technology forecasting dr. seth bates – tech 198 unit 5: technology transfer and assessment
TRANSCRIPT
Technology Forecasting
Dr. Seth Bates – Tech 198Unit 5: Technology Transfer and Assessment
S-Curves and Technology Trajectories
• Consider an industry or firm and the products it makes.
• Plot and describe the relevant S curve(s) for your industry, from recent history to current trends.
• Is the industry likely to be subject to “natural technological limits”? Why or why not?
• Has it experienced “discontinuities”? Is it likely to do so soon?
The Technology Life Cycle
Life Cycles and S-Curve Forecasting
Disruption and Transition
Creating Value:
• Be ready for paradigm shifts
• Understand how customer needs will evolve
• Understand how technologies will evolve (Both your own and those on which you rely)
• Develop world class products and services that meet customer needs
• Be ready for paradigm shifts
Forecasting
• Can the future of technology be predicted?– Forecasting techniques
• Delphi models• Forecasting by analogy• Trend extrapolation (‘S’ curves)
– The product/process transition
– Technological “exhaustion”
Delphi Models
• Ask the experts!– A committee?– Structured questionnaires?
• Pros– Field experts are often years ahead of day to day
practice: technologies do not “come from no where”
• Cons– They sometimes have little knowledge of possible
applications– They can be ‘enthusiastic’ (biased)
Forecasting by Analogy
A considerable amount of guesswork…
• Is nanotechnology like semiconductors?
• Or like biotechnology
• Or like something else altogether?
Trend Extrapolation
• Do all good things come to an end?
• Progress as a result of the passage of time versus progress as the result of returns to effort
• Predicting progress in complementary technologies (variations on the straight razor)
Technological Exhaustion
• Performance is ultimately constrained by physical limits, for example:– Sailing ships & the power of the wind– Copper wire & transmission capability– Semiconductors & the speed of the electron