technologies for tomorrow michael a. einhorn, ph.d. affiliate center for u.s. ukrainian relations...
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TECHNOLOGIES FOR TOMORROW
Michael A. Einhorn, Ph.D.Affiliate
Center for U.S. Ukrainian [email protected]
UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• Software and Outsourcing
• Academic Science
• Mining and Metals
• Agriculture
• Energy
HISTORICAL MODELS FOR INDUSTRIALIZATION
• 1860: U. S. and Germany (growth in technology helped by academics and government)
• Poland and Hungary follow
• 1880-1960: Japan (imitation, management)
• 1960-2010 Taiwan and South Korea (information technology)
• 1990: India (software)
STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH
• market economies• Information technology • intellectual property• basic research funding • spillovers & synergies• academic and industrial clusters • first mover advantages • gains from imitation • network and cluster effects • user networks and declining costs • ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS
KEY TRENDS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
• MAINFRAME TO PC – information becomes more accessible.
• MOORE’S LAW: chip speed double ever 18 months
• MEMORIES improve
• PRIVATE NETWORKS: data can be exchanged through software-defined channels.
• INTERNET, INTRANET, AND WEB: open networks
• CLOUD COMPUTING: move functionalities back into network through software and
• CHEAP INFORMATION APPLIANCES: put software intelligence in network, off personal computer
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
• fiber optic • packet switching • storage • Private and virtual
private networks • computer assisted
design, manufacture, engineering
• world wide web• cloud computing
• outsourcing• joint ventures• strategic alliances• LDC development • cyber-communities• R&D consortia• open source• Open innovation
INFORMATION ARENAS
•outsourcing•joint ventures •strategic alliances •consortium research •cyber-communities •open source•open innovation
• outsourcing• joint ventures• strategic alliances• LDC development • cyber-communities• R&D consortia• open source• Open innovation
CLOUD COMPUTING
• Computing platforms in the network, not the edge• Network provides software-enabled virtual services • PCs need less or no software; they became cheaper
and enable more connectivity• Less need for dedicated capital expenditures • Dynamically scalable• Providers: Sun, IBM, Amazon, Google, Yahoo,
Microsoft, Vmware• Users: General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Vmware
SOFTWARE NETWORKS IN BANGALORE
• General Electric installed first dam in 1902• Understood Indian competence in S&T• Established campus in Bangalore for
engineering research• Developed outsourcing center: 22,000• Call center, back office, software development,
product design, R&D• Virtual plastics plant: Spain/India• 50% of GE’s software is now developed in India
WHAT SOFTWARE ENABLES • Instant access to manufacturing process -- CAD, CAM, CAE
• Process modularity, optimal location, and feedback
• Wider connectivity, cyber-meshes, and team production
• Cloud computing- information in network, not nodes
• Interactivity, Virtual organization, and experimental science
• Knowledge Emergence
• Academic, government, & business interconnection
OPEN RESEARCH & INNOVATION
• Conducted in real or virtual research groups
• Primary data and methodologies can be posted which can be added to/interpreted by any qualified collaborators.
• Virtual scientific experiments are possible
• Knowledge emerges and end-products arise from many contributions distributed throughout the network.
• Can be preferred to proprietary research if positive network effects arise from collaboration
ACADEMIC SCIENCE
• Academics share ideas: German metals, U.S. agriculture
• Industry partnerships; government roundtables
• Academic goes commercial: U.S. Biotechnology
• Spillovers and local economy effects: Stanford, MIT
• National competitive advantage: Japan, Korea, Taiwan
VIRTUAL ORGANIZATIONS
• A virtual organization is one whose members are geographically apart, usually working by computer e-mail and groupware while appearing to others to be a single, unified organization with a real physical location.
• – VIRTUAL CORPORATIONS outsource the majority
of functions – VIRTUAL BUSINESSES operate without a
corresponding physical identity and transact entirely via the Internet
– VIRTUAL ENTERPRISES share resources to achieve their goals
CLUSTERS & CRITICAL MASSES
• Factor endowment or academic/research geographic core
• Increase cost-economies and process productivities through relationships, scale/scope efficiencies and network effects
• Extend core competencies through learning-by-doing and information-sharing
• Educated labor pool and social relationships
• Create innovations, spin-offs, and economic zones
• Foreign investors, partners, joint ventures, strategic alliances
HI-TECH CLUSTERS
• Computer U.S.: Silicon Valley, Boston, Austin, Research Triangle, Seattle, Albany
• Pharma and Biotech: New Jersey, New Mexico, Research Triangle, Leiden, Switzerland,
• Europe: Delft, Eindhoven, Oeiras, Heidelberg, Stockholm (telecom), Hilversum (multimedia), Toulouse (aerospace), Grenoble (micro-technologies), Cambridge (biotech), Tuttlingen (surgical instruments)
SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
• system of agents and technologies involved in transform raw materials and components into deliverable product
• production links include extraction, component construction, assembly, merging, transportation, storage, & distribution.
• optimization balances sourcing, distribution capacity, inventory costs, and T&D.
• global supply chains: Ford, Intel, Apple, Boeing
• manufacture parts, not products
• nations develop and specialize in core competencies.
UKRAINIAN SOFTWARE AND OUTSOURCING
• .
• Termed most attractive and fastest growing outsourcing destination in East. Europe by GoalEurope.com.
• Market size $246 million in 2006, up 47% from previous year . • 30,000 IT graduates per year• Of the 70 companies interviewed, seven employed 300+ people
whilst 21 had 100+.• Economically competitive with EU • Poland and other EU members now seek qualified IT resources
in Ukraine.• Germany employs 6% of all outsourcing resources in Ukraine.
• Big firms: Siemens, Phillips, Alcatel, Flextronics, HP
VIRTUAL DESIGN IN UKRAINE
• planes, ships, trucks buses, cars, trains
• computer and electronic equipment,
• precision instruments
• agricultural machines and sugar refining,
• TV and radiosets,
• chemicals and textiles
• OUTSOURCING, DIFFUSION, & GLOBALIZATION
UKRAINIAN METALS • 25% of industrial output and 40% of goods exports • vast deposits of iron/manganese ores and bauxite • coking coal and non-metallic materials – limestone, molding
sand, and refractory clay. • gold, titanium, potassium, magnesium, table salt, sulfur• dense transport network = efficient delivery of raw materials
and goods to the plants. • reliable workforce training • machine building industry and other industrial buyers • superconducting materials, hard alloys, and pure metals• export goods and ideas ?• import Western/Japanese/Chinese technology ?
UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE• Wheat harvesting and sugar refining
• Ukrainian research labs (e.g., soil at Lviv & Odessa)
• American land grant universities
• Pollution, toxicity, and pest control
• fertilizer production
• water use and dams
• farm machinery (metals)
• plant genetics and new products
UKRAINIAN ENERGY
• oil substitutes: coal, shale, hydro electric
• safe nuclear
• alternatives: wind, thermal waters, safe nuclear
• superconductivity
• smart (software modulated) grids
• Improved metallurgy
SMART ELECTRICITY GRIDS
• dispatch/routing: automatic efficient self-healing • programmable and controllable appliances• metering, real time pricing, load shedding• can integrate power and telecom channels• now receives 50%+ of venture K in U.S.
cleantech sector • smart devices/integration: Cisco/Google• wide area: Smart Grids Technology in Europe• local: Austin (TX), Ontario, Telegestore (IT)• U.S 2009: $11 b of government aid
ECONOMIC PRESCRIPTION • Extend advantages in ag & mining; move beyond commodity-based
economy
• Promote core competencies in STEM; develop educational and research bases and networks
• Use IT to integrate core-specific technologies with global community
• Develop local economic clusters in ag/mining/academic regions; outsource when possible to rural areas.
• Produce parts and Integrate into global supply chains
• Create accounting transparency; seek direct foreign investment
• Promote exports in world markets; encourage domestic savings