tcw energy group tcw asset management company moga capital markets update patrick hickey senior vice...
TRANSCRIPT
TCW Energy Group
TCW Asset Management Company
MOGA Capital Markets Update
Patrick HickeySenior Vice PresidentMay 2006
2
TCW Energy Group
Table of Contents
• Market Perspectives
• Mezzanine Market Overview
• TCW Overview
• Conclusions
3
TCW Energy Group
Energy Product Prices
$-
$12
$24
$36
$48
$60
$72
$84
$96
Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05
$/B
bl
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$/M
MB
tu
Nymex Crude - Monthly Nymex Gas - Monthly
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TCW Energy Group
Energy Capital Markets
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06
B+/B- Spread Over LIBOR 10-Yr TreasuryS&P Energy Equity Index High Yield Energy Index (%)
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TCW Energy Group
Trends in the E&P Markets
• After a period of debt reduction and share buybacks, E&P companies are spending more of free cash flow on drilling
• Public and private valuations are up
• Volumetric Production Payments are back
• Substantial private capital flowing into industry
• Public venture markets are active: AIM, Canadian Jrs.
• Seller’s expectations are forcing buyers to bid aggressively for assets
• “Land rush” in unconventional gas plays
• Equity markets are rewarding predictable and visible reserve and production growth
• Clear winners: “Resource Plays”
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TCW Energy Group
Implications…..
• Market environment has created a windfall for many
• Hedging is necessary to support valuations and acquisition prices
• Value creation going forward likely to be based more on field enhancement/drill bit than market timing/arbitrage
• Companies have been afforded the opportunity to innovate (improved completion methods)
• Access to/Quality of services is key concern
• Large independents re-positioning their asset profile with a focus on long-lived reserves and low risk drilling
• Capital providers forced to be flexible
• Non-traditional financing sources tend to “loosen” market discipline and exit when times get tough
• High commodity prices can mask underlying problems – “point of caution”
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TCW Energy Group
TCW Version of Mezzanine
• Broadly defined: high yield senior to preferred equity
• Flexible: Not tied to a particular structure
• Partner-like, long term orientation
• Current pay plus kicker (royalty, warrants, cash flow participation, PIK)
• Low to mid-teens rate of return: fees, coupon, kicker
• Amortization provides exit; call protection
• Secured by assets and/or shares
• Minimal Covenants: Make bet on management team and assets
• Alternative to equity
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TCW Energy Group
US - E&P Mezzanine Finance Providers
28 Players have entered the E&P Mezzanine market, only 10 remain
MG
1990 1992 19981996 20001994 20021982 198819861984
TCW
RIMCO
ENCAP
Torch
Enron
Cambrian
Beacon
KCS
Stratum
Koch
Wells Fargo
Tenneco/Range
Deutsche Bank
Cargill
Aquila
Mirant
Duke
Shell
Macquarie
Goldman Sachs
Williams
Petrobridge
2004
Source: Wells Fargo
Prudential Black Rock
RBS
Constellation
Laminar
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TCW Energy Group
Oil and Gas Risk/Return Profile
EquityEquity
Pref. EquityPref. Equity
MezzanineMezzanine
VPPVPP
Senior DebtSenior Debt
TCW Sweet Spot
30% +
25%
15%
10%
6%
Risk
Return
PDP PDNP PUD PROB/POSS Exploration Prospects
Engineering Risk Geological/Geophysical Risk
TCW’s focus is on engineering and development risk, not geological and exploration risk
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TCW Energy Group
Mezzanine Debt Applications
• Fills void in capital structure between equity and senior debt
• Small to mid-sized companies that cannot access the public markets
• Isolate assets in a separate non-recourse project financing
• Accelerate development drilling program
• Acquisition, monetization, or recapitalization
• Reduces the amount of equity required, thereby increasing the leverage and ultimately the equity returns
Mezzanine Debt is a viable alternative when designing the optimal capital structure
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TCW Energy Group
Mezzanine Debt Applications
• Use of mezzanine capital can lower capital costs, increase equity returns,
and increase ownership
Equity
Equity
60%
100%
Equity OnlyAll in Capital Cost 14%
Equity & MezzanineAll in Capital Cost 10%
• Lower Capital Costs• Higher Equity Return• Greater Ownership
Equity
30%
100%
80%
60%
Equity30%
Mezzanine15%
Bank Debt6%
Equity30%
Bank Debt6%
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TCW Energy Group
TCW Energy & Infrastructure Group
• Among leading providers of institutional capital for the energy sector in North America
• Niche investor exclusively focused on energy and infrastructure sectors
• 24-year track record; by far the longest in the industry
• 12 funds with more than $6 billion of capital and 175 portfolio investments
• Invested in 16 countries on 5 continents
• 20 professionals (6 engineers)
• Recent funds raised for investment:
– TCW Energy Fund X - $734 million unlevered fund for mezzanine and equity investments in US, W. Europe and Australia
– TCW Global Project Fund II - $700 million leveraged fund for high yield senior investments on a global basis
– TCW Global Project Fund III - $1.5 billion leveraged fund for investment grade senior loans on a global basis
In 2005, the TCW Energy Group invested $894 million in 27 separate transactions in 10 countries.
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TCW Energy Group
EIG Product Platform
Mezzanine and Non-Control Equity
Special Situations
High Yield Senior
Senior Debt GPF III
GPF II
Fund X & Cogen
Client JVs & Separate Accounts
Enhanced Market Penetration Benefiting All Products
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TCW Energy Group
TCW Overview
• Established in 1971
• The TCW Group, Inc. is an indirect subsidiary of Société Générale, S.A.
• Approximately $123 billion committed or under managementas of December 31, 2005
• Over 1,625 institutional and private clients
• Staff of over 600 individuals, including over 355 professionals
• Offices: TCW SG Asset ManagementLos Angeles ParisNew York LondonHouston Tokyo
SingaporeHong Kong
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TCW Energy Group
Conclusions
• Producers have choices when choosing a capital provider
– Stability and partnership orientation are key
• TCW is bullish on prices long term
• New pricing environment, combined with hedging, has created new opportunities
• Consolidation should continue as companies utilize excess cash flow and access private equity
• Market appears to have accepted new higher levels for commodity prices
• Mezzanine capital will continue to be a viable alternative
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TCW Energy Group
TCW E&P Contacts
Kurt Talbot 713-615-7426Managing Director [email protected]
Patrick Hickey 713-615-7410Senior Vice President [email protected]
Curt Taylor 713-615-7410Senior Vice President [email protected]