technology preparedness in achieving ndc...

Technology Preparedness in

achieving NDC targets

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

India’s Nationally Determined Contributions

• Reduce emissions intensity per unit GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030

• Achieve 40% share of fossil-free capacity in electricity mix

• Create an additional carbon sink equivalent to 2.5-3 Gt of carbon dioxide


Decoding NDC


Decoding NDC


Emission Intensity of Energy

Supply Side

Energy Intensity of GDP

Demand Side

• Cooking -

- Shift from Biomass to LPG, CNG and Electricity

• Transport –

- Shift from hydrocarbons to electricity and biofuels

• Power -

- Renewable Energy, More efficient thermal power plants



0.21

0.18

0.22

0.28

0.10

0.16

0.22

0.28

0.34

0.40

2005 2007 2010 2020 2030

kgC

O2

e/k

Wh

(Prim

ary

)

Historic IESS aggressive IESS max clean & RE

NDC BAU EV/IC


0.1851

0.16390.1579 0.153 0.1496 0.1469

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.15

0.19

0.23

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kW

h(P

rim

ary

)/IN

R

CO2/GDP @-33% CO2/GDP @-35% Historic trend

Objective to achieve NDC


NDC Framework – Technology Needs


NDC

Emission Intensity of Energy

- Coal- Natural Gas- Solar- Wind- Hydro- Nuclear

SUPPLY

Energy Intensity of GDP

- Agriculture- Buildings- Industries- Transport

DEMAND

- Energy Storage- Grid Infrastructure

Supporting Infrastructure

Technology Needs –

Supply Side

Solar


~3.4 GW cell & ~8.4 GW module manufacturing

No Manufacturing

• Solar installed capacity - ~14 GW

• PV modules mainly imported ( ~85% from China)

• Domestic modules not cost competitive

Solar PV – Indigenous Manufacturing


• Option 1: Import wafer

• Option 2 : Import cell

• Option 3: Vertically integrated plant

• Rs 10,000 Crore for 2 GW plant, 0.0

7.5

15.0

22.5

30.0

DCR SA VI Chinese

INR

/Wp

Depreciation

Interest Working capitalInterest Term LoanS&G, Overheads, R&D

O&M, Insurance

LabourEnergyRaw Material

Cost comparison for domestic vs Imported module

DCR - Wafer imported for cellSA - Cell imported for moduleVI - Only MG-Si imported

DCR = Domestic Content Requirement ; SA= Stand-alone; VI= Vertically integrated

Source: Feasibility analysis for c-Si PV manufacturing in India. CSTEP Policy Brief, 2017.

Wind


Installed Capacity: 32.7 GW

Target by 2022 60 GW

Target by 2030 (NDC) 100 GW

Technology

Needs

Material Needs

Blades Mostly available;

• Raw Material

Imported

• Supply chain

constraints

Tower Completely available • Available;

Gear Box

Casting and Forging

facilities for Higher

capacities

• High-grade Carburised

steel

• Moderately available

Bearings Currently Imported -

GeneratorAvailable, but energy

intensive;

• Rare earth metals Nd

and Dy alloys for

permanent magnets

• Annealed copper

strips for conductors


Supporting Infrastructure

Supporting Infrastructure (Energy Storage)


Storage type ChallengesSuitable

Applications

Status of Manufacturing

(India)

Pumped hydroHigh gestation period; high

capex; environmental concerns

Grid-scale

balancing

Available

(Installed capacity = 4.8 GW)

Flow battery Low power density; high cost Mini-grids Absent

Advanced Pb

acid

Medium power density; toxicity

issues with Pb

Rooftop, Telecom,

Mini-grids

Mostly present , apart from

separator in VRLA batteries

Li ionHigh cost; no Li reserves in

India

Grid-scale

intermittency, EVAbsent in large scale

LIB : Economics of Indigenization


• 50 GWh LIB plant

• Capital Cost: $ 4.6 Billion

• Battery Cost: $ 148 per kWh

• Present global cost: $ 230 per kWh

Source: CSTEP Policy Brief

Supporting Infrastructure (Grid)


Technology Sub components Application

Technology availability and

deployment availability in

India

Power Electronic Devices

Converters for HVDC

Convert RE power to grid-compatible

power

Form critical component of HVDC lines

Commercially available

FACTS and D-FACTS Enhance grid stability/controllabilityTechnology not available but

deployment available

Transmission network

Different types of conductors like ACSR,

AAAC, Zebra, Moose, Bersimis and

transformers

To transmit power Commercially available

Protection Relays, Switchgear To maintain grid stability Commercially available

Power quality

Harmonic filters, Dynamic voltage restorer

(DVR), Unified power quality

conditioner(UPQC)

To maintain power quality in the gridTechnology not available but


Smart meters Monitoring demand/consumptionAutomate metering & billing

Improve demand estimationCommercially available

Reactive power management Capacitors & Reactors Maintain voltage limits of the grid Commercially available

Monitoring Systems

SCADA/EMS Steady state view of the power System Commercially available

WAMS /Phasor Measurement UnitsDynamic real time measurements and

visualization of power system

Technology not available but



Demand Side

Industry

• Cement & Steel : India compares with the best

• Recyclability and Reusability

• Solar based process heating

• Waste Heat Recovery Systems


Source: GNR, WBCSD 2014

3066

3513

0

975

1,950

2,925

3,900

4,875

India USA Germany EU28 BrazilChina + Korea + JapanWORLD

SE

C (

MJ/t

clin

ke

r)

SEC (MJ/t clinker)

Buildings ( AC and HVAC)

• Space cooling demand - ~10% in 2030

• Improve SEER of AC in India

- Compressor Efficiency

- Variable Speed Drives in compressor

- Heat exchanger efficiency

• Shift to Low GWP Refrigerants

• Vapour absorption refrigeration systems


ODP

(tR 11/t)

GWP

(tCO2/t)

Market

Share (%)

R-22 0.055 1810 90%

R-410A 0 2088 8.5%

R-32 0 677 1%

R-290 0 3.3 0.5%

Source: LBNL and CSTEP

Transport

• Electric Vehicles

- Battery is imported!

- Need to consider indigenous manufacturing

• Biofuels

- Next generation ethanol Technologies


Source: GGGI & CSTEP “Electric Buses in India: Technology, Policy and Benefits”

Thank You


ORGANIZATION LOGO

Back Up Stuff


ORGANIZATION LOGO

Energy Supply 2030


Commercial Biomass

4%

Non-commercial

Biomass2%

Coal56%Nuclear

5%

Solar2%

Wind1%

Hydro2%

Natural Gas8%

Oil20%

Total Primary Energy Supply

13195 TWh Biomass3%

Coal51%

Diesel2%

Gas3%

Hydro10%

Nuclear4%

Solar15%

Wind12%

Electricity Generation Capacity: 795 GW

Nuclear

• Important source of clean baseload power

• Current Capacity ~ 7,000 MW

• But, possibility to increase to 30,000 MW

• Technology Requirement

Indigenous pressurized heavy water reactors

Imported Light Water reactors


Coal

• Shift to Super-critical and Ultra

Super Critical boilers

• Coal Beneficiation

Improve Station Heat Rate

Improvements in Steam Cycle; Turbine

Efficiency

• Installation of Pollution Control

Technologies

Scrubbers, ESP & SCR


Subcritical, 0.7662

Supercritical, 0.233

Ultra supercritical,

0.0007

Total Capacity (2016)

188GW

Supporting Infrastructure (Grid)


Intervention Status Market Stage

Roof top solar

PV • Installed/target ~ 0.8/40 GWp (target by 2022) Mature

Electric

Vehicles

• Target ~ 6 – 7 million vehicle sales by 2020

• Aims to sell only electric vehicles by 2030Emerging

Electricity based

cooking

• 40% of population depends on solid bio mass for

fuel

• 50% of LPG needs imported

• MoP plans to reduce oil imports by 10% from 2014 -

15 levels by 2022

Nascent

Solar PV – Emerging Technologies


Process Ingot Wafer Cell

Technology Diamond Wire Saw PERC Gas to Wafer Shingling Bifacial

Disruptive

PotentialHigh Medium High Medium High

Maturity Level Medium Infancy Infancy

Source: SERIIUS, CSTEP

Agriculture

• Technology – not a bottleneck

• Precision FARMING for optimising water use

- Use of Artificial Intelligence

- Drip Irrigation


Scenario 2030

Energy Demand 2030


Residential

15%

Industry

46%

Transport

22%

Agriculture

6%

Commercial

11%

Final Energy Demand – 8296 TWh

Source: QoL for All (CSTEP) and IESS 2047

Lighting and Cooking

• Technology is not a

bottleneck

• Need enabling POLICY

framework


8%

50%

25%

8%

9%

35%

10%

55%

0% 15% 30% 45% 60%

Rural

Urban

Penetration LevelsCooking Fuel Share - 2030

Source: QoL for All (CSTEP) and IESS 2047

LIB plants Worldwide


Manufacturers Capacity

(GWh)

LG Chem 1.2

Loitech 1.5

Nissan AESC 5

BYD 6

Tesla (Planned) 50

India (CSTEP

Study)

50

0

75

150

225

300

375

LG Chem Loitech NissanAESC

BYD Tesla(Planned)

CSTEPStudy

$ M

illoin

per

Gw

h

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