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combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on

Business News Network (BNN) Television. Mr. Vialoux also offers advice to the Horizons

Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC).

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Tech Talk: TimingTheMarket.ca April 13, 2015

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Tech Talk for Monday, April 13, 2015

Equity Trends (summary at end) The S&P 500 Index gained 35.10 points (1.70%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 65.50% from 56.40%. Percent is intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 72.00-% from 68.80%. Percent remains intermediate overbought, but is trending higher.





Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 Index increased last week to 71.60% from 70.20% and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week to 57.37% from 54.98% and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.





The TSX Composite Index gained 361.81 points (2.41%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above 15,349.43 (Score: 1.0). The Index remains above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1.0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive (Score: 3.0). Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increase last week to 67.20% from 48.80%. Percent is intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 49.20% from 44.40%. Percent is trending higher.





The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 294.41 points (1.66%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Average moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score improved to 1.0 from 0.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks was unchanged last week and closed at its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 59.45% from 57.22% and moved above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.





The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 109.04 points (2.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Neutral. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Technical score remains at 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Russell 2000 Index added 109.04 points (2.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neural from Positive. Technical score slipped to 2.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained162.52 points (1.89%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Technical score remains at 0.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 65.70 points (1.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




The Nikkei Average gained 594.84 points (3.08%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above 19,778.60. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Neutral. Technical score improved to 3.0 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Europe 350 iShares gained $0.55 (1.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remained at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Shanghai Composite Index gained another 208.53 points (5.45%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




iShares Emerging Markets jumped another $1.64 (3.98%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Equity Markets: Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 10th

Green: Increase from the previous day Red: Decrease from the previous day

<continued>




Currencies The U.S. Dollar Index gained 1.87 (1.91%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Euro dropped 2.83 (2.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Euro fell below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




The Canadian Dollar slipped US0.13 cents (0.16%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Canuck Buck remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




The Japanese Yen slipped 0.35 (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen fell below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




Commodities (summary at end) The CRB Index added 1.03 points (0.48%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. Technical score slipped to 1.5 from 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.

<continued>




Gasoline added $0.05 per gallon (2.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Gas moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. Technical score improved to 2.5 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

<continued>




Crude Oil added $2.50 per barrel (5.09%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Crude remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remained at 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




Natural Gas fell another $0.20 per MBtu (7.38%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. “Natty” remains below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Neutral. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




The S&P Energy Index gained 17.57 points (3.09%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




The Philadelphia Oil Services Index gained 13.07 points (6.71%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remained at 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Gold added $3.70 per ounce (0.31%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Gold remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. Technical score remains at 2.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




Silver dropped $0.32 per ounce (1.92%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Neutral. Silver moved below its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Positive. Technical score dropped to 0.5 from 2.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




The AMEX Gold Bug Index added 4.15 points (2.48%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. Technical score remained at 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




Platinum added $16.10 per ounce (1.39%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. PLAT remains above its 20 day MA. Relative strength remains positive. Technical score: 2.0.

Palladium gained $29.75 per ounce (3.99%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. PALL moved above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Technical score improved to 1.5. Momentum indicators: trending up.





Copper was unchanged last week. Intermediate trend is up. Copper remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. Technical score slipped to 2.5 from 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.




The TSX Metals & Mining Index gained 25.45 points (3.65%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remains at 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are mixed.




Lumber fell $9.80 (3.54%) last week. Trend remains down. Lumber remains below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P 500 turned negative. Technical score dropped to 0.0 from 0.5.

The Grain ETN fell $1.06 (2.93%) last week. Trend remains down. Units fell below its 20 day MA. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Neutral. Technical score fell to 0.0 from 1.5 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.





The Agriculture ETF added $0.95 (1.75%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Technical score remained at 3.0 out of 3.0. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.




Commodities: Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 10th

<continued>




Industry Sectors: Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 10th

Seasonal: Positive, Negative, or Neutral on a relative basis applying EquityClock.com charts Trend: Up, Down, or Neutral Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index: Positive, Negative, or Neutral Momentum based on the average of Stochastics, RSI, and MACD: Up, Down, or Mixed Twenty-Day Moving Average: Above, or Below Green: Upgrade from last week Red: Downgrade from last week




Interest Rates The yield on 10 year Treasuries increase 4.7 basis points (2.47%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

Price of the long term Treasury ETF fell $1.11 (0.85%) last week. Intermediate trend remains Neutral. Units moved below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.





The Vix The VIX Index fell another 2.01 (13.78%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

Other Issues First quarter earnings reports become a focus this week. Thirty five S&P 500 companies and seven Dow Jones Industrial Average companies are scheduled to report this week. Reports from the financial services sector will be notable. Excluding Bank of America that reported a non-recurring loss in the first quarter last year, earnings by the sector will increase 0.8% on a year-over-year basis. According to www.Factset.com year-over-year earnings by S&P 500 companies will fall 4.8%. Quarter-over-quarter earnings in the first quarter will fall 4.6% and revenues will drop 3.0%. Primary reason for the drop is strength in the U.S. Dollar Index. Moreover, quarter-over-quarter earnings in the second quarter are expected to drop another 2.3% and revenues are expected to decline 3.5%. 101 S&P 500 companies have announced first quarter guidance to date: 85 companies announced negative guidance while 16 companies announced positive guidance.

Economic news this week is expected to show a slight recovery in the U.S. economy in March from the weather related slowdown in February. Focus is on March Housing Starts to be released on Thursday.

Short term technical signals (e.g. short term momentum indicators, 20 day moving average) show that most equity markets and sectors are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

http://www.factset.com/




Intermediate technical signals (e.g. Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages, Bullish Percent Index) also are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

Seasonal influences for equity markets around the world are positive until the beginning of May. Seasonal influences during a U.S. Presidential cycle Pre-election year can remain positive until July. Selected sectors (e.g. industrial, consumer discretionary, materials) have a history of underperformance between now and early May. Technology has a history of outperformance between now and mid-May.

A study from 1945 to present on U.S. equity markets showing impact of the first increase in the Fed Fund rate showed that the S&P 500 Index suffered an average drop of 10% sometime during the six month period prior to the first increase in the Fed Fund rate. Assuming that the first increase in the Fed Fund rate this year occurs in September, the U.S. equity market is within the six month envelope for a 10% correction.

International events could have an impact on equity markets this week. The Government of Greece is close to running out of international currency to pay its debts. Negotiations continue. Discussions about framework of the Iran nuclear agreement continue. Venezuela is close to government breakdown. Terrorist hot spots seem to surface on a regular basis.

The Bottom Line The battle between favourable seasonal influences until early May for equity prices and declining earnings news from the U.S. continues. Preferred strategy is to retain seasonally attractive economically sensitive North American and international equities for now, but be prepared to take profits if technical indicators begin to deteriorate significantly. International equities currently appear more attractive than U.S. equities until early May.

This Week’s Earnings




Friday’s StockTwits Hong Kong Hang Seng breaking above ascending triangle pattern, suggesting significant gains ahead.

S&P 500 Index punching through resistance at 2,900.

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bullish. Breakouts: $TWC, $MDLZ,$KMI, $A, $GE,$WM. No breakdowns

TSX 60 Index breaks to a 7 year high.






Technical Action by Individual Equities and ETFs on Thursday After 10:15 AM, another 16 S&P 500 stocks broke intermediate resistance levels. Notable were breakouts by Health Care stocks (A, ABBV, BSX, CERN, HCA, PFE, SYK).

Among TSX 60 stocks, Enerplus broke to a recent high.

Grain prices remain under pressure





Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual

stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate

cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts have been updated

recently. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment Following is a link: http://www.equityclock.com/2015/04/12/stock-market-outlook-for-april-13-2015/ Note comments on the S&P 500 Index, S&P Technology Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index.

BW: Information on the Authors of Tech Talk follows on the next page.

http://www.equityclock.com/

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

http://www.equityclock.com/2015/04/12/stock-market-outlook-for-april-13-2015/

http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/clip_image057.jpg



About the Authors

Don Vialoux

Donald Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a past president and director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). Mr. Vialoux has 45 years of experience in the investment industry, including prominent positions held at Richardson Greenshields and RBC Investments. He is the author of a daily letter on equity markets, which is available free at TimingTheMarket.ca. The Web site has recently received an average of 200,000 hits per day from 130 countries. Mr. Vialoux is also the author of a weekly column published at GlobeAndMail.com that combines technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis. He is a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. Mr. Vialoux also offers advice to the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC). He holds the designation of Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

Jon Vialoux

Jon Vialoux, co-founder of Tech Talk, is a Research Analyst at Horizons Investment Management, Inc where he offers advice to the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC). He is the author and founder of EquityClock.com, which offers the largest source of seasonal profiles for investments on the Internet. Mr. Vialoux is also co-creator of the financial resource Web site, TimingTheMarket.ca, which offers technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis of the markets. Jon’s market analysis and commentary has been published in the Financial Post, Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, and a number of electronic media sources, such as SeekingAlpha.com and GlobeInvestor.com. He is also a frequent presenter on Business News Network (BNN) Television. Previously, he provided analysis for State Street Global Advisors.

#####

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for

information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc. SEE: About the Authors, below. Security positions held or not held by Mr. Vialoux will be indicated at the end of each Tech Talk report. Comments in Tech Talk reports are the opinion of Mr. Vialoux. They are based on technical, fundamental and/or seasonal data that is believed to be accurate. The comments are free. Mr. Vialoux receives no remuneration from any source for these services. Comments should not be considered as advice to buy or to sell a security. Investors, who respond to comments in Tech Talk, are financially responsible for their own transactions. All charts in Tech Talk come from StockCharts.com. Stock Charts can be accessed at no cost through www.stockcharts.com.

http://www.stockcharts.com/

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