Team ICE

Josh Mullis, Russ Santos, Emily Stransky, Ryan Hejduk

http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/files/imagecache/feature/files/features/print/20090528_snowball_earth.jpg

Question For Research

How will the continued trend in rising CO2 levels impact temperature and cause climate to go from warm to cold conditions?

Expectations● NASA - "A Chilling Possibility"

○ thawing of ice could disturb or halt large currents■ fresher, more buoyant water would not sink■ water would not travel down to the tropics

○ dropping temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees C○ similar to averages at the end of the last ice age

NASA, 2004. A Chilling Possibility. Science@NASA Headline News. Accessed via Internet, 10 May 2012: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic.

ExpectationsPast Evidence"How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet" -LiveScience

● ~8,200 years ago, 100 year cooling trend by 10.8 deg. C

● Water from Minnesota/Canada ice sheet broke out from Lake Agassiz

● Caused less than a 4 ft rise in sea level● No lakes like this now, but sensitive

Greenland ice sheet (Tornqvist et al. 2004)

Davidson, S., 2004. How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet. Live Science. Accessed via Internet, 10 May 2012: http://www.livescience.com/3751-global-warming-chill-planet.html.

ParametersModels Used: ● Ice Age, Last Glacial Maximum ● Global Warming with Enabled CO2 trend

Parameters of Importance:

● Annual Snow and Ice Coverage● Annual Surface Albedo● Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature (SST)● Deep Ocean Diffusion

Results: Air Surface Temperature

Results: Snow and Ice Coverage

Results: Ground Albedo

Results: Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature,LGM

Results: Annual Ocean-Mixed Layer Temperature, Future Climate Model

Results: Annual Second Layer Ocean Temperature, Future Climate Model

Analysis of Results● Doubling of CO2 results in an increase of air surface temperature● High albedo in LGM due to large amount of ice and snow cover, while

low albedo in Modern Climate model due to ice melting and more land surface visible

● Annual Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature for LGM had low temperatures near high and low latitudes and moderately higher temperatures in the equatorial region

● Annual Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature for future model is very similar to LGM model throughout the globe

● Annual Ocean Temperature of the second layer agrees with Mixed Layer model.

○ Cooling around Greenland, warming around equator

Speculation● Increase in CO2 and other GHGs

● Surface temperature increases causing a

warmer climate

● Hydrologic cycle is enhanced while glaciers and ice caps melt

● More freshwater enters oceans shutting

down the AMO

● Circulation of cold and warm waters halts

● Cooling increases and glaciers slowly grows leading to the next Ice Age

● Results remain consistent with initial aspects of the research

● Cannot determine if the rest of research theory will agree

Weaver, A. and Hillaire-Marcel, C., 2004. Global Warming and the Next Ice Age. Science 304, 400-402.

Conclusions● Ocean Mixed Layer Temperatures for both models are very similar,

showing that the ocean conditions for the LGM and future climate underwent the same conditions at some point, could lead to colder temperatures

● With this data alone available, we must infer that there could be a

climate change due to melting of ice into the ocean, until there is more data to back up the hypothesis

● EdGCM limits the amount of information we can compare

○ Only 100 years of predicted models○ Not as many parameters available to model

Discussion● Now that you have the information in front of you,

are you convinced that this could actually occur?○ If so, how quickly or abruptly?

● EdGCM limits deep ocean information

○ Difficult to set up○ Important information to have for theory

References● Davidson, S., 2004. How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet. Live Science. Accessed

via Internet, 10 May 2012: http://www.livescience.com/3751-global-warming-chill-planet.html.

● National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2004. A Chilling Possibility: By disturbing a

massive ocean current, melting arctic sea ice might trigger colder weather in Europe and North America. Science@NASA Headline News. Accessed via Internet, 10 May 2012: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic.

● Weaver, A. and Hillaire-Marcel, C., 2004. Global Warming and the Next Ice Age. Science

304, 400-402. Accessed via Internet, 9 May 2012: http://www.springerlink.com/content/r916q94v27030858/.

● "A Chilling Possibility." NASA. 2004. Web 10 May 2012 <http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/>

● Davidson, Sarah. "How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet." LiveScience. 17 Dec 2004. Web 10 May 2012. <http://www.livescience.com/3751-global-warming-chill-planet.html>