technical wind energy potential in europe: main assumptions
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Monique Hoogwijk 9 November 2006. Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions. Wind energy potential. What determines the potential of wind energy? Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor; Area availability (km 2 ); Power density of wind park (MW/km 2 );. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Monique Hoogwijk
9 November 2006
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Wind energy potential
What determines the potential of wind energy?- Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor; - Area availability (km2);- Power density of wind park (MW/km2);
Potential = Power Density * Available Area * Load Factor
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Wind electricity costsCosts;
– Isp turbine (f(Rated power);
– O & M;
– Installation costs;
– Overhead costs (concession, Environmental Impact Assessment);
– Distribution costs (not included);
– Grid integrated costs (back up, spinning reserve, discarded/storage costs) (not included);
Output; – Wind resource, rated power
Annuity;– Interest rate
– Economic lifetime turbine
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Technical Parameters
• Rated power • Hub height• (Rotor diameter)• Power density• Current installed turbines and replacement rate
• Onshore and offshore• For 2006; 2020 and 2030
+ wind speed = load factor
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Historical Development
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year
Avg
rat
ed p
ower
win
d tu
rbin
es
(kW
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Est
imat
ed r
otor
dia
mte
rs (
m)rated power
rotor diameter
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Overview Offshore Projects
Source: Van Hulle et al., 2004.
Name project
Country Wind farm areakm2
Nr of WT
WT rated powerMW
Power density MW/km2
WT rotor diameter m
Horns Rev
DK 20 80 2 8 80
Roedsand DK 23 72 2.3 7 82.4
C-power BE 14 60 3.6 15 104
DOWEC NL 45 80 6 11 129
North Hoyle
UK 5.4 30 2 11 80
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Proposal Assumptions
onshore offshore
Current average
Future (2030)
Current average
Future (2030)
Rated power (MW) 1.5 2 2-6 10
Rotor diameter (m) 60-80 80 80-129 150
Hub height (m) 80 80 150
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Cost Parameters
• Main investment costs• Turbine costs
• Foundation
• Electric installation
• Grid-connection
• Consultancy
• Land costs
• Financial costs, as security
• Road construction
• Main Operation and maintenance costs
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Onshore Offshore b
Share total investment costs (%)
Total investment costs (€/kW) 800 – 1100 1200 – 2000
Turbine 74-82 30-50
Foundation 1-6 15-25
Electric installation 1-9 0-30
Grid-connection 2-9 15-30
Consultancy, land, 1-3 8
Land 1-3
Financial costs 1-5
Road construction 1-5
others 8EWEA, 2003; Junginger, 2005 ; ECN, 2004
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Cost developments over time
• Bottom up estimates
– up-scaling
– material
– rotor diameter
– etc
• Experience curves
– Historically derived
– Progress ratio and future doubling
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Onshore Experience Curves
Cumulative global installed onshore wind capacity (MW)
1000 2000 5000 10000 20000 30000
Tu
rnke
y in
sta
llatio
n p
rice
(Eu
ro(2
00
1)/k
W)
700
800
900
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2500
Turnkey prices large wind farms Turnkey prices small wind farms
PR = 81% R2 = 0.978
PR = 82% R2 = 0.875
1990
1998
1992
2001
Source: Junginger, PhD thesis 2005
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Cost reductions Offshore
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Inv
es
tme
nt
co
sts
(E
uro
(20
01
)/k
W)
Wind turbine Foundation Int. grid Ext. grid Installation Other
Left bar: cost in 2003. Middle bar: Sustained diffusion. Right bar: Stagnating growth.
Ref. wind farm
73%
63%
74%76%
61% 64%
Wind farmlong distance
Wind farmOWECOP
Source: Junginger, Faaij & Turkenburg, 2003, Accepted for publication by Wind Engineering
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Operation and Maintenance
• Insurance, service and spare parts, land rent etc• Varies during lifetime 2-3 % up to 5% of
investment costs ( ~ 1 ¢/kWh).• O&M costs can be reduced over time• Here, reduction assumed with investment cost
reduction
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Future Developments
• Typical Progress Ratios wind turbines: 80 – 90%• 7 – 35% reduction of capital costs (71 - 300 GW).• For offshore: Bottom up estimates: up to 40%
reduction in 2020.
Please note the global developments are not
included in experience curve
Sources: EWEA, 2006; Junginger, 2005, Neij et al., 2005
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Sensitivity Analysis; examples
• Rated power and load factor• Replacement rate• Power density• Specific Investment costs
• Area availability• Land use variation• Urban planning
Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions
Not Included in Technical Potential
• Land pattern change over time• Implementation in grid over time• Possibly limited approach on replacement• System cost reductions e.g. combination grid
connection offshore