Teacher Demand, Supply and Retention in Newfoundland and Labrador

A Report by Dr. David Dibbonand Dr. Bruce Sheppard

Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s Newfoundland

Copyright © 2001

ISBN 0-88901-349-7

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AcknowledgementsThe project that gave rise to this publication was supported through funds provided

by Human Resources Development Canada (HRDC). In this respect we are particularly grateful for the support provided by Mr. Joe Connors and Ms. Joan Walsh. Recognition must also be given to Dr. Harold Press and Mr. Gerald Galway at the Department of Education for their initial involvement in the preparation of the research proposal and for their support in securing funding for the project. Thanks is also extended to Dr. Bob Crocker for providing access to research data compiled for a similar reserach study he conducted in 2000.

Many local groups and administrators made important contributions to the research project. Special appreciation is extended to the following groups: the executive of the Newfoundland and Labrador Teachers’ Association for participating in a series of focus groups that centred on the issues of teacher supply and demand; chairpersons, directors and assistant directors in each of the participant school districts for participating in face-to-face and telephone interviews; principals and assistant principals in each of the participating schools for undertaking telephone interviews; the office of Undergraduate Studies in the Faculty of Education for providing enrollment data for the past 10 years; and the staff at the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Education for providing access to their education statistics.

The authors would also like to acknowledge following organizations for their participation in the interview process: Alberta Learning, British Columbia Teacher’s Federation, British Columbia College of Teachers, British Columbia Department of Education, Ontario College of Teachers, Ontario Ministry of Education, Durham School District, Peel School District, Ottawa-Carleton School District, Canadian Teachers’ Federation, Canadian Education Association and the Canadian Association for School Administrators.

There were also three individuals who made very large contributions to the project. Ms. Jennifer Philips, our research analyst, who was instrumental in providing data from the Department of Education; Mr. Lloyd Gill, our research assistant, who provided much of the qualitative analysis; and, finally Mr. Andrew Dickson, who was responsible for editing the final document, designing the layout for the final manuscript and preparing it for publication in electronic format.

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Table of ContentsTable of Contents 5 List of Tables 7List of Figures 9

Chapter One Introduction 11 Organization of the Report 12 Framework and Methodology 13

Chapter Two Context and Background 19 Policy Changes 19 Teacher Allocation Policy 20 Teacher Retirement Policy 21 Demography and Demographic Processes 22 Trends in Student Enrollment 26 Trends in Teacher Retirement 28 Globalization and Teacher Mobility 30 Chapter Three Teacher Demand 39 National and International Trends 39 Alberta 46 British Columbia 47 Ontario 50 Saskatchewan 54 Nova Scotia 55 Nunavut 55 The United States 56 Teacher Demand in Newfoundland and Labrador 59 Reports from the field: Interviews with Directors and Chairs 59 Shortage of Personnel 60 Oversupply of Personnel 62 Human Resources Issues, Concerns and Strategies 63 Reports from the Field: Follow-up Survey with Assistant Directors of Personnel 66 Measures of Teacher Demand 68 Areas of Specialization 68 School Administration 70 Special Education 71 Guidance 72 Geographical Areas 72

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A Comparison of Two Districts 73 Increase in the Use of Emergency Supply and Retired Teachers 75 Summary 76

Chapter Four Teacher Supply 79 Sources of Supply 79 Substitute Teacher Supply 79 Substitute Teacher Availability 86 Who are the Substitutes? 87 Difficulties Getting a Substitute Teacher 88 Substitute Teacher Match 90 Subject Area Difficulty 91 Coping Strategies 93 Summary and Conclusions 93 Admissions to the Faculty of Education - Memorial University 96 Admission Demand 97 Teacher Certification 101 Follow-up Surveys 102 Graduate Follow-Up Surveys 102 Class of 1995 103 Class of 1999 104 Career Expectations of Education Graduates 107 Summary 112

Chapter Five Teacher Retention 115 Retaining Senior Teachers 115 Beginning Teachers Job Satisfaction 122 Summary 126

Chapter Six Conclusions and Recommendations 129 Conclusions 129 Recommendations 133 Some Final Comments 136

List of References 138

Appendix One 143

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List of TablesTable 1: Teacher Demand, Supply and Retention: Framework and Methodology 15Table 2: Provincial Migration, Births, Deaths 1997-2000 26 Table 3: Student Enrollment: Actual and Projected 1990-2011 28 Table 4: Teacher Mobility 1999-2000 33Table 5: Number of Teachers Planning to Enroll in an Advanced Degree Program 34Table 6: Positions requiring a Special Education Degree 1999-2000 72Table 7: Gender and Experience of Substitute Teachers -1999-2000 81Table 8: Job Status of Substitute Teachers - 1999-2000 82Table 9: Job Search Intentions of Substitute Teachers 1999-2000 83Table 10 : Job Search Intentions of Substitute Teachers 1999-2000 83Table 11: Preferred Teaching Assignment of Substitute Teachers 1999-2000 83Table 12: Job Search Activities of Substitute Teachers - Not Looking For Permanent Job 1999-2000 84Table 13: Mobility of Substitute Teachers Who are Looking for Full-time Employment 1999-2000 84Table 14: Mobility of Substitute Teachers - Willing to Relocate 1999-2000 85Table 15: Job Search Strategies of Substitute Teachers looking for a Full-time Position 1999-2000 85Table 16: Job Search Strategies of Substitute Teachers 1999-2000 86Table 17: Sample Schools by District 87Table 18: Number and Percentage of Urban and Rural Schools 87Table 19: Percentage of Substitute Teachers by Category 88Table 20: Difficulty Getting Substitute Teachers by Community and School Type 89Table 21: Difficulty Getting a Substitute Teacher by School District 90Table 22: Ability to get a Good Substitute Teacher Match by School and Community Type 90Table 23: Ability to get a Good Substitute Teacher Match by District 91Table 24: Difficulty Getting a Substitute Teacher by Subject Area/Grade Level 92Table 25: Subject Area /Grade Level Match in Urban and Rural Areas 93Table 26: Coping Strategies When Substitutes Are Not Available 94Table 27: Actions Taken When Substitute Teacher Not Available by School District 95Table 28: Employment Outcomes of Education Graduates of Memorial University 1994-1998 103Table 29: Job Status of 1999 Graduates 105

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Table 30: Mobility and Preference for Location: Class of 1999 106Table 31: Future Plans of Class of 1999 107Table 32: Job Seeking Activities of Graduates 108Table 33: Mobility of Graduates 109Table 34: Future Plans of Graduates 110Table 35: Graduates’ Perceptions of the Job Market 111Table 36: Retiring Teachers 1999-2000: By Teaching Position and School Type 116Table 37: Retiring Teachers 1999-2000 By School Type 116Table 38: Reasons for Retiring from Teaching 117Table 39: Teachers Indicating a Desire to Remain Teaching if Financial Incentives were Adequate 118Table 40: Teachers Who Would Consider Substitute Teaching if Financial Incentives were Adequate 119Table 41: Teachers Expressing an Interest in Teaching in Another Jurisdiction 120Table 42: Teachers’ Interest in Working outside the Education Sector after Retirement 120Table 43: Retiring Teachers: Perceptions of Conditions in School Today 122Table 44: Beginning Teachers 1996-1999 123Table 45: Beginning Teachers’ views on Certain Facets of their Job 124Table 46: Beginning Teachers’ Enthusiasm for Teaching 125

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Newfoundland Population: Actual and Projected 1994-2004 24Figure 2: Total Fertility Rates for Newfoundland 1957-2000 24Figure 3: Newfoundland Live Births 1972-2000 25Figure 4: Median Ages of Newfoundland Population: Actual and Projected 26Figure 5: Age Distribution for Teacher Population 2000-2001 29Figure 6: Number of Teachers by Teaching Experience 29Figure 7: Teacher Retirements: Actual 1990-2001 30Figure 8: Mobility of Teachers: Within and Between Districts and Leaving Province 1999-2000 34Figure 9: Teacher Mobility Plans by District 1999-2000 (a-j) 35–38Figure 10: Estimates and Projections of the Population Canada and Jurisdictions, 1986 to 2016 41–44Figure 11: Original Idea Units 60Figure 12: Secondary Teachers Eligible to Retire Within 5 Years by Teaching Area 70Figure 13: Number of School Administrators Eligible to Retire in the Next 10 Years by District 71Figure 14: Registered Emergency Supply Teachers by District 75Figure 15: Substitute Teachers 1995-1999 80Figure 16: Substitute Teachers’ Major and Minor - 1999-2000 82Figure 17: Total Undergraduate Education Degrees: Faculty of Education 1985-2000 97Figure 18: Comparison of Applicants, Admissions and Enrollment in the Faculty of Education 1992-2000 98Figure 19: Percentage of Students Declining Acceptance by Program 1992-2000 98Figure 20: Number of Admissions by Program 1992-2000 99Figure 21: Number of Admissions and Declines by Subject Area (a-h) 100Figure 22: Teacher Certification: Number of Resident and Non-resident Certifications 101Figure 23: Initial Teacher Certification by Teaching Level 102

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CHAPTER ONEIntroduction

Changes in the teacher labour market brought on by demographic changes, the recent trend towards globalization of the workforce and policy changes introduced by provincial governments have converged to stimulate a debate about whether or not there exists a general teacher shortage in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. This is a complex issue and it increases in complexity when one considers how it varies by grade, subject area, school district and location. Some districts have many applications for employment while others have few. Some subject areas have a glut of trained and certified individuals and other areas have a shortage. This is also an issue that is being debated in many other areas across North America and around the world, and the most meaningful solutions will only be found if researchers and practitioners are capable of understanding the interrelations that exist between juris-dictions. Hence, they will need to be knowledgeable about the issues and trends from an international, national and local perspective. These perspectives are pro-vided in this report.

The purpose of this introduction is to provide the reader with a brief overview of the factors that shape the demand, supply and retention of teachers. Demand for teachers is generally driven by enrollment, and while enrollment of students from one grade to the next is usually easy to predict, determining the number of kindergarten entrants is a little more challenging, as we have to rely on live birth counts from the previous five years to make an estimate. Supply refers to the sources of new entrants to the teaching profession. In Newfoundland and Labrador, most new entrants come from the substitute teacher pool or from new teachers graduating from the Faculty of Education at Memorial University of Newfoundland. Retention refers to the capacity of the education system to retain educators from one year to the next. Thus, an understanding of the factors that influence attrition, job satisfaction and retirement is important.

Primarily, this report will focus on human resource issues associated with the demand, supply and retention of teachers in the Canadian province of Newfoundland

...this report will focus on human resource issues associated with the demand, supply and retention of teachers...

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and Labrador. The fit between the skill set of graduates of relevant training programs and the present and future needs of school districts will also be highlighted.

Specifically, this report will provide answers to the following research questions: 1. What is the nature of the structural changes taking place within the education

sector in the province and what are the factors driving these changes? 2. What are the present and future demands of school districts? In what capacities,

subject areas, skills and grade levels are districts experiencing the greatest needs? Where will the greatest needs exist in the near future? How are principals and human resource officers dealing with the current situation?

3. Is there a teacher supply problem? What is the breadth and depth of the substitute teacher pool? Are there enough new graduates to meet the demand? How mobile are new graduates?

4. Can the province retain current teachers? Are new teachers satisfied with their career decisions? Why are relatively young teachers retiring as soon as they are eligible? What would be an adequate incentive for them to stay?

The results provide essential data needed to determine the long-term prospects for the education sector in the province and help determine whether a sufficient labour pool exists to meet the province's demand for educators. The report also provides valuable labour market information for young people considering a career in the education sector. As well, the report can be valuable for government policy makers and educational leaders concerned about the quantity and quality of the labour supply.

From an educational planning perspective, declining enrollments in rural areas have resulted in a significant challenge to the task of understanding our education labour market. Some of those challenges include attracting highly qualified teachers to rural and remote regions of the province, matching the mobility and skills of the labour supply with the patterns of employment demand, and attracting talented young people into the teaching profession. Using the data from this study should help schools, regardless of the social and economic circumstances of their particular communities, to attract highly qualified teachers.

Organization of the Report

This report is divided into six parts. Part I consists of a brief introduction to the problem being investigated, a detailed overview of the framework used for the study and the methodologies used to collect and analyze the data. Part II provides the context and background for the study, highlighting the major trends and forces that are converging to influence teacher supply and demand. Part III identifies and assesses the present and future demands of Newfoundland and Labrador school districts. Part III also provides an overview of teacher demand, as it exists in other jurisdictions (e.g., other provinces and parts of the United States). Part IV examines the sources of teacher supply and assesses the capacity of each source to meet future demand in the province. Part V assesses the capac-ity of the current system to retain its current teachers. Finally, Part VI draws a number of conclusions about the teacher supply and demand issue, and provides a series of recom-mendations that, if followed, could help to manage the situation in the future.

...declining enrolments in rural areas have resulted in a significant challenge to the task of understanding our education labour market.

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Framework and MethodologyThe study reported in this paper employed a mixed-methods approach towards data

collection. A mixed-methods approach takes advantage of numerous methodologies that enhance the validity of inference from the phenomenon being studied and helps uncover new dimensions or paradigms. Face-to-face interviews, focused group interviews, survey questionnaires, telephone questionnaires, electronic questionnaires, a cohort analysis and a detailed review of literature were all utilized to assess the supply, demand and retention situation in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The study was conducted in six distinct phases (see Table 1). In order to profile the structural and policy changes taking place within the province, an extensive examination of statistical data sources that provided information on the distribution and composition of the province's population was undertaken in Phase I. For example, Statistics Canada Reports, the Educational Staff Records (ESR’s) and Annual General Returns (AGR’s) from the Department of Education (1995-2000) were examined to determine the nature of current demographic trends in the general population, as well as for school-aged children. During Phase I, it became obvious that many factors helped shape the various trends that were emerging, and in Phase II a background paper was developed to provide an overview of factors and conditions that impact on supply, demand and retention of teachers. This background is presented in the following chapter.

In Phase III the nature and extent of present and future demands of school districts in the province were identified and assessed. The focus was on identifying the human resource issues associated with staffing schools and classrooms with qualified teachers. To help identify the issues that were pertinent to school districts, a Human Resources Issues Survey was developed and field-tested. The survey inquired about such things as trends and priorities in human resource development, areas of growth, areas of oversupply, identification of critical skills for the future and descriptions of strategies used to attract teachers. In the spring of 2000 face-to-face interviews were conducted with 10 out of the 11 Directors of Education and Chairpersons of the School Boards. The interviews were analyzed using the constant comparative method (Strauss and Corbin, 1990). Also, as most of the teacher hiring in the province occurs between April and August, a follow-up telephone interview was developed. A survey, The Current Hiring Issues and Concerns Survey, was conducted with each of the Assistant Directors of Personnel in the fall of 2000, to inquire about the nature of the difficulties that districts experienced in filling vacant positions during the school year.

Reports from the field indicated that some jurisdictions were experiencing difficul-ties obtaining the services of substitute teachers during the fall semester. To investigate this phenomenon a Substitute Teacher Availability Instrument was developed and utilized with survey school administrators in each of the school districts. A stratified sample that included 30% of the schools in each district was selected and responses were generated from 103 of the 115 schools contacted.

Also during Phase III, a series of three focused group interviews were also conducted with the professional staff and executive members of the Newfoundland and Labrador Teachers’ Association (NLTA). For these focus groups, the Human Resource Issues

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Survey was modified slightly to inquire about the role that the NLTA could play in helping to address the issues. Once again, these interviews were analyzed using the constant comparative method.

Early in the research it became obvious that the issues associated with the supply, demand and retention of teachers were complex and that policy changes and population trends in other parts of North America and the world were beginning to have an impact in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. To investigate the nature and extent of the issues in other parts of the country, and to provide national perspective on the problem, the literature was reviewed and data was collected on school districts in other parts of Canada as well as in the United States.

Key officials in other parts of the country were asked to identify areas and school districts that they would define as areas of growth. Using a judgment sample, interviews were conducted with the Directors of Education in two districts in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and one in the Ottawa region. Interviews were also conducted with officials in the Ministry of Education in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia as well as officials with the Ontario and British Columbia College of Teachers. To get a truly national perspective interviews were also conducted with officials of the Canadian Education Association (CEA), the Canadian Association of School Administrators (CASA) and the Canadian Teachers’ Federation (CTF). The interview questions used for these surveys were slightly modified versions of The Human Resource Issues Questionnaire that were used in the initial interviews with the Newfoundland Directors of Education, and once again, the interviews were analyzed using the constant comparative method.

To broaden the perspective, a library and an Internet search revealed a number of relevant documents that were representative of similar work conducted in other jurisdictions (e.g.,, Crocker, 1998 and 2000; Press, 1998; Nova Scotia Department of Education, 2000; Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation, 2000; and Oklahoma State Regents, 1998). Several of these reports were summarized and are presented in Phase III of the study.

In Phase IV the focus was on an examination of the sources of teacher supply and an assessment of the capacity of each source to meet future demand. This phase of the research assessed the depth of the substitute teacher pool and examined the career expectations of these substitutes, as well as the career expectations of new graduates from the Faculty of Education at Memorial University.

To assess the depth of the substitute teacher pool a Substitute Teacher Availability/Career Expectation Survey was developed and administered via telephone interviews. This survey inquired about the career expectations, job search activities, mobility and qualifications of these teachers. When this research was conducted in March of 2000, there were 1,616 teachers who had at least one day of substitute teaching for the current school year. An attempt was made to contact every active substitute teacher in the province and each one was telephoned at least once. Limited resources however, enabled only 1,069 (66%) to be contacted.

To assess the depth of the supply of new graduates from the Faculty of Education at Memorial University, a Graduate Career Expectation Survey was administered to all of

...the issues associated with the supply, demand and retention of teachers were complex and that policy changes and population trends in other parts of North America and the world were beginning to have an impact in the province of Newfoundland.

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Table 1: Teacher Dem

and, Supply and Retention: Fram

ework and M

ethodologyPhase

Objective

Population Sam

ple Size and D

ata Collection

Data Preparation

Data A

nalysis

Sam

ple R

eturn Rate

Phase 1 and 2: To profile the education

Review of Literature

By school district

Setting the context sector and identify the

Statistics Canada

structural changes taking

N

ewfoundland D

epartment of

place in the province

Education - E

SR’s and AGR’s

Phase 3: To identify and assess

Local Sources:

Review of Literature

All interview

s and C

onstant Teacher/educator dem

and the present and future

School districts in 10 out of 11 (90%

) Face-to-face interview

s focus groups w

ere C

omparative M

ethod

demands of school

New

foundland (10)

and focus groups: taped, transcribed

(CCM

)

districts N

LTA

H

uman Resource Issues Survey

and coded

To offer a national Follow

-up survey with each

11 out of 11 (100%)

Telephone interview: Current

perspective on the issues

Assistant D

irector of Personnel

Hiring Issues and C

oncerns SPSS

Descriptive

in teacher supply and

(NF)

Statistics (SPSS)

dem

and

Principals in each school district

Stratified sample - 30%

of Telephone interview

: Substitute

principals in each district; Teacher Availability Survey

SPSS D

escriptive

103 out of 115 (90% return)

Statistics (SPSS)

N

ational Sources:

Review of Literature

School districts in Ontario (3),

Judgment sam

ple H

uman Resource Issues Survey

All interview

s and

N

unavut (1)

focus groups w

ere

taped, transcribed

Teacher A

ssociations: Judgm

ent sample

Hum

an Resource Issues Survey and coded

BCT

F and CT

F

C

ollege of Teachers: Judgm

ent sample

Hum

an Resource Issues Survey

O

ntario and BC

National A

ssociations: Judgm

ent sample

Hum

an Resource Issues Survey

C

EA

and CA

SA

Phase 4: To exam

ine the sources Substitute teacher pool

1069 teachers out of 1616 were

Telephone interviews:

SPSS D

escriptive Statistics Teacher/educator

of supply and assess the

interviewed (66%

) Substitute Teacher Availability/

(SPSS)

supply capacity of each source

Career Expectations Survey

to m

eet future demand

Mem

orial University Faculty of

188 out of 229 students (82%)

Graduate Career E

xpectations

E

ducation Class of 2000

Survey Q

uestionnaire

M

emorial U

niversity 114 out of 140 students (81%

) G

raduate Career Expectations

Faculty of Education C

lass of

Survey Questionnaire

2001 - Secondary students

Phase 5: To assess the capacity to

Beginning teachers; (less than 4 256 out of 441 teachers (58%

) Telephone interview

s: Job SPSS

Descriptive

Teacher/educator retain current teachers in

years experience)

Satisfaction Survey

Statistics (SPSS)retention

the education system

Teachers eligible to retire by 323 out of 492 teachers (66%

) Telephone interview

s: Career SPSS

Descriptive

June 2001

Expectations for Retiring

Statistics (SPSS)

Teachers Survey

G

raduates from the Faculty of

320 out of 393 graduates (81%)

Cohort A

nalysis

(CCM

)

E

ducation Class of 1995

Quota Selection sam

ple - Career Transition of E

ducation

Attrition R

ates

11 graduates G

raduates Survey Phase 6:

Policy development

Recomm

endations

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the students who were slated to finish their program of studies by August 2000. These surveys focused on students’ aspirations, intentions, job seeking behaviour, mobility, academic training and other related matters. Student priorities of desired location and specialization were specifically examined. One hundred and eighty-seven out of 240 surveys (78%) were completed and returned.

During the fall semester of the 2000–2001 school year, while the initial data was being analyzed, it became increasingly clear that the greatest demand for teachers existed in the province’s secondary schools. As a result of this knowledge, the same Graduate Career Expectation Survey was distributed to all of the 140 students who were enrolled in the secondary education program at the Faculty of Education and who would graduate in the fall of 2001. One hundred and fourteen students (81%) returned the surveys.

Phase V focussed on the retention of current teachers. Surveys conducted by the Department of Education, a follow-up of the class of 1995 by Brown-Peters (2001), along with surveys of new and retiring teachers were the major components of this phase.

The Department of Education conducts annual follow-up surveys of university and college graduates. The main purpose of these surveys is to track the progress of graduates in their transition from school to work. Surveys are typically conducted a year following graduation, with the last survey of 1998 graduates being conducted in 1999. Data on education graduates from 1994 to 1998 were available from this source.

In order to gain insight into the percentage of graduates from the Faculty of Education who go on to work in the education sector, and to determine the practical utility of an education degree to graduates who work outside the education sector, a cohort analysis of the Faculty of Education Graduates from the class of 1995 was conducted by Brown-Peters (2001). Through a series of face-to-face interviews and electronic questionnaires, individuals explained why they left the teaching profession, what type of work they were doing, and how they felt their Education degree and teaching experience helped contribute to their success in alternate careers. The graduates who participated in the study were asked if they would consent to an interview/questionnaire being conducted with one of their work associates. These interviews/questionnaires were designed to obtain information pertaining to how the graduate’s knowledge, skills and performance were viewed in their place of employment, as well as to indicate how Education degrees helped to prepare graduates for work in sectors outside of teaching.

Statistics show that since most attrition occurs during the first two to five years teaching (Canadian Teachers’ Federation, 2000; Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation, 2000; Ingersoll 1999 and Oklahoma State Regents, 1998). To examine this aspect of teacher supply and demand, the job satisfaction of beginning teachers (less than 4 full years experience) was assessed. This assessment was done using the Job Satisfaction of Beginning Teacher Survey that was developed for the project. The survey asked these teachers to assess how their enthusiasm for teaching had changed since they began teaching, how satisfied they were with certain aspects of their work (e.g. salary, workload, support), how mobile they were and how long they planned to continue with teaching. At the time this research was conducted (March 2000) there were 441 full-time teachers with less than four full years teaching experience and an attempt was made to contact

...the greatest demand for teachers existed in the province’s secondary schools.

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each one for a telephone interview. While all 441 were telephoned at least once, contact was only possible with 256 or (58%).

Finally, since there are currently high numbers of teachers who retire as soon as they are eligible, a Career Expectation Survey for Retiring Teachers was developed and utilized to survey retiring teachers about their retirement plans. In June 2000, telephone interviews were conducted with 318 of the 492 teachers who would be eligible to retire in June 2001. The survey focused on retiring teachers’ perceptions of the conditions in schools today, assessing the factors that influenced their decision to retire, what they planned to do after retirement and what it would take for them to continue teaching after reaching full pension eligibility.

The knowledge gained from this research will count for very little if we do not reflect on and learn from the information provided. Phase VI draws some conclusions about the situation in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, examines some of the implications for policy and practice, and presents a series of recommendations to help manage the situation in the future.

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