of labour force
shortage of space and/or equipment
don't know
50%
67%
12%
3%
1%
0%
0%
What main factors are currently limiting your business?
insufficient demant
financial constraints
other factors
none
shortage of labour force
shortage of space and/or equipment
don't know
40%
67%
15%
4%
4%
4%
0%
What main factors are currently limiting your business?
Retail Trade Survey4
Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector) – September 2012
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -31
Greece : -37
European Union : -15
Retail Trade Survey4
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR 3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -29
Greece : -26
European Union : -13
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -65GR: -69EU: -20
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -71GR: -53EU: -19
September 2012
deteriorated73%
remained unchanged
19%
improved8%
How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…
(They have…)
deteriorated78%
remained unchanged
15%
improved7%
How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…
(They have…)
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -16 GR: -12 EU: +15
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -11 GR: -11 EU: +13
September 2012
adequate (normal for the
season)49%
too large (above normal)
16%
too small (be-low normal)
32%
don't know3%
Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:
adequate (normal for the season)
51%
too large (above normal)
17%
too small (be-low normal)
28%
don't know4%
Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -49 GR: -56 EU: -20
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -44GR: -44EU: -14
September 2012
decrease59%
remain un-
changed24%
increase9%
don't know7%
How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months?
They will…
decrease57%
remain un-
changed27%
increase13%
don't know4%
How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months?
They will…
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -43GR: -54EU: -11
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -28GR: -36EU: -8
September 2012
deteriorate (decrease)
55%remain
un-changed
29%
improve (increase)
12%
don't know3%
How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…
deteriorate (decrease)
48%
remain un-
changed27%
improve (increase)
20%
don't know5%
How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They) will…
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -20 GR: -57 EU: -9
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -18GR: -25EU: -7
September 2012
remain un-
changed69%
decrease23%
don't know4%
increase4%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed70%
decrease22%
don't know3%
increase5%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -21 GR: -22 EU: +11
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -23GR: -28EU: +7
September 2012
remain un-
changed57%
decrease28%
increase8%
don't know6%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed54%decrease
30%
increase9%
don't know8%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
Construction Survey5
Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector) – September 2012
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -49
Greece : -58
European Union : -33
Construction Survey5
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR 3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -56
Greece : -46
European Union : -30
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -60 GR: -39 EU: -19
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -67 GR: -32 EU: -17
September 2012
decreased68%
remained unchanged
23%
increased9%
How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…
decreased72%
remained unchanged
22%
increased5%
don't know1%
How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…
Construction Survey5September 2012
don't know
shortage of labour force
shortage of equipment
weather conditions
none
other factors
financial constraints
insufficient demand
0%
0%
3%
3%
3%
0%
62%
66%
What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?
don't know
shortage of labour force
shortage of equipment
weather conditions
none
other factors
financial constraints
insufficient demand
0%
1%
2%
3%
0%
1%
55%
76%
What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -73 GR: -75 EU: -45
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -84 GR: -71 EU: -41
September 2012
sufficient26%
not sufficient73%
more than sufficient1%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
sufficient13%
not sufficient85%
more than sufficient1%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -26GR: -42EU: -21
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -29GR: -22EU: -20
September 2012
remain un-
changed61%
decrease31%
increase5%
don't know2%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed57%
decrease33%
increase6%
don't know4%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -24 GR: -18 EU: -14
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -30GR: -6
EU: -13
September 2012
remain un-
changed66%
decrease27%
increase4%
don't know3%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed63%
decrease31%
increase3%
don't know3%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…