Technological Evolution

Reverse Engineering the Human Brain

Pete, Steve, Malaya, Craig, Binu

Six Epochs of Evolution

• Epoch-1 Physics and Chemistry – Atomic molecules• Epoch-2 Biology/Information in DNA• Epoch-3 Brains/Information in neural patterns• Epoch-4 Technology/Information in hardware and

software• Epoch-5 Merger of Technology and Human Intelligence• Epoch-6 The Universe Awakens

– mater and energy in the universe become saturated with intelligent process and knowledge

The Singularity is Near

• “I set the date for the singularity repressing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability – as 2045. The non biological intelligence created in that year will be one billion more powerful than all human intelligence today” Kurzweil

• What is the Singularity?

Law of Accelerating Returns

Law of Accelerating Returns

Historical Context

• 20th century progress is equivalent to last 20 years of 2000, the next 20 in 14years, and the next in 7years– Stone tools, fire, wheel took 10,000 years– Printing press took a 100 years to be adopted– First computer designed with pencil on paper ~50– Human genome took 13 yrs vast % towards the

latter years

Evolution• Advanced mammals add 1cubic inch of brain matter every

100K years• Doubling computational capacity every year

Doubling/Halving Times

Dynamic RAM Feature size 5.4 years

Dynamic RAM (bits per dollar) 1.5

Average Transistor Price 1.6

Microprocessor Costs per Transistor Cycle 1.1

Total Bits Shipped 1.1

Processor performance in MIPS 1.8

Transistors in Intel Microprocessor 2.0

Microprocessor Clock Speed 3.0

Software efficiency 6.0

Kurzweils TimelineTimeline: The Future According to Ray Kurzweil (JANUARY 09, 2006 Computer World article)

• 2010: Computers become invisible• 2013: Human brain functional simulation• 2020: $1k buys a computer working at 10 quadrillion, or 1016, calculations per

second. (Human brain functional simulation)• 2025: Computer are able to simulate the entire human brain. (Neural Upload) • 2030: Non-biological intelligence matches human intelligence in range and

subtlety; $1k buys a computer 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain. • 2045: The point of "singularity" is reached, when technical progress is so fast that

unenhanced human intelligence can't follow it. One can no longer distinguish between our biology and our technology.

• 2050: Computing will exceed the processing power of all humans on Earth for $1k• 22nd century: Our intelligence, biological and non-biological combined, saturates

the matter and energy around us and begins to spread throughout the universe.

The Human Brain

• Hardware– 1014 - 1016cps – 1013 – 1018 bits of

memory

• Software– Human Genome

consists of 800 million bytes : remove the redundancy 109

• Hardware Advancement– 3 x 1015cps (Blue Gene/p)– 1012( accessible in 14 nano-

seconds) Quantum dots 1 sq inch.

• Software– MS Word >109

• Human Brain achieves 3 dimensional processing via folding

Software Developments

• Audio sensory software • Neural networks, Genetic algorithms• Retina Implant software• Mouse brain mapped

– Identified brain cancer (giloma) gene

Computational Developments

• IBM Blue Gene /P 3 petaflops (3 x 1015cps)– Original design and estimate for 1 petaflop

• Speed of light may not be a constant• Quantum Computing – Dr. Frank

Innovations

• Nanotechnology– “We are helping the military shorten its supply lines by increasing the

thermal performance of its tents by reducing diesel needs by 30%”

• DNA Computing 6.6 x 1014cps• Self Assembly• Computing with Spin

Technical Barriers to Breach

• Deep brain Scanning - Mapping neural activity– 4 yr $55 million effort to build 3 dimensional

• Mapping the Visual cortex functional• 3 Dimensional processing • AI Turing test

– “Turing test will be limited to controlling avatars in a virtual world--probably Second Life” Fall 2008 IBM Blue Gene

Bibliography/Reading List

• http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0534.html

• http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0465.html?printable=1

• http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=printArticleBasic&articleId=107494

• http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/21791.wss

Further Research

• Network traffic efficiency maximized by emulating the neural networks

• Shrinking Technology lifecycle • Intelligence awakening of the universe and

historical research vs. ancient Hindu texts on Nirvana ‘Universe Intelligent’

Companies

• http://www.apinanotronics.com/

• IBM [IBM], Hewlett-Packard [HPQ], ChevronTexaco, [CVX] and DuPont [DD]

• http://www.aerogel.com/• http://www.nanoterra.com• http://www.nanosolar.com