technology and international relations technology has had profound impacts on warfare and thus...
TRANSCRIPT
Technology and International Relations Technology has had profound impacts
on warfare and thus broader International Politics
There are some key concepts to keep in mind about changes in technology. These inform us of how international
relations has evolved, particularly through war.
It also suggests how the future will evolve as well.
More conceptual issues Combat involves decision making under risk Implementation of Technology requires resources
Resources may be material or physical! Cost/benefit calculations involved
Issues of cognition are involved in integrating technology
The conceptual understanding of the implications of a weapon system may be slow in coming
Loss-of-strength gradient E.g. Melee vs. ranged weapons
Offense vs. defense Technology influences the ability of political units
to sustain themselves
A Brief History of Military Technology
Start with Pre-history Run it to present – then future First weapons
Basic weapon types (or weapon systems)
Mêlée Ranged Armor Fortifications Transportation
Paleolithic - < 12,000 BCE Rocks
knife ~ 2,500,000 years ago) Bones, sticks (Mêlée weapons for you
gamers out there) Fire hardened sticks Basically Clubs
Ranged weapons Darts Slings Bow, Arrow Spears, javelin, atlatl
Paleolithic – Defense Fire (~1,000,000 BCE) Rope (~ 17,000 BCE) the wall
smaller # of defenders versus attackers
wait prepared this made agriculture "cost-effective“ Lanchester theory
3-1 ratio of offense to defense is classical estimate
Tel es-Sultan in Jericho1st
Walled city ~9000BCE
Neolithic – Mêlée weapons(12,000 BCE – 3,000 BCE)
Axe (with hafts – maybe much older) Mace Polearms (quarterstaff, trident)
Neolithic – Ranged weapons
Blowgun Throwing sticks, axes Dart Bola
Source: Wikipedia “Bolas” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolas
Bronze Age – Defense & Armor
Armor Shield (13-14th century BC Egyptian) Helm – 900BC Assyrian Cataphract (~300 BCE)
Transportation Boats - ~8,000 BCE The Wheel (~ 5,000 BCE)
Siege Weapons Siege Tower – late Bronze Age
Bronze Age 3300 BCE – 1200 BCE
Swords – early ones in Egypt, Turkey, and China
Knives The Wheel (~ 5,000 BCE)
Chariot – Sumerian, Egyptian
The Iron Age – the Greeks The phalanx
Hoplites locked shields Second & third ranks poked spears over Allowed greater ratio of fighters
Military discipline allowed for protection on the right made attacks predictable
The ability to march and maneuver offset this.
Greek Weapons
Crossbow (but also China) – 5th Cent BCE
Siege weapons Ballista Catapult
The Greave - increased armor Greek Fire
Roman Empire Professional soldier/standing army
Gaius Marius – 107 BC Ranks from Greeks (elected!) Discipline – fought in cohorts Consolidated from Warlord-like system
Mobility Roads
Prohibited castles increase in horsemanship
Chariots/heavy cavalry The province of the wealthy – had to purchase equipment- and horse!
Stirrups invented by Chinese in Jin dynasty ~300AD Widespread use in China by 477 AD (?) Made it to Europe in 7th & 8th century
Roman Weapons
Static Weapons – Caltrops Testudo Pilum
Bends after throwing Onager Catapulta – tossed javelins
The Roman Empire in Decline The Carolingian Empire used cavalry for
logistics Became significant political structure in the West as Rome
declined Charles Martel Charlemagne
The Holy Roman Empire began to confront the steady introduction of the stirrup and more refined horsemanship
Allowed Castles Protection of food & water supplies
Height & Stability
The Rise of Fortress Europe Which is, to say, Feudal Europe
This exemplifies the back and forth nature of a weapons system. Cavalry rises and then declines.
Medieval
Siege weapons Onager – sling with single rock Mangonel – bucket-like catapult Battering rams Trebuchet Petard – explosive for attacking walls
Medieval Longbow
Effective in Crecy and Agincourt Cannon used scatteringly in Europe
100 years war, Battle of Crecy, 1346 Constantinople 1453
The Great Turkish Bombard (Sahi) The Pike square (Swiss invention)
establishes the primacy of infantry over cavalry
The fort/castle evolves Forts & castles abound during this period
due to the loss of either central authority or ‘national security’
Castles Motte-and-bailey – mounds with
perimeter ditches, and wooden palisade Keep – inner fortification Gatehouses to protect weakest spot Rounded/angled walls to protect from
cannon and square towers to protect from mining and battering rams
Star forts It takes a thousand years for these
innovations to evolve, as technology adapts
Castles & Cannon
With the advent of castles, Europe fragmented in 1000s of principalities
With cannon the trend reversed Cannon sped the shift of the
balance of power to the side with the most cash Artillery is expensive to purchase,
maintain and practice The side with the most money wins
Seapower The Galley had been the mainstay of naval
weaponry for 2000 years (800BC to ~1400AD) ramming and boarding the traditional maneuver
Cannon changed this. Replaced by man-o-war in 14th-15th century
up to 40% of the firepower could be used at one time.
Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads. –
This led to the need for supply bases (ports) which led to a further rash of colonization in the late 1800's
Seapower and trade
The caravel formed the first trading fleets (Prince Henry the Navigator) Utilized more diverse sail
arrangements (lateen as well as square sails)
Maps become substantially better in late 15th early 16th century
Seapower and wealth
Seapower aids in the development of regional economies, and eventually to the development of a global economy
Naval capacity allows for greater comparative advantage More direct transactions (fewer
intermediaries) hence greater access to the developing markets
American Revolution
Musket – muzzle loader The long land pattern musket –
Or “Brown Bess”
Tactics changed as the weapons became more available
The American Civil War
The first “Modern War” The trench Railroad Balloon Ironclads telegraph Breech loading rifle
Spenser repeating rifle
WWI
Machine gun (WWI)- defensive Tank (WWI) The Airplane (WWI) Poison Gas/Chemical weapons Submarine (really invented in
Revolutionary War) Radio Automobile
WWII Sub Machine gun – portable, offensive The aircraft carrier Radar Paratroopers Cryptography
(German Enigma machine) Incendiary weapons (Dresden, Tokyo) Rocket/missile Nuclear weapons
The Cold War
ICBMs Satellites ABM
Korean War
Jet aircraft Helicopter introduced M.A.S.H
Replaced by Combat Support Hospitals
Helicopter Computers Napalm Defoliants (Agent Orange) Precision weapons
Thanh Hoa Bridge – 1972 – first use
Vietnam
Persian Gulf/Iraq/Afghanistan
Stealth technology Information battlefield Cyber War IEDs – e.g. Iraq ABM – Patriot missile Unmanned aircraft
Predator Drones
All of which leads us to the present
Star Wars NMD Cyber War Weapon system senility
Weapon systems age Or become vulnerable and are
replaced
Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD)
Begun in previous administrations Nike-Zeus ABM And announced and promoted under
Reagan SDI is a defensive concept Concept is the implementation of a
defensive shield to protect against ICBMs
Type of SDI systems Energy Weapons
Lasers - for example Particle Beams
Space bases kinetic energy weapons Rail guns Interceptors
Ground based ABM systems ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor
Subsystem) HEDI (High Endo-atmospheric Defense
Interceptor)
Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative – NMD) The basics of anti-ballistic missile
defense Time Altitude
Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs Midcourse Phase Reentry Phase
Kinetic energy weapons KE weapons work based upon their
velocity, and the velocity of the target
Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 2000m/sec imparts 2000000gr/sec2 of energy
Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 12000m/sec imparts 72000000gr/sec2
of energy Damage is exponential with velocity
RailGun test
Railgun US Navy 2008.jpg Photograph taken from a high-speed video camera during a record-setting firing of an electromagnetic railgun (EMRG) at Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren, Va., on January 31, 2008, firing a 3.2 kg projectile at 10.64MJ (megajoules) with a muzzle velocity of 2520 meters per second. The Office of Naval Research's EMRG program is part of the Department of the Navy's Science and Technology investments, focused on developing new technologies to support Navy and Marine Corps war fighting needs. This photograph is a frame taken from a high-speed video camera. U.S. Navy Photograph (Released)
Video
Effort for Full SDI Shield The magnitude of the support effort required 1. # of satellites
since effective range of most systems is 1000km satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore on
station only 5% of the time 24000/1000 = 24 satellites for 100% coverage
If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles (or 1400 deployed MIRVs) this means 240 satellites
If each satellite requires 3 shuttle/lifter launches
@ $100M apiece…
SDI and Deterrence Stability
If Flexible response is a policy that exists under the umbrella of Mutual assured destruction, does a defensive “shield” destabilize deterrence?
NMD Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs) Battle Management, Command, Control,
and Communications (BMC3), which includes: Battle Management, Command, and Control
(BMC2), and In-Flight Interceptor Communications
System (IFICS) X-Band Radars (XBRs) Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR) Defense Support Program
satellites/Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS)
Accidental launch
Command & control in emerging nuclear arsenals is less secure?
Why should C&C be less capable in a newly emerging nuclear arsenal?
Suppose probability if 1/50 Is risk a series model? A parallel model?
Rogue states
Are rogue states deterrable? It all becomes a question of resolve
Does NMD influence resolve? Does the uncertainty of the
effectiveness influence resolve?
The Future of War What are the key big ticket items in
today’s military? Tanks ($4.3M) Aircraft carriers (~$9B) B2 Bombers (~2.1B) Fighters (~150M)
Increasingly larger portions of procurement costs of weapons systems are devoted to defense
Weapons systems senility
Smart weapons Sensors Increasing load/cost devoted to
system defense Cost of M1A2 is ~$4.3M Cost of Hellfire is $68,000 A SADARM is $65,000
Take Aircraft carriers
Where most effective… Close support in coastal waters
Most vulnerable Anti-ship missiles (e.g. Exocet, Sizzler) Aircraft – 50% + used for carrier
defense Mines
Cost is ~$9B
What Next?
Increasing miniaturization Increasing broadband information
processing Nanotechnology
Horses and Bayonets
Over the next century look for: The End of the Gunboat The End of the Carrier The End of the Tank The End of the Submarine The End of the Manned Combat
Aircraft Sensors, stand-off capability, and
troop mobility
The Evolution of Weapons Systems
Think in terms of Adaptation Survival of fittest Environmental niches
Nuclear Winter
In the 1980s, concern for the climatic effects of nuclear war became notable
The soot caused by urban fires would be lifted to the stratosphere by the plume of firestorms (like this)
Once in the stratosphere, solar heating of the dark dust and soot particles would sustain the particles in the air for decades – (volcanoes do this)
Effects of Nuclear Winter While controversial and currently
hypothetical wide scale use of nuclear weapons could entail A 20 C cooling of large portions of the
centers of the North American, European and Asia land mass.
The means freezing temperatures in the summer
Agriculture becomes impossible, except possibly at or near the equator
Temperature drop – estimatedSource: http://www.mun.ca/biology/scarr/Nuclear_Winter.htm
Further effects
Spread would be global, not restricted to the Northern Hemisphere
Precipitation would drop by 45%-75%
Ozone would be significantly depleted on a global scale