technische universität darmstadt
TRANSCRIPT
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The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptionsand are provided for general information purposes only.
These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions.
This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.
Copyright © 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Technologies for Environmentally
Preferred Commercial Air Transport
TechnischeTechnische UniversitUniversitäätt DarmstadtDarmstadt
Michael FriendDirector of Technology
Boeing GermanyNovember 21, 2007
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Copyright © 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Market Outlook for the future
Aviation and the Environment
Global Technology development for the Environment
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1986 1996 2006 2016 2026
20-year forecast: strong long-term growth
Historical
Long-Term Growth2007 - 2026
GDP = 3.1% Passenger = 5.0%
Cargo = 6.1%
Long-Term Growth2007 - 2026
GDP = 3.1% Passenger = 5.0%
Cargo = 6.1%
RPKs (trillions)Future
Historic Growth 1986 – 2006
GDP = 2.9%
Passenger = 4.8%
Cargo = 6.3%
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10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000 Units
18,200Growth18,200
Growth
10,400Replacement
10,400Replacement
7,800Retained Fleet
7,800Retained Fleet
18,20018,200
36,400
28,600
2006 2026
Long-term demand for new airplanes remains strong
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Airlines will need over 28,600 new airplanes
62%
13%3%
22%
28,600airplanes
2.8 trilliondelivery dollars*
*In year 2006 dollars
45%42%
4%9%
747 and largerTwin-aisleSingle-aisleRegional jets
Includes CIS
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28,600 new airplanes delivered to a wide mix of regions and operating segments
Latin America
6%
Middle East4%
Africa2%C.I.S.
4%
Europe23%
Asia-Pacific
29%
North America
32%
Where they’ll go How they’ll operate
Freight3%
IT/Charter3%
Low-Cost / Short-Haul
37%Global & Broad
Network54%
Long-Haul Network
3%
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Potential Challenges to Growth
• Aviation is highly visible. It only contributes 2% of the world’s CO2 output, but because it is poised for growth it is an “easy target”.
• The introduction of new technologies today will only begin to reduce the CO2 footprint of the world fleet many years in the future, because of the fleet size.
• Those technologies that reduce CO2 emissions may increase otheremissions such as community noise.
• The European ACARE targets set for industry are difficult to achieve, but might not be enough if political pressure grows.
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The challenge
How can we most effectively minimize aviation’s impact on the environment – specifically CO2
emissions?
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Sources of human-produced CO2
Emissions from human activities are increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases that lead toclimate change.
Of the greenhouse gases, CO2has the longest-lasting, global effects.
Global man-made CO2
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Aviation has made steady, significant progress
Relat
ive fu
el us
e per
seat–
km
Early Jet Airplanes
New Generation Jet Airplanes
Second Generation Jet Airplanes Noise dB
MORE FUEL
LESS FUEL
HIGHERDECIBELS
LOWERDECIBELS
70% Fuel Improvement and Reduced CO2
90% Reduction in Noise Footprint
EVENLOWEREVEN LESS
Nose footprint based on 85 dBa.
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How can we most effectively minimize aviation’s impact on the environment – specifically CO2
emissions?
Our strategy for creating a better future1 Focusing on a Clear Vision
• Technology unlocks the future• CO2 and fuel are the priority• System efficiency is essential• A global approach involves and benefits everyone
2 Achieving Specific Metrics and Milestones• Pioneer new technologies• Relentlessly pursue manufacturing and lifecycle improvements• Create progressive new products and services• Improve performance of worldwide fleet operations
3 Delivering Global Aviation Industry Leadership• Continually work together with the industry to promote effective global public
policies and best practices – for a better future
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Priority technology research for alternative fuels
Demonstrating alternative, low-carbon lifecycle fuelsConducting the first biofuel demonstration on a commercial airplane
Researching potential of future environmentally progressive fuelsPlants, including algae, could supply fuel for the world’s airplane fleet while absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere
Accelerating deployment of viable sustainable alternative low carbon lifecycle fuelsInitiated industry working group to facilitate alternative fuel research
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Priority technology research for fuel efficiency, emissions and noise
Researching next generation materialsResult: Reduces weight, which reduces fuel use and emissions
Researching airplane systems advancementsResult: Improving electrical source and efficiency, reducing fuel, NOx and noise
Advancing more efficient operations and air traffic management
Result: Reduces noise and saves up to 500 pounds of fuel on each flight
Designing aerodynamic improvementsResult: Reduces drag which reduces fuel use and emissions
Researching propulsion systems advancementsResult: Reduce fuel consumption and emissions and lowers noise
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Key frameworks that drive our manufacturing and lifecycle improvements
A set of progressive manufacturing principles and practices to reduce environmental impact
• Increases operating efficiency• Minimizes waste• Emphasis on conservation of resources
Lean
An internationally recognized ISO 14001 standard to implement or improve environmental management systems
• Promotes environmental stewardship• Continual improvement• Emphasis on prevention
A commitment to recycling during all phases of the lifecycle
• Ensures airplane materials, including metals and composites, arerecycled for high-value industrial uses
• Identifies environmentally progressive end-of-service solutions• Promotes best practices
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Waste reductions achieved through lean manufacturing at Renton site
23% Reduction in hazardous waste
24% Reduction in acreage
41% Reduction in factory size
52% Reduction in power consumption
Lean
Source: 1999 - 2005 data
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The 787 Dreamliner is cleaner, quieter and more efficient
The 787 Dreamliner delivers:20%* Reduction in fuel and CO2
28% Below 2008 industry limits for NOx60%* Smaller noise footprint
Advanced Wing Design
Enhanced Flight Deck
Composite Primary Structure
Advanced Engines and Nacelles
Innovative SystemsTechnologies
*Relative to the 767
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The 747-8 is cleaner, quieter and more efficient
The 747-8 delivers:16%* Reduction in fuel and CO2
28% Below 2008 industry limits for NOx30%* Smaller noise footprint
New Wing DesignEnhanced Flight Deck
787 Dreamliner TechnologyHigh-bypass Engines
Advanced Nacelles and Chevron Nozzles
Advanced Materials
*Relative to the 747-400
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Improving the performance of worldwide fleet operations
Opportunities to Reduce Emissions, Fuel and Noise
Airplane Improvements Airspace EfficiencyEfficient AirlineOperations
Offer airplane hardware and software modifications to improve lifecycle performance
Work with airlines to develop and implement best practices and operational procedures
Work with Air Traffic Management to optimize airspace navigation and efficiency around the world
Lowers operating costs and reduces fuel use, emissions and noise
Reduces fuel use, emissions and noise
Reduces fuel use, emissions and noise
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Airplane performance improvements are part of ongoing programs
Next-Generation 737 Improvements• Engine improvements lowering emissions• Automated throttle control reduces takeoff noise footprint• Increased precision navigation for operational efficiency• Blended winglets for 3-5% aerodynamic efficiency• Lighter weight carbon brakes• Flight deck noise reduction
777 Improvements• Wing modified to reduce drag• Wing systems revision reduces drag• New raked wingtip for improved aerodynamic
efficiency• Wing control surface tailoring reduces drag• Engine inlet treatment for noise reduction• Maneuver load alleviation for lower empty weight
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Efficient operating practices improve fuel and CO2 efficiency
14 - 21 Million lbsReserve fuelsIdle reverseEfficient routings
Fly More Efficient Flights
14 - 21 Million lbsFlight plansSpeed scheduleAircraft loading
Plan More Efficient Flights
2 – 3 Million lbsCatering weight programAircraft servicing
Reduce Aircraft Weight
CO2 Annual SavingsExamplesTarget Opportunities
Total Savings: 30 - 45 Million lbs
Source: Boeing analysis for a 115 narrowbody airplane operation (22B ASMs)
Sample Fuel Per CO2 Savings
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Air traffic modernization can provide significant near-term benefits
More efficient routing reduces time in the air
Better arrival management and speed control for sequencing, separation, and weather rerouting reduces inefficient delays
“ATM enhancements could improve fuel efficiency and CO2
emissions by up to 12%” — IATA
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Boeing is working with the industry to address important environmental issues facing aviation
Working with industry partners to research and demonstrate sustainable alternative low carbon lifecycle fuels
Initiated first comprehensive airplane recycling program — Aircraft Fleet Recycling Association
Promoting air traffic management development and demonstrations
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CO2: A global challenge needs a global solution
Wherever it is emitted, CO2 mixes throughout the atmosphere, where it remains for approximately 100 years. And, regardless of where it is absorbed from the atmosphere, the entire world benefits from the reduction.
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Plant-based feedstocks naturally remove CO2 from the atmosphere
Plant-based fuel
Plant-based feedstocks absorb CO2emissions as the feedstocks grow.
Petroleum-based fuel
CO2 emissions from petroleum-based fuel are NOT absorbed because the source of the fuel is not plant-based.
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Sustainable biojet fuel development timeline
Establish Feasibility
Research and Development
Commercial Viability
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
• Biojet fuel technical performance demonstrated
• Second-generation biojet fuel research & development• Infrastructure integration challenges identified & worked
• Cost-effective, environmentally progressive options move forward
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Alternate fuel drivers
Airlines are seeking to:Reduce exposure to fuel price volatilityPosition for future fuel policiesReduce aviation’s impact on global warming
Future oil availability
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Types of alternative fuels
1. Synthetic (from gas, coal or bio)
2. Biofuels (from oil-based feedstock such as soy beans and algae)
3. Other (ethanol, methane, liquid hydrogen)
Space shuttle’s LH2 tank
Soybeans
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Fuel should perform similarly to Jet-A
Fuel performance challenges:Freezing pointHigh temperature thermal stabilityEnergy densityStorage stabilityElastomeric compatibilityMust be a “drop-in” solution
21C -30C
Biodiesel
Room Temperature Cruise Flight Temperature
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Boeing has studied alternate fuels that have low life-cycle CO2 emissions
Rel
ativ
e C
O2
emis
sion
s as
com
pare
d to
jet f
uel
Jet fuel from
crude oil
Liquid hydrogen
from water and nuclear
power
Biojet fuel Liquid methane
from natural
gas
Methanol from
natural gas
Jet fuel from coal with CO2sequestration
Jet fuel from coal
Liquid methane from coal
Liquid hydrogen from coal
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1
2
3
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Biofuel feedstocks must come from sustainable practices
Slash and burn deforestation
Global CO2 emissions that cause global warming
Source: www.Nature.org, 2007
Petroleum31%
Natural Gas15%
Coal26%
Deforestation25%
Other3%
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Sustainability: Researching feedstock capability for biojet fuels
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20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Soybean (US)
Rapeseed(Europe)
Babassu(Brazil)
Palm oil(Malaysia)
Algae (world?)
Oil
yiel
d (k
g/he
ctre
)
+150 times more fuel from
future algae process than
soybeans
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Sustainability: Soybean feedstock would be unable to meet aviation fuel demand
Soybeans(560 ltr oil/hectare)
575 million hectares (5.75 million sq km) soybeans
World fleet in 2004
If the world airline fleet used 100% biojet fuel from soybeans, it would require 322 billion litres.
This would require 5,750 sq km of land (about the size of Europe)
=322 billion litres of biojet fuel
(85 billion gallons)
Planted with soybeans
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Sustainability: Evaluating the potential of other future feedstocks, such as algae, to meet aviation’s fuel demand
34,250 sq km (3.4 million hectares) algae ponds
World fleet in 2004
If the world airline fleet used 100% biojet fuel from soybeans, it would require 322 billion litres.
This would require 35k sq km land (about the size of Belgium)
=322 billion litres of biojet fuel
(85 billion gallons)
94K ltr/hectareyield?
Algae Pond
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Waste Water Pond
Discharge to river/ocean
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Natural Algae Growth
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Growing Algae
Use sewage water output
Encourage further algae growth in racetrack ponds
Harvest algae
(scaled version)
Discharge clean water
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Algae Oil Extraction Process
Harvested Algae
Oil Extraction Process
Biocrude Oil
Examples are:•Expeller/Press•Hexane Extraction•Supercritical Fluid•Enzymatic•Ultrasonic•Etc.
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Biojet fuel production process
Biocrude Oil
Refining Process
Biojet Fuel
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Several marine operators have been running biodiesel in their aero-derivative engines for about 2 years
Aero-derivative LM2500 Cruise Ship EngineCF6 Aero Engine (core of LM2500 engine)
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Boeing and partners to use biojet fuel in flight demonstrations to propel biofuel industry
GatherBiojet samples
Boeing screening tests
GE & RR engine company tests
NASA lab tests
Biojet fuel flight demonstrations
NASA flame tube tests
2007 2008
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Conclusions – alternate fuels
“Drop-in” alternate fuels presently work best for commercial aviation
Alternatives need to be environmentally attractive and sustainable
Algae feedstock looks very promising
Governments and industry need to work together
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A few comparisons
Commercial airplanes can be shown to exceed proposed future EU automotive regulations for CO2 produced per 100 km.
Using typical load factors, commercial airplanes produce less CO2 per 100 km traveled than trains.
Future aircraft now on the drawing boards will be even better!
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Aviation is one of the most efficient modes of transportation
2.3 – 3.6Liters
787
3-class, high density
3-class, low density
• Computed per 100 passenger kilometers, assuming average modal load factors (1.6 passengers for SUV and cars), aggregate average for rail• CO2 generated by each transportation mode converted to equivalent liters of diesel for comparative purposes.
7.0Liters
SUV
3.1 – 4.3Liters
Car
Petrol Sedan
Small diesel car 2.3Liters
Train
Fuel Consumption
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Aviation is one of the most efficient modes of transportation
61 – 95g CO2/pkm
787
3-class, high density
3-class, low density
• Equivalent grams CO2 / passenger kilometers, assuming average modal load factors (1.6 passengers for SUV and cars, 70% for low density 787 and 90% for high density 787, aggregate rail average).
• UK National rail: DfT Network Modelling Framework (NMF) Environmental ModelCO2/fuel consumption and DfT rail statistics for 05/06
184g CO2/pkm
SUV
81 – 113g CO2/pkm
Car
Petrol Sedan
Small diesel car 60g CO2/pkm
Train
CO2 generated per 100 km traveled
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Using typical load factors, aviation is even more efficient
2.3 – 3.6Liters
787
3-class, high density
3-class, low density
7.0Liters
SUV
3.1 – 4.3Liters
Car
Petrol Sedan
Small diesel car
Train
1.5 – 4.3Liters
• Computed per 100 passenger kilometers, assuming average modal load factors (1.6 passengers for SUV and cars, 38.7% for German diesel train, 70% for low density 787, 90% for high density 787 and 47.6% for electric trains). Load factor not available for U.S. train and based on total system wide energy consumption and passengers carried in 2000.
• CO2 generated by each transportation mode converted to equivalent liters of diesel for comparative purposes.• Electric trains are assumed to have typical electricity generation factors, reflecting a mix of fossil fuels, nuclear and hydroelectric sources.
Predominantly electric-powered
Predominantly diesel-powered
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Current production airliners surpass future EU automotive emission objective
87 – 100g CO2/pkm
747-400ER
130 g CO2/km
EU Objective
100% load factor(4 occupants)
equiv. to 33 g/km
69 – 80g CO2/pkm
777-300ER
85% load factor
100% load factor
81 – 94g CO2/pkm
737-700
100% load factor100% load factor
85% load factor85% load factor
25% load factor(driver)
40% load factor (1.6 occupant avg.)**
EU future new car fleet avg.*
As specified, the future EU automotive standard is not defined on a per-occupant basis, so interpret 130 g / km applied to a four-passenger vehicle, having a load factor of 25% - the driver.*130 g CO2/km for the average new car fleet by means of improvements in vehicle motor technology (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/com/2007/com2007_0019en01.pdf)**Ref. European Environmental Agency (http://reports.eea.europa.eu/eea_report_2006_3/en/term_2005.pdf)
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Current production airliners surpass future EU automotive emission objective
• Mission lengths: 747-400ER (6000 nm), 737-800 (500 nm), 777-300ER (3000 nm).• As specified, the future EU automotive standard is not defined on a per-occupant basis, so interpret 120 g / km applied to a four-passenger vehicle, having a load factor of 25% - the driver.* 120 g CO2/km for the average new car fleet by means of improvements in vehicle systems and biofuel (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/com/2007/com2007_0019en01.pdf)
87 – 100g CO2/pkm
747-400ER
120g CO2/km
EU Objective
100% load factor(4 occupants)
equiv. to 30 g/km
69 – 80g CO2/pkm
777-300ER
85% load factor
100% load factor
81 – 94g CO2/pkm
737-700
100% load factor100% load factor
85% load factor85% load factor
25% load factor(driver)
EU future new car fleet avg.*
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Boeing technology strategy
747-400ER EU Objective
100% load factor(4 occupants)
equiv. to 30 g/km
777-300ER
100% load factor
737-700
100% load factor100% load factor
• Boeing is investing its own money to develop technologies for more efficient commercial airplanes.
• Boeing is partnering to help focus the one trillion dollars in technology spending around the world towards technologies for the environment.
• Boeing has positioned a technology director in Berlin to develop plans for partnering with German industry on technology develop, with an emphasis on environmental topics.
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Copyright © 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.
$1 Trillion in Technology Is Being Developed Throughout the World
Asia$300B
Australia$13B
Africa<$1B
SouthAmerica
$21B
Middle East$6B
Europe$280BNorth
America $380B
0 .0
1 0 .0
2 0 .0
3 0 .0
4 0 .0
5 0 .0
6 0 .0
7 0 .0
8 0 .0
A&DAuto
Computer
Software
Electronics
B o e in g O th e rs
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Copyright © 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Boeing Enterprise Global Spend outside of US for 2007
N. America(excl. U.S.A.)
700-750 Suppliers$640-660m
N. America(excl. U.S.A.)
700-750 Suppliers$640-660m
S. America25-35 Suppliers
$700-900K
S. America25-35 Suppliers
$700-900K
Australia1750-1850 Suppliers
$130-150m
Australia1750-1850 Suppliers
$130-150m
Asia210-230 Suppliers$1,690-1,710m
Asia210-230 Suppliers$1,690-1,710m
Europe550-600 Suppliers$1,590-1,610m
Europe550-600 Suppliers$1,590-1,610m
Africa25-35 Suppliers
$25-27m
Africa25-35 Suppliers
$25-27m
MiddleEast
45-55 Suppliers$110-130m
MiddleEast
45-55 Suppliers$110-130m
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Boeing’s External Technology Objectives
Find world class technologies
Align technology requirements
Enable dual / multiple use technologies
Incorporate exportable technology
Ensure technology ready for new programs
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Copyright © 2007 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Technology and innovation play a key role in developing environmentally preferred commercial air transports for the future.
Boeing is looking for suppliers and partners to be actively engaged in developing value-added technologies for the future
Working together, we can ensure successful technology development and insertion
Collaborative joint concept and architecture development is a keystone
Summary
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