technology roadmaps

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http://www.sric-bi.com From Explorer to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans From Explorer to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans Trieste: November 26, 2008 Robert Thomas, Ph.D. Principal SRI Consulting Business Intelligence

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Page 1: Technology Roadmaps

http://www.sric-bi.com

From Explorer™ to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans

From Explorer™ to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans

Trieste: November 26, 2008

Robert Thomas, Ph.D.Principal

SRI Consulting Business Intelligence

Page 2: Technology Roadmaps

1

SRI Consulting Business IntelligenceSRI Consulting Business Intelligence

StrategyExecutionIntelligence

IdeaGeneration

StrategyDevelopment

Scanning, Monitoring, and Other Intelligence Solutions

Opportunity Discovery

Scenario Planning/StrategyCommercialization

Consumer DemandTechnology and Market Assessment

CONSULTING SERVICES

Roadmapping

SYNDICATED RESEARCH PROGRAMS

Scan™Explorer

Consumer Financial DecisionsVALS™

Virtual Worlds

• Aramco• Auto Mfgs: US, Japan,

EU• Best Buy• Chevron• Consumer Products• Consumer Electronics• Eastman Chemical• ExxonMobil• Intevep• ITRI• L’Oreal• Motorola

• Microsoft

• Nalco• NRC (Canada)

• PDVSA

• SABIC• Samsung

• Statoil• Shell

• TVA

• U.S. Government• Weyerhaeuser

RepresentativeRepresentativeClientsClients

Services AddressServices AddressMarkets and TechnologyMarkets and Technology

Key services and programs

• Syndicated Research• More than 300 clients worldwide

Page 3: Technology Roadmaps

2

• What are technology roadmaps?• How do I make one?• What would I do if I had one?• Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping• Some SRIC-BI project examples

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

Page 4: Technology Roadmaps

3

What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap?What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap?

• A road map sets out the landscape• It shows us a number of different paths we

can take depending on the starting point• Too many paths for any one person or

company to take simultaneously• We must make a choice depending on where

we want to go and our objectives• The pathway we end up choosing will depend

on a number of external and internal considerations

• Considerations such as:

The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one

the enablingtechnology

the traffic

the weather

Page 5: Technology Roadmaps

4

Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the Best RouteWhere You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the Best Route

• There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations

• Some pathways may be shorter or better than others• Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice

Page 6: Technology Roadmaps

5

Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains CorrectOnce the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct

• Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible…

• …But monitoring progress along the route and potential events is advisable

• Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for becomes a key capability

• Knowing……….

How to resolve conflicting signs

When a change in technology is required

What the showstoppers are!

Page 7: Technology Roadmaps

6

Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually Different from a Road Map…Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually Different from a Road Map…

• Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity, an application and the associated technologies.

• Time is the major axis and a key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities

• The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity

• A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

Now 2 Years 5 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Pathway Milestone

• Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure progress

Page 8: Technology Roadmaps

7

…In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different Forms…In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different Forms

• Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus

• The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks

• The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and markets

• These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind.

TechnologyTime

Functionalityor metric

Unknown solutions: roadblocksSource: ITRS

Page 9: Technology Roadmaps

8

At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic Technology RoadmapsAt SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic Technology Roadmaps

• We mean that the roadmap is more than just about technology

• The roadmap must outline the products and services, within the opportunity, that businesses or consumers would actually buy

• It must relate product and services to functional requirements and/or technologies

• It must describe key business considerations that help us decide what is the right pathway

The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here?

Industry-Level Roadmap DevelopmentIndustry-Level Roadmap Development

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Page 10: Technology Roadmaps

9

How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First Create a Profile of the OpportunityHow To Make a Technology Roadmap: First Create a Profile of the Opportunity

• First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity:

— What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services?— What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve?— What are the critical success factors and other business considerations?— What are the key uncertainties?

• In project work, SRIC-BI typically uses a standard profile template• Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service

evolution and technology hurdles.

OPPORTUNITY DESCRIPTION

• Need• Products/services• Markets• Value chain

Business Attractiveness• Potential revenue • Profitability• Competition• Regulations• Entry barriers• R&D requirements• Risk

Key Success Factors• Business model• Alliances/partners• Level of service required• Technology• Channels• Manufacturing• Marketing

ANALYSIS

Page 11: Technology Roadmaps

10

From Profile to Technology RoadmapFrom Profile to Technology Roadmap

• The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap• In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product,

market and technology progression and timing• Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling

technologies are ready!!!

Opportunity Profile

Technologies &Business Considerations

Technologies &Business Considerations

Products/Services& Functions

Industry-Level Roadmap DevelopmentIndustry-Level Roadmap Development

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Products/ Services 1

A B C

Products/ Services 1

A B C

Products/ Services 2Products/ Services 2Products/Services

A B C

Technologies1..…..2..…..3..….

Necessary Features/Functions1..…….2.……..3. ….

BusinessConsiderations1..…..2..…..3. ….

Page 12: Technology Roadmaps

11

Example Industry-Level RoadmapExample Industry-Level Roadmap

• Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated Enterprise Information Systems

• Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business considerations

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNowBusiness

Considerations

Products/Services

Function

Technologies

B5B2

B6

B10 B17 B75B71 B74

B30B31

B32 B40B33

B41B34B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38B39

B7B8

B50 B54B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58B60

B14B61

B67

B68

B18B83

B84B93

B22B94

B95

B100

B114B115

B116B112B113

B108B110

B111 B118

B47B48B49

B11B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87B86B85

B90B89

B88

B91

B92 B97B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16B77

B15B12

B80B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

Industry Roadmap

Page 13: Technology Roadmaps

12

From Industry Roadmap to Company PathwayFrom Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway

• First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options• Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move

forward: to get from A to B• When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out

what we need to consider to make the decision• Business consideration examples might include:

— A missing core competence— A market uncertainty— A competitive threat or critical success factor

• The company pathway and milestones chart the company’s course

• Signposts are set up to make sure we are on track and don’t need to change course

• Programs like SRIC-BI’s Explorer can help with signpost monitoring

Pathway

Milestone

Yes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap (Pathway)

Page 14: Technology Roadmaps

13

Roadmap Development RecapRoadmap Development Recap

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNowBusiness

Considerations

Products/Services

Function

Technologies

B5B2

B6

B10 B17 B75B71 B74

B30B31

B32 B40B33

B41B34B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38B39

B7B8

B50 B54B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58B60

B14B61

B67

B68

B18B83

B84B93

B22B94

B95

B100

B114B115

B116B112B113

B108B110

B111 B118

B47B48B49

B11B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87B86B85

B90B89

B88

B91

B92 B97B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16B77

B15B12

B80B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

Industry Roadmap

Business Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow

Products/Services

Function

Technologies

B5B2

B6

B10 B17 B75B71 B74

B30B31

B32 B40B33

B41B34B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38B39

B7B8

B50 B54B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58B60

B14B61

B67

B68

B18B83

B84B93

B22B94

B95

B100

B114B115

B116B112B113

B108B110

B111 B118

B47B48B49

B11B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87B86B85

B90B89

B88

B91

B92 B97B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16B77

B15B12

B80B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Business Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow

Products/Services

Function

Technologies

B5B2

B6

B10 B17 B75B71 B74

B30B31

B32 B40B33

B41B34B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38B39

B7B8

B50 B54B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58B60

B14B61

B67

B68

B18B83

B84B93

B22B94

B95

B100

B114B115

B116B112B113

B108B110

B111 B118

B47B48B49

B11B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87B86B85

B90B89

B88

B91

B92 B97B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16B77

B15B12

B80B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Project

Example

Industry Roadmaps• Set out key business considerations,

products/services, functions, and technologies for a potential opportunity for commercialization

• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)

Company Path• Selected strategy elements--business

considerations, products/services, functions, and technologies over time

• Describes important business considerations and products/services, etc. to be created

• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored

Page 15: Technology Roadmaps

14

Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it?Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it?

• Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must lead to action

• Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies

• A road map analogy again:— A road map helps you chart your journey— An action plan sets out:

– Checking the weather before you start– Filling up the car with gas– Putting the snow tires on– Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog………

— Some actions may be more of a priority than others!

Page 16: Technology Roadmaps

15

Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions Have No Value)Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions Have No Value)

• Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to execute the pathway (strategy).

• Priority (short term) actions are highlighted.• Key monitoring elements and signposts are described

B2

Products/Services

Functions/ Technologies & Other Capabilities

BusinessConsiderations(signposts)

Now 5 Years 10 Years3 Years1 Years

B1B3

B4

P3P1P5

T4

P2

T6T7

P4

T5T3

T2T1

Action Roadmap

Continuous monitoring or improvementLeads to next generationContinuous monitoring or improvementContinuous monitoring or improvementLeads to next generationLeads to next generation

Priority ActionsPriority Actions

B1: Verify need and initial targetB2: Monitor key threatsP1: Design and bundle initial product/service P2: Test customer acceptance

Example

Pathway

Milestone

Yes

This way

No Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap

PathwayPathway

MilestoneMilestone

Yes

This way

No SignpostYes

This way

No Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap

Page 17: Technology Roadmaps

16

Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service DevelopmentRoadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service Development

• The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and project, but two obvious different cases exist:

1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service development

2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio

• In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close examination of the business considerations

— Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance

— Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization

— In such cases as this, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology alliances can be easily formed

Page 18: Technology Roadmaps

17

Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology PortfolioRoadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio

• For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing future technology concepts and other capabilities

• Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a technology portfolio

• Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering

Products &Services

Techs &

Other capabilities

Product a

Product b

Product c

Product d

Product e

Product f

Service a

Service b

Service c

Service d

Service e

Service f

Technology a X X X

Technology b X X

Technology c X X X X X X X

Technology e X X X X X X

Capability 1 X X

Capability 2 X X X X X X X

Capability 3 X X X X X X

Capability 4 X X X X X X X

Industry Level Roadmap 1

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Industry Level Roadmap 2

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Industry Level Roadmap 3

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Industry Level Roadmap 4

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Industry Level Roadmap 5

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Industry Level Roadmap 6

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

Now 5 Years 10 Years

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Other Capabilities Distribution ChannelsCustomer acceptance assessment system

Multiple Product/Service RoadmapsTechnology Concept Analysis and Selection

Page 19: Technology Roadmaps

18

Roadmap Development RecapRoadmap Development Recap

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNowBusiness

Considerations

Products/Services

Function

Technologies

B5B2

B6

B10 B17 B75B71 B74

B30B31

B32 B40B33

B41B34B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38B39

B7B8

B50 B54B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58B60

B14B61

B67

B68

B18B83

B84B93

B22B94

B95

B100

B114B115

B116B112B113

B108B110

B111 B118

B47B48B49

B11B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87B86B85

B90B89

B88

B91

B92 B97B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16B77

B15B12

B80B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

Industry Roadmap

Business Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow

Products/Services

Function

Technologies

B5B2

B6

B10 B17 B75B71 B74

B30B31

B32 B40B33

B41B34B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38B39

B7B8

B50 B54B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58B60

B14B61

B67

B68

B18B83

B84B93

B22B94

B95

B100

B114B115

B116B112B113

B108B110

B111 B118

B47B48B49

B11B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87B86B85

B90B89

B88

B91

B92 B97B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16B77

B15B12

B80B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Business Considerations

(Signposts)

B103

B1

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow

Products/Services

Function

Technologies

B5B2

B6

B10 B17 B75B71 B74

B30B31

B32 B40B33

B41B34B35

B28

B42

B29

B44

B105

B19

B23

B27

B26B25

1 YrB3B4

B45B117

B36

B37

B38B39

B7B8

B50 B54B51

B52 B56 B57

B53 B55

B58B60

B14B61

B67

B68

B18B83

B84B93

B22B94

B95

B100

B114B115

B116B112B113

B108B110

B111 B118

B47B48B49

B11B9

B59 B63

B64

B66

B62

B72

B69

B70

B87B86B85

B90B89

B88

B91

B92 B97B96

B21

B101

B104B106

B16B77

B15B12

B80B79

B20 B99

B82

N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-

B200

Company Path

Example

Industry Roadmaps• Set out key business considerations,

products/services, functions, and technologies for a potential opportunity for commercialization

• Provide a basis for selected strategy (path)

Company Path• Selected strategy elements--business

considerations, products/services, functions, and technologies over time

• Describes important business considerations and products/services, etc. to be created

• Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored

Actions• Displays and describes required actions to

execute company pathways• Highlights priority actions

3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 YrsNow 1 Yr

BusinessConsiderations

(Signposts)

Products/Services

Functions/Technologies

Actions

Z13

Z8

Z3

Z11

Z12

Z2

Z15Z14

Z1

Z16

Z17

Z10Z9

Z18

Z7

Z5

Z6

Z4

Page 20: Technology Roadmaps

19

• What are technology roadmaps?• How do I make one?• What would I do if I had one?• Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping• Some project examples from SRIC-BI

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

Page 21: Technology Roadmaps

20

What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the Context of Explorer?What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the Context of Explorer?

• Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base• The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for

breadth— Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology

development, for many products, industries and markets— Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies

• In contrast, a custom roadmap is created with an individual organization in mind

• However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis from which to develop a customized roadmap

— To aid in developing the opportunity profiles— To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors— To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such

projects— To identify important areas to monitor

Page 22: Technology Roadmaps

21

SRIC-BI’s Explorer Program is a Valuable Source To Create the Initial Opportunity ProfilesSRIC-BI’s Explorer Program is a Valuable Source To Create the Initial Opportunity Profiles

MonitoringSystem

Customized Strategic Technology Roadmaps

2003-4

PDP GrowthRate from

2001 to 2002

Triode H igh-Definition Full-Color Prototype

In 2002

Delay to 2004

Low (high cost)

High (low cost)

PDP GrowthRate from

2003 to 2004

Low or Slows

High or Grows

2001-2 2003-4

PDP GrowthRate from

2001 to 2002

Triode H igh-Definition Full-Color Prototype

In 2002

Delay to 2004

Triode H igh-Definition Full-Color Prototype

In 2002

Delay to 2004

Low (high cost)

High (low cost)

PDP GrowthRate from

2003 to 2004

Low or Slows

High or Grows

2001-2

Signposts

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

Now 2 Years 5 Years

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

OpportunityProfiles

Milestones

Explorer’s Charts of Commercialization

Opportunities: ApplicationsOpportunities: Applications

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Smart M irrors

Quic k Tim e™ and a dec ompress or

are needed to s ee th is p ic ture.

Self-Repairing Coatings

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Vibration and

Noise Control

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

NDTE

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Vibration Control

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Actuators

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Structural Monitoring

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Minimally

Invasive

Surgery

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Drug Delivery

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Medical Analysis

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Valves

and Seals

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Earthquake Dampers

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Noise Control

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Motors and Actuators

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Light and

Heat Control

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Fasteners

Industrial, Power

and Construction

Industry Current Applications

Emerging Applications

Within 5 Years Within 10 Years

Building Blocks of the Technology

• Mobile AutonomousSwarms— Military (Smart Dust)— Industrial-Plant

Maintenance— Agriculture (Field

Analysis)— Resource Extraction

• Smart Spaces— Office Networks— Inventory Management

— Telecommunications— Transportation

(Commercial, Private)— Home Networks

(ApplianceCollaboration,Security)

• Personal Networks— Health Care (Privacy,

Remote Monitoring)— Entertainment (Virtual

Environments)

Systems

• Network Infrastructure— PAN, LAN, WAN

• Software Architecture— Discovery— Intelligent Software Agents— Context Awareness— Operating Systems— Scalability

• Standards— Network and Communication

Protocols— Application and Presentation

ProtocolsEnabling Components

• Basic Node Components— Processor— Power Source— Communication

Capability (GPSTransmitters, RFID,Sensors)

— Embedded Software

• Interface Nodes— Input Devices (Mouse,

Stylus, SpeechRecognition)

— Biometrics— Software Agents

• Work Nodes— PDAs— Home Appliances— Robots

Applications

Commercial Development Parameters

Required Resources

• Partnering Capabilities

• IT Expertise

• Spectrum Licenses

• Funding for Researchand Development

Regulatory Factors

• Privacy

• Security

• LiabilityCompeting Technologies

• Current Computing Environment

• Human Tools

General Constraints

• Value Capture

• Standards and Interoperability

• Storage and Scalability

• Cost

Demand Factors

• Military and Government

• Industrial/Commercial

• Consumer

• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine toMachine, Machine to Environment)

• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,Wi-Fi)

• Miniature Power Sources

• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing

• Software Architecture

• Identification of Nodes

54

32

1

Synergistic Technologies

Smart Spaces

PrivacyHuman-

ComputerInterfaces

Security

IntelligentAgents

SoftwareProductivity

Standards andInteroperability

ContextAwareness

BusinessModels

Medium

High

Low

Impact

MediumLow High

Uncertainty

WirelessNetworks

Issues and Uncertainties

Commercial Development Parameters

Required Resources

• Partnering Capabilities

• IT Expertise

• Spectrum Licenses

• Funding for Researchand Development

Regulatory Factors

• Privacy

• Security

• LiabilityCompeting Technologies

• Current Computing Environment

• Human Tools

General Constraints

• Value Capture

• Standards and Interoperability

• Storage and Scalability

• Cost

Demand Factors

• Military and Government

• Industrial/Commercial

• Consumer

• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine toMachine, Machine to Environment)

• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,Wi-Fi)

• Miniature Power Sources

• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing

• Software Architecture

• Identification of Nodes

54

32

1

Synergistic Technologies

Smart Spaces

PrivacyHuman-

ComputerInterfaces

Security

IntelligentAgents

SoftwareProductivity

Standards andInteroperability

ContextAwareness

BusinessModels

Medium

High

Low

Impact

MediumLow High

Uncertainty

WirelessNetworks

Issues and Uncertainties

Implications

Implications of Commercialization

A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge inthe industry.

A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.

A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable materialfeatures, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.

A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.

C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.

• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization

Emerging Commercial Opportunities

• Growth in GMO-Production Technology

• Application for Nanotechnologies

• High-Throughput ScreeningImprovements

• Progress of Combinatorial Methods

• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-FreeSynthesis

• Growth in GMO-Production Technology

• Product Formulation Improved byBiopolymers

• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foodsand Nutraceuticals

• Consumer Preferences Move towardConvenience Foods and Functional andNutraceutical Foods

ANew technologies will lead

to novel biopolymers.

BBiopolymers enhance foodqualities and production.

Implications

Implications of Commercialization

A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge inthe industry.

A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.

A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable materialfeatures, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.

A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.

C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.

• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization

Emerging Commercial Opportunities

• Growth in GMO-Production Technology

• Application for Nanotechnologies

• High-Throughput ScreeningImprovements

• Progress of Combinatorial Methods

• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-FreeSynthesis

• Growth in GMO-Production Technology

• Product Formulation Improved byBiopolymers

• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foodsand Nutraceuticals

• Consumer Preferences Move towardConvenience Foods and Functional andNutraceutical Foods

ANew technologies will lead

to novel biopolymers.

BBiopolymers enhance foodqualities and production.

Opportunities: Business EnvironmentOpportunities: Business EnvironmentEnabling Components Applications

Defense Systems• BAE Systems• Northrop Grumman• Raytheon• United Technologies• EADS NV

Key R&D and Funding• Qinetiq• DARPA• U.S. Navy• U.S. Army• SRI International• MIT• NASA• ORNL Aircraft

• Boeing• Airbus• Bombardier• Dassault• Saab AB• Hindustan Aerospace

• Lockheed Martin• General Dynamics• Textron• Thales

Aerospace Components• Rolls-Royce• Smiths Industries• General Electric• Siemens AG• Textron

Magnetostrictives• Newlands Scientific• Etrema Products

Shape-Memory Alloys• Adaptamat• Memory Metalle• NDC• Memry Corp.• Dynalloy, Inc.• Heraeus Materials

Smart Polymers• Cornerstone• Bayer MaterialScience

Piezoelectrics• Many Suppliers

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Research and

Development

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Smart Materials and

Components

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Parts and Systems

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Aircraft, Vehicles,

and Weapons

Players

Systems

• Network Infrastructure— Cisco— Siemens

• Software Architecture— SRI International— IBM Corporation— HP Laboratories— PARC

• Standards— Bluetooth SIG— IETF— IEEE

AddedValue

Enabling Components

• Basic Node Components— Intel— Motorola— Hitachi

• Interface Nodes— Speech Works— Philips Speech Processing— Nuance

• Work Nodes— Palm— Sunbeam— Matsushita Electric

• Mobile Autonomous Swarms— Crossbow Technologies— Xybernaut

• Smart Spaces— Display Edge Technology— Symbol Technologies

— Nokia— NTT DoCoMo

• Personal Networks— Sensatex— Sony— MIT Media Lab

Applications

Players

Systems

• Network Infrastructure— Cisco— Siemens

• Software Architecture— SRI International— IBM Corporation— HP Laboratories— PARC

• Standards— Bluetooth SIG— IETF— IEEE

AddedValue

Enabling Components

• Basic Node Components— Intel— Motorola— Hitachi

• Interface Nodes— Speech Works— Philips Speech Processing— Nuance

• Work Nodes— Palm— Sunbeam— Matsushita Electric

• Mobile Autonomous Swarms— Crossbow Technologies— Xybernaut

• Smart Spaces— Display Edge Technology— Symbol Technologies

— Nokia— NTT DoCoMo

• Personal Networks— Sensatex— Sony— MIT Media Lab

Applications

Page 23: Technology Roadmaps

22

Roadmapping Example: CIGS Solar Cells

Roadmapping Example: CIGS Solar Cells

Page 24: Technology Roadmaps

23

• The client, a government-funded laboratory, wanted to develop its strategy for a particular type of solar cell: copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS)

• CIGS has one of the highest efficiencies of any thin-film solar cell• The aims of the project were several fold:

— Profile the industry– Understand the players, their technological approaches and business plans– Assess strengths of the patents of leading players (SRI support)– Develop an estimate of CIGS production capacity over 10 years

— Assess the major cost contributions for CIGS solar cell production— Develop an industry roadmap showing major approaches, and identify a

number of strategic choices (pathways)

Project Outline: CIGS Solar CellsProject Outline: CIGS Solar Cells

Page 25: Technology Roadmaps

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SRIC-BI’s Explorer Technology Map for Photovoltaics Provided a Useful Starting PointSRIC-BI’s Explorer Technology Map for Photovoltaics Provided a Useful Starting Point

CIGS = Copper Indium Gallium DiselenideSource: SRIC-BI

PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY ROADMAP: FOCUS ON CIGS

2015Category

Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops

Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops

2010

Crystalline Silicon Cells and Modules

Organic and Nano-Based

Cells and Modules

2006

Thin Film Semiconductor

Cells and Modules Off-Grid Industrial and

Remote Power Off-Grid Industrial and

Remote Power

Battery RechargersBattery Rechargers

Products/Service

Opportunities

BusinessConsiderations

(CDP)

Regional and NationalEnergy Policies

Regional and NationalEnergy PoliciesRising Energy Demand

And CostsRising Energy Demand

And Costs

StandardsStandards

Energy StorageEnergy Storage

RecyclingRecyclingPolysilicon SupplyPolysilicon Supply

Areas to Monitor

Government and StateSubsidies and IncentivesGovernment and State

Subsidies and Incentives

Renewable EnergyTechnologies

Renewable EnergyTechnologies

Rural AreaFinancing

Rural AreaFinancing

Organic Solar Cells Organic Solar Cells

Technologies

FlexibleSubstratesFlexible

SubstratesVacuumDepositionVacuum

Deposition

Nonvacuum ProcessesNonvacuum Processes

Roll-Roll ProcessingRoll-Roll ProcessingNanoparticle ManufactureNanoparticle Manufacture

Ribbon/SheetRibbon/Sheet

Crystalline Silicon WafersCrystalline Silicon Wafers

Markets

ClothingClothing

MilitaryMilitaryAutomotiveAutomotive

Off-Grid and Industrial and Remote PowerOff-Grid and Industrial and Remote Power

Grid-ConnectedGrid-Connected

Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics

Nanotechnology Nanotechnology

EncapsulantsEncapsulants

ChinaChina

Advances in Manufacturing Advances in Manufacturing

Water Pumps Water Pumps

Cathodic Protection Cathodic

Protection

Road Signs Road Signs Marine Buoys Marine Buoys

Telecommunications Telecommunications

Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops

Residential and CommercialBuilding Rooftops

Satellites and SpacecraftSatellites and Spacecraft

BIPVBIPV

BIPVBIPV

Rural Electrification Rural Electrification

Solar Parks Solar Parks

CPV SystemsCPV Systems

Solar Parks Solar Parks

CPV SystemsCPV Systems

Battery Rechargers Battery Rechargers Textilesand Fabrics

Textilesand Fabrics

MEMS/SensorsMEMS/Sensors

MEMS/SensorsMEMS/Sensors

Textiles and FabricsTextiles and Fabrics BIPVBIPV

Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics

ConsumerElectronicsConsumerElectronics

Thin-Film SemiconductorsThin-Film Semiconductors Dye-SensitizedSolar Cells

Dye-SensitizedSolar Cells

PolymerSolar CellsPolymer

Solar Cells

QDSolar Cells

QDSolar CellsPolymer Transparent

ElectrodesPolymer Transparent

Electrodes III-V Solar Cells

III-V Solar Cells

Thin-Film x-SiThin-Film x-Si

SpaceSpace

Thermo-PVThermo-PV

Semiconductor IndustrySemiconductor Industry

Remote PowerRemote Power

• CIGS is a thin-film solar cell

• The technology implicates a number of enabling technologies

– Vacuum deposition– Low cost nanoparticle synthesis and

wet chemical deposition– Roll-to-roll processing– Rigid and flexible substrates– Encapsulation

Page 26: Technology Roadmaps

25

Additional Research Created a More In-Depth Profile and Then Client-Focused Industry RoadmapAdditional Research Created a More In-Depth Profile and Then Client-Focused Industry Roadmap

• The industry roadmaps contains the major approaches• It forms the basis for selecting a pathway

Page 27: Technology Roadmaps

26

Profiling is a Major Input to the Roadmap: In This Case it Also Covered Market Development and CostingProfiling is a Major Input to the Roadmap: In This Case it Also Covered Market Development and Costing

Page 28: Technology Roadmaps

27

From the Industry-Level Roadmap, Different Pathways Were DevelopedFrom the Industry-Level Roadmap, Different Pathways Were Developed

Page 29: Technology Roadmaps

28

Further Research Was Undertaken to Help the Selection of Strategic OptionsFurther Research Was Undertaken to Help the Selection of Strategic Options

• In this project, each of the strategic options, or pathway options, was accompanied by the following:

— A description of the strategic focus

— Associated risk profile — Short and medium term R&D

goals — Potential alliance partners— Areas to monitor

Page 30: Technology Roadmaps

29

Roadmapping Example: Waste Heat Recovery

Roadmapping Example: Waste Heat Recovery

Page 31: Technology Roadmaps

30

• “For a typical car with an internal combustion engine, around 70%to 80% of energy produced by the engine is wasted as heat…”

• The client, an automotive company, wanted to develop an industryroadmap and strategy (pathway) for waste heat recovery (e.g. exhaust)

• The client wanted to better understand the competitive environment and state-of-the-art, and commissioned SRIC-BI to:

— Study activities and approaches to heat-recovery technologies— Understand the current industry view of the commercialization of heat-

recovery systems— Develop an industry-level roadmap that linked product development with

functional needs and enabling technologies.

Project Outline: Automotive Waste Heat RecoveryProject Outline: Automotive Waste Heat Recovery

Page 32: Technology Roadmaps

31

• Web and Literature Review. Conducting a literature search to build up a picture of key trends, developments; players active in the technology area; identification of industry experts

• Qualitative Patent Search. Conducting a search of patents to identify technologies and players active in the area of heat recovery

• Quantitative Analysis of Papers and Patents. To provide an indication of the relative activity within each technology approach.

Patent Analysis Can Be an Input to Analyzing Players and Technology ApproachesPatent Analysis Can Be an Input to Analyzing Players and Technology Approaches

Page 33: Technology Roadmaps

32

Creating Profiles of Key Players Helps Understand the CompetitionCreating Profiles of Key Players Helps Understand the Competition

• Player profiles can help in terms of understanding technology and market development as an input to the roadmap

Page 34: Technology Roadmaps

33

Understanding Industry ViewpointsUnderstanding Industry Viewpoints

• Selected industry experts and companies can then be short listed for interview to gain further inputs to the roadmap development

Page 35: Technology Roadmaps

34

Page 36: Technology Roadmaps

35

Page 37: Technology Roadmaps

36

Technology Roadmapping Summary Technology Roadmapping Summary

Industry-Level Roadmap DevelopmentIndustry-Level Roadmap Development

Products/Services

Features/Functions

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Industry roadmaps set out the landscape, showing the options or paths that can be taken

Without action and innovation you won’t get anywhere!

The pathway sets out the route to be taken, and highlights the things that need to be monitored to stay on course

Pathway

Milestone

Yes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap (Pathway)

PathwayPathway

MilestoneMilestone

Yes

This way

No

SignpostYes

This way

No

Signpost

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Now 2 Years 5 Years

Product/Service

FunctionalRequirements

Technologies

BusinessConsiderations

Need MarketCompetitionNeed MarketCompetition

A B C

A B C

41 2 3

Yes

This way

No

Yes

This way

No

Company Roadmap (Pathway)