technologies and policies to decarbonize global industry

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Applied Energy

journal homepage wwwelseviercomlocateapenergy

Technologies and policies to decarbonize global industry Review andassessment of mitigation drivers through 2070Jeffrey Rissmana Chris Bataillebc Eric Masanetd Nate Adene William R Morrow IIIfNan Zhouf Neal Elliottg Rebecca Dellh Niko Heereni Brigitta Huckesteinj Joe CreskokSabbie A Millerl Joyashree Roym Paul Fennelln Betty Cremminso Thomas Koch BlankpDavid Honeq Ellen D Williamsr Stephane de la Rue du Canf Bill Sissons Mike WilliamstJohn Katzenbergeru Dallas Burtrawv Girish Sethiw He Pingx David Danielsony Hongyou LufTom Lorberz Jens Dinkelaa Jonas Helsethbba Energy Innovation LLC 98 Battery St Ste 202 San Francisco CA 94111 USAb Institut du Deacuteveloppement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI) 27 rue Saint-Guillaume 75337 Paris Cedex 07 Francec Simon Fraser University 8888 University Dr Burnaby BC V5A 1S6 CanadadNorthwestern University 2145 Sheridan Rd Evanston IL 60208 USAeWorld Resources Institute 10 G St NE Ste 800 Washington DC 20002 USAf Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Rd Berkeley CA 94720 USAg American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 529 14th St NW Suite 600 Washington DC 20045 USAh ClimateWorks Foundation 235 Montgomery St Ste 1300 San Francisco CA 94104 USAi Center for Industrial Ecology School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven CT 06511 USAj BASF Carl-Bosch-Straszlige 38 67063 Ludwigshafen am Rhein GermanykUS DOE Advanced Manufacturing Office 1000 Independence Ave SW Washington DC 20585 USAlUniversity of California Davis One Shields Avenue Davis CA 95616 USAmAsian Institute of Technology 58 Moo 9 Km 42 Paholyothin Highway Khlong Luang Pathum Thani 12120 Thailandn Imperial College London South Kensington Campus London SW7 2AZ United Kingdomo CDP North America Inc 127 West 26th Street Suite 300 New York NY 10001 USAp Rocky Mountain Institute 22830 Two Rivers Road Basalt CO 81621 USAq Shell International Ltd Shell Centre York Road London SE1 2NB United KingdomrUniversity of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USAsWBCSD North America 300 Park Ave 12th Floor New York NY 10022 USAt BlueGreen Alliance 2701 University Ave SE 209 Minneapolis MN 55414 USAu Aspen Global Change Institute 104 Midland Ave 205 Basalt CO 81621 USAv Resources for the Future 1616 P St NW Washington DC 20036 USAw The Energy and Resources Institute Darbari Seth Block IHC Complex Lodhi Road New Delhi 110 003 Indiax Energy Foundation China CITIC Building Room 2403 No 19 Jianguomenwai Dajie Beijing 100004 Chinay Breakthrough Energy Ventures 2730 Sand Hill Rd Suite 220 Menlo Park CA 94025 USAz Childrenrsquos Investment Fund Foundation 7 Clifford Street London W1S 2FT United Kingdomaa PricewaterhouseCoopers Bernhard-Wicki-Straszlige 8 80636 Muumlnchen Germanybb Bellona Foundation Vulkan 11 0178 Oslo Norway

H I G H L I G H T S

bull Technology and policies enable net zero industrial greenhouse gas emissions by 2070

bull Electrification use of hydrogen energy efficiency and carbon capture

bull Material efficiency longevity re-use material substitution and recycling

httpsdoiorg101016japenergy2020114848Received 19 November 2019 Received in revised form 6 March 2020 Accepted 12 March 2020

Corresponding authorE-mail addresses jeffenergyinnovationorg (J Rissman) chrisbatailleiddriorg (C Bataille) ericmasanetnorthwesternedu (E Masanet)

nadenwriorg (N Aden) wrmorrowlblgov (WR Morrow) NZhoulblgov (N Zhou) rnelliottaceeeorg (N Elliott) dellrebeccadellnet (R Dell)nheerenbuildenvironmentcom (N Heeren) brigittahuckesteinbasfcom (B Huckestein) JoeCreskoeedoegov (J Cresko) sabmilucdavisedu (SA Miller)joyashreeaitacth (J Roy) pfennellimperialacuk (P Fennell) BettyCremminscdpnet (B Cremmins) tkochblankrmiorg (T Koch Blank)davidhoneshellcom (D Hone) edwumdedu (ED Williams) sadelarueducanlblgov (S de la Rue du Can) mwilliamsbluegreenallianceorg (M Williams)johnkagciorg (J Katzenberger) burtrawrfforg (D Burtraw) girishsteriresin (G Sethi) hepingefchinaorg (H Ping) davidb-tenergy (D Danielson)hylulblgov (H Lu) TLorbercifforg (T Lorber) jensdinkelpwccom (J Dinkel) jonasbellonaorg (J Helseth)

Applied Energy 266 (2020) 114848

0306-2619 copy 2020 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY license (httpcreativecommonsorglicensesBY40)

T

bull Specific technologies for iron amp steel cement and chemicals amp plastics

bull Carbon pricing research support standards government purchases data disclosure

A R T I C L E I N F O

KeywordsIndustryEmissionsTechnologyPolicyEnergyMaterials

A B S T R A C T

Fully decarbonizing global industry is essential to achieving climate stabilization and reaching net zerogreenhouse gas emissions by 2050ndash2070 is necessary to limit global warming to 2 degC This paper assembles andevaluates technical and policy interventions both on the supply side and on the demand side It identifiesmeasures that employed together can achieve net zero industrial emissions in the required timeframe Keysupply-side technologies include energy efficiency (especially at the system level) carbon capture electrifica-tion and zero-carbon hydrogen as a heat source and chemical feedstock There are also promising technologiesspecific to each of the three top-emitting industries cement iron amp steel and chemicals amp plastics These includecement admixtures and alternative chemistries several technological routes for zero-carbon steelmaking andnovel chemical catalysts and separation technologies Crucial demand-side approaches include material-efficientdesign reductions in material waste substituting low-carbon for high-carbon materials and circular economyinterventions (such as improving product longevity reusability ease of refurbishment and recyclability)Strategic well-designed policy can accelerate innovation and provide incentives for technology deploymentHigh-value policies include carbon pricing with border adjustments or other price signals robust governmentsupport for research development and deployment and energy efficiency or emissions standards These corepolicies should be supported by labeling and government procurement of low-carbon products data collectionand disclosure requirements and recycling incentives In implementing these policies care must be taken toensure a just transition for displaced workers and affected communities Similarly decarbonization must com-plement the human and economic development of low- and middle-income countries

1 Introduction

To avert dangerous climate change it is necessary to reducegreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from every sector of the globaleconomy Modeled emissions trajectories that limit likely warming to2 degC generally require reaching net zero emissions in the latter half ofthe 21st century and net negative emissions thereafter [1] To limitwarming to 15 degC emissions must reach net zero around 2050 [2]

The industry sector was responsible for 33 of global anthro-pogenic GHG emissions in 2014 This figure includes emissions from on-site fuel combustion emissions from manufacturing processes and in-direct emissions associated with purchased electricity and heat withoutindirect emissions the industry sector was still responsible for 19 of

global anthropogenic GHG emissions (Fig 1)Industry is at the core of developing low-carbon solutions it is re-

sponsible for producing technologies such as renewable electricitygeneration facilities clean vehicles and energy-efficient buildingsTherefore it is imperative to reduce emissions from industrial opera-tions while industry continues to supply transformational technologiesand infrastructure These approaches should be compatible with apathway to zero industrial emissions

A variety of technologies product design choices and operationalapproaches can rapidly and cost-effectively reduce energy consumptionand GHG emissions across a broad range of industries Breakthroughs inareas such as 3D printing improved chemical catalysts and facilityautomation are transforming how we make everything from

Fig 1 Emissions by sector in 2014 displayed withindirect emissions (from the generation of purchasedelectricity and heat) assigned to the sectors thatpurchased that energy or grouped into a singleldquopowerrdquo sector For more detail on which industriesare included in the ldquoindustryrdquo sector see Fig 2Emissions from agriculture from waste (eg landfillswastewater treatment) and fugitive emissions (egmethane leakage from coal mines and natural gassystems) are not considered part of the industrysector in this paper [34]

J Rissman et al Applied Energy 266 (2020) 114848

2

smartphones to aircraft Meanwhile techniques such as lightweightingand design for longevityreuse offer ways to reduce material con-sumption while providing equivalent or better services All of thesetechnologies and practices can be enhanced by integrated systems de-sign Over 90 of GHG emissions are from about a dozen industries(Fig 2) so very large reductions in industrial GHG emissions are pos-sible by focusing on a limited set of product and process improvements

Technologies are only part of the picture Enacting the right policiescan make investment in cleaner industrial processes more profitableand dramatically accelerate emissions reductions The right policies caneven spread innovations through international supply chains im-proving companies in countries that lack strong policies of their ownCompanies that invest in improved technology will be positioned to beleaders throughout this century when concern over climate change islikely to make inefficiency and high emissions increasingly seriousbusiness liabilities

To help guide policymakers and businesses this work develops ablueprint for action that addresses the inter-connected concerns of in-novation technical feasibility cost-effectiveness an enabling policyenvironment and the need for social equity in delivering humanwellbeing globally

2 Two-degree-compatible industrial decarbonization pathways

Holding global average temperature increase to well below 2 degC (thegoal of the 2015 Paris Agreement) requires decarbonizing global in-dustry in tandem with all other sectors Direct industrial emissionsincluding energy and non-energy process emissions rose 65 from1990 to 2014 [21] This was driven in part by industrialization in thedeveloping world and further industrialization is expected to raise thestandards of living in developing countries [22]

Industrial decarbonization will be motivated by the declining costsof cleaner technologies environmental regulation and voluntary cli-mate action Numerical assessments of decarbonization potential canhighlight critical knowledge gaps and research and development (RampD)opportunities

The Shell Sky Scenario [23] the 2-Degree Scenario (2DS) and Be-yond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS) from the International Energy Agencyrsquos

(IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives [7] and the pathway describedin the ldquoMission Possiblerdquo report by the Energy Transitions Commission(ETC) [24] are four scenarios that limit warming to below 2 degC Thesescenarios present break-outs for global industry sector CO2 emissionshydrogen use and CCS use The Sky Scenario shows projections to theyear 2100 from a World Energy Model (WEM) framework The IEAshows projections to the year 2060 from a technology-rich bottom-upanalytical ldquobackcastingrdquo framework The ETC projections are based onmodeling by the firm SYSTEMIQ which ETC indicates will be describedin forthcoming technical appendices Though complete time-series dataare not yet available from ETC data are reported for the net-zeroemissions system which is achieved in 2050 by developed countriesand in 2060 by developing countries [24] The graphs below show ETCresults in 2060 as the results are global (and most of the worldrsquos in-dustrial activity occurs in developing countries) All four scenariosconsider only combustion and process CO2 not other GHGs

21 Modeled global industry emissions

The Sky Scenario projects a continued rise in heavy industry CO2

emissions through the early 2030s followed by a decline as CO2 cap-ture and hydrogen technologies are deployed Emissions in light in-dustry begin falling from the late 2030s driven primarily by elec-trification The IEA 2DS shows modestly rising industrial CO2 emissionsthrough 2025 followed by a linear decline driven by efficiency andCCS technologies The IEA B2DS includes steep cuts to Industry emis-sions beginning in 2014 ETC finds that global industry emissions canbe reduced to net zero except for ldquoresidualrdquo emissions of 2 Gt CO2yrconsisting of ldquoend-of-life emissions from chemicals (plastics and ferti-lizers) and the last 10ndash20 of industrial emissionsrdquo [24] (Fig 3)

22 Modeled global hydrogen adoption

As the cost of renewable electricity continues to decline [2526]there is growing interest in the role of renewable electricity-sourcedhydrogen (ie via electrolysis) as a contributor to industrial dec-arbonization both as a direct fuel and as a chemical feedstock [27]

Global industrial decarbonization scenarios that have explicitly

Fig 2 Industry sector GHG emissions disaggregatedby industry and by emissions type Energy-relatedemissions are from fuel combustion while processemissions are from other industrial activities Directemissions are from industrial facilities while indirectemissions are associated with the production ofelectricity or district heat purchased by industry (notgenerated on-site) Emissions associated with trans-porting input materials and output products areconsidered part of the transportation sector and arenot included in this figure ldquoChemicals and plasticsrdquoincludes all fluorinated gas emissions even thoughmost of those gases (eg refrigerants propellantselectrical insulators) are emitted due to the use orscrappage of products Chemicals production by re-fineries is included in the ldquorefiningrdquo category not theldquochemicals and plasticsrdquo category ldquoCeramicsrdquo in-cludes brick tile stoneware and porcelain ldquoFoodand tobaccordquo includes the processing cooking andpackaging of food beverage and tobacco productsnot agricultural operations ldquoOther metalsrdquo includescopper chromium manganese nickel zinc tin leadand silver ldquoLimerdquo only includes lime production notaccounted for in another listed industry (eg ce-ment) Total industry sector emissions do not matchthose in Fig 1 due to differences in data sources[4ndash20]


3

considered zero-carbon hydrogenmdasheg [7232428ndash30]mdashwhile dif-fering in their technological and subsector scopes have generally si-milar conclusions Namely renewable hydrogen can play a significantrole in industrial CO2 mitigation in both light and heavy industries butthe high current costs of electrolyzers and hydrogen transport com-petition with cheap natural gas need for new process heating equip-ment (eg avoidance of hydrogen embrittlement of metals) and

moderate technology readiness levels of some emerging solutions (eghydrogen-reduced steel) pose challenges for large-scale market pene-tration in the absence of good policy Smart policy can accelerate theuptake of renewable hydrogen in industry by making the required RampDand infrastructure investments more cost-effective andor by requiringemissions reductions from industries whose best emissions abatementoption is hydrogen (For more details see Sections 41 and 62 below)

Fig 3 CO2 Emissions from Industry in the Shell Sky IEA 2DS IEA B2DS and ETC scenarios These scenarios include only direct emissions not emissions from theproduction of purchased electricity or heat This graph includes only CO2 that reaches the atmosphere not CO2 that is captured and stored The Sky scenario excludesfuels used as raw materials (such as petrochemical feedstocks) from the Industry sector while IEA considers these fuel uses to be part of Industry This might help toexplain IEArsquos higher 2014 Industry sector emissions

Fig 4 Global hydrogen consumption in the Shell Sky Scenario the ETC scenario (both disaggregated by end user) and in the IEA 2DS and B2DS (total) The IEA 2DSand B2DS are not identical but their values are so close (059 vs 085 EJyr in 2060) that their lines cannot be separately distinguished on this graph


4

The IEA Shell and ETC scenarios have different predictions re-garding hydrogen usage The IEA scenarios do not show any hydrogenuse by industry and very little by the transportation sector reachingjust 059 EJyr (2DS) or 085 EJyr (B2DS) in 2060 (Note these IEAhydrogen projections are out-of-line with IEArsquos more recent work in TheFuture of Hydrogen [30] and may no longer reflect the IEArsquos expectationsregarding the importance of hydrogen in a decarbonized economy) TheShell Sky Scenario includes steady growth of hydrogen use from zero in2020 to 69 EJyr in 2100 Hydrogen use by industry peaks in the early2080s as efficiency technologies reduce industrial energy consumptionThe ETC scenario has the most aggressive numbers 40 EJyr of hy-drogen consumption by Industry and 38 EJyr by the rest of theeconomy (converted from mass of H2 using hydrogenrsquos lower heatingvalue as recovery of the latent heat of vaporization of water vapor inthe exhaust stream is unlikely in most high-temperature industrialcontexts) (Fig 4)

Rapid adoption of hydrogen by industry implies similarly rapidscaling of hydrogen production distribution and storage infra-structure Large industrial facilities with access to cheap electricity mayproduce their own hydrogen on-site while other industrial facilitiesmay buy hydrogen particularly if a robust hydrogen distributionsystem develops to accommodate transportation sector demand Theinfrastructure required to produce and deliver 15 EJ of hydrogen (theSky scenariorsquos projected 2060 hydrogen use by industry) could becompared with the historical development of the liquid natural gas(LNG) industry The first large-scale LNG facilities were built in the1960s and by 1990 the LNG industry had scaled to 25 EJ or 1 ofglobal energy supply Today global trade in LNG is some 155 EJ offinal energy accounting for roughly 25 of global energy supply [31]This ldquorapidrdquo scale-up of the LNG industry nonetheless took 50 years Forglobal industry to decarbonize in line with these Paris-compliant sce-narios even faster hydrogen scale-up will be needed illustrating theneed for robust investments in hydrogen RampD and infrastructure toaccelerate adoption

23 Modeled global carbon capture and storage

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is also expected to play an im-portant role in helping to decarbonize industry [3233] The Shell SkyScenario and IEA 2DS are largely in agreement about the magnitude ofindustry sector CCS though the IEA projects scaling-up to beginroughly 5ndash10 years earlier The ETC scenario closely agrees with theSky scenario in total magnitude of CO2 captured annually but ETCprojects most carbon capture to occur in industry rather than in non-industry sectors The IEA B2DS projects an industry CO2 capture ratefalling between the Sky and ETC scenarios (Fig 5)

24 Three phases of technology deployment

Independent of the Paris Agreement national and sub-national po-licies economic forces technology development and voluntary cor-porate action will cause the industrial sector to substantially reduce itsemissions over the coming century But an outcome consistent withParis requires net zero emissions within 30ndash50 years

The European Commission has modeled a number of ambitiousemission reduction scenarios for the EU that are compatible with 2-degree and 15-degree global trajectories Projected energy intensity ofEU industry (Fig 6) may reflect technology and policy pathways alsoavailable to other developed economies and with sufficient financialsupport and technical assistance to developing economies These in-tensity trajectories require a broad range of supply-side measures(electrification energy efficiency circular economy hydrogen etc)and should be accompanied by demand-side measures (material effi-ciency longevity re-use etc)

In considering a rapid transition for industrial facilities worldwidethe following framework for change is proposed (Table 1) Note thetiming of proposed phases refers to a global average In reality devel-oped countries likely would need to decarbonize more rapidly tocompensate for any developing countries that deploy technology moreslowly Also note that the ldquotimeframerdquo specifies when each measurebecomes widely used and begins delivering significant emissions re-ductions RampD to improve technologies used in later phases must begin

Fig 5 CO2 emissions from industry and non-industry sources captured in the Shell Sky IEA 2DS IEA B2DS and ETC scenarios


5

now and measures started in earlier phases must persist in later phasesThis framework is informed by the phases of technology develop-

ment and deployment commonly seen in large-scale energy systems[35] New technologies go through a few decades of high-percentagegrowth but from a very small base Once the technology becomeslsquomaterialrsquomdashtypically just a few percent of the systemmdashgrowth becomeslinear then tapers off as the technology approaches its final marketshare These deployment curves are remarkably similar across differenttechnologies As a result there is often a lag of up to 30 years betweeninitial testing of a technology and large-scale deployment Two notes

bull Demand-side interventions such as material efficiency longevityand re-use (discussed in Section 51) may have less need for newphysical technologies However they may involve more changes tosocial practices business models production location etc Like newenergy technologies demand-side interventions may need policysupport and a multi-decade timeframe to achieve materialitybull If political pressure to rapidly reduce emissions becomes acute(perhaps in response to accelerating climate damages) the invest-ment cycle can be sped up through mandatory early retirement ofthe highest-GHG-intensity industrial facilities This practice is al-ready being used to phase out coal electricity generation in certainregions For instance Ontario completed a coal phase-out in 2014[36] and US air quality regulations have accelerated the retire-ment of older coal units that would be too expensive to retrofit withpollution controls [37] The Chinese government has shut downhighly polluting industrial facilities for air quality reasons [38]

3 Supply-side interventions Materials and carbon capture

31 Cement production

Hydraulic cement a powder that reacts with water to act as a binderin concrete is one of the most-used materials in the world Annuallycement production exceeds 4 billion metric tons [39] Currently globaldemand is largely driven by China and other Asian countries whichwere responsible for 80 of cement production in 2014 (Fig 7) Inregions such as these recent growth in heavy industries and a relativelyhigh dependence on coal as an energy source has led to high CO2

emissions from manufacturing [40]Cement manufacturing releases CO2 through two main activities

energy use and calcination reactions Energy-related emissions(30ndash40 of direct CO2 emissions) occur when thermal fuels mostcommonly coal are used to heat a precalciner and rotary kiln Theother primary source of direct CO2 emissions (ldquoprocess emissionsrdquo)

come from a chemical reaction that takes place in the precalcinerwhere limestone (largely calcite and aragonite with chemical formulaCaCO3) is broken down into lime (CaO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) TheCO2 is released to the atmosphere while the lime is used to makeclinker one of the main components of cement [42]

Cement production has substantial environmental impactsGlobally cement and concrete are responsible for 8ndash9 of GHG emis-sions 2ndash3 of energy demand and 9 of industrial water withdrawals[43ndash45] Further the selection of fuels for cement kilns and in part thekiln materials used currently lead to notable air pollutant emissions[46] It is critical to select mitigation strategies that can contribute toreduced CO2 emissions while lowering other environmental burdensThis is especially true considering the high near-term projected futuredemand for cement [47] These factors must be taken into considera-tion when evaluating strategies to decarbonize cement production oneof the most difficult industries to decarbonize [48] due to the need forhigh temperatures the generation of CO2 process emissions and thelarge quantity of cement demanded globally However there exist anumber of approaches that show promise each with varied effects onother environmental impacts

311 Techniques that reduce process emissions from cementMineral and chemical admixtures are a critical mechanism for re-

ducing CO2 emissions [49] Mineral admixtures can range in propertiesSupplementary cementitious materials can be pozzolanic (ie a mate-rial that is not cementitious on its own but reacts with cement hy-dration products to contribute desirable properties to concrete) or ce-mentitious (ie possess cementitious properties) Supplementarycementitious materials contribute to the formation of crystallinestructures that can improve concrete properties [50] Mineral ad-mixtures also include inert fillers that can improve packing and reducedemand for cement Quantities of mineral admixtures can vary greatlybetween concrete mixtures depending on properties desired and localspecifications but common cement replacement levels range between 5and 15 for inert fillers [51] and are higher for supplementary ce-mentitious materials in some cases exceeding 50 replacement [52]

Chemical admixtures can contribute to reductions in cement de-mand Chemical admixtures are typically used in relatively low quan-tities compared to cement These admixtures allow desired settingtimes workability air entrainment and other properties to beachieved Because of the additional control that can be gained overconcrete properties through use of chemical admixtures changes thatwould have otherwise required altering water or cement content can beobtained As a result lower levels of cement use are possible The use ofchemical admixtures also facilitates greater use of mineral admixtures

Fig 6 Carbon intensity of EU industry under nine scenarios appearing in the European Commissionrsquos long-term plan [34] Image CC BY 40 (permission)


6

in concrete mixtures and in conjunction with smart concrete man-agement the effectiveness of chemical and mineral admixtures can beimproved as a CO2 mitigation tool [53] While the application of ad-mixtures has been common practice in the manufacture of concrete toachieve desired properties such as reduced heat of hydration their useto reduce GHG emissions is a focus of current research [54]

Beyond admixtures the use of alternative inorganic cements to re-place conventional Portland cements may play a critical role inachieving tailored properties from concrete with lower carbon dioxideemissions [5556] These alternative cements are typically classifiedinto two categories clinkered alternative cements which are producedusing similar technologies to conventional Portland cements and non-clinkered alternative cements which are produced without pyr-oprocessing [55] CO2 reductions from clinkered alternative cementsderive from differences in raw materials or a lower energy requirementfor kilning [57] Different clinker phases have different enthalpies offormation as such there is the potential to lower energy demand inkilns if changes are made to the cement phase composition [58] De-pending on fuel resources used there could be improvements in otherenvironmental impacts through a reduction in energy demand [58]However some of these alternative clinkered cement systems requirethe availability of raw material resources that may not be as prevalentas those used in conventional cements Considering the high globaldemand for cement resource availability or competition with othersectors for resources can be a constraining factor for some alternativesin certain regions

A range of non-clinkered alternative cements can be produced themost commonly discussed cements in this category are alkali-activatedmaterials Depending on the solid precursor selected the alkali-acti-vator selected and any energy requirements for curing alkali-activatedmaterials are expected to yield lower GHG emissions than conventionalPortland cement [56] As alternative cement systems can lead tochanges in performance such factors should be taken into considera-tion in their use

Unlike Portland cement binders which react with water to solidifythere are binders that can instead harden by reacting with CO2 [57]Among these the most frequently discussed are MgO-based binders andcarbonatable calcium silicate-based binders Often to drive the reactionwith CO2 at a reasonable rate high concentrations of CO2 are requiredCurrently MgO-based binders are predominantly explored in an aca-demic setting but carbonatable calcium silicate-based binders havestarted to be used in early-stage commercialization [57] As with otheralternative cements availability of raw materials to form these cementscould be a constraining factor in their use and some raw material re-sources for these cements could lead to a net increase in lifecycle CO2

emissions relative to Portland cement even considering the carbonuptake during curing [58] Further due to the low pH of these cementsystems they would not be suitable for applications in which the con-crete requires conventional steel reinforcement

312 Techniques that reduce thermal fuel-related emissions from cementTo reduce energy-related emissions from cement (eg from the fuel

used to heat the precalciner and kiln) the main options are improvingthe thermal efficiency of cement-making equipment fuel switchingelectrification of cement kilns and carbon capture and sequestration(CCS)

Reducing the moisture content of input materials improves energyefficiency as less energy is needed to evaporate water This can beachieved by using a dry-process kiln and ensuring the kiln has a pre-calciner and multi-stage preheater Recovered heat can be used to pre-dry input materials A grate clinker cooler is better at recovering excessheat than planetary or rotary-style coolers [47] The extent to whichthese upgrades can reduce energy use depends on the age and efficiencyof the technology already in use Most modern kilns incorporate thisprocessing stage which is reflected in the high-producing regions thatrecently expanded cement production capacity [59]Ta

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Achievableem

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Timeframe

Actions

Techno

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Achievableem

ission

sredu

ctions

2020

ndash203

5Effi

ciency

improves

continuouslyw

ithmostindu

strial

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dergoing

increm

ental

improvem

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fter20

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towards

electricity

particularly

forlight

indu

stryw

here

electricity

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from

2020

to20

40M

aterialefficiencylongevityand

re-use

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askeystrategies

and

beginto

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policy

Heavy

RampDinvestmentsaredirected

into

technologies

that

will

beim

portantinsubsequent

phasessuchas

build

ingCC

Sdemonstratio

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cing

the

costof

zero-carbonhydrogen

bullElectrification

bullMaterialefficiency

bullEnergyeffi

ciency

bullIncreasedre-use

andrecycling

(circulareconom

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bullCCS

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullNovelchem

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catalystsandseparatio

ns

bullNew

cementchem

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20

2035

ndash205

0Structural

shiftsem

erge

basedon

technologies

that

areavailableandnearingmaturity

for

commercial

deploymentin

the20

20ndash203

5tim

eframeCC

Sfalls

into

thiscategory

anddeploys

rapidlythroughthisperiodassum

ingamarketp

ullo

rpricepu

shto

incentivizeit

Alte

rnate

materials(new

cementchem

istriestallwoodbuild

ings)gain

marketacceptance

andarewidely

adopted

bullCCS

bullNew

cementchem

istries

bullAlte

rnativematerials

bullNew

chem

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productio

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bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

50

2050

ndash207

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eginsfor

processa

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technologies

thatarenascenttoday

butare

refin

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20ndash205

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stry

scales

rapidlydu

ring

thisperiodW

ithsufficientp

olicypu

shthisperiod

coulddeliv

ernet-zeroem

issionsforindu

stry

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullOngoing

refin

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existin

gprom

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technologicalp

athw

ays

80ndash100


7

Certain mineral compositions can lower the temperature at whichinput materials are chemically transformed into clinker and less fuel isneeded to reach a lower temperature [47] However some of thesealternatives can alter cement performance so testing and certificationof alternative cement chemistries will be important Another approachis to react fuel with oxygen-enriched air so less heat is lost in the ex-haust gases [60] Oxy-combustion also has the benefit of reducing theconcentration of non-CO2 gases in the exhaust stream making carboncapture easier

Today 70 of global thermal fuel demand in the cement industry ismet with coal and another 24 is met with oil and natural gasBiomass and waste fuels account for the last 6 [47] Biomass andwaste fuels typically have lower CO2-intensity than coal though theymay have other drawbacks such as a higher concentration of particu-lates in the exhaust [61]

To completely decarbonize heat production for cement electrifica-tion of cement kilns or CCS may be necessary The best route may varyby cement plant as it will be influenced by the price and availability ofzero-carbon electricity as well as the feasibility of carbon capture andstorage at the plant site [24] Due to the ability for hydrated cement to

carbonate and in doing so uptake CO2 some work has started toquantify potential carbon capture and storage through using crushedconcrete and fines at the end-of-life [6263]

313 Techniques that reduce both process and energy-related emissionsfrom cement

There are design and engineering techniques that can reduce theamount of concrete required to achieve a given strength such usingcurved fabric molds instead of standard geometries with sharp anglesand corners [64] and pre-stressing concrete using tensioned steel cables[65] The use of concrete mixture optimization [6667] improved de-sign of members or structures through use of high-performance con-crete or through better tailoring mixture selection with steel re-inforcement [6869] and increasing time to functional obsolescencehave all been proposed as means to reduce GHG emissions [7071]Most of these methods would reduce total material demand and indoing so cut production-related emissions More options to reduceconcrete demand are discussed in Section 51 Additionally there maybe human settlement patterns that require less construction materialsFor example not building in areas threatened by sea level rise may

Fig 7 Cement production by world region in 2014 CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States RoW = Rest of World [41]

Fig 8 Crude steel production by region in 2018 (Mt) [73]


8

reduce demand for concrete to construct seawalls and to repair build-ings [2]

Finally the cement industry may use carbon capture technologydiscussed in Section 34

32 Iron and steel production

Steel is an essential material for vehicles buildings and infra-structure worldwide It is a product of a large and technologicallycomplex industry characterized by high capital intensity dependenceon bulk raw materials cyclical growth and profitability trends andperiodic over-capacity These factors hinder the adoption of emissionsreduction technologies that would add costs to an industry with rela-tively low profit margins

Global steel production during 2018 was 1808 million metric tons(Mt) with more than half contributed by China (Fig 8) though Chinarsquossteel demand is projected to gradually decline by around 40 through2043 [72]

There are several pathways for primary (from iron ore) and sec-ondary (recycled) steel production [74]

Primary production using a blast furnacebasic oxygen furnace(BFBOF) is used for 71 of all steel production [73] In the BFBOFprocess iron ore and coke (purified coal) are placed in the blast fur-nace where a chemical reaction removing (reducing) oxygen from ironore occurs The reduced iron and remnant carbon are then transferredto the basic oxygen furnace where the desired carbon level is estab-lished by adding powdered carbon and the mixture is alloyed withother metals (such as manganese nickel or chromium) to create steelwith desired properties Sometimes up to 30 recycled scrap is addedto the BOF to reduce the need for raw iron and to dilute any impuritiesin the scrap Coal is combusted for process heat is used as the chemicalagent for reducing the iron ore and is a source of carbon The BFBOFprocess produces combustible byproduct gases (eg coke oven gas blastfurnace gas and converter gas) which can be used as supplementaryfuel within the steel plant or transformed into salable chemicals such asmethanol [75]

BFBOF producers typically have large integrated steel-makingfacilities with coal-coking operations BFBOFs can produce any typeand quality of steel The average emissions intensity from the BFBOFroute is 28 metric tons of CO2 per metric ton of steel but the mostefficient ones produce only 18 t CO2t steel [76]

Primary production using direct reduced iron method followedby an electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF) is used for about 6 of all steelproduction [73] In a typical DRI methane is transformed into a syngasof hydrogen (H2) and carbon monoxide (CO) with hydrogen playingthe primary role of scavenging the oxygen (reducing the iron) and COcontributing carbon to the steel The hot briquetted iron that emerges isthen melted and alloyed in an electric arc furnace DRI-EAFs wereoriginally used only for long steel products (such as wire rails rodsand bars) but the latest plants can make any type and quality of steelThe GHG intensity of DRI-EAFs can be as low at 07 t CO2t steel ifdecarbonized electricity is used

Secondary production in an electric arc furnace (EAF) accountsfor 20ndash25 of all steel production [73] In an EAF scrap metal ismelted by running an electric current through it This is the most widelyused method for recycling scrap EAFs require already-reduced inputmaterials such as scrap steel pig iron direct-reduced iron (DRI) andferro-alloys Like DRI-EAFs modern EAFs can potentially make anytype of steel depending on the scrap quality However if the scrap istoo contaminated it can only be used for some long products and re-inforcing bar The GHG intensity of the EAF route depends on theelectricity source and can be GHG-free if supplied with decarbonizedelectricity EAFs can operate cost-effectively at smaller scales than BFBOFs so EAFs are often found in mini-mills

Induction furnaces are used to melt already-processed metal insecondary manufacturing using surface contact to create electro-

magnetic eddies that provide highly controllable heat They are po-tentially highly efficient but cannot handle oxidized metals They arealso used for secondary steel productionmdashfor example induction fur-naces accounted for 30 of Indiarsquos 2018 steel production [77]mdashbut thisroute doesnrsquot allow for effective control of steel composition or quality[78] China banned induction furnace-based steel in 2017 causingmany of these furnaces to be sold to companies in Southeast Asiannations [79] As with EAFs the GHG intensity of induction furnacesdepends on the electricity source

In recent decades the steel industry has achieved significant re-ductions in energy input and CO2 emissions intensity Increasing use ofEAFs as well as utilization of waste heat recovery technologies havecontributed to a 61 reduction in energy consumption per ton of steelproduced since 1960 [80] However these intensity improvementshave not been sufficient to reduce total absolute GHG emissions fromsteel production Globally the average final energy intensity of steelproduction is approximately 21 GJt crude steel [81] and there re-mains an estimated 15ndash20 improvement potential using existing ef-ficiency and waste heat recovery technologies [80] but this varies bycountry [82]

Modern steel plants operate near the limits of practical thermo-dynamic efficiency using existing technologies Therefore in order todrastically reduce the overall CO2 emissions from the production ofsteel the development of breakthrough technologies is crucial Thereare fundamentally two pathways to reduce carbon emissions from steelproduction one is to continue to use current carbon-based methods andcapture the carbon the other is to replace carbon with another re-ductant such as hydrogen or direct electrolysis Technological optionsinclude [83ndash85]

bull EAF with decarbonized electricity When possible eg given suffi-cient supply of scrap steel powering EAF with decarbonized elec-tricity would reduce the carbon intensity of steel to just 2ndash5 kg CO2ton steel (residual emissions from the electrodes) a reduction ofover 99 relative to a traditional BFBOF process [86] Studies haveconsidered a much higher penetration rate of EAF in total steelproduction reaching 47ndash56 of the EUrsquos or 100 of Germanyrsquossteel production by 2050 [87]bull HIsarna combines the BFBOF steps to create a more efficientprocess that also produces a concentrated CO2 waste stream easingcarbon capture The process directly injects fine iron ores and cru-shed coal into the smelt reduction vessel thus eliminating sinterpelletizing or coking [88] Since 2010 HIsarna has been piloted atsmall scale supported by the EUrsquos Ultra-Low Carbon DioxideSteelmaking (ULCOS) and Horizon 2020 programs A Hlsarna pilotplant was built in Ijmuiden the Netherlands and has been testing itsprocesses since 2011 [89] Tata Steel is considering a full-scale pilotin India According to the Technology Roadmap conducted byUNIDO and IEA Hlsarna equipped with CCS could capture about80 of CO2 emissions [90]bull Hydrogen DRI-EAF also known as HYBRIT HDRI-EAFs use low-GHG hydrogen (via electrolysis or steam methane reforming withCCS) directly (instead of a methane-derived syngas) as the iron orereducing agent avoiding CO2 creation [91] This direct reduction ofiron (DRI) process produces a solid porous sponge iron After directreduction sponge iron is then fed into EAF where iron is melted byelectric current After the EAF process liquid steel is produced forfinal chemical composition adjustment before casting HYBRIT hascompleted feasibilities studies and the first demonstration plant bySSAB LKAB and Vattenfall is under construction in Sweden Thecompany plans to complete pilot plant trials in 2024 and start of-fering fossil-free steel products commercially in 2026 SSAB aims toconvert all of its plants for fossil-free steel production by 2040ndash2045[92] ArcelorMittal is planning another pilot in Germany [93]bull Prior to the HYBRIT effort the only commercial application of hy-drogen DRI was in Trinidad where DRI was produced in fluidized


9

bed reactors with hydrogen from steam reforming [94] Authorssuch as the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) and Weigel et al (2016) identified hy-drogen-DRI as the most promising zero-carbon steel productionroute through a multicriteria analysis (including economy safetyecology society and politics) comparing it with electrowinningand blast furnace steelmaking with and without CCS [6495] Voglet al estimated that hydrogen-based DRI-EAF would require 348MWh per ton of liquid steel (or 1253 GJton) to produce includingelectricity demand for hydrogen production (51 kg of hydrogen perton of steel) [96] Otto et al similarly estimated this steel produc-tion route would consume 125 GJtonne of liquid steel where 62of energy is used for producing hydrogen [97]bull Electrolysis of iron ore either through an aqueous process [98] ormolten oxide electrolysis Aqueous electrolysis (or ldquoelectrowin-ningrdquo) is being piloted by Arcelor Mittal as SIDERWIN anotherproduct of the EU ULCOS technology program [99] The moltenoxide electrolysis method involves directly reducing and meltingiron ore with electricity [100101] The technology is being pilotedby Boston Metals Similar to hydrogen DRI-EAF an electrolysis-based approach could entail significant electricity demand [86]bull BFBOFs using biocharcoal as the fuel and reducing agent There arefacilities in Brazil that utilize some biocharcoal However for everyton of steel produced about 06 tons of charcoal is needed whichrequires 01ndash03 ha of Brazilian eucalyptus plantation [48102103]This poses a land-competition challenge between growing fuels andfood This also limits the adoption of this type of steel-makingtechnology in countries with limited arable land [102]bull BFBOFs utilizing top gas recirculation and CCS Blast furnaces arethe largest source of direct CO2 emissions in the steel-making pro-cess By utilizing exhaust gas (ldquotop gas recyclingrdquo) on BFs the CO2

concentration in the exhaust could be increased up to 50 [48] Byadopting CCS on BFBOF routes it is estimated that CO2 emissionscould be reduced at about 80 [86] Retrofitting existing facilitiesto fit CCS units could increase cost and complexity Retrofits can bechallenging because steel plants may have unique designs andmultiple emission sources with different gas compositions and flowrates [104]

These technologies range from lab bench through pilot phases andwill cost more than BFBOF steel in early commercial versions Theywill need RampD support as well as dedicated starter markets to achievemarket share and scale

Additionally substantial reductions of GHG emissions are possiblethrough increased recycling and by reducing total steel demand

discussed in Section 5

33 Chemicals production

Chemicals production is a major global industry producing che-micals worth euro3475 billion in 2017 (Fig 9) In the chemicals industryconsiderable emissions intensity reduction has been achieved byswitching to lower-carbon fuels improving energy efficiency and usingcatalysts to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) an important GHGFor example the energy intensity of the European chemicals industryhas declined by 55 since 1991 [19] However these measures havebeen refinements of existing technologies To enable significant abso-lute GHG reductions required for climate stabilization new chemicalproduction technologies are needed [105106]

331 Avoiding fossil fuel emissionsFossil fuel combustion is the largest source of CO2 in the chemicals

industry so developing processes that reduce these emissions is the toppriority There exist promising approaches that may be refined forcommercial use

For example steam crackers (machines that break large hydro-carbons into smaller molecules) must reach a temperature of 850 degC tobreak down naphtha for further processing If this energy could comefrom zero-emissions electricity CO2 emissions could be reduced up to90 Six major chemical manufacturers (BASF Borealis BPLyondellBasell Sabic and Total) have established a consortium tojointly investigate the creation of the worldrsquos first electrical naphtha orsteam crackers [107]

New catalysts can reduce input energy requirements for variouschemical transformations For example recent catalyst systems allowmethane (CH4) to be dry-reformed into dimethyl ether (CH3OCH3)which can in turn be transformed into various olefins [108] such asethylene (C2H4) the most-produced organic compound in the world[109] More broadly there exist a range of energy efficiency options forchemicals production including options with negative lifetime costs[110]

Significant volumes of CO2 are released for hydrogen productionwhich is used in large quantities by the chemicals industry as a reactanteg for ammonia production Techniques to decarbonize hydrogenproduction are discussed in Section 41

332 Biomass feedstocks and recycled chemicalsToday petrochemical raw materials are important inputs to the

process of making many chemicals Biomass may be used instead offossil fuel feedstocks for specific target molecules

Fig 9 World chemicals production by region in 2017 (billion euro) Calculated from sales import and export data in [19]


10

Lignocellulosemdashessentially dried inedible plant material includingwood grasses agricultural byproducts and industrial byproducts fromsaw and paper millsmdashis the most abundant organic substance on Earth[111] and a promising option to produce chemical feedstocks Lig-nocellulose has three main components cellulose hemicellulose andlignin Biomass can be fractionated into these components which havean estimated value of $500 per metric ton of dry biomass when used asinputs to the chemicals industry [112] However it is typically lesscostly to use petroleum feedstocks in part because todayrsquos commer-cialized technology does not recover and allow for the use of all of thecellulose hemicellulose and lignin in biomass [112] Therefore properfinancial incentives (such as sellable credits under a carbon tradingscheme) will be key to the deployment of biomass-derived chemicalfeedstocks along with a methodology to allocate the greenhouse gasemission savings to final products to allow for the development of amarket [113] Additionally there are limits to the quantity of biomassthat may be sustainably produced given competition with food agri-culture and biodiversity needs [2]

Today recycling companies refuse certain plastics including mixedand polluted plastic material Mechanical separation of recycled plas-tics encounters limits due to sorting requirements and decreasing ma-terial quality with each cycle One solution is to break plastics downinto monomers which can then be used as building blocks for chemicalproduction [114] For example poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) oneof the most commonly used plastics in the packaging and textile in-dustries can be broken down using alkaline hydrolysis with a 92yield at relatively low (200 degC) temperatures with short reaction time(25 min) [115] Pyrolysis (thermal decomposition of plastics in anoxygen-free environment) can also be used to create recycled chemicalfeedstocks [116] but depending on the plastic source contaminationwith phthalates [117] or other chemicals [118] can be a concernCurrently traditional feedstocks are cheaper than recycled feedstocks

but the right policy environment (eg a cap-and-trade system reg-ulatory requirements tradeable credits etc) could make recyclingthese chemicals economically viable

333 Reuse of CO2 for chemicals productionCO2 has long been used as a feedstock to produce certain chemicals

whose molecular structure is close to that of CO2 such as urea CO(NH2)2 [119] Urea used in fertilizer soon releases that CO2 back to theatmosphere but urea is also used for the production of longer-livedgoods such as melamine resins used in flooring cabinetry and furni-ture

Researchers have investigated the capture and re-use of CO2 as afeedstock for the production of other chemicals including syntheticfuels production (by reacting CO2 with hydrogen) In theory if verylarge amounts of zero-carbon electricity or hydrogen were availablethe chemicals industry could sequester more carbon than it emits Onestudy found the European chemicals industry could reduce its CO2

emissions by 210 Mt in 2050 a reduction 76 greater than the in-dustryrsquos business-as-usual 2050 CO2 emissions [120]

However in most cases use of feedstock CO2 is accompanied byhigh energy demands (Fig 10) This limits the number of potentialapplications For carbon capture and use in the chemicals industry tohave a material impact on global CO2 emissions the industry wouldneed substantial technological innovation and the availability of af-fordable zero-carbon hydrogen would need to scale greatly [121]Therefore fuels and chemical products manufactured from CO2 areunlikely to be significant contributors to global abatement in the nextone to two decades Often the energy required to convert CO2 tohigher-energy molecules could be used more efficiently to provide de-manded services directly (for instance using electricity to power elec-tric vehicles) or to drive other chemical pathways at least until abun-dant renewable electricity and zero-carbon hydrogen are available

Fig 10 Heat of formation ΔfH(g) of CO2 and various chemicals per carbon atom (kJmol) Chemicals are in the gas phase except urea which is in the solid phaseCondensation energy (such as energy associated with water formation in the urea production process) is not considered [121]


11

334 Chemical separationsSeparating chemical and material mixtures into their components is

a common process requirement across the manufacturing sector OakRidge National Laboratory and BCS [122] found that separations in theUS chemical refining forestry and mining industries account for5ndash7 of US total energy use (The range depends on the use of directenergy use vs purchased electricity) Chemical separations are mostcommonly accomplished through the thermal processes of distillationdrying and evaporation which together account for 80 of chemicalseparationsrsquo energy use Less energy-intensive processes such as mem-brane separation sorbent separations solvent extraction and crystal-lization have been less-frequently used because of issues of cost per-formance and familiarity As of 2005 Oak Ridge estimated thataccessible improvements could reduce direct energy use for separationsby about 5 which would reduce US emissions by about 20 milliontons of CO2eyear A more recent report [123] suggests that improvedapproaches could increase the US emissions reduction potential to 100million tons of CO2eyear

Improved separation technology may also increase the efficiency ofthe desalination industry which operates almost 16000 plants produ-cing 95 million cubic meters of desalinated water per day worldwide[124] Desalination capacity is growing rapidlymdashcapacity has morethan tripled since 2005 [124]mdashand more desalination may be neededin the future particularly in regions that will suffer increased waterscarcity due to climate change

Many new opportunities for improving the energy efficiency of se-parations stem from tailoring the molecular properties of membranepores or sorbents to interact with the target molecules with great spe-cificity For instance computational design of metal-oxide frameworks

has yielded improved products for capture of CO2 from flue gas andother sources [125126] Similarly tailored metal-oxide frameworkscan be used for separation of gold from seawater [127] The chemicalindustry has recognized the value of pursuing more efficient separa-tions and several initiatives to drive innovation in this space are un-derway [128]

34 Carbon capture and storage or use (CCS or CCU)

Transforming industrial processes via electrification alternativechemistries hydrogen combustion and other non-fossil fuel technolo-gies can lead to an eventual outcome of zero CO2 emissions but thesetechnologies are likely to leave a level of ldquoresidualrdquo CO2 emissionsunaddressed until after 2060 [24] This introduces the need for carbondioxide capture and permanent removal either via geological storageor embedding carbon within industrial products

Capture of carbon dioxide from industrial processes is a well-es-tablished technology and has been used in the oil refining and naturalgas processing sectors for decades There are many methods availablefor capture which can be classified as follows with numerous variantsof each class existing

bull Pre-combustion partially combusting a fuel to produce carbonmonoxide which is then reacted with steam via the water-gas shiftreaction to produce a mixture of hydrogen and carbon dioxidewhich are then separated for subsequent usebull Post-combustion a chemical absorbent or adsorbent is used to pullcarbon dioxide from combustion exhaust before being regeneratedby for example heating

Fig 11 An overview of underground carbon storage Though this diagram indicates compressed CO2 comes from a ldquopower stationrdquo it may also be produced by anindustrial facility or a cluster of facilities Image CC BY 40 European Commission (permission)


12

bull Oxyfuel combustion oxygen is separated from air and reacted withfuel in combustion reactions producing a stream of pure CO2 (someof which is recycled to act as a temperature moderator in thecombustion reaction)

Similarly geological storage of carbon dioxide has roots within theoil and gas industry and can be commercially delivered at scale today[33129130] In appropriate reservoirs (eg deep saline layers thatencourage fixation of the CO2 by reaction with surrounding geology)scientists believe storage of CO2 to be a safe option for long-term carbonmanagement [130131] However there is strong public opposition tounderground CO2 storage in some parts of the world [130] so increasededucation and outreach may be necessary to improve public accep-tance

A key challenge to CCS uptake is increased energy requirements andassociated costs Capturing and compressing CO2 is energy-intensive sosome of the energy produced must be devoted to powering the CCSprocess A 2015 study of US coal power plants found an efficiencypenalty of 113ndash229 which was sufficient to increase the levelizedcost of electricity produced by these plants by 53ndash77 centskWh ontop of a cost of 84 centskWh for plants without CCS [132] The Eur-opean Environment Agency reports a similar finding energy demandsare increased by 15ndash25 depending on the CCS technology used[133] Since more fuel must be combusted to meet these increasedenergy demands but only CO2 is captured (not other air pollutants)CCS can increase conventional air pollution Fine particulate matter(PM25) and nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions increase roughly in pro-portion to fuel consumption while ammonia (NH3) emissions maymore than triple if amine-based sorbents are used to capture the CO2

[133] Ambient air pollution causes roughly 88 million deaths per yearworldwide [134] so capturing a significant share of global CO2 emis-sions could be accompanied by a large increase in pollution-drivenmortality or else large investments in equipment to remove NOX andparticulates from the exhaust streams (which along with increasedenergy costs would challenge the cost-competitiveness of CCS) (seeFig 11)

Carbon capture and use (CCU) operates differently from permanentgeological storage (CCS) Carbon dioxide is converted into a finishedproduct (such as synthetic fuels plastics building materials etc) Theeffectiveness of CCU as a form of long-term CO2 storage depends on thefate of these manufactured products

If the manufactured product is a synthetic hydrocarbon fuel it maybe burned releasing the captured carbon back to the atmosphereAbatement depends on the energy used to make the synthetic fuel andthe extent to which the synthetic fuel displaces fossil fuels This optionis discussed in more detail in Section 33

If the manufactured product is not a fuel the carbon must remaintrapped in the industrial product The key determinant of the effec-tiveness of this storage option is not the useful life of a single product(which may be just a few years or decades) but the total stock of CO2-derived products in society To continue sequestering CO2 year afteryear that stock of products must continually grow (just as if using CCSthe amount of CO2 stored underground must continually grow) Thismay require CO2-derived products to be securely stored (protected fromdecay) at the end of their useful lives or it may require an increasingrate of CO2-derived material production to offset the decay of an ever-larger existing stock of material

Carbon capture also offers the prospect of stand-alone CO2 removalfacilities Carbon dioxide can be removed directly from the air viaemerging separation technologies (ldquodirect air capturerdquo) [135] or bygrowing biomass In the latter case the biomass is converted to anenergy product and the carbon dioxide from this reaction is capturedCombining these forms of air capture with geological storage or CO2 useoffers a sink which could be used to counterbalance the emissions of anindustrial facility

Direct air capture operates on a very small scale today and

scalability has yet to be demonstrated [136] Capture from bioenergyfacilities is scalable now and is being demonstrated at a commercialethanol plant in Illinois [137] A related option is to use biomass as acarbon sink For example Section 53 discusses increased use of woodin buildings

CCS is a commercially ready technology as demonstrated by anumber of large industrial facilities As of late 2019 the Global CCSInstitute lists 21 currently operating CCS projects with a combined CO2

capture capacity of 35ndash37 million metric tons per year [138] (thoughnot all of these plants are operating at maximum capacity) Examplesinclude the QUEST hydrogen production facility in Canada (1 Mt CO2yr) Archer Daniels Midlandrsquos corn-to-ethanol plant in Illinois (1 MtCO2yr) and the first CCS project in the iron and steel industry locatedin Abu Dhabi (08 Mt CO2yr)

Key to large-scale CCS deployment is a policy environment thatdelivers CO2 transport and storage infrastructure (such as a regulatedasset base model [139]) and provides revenue to support the additionaloperating costs (such as carbon pricing andor financial incentives forCCS) A clean energy or emissions intensity standard may also driveCCS adoption

4 Supply-side interventions Energy

41 Hydrogen

While electricity is a highly flexible energy carrier for a net-zeroenergy system it is presently difficult and expensive to store and to-dayrsquos batteries have lower energy density than thermal fuels Thismakes electricity difficult to use for long haul aviation heavy freightand high process heat needs [4884] There are also several chemicalfeedstock needs that cannot be met with electricity or only at very highcost [140] To maximize the potential of electricity one or morecompanion zero-carbon energy carriers are required

The most-discussed candidates for such an energy carrier are hy-drogen (H2) and chemicals that can be derived from hydrogen parti-cularly ammonia (NH3) and methane (CH4) or methanol (CH3OH)Relative to hydrogen ammonia is easier to transport and store [141]and existing natural gas infrastructure and equipment is built to handlemethane Fortunately ammonia and methane can be made from hy-drogen with an energy penaltymdashefficiencies of 70 for ammonia [141]and 64 for methane [142] have been demonstratedmdashso the ability toproduce low-cost carbon-free hydrogen is of great value even if am-monia or methane is the energy carrier of choice

Currently about 70 Mt of pure hydrogen are produced worldwideannually Of this total 76 is produced by steam reforming of me-thane 22 by coal gasification and 2 by electrolysis (using elec-tricity to split water molecules) [30] In addition hydrogen is alsoproduced as a by-product of industrial processes eg direct reductionof iron for steel-making and the chlor-alkali process to produce chlorineand sodium hydroxide Globally about 30 Mt of hydrogen is producedeach year as a byproduct [30] Most of the produced pure hydrogen isused in ammonia production (43) oil refining (34) methanolproduction (17) and other sectors (6) About 001 of the pro-duced pure hydrogen is used by fuel-cell electric vehicles [30] Globalhydrogen production from fossil fuels emits 830 Mt of CO2 per year[30] equivalent to the annual emissions from the energy used by 100million US homes

Steam reforming of methane requires input heat and produceschemical process CO2 emissions These process emissions are ideallysuited for carbon capture because there is no need to filter out atmo-spheric nitrogen [143] The IEA estimates that ldquobluerdquo hydrogen wherehydrogen is made with steam methane reforming (SMR) with CCS tocapture the process emissions could be made for $15kg in the MiddleEast and the US (compared to $10kg for unabated SMR hydrogen)$16kg in Russia and $24kg in Europe and China [30] There arealso emerging technologies to make hydrogen directly from fossil


13

methane via pyrolysis with elemental carbon as a co-product[144145] The sale of potentially high-value carbon co-products suchas carbon black graphite carbon fiber carbon nanotubes and needlecoke could help reduce the net cost of CO2-free hydrogen productionvia methane pyrolysis to $2kg H2 or less [146]

Coal-based hydrogen production also exists mostly in China About60 of Chinarsquos hydrogen production is from coal [147] and Chinaaccounted for 35 of the worldrsquos pure hydrogen production as well as28 of by-product hydrogen production [148] Hydrogen productionbased on coal gasification is more carbon-intensive than natural-gasbased steam methane reforming emitting 19 tCO2t H2 produced [30]It also has lower CO2 concentration in the syngas with higher impurities(eg sulphur nitrogen minerals) making carbon capture difficult andcostly [30]

There are several ways to split water into hydrogen and oxygenusing variants of electrolysis [120] The current standard process isalkaline electrolysis Solid oxide fuels cells (SOFCs) have the potentialto dramatically improve electrolysis efficiency compared to alkalineelectrolysis while proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs)originally developed for vehicle use promise the capability to providesmall modular and mobile electrolysis units Both SOFCs and PEMFCsoffer the possibility of improving the efficiency and cost of electrolysisby at least 50 There are also several research projects to directly usesunlight to generate hydrogen from water [149150] Other ap-proaches such as the use of bubble column reactors filled with liquidmetal have been explored [151]

The current economics of hydrogen production through electrolysisdepends on capital cost the cost of electricity and efficiency of thesystem Using renewable electricity per unit cost of hydrogen is in therange of $25ndash6kg H2 [30] or in some cases as high as $10kg H2

[152153] Studies estimate the future cost of electrolysis-based hy-drogen production may be reduced to $2ndash4kg H2 [30] Producinghydrogen from electricity also raises challenges for electricity demandand water needs At the current technology level it needs 51 kWhkgH2 and 9 L of fresh water per kg H2 If sea water or brackish water isused reverse osmosis for desalination is required which would addanother 3ndash4 kWhm3 for water treatment This would increase the costof hydrogen slightly about $001ndash002kg H2

Hydrogen has a very low density (009 kgm3 at ambient tem-perature and atmospheric pressure) Thus hydrogen storage is one ofthe key barriers for scale-up Currently most hydrogen is stored incompressed gas or liquid form for small-scale mobile and stationaryapplications [153] Both compressing and liquefication of hydrogenrequire high energy input at about 221 kWhkg H2 for compressing to40 kg H2m3 and 152 kWhkg H2 to achieve liquefication and 708 kgm3 [153154] In addition stored hydrogen is released through boiling-off losses to the atmosphere The losses are estimated to be larger forsmaller tanks (04 for a storage volume of 50 m3) and smaller forlarger tanks (006 for a 20000 m3 tank) [155] In addition solid-statestorage of hydrogen is also another potential alternative For examplesalt caverns have been used by the chemical industry for decades Thelow cost and high efficiency of this form of storage made it econom-ically attractive but its accessibility and capacity pose challenges forwider use [30]

Today 15 of the global hydrogen production is transported viatrucks or pipelines while the remaining 85 is produced and consumedonsite [30] To enable large-scale and long-distance transportation anddistribution new infrastructure is needed In addition hydrogen isprone to leaks because of its small molecular size and it can embrittleand diffuse through ordinary metals Therefore ldquoexisting high-pressurenatural gas pipelines are not suitable for hydrogen transportrdquo [156]Some low-pressure distribution and service pipes (such as those in-stalled in the UK since 1970) are made of polyethylene and can safelytransport hydrogen [156] Alternatively it is possible to blend 5ndash15hydrogen with natural gas in existing natural gas systems [157] orhydrogen could be transformed into another chemical energy carrier

[158] as discussed above In addition liquefied hydrogen could betransported via trucks railway tank cars and containers or pipelines[153] Hydrogen transportation losses also need to be improved asstudies pointed to a loss of 20 of using natural gas pipelines [159] Aswith all fuels hydrogen needs care in fire safety with risks differentthan but roughly on par with those of natural gas or LPG [160]Transporting hydrogen not only poses challenges financially forbuilding new pipelines but also requires policies and regulations to bein place to regulate ldquoblendingrdquo and harmonize regulations across re-gions [161]

In addition to its potential application in fuel cells electric vehiclesand buildings (to provide heat and electricity) bulk net-zero-GHG hy-drogen can be combusted for high temperature (gt 1000 degC) heat for awide variety of industries including steel and cement production Asdiscussed in Section 32 hydrogen could be used as a reagent (instead ofmethane) in the direct reduction of iron to produce sponge iron whichcould be used directly in an electric arc furnace Without consideringhydrogen losses a hydrogen-DRI process would require 51 kg H2ton ofsteel in addition to about 35 MWh of energy per ton of steel produced[96] Steelmaking using hydrogen as a chemical reducing agent wouldbe competitive in a region with a carbon price of $40ndash75t CO2e as-suming electricity costs of $005kWh [8396] As steel producers maylocate where electricity is inexpensive and LCOE for utility-scale solarand wind is already $003ndash005kWh [162] and is likely to drop fur-ther lower costs for hydrogen-based steel may be achieved

As noted in Section 33 hydrogen is a widely-used chemical feed-stock Accordingly another promising ldquostarter marketrdquo could be am-monia production for urea-based fertilizers amines fibers and plasticsHydrogen could outcompete natural gas over historic price ranges as afeedstock with no carbon pricing at renewable electricity costsachievable today ($003ndash006kWh) if the electrolysis load factor ex-ceeds 40 or else with a halving of electrolysis capital costs[27158163]

Low-cost renewable electricity also increases the attractiveness ofhydrogen energy storage Wind and solar electricity can be moved toclusters of industrial facilities using high voltage transmission linestransformed to hydrogen and stored for eventual use as is being ex-plored in North Rhine Westphalia Germany [164] Alternatively hy-drogen may be produced where large amounts of renewable electricityare available optionally converted to ammonia or methane and thentransported to industrial facilities Industrial carbon capture technolo-gies like calcium- and iron-based chemical looping [165166] couldeventually be combined with renewable hydrogen and oxygen pro-duction to allow for economic bulk production of net-zero emittingsynthetic hydrocarbons or for energy storage [84] Hydrogen could alsoprovide support for variable electricity generation through fuel cells orcombustion turbines while excess zero-carbon power (for examplewind power generation on a windy night) can be used to make and storehydrogen

Thanks to its versatility (as an energy source and chemical feed-stock) as well as the difficulty of directly electrifying all industrialprocesses hydrogen or chemical energy carriers derived from hydrogenwill likely be a key part of a net-zero emissions industry sector

42 Electrification

In 2016 direct fuel combustion accounted for 73 of global in-dustry energy use while electricity accounted for only 27 [167]Fuels combusted in industrial facilities are primarily used for processheating (46) and for fueling boilers (41) with the remainderpowering motor-driven systems and other end uses (Fig 12) Thereforeelectrifying process and boiler heating with decarbonized electricityshould be an early focus of industrial electrification efforts

Electromagnetic (EM) energy interacts with different materials inunique ways In some cases there may exist a transformation pathwaythat produces the desired output product with less total heat input than


14

traditional fuel-using process heating operations Electricity-basedtechnologies that can lead to process improvements and enable newpathways with reduced thermal requirements and high efficiencies in-clude

bull General-purpose heating may be provided by heat pumps induc-tion heating or infrared microwave and radio frequency excitationof molecules [169170]bull Specific applications where thermal heat can be replaced withelectricity include laser sintering resistive heating and electric arcfurnacesbull Non-thermal alternatives to heating may be provided by ultra-violet light and electron beams in some applications

One of the challenges to widespread industrial electrification is cost[171] Using a US industry-weighted average thermal fuel price of$686MMBtu and an electricity price of $2054MMBtu electricityloads would need to be 13 of those for thermal fuels in order toequalize energy costs Process heating offers instances where heatingwith fuel has an efficiency less than a third that of electrical heatingmaking electricity costs lower than fuel costs in these cases On theother hand thermal fuel-fired boilers often have much higher effi-ciencies (80 or higher) making steam derived from fuel-fired boilersless expensive than steam produced by electric boilers However thecorrect approach is not to look at boiler efficiency in isolation but toalso consider the efficiency of the service provided by the steam Thereare instances where steam use itself has low efficiency (eg heatingproducts by steam injection) and these cases should be identified ascandidates for replacement of steam with electric heating

In addition to energy cost issues there are a number of challengesarising from the interrelated nature of the technologies and processesFor example [172]

bull Specificity of application EM wave interactions vary by materialin complex ways requiring a greater command of relevant physicsslowing industry uptakebull Specificity of equipment In a traditional system the same type ofequipment (eg a boiler) is sufficient for many processes In a highlyefficient electrified process the material to be processed may be-come an integral part of the system and equipment may need to bedesigned specifically to handle this material and its transformationbull Challenges of scale-up Technology barriers such as limitations ofpower supplies may make it difficult to implement electrified pro-cesses at very large scalebull Challenges of scale-down Very complex expensive equipmentmay be difficult to scale down to a size and cost that is accessible tosmall manufacturers

An integrated RampD approach can aim to overcome these limitationsHigh-performance computer simulation of EM interactions with mate-rials in proposed industrial systems can help to clarify the relevant

physics and assist in system design Additionally RampD into EM sourcesfor manufacturing the use of EM energy in industrial systems and newdesigns for industrial equipment must be pursued

43 Energy efficiency

431 The importance of integrated designIndustrial energy efficiency is often over-simplified to procuring

efficient equipment Realizing the full efficiency potential requires re-viewing not only equipment efficiency but more importantly the sys-tems of which it is a part [173] For example in the petroleum refiningindustry traditional process design starts at the reactor and then movesoutward layer by layer rather than designing the system as an in-tegrated whole (Fig 13)

To maximize the yield of desirable products thermodynamics andchemical kinetics are used to establish desired pressures and tempera-tures in the reactor and for separation operations Next based onstream flow rates and other physical properties a heat exchanger net-work is designed around the reactor and separation operations to pro-vide required heating or cooling [174] Processes are often integratedthrough flows of material energy and information so each processoften affects interrelated processes For example improved materialefficiency will improve energy efficiency and the collection andtransmission of data enables process optimization and controls thatimprove both

Efficiency measures can be categorized by the level at which theyare implemented and by whether they directly affect the flow of massenergy or information Each presents opportunities for technologicalimprovement however system-wide optimization requires complexmulti-physics solutions and the performance of various process heatingand motor-driven components is heavily affected by enabling technol-ogies like sensors and process controls advanced materials and designtoolssystems integration

In some cases the system to consider may not be limited to a singleproduction line or even a single facility Clusters of industrial facilitiesmay benefit from heat integration and may use each otherrsquos co-pro-ducts A recent study investigating the integration of a steel mill ce-ment plant fertilizer plant and recycled paper facility in an eco-in-dustrial park found that a 21 energy savings could be achieved by co-location and intra-site transfer of heat with payback time of only43 days for the heat exchanger network [175]

Many industries face similar challenges and can benefit fromsystem-oriented design For example some characteristics of commonindustrial process heating operations are shown in Table 2

Designing systems as an integrated whole can result in favorablefinancial returns In roughly $40 billion of diverse industrial projectswhole-system redesign was found to yield 30ndash60 energy savings inretrofits (with a payback period of a few years) and 40ndash90 energysavings in newly built facilities (at equivalent or lower capital cost)[177] Most industrial practice is not yet at this level

Fig 12 Distribution of energy end-uses in the US manufacturing sector in2014 The top bar shows end uses of electricity (including site-to-source losses)and the bottom bar shows direct combustible fuel use [168]

Fig 13 Traditional process design in the petroleum refining industry starts atthe reactor and moves outward layer by layer rather than designing the systemas an integrated whole [174]


15

432 Efficient steam systems and heat recoverySteam systems (including the boilers used for generating steam and

the condensate return steam trap and heat exchanger networks used inthe distribution and application of steam) constitute one of the largestend uses of energy in the global manufacturing sector [5] As suchtechnology opportunities for improving the efficiency of steam systemshave long been a focus of industrial energy efficiency programs [178]yet facility audit data routinely reveal untapped energy savings po-tential in the steam systems found in many plants [179] Commoncauses of inefficiency include aging boilers improper system controlinsulation and maintenance and fouling of heat transfer surfacesLimited capital funds and low fuel prices were found to be persistentbarriers to efficiency upgrades

The current efficiency gap is largely one of deployment as opposedto technology availability the efficiency of modern boiler packageswith integrated heat recovery can exceed 85 while advanced systemmonitoring and controls coupled with best-available process heatingequipment can reduce overall steam demand to its practical minimumvalue [180] For example Japanese boiler manufacturer Miura foundthat replacing a single large boiler with multiple small boilers whoseoperation is controlled to match fluctuations in steam demand canachieve energy savings of 10ndash30 [181] As water becomes a scarcerresource in many locations avoiding water costs by raising steamsystem efficiency can improve the economic value proposition and ac-celerate equipment upgrades [182]

One option to further reduce the carbon footprint of industrialsteam systems is to fire boilers using solid liquefied or gasified bio-mass though the quality and moisture content of the biomass must becontrolled to avoid inefficiencies Another option is to use electricboilers coupled with renewable power sources though as noted inSection 42 boilers that burn thermal fuel are highly efficient so energycosts of electric boilers are likely to be higher (absent policy such as acarbon price and excepting systems where steam itself is used in-efficiently)

Despite the relatively high efficiency of modern steam systems in-vestments in boiler technology RampD may yield further improvements Apublic-private partnership to develop an innovative space-savingmaximally-efficient boiler (dubbed the ldquoSuper Boilerrdquo) achieved de-monstrated fuel-to-steam efficiencies of 93ndash94 over a decade ago[183] However further investments are needed to deliver such in-novations to market and to drive down costs Cost reductions are par-ticularly useful to increase uptake in developing countries where re-latively inefficient equipment remains in widespread use

For some processes where high temperatures are not required suchas food processing [184] an industrial heat pump can deliver heat atefficiencies far greater than is possible using either fuel combustion orresistive electric heating For example Kraft Foods replaced a naturalgas-fired water heater with a heat pump at a plant in Iowa resulting inenergy savings of $250000 per year while also saving 53 million L ofwater per year from reduced load on their refrigeration systemsrsquo eva-porative condensers [185] Todayrsquos commercially-available heat pumpsdeliver temperatures up to 100 degC and with RampD heat pumps that

deliver higher temperatures could be developed [186] Considerationsin heat pump selection include the technology to be used (double-effectabsorption compression-absorption solar assisted chemical etc) ca-pacity cost and payback period [187]

433 Best practices for energy-efficient industrial system designThe best practice in designing efficient industrial operations is to

analyze the entire process by working ldquobackwardsrdquo from the desiredapplication to the energy-consuming equipment Design should be anintegrative process that accounts for how each part of the system affectsother parts The opportunity may be divided into the following designlayers [176]

1 Optimize the core process system for energy efficiencybull Apply utilities (electricity heating cooling physical force) atappropriate qualitybull Leverage energy recovery opportunitiesbull Switch to fundamentally more efficient processes that achieve thesame endmdashfor example replace compressed air systems with fansblowers vacuum pumps brushes etc [188]

2 Design an efficient distribution systembull Minimize losses in distribution systems through appropriatesizing reducing distances insulating pipes avoiding 90deg bends ofpipes and ducts etcbull Manage leaks and uncontrolled use of steam hot and chilledwater and compressed air

3 Select correctly-sized equipment that provides the desired utilityegbull Right-size equipment to allow for operation around optimal loadbull Balance refrigeration system and chiller capacities to needs

4 Install efficient equipmentbull Select pumps and fans that provide sufficient flow while mini-mizing energy usebull Install best available boiler technologiesbull Utilize highly efficient controllable motors (such as variable-speed drives)

5 Control the system for efficient operationbull Avoid idling of equipmentbull Managereduce variability in the process and product flow

6 Plan for efficient equipment upgradesbull Time equipment upgrades to correspond with system redesignbull Budget for decommissioning of obsolete facilities

Many interventions are best implemented when existing equipmentfails or during a major plant modernization or retrofit [189] For ex-ample core process redesign may require many ancillary componentsto be replaced while distribution system upgrades (eg pipes etc) canbe complicated by physical constraints and the need to relocateequipment Even upgrading a single piece of equipment can have un-intended challenges or result in a need for cascading upgrades makingit risky to attempt such upgrades during routine maintenance periods[189190] In contrast some operational or control system

Table 2Characteristics of common industrial process heating operations including typical applications and required temperature ranges [176]

Process heating operation Descriptionexample applications Typical temperature range (degC)

Fluid heating boiling and distillation Distillation reforming cracking hydrotreating chemicals production food preparation 70ndash540Drying Water and organic compound removal 100ndash370Metal smelting and melting Ore smelting steelmaking and other metals production 430ndash1650Calcining Lime calcining cement-making 800ndash1100Metal heat treating and reheating Hardening annealing tempering 100ndash800Non-metal melting Glass ceramics and inorganics manufacturing 800ndash1650Curing and forming Polymer production molding extrusion 150ndash1400Coking Cokemaking for iron and steel production 370ndash1100Other Preheating catalysis thermal oxidation incineration softening and warming 100ndash1650


16

improvements can be made through re-training of workers or softwareupdates outside of a plant retrofit

The challenge of achieving significant improvement in energy effi-ciency is not primarily about new technology but improving designequipment selection and control practices Large potential savings arefound in applying known technologies in more efficient ways ratherthan deploying break-through solutions Some organization-level(training goal-setting procurement) interventions include

1 Training programs and curriculum for engineers and operatorsshould shift to a systems focus

2 Energy management should be integrated into existing performancemanagement structures and tool boxes (ERP lean six sigma ISOetc) This provides visibility into energy performance and is a cri-tical first step to identifying opportunities [191]

3 Equipment should be designed or purchased as an optimized systemrather than as a collection of individual components [192]

Although large emissions reductions can be realized today via inimproved system design equipment selection and controls thesemeasures will not be sufficient to achieve a zero-carbon industrialsector Completely eliminating GHG emissions from industry will re-quire RampD to develop new technologies adapt these technologies intocommercial components and to progressively integrate those compo-nents into highly energy-efficient and cost-effective systems [170]Some opportunities for future RampD effort in industrial process heatingoperations include non-thermal water removal technologies (egmembranes) hybrid distillation precisely targeted high-temperaturematerials processing (eg microwave heating) and net-shape manu-facturing (creating components that do not require finish machining)[193]

5 Demand-side interventions

Reaching Paris Agreement targets will require not only the in-novative processes and efficiency improvements described in previoussections but also demand-side interventions Demand-side interven-tions include improved product longevity more intensive product usematerial efficiency material substitution and demand changes drivenby circular economy interventions [194195]

51 Reduced material use longevity intensity and material efficiency

Extending the life of cars trains and buildings will reduce demandfor steel concrete and other materials as well as their associated GHGemissions Concrete and structural steel can last for 200 years if wellmaintained [64] However typical building and infrastructure lifetimesare 60ndash80 years in developed countries and half that long in China[196197]

In many cases the limit to building longevity is not the failure of thebuildingrsquos structural materials such as wood frame steel and concreteA study of demolished North American buildings found that over 87of demolitions were driven by changing land values (the building wasno longer a cost-effective use of the land) the buildingrsquos lack of suit-ability for current needs or a lack of maintenance of non-structuralcomponents [198] Similarly in China many new buildings aredemolished long before the failure of their structural materials Keyreasons include hasty construction with poor workmanship low-qualityfinishes a lack of maintenance Chinese consumer preferences for newproducts and government condemnation [199] (In China all propertytaxes are paid upon purchase of a building so local governments have afinancial incentive to order buildings be demolished to make way fornew ones [199]) Therefore increasing the longevity of buildings is notsimply a matter of improved materials Addressing this challenge re-quires solutions specific to the needs of each community such as de-signing buildings for flexible re-use expandability ease of

maintenance use of quality interior and exterior finishes and reform offinancial incentives for builders and governments

Though increased longevity lowers material-related emissions inthe case of products that consume energy (such as vehicles and ma-chinery) longevity may increase energy-related emissions by keepingless-efficient products in service when they otherwise would have beenreplaced with more efficient products Therefore longevity is best-suited to products that have a large percentage of their total lifecycleGHG emissions embodied in their materials (such as buildings and in-frastructure)

More intensive product use can be achieved by increasing productutilization rates (so fewer products are needed to provide the samebenefits) For example the average light-duty vehicle in the UnitedStates is used for about 6 h per week to carry 14 people at a time [200]Using smaller vehicles better matching the vehicle to the specific needand sharing vehicles could all significantly reduce demand for vehiclesand thus the emissions associated with material production (Usingpublic transit is even more material-efficient) One study found thatdense urban areas have per-capita emissions 20 lower than ruralareas despite urban areasrsquo smaller household sizes due to shorter traveldistances and increased ability to share carbon-intensive goods [201]Short-term rentals of rooms or entire homes can decrease the demandfor new hotel construction and programs for sharing tools and clothesshow emissions benefits even after accounting for trips to pick up andreturn the shared items [202]

Material efficiency is a general term for producing the same set ofproducts with less material In some products far more material is usedthan is required Commercial buildings in developed countries arefrequently built with up to twice the amount of steel required for safety[64] Based on a set of engineering case studies of common productclasses like cars structural beams rebar and pipelines Allwood andCullen [65] estimated that ldquowe could use 30 less metal than we do atpresent with no change in the level of material service provided simplyby optimizing product design and controlling the loads that they ex-perience before and during userdquo Similarly engineers have been able toreduce concrete mass in buildings by up to 40 by using high strengthconcrete only where needed (eg using curved molds) instead of usingthe simplest mold shapes [64] Because commodity materials typicallyrepresent a very small portion of the final cost of a product manu-facturing and construction firms frequently choose to use more materialto save labor reduce legal or financial risk risks simplify supply chainsor simply to conform with customary practices Appropriate tech-nology markets and legal structures would facilitate higher materialefficiency in buildings infrastructure and other products

Material efficiency is closely associated with lightweighting re-ducing a productrsquos mass to reduce its in-use energy consumption It ismost often considered for vehicles where steel can be replaced withaluminum carbon fiber or other strong lightweight materials therebyincreasing the fuel efficiency of the vehicles [203] These materialsoften have higher embodied emissions per vehicle than the heaviermaterials they are replacing [194204] Fortunately the energy andGHG emissions saved by a lightweight vehicle during its lifetime aregenerally greater than the extra energy and emissions associated withmaking its special materials [205] Life cycle assessments (includingproduction use and disposalrecyclability) can be used to understandthe trade-offs and show where material substitution makes sense [206]

At first glance calling for reductions in demand for industrial goodscan seem politically economically or socially unpalatable Howeverthrough increased longevity intensiveness and material efficiencyindustrial demand reductions can be achieved while maintaining oreven improving the quality of the services delivered Providing betterservices with less material will be a cornerstone of a clean developmentpathway for developing countries helping to make widespread pros-perity compatible with global climate goals


17

52 Additive manufacturing (3D Printing)

Digital manufacturingmdasha key component of the ldquoIndustry 40rdquoconcept [207]mdashlinks designers supply chains production facilitiesand customers to reduce product lead times optimize inventories re-duce costs and increase product customization [208]

Within the digital manufacturing movement additive manu-facturing (AM) is one of the most visible and potentially transformativeprocess technologies [209] Under the right circumstances AM offersseveral advantages compared to conventional manufacturing methodsSuch advantagesmdashwhile highly application-specificmdashcan include re-ductions in lead time materials scrap and inventory costs while deli-vering novel geometries that were previously extremely costly or im-possible to manufacture using conventional methods [210]

Driven by these advantages the market for AM technology hasgrown rapidly in recent years In 2017 the global AM industry grew by21 to over $73 billion [211] and may exceed $21 billion by 2020[212] However AM currently faces barriers that may limit the pace ofadoption in the near term including high production costs lowthroughput rates and part fatigue life limitations [210213] For thesereasons early adoption of AM has been primarily driven by applicationswith high material costs low production volumes and novelcomplexgeometries such as those in the aerospace medical and tooling in-dustries [214] As AM machine manufacturers innovate to reduce costsand improve process performancemdasheg new binder jetting technolo-gies may increase production speeds by an order of magnitude[215]mdashnew high-volume applications such as automotive parts maybecome feasible while improved powder metallurgy and process con-trols may open markets in demanding applications such as turbineblades [216]

From energy and resource perspectives the benefits of AM may besignificant When replacing subtractive conventional manufacturing

methods such as milling drilling and grinding AM can reduce mate-rials scrap leading to avoided raw materials production and shippingThe ldquoon demandrdquo nature of AM can reduce inventories of tools diesand finished parts further reducing materials demand As an electricity-driven process AM may promote industrial electrification by replacingthermal forming processes such as metal casting and forging Finallynovel AM geometries may lead to energy savings beyond the industrialsector though improved engineering functionality in end-use applica-tions for example AM enables the creation of optimized heat sinks thatreduce energy waste [217] AM has also been used by Airbus to producelightweight aircraft components that reduce fuel consumption [218] anindustry for which the life-cycle energy and resource savings of AMparts can be substantial [219]

53 Material substitution

Substituting lower embodied-carbon materials for higher embodied-carbon materials in products can be an important mechanism for re-ducing industrial GHG emissions The product category that representsthe largest amount of GHG emissions is building materials especiallyconcrete and steel Collectively these represent nearly 10 of totalglobal emissions [37] Because of their enormous scalemdash4 Gtyear ofcement production and 18 Gtyear of steel production [3973]mdashveryfew other materials are available in quantities sufficient to noticeablyreduce consumption Within building materials two commonly-dis-cussed opportunities for substitution at scale are timber-based productsand partial replacement of cement with supplementary cementitiousmaterials

Wood products can be substituted for steel and concrete in much ofthe superstructure of low- and medium-rise buildings Glued-and-la-minated timber (ldquoglulamrdquo) is increasingly used for bearing weight inhigh-rise buildings and cross-laminated timber (CLT) has strength andperformance superior to traditional plywood [220] Recent projectsdemonstrate the feasibility of large wood buildings Towers over 84 mtall were recently built in Austria [221] and Norway [222] surpassingthe 2017 record set by an 18-story 53-meter building in British Co-lumbia [223] (Fig 14) In addition wood fibers and straw can be usedfor insulation material [224] timber frame constructions can replacebrick and reinforced concrete fiberboards can replace gypsum boardsetc [225226]

In addition to emitting far less GHGs in their production woodproducts also store carbon for the life of the structure and can be sus-tainably produced if forestland is properly managed From a lifecycleperspective wooden buildings typically outperform an equivalentbuilding made from concrete [227] Oliver et al [228] found thatsubstituting wood for structural steel is the most efficient way to useforests to mitigate GHG emissions However more research is neededto

bull quantify how much steel and cement could realistically be replacedbased on structure type climate and construction demandbull quantify the emissions from making the wood products under rea-listic forest management and manufacturing assumptions andbull understand the safeguards that would be needed to prevent an ex-pansion of wood-based construction from turning into a driver ofdeforestation or forest degradation

Supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) are a wide range ofmaterials that can substitute for some or much of the limestone-basedclinker in ordinary Portland cement They include fly ash a by-productof coal combustion granulated blast-furnace slag a by-product of theiron industry calcined clay and naturally occurring pozzolanic mi-nerals (For more detail see Section 31) Today SCMs replace nearly20 of the clinker in cement worldwide The UN Environment Programestimates that an appropriate combination of SCMs could substitute for40 of clinker [229] Among the lowest-emissions and most widely-

Fig 14 Brock Commons an 18-story student residence building at theUniversity of British Columbia was the worldrsquos tallest wooden skyscraper whencompleted in May 2017 Image CC BY-NC 20 University of British Columbia


18

available options for reducing clinker content in cement are calcinedclays and inert fillers which will not compromise performance if usedappropriately and could reduce annual emissions from the cementsector by over 600 MtCO2 per year if widely adopted [49]

In cases where a material is crucial to a buildingrsquos energy perfor-mance (eg insulation) a lifecycle assessment must be consideredbefore substituting a lower-carbon material to ensure the emissionssavings from using the substitute material are not outweighed by poorerenergy performance during the buildingrsquos lifetime Certain advancedinsulation materials have higher embodied carbon than traditional in-sulation but they may more than make up for this through heating andcooling energy savings

54 Circular economy

The term Circular Economy (CE) contrasts with the idea of a ldquolineareconomyrdquo the predominant value chain structure today in whichgoods are produced consumed and discarded In a CE every end-of-lifeproduct is considered a resource that can be put to valuable use Ratherthan being a single type of activity (such as ldquorecyclingrdquo) CE is a cascadeof options that put each product component or material to its highestor best use minimizing value loss [230] The first option is for a pro-ductrsquos original user to keep it for longer share it with others andprolong its service life through proper maintenance and repair Whenthis is not possible the next-best option is to transfer the product to anew user The third-best option is to refurbish or remanufacture theproduct (Remanufacturing is dis-assembling and re-using the compo-nents of the product) The fourth-best option is to recycle the rawmaterials that make up the product (Fig 15)

Assessments of the techno-economical potential of increased circu-larity vary widely and can be difficult to compare due to different unitsand assumptions For example Cooper et al find CE has the potential tosave 6ndash11 of worldwide energy used for ldquoeconomic activityrdquo [231]while Material Economics finds that CE could reduce 2050 CO2 emis-sions from steel plastics aluminum and cement in the EU by 56relative to a 2050 baseline scenario (a 59 reduction relative to 2015emissions levels) [232] There is however broad consensus that CEpotential is held back by limited ability to achieve comparable

performance with virgin material driven by the challenges of separ-ating blended or assembled materials For example the copper contentof recycled steel is generally higher than is allowable for the mostcommon steel end uses [24] unless the recycled steel is diluted withprimary steel New separation technologies may help to improve thequality of recycled metals [233]

One key barrier to high-quality secondary materials is that in-formation about the material is lost over the course of its service lifeFor example structural steel is usually in fine condition for reuse whena building is demolished but its alloy content and specifications are nolonger known This means that expensive testing is required to de-termine its composition before it could be reused and it is often morecost-effective to put it in poorly-differentiated waste streams for re-cycling at a lower grade The standard categories for steel scrap do notspecify the copper content [234] even though copper will prevent therecycled steel from being used in many high-value applications [235]like sheet metal for vehicles Policies that ensure sufficient informationfollows the materials and components throughout their life whetherthrough low-technology interventions like indelible marking or higher-technology options like blockchain [236] facilitate first reuse thenhigher-value recycling of product components and materials

Design for reuse and recycling takes this one step further not justproviding information but modifying the products to encourage reuseand recycling Approaches include modular design reversible attach-ments and material standardization Again using the example ofstructural steel reversible joints like ConX joints [237] standardize themounting and disconnecting of beams making it easier to reuse themThe primary policy mechanism that has been used to encourage thesetypes of design changes is Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)where the manufacturer or retailer is required to take physical or fi-nancial responsibility for discarded products [238] However EPR hasnot yet been widely applied in the contexts that would have the greatestimpact on industrial emissions namely building materials and com-modity metals

Increasing the circularity of our economy may require the creationof business models around secondary materials which can be facilitatedby supporting policies Leasing models can require products be returnedat the end of the lease period for refurbishment and subsequent lease or

Fig 15 A schematic overview of material flows within a circular economy Products components and materials are put to the best possible use minimizing valueloss [230]


19

sale to another consumer While such business models exist for certainproducts (eg cars) and are easy to imagine for durable consumer goods(eg large appliances) they are less intuitive for short-lived consumergoods public infrastructure or the built environment Some nationsand regions are beginning to implement supporting policy such asChinarsquos Circular Economy Promotion Law of 2009 [239] and a CEpackage implemented by the European Commission [240]

Ultimately to limit global warming to acceptable levels significantdecreases in carbon-intensive material consumption will be requiredCE can help to achieve this decrease without lowering countriesrsquo stan-dard of living or hampering their development The opportunity of CEleads to an imperative for policy action (and may result in significantbusiness opportunities) Key areas for policy intervention are

bull Ratchet up performance requirements in building codes at definedintervals to drive innovationbull Include the implications of shared mobility solutions in zoning andurban planningbull Build out reverse supply chains for collection of used products forrepurposing or recyclingbull Regulate requirements for disassembly of products (eg batteries inelectronics must be removable)bull Establish tools and information infrastructure to track and monitormaterial flows to enable new business models and improve materialrecapture

6 Policies

Policy interventions can cause emissions reductions via a number ofeconomic channels [241] These include input substitution (use of low-carbon energy or input materials) process changes (energy efficiencynovel process development use of recycled materials carbon capture)and demand reduction (material efficiency material substitution cir-cular economy etc)

Economically-efficient policies often provide incentives for dec-arbonization via all channels facilitating the proper allocation of re-sources in investment decisions [242] For example well-designedcarbon pricing can invoke efficient responses in all channels (seeSection 61) Well-written technology-neutral emissions standards canalso be economically efficient A standard applied to a specific industrywould be met via input substitution andor process changes A flexibleemissions intensity standard that enables trading of credits across fa-cilities within a sector and ideally trading of credits across sectorscould deliver cost effectiveness similar to that of carbon pricingEmissions intensity standards may also drive demand reduction Forexample if steel producers switch to hydrogen-based direct reducediron (eg HYBRIT) to comply with emissions intensity requirements of atechnology-neutral standard costs may be 30ndash40 higher than steelmade in existing state-of-the-art electric arc furnaces [96163243]Higher-cost steel could trigger demand reduction through material ef-ficiency longevity or output substitution to use of other materials

Even if a policy does not provoke all of these responses it can stillbe a worthwhile policy to help decarbonize the industry sector if usedas part of a package of policies For example policies to support RampDefforts can accelerate progress on new technologies in the laboratoryand can help these new technologies successfully reach the market(discussed in Section 62) RampD support policies might not on theirown achieve emissions reductions via all channels but the technolo-gies they produce make compliance with other policies (such as carbonpricing or emissions standards) possible at lower cost There is a similarenabling role for policies such as government procurement of low-carbon goods (helping to build a market for low-carbon technologies sothey achieve economies of scale) labeling and disclosure requirements(giving policymakers and purchasers the information they need to makedecisions) and more No single policy is a ldquosilver bulletrdquo Decarbonizingthe industry sector requires a comprehensive package of policies the

best of which are discussed in the following sections

61 Carbon pricing

One of the most prominent emissions-reduction policies is carbonpricing which requires emitters to pay a fee per ton of CO2 (or betterper ton of GHGs measured in CO2-equivalent) they emit Some benefitsof carbon pricing include [244]

bull Carbon pricing is technology-neutral allowing emitters to find thelowest-cost way to reduce emissions or to pay the carbon price incases where emissions reductions would be more expensivebull Carbon pricing helps regulators to cost-effectively limit GHG emis-sions from the industry sector without the need to develop expertisein manufacturing processes as might be required to intelligently setemissions standards for certain types of equipment or per unit of acommodity producedbull Carbon pricing generates government revenue which can be used tosupport socially beneficial objectives and programs (such as fundingRampD in new technologies) or to reduce taxes on income or labor

A carbon price may be implemented as a carbon tax (a fee per unitof emissions) which results in certainty about carbon prices but un-certainty regarding emissions from covered industries Another ap-proach is a cap-and-trade system (where industries must purchasecredits on a market or at auction in order to emit) This provides cer-tainty about emissions from covered industries but there is uncertaintyover how much permits will cost as permit prices are determined in themarketplace on the basis of how expensive it is to reduce GHG emis-sions Carbon pricing may be implemented as a hybrid of these twosystems most commonly a cap-and-trade system with a price ceilingand a price floor which effectively turns the carbon cap into a carbontax if the permits would become too cheap or too expensive The hybridapproach limits price uncertainty and quantity uncertainty to knownbounds effectively balancing the economic and environmental objec-tives of a carbon pricing policy [244]

One frequent concern with carbon pricing is ldquoleakagerdquo or the re-location of emitting industrial activities to jurisdictions with lessstringent or absent carbon pricing Estimating leakage risk accurately ischallenging [245] and estimates of the importance of leakage varywidely from study to study For example

bull An ex-post analysis of the steel and cement industries under theEuropean Union ETS found no evidence of leakage during the firsttwo phases of the program covering 2005ndash2012 [246]bull Carbon Trust and Climate Strategies find that the European UnionETS Phase III targets to 2020 without any free allocation of al-lowances or other pricing protections ldquowould drive less than 2 ofemissions abroadrdquo though leakage would be higher for energy-in-tensive industries ldquo5ndash10 of cement or steel emissionsrdquo [247]bull A study of the US Portland cement industry found that a carbonprice of $60ton CO2 with all permits auctioned (effectively acarbon tax) would reduce domestic emissions by almost 1000 MtCO2 and would increase foreign emissions by about 200 Mt aleakage rate of slightly over 20 [248]bull A study by Ho Morgenstern and Shih found an economy-wide $10ton carbon tax in the US without border adjustments would resultin a 25 overall leakage rate and a leakage rate of over 40 in thethree most energy-intensive industries [249]

There exist several approaches to limit leakage One remedy isoutput-based free allocation of emissions allowances to energy-in-tensive trade-exposed industries (eg the Western Climate Initiativeand European Union systems) or tax rebates based on a firmrsquos output(eg Canadarsquos system) This approach will help to preserve the marketshare of regulated industries but it will limit decarbonization as final


20

consumers do not receive the full price signal to drive product sub-stitution or conservation Alternatively border tax adjustments canapply an import tariff calibrated to reflect embodied emissions in im-ported goods and to rebate taxes on goods for export or a fee can beplaced on the consumption of goods based on embedded carbon[243250] These approaches have the advantage that all economicchannels are priced with respect to domestic consumption but theyrequire reliable information about GHG emissions from productionactivities inside and outside the jurisdiction

A tradable emissions intensity performance standard also providesan incentive for input substitution and process changes This approachis analytically equivalent to output-based allocation under cap andtrade except there is no cap Output can grow or contract if the per-formance standard is achieved and tradability ensures a cost-effectiveallocation of emissions reduction efforts within the silo of regulatedentities just as in direct carbon pricing Examples of tradable intensityperformance standards include vehicle fleet efficiency standards andlow carbon fuel standards in the transportation sector as well as re-newable portfolio standards in the electricity sector Together thesepolicies in the US and Europe have contributed the major portion ofGHG abatement achieved to date from climate-related policies[164251ndash253] Carbon pricing and tradable emissions standards canprovide incentives to develop technologies that enable further emis-sions reductions [254]

62 RDampD support

621 RDampD policies in contextResearch development and demonstration (RDampD) is important

both for developing new technologies and processes as well as ad-dressing hurdles in scaling existing processes New technical challengesemerge at every stage of market development (Fig 16) While companyresearch can address some of these hurdles policies and programs tosupport RDampD can speed technological development Successful in-novation in this space also depends on coordination across manu-facturing scales as much of the learning takes place as companies movetheir ideas beyond prototypes and demonstration through commercia-lization [255]

622 Policies to promote industrial RDampDA wide range of policies and programs have been successful in

supporting industrial research at various stages of technology maturityand deployment with governments at the local and federal oftenplaying an important role For example the US Department of Energy(DOE) has many case studies illustrating approaches to encourage in-novation [176]

Government policies to promote industrial RDampD generally fall intofive broad categories

bull Supporting government laboratories (Japanrsquos METI DOE NationalLabs)bull Governmental funding of academic public or private research in-stitutes (Germanyrsquos Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Manufacturing USAInstitutes the US National Science Foundation)bull Establishing research partnerships between government industryand sometimes philanthropy (Industries of the Future Elysis part-nership)bull Supporting entrepreneurial development of innovative technologies(Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC) DOErsquosAdvanced Research Project Agency-Energy)bull Financial incentives for corporate RampD (RampD tax credits contractresearch grants)

Government laboratories can be an important source of expertiseand physical facilities that may be too costly for individual companiesto develop Examples of national laboratories include the USDepartment of Energy (DOE) Laboratories and the French CNRSInstitutes These institutions conduct research on their own and in co-operation with academic institutions and private companies DOE la-boratories have initiatives to aid in the commercialization of technol-ogies such as the Lab-Embedded Entrepreneurship Programs whichaim to help entrepreneurial scientists and engineers complete the RDampDnecessary to launch new energy or manufacturing businesses [257]

Some countries have supported the creation of independent re-search institutions to fill a similar role to government-run national la-boratories with Germanyrsquos Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft being perhaps thebest known The US has emulated this approach over the past decadeswith the establishment of the Manufacturing USA institutes These in-stitutes partner with academic institutions and private companies to

Fig 16 This figure is a notional depiction oftechnology progression highlighting that sig-nificant technology challenges occur at everystage of market development RDampD has a role atall levels of manufacturing scale and RDampDprograms and policies will be most successfulwhen designed to stimulate innovation acrossthe entire opportunity space [256]


21

address technical challenges Regional and local initiatives are alsoimportant to drive innovation and stimulate economic developmentneeded for a vibrant industrial ecosystem For instance the BenFranklin Technology Partners in Pennsylvania provides manufacturerswith funding business and technical expertise and access to expertresources It has thus far achieved a four-to-one return on investmentfor the state [258]

The US has in the past successfully co-funded industry-specificresearch at academic institutions in partnership with industrial tradeassociations For example the Industries of the Future Program aimed toidentify and address energy efficiency challenges specific to energy-intensive industries The US DOErsquos Bandwidth Studies series assessesthe technical potential for state-of-the-art and next generation tech-nologies to improve the energy footprint of the most energy-intensiveindustrial subsectors [259]

Direct government support for entrepreneurial development of in-novative technologies is a relatively new approach to deriving greaterbenefits from government support The Sustainable DevelopmentTechnology Canada program an early example founded in 2001 It isaccountable to the Canadian government yet operates as an in-dependent foundation tasked to help Canadian entrepreneurs acceleratetheir innovative clean energy technologies Their impact is well docu-mented and includes 91 projects that have created products in themarket delivering over 10 Mt of CO2 emissions reductions [260] An-other example is the US Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy(ARPA-E) first funded in 2009 [261] It focuses on a slightly earlierstage of technology development than SDTC emphasizing high-impactclean energy technologies that are too early and too high-risk for pri-vate sector investment The most successful ARPA-E projects are readyto receive private sector investment after ARPA-E support As of 2018145 ARPA-E-supported projects have in combination raised $29 B inprivate investment to commercialize their technologies [262]

Recently unique partnerships have emerged to address criticaltechnology challenges and reduce GHG emissions through supplychains For example the Elysis partnership has brought together AlcoaRio Tinto the Government of Canada the Government of Quebec andApple to provide a combined $188 million (CAD) to commercializeinert anode technology for aluminum smelting [263] which effectivelyeliminates GHG emissions associated with aluminum production whenzero-GHG electricity is used Additionally philanthropic investmentsare finding creative approaches to address emissions reductions such as

adopting a venture-based investment model with the longer time hor-izons required for successful RDampD and commercialization of industrialtechnologies Examples include the PRIME Coalition [264] and Break-through Energy Ventures [265]

Governments can also encourage corporate research by providingdirect funding or favorable tax treatment of company funds invested inRDampD This tax treatment has been important for many decades in theUS [266] Other more aggressive policies have been proposed in thepast such as accelerated depreciation of capital investments to stimu-late new investment [267]

623 Elements of successful RDampD programs and policiesSuccessful RDampD initiatives must address barriers that hinder in-

vestments by companies or investors including

bull Prior investments may have ldquolocked inrdquo old technologies given highcapital costs for new equipment especially for the large energy-in-tensive industriesbull Long development times for RDampD of next generation industrialtechnologies are commonbull There are technical and market risks associated with attempts toimprove or replace a technology (ie a risk the technology does notwork as well as expected or that changes in the market unrelated tothe technology may nonetheless reduce its economic competitive-ness)bull There is regulatory uncertainty (ie the risk that a policy environ-ment relied upon by industry today in making decisions may bealtered in the future)bull Relatively low energy costs for fossil fuels can cause clean energy orefficiency technologies to require long periods to earn a returnbull Next generation industrial technologies may concurrently requirenew energy infrastructurebull Older technologies benefit from the failure to monetize social andenvironmental externalitiesbull Whole-system design improvements may be overlooked despitetheir large energy-saving potential as they are not a single tech-nology and may be facility- or site-specific

Key elements of success include partnering with companies throughall stages of market development and targeting RDampD to key technicalchallenges faced by industry These public-private partnerships can

Fig 17 Revenue breakdown for the US chemical manufacturing industry (NAICS 324) and the petroleum and coal products manufacturing industries (iepredominantly refining) (NAICS 325) in 2016 [272]


22

drive innovation and lead to more rapid adoption of new developmentsFurther the involvement of trade associations and government in theRDampD process can address governmentrsquos antitrust concerns by ensuringnew technology is available to multiple companies

63 Energy efficiency or emissions standards

Appliance equipment and vehicle standards have proven amongthe most effective policy strategies for energy use reductions [268]both in developed and developing countries In industry electric motorstandards have played a major role reducing electricity consumptionsince motors account for two-thirds of industrial electricity consump-tion [269]

Despite steady improvement in energy efficiency for decades thereis still considerable room for energy efficiency improvement in the in-dustrial sector [7] with many efficiency upgrades coming at low costwith quick (ie less than 2-year) financial paybacks [270271] How-ever years of industrial energy audit data suggest that manufacturersroutinely forgo proven low-cost efficiency improvement opportunitiesFor example an assessment of 15 years of audit data from the IndustrialAssessment Centers (the US Department of Energyrsquos audit program forsmall and medium enterprises) indicates that small plants seized only13 of recommended low-cost energy savings citing unattractive eco-nomics and lack of budget as two of the most common reasons [270]The Save Energy Now program which audited over 600 of the largestindustrial plants in the United States had similar findings annualmonetary and energy savings of all recommendations totaled $858 and114 T btu respectively but less than half of the identified cost andenergy savings were ultimately pursued [271]

One reason for the difficulty in interesting businesses in energy ef-ficiency upgrades is illustrated in Fig 17 which provides revenuebreakdowns for the US chemicals and refining industries Chemicalcompanies have higher profit margins (greater surplus in green) andso are in a better financial position to invest in energy efficiency up-grades However electricity costs (in yellow) and non-feedstockthermal fuel costs (in red) are a small share of total costs for both in-dustries so it may be difficult to convince company management todevote the time and resources to plan and execute energy efficiencyupgrades even if such upgrades offer a short payback period A busi-ness may choose to focus on reducing the largest costsmdashparticularlyinput materials labor and capital equipment spendingmdashto maximizeabsolute financial savings even when energy efficiency upgrades offer abetter percentage return on investment

A more holistic accounting of the productivity environmentalsafety and other improvements associated with energy efficiency mightyield a different investment decision In a pioneering study Worrellet al showed that energy efficiency improvements in the iron and steelindustry would also result in productivity improvements Accountingfor these co-benefits by adding them to energy cost savings woulddouble the amount of energy efficiency improvements that would bedeemed financially attractive [273] Other non-energy benefits asso-ciated with energy efficiency improvements can include [274]

bull revenues from emission reduction credits or demand response pro-gram participation feesbull improved ability to market products to environmentally-consciousbuyersbull qualify to sell products to governments or businesses with greenprocurement policiesbull reduced energy capacity chargesbull reduced requirements for cooling water or other input materialsbull reduced maintenance costsbull reduced waste generation and disposal costsbull reduced capital costs and associated insurance premiumsbull improved workplace health and safetybull reduced exposure to energy price volatility

Comprehensively considering all of the benefits of energy efficiencyimprovements offers a superior means of evaluating the economic valueof these measures and could accelerate their uptake

As businesses will not always adopt efficiency upgrades solely onthe basis of financial return efficiency standards are a crucial tool todrive uptake and accelerate the decarbonization of global industry Inthe past efficiency standards have been very technology-specific butstandards have evolved to become more performance- or objective-or-iented eg the transition from energy-based to GHG intensity-basedstandards in the auto sector Standards have tended to work better withmass-produced products that are used widely with administrativelyfeasible points of policy application usually the point of purchase orinstallation Standards have proven challenging to implement in retrofitapplications because there is typically not a well-identified entity re-sponsible for compliance Generally standards work best at the na-tional level with harmonization internationally through treaties andinternational organizations such as the International StandardsOrganization (ISO)

As component-level standards become increasingly mature thefocus is shifting to system-level standards [275] While a component-level standard might specify allowable energy use by pumps fans orcompressors a system-level standard might specify allowable energyuse by a system that delivers a certain amount of fluid or air to the pointof use System-wide efficiency standards are best-suited to applicationswith certain criteria 1) a well-defined system that delivers a service 2)widespread use of the system in replicable applications 3) the ability todevise a representative and stable performance indicator that works inthe marketplace and 4) a willing collaboration by key industry stake-holders Support from manufacturers and installers is key because theyhave the expertise and data necessary to develop the indicator andassociated market structures [276]

Possible industrial process end-use services to be targeted for GHGintensity might include steam and hot-water systems driers watertreatment systems chilled water systems and cooling towers Highlyintegrated process equipment has not proven a good target for stan-dards because the output is site-specific products not a defined serviceThis approach might be extended to limit energy use or emissions perunit of product produced for certain commodity materials (eg gradesof steel types of cement) [276]

Emissions intensity standards can identify goals and drive techno-logical change Standards may be based on the most efficient productson the market which ensures the standards are able to be achieved bycommercialized products Standards should be routinely updated basedon the newest most efficient products so they do not stagnate andcontinue to drive innovation Japanrsquos ldquoTop Runnerrdquo policies are anexample of this approach [277] Standards can also be used to induceinnovation down a GHG-mitigating path when the technology roadmapis relatively well-known For example the California Air ResourcesBoardrsquos use of zero emissions vehicle standards in the 1990s drove thedesign and adoption of hybrid nickel-hydride-based electric vehiclessuch as the Toyota Prius which eventually led to the lithium-ion-basedfull battery electric vehicle

Performance standards do not internalize a carbon price commen-surate with the abatement they cause (as the added cost of buyingstandard-compliant equipment is often far lower than the social cost ofthe avoided emissions) Also standards impose no price on the residualemissions from standard-compliant equipment These traits increase thepolitical acceptability of performance standards but this comes withthe disadvantage of eroding the incentive to reduce product use orswitch to lower-carbon alternative products that would come fromcarbon pricing Standards and carbon pricing work best in tandem

64 Building codes

Buildings are a necessary component of human wellbeing [278]and their construction is responsible for a significant share of economic


23

activity (eg 8 of GDP in the US) [279] However construction hasnotable environmental impacts over 20 of the worldrsquos energy andprocess-related GHG emissions are from the production of materialsprimarily structural materials [280] such as steel and concrete Routesto reduce emissions from these materials include optimizing their use inconstruction increasing their performance life (thus reducing main-tenance and replacement impacts) and improved material composition[4347]

Policies and design guidelines outline methods to improve build-ingsrsquo energy efficiency as well as encourage the use of materials thathave lower environmental impacts (including reuse of recovered ma-terials) However environmentally-friendly design guidelines maysometimes conflict with one another due to the complexity associatedwith initial design choices and the ability to implement different ret-rofits at different times Todayrsquos guidelines focus on individual com-ponents at single points in time overlooking implications of decisionson subsequent components or on other phases of the building lifecycleFor example energy-efficient buildings may incorporate large masses toprovide thermal inertia and reduce heating or cooling needs but theGHG emissions from producing the required quantity of material canoutweigh GHG abatement from the thermal energy savings especiallyas buildings become increasingly energy efficient [281282] In multi-material buildings or structural components there may be trade-offsbetween the different materials For example while in most cases steelreinforcement in concrete can be reduced while staying within theconfines of acceptable design it could lead to a greater member sizeand thus more concrete usage [68] Further seemingly inconsequentialalterations within the confines of acceptable design such as schedulingone phase of construction before or after another phase can yield largechanges in the quantity of material required and thus the overall en-vironmental impacts [283284] Smart building codes must account forthese complexities

While buildings can last many decades and serve different functionsover their lifespans the materials used within buildingsmdashsuch as car-peting wall panels and roofing materialsmdashcan have significantlyshorter lifespans [285] As a result the selection of long-lived interiorfinishes and roofing materials can decrease environmental impacts

Prefabrication of building systems is another technique to improvebuilding energy performance while reducing construction wastePrefabrication involves producing finished components in a manu-facturing facility then transporting those components to the buildingsite for final assembly This dramatically reduces material waste andon-site construction time Incorporating prefabricated components intoa building design can improve quality and durability which increasesbuilding lifespan In addition stricter quality assurance is achievable ina factory than on a construction site which helps ensure greaterthermal integrity and energy performance

Prefabricated buildings have great waste reduction potential par-ticularly in developing economies For example in 2013 Chinarsquosbuilding materials waste exceeded 1 billion tons [286] Only 5 of thiswaste is recycled [287] Cases of prefabrication in China and elsewherehave shown to increase lifetime by 10ndash15 years while reducing con-struction material loss by 60 and overall building waste by 80[288]

Modernization of guidelines and codes is needed for acceptance ofemerging technologies and materials in the built environment [289]For example with concrete there is some room within current codes toimprove sustainability by reducing cement content often through in-clusion of supplementary cementitious materials [290] In contrastcurrent codes may hamper the use of alternative materials whose long-term behavior is less certain than that of conventional materials[5556] Updated codes combined with targets labelling and eco-nomic incentives for alternative materials could facilitate the in-corporation of these materials into buildings

65 Data disclosure and ESG

Data is central to industrial decarbonization Digital technology istransforming industrial production processes and simultaneouslygenerating a profusion of data that allow plant managers to betterunderstand facilitiesrsquo energy use emissions and opportunities forabatement Meanwhile investor pressure corporate and governmentprocurement requirements and stakeholder expectations of transpar-ency are increasingly driving public disclosure of company data

In its earliest form transparency over environmental performancetook the form of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reporting Thesereports of environmental and social information were typically com-pany-authored and non-verifiable Over time a demand for third-partyverification of CSR data arose along with calls for standardized ap-proaches to measure and report specific information including dec-arbonization As investors started to use this information to rate thelong-term viability of a firm independent organizations emerged toprovide an assessment of companiesrsquo environmental performance ForGHG emissions the main such organization is CDP (formerly theCarbon Disclosure Project) founded in 2000 Over 8400 companiesnow disclose their emissions impacts through CDP which representsover 525 investors with $96 trillion in assets [291] Another alignedeffort the Task Force for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TFCD)was established in 2015 and released final recommendations on vo-luntary disclosure guidelines in 2017 [292] A third program the Sci-ence-Based Targets initiative [293] has enabled 294 global companiesto commit to Paris-aligned (and increasingly 15 degC-aligned) GHG re-duction targets By focusing on disclosure and target-setting theseplatforms are helping to support industrial company GHG mitigationbest practices [294]

Companies and governments are increasingly extending expecta-tions of carbon accounting goal-setting and decarbonization into theirsupply chains Emissions from a firmrsquos supply chain are on average 55times larger than a companyrsquos own carbon footprint [295] ThroughCDPrsquos Supply Chain program 115 organizations with $33 trillion inannual spending (including Walmart Microsoft and the US FederalGovernment) collectively engage over 11500 suppliers in 90 countries[296] In 2018 5500 suppliers reported implementing projects totaling633 million metric tons of CO2e emissions reductions equivalent to thefootprint of South Korea at a collective savings of $193 billion [297]

While these platforms are voluntary governments are also sup-porting industrial decarbonization data through policy mechanismssuch as mandatory disclosure minimum performance standards pro-curement and labeling schemes Francersquos Energy Transition Law Article173 and Chinarsquos requirement that all listed companies report emissionsdata by 2020 are two recent examples of growing policymaker interestin mandating industrial decarbonization data collection and disclosureSince supply chains span national boundaries governments can influ-ence foreign suppliers by requiring large corporate purchasers to reportemissions from their supply chains (ie ldquoscope 3rdquo emissions reportingrequirements) Government policymakers can further support industrialdecarbonization data by providing resources for companies to compileand publish GHG emissions inventories set science-based targets andquantify best practices

66 Labeling of low-carbon products and materials

Decarbonizing the economy involves increasing the market size forlow-carbon products and materials Carbon labeling schemes are oneinstrument that can add value to and grow the market for low-carbonproducts by informing interested purchasers of the reduced carbonimpacts increasing their willingness to pay

For some completed products labels may be aimed at consumerssimilar to existing labeling schemes for energy-efficient applianceslighting windows etc (but disclosing manufacturing-related GHGemissions rather than the energy efficiency of the product) However


24

many of the best GHG abatement opportunities are in low-carbon ma-terials such as cement and steel which are seldom purchased by con-sumers directly In these cases labels would be aimed at companies orgovernments that purchase these materials in large quantities Suchlabels can be useful for public procurement programs that favor greenproducts and for companies seeking to attain environmental social andgovernance (ESG) goals An example is Applersquos voluntary commitmentto zero-carbon aluminum [298] Low-carbon labeling also can serve asadvertising and provides an incentive to industry for greater innova-tion to earn the label for more products at lower cost

A prominent example of low-carbon labeling is a green buildingrating (GBR) A GBR scheme provides a comprehensive assessment ofvarious environmental impacts of buildings and these schemes in-creasingly include assessment of embodied carbon in building mate-rials Akbarnezhad and Xiao [299] reported that the share of a build-ingrsquos carbon impacts represented by embodied carbon spans a largerangemdashvarying from as low as 20 to as high as 80 depending onbuilding type climate zone operational energy efficiency and otherparameters

Two of the greatest challenges of carbon labeling are the variabilityof the accounting methodology and the scarcity of data necessary toasses a productrsquos holistic GHG impacts [300] Calculating carbon em-bodied in materials needs to be based on a transparent and provenmethodology Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is generally the method ofchoice and it has been standardized by the International Organizationfor Standardization Several carbon labeling schemes including theenvironmental product declaration (EPD) follow ISO standards [301]Incomplete adoption of labels and the difficulty of calculating LCAvalues has led to the failure of labeling schemes in the past [302]Adopting labels at the manufacturer level (rather than the retailer orreseller level) can help with these issues

67 Government procurement policies

Numerous technological approaches and process innovations havethe potential to reduce industrial emissions Initially new technologiestend to be more expensive than incumbent technologies since incum-bents benefit from many years of refinement and returns-to-scaleAdditionally incumbents usually are not required to pay the costs ofnegative human health and environmental externalities associated withtheir emissions Therefore it can be difficult for novel low-carbonproducts to compete with traditional products on price

Government has an important role to play in helping to develop andcommercialize new technologies particularly those that offer benefitsto society such as emissions reduction To leave the laboratory andbecome successful products low-carbon alternatives to traditionalproducts need a market If there is insufficient demand producers willhave no incentive to invest in low-carbon technologies and the newtechnologies will not benefit from returns-to-scale

Governments are a major purchaser of industrial goods governmentprocurement accounts for an average of 12 percent of GDP in OECDcountries and up to 30 percent in many developing countries [303]Therefore a government policy to preferentially purchase low-carbonproducts can lead to the creation of a substantial market for theseproducts This policy can help overcome a key barrier in refining andbringing down the costs of new technologies

Examples of government procurement programs for low-carbonproducts include the Buy Clean California Act [304] Japanrsquos Act onPromoting Green Purchasing [305] and Indiarsquos Ujala program for ef-ficient lighting [306] Japanrsquos program went into effect in 2001 and by2013 95 of government-purchased products in covered categoriesmet green purchasing criteria resulting in an annual savings of 210000tons of CO2e [305] As of 2019 Indiarsquos Ujala program achieves annualsavings of 46 TWh of electricity per year reduces peak demand by 9GW and avoids the emissions of 37 billion tons of CO2 per year [306]

68 Recycling incentives or requirements

When products containing recyclable materials reach end-of-lifethe choice of whether to recycle or to send the product to a landfilldepends on the relative costs of landfill disposal versus recycling Forsome materials such as steel and aluminum the intrinsic value of thediscarded materials can be high enough to justify the costs and effort ofrecycling However even these materials are often not recycled Forexample in the US only 33 of steel and 19 of aluminum in mu-nicipal solid waste (MSW) is recycled [307]

There are a number of barriers to higher recycling rates The ma-terials composing some products are difficult to separate making themcostlier to recycle Contamination of recyclable materials with in-appropriate materials can force an entire load to be sent to a landfillldquoApproximately 25 percent of all recycling picked up by WasteManagementrdquo the largest waste handling company in the US ldquoiscontaminated to the point that it is sent to landfillsrdquo [308]

Other issues are economic The price of scrap metal tends to fluc-tuate greatly based on demand for example since homebuilders arelarge consumers of copper the rates offered for scrap copper rise whenmany homes are being built and fall when housing demand is weak[309] Developed countries often export recyclable products to devel-oping countries where workers sort through the discarded metal byhand This can also result in financial unpredictability as when Chinaimposed rules in 2018 limiting the types of materials it would acceptand imposing stringent limits on allowable contamination [308] Thesefactors can make it difficult for cities and waste management companiesto agree on terms for multi-year contracts and can lead to disputeswhen economic conditions change [310]

Although MSW is more visible construction and demolition (CampD)debris is the largest source of solid waste In the US CampD generated548 Mt of debris in 2015 twice as much as MSW [307] Thereforepolicies targeting CampD waste can have an outsized impact on thequantity of material recycled For example jurisdictions can requirecontractors or property owners to ensure CampD debris will be divertedfor reuse or recycling The city of San Francisco has a Construction andDemolition Debris Ordinance that requires all CampD debris materials tobe recycled or reused [311]

Municipalities can incentivize recycling practices by reducing re-cycling costs and increasing landfilling costs For example the city ofAdelaide in Australia has increased its landfill tax every few years toencourage recycling [312] In Europe many countries are increasingprivate sector participation by implementing an extended producerresponsibility (EPR) system In an EPR system the cost of recycling ofmaterials is borne by the producer Either producers pay the munici-pality directly for the cost of recycling or they develop a system wherecitizens return the product at end-of-life EPR systems reduce govern-ment costs divert waste from landfills and encourage manufacturers todesign more recyclable products In addition to covering the costs ofrecycling EPR fees may be used to support RampD programs and wasteprevention outreach activities [313]

Some cities and countries have set ambitious targets to reduce theirwaste significantly This is the case in Wales which aims to achievezero waste by 2050 and in Scotland which has set a target to recycle70 percent of its waste by 2025 [314] Similarly the European Com-mission has set reuserecycling targets of 50 by 2020 rising to 65by 2035 [315] Targets are generally accompanied by a waste man-agement plan that includes specific regulations measures and in-centives For example in 2014 Scotland implemented a ban on anymetal plastic glass paper cardboard and food collected separately forrecycling from going to incineration or landfill and provided a widerange of support packages to help businesses local authorities and thewaste management sector make the necessary transition

At the city level in 2003 San Francisco became one of the firstmajor cities to set a zero-waste goal A 2009 law made separating re-cyclables compost and landfilled trash mandatory By 2012 the city


25

reached a recycling rate of 80 (including compost) the highest rate ofany US city and a much higher rate than the US average of 34[316] However the remaining 20 percent has proven challenging toaddress as it can be difficult to achieve 100 compliance with re-cycling requirements and some products are too difficult to recycle

For hard-to-recycle products a litter fee can be charged and that feecan be invested in a recycling education and investment fund Wherealternative products exist hard-to-recycle products can be banned Forexample San Francisco has prohibited the use of polystyrene foam infood service since 2006 banned plastic bags in drugstores and super-markets in 2007 and banned single-use plastic straws in 2019

Community outreach and financial incentives also encourage wastereduction and recycling In San Francisco households receive a detailedbill for waste management fees so they can better understand theirwaste disposal practices and their financial impact Households pay lessif they shift their waste from mixed waste bins to individual bins de-signated for recycling or composting and if a household switches to asmaller trash bin they receive a lower monthly bill The city also hasimplemented a compliance plan to inspect waste bins regularly andhouseholds that fail these inspections first receive warnings which arelater followed by financial penalties

7 Sociological considerations

71 Equity for labor and disadvantaged communities

Globalization technological innovation and climate change areaccelerating socioeconomic disruption in communities all over theworld Concern about the accessibility of economic opportunity isfueling the rise of populist movements nationalism and partisanship[317318] The availability of high-quality jobs is often a focal point indiscussions about how society is being restructured Technological andpolicy approaches to decarbonize industry must account for humanneeds in order to lessen rather than exacerbate the political and cul-tural forces that are dividing society

Worldwide fossil fuels remain a large and growing source ofemissions but jobs in fossil fuel production are disappearing For ex-ample in the US total employment in natural resources and mining(which includes coal oil and gas) is 700000 about 05 of the totalnonfarm employment This is down from 29 in 1940 (Fig 18)

The workers in declining fossil energy sectors such as coal plantoperators are on the front lines of a broader economic transformationFortunately changes in industries do not necessitate a loss of economicactivity nor a reduction in the number of jobs Studies have found thateconomic transformation toward climate stabilization at 15 degC or 2 degCpathways will result in more jobs than 5 degC pathways [320321] Forexample renewable energy technology development and deploymentoffer more job opportunities than legacy fossil systems However thegains and costs from economic transformation are not evenly dis-tributed To achieve an equitable transformation toward low-carbonindustry policymakers companies and other stakeholders shouldconsider the following three guiding principles

bull Keep people at the center focus on human impacts and commu-nitiesbull Avoid capture by vested interestsbull Where possible opt for policies that promote win-win green growthsolutions Where this is not possible (eg coal mining) establishsupport programs for detrimentally-affected communitiesbull Utilize a mix of supply-side interventions (new energy technologiesetc) and demand-side interventions (material efficiency etc) Inthe short term supply-side interventions may increase capitalspending and (hence) employment while reducing demand for in-dustrial products and materials may cause job disruptionsBalancing the two types of policy may help to maintain a stable andgrowing job market avoiding a boom-and-bust cycle

These principles will require policymakers to shape decarbonizationpolicies to provide adequate timeframes for industrial transition andinclude workers and community representatives at all stages of thepolicy development and implementation process A just transition willalso require a better understanding of how social safety nets such asunemployment insurance and government-supported training pro-grams should be utilized where they fall short and how they can beimproved The transition to green industry will be an iterative processbut it must be accelerated to address our growing list of social eco-nomic and environmental challenges

72 A low-carbon development pathway for developing nations

The 2015 Paris Agreement recognizes that the challenge of cuttingemissions is particularly acute for developing nations which mustidentify creative ways to lower their carbon emissions even as theygrow their economies and their people demand more services

The highest-emitting developing countries are China and India re-sponsible for 24 and 7 of 2014 global GHG emissions respectively[21] and Indiarsquos emissions are forecast to nearly quadruple by 2050largely due to growth in the industrial sector [322] Chinarsquos ParisAgreement pledges are focused on committing to a year of peak CO2

emissions and a minimum share of non-fossil energy within Chinarsquosenergy mix Indias pledges emphasize the emissions intensity of Indiarsquoseconomy efficiency enhancement and fuel switching rather than ab-solute emission reductions

Both technology deployment and policy implementation have cru-cial roles to play in a low-carbon development pathway In recent yearsIndia and China have implemented innovative policies that reduce theenergy intensity of industry helping their manufacturing sectors tobegin catching up with the best commercially-available technologies[323ndash325] Indiarsquos history of energy conservation efforts dates back tothe Energy Conservation Act of 2001 [326] In 2008 India announcedthe Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT) policy a system of mandatedfossil energy intensity targets based on tradable certificates [327]which has brought about substantial declines in industrial energy use[325] Interviews with Indian cement paper and steel plants revealedthat managers are interested in ways to improve climate and environ-mental performance beyond energy efficiency if those measures en-hance their economic competitiveness [323]

Two notable Chinese policies that have reduced energy consump-tion while promoting sustainable development are the Top-1000 andTop-10000 Energy-Intensive Enterprises Programs The Top-1000Program was initiated in 2006 This program required the largest 1000

Fig 18 US employment in natural resources and mining as a share of totalnonfarm employment has dropped from a high of 29 in 1940 to 05 today[319]


26

energy-consuming industrial enterprises to implement energy-savingmeasures with a target of saving 100 million tons of coal equivalent(Mtce) over five years The program also implemented measures such ascarrying out energy audits conducting energy efficiency bench-marking improving energy management and promoting energy-savingtechnical retrofits As a result the program saved a total of 150 Mtceduring 2006ndash2010 [328] and reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 400million tons [329] The Economist called the Top-1000 Program ldquoar-guably the most important climate policy in the worldrdquo [330]

China built on the Top-1000 program by launching the ldquoTop-10000Energy Efficiency and Low Carbon Action Programrdquo in 2011 TheProgram targeted over 10000 enterprises in the industry and trans-portation sectors that consume more than 10000 tons of coal equiva-lent (tce) of primary energy annually as well as businesses hotels andschools that consume more than 5000 tce The Top-10000 Programcontinued the measures implemented in the Top-1000 Program andemphasized establishing energy management systems based on a na-tional standard conducting energy-efficiency retrofits (especially fo-cusing on waste heat and waste pressure utilization motor energy ef-ficiency coal-fired boiler retrofits and high-efficiency heatexchangers) and promoting energy service companies By 2014 theprogram had saved 309 Mtce exceeding its original target of 250 Mtce[331]

China and India are not alone many countries are developing ra-pidly Collectively Sub-Saharan Africa had a GDP in 2018 (adjusted forpurchasing power parity PPP) roughly equal to that of China in 1998Two other large countries Brazil and Indonesia are as productive asChina was in 1995ndash1996 (Fig 19) It is urgent that technical and policyinnovations be rolled out as broadly as possible to ensure no country isleft behind in the global transition to clean industry

China and India illustrate that effective policy to encourage emis-sions reduction from industry is compatible with development goalsHowever deep decarbonization of industry in developing countries hasmany inter-dependencies Success hinges on decarbonizing the powersector ensuring policies have sector-wide coverage and full participa-tion and providing for new fuels (such as hydrogen) or carbon captureand sequestration for difficult-to-decarbonize industries such as cementand steel In many cases international collaboration on RampD will benecessary Great potential for cost-saving efficiency improvement re-mains particularly at the system level Additionally reducing demand

for industrial materials without compromising development goals orstandards of living will play an important role in limiting emissionsusing approaches such as material efficiency and product longevitydescribed in Section 5

8 Conclusion

Fully decarbonizing the global industry sector is a central part ofachieving climate stabilization and reaching net zero emissions by2050ndash2070 is necessary to remain on-track with the Paris Agreementrsquosgoal of limiting warming to well below 2 degC Technologies will likely bedeployed in waves with demand-side interventions and already-com-mercialized efficiency technologies dominating through 2035 struc-tural shifts becoming more pronounced in 2031ndash2050 and nascenttechnologies such as hydrogen becoming important thereafter Thegroundwork for each of these phases must be laid in prior phasesthrough investments in research and development pilot projects andinfrastructure

Achieving net zero industrial emissions will require an ensemble ofdifferent interventions both on the supply side and on the demand sideKey supply-side technologies will be various energy efficiency mea-sures carbon capture electrification in certain industries and the useof zero-carbon hydrogen as a heat source and chemical feedstock Thereare also promising technologies specific to each of the three top-emit-ting industries cement iron amp steel and chemicals amp plastics Theseinclude cement admixtures and alternative chemistries several tech-nological routes for zero-carbon steelmaking and novel catalysts andchemical separation technologies Crucial demand-side approaches in-clude measures to deliver equivalent services with less material usereductions in material waste (eg from additive manufacturing andautomation) substituting low-carbon for high-carbon materials andcircular economy interventions (such as improving product longevityreusability ease of refurbishment and recyclability) Even with cutting-edge low-carbon technologies it will not be possible to meet the needsof developing and urbanizing countries without employing measures toreduce material demand while delivering equivalent or better services

Though the costs of low-carbon technologies will come down withadditional research and scale these cost reductions alone will not besufficient to decarbonize the global industry sector Strategic well-de-signed policy is required High-value policies include carbon pricing

Fig 19 GDP (adjusted for purchasing power parity PPP) for China India Sub-Saharan Africa Brazil and Indonesia from 1990 to 2018 [14]


27

with border adjustments providing robust government support for re-search development and deployment (RDampD) and energy efficiency oremissions standards on various products or processes (includingtradeable emissions intensity standards and building codes that regulatethe materials longevity and energy performance of buildings) Thesecore policies should be supported by labeling and government pro-curement of low-carbon products data collection and disclosure re-quirements and recycling incentives Certain policies particularlydisclosure requirements and emissions targets can apply to industriesrsquosupply chains thereby helping to decarbonize supplier industries incountries that may not have yet implemented meaningful industrialdecarbonization policies of their own

In implementing these policies care must be taken to ensure a justtransition for displaced workers and affected communities seeking win-win solutions that help these communities play a valued role in theemerging decarbonized economy Similarly decarbonization actionsmust not hamper the development of low- and middle-income coun-tries Instead these efforts must be spearheaded by the developingcountries themselves with declining technology costs and smart policyallowing them to leapfrog dirty technologies and follow a low-carbonpathway to prosperity

Though the industry sector is large and heterogeneous the goal ofdecarbonizing global industrial production this century is achievable Aset of known technology and policy options offers a roadmap out to2070 and more opportunities will present themselves as low-emissionsindustrial technologies become cheaper and more widespreadPolicymakers and corporate decision-makers each have a part to play inembracing the transition to clean industry and hastening a sustainableprosperous future

Funding

This work stems from a November 2018 meeting convened by theAspen Global Change Institute with support from the William and FloraHewlett Foundation

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financialinterests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-ence the work reported in this paper

Appendix A Workshop background

Identifying the most promising technologies and politically-implementable effective policies to decarbonize the industry sector requires cross-disciplinary expertise To map a way forward the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) and three co-chairs assembled a group of 28 experts invarious industries policy design and sociological considerations of equity and global development A week-long workshop was held in AspenColorado in November 2018 The workshop included presentations by every expert discussions break-out groups and an end-of-workshop survey

Workshop proposal and funding Since 1989 AGCI has convened workshops on understanding global environmental change including keyconsequences and solutions In 2017 Jeffrey Rissman (Industry Program Director at Energy Innovation LLC) proposed to AGCI a workshop ondecarbonizing the industry sector The workshop proposal was accepted by AGCIrsquos board in December 2017 Rissman and AGCI secured funding forthe workshop from the Hewlett Foundation in early 2018

Co-chairs and invitees Two other industry sector experts accepted offers to serve as co-chairs Nan Zhou (Head of the International EnergyAnalysis Department at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) and Jens Dinkel (VP of Corporate Strategy ndash Sustainability Management atSiemens) Together the co-chairs used research and their networks to build a list of 120 experts from around the world covering all major areas ofexpertise needed to plan a route to global industrial decarbonization 82 of these experts received invitations to the workshop 25 invitees and thethree co-chairs attended the workshop in November 2018 for a total of 28 experts The countries represented were Australia Canada ChinaGermany India Norway the United Kingdom and the United States

Workshop content Each expert prepared a 20-minute presentation on hisher area of expertise Presentation topics were carefully distributed toachieve broad coverage of the major industries technological approaches policies research and sociologicaldevelopment considerations A groupdiscussion was held after every block of 2ndash4 related presentations Once all presentations were complete an afternoon was spent on break-out groupdiscussions focusing on major topics and challenges identified during the workshop The last day included group planning of an outline for thispaper

Survey In order to gather quantitative data to complement the insights shared by the experts during the workshop a survey was conducted onthe last day 27 of the 28 experts completed the survey The survey asked respondents to supply up to five answers to each of three questionsregarding the most important technologies policies and future research directions to bring about the decarbonization of the industry sector Surveyswere tabulated to identify the most frequently-occurring responses Survey results along with group discussion helped inform the topical coverageof this paper The full survey results appear below

Co-Authorship This paper was jointly written and reviewed by all workshop participants

Survey results

In order to gather quantitative data to complement the insights shared by the experts during the workshop a survey was conducted on the lastday 27 of the 28 experts completed the survey The survey asked respondents to supply up to five answers to each of the following three questionsTabulated results appear below There are fewer than 135 (27 5) responses for each question because not every expert provided 5 answers for eachquestion

What are the most important technologies or manufacturing processes that should be pursued in the next 5 years in order to efficientlyreduce GHG emissions from the industry sector

Technology or process Responses

CCS BECCS CO2 transport (from exhaust streams not direct air capture) 17Hydrogen production transport storage use 16Change cement chemistry clinker substitution CO2-curing 11Electrification 10


28

Energy efficiency for equipment (motors etc) or system-wide 9Low-carbon high-quality steel production 8Reduced material use lightweighting 5Substituting low-carbon materials for high-carbon materials 5Recycling re-use circular economy 4Improved chemical processes catalysts bio-plastics 4Waste heat recovery heat pumps heat exchangers 4Use of renewable energy 3Substitute natural gas or biomass for coal 3Additive manufacturing 3D printing prefab construction 3Reduce methane leakage 2IT improvements data connectivity tracking embedded carbon 2Low-carbon pulp paper 1Replace compressed air with other technologies 1Low-carbon glass production 1Fuel cells 1Ammonia production 1Metal alloys for use in high-temperature processes 1

TOTAL 112What are the most important policies that should be enacted by lawmakers or regulators in the next 5 years in order to bring about thedecarbonization of the industry sector

Policy Responses

Carbon pricing cap and trade border adjustments 19RampD financing RampD tax credits research partnerships 13Energy efficiency standards per unit product or on componentsprocesses 10Government procurement of low-carbon materials and products 9Financial incentives for use or production of low-carbon materials 6Building codes for longevity low-carbon materials material efficiency 5Subsidy for use of alternative fuels renewable energy net metering 5Data collection and disclosure requirements including supply chain 4Labeling of low-carbon products materials buildings 4Financial incentives to upgrade inefficient equipment financing 4Emissions standards for building materials products 3Require or incent companies to have emissions targets net-zero transition plans 3CCS mandates or incentives 3Financial incentives for recyling use of recycled materials 3Education awareness of low-carbon strategies for companies or workforces 3Worker retraining just transition policies helping impacted communities 3Decarbonize the electric grid incentives for renewables or nuclear 3Methane leakage standards monitoring requirements 2Policies to prevent offshoring and emissions leakage 2Clean development aid to developing countries 2Public education campaigns raising consumer awareness 2Build out CO2 transport infrastructure 1An award publicity for low-carbon product design 1Time-of-use electricity price signals 1Subsidy for low-GHG ammonia production 1Requirement for land use GHG sinks 1

TOTAL 113What are the most important research topics that should be pursued to ensure the technologies we will need are available (6 or more yearsfrom now)

Research Topic Responses

Low-carbon cement and steel or suitable replacement materials 18Hydrogen production transport storage use 15Best policy implementation approaches market barriers demonstration projects 12Public reaction social acceptance just transition identifying suitable countries 8CCS 6Electrification 6Zero-carbon chemical production reduction in chemical feedstocks low-C feedstocks 6Recycling recycled material use circular economy 5Biomass availability and use 4Market impact of industry decarbonization addressing stranded assets 4Improvements to computer models more use of modeling 4Additive manufacturing 3D printing 3Full LCA of various technical options quantifying embedded carbon 3Renewable electricity generation 2Material use reduction lightweighting 2Locating industrial facilities to maximize synergies reduce greenfield development 2Petroleum-free plastics 1Electricity storage 1Impacts of mining availability of rare earth minerals 1Low-carbon food production reduction of food waste 1Blockchain to track commodities 1How urban design can change demand for building materials 1


29

Ammonia production 1Improved electrodes 1Photonic materials for catalysis heat management computation etc 1Industrial purification or separation technologies 1Artificial intelligence automation 1

TOTAL 111

Appendix B Supplementary material

An infographic accompanying this article can be found online at httpsdoiorg101016japenergy2020114848

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Greenhouse Gas Control 201540378ndash400 httpsdoiorg101016jijggc201505018

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[117] Pivnenko K Eriksen MK Martiacuten-Fernaacutendez JA Eriksson E Astrup TF Recycling ofplastic waste presence of phthalates in plastics from households and industryWaste Manage 20165444ndash52 httpsdoiorg101016jwasman201605014

[118] Caballero BM de Marco I Adrados A Loacutepez-Urionabarrenechea A Solar JGastelu N Possibilities and limits of pyrolysis for recycling plastic rich wastestreams rejected from phones recycling plants Waste Manage 201657226ndash34httpsdoiorg101016jwasman201601002

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[128] Ritter SK Putting distillation out of business in the chemical industry Chem EngNews 20179518ndash21

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geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation Nat Commun201892201 httpsdoiorg101038s41467-018-04423-1

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[133] European Environment Agency Carbon capture and storage could also impact airpollution European Environment Agency 2011 httpswwweeaeuropaeuhighlightscarbon-capture-and-storage-could [accessed March 5 2020]

[134] Lelieveld J Klingmuumlller K Pozzer A Poumlschl U Fnais M Daiber A et alCardiovascular disease burden from ambient air pollution in Europe reassessedusing novel hazard ratio functions Eur Heart J 2019401590ndash6 httpsdoiorg101093eurheartjehz135

[135] Keith DW Holmes G St Angelo D Heidel K A process for capturing CO2 from theatmosphere Joule 201821573ndash94 httpsdoiorg101016jjoule201805006

[136] National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine Negative emissionstechnologies and reliable sequestration a research Agenda Washington DCNational Academies Press 2018 101722625259


31

[137] US Department of Energy Archer Daniels Midland Company EnergyGov 2017httpswwwenergygovfearcher-daniels-midland-company [accessed February15 2019]

[138] Global CCS Institute CCS facilities database 2019[139] Briggs T Will the RAB model last Infrastructure investor 2019[140] Lechtenboumlhmer S Nilsson LJ Åhman M Schneider C Decarbonising the energy

intensive basic materials industry through electrification ndash implications for futureEU electricity demand Energy 20161151623ndash31 httpsdoiorg101016jenergy201607110

[141] Service RF Ammoniamdasha renewable fuel made from sun air and watermdashcouldpower the globe without carbon Science 2018

[142] Gorre J Ortloff F van Leeuwen C Production costs for synthetic methane in 2030and 2050 of an optimized Power-to-Gas plant with intermediate hydrogen storageAppl Energy 2019253113594httpsdoiorg101016japenergy2019113594

[143] Leeson D Mac Dowell N Shah N Petit C Fennell PS A Techno-economic analysisand systematic review of carbon capture and storage (CCS) applied to the iron andsteel cement oil refining and pulp and paper industries as well as other highpurity sources Int J Greenhouse Gas Control 20176171ndash84 httpsdoiorg101016jijggc201703020

[144] Abbas HF Wan Daud WMA Hydrogen production by methane decomposition areview Int J Hydrogen Energy 2010351160ndash90 httpsdoiorg101016jijhydene200911036

[145] Ashik UPM Wan Daud WMA Abbas HF Production of greenhouse gas free hy-drogen by thermocatalytic decomposition of methane ndash a review Renew SustainEnergy Rev 201544221ndash56 httpsdoiorg101016jrser201412025

[146] Dagle RA Dagle V Bearden MD Holladay JD Krause TR Ahmed S An overviewof natural gas conversion technologies for co-production of hydrogen and value-added solid carbon products Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL) RichlandWA (United States) Argonne National Lab (ANL) Argonne IL (United States)2017 1021721411934

[147] Deng X Wang H Huang H Ouyang M Hydrogen flow chart in China Int JHydrogen Energy 2010356475ndash81 httpsdoiorg101016jijhydene201003051

[148] Verheul B Overview of hydrogen and fuel cell developments in China HollandInnovation Network China 2019

[149] Young JL Steiner MA Doumlscher H France RM Turner JA Deutsch TG Direct solar-to-hydrogen conversion via inverted metamorphic multi-junction semiconductorarchitectures Nat Energy 2017217028 httpsdoiorg101038nenergy201728

[150] Sokol KP Robinson WE Warnan J Kornienko N Nowaczyk MM Ruff A et alBias-free photoelectrochemical water splitting with photosystem II on a dye-sen-sitized photoanode wired to hydrogenase Nat Energy 20183944 httpsdoiorg101038s41560-018-0232-y

[151] Stoppel L Fehling T Sler TG Baake E Wetzel T Carbon dioxide free production ofhydrogen IOP Conf Ser Mater Sci Eng 2017228012016 1010881757-899X2281012016

[152] Bartels JR Pate MB Olson NK An economic survey of hydrogen production fromconventional and alternative energy sources Int J Hydrogen Energy2010358371ndash84 httpsdoiorg101016jijhydene201004035

[153] Nikolaidis P Poullikkas A A comparative overview of hydrogen production pro-cesses Renew Sustain Energy Rev 201767597ndash611 httpsdoiorg101016jrser201609044

[154] Zhou L Progress and problems in hydrogen storage methods Renew SustainEnergy Rev 20059395ndash408 httpsdoiorg101016jrser200405005

[155] Zheng J Liu X Xu P Liu P Zhao Y Yang J Development of high pressure gaseoushydrogen storage technologies Int J Hydrogen Energy 2012371048ndash57 httpsdoiorg101016jijhydene201102125

[156] Dodds PE Demoullin S Conversion of the UK gas system to transport hydrogenInt J Hydrogen Energy 2013387189ndash200 httpsdoiorg101016jijhydene201303070

[157] Melaina MW Antonia O Penev M Blending hydrogen into natural gas pipelinenetworks a review of key issues Golden CO National Renewable EnergyLaboratory 2013

[158] Philibert C Producing ammonia and fertilizers new opportunities from renew-ables 2017

[159] Shinnar R The hydrogen economy fuel cells and electric cars Technol Soc200325455ndash76 httpsdoiorg101016jtechsoc200309024

[160] Lovins A Twenty hydrogen myths 2005[161] Marbaacuten G Valdeacutes-Soliacutes T Towards the hydrogen economy Int J Hydrogen Energy

2007321625ndash37 httpsdoiorg101016jijhydene200612017[162] Lazard Lazardrsquos levelized cost of energy analysis - version 120 2018[163] Bataille C Stiebert S Detailed technical and policy analysis and recommendations

for the iron amp steel chemicals forestry products amp packaging and base metalmining amp processing sectors Phase II Canadian Heavy Industry DeepDecarbonization Project 2018

[164] Lechtenboumlhmer S Schneider C Yetano Roche M Houmlller S Re-industrialisation andlow-carbon economymdashcan they go together Results from Stakeholder-BasedScenarios for Energy-Intensive Industries in the German State of North RhineWestphalia Energies 2015811404ndash29 httpsdoiorg103390en81011404

[165] Lena ED Spinelli M Romano MC CO2 capture in cement plants by ldquoTail-Endrdquocalcium looping process Energy Proc 2018148186ndash93 httpsdoiorg101016jegypro201808049

[166] Bahzad H Boot-Handford ME Mac Dowell N Shah N Fennell PS Iron-basedchemical-looping technology for decarbonising iron and steel production 2018

[167] International Energy Agency World energy statistics 2018 Paris France 2018[168] US Energy Information Administration Manufacturing energy consumption

survey 2014[169] Leonelli C Mason TJ Microwave and ultrasonic processing now a realistic option

for industry Chem Eng Process Process Intensif 201049885ndash900 httpsdoiorg101016jcep201005006

[170] US Department of Energy Innovating clean energy technologies in advancedmanufacturing Quadrennial Technology Review 2015 Washington DC 2015 p184ndash225

[171] Mai T Jadun P Logan J McMillan C Muratori M Steinberg D et alElectrification futures study scenarios of electric technology adoption and powerconsumption for the United States Golden CO National Renewable EnergyLaboratory 2018

[172] US Department of Energy Small business innovation research (SBIR) and Smallbusiness technology transfer (STTR) program Washington DC 2017

[173] Shen F Zhao L Du W Zhong W Qian F Large-scale industrial energy systemsoptimization under uncertainty a data-driven robust optimization approach ApplEnergy 2020259114199httpsdoiorg101016japenergy2019114199

[174] Morrow W Marano J Sathaye J Hasanbeigi A Xu T Assessment of energy effi-ciency improvement in the United States petroleum refining industry BerkeleyCA Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2013

[175] Hills T Gambhir A Fennell PS The suitability of different types of industry forinter-site heat integration 2014

[176] US Department of Energy Innovating clean energy technologies in advancedmanufacturing Quadrennial Technology Review 2015 Washington DC 2015p 90

[177] Lovins AB How big is the energy efficiency resource Environ Res Lett201813090401httpsdoiorg1010881748-9326aad965

[178] Worrell E Angelini T Masanet E Managing your energy an ENERGY STARreg guidefor identifying energy savings in manufacturing plants Berkeley CA LawrenceBerkeley National Laboratory 2010

[179] Wright A Martin M Nimbalkar S Results from the US DOE 2008 save energynow assessment initiative Oak Ridge TN Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2010

[180] US DOE Advanced Manufacturing Office Improving steam system performancea sourcebook for industry 2nd ed Washington DC 2012

[181] Miura Co Energy saving by multiple installation system of high-efficiency smallonce-through boilers and energy management system 2019

[182] Masanet E Walker ME Energy-water efficiency and US industrial steam AIChE J2013592268ndash74 httpsdoiorg101002aic14148

[183] Doe US Industrial technologies program Combustion Success Story First SuperBoiler Field Demonstration 2008

[184] Buumlhler F Zuumlhlsdorf B Nguyen T-V Elmegaard B A comparative assessment ofelectrification strategies for industrial sites case of milk powder production ApplEnergy 20192501383ndash401 httpsdoiorg101016japenergy201905071

[185] Emerson Kraft Foods relies on industrial heat pump for sustainable operations2012

[186] International Energy Agency Application of industrial heat pumps Paris France2014

[187] Zhang J Zhang H-H He Y-L Tao W-Q A comprehensive review on advances andapplications of industrial heat pumps based on the practices in China Appl Energy2016178800ndash25 httpsdoiorg101016japenergy201606049

[188] Galitsky C Worrell E Energy efficiency improvement and cost saving opportu-nities for the vehicle assembly industry Berkeley CA Lawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory 2008

[189] Russell C Young R Understanding industrial investment decisions Am CouncilEnergy-Efficient Econ 2012

[190] Nadel S Elliott RN Shepard M Greenberg S Katz G de Almeida AT Energy-efficient motor systems a handbook on technology program and policy oppor-tunities 2nd ed American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 2002

[191] Russell C Young R Features and performance of energy management programsAmerican Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 2019

[192] Rogers EA Wickes G Creating a new marketplace for efficiency programs tosource and list rebates for application-dependent energy-efficient productsAmerican Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 2018 p 11

[193] Chapas RB Colwell JA Industrial technologies program research plan for energy-intensive process industries Richland WA Pacific Northwest NationalLaboratory 2007

[194] Aden N Qin Y Fridley D Lifecycle assessment of Beijing-area building energy useand emissions Berkeley CA Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 2010

[195] Hertwich EG Ali S Ciacci L Fishman T Heeren N Masanet E et al Materialefficiency strategies to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with build-ings vehicles and electronicsmdasha review Environ Res Lett 201914043004httpsdoiorg1010881748-9326ab0fe3

[196] Xi F Davis SJ Ciais P Crawford-Brown D Guan D Pade C et al Substantial globalcarbon uptake by cement carbonation Nat Geosci 20169880 httpsdoiorg101038ngeo2840

[197] Cao Z Shen L Loslashvik AN Muumlller DB Liu G Elaborating the history of our ce-menting societies an in-use stock perspective Environ Sci Technol20175111468ndash75 httpsdoiorg101021acsest7b03077

[198] OrsquoConnor J Survey on actual service lives for North American buildings NV LasVegas 2004

[199] Shepard W ldquoHalf the houses will be demolished within 20 yearsrdquo on the dis-posable cities of China CityMetric 2015

[200] US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National transportation statisticsWashington DC 2018

[201] Fremstad A Underwood A Zahran S The environmental impact of sharinghousehold and urban economies in CO2 emissions Ecol Econ 2018145137ndash47httpsdoiorg101016jecolecon201708024

[202] Skjelvik JM Erlandsen AM Haavardsholm O Environmental impacts and poten-tial of the sharing economy Copenhagen Denmark Nordic Council of Ministers2017

[203] Lovins A Rocky mountain institute Reinventing fire 1st ed White River JunctionVT Chelsea Green Publishing 2011

[204] Kelly JC Sullivan JL Burnham A Elgowainy A Impacts of vehicle weight re-duction via material substitution on life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions EnvironSci Technol 20154912535ndash42 httpsdoiorg101021acsest5b03192


32

[205] Kim HC Wallington TJ Life-cycle energy and greenhouse gas emission benefits oflightweighting in automobiles review and harmonization Environ Sci Technol2013476089ndash97 httpsdoiorg101021es3042115

[206] Elgowainy A Han J Ward J Joseck F Gohlke D Lindauer A et al Cradle to gravelifecycle analysis of US light duty vehicle-fuel pathways a greenhouse gasemissions and economic assessment of current (2015) and Future (2025ndash2030)Technologies Lemont IL Argonne National Laboratory 2016

[207] Marr B What everyone must know about industry 40 Forbes 2016 httpswwwforbescomsitesbernardmarr20160620what-everyone-must-know-about-industry-4-0 [accessed February 26 2019]

[208] Hartmann B King WP Narayanan S Digital manufacturing the revolution will bevirtualized 2015 httpswwwmckinseycombusiness-functionsoperationsour-insightsdigital-manufacturing-the-revolution-will-be-virtualized [accessedFebruary 26 2019]

[209] Cotteleer M Joyce J 3D opportunity additive manufacturing paths to perfor-mance innovation and growth Deloitte Insights 2014 httpswww2deloittecominsightsusendeloitte-reviewissue-14dr14-3d-opportunityhtml [ac-cessed February 26 2019]

[210] Huang RA Multi-scale life cycle framework for the net impact assessment of ad-ditive manufacturing in the United States Northwestern University 2016

[211] Wohlers Associates Wohlers associates publishes 23rd edition of its 3D printingand additive manufacturing industry report 2018 httpswohlersassociatescompress74html [accessed February 26 2019]

[212] Wohlers Associates 3D printing and additive manufacturing industry expected toquadruple in size in four years 2014 httpwwwwohlersassociatescompress65html [accessed February 26 2019]

[213] Huang R Ulu E Kara LB Whitefoot KS Cost minimization in metal additivemanufacturing using concurrent structure and process optimization CleavelandOH American Society of Mechanical Engineers 2017 p V02AT03A030 101115DETC2017-67836

[214] Huang R Riddle ME Graziano D Das S Nimbalkar S Cresko J et alEnvironmental and economic implications of distributed additive manufacturingthe case of injection mold tooling J Ind Ecol 201721S130ndash43 httpsdoiorg101111jiec12641

[215] Griffiths LHP launches Metal Jet 3D printing technology and production serviceTCT Mag 2018

[216] Kellner T The blade runners this factory is 3D printing turbine parts for theworldrsquos largest jet engine GE reports 2018 httpswwwgecomreportsfuture-manufacturing-take-look-inside-factory-3d-printing-jet-engine-parts [accessedFebruary 26 2019]

[217] Lazarov BS Sigmund O Meyer KE Alexandersen J Experimental validation ofadditively manufactured optimized shapes for passive cooling Appl Energy2018226330ndash9 httpsdoiorg101016japenergy201805106

[218] Airbus Innovative 3D printing solutions are ldquotaking shaperdquo within Airbus Airbus2016 httpswwwairbuscomnewsroomnewsen201604innovative-3d-printing-solutions-are-taking-shape-within-airbushtml [accessed February 262019]

[219] Huang R Riddle M Graziano D Warren J Das S Nimbalkar S et al Energy andemissions saving potential of additive manufacturing the case of lightweightaircraft components J Clean Prod 20161351559ndash70 httpsdoiorg101016jjclepro201504109

[220] Tollefson J The wooden skyscrapers that could help to cool the planet NatureNews 2017545280 httpsdoiorg101038545280a

[221] The Local Construction begins on worldrsquos tallest wooden skyscraper 2016httpswwwthelocalat20161012construction-begins-on-worlds-tallest-wooden-skyscraper [accessed February 6 2019]

[222] Ingalls J The worldrsquos tallest wooden tower is being built in Norway Archinect2017 httpsarchinectcomnewsarticle150025665the-world-s-tallest-wooden-tower-is-being-built-in-norway [accessed February 6 2019]

[223] Korody N Worldrsquos tallest wood building constructed in Vancouver Archinect2016 httpsarchinectcomnewsarticle149968916world-s-tallest-wood-building-constructed-in-vancouver [accessed February 6 2019]

[224] Pittau F Lumia G Heeren N Iannaccone G Habert G Retrofit as a carbon sink thecarbon storage potentials of the EU housing stock J Clean Prod 2019214365ndash76httpsdoiorg101016jjclepro201812304

[225] Suter F Steubing B Hellweg S Life cycle impacts and benefits of wood along thevalue chain the case of Switzerland J Ind Ecol 201721874ndash86 httpsdoiorg101111jiec12486

[226] Ruumlter S Werner F ClimWood2030 climate benefits of material substitution byforest biomass and harvested wood products Braunschweig Thuumlnen-InstitutBundesforschungsinstitut fuumlr Laumlndliche Raumlume Wald und Fischerei 2016

[227] Heeren N Mutel CL Steubing B Ostermeyer Y Wallbaum H Hellweg SEnvironmental impact of buildingsmdashwhat matters Environ Sci Technol2015499832ndash41 httpsdoiorg101021acsest5b01735

[228] Oliver CD Nassar NT Lippke BR McCarter JB Carbon fossil fuel and biodi-versity mitigation with wood and forests J Sustain For 201433248ndash75 httpsdoiorg101080105498112013839386

[229] Scrivener KL John VM Gartner EM Eco-efficient cements potential economicallyviable solutions for a low-CO2 cement-based materials industry Paris France UNEnvironment Program 2017

[230] Ellen MacArthur Foundation Towards a circular economy business ratonale foran accelerated transition 2015

[231] Cooper SJG Giesekam J Hammond GP Norman JB Owen A Rogers JG et alThermodynamic insights and assessment of the lsquocircular economyrsquo J Clean Prod20171621356ndash67 httpsdoiorg101016jjclepro201706169

[232] Material Economics The circular economy - a powerful force for climate mitiga-tion Stockholm Sweden 2018

[233] ARPA-E Energy Research Company (METALS) 2018 httpsarpa-eenergygovq=impact-sheetenergy-research-company-metals [accessed April 25 2019]

[234] Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries Scrap specifications circular 2018

[235] Daehn KE Cabrera Serrenho A Allwood JM How will copper contaminationconstrain future global steel recycling Environ Sci Technol 2017516599ndash606httpsdoiorg101021acsest7b00997

[236] Sekhri P Harvesting the plastic we have sowed costs and challenges in and anovel application of blockchain for implementing extended producer responsi-bility in Chile Thesis Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2018

[237] ConXtech ConX System 2018 httpwwwconxtechcomconx-system [ac-cessed February 12 2019]

[238] OECD Extended producer responsibility a guidance manual for governments2001

[239] World Bank China circular economy promotion law 2017 httpspppworldbankorgpublic-private-partnershiplibrarychina-circular-economy-promotion-law [accessed March 8 2019]

[240] European Commission Closing the loop commission adopts ambitious newCircular Economy Package to boost competitiveness create jobs and generatesustainable growth 2015 httpeuropaeurapidpress-release_IP-15-6203_enhtm [accessed March 8 2019]

[241] Goulder LH Parry IWH Williams III RC Burtraw D The cost-effectiveness of al-ternative instruments for environmental protection in a second-best setting JPublic Econ 199972329ndash60 httpsdoiorg101016S0047-2727(98)00109-1

[242] Spulber DF Effluent regulation and long-run optimality J Environ Econ Manage198512103ndash16 httpsdoiorg1010160095-0696(85)90021-X

[243] Bataille C Åhman M Neuhoff K Nilsson LJLJ Fischedick M Lechtenboumlhmer Set al A review of technology and policy deep decarbonization pathway options formaking energy intensive industry production consistent with the Paris AgreementJ Clean Prod 2018187960ndash73 httpsdoiorg101016jjclepro201803107

[244] Harvey H Orvis R Rissman J Designing climate solutions a policy guide for low-carbon energy 1st ed Washington DC Island Press 2018

[245] Fowlie M Reguant M Challenges in the measurement of leakage risk AEA PapersProc 2018108124ndash9 httpsdoiorg101257pandp20181087

[246] Branger F Quirion P Chevallier J Carbon leakage and competitiveness of cementand steel industries under the EU ETS much ado about nothing EJ 201737httpsdoiorg10554701956574373fbra

[247] Carbon Trust Climate Strategies Tackling carbon leakage sector-specific solu-tions for a world of unequal carbon prices 2010

[248] Fowlie M Reguant M Ryan SP Market-based emissions regulation and industrydynamics J Polit Econ 2016124249ndash302 httpsdoiorg101086684484

[249] Ho M Morgenstern R Shih J-S Impact of carbon price policies on US IndustryResourc Future 2008

[250] Neuhoff K Chiappinelli O Bataille C Hauszligner M Ismer R Joltreau E et al Fillinggaps in the policy package to decarbonise production and use of materials BerlinGermany Climate Strategies 2018

[251] Koch N Fuss S Grosjean G Edenhofer O Causes of the EU ETS price drop re-cession CDM renewable policies or a bit of everythingmdashnew evidence EnergyPolicy 201473676ndash85 httpsdoiorg101016jenpol201406024

[252] Murray BC Maniloff PT Why have greenhouse emissions in RGGI states declinedAn econometric attribution to economic energy market and policy factorsEnergy Econ 201551581ndash9 httpsdoiorg101016jeneco201507013

[253] California Air Resources Board Californiarsquos 2017 climate change scoping planSacramento CA 2017

[254] Pahle M Burtraw D Flachsland C Kelsey N Biber E Meckling J et al Sequencingto ratchet up climate policy stringency Nat Clim Change 20188861ndash7 httpsdoiorg101038s41558-018-0287-6

[255] Massachusetts Institute of Technology Production in the innovation economy2019 httpwebmitedupie [accessed February 1 2019]

[256] Ivester R Advanced manufacturing at the US Department of Energy 2018[257] US Department of Energy Lab-embedded entrepreneurship programs 2019

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[258] Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development BenFranklin Technology Partners 2017 httpsbenfranklinorg [accessed February1 2019]

[259] US Department of Energy Bandwidth studies Energy analysis data and reports2017 httpswwwenergygoveereamoenergy-analysis-data-and-reports [ac-cessed February 1 2019]

[260] Sustainable Development Technology Canada SDTC support translates to eco-nomic and environmental benefits 2019 httpswwwsdtccaenresultsour-impact [accessed April 25 2019]

[261] ARPA-E ARPA-E history 2019 httpsarpa-eenergygovq=arpa-e-site-pagearpa-e-history [accessed April 25 2019]

[262] ARPA-E ARPA-E impact 2019 httpsarpa-eenergygovq=site-pagearpa-e-impact [accessed April 25 2019]

[263] Alcoa Alcoa and Rio Tinto announce worldrsquos first carbon-free aluminum smeltingprocess Alcoa online newsroom 2018 httpsnewsalcoacompress-releasealcoa-and-rio-tinto-announce-worlds-first-carbon-free-aluminum-smelting-process[accessed February 2 2019]

[264] PRIME Coalition What is PRIME 2019 httpsprimecoalitionorgwhat-is-prime [accessed April 25 2019]

[265] Breakthrough Energy Breakthrough energy ventures Breakthrough energy 2019httpwwwb-tenergyventures [accessed February 2 2019]

[266] Holtzman YUS Research and development tax credit CPA J 2017[267] US Department of the Treasury The case for temporary 100 percent expensing

encouraging business to expand now by lowering the cost of investment 2010[268] Molina M Kiker P Nowak S The greatest energy story you havenrsquot heard how

investing in energy efficiency changed the US power sector and gave us a tool totackle climate change 2016

[269] Xenergy Inc United States industrial electric motor systems market opportunitiesassessment Washington DC US Department of Energy 2002

[270] SRI International Saving energy building skills industrial assessment centersimpact 2015


33

[271] Oak Ridge National Laboratory Results from the US DOE 2008 save energy nowassessment initiative Oak Ridge TN 2010

[272] US Census Bureau 2016 annual survey of manufactures Washington DC 2017[273] Worrell E Laitner JA Ruth M Finman H Productivity benefits of industrial en-

ergy efficiency measures Energy 2003281081ndash98 httpsdoiorg101016S0360-5442(03)00091-4

[274] Russell C Multiple benefits of business-sector energy efficiency a survey of ex-isting and potential measures Am Council Energy-Efficient Econ 2015

[275] Elliott N Molina M Trombley D A defining framework for intelligent efficiencyWashington DC American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 2012

[276] Price L Voluntary agreements for energy efficiency or GHG emissions reduction inindustry an assessment of programs around the world ACEEE Summer StudyEnergy Efficiency Ind 20051ndash12 httpsdoiorg101057fr201317

[277] METI Japan Top runner program developing the worldrsquos best energy-efficientappliance and more Tokyo Japan 2015

[278] Younger M Morrow-Almeida HR Vindigni SM Dannenberg AL The built en-vironment climate change and health opportunities for co-benefits Am J PrevMed 200835517ndash26 httpsdoiorg101016jamepre200808017

[279] US Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA interactive data application 2018[280] Allwood JM Ashby MF Gutowski TG Worrell E Material efficiency a white

paper Resour Conserv Recycl 201155362ndash81 httpsdoiorg101016jresconrec201011002

[281] Ramesh T Prakash R Shukla KK Life cycle energy analysis of buildings anoverview Energy Build 2010421592ndash600 httpsdoiorg101016jenbuild201005007

[282] Saumlynaumljoki A Heinonen J Junnila S A scenario analysis of the life cycle green-house gas emissions of a new residential area Environ Res Lett 20127034037httpsdoiorg1010881748-932673034037

[283] Miller SA Horvath A Monteiro PJM Ostertag CP Greenhouse gas emissions fromconcrete can be reduced by using mix proportions geometric aspects and age asdesign factors Environ Res Lett 201510114017 httpsdoiorg1010881748-93261011114017

[284] Mueller CT 3D printed structures challenges and opportunities Struct Mag 2016[285] Scheuer C Keoleian GA Reppe P Life cycle energy and environmental perfor-

mance of a new university building modeling challenges and design implicationsEnergy Build 2003351049ndash64 httpsdoiorg101016S0378-7788(03)00066-5

[286] National Development and Reform Commission Report on resource utilizationBeijing China 2014

[287] Tian Z Zhang X Enhancing energy efficiency in China assessment of sectoralpotentials UNEP DTU Partnership 2017

[288] Econet China Econet Monitor 2014[289] Kurtis KE Innovations in cement-based materials addressing sustainability in

structural and infrastructure applications MRS Bull 2015401102ndash9 httpsdoiorg101557mrs2015279

[290] National Ready Mixed Concrete Association Minimum cementitious materialscontent 2015

[291] CDP About Us 2019 httpswwwcdpneteninfoabout-us [accessed March 42019]

[292] TCFD About the task force 2019 httpswwwfsb-tcfdorgabout [accessedMarch 4 2019]

[293] Science Based Targets Science based targets 2019 httpssciencebasedtargetsorg [accessed November 15 2019]

[294] Krabbe O Linthorst G Blok K Crijns-Graus W van Vuuren DP Houmlhne N et alAligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals Nat ClimChange 201551057ndash60 httpsdoiorg101038nclimate2770

[295] CDP Cascading commitments driving ambitious action through supply chainengagement 2019

[296] CDP Supply chain 2019 httpswwwcdpnetensupply-chain [accessed March4 2019]

[297] CDP Global supply chain report 2019 2019 httpswwwcdpnetenresearchglobal-reportsglobal-supply-chain-report-2019 [accessed March 4 2019]

[298] Merchant E Apple backs a new joint venture for zero-carbon aluminum smeltingGreentech Media 2018

[299] Akbarnezhad A Xiao J Estimation and minimization of embodied carbon ofbuildings a review Buildings 201775 httpsdoiorg103390buildings7010005

[300] Wu P Low SP Xia B Zuo J Achieving transparency in carbon labelling for con-struction materials ndash lessons from current assessment standards and carbon labelsEnviron Sci Policy 20144411ndash25 httpsdoiorg101016jenvsci201407009

[301] EPD International AB The International EPDreg System 2019 httpswwwenvirondeccom [accessed May 3 2019]

[302] Vaughan A Tesco drops carbon-label pledge The Guardian 2012[303] UN Environment Program Global review of sustainable public procurement 2017

2017[304] BlueGreen Alliance Buy clean California act clamps down on imported carbon

emissions 2017 httpswwwbluegreenallianceorgthe-latestbuy-clean-california-act-clamps-down-on-imported-carbon-emissions [accessed February 62019]

[305] Japan Ministry of the Environment Introduction to green purchasing legislation inJapan 2016

[306] India Ministry of Power National Ujala Dashboard 2019 httpwwwujalagovin [accessed April 29 2019]

[307] US Environmental Protection Agency Advancing sustainable materials man-agement 2015 fact sheet Washington DC 2018

[308] Albeck-Ripka L Your recycling gets recycled right Maybe or maybe not TheNew York Times 2018

[309] Capital Scrap Metal Price of scrap metal 2019 httpswwwcapitalscrapmetalcomprices [accessed February 21 2019]

[310] Geyn I Massachusetts city hauler head to trial over post-China recycling contractterms Waste Dive 2019 httpswwwwastedivecomnewsmassachusetts-city-hauler-lawsuit-contract-recycling548715 [accessed February 21 2019]

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[312] Zaman AU Lehmann S Urban growth and waste management optimization to-wards lsquozero waste cityrsquo City Cult Soc 20112177ndash87 httpsdoiorg101016jccs201111007

[313] Kaza S Yao LC Bhada-Tata P Van Woerden F What a waste 20 a global snapshotof solid waste management to 2050 Washington DC World Bank Group 2018

[314] Zero Waste Scotland Zero Waste Scotland Zero Waste Scotland 2019 httpswwwzerowastescotlandorguk [accessed February 21 2019]

[315] European Commission Commission reviews implementation of EU waste rulesproposes actions to help 14 Member States meet recycling targets EuropeanCommission - European Commission 2018

[316] US Environmental Protection Agency Zero waste case study San Francisco USEPA 2013 httpswwwepagovtransforming-waste-toolzero-waste-case-study-san-francisco [accessed February 21 2019]

[317] Lewis P Barr C Clarke S Voce A Levett C Gutieacuterrez P et al Revealed the riseand rise of populist rhetoric The Guardian 2019

[318] Pew Research Center Political polarization in the American public WashingtonDC 2014

[319] US Bureau of Labor Statistics Industries at a glance natural resources andmining 2019 httpswwwblsgoviagtgsiag10htm [accessed February 282019]

[320] Bezdek RH Wendling RM The jobs impact of GHG reduction strategies in theUSA Int J Global Warm 20146380 httpsdoiorg101504IJGW2014066046

[321] Montt G Wiebe KS Harsdorff M Simas M Bonnet A Wood R Does climate actiondestroy jobs An assessment of the employment implications of the 2-degree goalInt Labour Rev 2018157519ndash56 httpsdoiorg101111ilr12118

[322] de la Rue du Can S Khandekar A Abhyankar N Phadke A Khanna NZ Fridley Det al Modeling Indiarsquos energy future using a bottom-up approach Appl Energy20192381108ndash25 httpsdoiorg101016japenergy201901065

[323] Roy J Dasgupta S Chakrabarty D Deep decarbonisation in industries what doesit mean for India Germany Wuppertal 2016 p 88ndash91

[324] Dasgupta S Roy J Understanding technological progress and input price as dri-vers of energy demand in manufacturing industries in India - ScienceDirectEnergy Policy 2015831ndash13 httpsdoiorg101016jenpol201503024

[325] Dasgupta S van der Salm F Roy J Designing PAT as a climate policy in Indiaissues learnt from EU-ETS Nature economy and society understanding the lin-kages New Delhi India Springer 2015 p 315ndash28

[326] Roy J Dasgupta S Ghosh D Das N Chakravarty D Chakraborty D et alGoverning national actions for global climate change stabilization examples fromIndia Climate change governance and adaptation case studies from South AsiaBoca Raton FL CRC Press 2018

[327] Garnaik SP National mission for enhanced energy efficiency 2010[328] National Development and Reform Commission Review of the eleventh five-year

plan top-1000 program exceeded targets 2011 httpwwwgovcngzdt2011-0930content_1960586htm [accessed February 5 2019]

[329] ClimateWorks The race is on china kick-starts its clean economy 2011[330] The Economist The East is Grey 2013[331] Gu Y Top-10000 program exceeds its energy-saving target 2016 httpwww

govcnxinwen2016-0110content_5031835htm [accessed February 5 2019]


34

Technologies and policies to decarbonize global industry Review and assessment of mitigation drivers through 2070

Introduction

Two-degree-compatible industrial decarbonization pathways

Modeled global industry emissions

Modeled global hydrogen adoption

Modeled global carbon capture and storage

Three phases of technology deployment

Supply-side interventions Materials and carbon capture

Cement production

Techniques that reduce process emissions from cement

Techniques that reduce thermal fuel-related emissions from cement

Techniques that reduce both process and energy-related emissions from cement

Iron and steel production

Chemicals production

Avoiding fossil fuel emissions

Biomass feedstocks and recycled chemicals

Reuse of CO2 for chemicals production

Chemical separations

Carbon capture and storage or use (CCS or CCU)

Supply-side interventions Energy

Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency

The importance of integrated design

Efficient steam systems and heat recovery

Best practices for energy-efficient industrial system design

Demand-side interventions

Reduced material use longevity intensity and material efficiency

Additive manufacturing (3D Printing)

Material substitution

Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing

RDampx200Bampampx200BD support

RDampx200Bampampx200BD policies in context

Policies to promote industrial RDampx200Bampampx200BD

Elements of successful RDampx200Bampampx200BD programs and policies

Energy efficiency or emissions standards

Building codes

Data disclosure and ESG

Labeling of low-carbon products and materials

Government procurement policies

Recycling incentives or requirements

Sociological considerations

Equity for labor and disadvantaged communities

A low-carbon development pathway for developing nations

Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results

Supplementary material

References

bull Specific technologies for iron amp steel cement and chemicals amp plastics

bull Carbon pricing research support standards government purchases data disclosure

A R T I C L E I N F O

KeywordsIndustryEmissionsTechnologyPolicyEnergyMaterials

A B S T R A C T

Fully decarbonizing global industry is essential to achieving climate stabilization and reaching net zerogreenhouse gas emissions by 2050ndash2070 is necessary to limit global warming to 2 degC This paper assembles andevaluates technical and policy interventions both on the supply side and on the demand side It identifiesmeasures that employed together can achieve net zero industrial emissions in the required timeframe Keysupply-side technologies include energy efficiency (especially at the system level) carbon capture electrifica-tion and zero-carbon hydrogen as a heat source and chemical feedstock There are also promising technologiesspecific to each of the three top-emitting industries cement iron amp steel and chemicals amp plastics These includecement admixtures and alternative chemistries several technological routes for zero-carbon steelmaking andnovel chemical catalysts and separation technologies Crucial demand-side approaches include material-efficientdesign reductions in material waste substituting low-carbon for high-carbon materials and circular economyinterventions (such as improving product longevity reusability ease of refurbishment and recyclability)Strategic well-designed policy can accelerate innovation and provide incentives for technology deploymentHigh-value policies include carbon pricing with border adjustments or other price signals robust governmentsupport for research development and deployment and energy efficiency or emissions standards These corepolicies should be supported by labeling and government procurement of low-carbon products data collectionand disclosure requirements and recycling incentives In implementing these policies care must be taken toensure a just transition for displaced workers and affected communities Similarly decarbonization must com-plement the human and economic development of low- and middle-income countries

1 Introduction

To avert dangerous climate change it is necessary to reducegreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from every sector of the globaleconomy Modeled emissions trajectories that limit likely warming to2 degC generally require reaching net zero emissions in the latter half ofthe 21st century and net negative emissions thereafter [1] To limitwarming to 15 degC emissions must reach net zero around 2050 [2]

The industry sector was responsible for 33 of global anthro-pogenic GHG emissions in 2014 This figure includes emissions from on-site fuel combustion emissions from manufacturing processes and in-direct emissions associated with purchased electricity and heat withoutindirect emissions the industry sector was still responsible for 19 of

global anthropogenic GHG emissions (Fig 1)Industry is at the core of developing low-carbon solutions it is re-

sponsible for producing technologies such as renewable electricitygeneration facilities clean vehicles and energy-efficient buildingsTherefore it is imperative to reduce emissions from industrial opera-tions while industry continues to supply transformational technologiesand infrastructure These approaches should be compatible with apathway to zero industrial emissions

A variety of technologies product design choices and operationalapproaches can rapidly and cost-effectively reduce energy consumptionand GHG emissions across a broad range of industries Breakthroughs inareas such as 3D printing improved chemical catalysts and facilityautomation are transforming how we make everything from

Fig 1 Emissions by sector in 2014 displayed withindirect emissions (from the generation of purchasedelectricity and heat) assigned to the sectors thatpurchased that energy or grouped into a singleldquopowerrdquo sector For more detail on which industriesare included in the ldquoindustryrdquo sector see Fig 2Emissions from agriculture from waste (eg landfillswastewater treatment) and fugitive emissions (egmethane leakage from coal mines and natural gassystems) are not considered part of the industrysector in this paper [34]


2

















3






4











5
















6









ble1

Afram


global

indu

stry

from

2020

to2070T


nof

whatwould

benecessaryto

achieverapidglobal

indu

stry

decarbonization

notapredictio

nof

whatwill

happen

Achievableem

issionsredu

ctions

arerelativ

eto

present-d

ayem

issionslevelsT

echn

ologiesthat


oneph

asecontinue

tobe

used

andrefin

edin

subsequent

phasesE

venafteratechnology

achieves

materiality

furtherRamp

Disnecessaryto

continue


proveperformanceb

utthisRamp

Dwill

increasingly

becond

uctedby

privatefirms

Timeframe

Actions

Techno

logies


Key

RampDareasto

enab

lefuture

techno

logies

Achievableem

ission

sredu

ctions

2020

ndash203

5Effi

ciency

improves

continuouslyw

ithmostindu

strial

processesun

dergoing

increm

ental

improvem

entsA

fter20

30efficiency

deliv

ersdiminishing

returnsAgrow

ingnu

mberof

processesshift

towards

electricity

particularly

forlight

indu

stryw

here

electricity

usedoubles

from

2020

to20

40M


re-use

arerecognized

askeystrategies

and

beginto

becodifiedinto

policy

Heavy


into

technologies

that

will

beim

portantinsubsequent

phasessuchas

build

ingCC

Sdemonstratio

nplantsandredu

cing

the

costof

zero-carbonhydrogen

bullElectrification


bullEnergyeffi

ciency

bullIncreasedre-use

andrecycling

(circulareconom

y)

bullCCS

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullNovelchem

ical


ns

bullNew

cementchem

istries

20

2035

ndash205

0Structural

shiftsem

erge

basedon

technologies

that


for

commercial

deploymentin

the20

20ndash203

5tim

eframeCC

Sfalls

into

thiscategory

anddeploys


ingamarketp

ullo

rpricepu

shto

incentivizeit

Alte

rnate

materials(new

cementchem


ings)gain

marketacceptance

andarewidely

adopted

bullCCS

bullNew

cementchem

istries

bullAlte

rnativematerials

bullNew

chem

ical

productio

nmethods

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

50

2050

ndash207


eginsfor

processa

ndenergy

technologies

thatarenascenttoday

butare

refin


20ndash205


stry

scales

rapidlydu

ring

thisperiodW

ithsufficientp

olicypu

shthisperiod

coulddeliv

ernet-zeroem

issionsforindu

stry

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullOngoing

refin

ementof

existin

gprom

ising

technologicalp

athw

ays

80ndash100


7










8

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References

















3






4











5
















6









ble1

Afram


global

indu

stry

from

2020

to2070T


nof

whatwould

benecessaryto

achieverapidglobal

indu

stry

decarbonization

notapredictio

nof

whatwill

happen

Achievableem

issionsredu

ctions

arerelativ

eto

present-d

ayem

issionslevelsT

echn

ologiesthat


oneph

asecontinue

tobe

used

andrefin

edin

subsequent

phasesE

venafteratechnology

achieves

materiality

furtherRamp

Disnecessaryto

continue


proveperformanceb

utthisRamp

Dwill

increasingly

becond

uctedby

privatefirms

Timeframe

Actions

Techno

logies


Key

RampDareasto

enab

lefuture

techno

logies

Achievableem

ission

sredu

ctions

2020

ndash203

5Effi

ciency

improves

continuouslyw

ithmostindu

strial

processesun

dergoing

increm

ental

improvem

entsA

fter20

30efficiency

deliv

ersdiminishing

returnsAgrow

ingnu

mberof

processesshift

towards

electricity

particularly

forlight

indu

stryw

here

electricity

usedoubles

from

2020

to20

40M


re-use

arerecognized

askeystrategies

and

beginto

becodifiedinto

policy

Heavy


into

technologies

that

will

beim

portantinsubsequent

phasessuchas

build

ingCC

Sdemonstratio

nplantsandredu

cing

the

costof

zero-carbonhydrogen

bullElectrification


bullEnergyeffi

ciency

bullIncreasedre-use

andrecycling

(circulareconom

y)

bullCCS

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullNovelchem

ical


ns

bullNew

cementchem

istries

20

2035

ndash205

0Structural

shiftsem

erge

basedon

technologies

that


for

commercial

deploymentin

the20

20ndash203

5tim

eframeCC

Sfalls

into

thiscategory

anddeploys


ingamarketp

ullo

rpricepu

shto

incentivizeit

Alte

rnate

materials(new

cementchem


ings)gain

marketacceptance

andarewidely

adopted

bullCCS

bullNew

cementchem

istries

bullAlte

rnativematerials

bullNew

chem

ical

productio

nmethods

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

50

2050

ndash207


eginsfor

processa

ndenergy

technologies

thatarenascenttoday

butare

refin


20ndash205


stry

scales

rapidlydu

ring

thisperiodW

ithsufficientp

olicypu

shthisperiod

coulddeliv

ernet-zeroem

issionsforindu

stry

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullOngoing

refin

ementof

existin

gprom

ising

technologicalp

athw

ays

80ndash100


7










8

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References






4











5
















6









ble1

Afram


global

indu

stry

from

2020

to2070T


nof

whatwould

benecessaryto

achieverapidglobal

indu

stry

decarbonization

notapredictio

nof

whatwill

happen

Achievableem

issionsredu

ctions

arerelativ

eto

present-d

ayem

issionslevelsT

echn

ologiesthat


oneph

asecontinue

tobe

used

andrefin

edin

subsequent

phasesE

venafteratechnology

achieves

materiality

furtherRamp

Disnecessaryto

continue


proveperformanceb

utthisRamp

Dwill

increasingly

becond

uctedby

privatefirms

Timeframe

Actions

Techno

logies


Key

RampDareasto

enab

lefuture

techno

logies

Achievableem

ission

sredu

ctions

2020

ndash203

5Effi

ciency

improves

continuouslyw

ithmostindu

strial

processesun

dergoing

increm

ental

improvem

entsA

fter20

30efficiency

deliv

ersdiminishing

returnsAgrow

ingnu

mberof

processesshift

towards

electricity

particularly

forlight

indu

stryw

here

electricity

usedoubles

from

2020

to20

40M


re-use

arerecognized

askeystrategies

and

beginto

becodifiedinto

policy

Heavy


into

technologies

that

will

beim

portantinsubsequent

phasessuchas

build

ingCC

Sdemonstratio

nplantsandredu

cing

the

costof

zero-carbonhydrogen

bullElectrification


bullEnergyeffi

ciency

bullIncreasedre-use

andrecycling

(circulareconom

y)

bullCCS

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullNovelchem

ical


ns

bullNew

cementchem

istries

20

2035

ndash205

0Structural

shiftsem

erge

basedon

technologies

that


for

commercial

deploymentin

the20

20ndash203

5tim

eframeCC

Sfalls

into

thiscategory

anddeploys


ingamarketp

ullo

rpricepu

shto

incentivizeit

Alte

rnate

materials(new

cementchem


ings)gain

marketacceptance

andarewidely

adopted

bullCCS

bullNew

cementchem

istries

bullAlte

rnativematerials

bullNew

chem

ical

productio

nmethods

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

50

2050

ndash207


eginsfor

processa

ndenergy

technologies

thatarenascenttoday

butare

refin


20ndash205


stry

scales

rapidlydu

ring

thisperiodW

ithsufficientp

olicypu

shthisperiod

coulddeliv

ernet-zeroem

issionsforindu

stry

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullOngoing

refin

ementof

existin

gprom

ising

technologicalp

athw

ays

80ndash100


7










8

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References











5
















6









ble1

Afram


global

indu

stry

from

2020

to2070T


nof

whatwould

benecessaryto

achieverapidglobal

indu

stry

decarbonization

notapredictio

nof

whatwill

happen

Achievableem

issionsredu

ctions

arerelativ

eto

present-d

ayem

issionslevelsT

echn

ologiesthat


oneph

asecontinue

tobe

used

andrefin

edin

subsequent

phasesE

venafteratechnology

achieves

materiality

furtherRamp

Disnecessaryto

continue


proveperformanceb

utthisRamp

Dwill

increasingly

becond

uctedby

privatefirms

Timeframe

Actions

Techno

logies


Key

RampDareasto

enab

lefuture

techno

logies

Achievableem

ission

sredu

ctions

2020

ndash203

5Effi

ciency

improves

continuouslyw

ithmostindu

strial

processesun

dergoing

increm

ental

improvem

entsA

fter20

30efficiency

deliv

ersdiminishing

returnsAgrow

ingnu

mberof

processesshift

towards

electricity

particularly

forlight

indu

stryw

here

electricity

usedoubles

from

2020

to20

40M


re-use

arerecognized

askeystrategies

and

beginto

becodifiedinto

policy

Heavy


into

technologies

that

will

beim

portantinsubsequent

phasessuchas

build

ingCC

Sdemonstratio

nplantsandredu

cing

the

costof

zero-carbonhydrogen

bullElectrification


bullEnergyeffi

ciency

bullIncreasedre-use

andrecycling

(circulareconom

y)

bullCCS

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullNovelchem

ical


ns

bullNew

cementchem

istries

20

2035

ndash205

0Structural

shiftsem

erge

basedon

technologies

that


for

commercial

deploymentin

the20

20ndash203

5tim

eframeCC

Sfalls

into

thiscategory

anddeploys


ingamarketp

ullo

rpricepu

shto

incentivizeit

Alte

rnate

materials(new

cementchem


ings)gain

marketacceptance

andarewidely

adopted

bullCCS

bullNew

cementchem

istries

bullAlte

rnativematerials

bullNew

chem

ical

productio

nmethods

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

50

2050

ndash207


eginsfor

processa

ndenergy

technologies

thatarenascenttoday

butare

refin


20ndash205


stry

scales

rapidlydu

ring

thisperiodW

ithsufficientp

olicypu

shthisperiod

coulddeliv

ernet-zeroem

issionsforindu

stry

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullOngoing

refin

ementof

existin

gprom

ising

technologicalp

athw

ays

80ndash100


7










8

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References
















6









ble1

Afram


global

indu

stry

from

2020

to2070T


nof

whatwould

benecessaryto

achieverapidglobal

indu

stry

decarbonization

notapredictio

nof

whatwill

happen

Achievableem

issionsredu

ctions

arerelativ

eto

present-d

ayem

issionslevelsT

echn

ologiesthat


oneph

asecontinue

tobe

used

andrefin

edin

subsequent

phasesE

venafteratechnology

achieves

materiality

furtherRamp

Disnecessaryto

continue


proveperformanceb

utthisRamp

Dwill

increasingly

becond

uctedby

privatefirms

Timeframe

Actions

Techno

logies


Key

RampDareasto

enab

lefuture

techno

logies

Achievableem

ission

sredu

ctions

2020

ndash203

5Effi

ciency

improves

continuouslyw

ithmostindu

strial

processesun

dergoing

increm

ental

improvem

entsA

fter20

30efficiency

deliv

ersdiminishing

returnsAgrow

ingnu

mberof

processesshift

towards

electricity

particularly

forlight

indu

stryw

here

electricity

usedoubles

from

2020

to20

40M


re-use

arerecognized

askeystrategies

and

beginto

becodifiedinto

policy

Heavy


into

technologies

that

will

beim

portantinsubsequent

phasessuchas

build

ingCC

Sdemonstratio

nplantsandredu

cing

the

costof

zero-carbonhydrogen

bullElectrification


bullEnergyeffi

ciency

bullIncreasedre-use

andrecycling

(circulareconom

y)

bullCCS

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullNovelchem

ical


ns

bullNew

cementchem

istries

20

2035

ndash205

0Structural

shiftsem

erge

basedon

technologies

that


for

commercial

deploymentin

the20

20ndash203

5tim

eframeCC

Sfalls

into

thiscategory

anddeploys


ingamarketp

ullo

rpricepu

shto

incentivizeit

Alte

rnate

materials(new

cementchem


ings)gain

marketacceptance

andarewidely

adopted

bullCCS

bullNew

cementchem

istries

bullAlte

rnativematerials

bullNew

chem

ical

productio

nmethods

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

50

2050

ndash207


eginsfor

processa

ndenergy

technologies

thatarenascenttoday

butare

refin


20ndash205


stry

scales

rapidlydu

ring

thisperiodW

ithsufficientp

olicypu

shthisperiod

coulddeliv

ernet-zeroem

issionsforindu

stry

bullZero-carbon

hydrogen

productio

n

bullHydrogenuse

bullOngoing

refin

ementof

existin

gprom

ising

technologicalp

athw

ays

80ndash100


7










8

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References









ble1

Afram


global

indu

stry

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7










8

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References










8

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References

















9

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References

















10











11












12















41 Hydrogen






13













42 Electrification




14



















15





















16



















17















18



54 Circular economy









19




6 Policies





61 Carbon pricing








20



62 RDampD support











21













22














64 Building codes



23
















24


















25



















26






8 Conclusion






27




Funding











Survey results






28



Policy Responses






29


TOTAL 111



References

































































30






































































31




































































32




































































33






























































34


Introduction







Cement production












Hydrogen

Electrification

Energy efficiency








Circular economy

Policies

Carbon pricing






Building codes








Conclusion

Funding


mkH1_49

Workshop background

Survey results


References

technologies and policies to decarbonize global industry

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