Tech natives 22042013_bartde_witte_watson_v01

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IBM Watson

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<ul><li>1.Watson from Jeopardy to Healthcare BDent, Bart de Witte, MAppSc Healthcare Industry Leader CEE / ALPS April 2013 Tech Natives Event, Wirtschaftskammer, WienFollow us @IBMWatsonFollow me @swisshealth20 2013 International Business Machines Corporation</li></ul> <p>2. watson - jeopardy healthcare &amp; datawatson in healthcare 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 3. Jeopardy Broad/Open Domain Complex Language High Precision Accurate Confidence High SpeedHuman Language Words by themselves have no meaning Only grounded in human cognition Words navigate, align and communicate aninfinite space of intended meaning Computers can not ground words to humanexperiences to derive meaning 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 4. Why Jeopardy?Grand Challenge 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 5. The world is dying of thirst in an ocean of data 90%80%20% of the worlds data of the worlds data amount of data was created in thetoday istraditional systemslast two years unstructuredleverage today 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 6. Easy Question(LN (12,546,798* )) ^ 2 / 34,576.460.00885 Select Payment where Owner = David Jones and Type (Product) = Laptop Owner Serial Number David Jones 45322190-AKInvoice #Vendor PaymentINV10895 MyBuy$104.56Serial Number TypeInvoice #45322190-AK LapTopINV10895 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 7. Hard QuestionComputer programs are natively explicit, fast and exacting in their calculation overnumbers and symbols.But Natural Language is implicit, highly contextual, ambiguousand often imprecise. Structured Where was X born?One day, from among his city views of Ulm, Otto chose a water color to send to Albert Einstein as a remembrance of Einsteins birthplace. Unstructured X ran this?If leadership is an art then surely Jack Welch has proved himself a master painter during his tenure at GE. 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 8. Informed Decision Making: Search vs. Expert Q&amp;ADecision MakerHas Question Search Engine Distills to 2-3 KeywordsFinds Documents containing Keywords Reads Documents, Finds Answers ExpertDelivers Documents based on PopularityFindsDecision Evidence &amp; Analyzes Maker Understands Question Asks NL Question Produces Possible Answers &amp; Evidence Analyzes Evidence, Computes ConfidenceConsiders Answer &amp; Evidence Delivers Response, Evidence &amp; Confidence8 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 9. Why is Jeopardy! so Difficult?answering complex natural language questions requires more than keyword evidenceIn May 1898 Portugal celebrated the In May 1898 Portugal celebrated theIn May, Gary arrived in India In May, Gary arrived in India400th anniversary of this explorers 400th anniversary of this explorers after he celebrated his after he celebrated hisarrival in India arrival in India anniversary in Portugal anniversary in Portugal LegendKeyword Hitarrived inReference Textcelebrated celebrated Answer Red Text Weak evidenceIn May In May 1898 400th anniversary anniversary This evidence suggests Portugalin Portugal Gary is the answer BUT the system must learn thatarrival in keyword matching may be weak relative to otherIndiaIndia types of evidence explorer Gary 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 10. What It Takes to compete against Top Human Jeopardy! PlayersEach dot actual historical human Jeopardy! games Top human players are remarkablygood.Winning Human Winning HumanPerformancePerformanceGrand Champion Grand Champion Human HumanPerformance Performance 2007 QA Computer System 2007 QA Computer System More Confident More Confident Less Confident Less Confident 2013 International Business Machines Corporation10 11. Levering Algorithms for Deeper EvidenceIn May 1898 Portugal celebrated the In May 1898 Portugal celebrated the On the 27th of May 1498, Vasco da On the 27th of May 1498, Vasco da400th anniversary of this explorers 400th anniversary of this explorersGama landed in Kappad Beach Gama landed in Kappad Beacharrival in India. arrival in India.Legend Temporal Reasoning Statistical Paraphrasing celebrated landed in GeoSpatial Reasoning PortugalReference Text Answer May 1898 400th anniversaryDate27th May 1498 MatchStronger evidence can be much Statisticharder to find and score al Para-arrival in phrases Search far and wide Explore many hypotheses Geo- Find judge evidenceSpatiaIndial Kappad Beach Many inference algorithmsReaso ningand the evidence is still notVasco da100% certainexplorer Gama 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 12. Watson is a Massively Parallel Probabilistic Evidence-Based Architecture DeapQA generates and scores many hypotheses using an extensible collection if Natural Language Processing, Machine Learning and Reasoning Algoritms. These gather and weigh evidence over both structured and unstructured content to determine the answer with the best confidence Learned Modelshelp combine and weigh the EvidenceEvidenceSources Answer ModelsModels SourcesDeepInquiry Answer Evidence ModelsModelsEvidenceScoringRetrieval ScoringPrimaryCandidateModelsModelsSearchAnswer GenerationInquiry/TopicInquiryHypothesisHypothesis and EvidenceFinal Confidence SynthesisAnalysisDecomposition GenerationScoring Merging &amp; Ranking HypothesisHypothesis and Evidence Generation Scoring Responses with Confidence 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 13. DeepQA: Incremental Progress in Answering Precisionon the Jeopardy Challenge: 6/2007-11/2010IBM Watson Playing in the Winners Cloud v0.8 11/10 V0.7 04/10 v0.6 10/09v0.5 05/09 v0.4 12/08v0.3 08/08v0.2 05/08v0.1 12/07Baseline 12/06 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 14. Healthcare &amp; DataIBM Confidential 2013 IBM 15. Our Watson Healthcare strategy solves 3 problems in clinical practiceRelated 3 problemsmedicine is a science but practiced as an artImpossible to keep up and have access to existing knowledgeThe number of untapped information that can be used asa source of knowledge is growing exponentially 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 16. Our Watson Healthcare strategy solves 3 problems in clinical practicemedicine is a science but practiced as an art Estimated 30-40% of care in UK not based on available scientific evidenceGrol, R. and Grimshaw, J. (2003) 5 year gap between publication of guidelines and changes in routine practice inWestern healthcare systems, Lomas et al (1993) 1 out of 5 diagnoses are wrong Unprecedented research commissioned by the EU has found that 23% of EUcitizens have been a victim or the member of a family who has been a victim ofa serious medical error in a local hospital or a serious medical error from amedicine that was prescribed by a doctor. In all, only 17% of Austrians and Germans said that hospital patients were verylikely or fairly likely to be able to avoid a serious medical error. 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 17. Our Watson Healthcare strategy solves 3 problems in clinical practiceImpossible to keep up and have access to existing knowledge medical knowledge doubles every five years 81% of the physicians in the US report spending 5 hours or less a monthreading medical journals Medicine has become too complex and only 20% of the knowledge cliniciansuse is evidence based 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 18. Our Watson Healthcare strategy solves 3 problems in clinical practice The number of untapped information that can be used as a source of knowledge is growing exponentially 16000 Hospitals worldwide collect data 80% of the data is unstructured and stored in hundred of forms such as labresults, images and medical transcripts data will grow 800% over the next five years 90% of the digital data has been generated in the last 2 years unstructured data will grow 50 times faster then structured data patient monitoring equipment pumps out on average 1000 readings persecond or 86400 reading a day Data is getting more social. . . 20M articles on Wikipedia, 30B pieces of Facebook content are sharedmonthly There are 156M public blogs, 12 terabites on tweets generates every day 70 percent of physicians report that at least one of their patients is sharinghealth measurement data with them 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 19. Big Data: this is just the beginning1009000Sensors&amp; Devices8000 Percentage ofPercent of uncertain data80 uncertain data Volume in Exabytes7000606000SocialMedia500040You are here4000VoIP203000EnterpriseData0 2010 2015Source: IBM Global Technology Outlook - 2012 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 20. Healthcare industry is beset with some of the most complexinformation challenges we collectively faceMedicine has become too complex.Only about 20% of the knowledge clinicians use today is evidence-based.Steven Shapiro, Chief Medical &amp; Scientific Officer, UPMC Steven Shapiro, Chief Medical &amp; Scientific Officer, UPMC 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 21. Watson in HealthcareOncology AdvisorIBM Confidential 2013 IBM 22. NEJM Medical Concept Annotations Attribute extractionsDiseasesSymptoms MedicationsModifiers 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 23. Putting the proper pieces together at the point of impactcan be life changingFammptoMe . Histo y Pat HistorSy dic Fin tions.a ry din difficulty swallowingfevermsDiagnosis Models Confidencegs dry mouth Symptoms PatientthirstSymptomsFamilyMedications Findings anorexia frequent urination dizzinessRenal Failure HistoryHistoryno abdominal pain no back pain no cough UTI no diarrheaDiabetesOral cancer History FamilyBladder cancer HemochromatosisInfluenzaPurpura Graves Disease(Thyroid Autoimmune)Hypokalemia cutaneous lupusFindings Medications History Patient osteoporosis hyperlipidemia Esophagitis frequent UTI hypothyroidism Alendronate pravastatin levothyroxinehydroxychloroquine urine dipstick: leukocyte esterase supine 120/80 mm HGheart rate: 88 bpm urine culture: E. Coli 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 24. Watson in Healthcare Project Goals Build an intelligence engine to provide patient-specific diagnostic test and treatment recommendations Provide actionable treatment recommendations Built on the cognitive computing technologies developed in Watson by IBM Research Developed and Trained in collaboration with partners who are experts in their domain 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 25. Working Together to Beat CancerCancer is an insidious disease and the second highest cause of death 1 in 43X individuals will die from cancerrate cancer cost climbs vs. std. health costs or 15-18% / yr. X20%263.8Bof cancer cases receive theoverall costs of cancer inwrong diagnosis initially with the US in 2010 some as high as 44%$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$ ++IBM$$$$$$$$$$Working Together to Beat Cancer Source: American Cancer Society, National Health Institute 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 26. Creating a Corpus of Knowledge for Cancer Care Ingestion of NCCN guidelines for breast cancer and lung cancer: Roughly 500,000 unique combinations of breast cancer patient attributes. Roughly 50,000 unique combinations of lung cancer patient attributes. Over 600,000 pieces of evidence ingested, from 42 different publications/publishers, including: The Breast Journal, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (Clinical Practice Guidelines, Drug and Biologics compendium, et al.), American Journal Of Hematology, Annals Of Neurology, CA: A Cancer Journal For Clinicians, Cancer Journal, Cochrane, EBSCO, Hematological Oncology, Hepatology, International Journal Of Cancer, Journal Of Gene Medicine, Journal of Clinical Oncology, Journal of Oncology Practice, Massachusetts Medical Society Journal Watch, Massachusetts Medical Society New England Journal Of Medicine, Merck, Nephrology, UptoDate, Clinical Lung Cancer, Current Problems in Cancer, Cancer Treatment Reviews, Elseviers Monographs in Cancer (multiple), Clinical Breast Cancer, European Journal of Cancer, Lung Cancer (the journal). Watson has received 14,700 hours of training from clinicians Accurate: in the cases run, its 90% accurate, the goal is 100% accurancy, today physicians are about 50% accurate. IBM Confidential 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 27. 27 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 28. 28 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 29. 29 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 30. 30 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 31. 31 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 32. Watsons Five Core Capabilities Analyzes large volumes of unstructured Combines large amounts of unstructured data and structured datawith structured data to be analyzed togetherUnderstands ambiguous and impreciseInterprets and understands naturalquestions using sophisticated natural languagelanguage questionsalgorithms Generates and evaluates hypotheses and Identifies many answers to questions withquantifies confidence in answersevidence to "explain" rationale for answersSupports iterativeEnables iterative and interactive question anddialogue to refine resultsanswering to refine and improve resultsAdapts and learns toLearns from additional evidence, additionalquestions and mistakes to improve accuracyimprove results over time over time 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 33. Theapplicationofwhatweknowwillhaveabiggerimpactthananydrugortechnologylikelytobeintroducedinthenextdecade.SirMuirGray,DirectorNHSNationalKnowledgeService&amp;NHSChiefKnowledgeOfficer 2013 International Business Machines Corporation 34. 2013 International Business Machines Corporation </p>