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Technical Review Committee Meeting March 16, 2011

Debra Lew

National Renewable Energy LaboratoryGolden, Colorado USA

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study - Phase 2:

Base Scenario

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

Move to new production simulation tool

• Move from MAPS to Plexos because Plexos has capability to optimize around cycling/ramping costs/constraints and ability to model subhourly

• Need to build Plexos model. This is an opportunity to ensure base scenario is realistic and reflects current state of knowledge.

• Start with WECC TEPPC 2019 database, already built by Plexos

• Remember that WWSIS2 is not a siting study, so leveraging other, stakeholder-vetted siting efforts will be useful

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

WWSIS Phase 1: Siting Scenario

• Held wind energy (10, 20, 30%) and solar (1, 3, 5%) targets constant, as opposed to serving loads with the cheapest renewable source

• Solar was 70% CSP with 6 hrs storage and 30% rooftop PV. No centralized PV.

• Different targets for WestConnect and rest of WECC

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

Trade-offs in transmission buildouts

• Different siting scenarios behaved similarly in terms of operational impacts, when significant BA cooperation was assumed.

• Therefore we propose to select only one methodology for siting, although we will build it out to different penetration levels.

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

Build on other efforts

• Include centralized PV – now have reasonable dataset

• WECC considering study requests now and likely to include in next tranche:• 2022 33% RPS (6 GW solar in

S. NV, 9 GW WY wind)• 2032 33% RPS (12 GW WY

wind)• 2022 dataset update by end

Aug

• Last year’s TEPPC 2029 33% RPS• Renewables sited using

Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) model

• Some issues in making this case work

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

2029 WREZ 33% Base Case

Source: WECC TEPPC SWG

32% 48%

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

Base Scenario

• Model year• Equal amounts of renewables throughout WECC• More solar especially in southwest• Increase PV from phase 1

• 50/50 split of PV and CSP. PV includes centralized PV plants

• Wind/Solar Siting Scenario • Use WREZ model results – consider starting with 2029 WREZ

33% case

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