technical analysis these levels for intraday trading are situated at 1.5762, 1.5706 and 1.5641....
TRANSCRIPT
23/03/2012
Technical Analysis
Industry outlook
The outlook for EUR/USD is deemed to be bearish due to a
formidable resistance located at 1.3487. Recently the pair has
bounced off 1.3291/1.3325 and is now expected to pierce
through 1.3112 (55 day sma) while being on the way towards
1.3004.
Traders’ sentiment
Traders’ sentiment is currently mixed on EUR/USD currency
pair, since the share of long and short positions on the market is
nearly the same, being 47 and 53 per cent, accordingly.
Long position opened
The break of the short-term resistance line 1.3258 would pave
the way for the pair to rise up to 1.3316. The clearance of the
second daily resistance level would establish a new target for
traders at 1.3379.
Short position opened
Bearish traders will pay attention to the key support levels in
order to close their deals. The primary forecast target is 1.3137.
If the pair erodes this level, then it might rebound from S2 of
1.3074 or S3 of 1.3016.
EUR/USD
“We see scope for EURUSD to trade lower in the coming weeks, based on the risk that Treasury yields will overshoot to the upside relative to what we regard as realistic Fed policy expectations" - BNP Paribas (based on CNBC)
EUR/USD to slide down
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Friday, March 23, 2012 08:00 GMT
Trends
Daily
Weekly Monthly
Resistance 3 1.3379 1.3431 1.4058
Resistance 2 1.3316 1.3311 1.3772
Resistance 1 1.3258 1.3243 1.3547
Pivot Point 1.3195 1.3123 1.3261
Support 1 1.3137 1.3055 1.3036
Support 2 1.3074 1.2935 1.2750
Support 3 1.3016 1.2867 1.2525
Industry outlook
Even though support at 108.71 managed to halt EUR/JPY from
nose-diving further, it is likely to be breached in the nearest
future. This would allow for the pair to dip to 106.08 (uptrend
supports).
Traders’ sentiment
The portion of bulls has diminished to 44%, whereas bears now
constitute 56% of the total amount of traders who have opened
positions on EUR/JPY.
Long position opened
Largest brokers set a new long position target as a break of
110.11 may become an encouraging bullish sign en route to
111.27. If the uptrend remains, the third target for intraday
trading will be 112.09.
Short position opened
A part of the brokers will close their short positions near initial
support level at 108.13. In case of downtrend continuation, the
pair might rebound from the S2 at 107.31 or S3 at 106.15.
“Weak data is giving traders an opportunity to take profits. If the recent falls end as a mere correction, the subsequent rally would be stronger thanks to this pullback” - BTM UFJ (based on CNBC)
EUR/JPY to show more weakness
Trends
Daily
Weekly Monthly
Resistance 3 112.09 113.22 123.00
Resistance 2 111.27 111.60 116.48
Resistance 1 110.11 110.76 112.29
Pivot Point 109.29 109.14 105.77
Support 1 108.13 108.30 101.58
Support 2 107.31 106.68 95.06
Support 3 106.15 105.84 90.87
Friday, March 23, 2012 08:00 GMT EUR/JPY
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Industry outlook
GBP/USD has low chances of eroding 1.5927/92 and thus will be
headed towards 1.5760/45, which guards lower levels at 1.5643
and 1.5599. In the long-run (within three months from now) the
pair is targeting 1.5235.
Traders’ sentiment
There has been no change in traders’ sentiment towards GBP/
USD. Shorts still form 73% of the market, while longs compose
only 27% of it.
Long position opened
The price might rebound from the first resistance level at
1.5883, so major dealers are planning to close some of their
long positions near this level. Subsequent goals for bulls are
1.5948 and 1.6004.
Short position opened
Largest investors might have placed their take profit orders at
the key support levels. These levels for intraday trading are
situated at 1.5762, 1.5706 and 1.5641.
GBP/USD to be rejected by 1.5927/92
Trends
Daily
Weekly Monthly
Resistance 3 1.6004 1.6194 1.6404
Resistance 2 1.5948 1.6028 1.6197
Resistance 1 1.5883 1.5935 1.6057
Pivot Point 1.5827 1.5769 1.5850
Support 1 1.5762 1.5676 1.5710
Support 2 1.5706 1.5510 1.5503
Support 3 1.5641 1.5417 1.5363
“The outlook for sterling depends on the economy - it could take a long time for recovery to take root, and sterling probably will only rally when there are signs that's happening” - Societe Generale (based on Reuters)
Friday, March 23, 2012 08:00 GMT GBP/USD
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Industry outlook
Key support at 82.38/23 should withstand present bearish
pressure in order for the pair to be able to recommence its
advancement after correction is over. The initial resistance is
situated at 83.02, followed by 83.98 and 84.51.
Traders’ sentiment
USD/JPY remains overbought, since the amount of bullish
market participants (72%) greatly exceeds the amount of
bearish ones (28%).
Long position opened
FX market participants have put their take profit orders at the
key resistance points of intraday trading. Some of the investors
might close their deals at 83.22 and 83.91. The highest level is at
84.36.
Short position opened
Major market participants with short positions will hold their
deals until the price slides down to the initial support level at
82.08. If the price continues the downtrend, the dealers might
wait for the Greenback to depreciate down to 81.63 or 80.94.
“We like the idea of the U.S. dollar becoming stronger over the year. There is a divergence between the two economies, with the U.S. recovery and not quite as compelling a story in Japan" - Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)
USD/JPY to trade above 82.38/23
Trends
Daily
Weekly Monthly
Resistance 3 84.36 86.64 88.83
Resistance 2 83.91 85.40 85.25
Resistance 1 83.22 84.43 83.19
Pivot Point 82.77 83.19 79.61
Support 1 82.08 82.22 77.55
Support 2 81.63 80.98 73.97
Support 3 80.94 80.01 71.91
Friday, March 23, 2012 08:00 GMT USD/JPY
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Industry outlook
The pair is currently moving away from 0.9066 and will soon
encounter 0.9206 (20 day sma). Overcoming the latter level
would increase the possibility of extension of the rally up to
0.9342 and 0.9595.
Traders’ sentiment
According to SWFX sentiment index, the majority of traders
(70%) have preferred to open bullish positions on USD/CHF,
expecting the US Dollar to gain in value.
Long position opened
Bullish investors should pay attention to the key resistance
levels for intraday trading. R1 is situated at 0.9175, followed by
R2 and R3 at 0.9218 and 0.9258, respectively.
Short position opened
In case of dips, another rally may start after rebounding from
the initial support level at 0.9092. However, assuming that the
bearish momentum does not weaken, investors will pay
attention to the lower support levels at 0.9052 and 0.9009.
“The minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs per euro remains front and center of the SNB’s monetary policy” - SNB (based on Bloomberg)
USD/CHF to challenge 0.9206
Trends
Daily
Weekly Monthly
Resistance 3 0.9258 0.9472 0.9621
Resistance 2 0.9218 0.9403 0.9460
Resistance 1 0.9175 0.9278 0.9252
Pivot Point 0.9135 0.9209 0.9091
Support 1 0.9092 0.9084 0.8883
Support 2 0.9052 0.9015 0.8722
Support 3 0.9009 0.8890 0.8514
Friday, March 23, 2012 08:00 GMT USD/CHF
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
EUR/USD 1 day
Outlook
1 week
Outlook
1month Outlook
MACD (12; 26; 9) BUY BUY SELL
RSI (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
ADX (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
CCI (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
SAR (0.02; 0.2) BUY BUY SELL
AROON (14) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
Alligator (13; 8; 5) BUY NEUTRAL SELL
GBP/USD 1 day
Outlook
1 week
Outlook
1 month
Outlook CD (12; 26; 9) BUY BUY BUY
RSI (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
ADX (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
CCI (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
SAR (0.02; 0.2) BUY BUY SELL
AROON (14) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
Alligator (13; 8; 5) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL
USD/JPY 1 day
Outlook
1 week
Outlook
1 month
Outlook MACD (12; 26; 9) SELL BUY BUY
RSI (13) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) SELL BUY NEUTRAL
ADX (13) NEUTRAL BUY SELL
CCI (13) NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL
SAR (0.02; 0.2) BUY BUY SELL
AROON (14) NEUTRAL BUY SELL
Alligator (13; 8; 5) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL
USD/CHF 1 day
Outlook
1 week
Outlook
1 month
Outlook MACD (12; 26; 9) SELL SELL BUY
RSI (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) BUY NEUTRAL SELL
ADX (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
CCI (13) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
SAR (0.02; 0.2) SELL SELL BUY
AROON (14) NEUTRAL SELL SELL
Alligator (13; 8; 5) SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
EUR/JPY 1 day
Outlook
1 week
Outlook
1 month
Outlook MACD (12; 26; 9) SELL BUY BUY
RSI (13) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL
ADX (13) NEUTRAL BUY SELL
CCI (13) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL
SAR (0.02; 0.2) BUY BUY SELL
AROON (14) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL
Alligator (13; 8; 5) NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL
TRADING SIGNALS
Friday, March 23, 2012 08:00 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend; Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend; Neutral – no specific trend for the pair. Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods; SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods. Lines Resistance 1, 2, 3 – a resistance level calculated with the help of the standard Pivot method; Pivot – a point calculated on the basis of High, Low and Close prices of the preceding period; Support 1, 2, 3 – a support level calculated with the help of the standard Pivot method.
Indicators MACD - Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator; RSI – Relative strength index - compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset; Stochastic - technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period; ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators; CCI - oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold; SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend; AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue; Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction.
Chart notations
■ Monthly resistance ■ Weekly resistance ■ Daily resistance ■ Daily support ■ Weekly support ■ Monthly support
Max – the highest projection set by the industry sentiment
Mean – the average price based on the projections of the industry sentiment
Min – the lowest projection set by the industry sentiment
EXPLANATIONS
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
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