technische universität münchen - internalising external costs of transportation - effective option...
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Technische Universität München
- Internalising external costs of transportation - Effective option for climate protection or
academic exercise?
Regine Gerike
Technische Universität München, mobil.TUM
Frauenchiemsee, 13 July 2009
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Structure of the Institute for Transportation at TU München
Department of urban structure and transport
planning Prof. Dr.-Ing.
Gebhard Wulfhorst
Chair of traffic engineering and
control Prof. Dr.-Ing. Fritz Busch
Chair and institue of road,
railway and airfield
constructionProf. Dr.-Ing. Stephan
Freudenstein
Institute for Transportation
Interdisciplinary Project Group “Mobility and Transport” Prof. Dr.-Ing. Regine Gerike, Dr. Sven Kesselring, Dr.-Ing. Andreas Rau
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Outline
1. Definition external costs
2. From theory to practise: How to quantify external costs?
3. Some numbers
4. Conclusions
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
• In economics, an externality or spillover of an economic transaction is • an impact • on a party that is not directly involved in the transaction.
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
Price, Cost
Transport Quantity
Demand
MPC
MSC
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
G*
F
E
A
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
F
E
A
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
F
E
A
Price, Cost
Transport Quantity
Demand
MPC
MSC
Demand
MPC
MSC
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
Welfare Loss
F
E
A
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
F
E
A
Price, Cost
Transport Quantity
Demand
MPC
MSC
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
The Problem: External Costs
Environmental pollutionAccidents, Noise, etc.
SocietyOther regionsFuture generations
The Solution: Polluter-Pays-Principle
True Costs / Level Playing Field
The Problem: External Costs
Environmental pollutionAccidents, Noise, etc.
SocietyOther regionsFuture generations
SocietyOther regionsFuture generations
The Solution: Polluter-Pays-Principle
True Costs / Level Playing Field
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs of Transportation - Overview
External Effects
Climate Change
Air Pollution Noise ExternalAccident Costs
Nature and Landscape
Additional Costs inUrban Areas
LandConsumption
Up- and DownstreamProcesses
External Costs
Infrastructure
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Impact-Pathway-Approach
Source: ExternE
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Cost Factors CO2
UBA-Methodenkonvention 2007
DC, „Best-Guess-Scenario“ Recommended: 70 €/t CO2
Sensitivity: 20 €/t CO2 and 280 €/t CO2
Stern Report 2007 DC, Stabilization CO2-concentration 450-550 ppm
85 €/t CO2
WBGU 2003 AC, Stabilization CO2-concentration below 450 ppm
2030: 50 €/t CO2 2050: 100-200 €/t CO2
UNITE, Infras/IWW 2004 AC, Kyoto (for Germany: Reduction of GHG-Emissions by 21% in 2008-2012 compared to 1990)
20 €/t CO2
Maibach 2007, Handbook AC/DC, Kyoto 7-180 €/t CO2 AC = Avoidance Costs; DC = Damage Costs
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs of Climate Change
Source: Maibach 2007
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Cost curve = Least cost mitigation technologiesRoad transport EU27 in 2020 (lifetime payback, GHG)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1040106010801100112011401160
Euro / t CO2
Mt CO2eq
-4% -8%By 2020:
• Reduction potential at negative costs: 4%
• Technical potential: 8% below 2020 baseline.
Dat
a: A
40 2
5/0
5/0
9
Source: Borken, 2009