teck 2017 investor and analyst day
TRANSCRIPT
Investor and Analyst DayMarch 30, 2017
Introduction
Forward Looking InformationBoth these slides and the accompanying oral presentation contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private SecuritiesLitigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario) and comparable legislation in other provinces.Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”,“estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variation of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, eventsor results “may”, “could”, “should”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks,uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Teck to be materially different from any future results,performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include Adjusted EBITDA as reportedin the slides, statements relating to management’s expectations with respect to 2017 capital expenditure guidance and the components thereof, potentialEBITDA, our expectation that our Energy business unit will start contributing to EBITDA in 2018 and 2017 production and site cost guidance and the componentsthereof, benefits of our steelmaking coal operating strategy and the potential benefits of the anticipated synergies, projected strip ratios, projected 2017 totalcosts, projected 2017 truck productivity, projected 2017 mining and maintenance costs, projected 2017 sustaining capital costs, the objectives for oursteelmaking coal five year plan, the statement that steelmaking coal is a high margin business and the statement that Teck is planning to produce approximately27 million tonnes of coal for decades. These for forward-looking statements with respect to our base metals business unit include statements relating tomanagement’s expectations with respect to the goals and benefits of the base metals unit operating strategy, projected mill throughput, projected C1 unit costs,projected copper production and grade at Highland Valley and the plans to extend the mine life and enhance production at the operation, Antamina copper andzinc production guidance, CDA mill throughput and grade projection, the project projections and guidance on the “Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 Project” and“NuevaUnión Project” slides, projected throughput and grade at Red Dog, the statement that there is excellent extension potential at Red Dog, projected zinc andlead production performance at Trail and our goals for increasing value in base metals, statements relating to Fort Hills including statements relating tomanagement’s expectations with respect to production capacity and scheduling, expectations about the timing and budget to project completion and thestatement that Fort Hills is expected to generate 45 years of cash flows. These forward-looking statements relating to project delivery include the statement thatTeck is well positioned to deliver Quebrada Blanca Phase 2, including that the structure and systems are in place to ensure critical elements for success areaddressed, Teck’s expectations to demand, price, production and volatility of the commodities that we produce, as well as expectation that the energy market willbalance in 2017, WTI price expectations, anticipated energy supply shortfall, expected ramp-up time and Teck share of production relating to Fort Hills and ourapproach to market access for Fort Hills production, Teck’s long-term strategy, potential EBITDA, our expectation that our Energy business unit will startcontributing to EBITDA in 2018, the potential future growth options for Teck, projections regarding Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 copper production, costs, mine lifeand capital intensity, the benefits of our approach on NuevaUnión, projections and expectations regarding our Satellite Project, statements and expectationsregarding each of the projects included in Satellite Project, as well as the mineral resource, capital intensity and costs regarding each of our projects.Assumptions regarding Fort Hills also include the assumption that project development and funding proceed as planned, as well as assumptions noted on therelevant slides discussing Fort Hills.
These forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary materially. These statements are based ona number of assumptions, including, but not limited to, assumptions noted in the various slides and oral presentation, assumptions regarding general businessand economic conditions, interest rates, the supply and demand for, inventories of, and the level and volatility of prices of coal, zinc, copper and gold and otherprimary metals and minerals produced by Teck as well as steel, oil, natural gas and petroleum, power prices, market competition, the accuracy of Teck’s reserveand resource estimates (including with respect to size, grade and recoverability) and the geological, operational and price assumptions on which these arebased, the resolution of environmental and other proceedings, our ongoing relations with our employees and partners and joint venturers, and the future
Introduction
Forward Looking Informationoperational and financial performance of the company generally. The foregoing list of assumptions is not exhaustive. Adjusted EBITDA, potential EBITDA andfinancial metrics and ratios are based on or assume exchange rates, sales, commodity prices and production as disclosed in the footnotes associated with therelevant EBITDA metric and ratio. Assumptions regarding Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 and NuevaUnión include that the project is built and operated in accordancewith the current project plans and all permits are timely received. The foregoing list of assumptions is not exhaustive.
Events or circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially. Factors that may cause actual results to vary include, but are not limited to: factors notedin the various slides and oral presentation, unanticipated developments in business and economic conditions in the principal markets for Teck’s products or in thesupply, demand, and prices for metals and other commodities to be produced, changes in power prices, changes in interest or currency exchange rates,inaccurate geological or metallurgical assumptions (including with respect to the size, grade and recoverability of mineral or oil and gas reserves and resources),changes in taxation laws or tax authority assessing practices, legal disputes or unanticipated outcomes of legal proceedings, unanticipated operational difficulties(including failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate in accordance with specifications or expectations, cost escalation, unavailability of materials andequipment, government action or delays in the receipt of permits or government approvals, industrial disturbances or other job action, and unanticipated eventsrelated to health, safety and environmental matters), assumptions used to generate our economic analysis, decisions made by our partners or co-venturers,political events, social unrest, lack of available financing for Teck or its partners or co-venturers, and changes in general economic conditions or conditions in thefinancial markets. The amount and timing of actual capital expenditures is dependent upon, among other matters, being able to secure permits, equipment,supplies, materials and labour on a timely basis and at expected costs to enable the related capital project to be completed as currently anticipated. Fort Hills,Quebrada Blanca and NuevaUnión are jointly owned.
We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required under securities laws. Further information concerning assumptions, risks anduncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements and our business can be found in our Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31,2016, filed under our profile on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and on EDGAR (www.sec.gov) under cover of Form 40-F, and management discussion and analysisreports and other public filings filed on www.sedar.com or www.sec.gov.
Overview and StrategyMarch 30, 2017Don Lindsay, President and Chief Executive Officer
Overview and Strategy
Safety at Teck
• Improved performance across safety metrics in 2016
• High Potential Injury frequency reduced by ~50% since 2013
Next phase of Courageous Safety Leadership
rolled out across operations
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2013 2014 2015 2016
Freq
uenc
y (p
er 2
00,0
00 h
ours
wor
ked)
YTD High Potential Incident Frequency - Level 3YTD Serious High Potential Incident Frequency - Level 4YTD Potentially Fatal Occurrence Frequency - Level 5
High Potential Incident Frequency
3
Overview and Strategy
Sustainability Highlights
Indigenous Relations
• 25 new agreements in 2016; agreements in place at all operations
• Major IBA signed with Ktunaxa Nation, strengthening certainty for Elk Valley coal operations
• Three agreements reached to date for Frontier Project
Tailings Management
• Follow industry best practices
• Independent tailings review boards for all major facilities & projects
• New internal governance reviews in addition to external facility inspections
• Contributed to MAC & ICMM tailings management reviews
4
Overview and Strategy
Senior Management Update
Greg WallerSVP, Investor Relations
& Strategic Analysis
Fraser PhillipsSVP, Investor Relations
& Strategic Analysis
Retiring Joining
5
Overview and Strategy
Capitalizing on the Turn in the Cycle
6
• Record results in Q4 2016Gross Profit $2.0 billionCash Flow from Ops $1.5 billionAdjusted Net Profit1 $930 million
• Generating significant cash flow• Reducing debt • Dividend review
1. Adjusted profit attributable to shareholders. Non-GAAP financial measures. See “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of our quarterly news releases for further information.
Diversified business model
Attractive portfolio of long life assets
Low half of the cost curve
Appropriate scale
Low risk jurisdictions
Overview and Strategy
Consistent Long-Term Strategy
7
Overview and Strategy
Significant Cash Flow Generation
Potential EBITDA1
Less: Corporate
Steelmaking Coal
Copper
Zinc
1. Non-GAAP financial measures. See “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of our quarterly news releases for further information. Estimates are based on the mid-point of our2017 production guidance ranges and assume a C$/US$ exchange rate of 1.30 and our typical steelmaking coal sales mix of 40% contract and 60% spot. The steelmaking coal priceassumption is based on a combination of the Q1 2017 expected realized price of US$200 to US$215 per tonne, and an assumed quarterly contract benchmark price of US$155per tonne and an average realized price of 92% of the contract price for the balance of the year. Base metal price assumptions are based on the 2017 year to date average copper priceof US$2.60 per pound and average zinc price of US$1.25 per pound. Actual prices will vary, and operating performance and sales may vary materially for a variety of reasons, causingthese production and sales estimates to be materially incorrect. These estimates are based on numerous assumptions, and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that may causeresults to vary materially. Please see the Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Information at the beginning of this presentation for more specific information.
• Strong operating margins
• Increasing zinc production
• Significant leverage to coal, copper and zinc prices
2017 Based on Current Prices
Energy starts contributing EBITDA1 in 2018
>C$5 Billion
8
Strong platform combined with diverse portfolio of options allows us to be selective for risk/reward opportunity and timing
Overview and Strategy
Staged Growth/Value Pipeline
In Construction Pre-Sanction
EnergyBuilding a new business through partnership
Fort Hills Frontier
Lease 421
Future OptionsMedium-Term Growth Options
ZincWorld-class resource combined with integrated assets
Red DogSatellite Deposits
Cirque
Trail #2 Acid Plant
Red DogMill Optimization
Teena
CoalWell established with capital efficient value options
Elk Valley Replacement Brownfield Quintette/Mt. Duke
Elk Valley Brownfield
Neptune Terminals to >18Mtpa Coal Mountain 2
CopperStrong platform with substantial growth options
San Nicolás (Cu-Zn)
QB Phase 2 NuevaUnión Mesaba
ZafranalHVC Brownfield
Schaft Creek
Antamina Brownfield
Galore Creek
9
Overview and Strategy
Quebrada Blanca 2: Potential Tier 1 Asset
Top 15 copper producer globally‒ 300 ktpa copper equivalent production in first 5 years
Total costs (AISC) well in low half of cost curve‒ Exceptionally low strip ratio
Initial mine life 25 years with ~25% of reserves & resources‒ Optionality for expansion or much longer life
Attractive capital intensity‒ Development capital costs reduced significantly
Familiar, mining-friendly jurisdiction
10
Overview and Strategy
NuevaUnión: A New Approach to Project Development
Teck and Goldcorp have combined Relincho & El Morro projects and formed a 50/50 joint venture company• Committed to building strong, mutually
beneficial relationships with stakeholders & communities
Capital smart partnership • Shared capital, common infrastructure• Shared risk, shared rewards
Benefits of combining projects include:• Longer mine life• Lower cost, improved capital efficiency• Reduced environmental footprint• Enhanced community benefits• Greater returns over either standalone project
11
Overview and Strategy
Satellite Project: Overview
• Situation: Strong base metal (copper, zinc) growth options largely invisible to the market
• Objective: To surface the value of Teck’s copper development projects (ex-QB2 & NuevaUnión) in 3-5 years
• Routes to value realization include:‒ Prudent funding to increase certainty of
development‒ Work with development partner(s) to
advance in a timely manner‒ IPO, sell down and/or divest at the
appropriate time ‒ Build as a Teck project
• Led by Colin Joudrie, VP Business Development
Staged Growth/Value Pipeline
Future Options
ZincWorld-class resource combined with integrated assets
CopperStrong platform with substantial growth options
San Nicolás (Cu-Zn)
Mesaba
Zafranal
Schaft Creek
Galore Creek
12
Overview and Strategy
Satellite Project: 5 Quality Base Metal Assets
Galore Creek (50%)• Rare significant copper-gold-silver
deposit in developing district• High average grade; potential for
first quartile C1 costs• Substantial design and engineering
work completed in 2012
Schaft Creek (75%)• Large copper-molybdenum-gold-
silver deposit • Long mine life; potential expansion• Continue to advance value added
field work, along with desk-top engineering and optimization studies
San Nicolás (79%)• High grade, open pit operation with
3-4 year timeline to production• Low first quartile costs, offering
quick payback• 2016 drill program and scoping
study improved understanding and augmented value
Mesaba (100%) • Very large copper‐nickel sulphide
resource• In a district with long mining history• Proximity to existing infrastructure,
and opportunities for significant development synergies
• Teck developed proprietary value-added mineral processing technology
Zafranal (80%)• Highly competitive mid-sized
copper-gold deposit• Pre-feasibility study published June
2016; indicates robust economics• Advancing Feasibility and
Environmental Impact Studies in 2017-2018
Substantial resources in mining friendly jurisdictions 13
• Continuing to execute for higher production per share− No equity dilution− No operating assets sold− Investing in production growth from Fort Hills− Maintaining strong liquidity− Reducing debt & managing maturities
• Record quarterly results in Q4 2016
• Generating significant free cash flow
• Reducing debt
• High quality organic growth options
Overview and Strategy
Summary
14
FinanceMarch 30, 2017Ron Millos, SVP Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Achieved significant debt reduction
Generating significant cash flow
Disciplined capital spending
3
Finance
Financial Resources for the Future
Finance
Achieved Significant Debt Reduction
1. As at March 8, 2017.2. Proforma ratio, excluding loss on debt repurchase. Our revolving credit facility requires a debt to debt-plus-equity ratio of <50%. Non-GAAP financial measures. See “Use of Non-GAAP
Financial Measures” section of our quarterly news releases for further information.
Notes Outstanding
Current Debt Portfolio1
Public notes outstanding US$5.1B
Average coupon 5.7%
Annual interest savings ~US$55M
Weighted average term to maturity ~15 years
Debt to debt-plus-equity ratio2 ~28%
Undrawn credit facility US$3.0B
Tender offer to purchase US$1B of outstanding public notes completed on March 8, 2016
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
30/09/2015 31/12/2015 30/09/2016 31/12/2016 31/03/2017
US$
Bill
ion
4
Finance
Re-aligning Our Capital Structure
Current Dec. 31, 2012
Notes outstanding ~US$5.1B1 US$7.2BAssets $35.6B2 $34.6BEquity $17.6B2 $18.0BAdjusted EBITDA3 >$5B4 $4.3BRatios
Debt-to-debt plus equity3 ~27%1,5 29%Debt/EBITDA3 ~1.4x1,5 1.7x
1. As at March 8, 2017. 2. As at December 31, 2016.3. Non-GAAP financial measures. See “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of our quarterly news releases for further information.4. EBITDA potential in 2017. Estimates are based on the mid-point of our 2017 production guidance ranges and assume a C$/US$ exchange rate of 1.30 and our typical steelmaking coal sales mix
of 40% contract and 60% spot. The steelmaking coal price assumption is based on a combination of the Q1 2017 expected realized price of US$200 to US$215 per tonne, and an assumed quarterly contract benchmark price of US$155 per tonne and an average realized price of 92% of the contract price for the balance of the year. Base metal price assumptions are based on the 2017 year to date average copper price of US$2.60 per pound and average zinc price of US$1.25 per pound. Actual prices will vary, and operating performance and sales may vary materially for a variety of reasons, causing these production and sales estimates to be materially incorrect. These estimates are based on numerous assumptions, and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that may cause results to vary materially. Please see the Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Information at the beginning of this presentation for more specific information.
5. Proforma ratios, excluding loss on debt repurchase. Assumes a C$ to US$ exchange rate of 1.00 on December 31, 2012 and 1.34 currently.
5
Finance
Higher Margin Despite Lower Prices
6 1 Before depreciation and amortization.* The Teck Commodities Index reflects an equal weighting of steelmaking coal, copper and zinc prices, with each price rebased to 100 in 2014.
• Average commodity prices dropped 11% in 2014-2016
• 8-point margin improvement, driven by cost management program‒ Implemented in 2013‒ Focused on productivity‒ Reduced unit costs ‒ Lowered corporate costs
Gross Profit Margin1 vs. Indexed Prices
Gro
ss p
rofit
mar
gin
(%)
Teck
Com
mod
ity P
rice
Inde
x
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2014 2015 2016
Gross Profit Margin (lhs) Teck Commodities Index* (rhs)
6
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Guidance
New MineDevelopment
MajorEnhancements
Sustaining Capital
CapitalizedStripping
$M
Finance
Capital Expenditures
Total Capital Expenditures 2012-2017
7
Finance
Significant Cash Flow Generation
Potential EBITDA1
Less: Corporate
Steelmaking Coal
Copper
Zinc
1. Non-GAAP financial measures. See “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of our quarterly news releases for further information. Estimates are based on the mid-point of our2017 production guidance ranges and assume a C$/US$ exchange rate of 1.30 and our typical steelmaking coal sales mix of 40% contract and 60% spot. The steelmaking coal priceassumption is based on a combination of the Q1 2017 expected realized price of US$200 to US$215 per tonne, and an assumed quarterly contract benchmark price of US$155per tonne and an average realized price of 92% of the contract price for the balance of the year. Base metal price assumptions are based on the 2017 year to date average copper priceof US$2.60 per pound and average zinc price of US$1.25 per pound. Actual prices will vary, and operating performance and sales may vary materially for a variety of reasons, causingthese production and sales estimates to be materially incorrect. These estimates are based on numerous assumptions, and are subject to various risks and uncertainties that may causeresults to vary materially. Please see the Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Information at the beginning of this presentation for more specific information.
• Strong operating margins
• Increasing zinc production
• Significant leverage to coal, copper and zinc prices
2017 Based on Current Prices
Energy starts contributing EBITDA in 2018
>C$5 Billion
8
Finance
Tax Efficient Earnings in Canada
~$6 billion in available tax pools1, including:• $4.6B in loss carryforwards• $1.3B in Canadian Development Expenses
Applies to:• Cash income taxes in Canada
Does not apply to:• Resource taxes in Canada• Cash taxes in foreign jurisdictions
Multiples should reflect tax efficiency of earnings
1. As of December 31, 2016.9
Achieved significant debt reduction
Generating significant cash flow
Disciplined capital spending
10
Finance
Financial Resources for the Future
Business UnitsMarch 30, 2017Dale Andres, Senior Vice President, Base MetalsRobin Sheremeta, Senior Vice President, Coal
Business Units
Agenda
Introduction
Base Metals
Steelmaking Coal
3
Business Units
Safety is a Core Value
Our Key Focus Areas1. High Potential Risk Control 2. Occupational Health & Hygiene 3. Courageous Safety Leadership
We are Improving• High Potential Incidents: 12% reduction• Lost Time Injuries: 11% reduction• Total Recordable Injuries: 13% reduction
4
Business Units
>$1B of Annualized Savings…
Largest savings from mining productivity
Annualized Savings from Major Cost Reduction Program Initiatives
- $100 $200 $300 $400
Other ($22M)
Components (life/cost) ($12M)
Plan optimization ($51M)
Pricing Improvements ($26M)
Equipment Rental Savings ($28M)
Admin savings ($79M)
Idling & Energy Savings ($66M)
Consumables ($77M)
Employee Cost Reduction ($191M)
Contractors/Consultants Reduction ($216M)
Mining Productivity ($354M)
2013 Initiatives 2014 Initiatives 2015 Initiatives 2016 Initiatives
CAD$ millions
5
Business Units
“One Teck” Approach
Using common resources & shared learning to optimize assets & drive value
Our organizational structure enables collaboration, innovation & continual improvement
Driving a “One Teck” philosophy where it adds value• Safety• Tailings & water management• Truck shovel productivity• Strategic & group sourcing• Accelerated Maintenance Projects (AMP)
6
Business Units
Innovation Drives How We Manage, Improve & Grow
Manage Improve Grow• Encourage & share front
line innovation• Advanced data analytics
• Automation• Sensor-based ore sorting
• Rethinking projects‒ QB Phase 2
• Partnerships ‒ NuevaUnión
Broad portfolio of existing, emerging & future technologies
7
Business Units
Agenda
Introduction
Base Metals
Steelmaking Coal
8
Base Metals
Operating Strategy
• Stable operations– Maintain cost discipline
• Improvement priorities driven by value– Long term competitiveness
• Manage risk & seize opportunities– Advance key extension & growth projects
9
Base Metals
Continued Cost Focus in Copper
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US$
/lb
C1 Unit Costs
After by-product credits Before by-products credits
• Focused mill throughput improvements− Additional 9% increase in 2017− Mitigating lower ore grades
• Significant benefits from cost reductions− Higher unit costs in 2017 due to lower
production phase at Highland Valley
Positioning our copper business for the future
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2020
Gra
de (%
)
Tonn
es (m
illion
s)
Mill Throughput
Throughput Grade
Mill throughput excludes Duck Pond which was permanently closed in July 2015. Unit cost guidance is based on the mid-point of guidance.10
Base Metals
Highland Valley at Inflection Point
Focusing on cost and productivity improvements to unlock extension potential
• Lower grade Lornex & Highmont in 2017−Continued cost reduction efforts−Tailings construction to restart
• Advancing plans to extend mine life & enhance production−Add ball mill to grinding circuit to
improve recovery & throughput (~$70 M)−HVC 2040 prefeasibility underway
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
75
100
125
150
175
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2020
2021+
Grade (%
)
Cop
per (
kt)
Copper Production & Grade
Copper Production Grade R&R Grade
Guidance numbers are based on the mid-point of production guidance.11
Base Metals
Rising Zinc Production at Antamina
• Large zinc production increase expected− >50% in 2017 vs. the last 5 years− Higher ratio of Cu-Zn ore
• Key projects advancing− New truck shop nearing completion− Tailings dam construction of next lift− Mine life extension studies progressing
World class asset delivering results
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2020
Prod
uctio
n (k
t)
Copper & Zinc Production
Zinc Copper
Guidance numbers are based on the mid-point of production guidance. Production numbers reflect Teck’s 22.5% share.12
Base Metals
Chile Operations
• Plant debottlenecking continues at Carmen de Andacollo (CDA)− Offsetting lower grade & harder ore− >8% throughput in 2017, with crushing & other improvements
• Adapting Quebrada Blanca to current conditions− Conversion from heap/dump leach to dump leach only completed Q1 2017
• Community engagement key to success
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
35
40
45
50
55
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2020
Gra
de (%
)
Thro
ughp
ut (k
tpd)
CDA Mill Throughput & Grade
Throughput Grade
13
Base Metals
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 Project
Note: Based on Feasibility Study.1. 100% basis, in constant first quarter of 2016 dollars, excluding working capital and interest during construction. Teck owns a 76.5% share.2. Average production rates, copper equivalent production rates, C1 cash costs and initial development capital are based on the first full five years of operations. C1 cash costs are
net of by-product credits.
Project Capital1
US$4.7billion
Copper Equivalent Production2
300,000tonnes per year
Molybdenum Production2
7,700tonnes per year
Mine Life
25+years
Copper in Reserves
14.2billion pounds
C1 Cash Costs2
US$1.28per pound
• Initial mine life uses ~25% of reserves & resources• AISC well in the low half of the cost curve, with low sustaining capex• Permitting on track
14
Base Metals
NuevaUnión Project
Initial Project Capital
US$3.5billion
Copper Production1
190,000tonnes per year
Gold Production1
315,000ounces per year
Mine Life
32+years
Copper in Reserves2
16.6billion pounds
Gold in Reserves2
8.9million ounces
Note: Conceptual based on preliminary design from the PEA.1. Average production rates and copper equivalent production are based on the first full ten years of operations.2. Total copper and gold contained in mineral reserves as reported separately by Teck and Goldcorp.3. Capital estimate for Phase 1a based on preliminary design shown in 2015 dollars on an unescalated basis.
• Copper equivalent production of 250 kt per year• Prefeasibility study completion expected at end Q3 2017• Proactive & participatory community engagement approach
15
Base Metals
Preparing Red Dog for the Future
• Harder ore & lower grades at Aqqaluk− Higher grade Qanaiyaq pit started
• NANA royalty to 35% in 2H 2017• Advancing studies to maintain current
production levels− Value Improvement Project #2 to
increase throughput by >20%− Maintain mine life to 2032
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2020
2
3
4
5
Gra
de (%
)
Thro
ughp
ut (M
t)
Throughput to Offset Grade Decline
Throughput Zinc Grade
16
Base Metals
Excellent Extension Potential at Red Dog
Focusing on near-mine & district satellite areas, particularly:
• Anarraaq - new mineral resource
• Aktigiruq - 18km drill program
LikSu
Aktigiruq
Anarraaq
AqqalukPaalaaq
MainQanaiyaq
~15 km
17
Base Metals
Solid Feed Base & Performance at Trail
• Annual production records set in 2016− Zinc: 312 kt− Lead: 99 kt− Silver: 24 Moz
• Red Dog & Pend Oreille are important feed sources
• Investing in No. 2 Acid Plant− Improved reliability and stability
80
90
100
110
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% C
ompa
red
with
201
2 B
ase
Solid Production Performance
Zinc Lead
Guidance numbers are based on the mid-point of production guidance.18
Base Metals
Increasing Value in Base Metals
• Driving results through operating excellence
• Targeted improvements to enhance value
• Life extension options at core assets
• Advancing QB Phase 2 & NuevaUnión
19
Business Units
Agenda
Introduction
Base Metals
Steelmaking Coal
20
Steelmaking Coal
Operating Strategy
• Maximize synergies in Elk Valley:– Provides flexibility & optionality
• Sustain:– Top quartile haul truck productivity– Low operating costs
• Achieve:– Top quartile maintenance performance– Maximize plant production
• Reduce operating risk: – Invest in new equipment (e.g. shovel)
21
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/to
nne
Total Costs1
Steelmaking Coal
Strip Ratio Supports Future Production
• Low strip ratio in 2016 due timing of permitting
• Strip ratio increase expected in 2017‒ Coal Mountain near end of life‒ New developments have higher
strip ratios & better quality coal• Going forward, strip ratio expected
to trend lower 4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cle
an S
trip
Rat
io
Clean Strip Ratio
1. Total costs are site costs plus transportation costs. 2017 is based on the mid-point of guidance.
~~0
22
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cos
t per
BC
MTM
Truck/Shovel Mining Costs1,3 *
Steelmaking Coal
Operating With Excellence • Drive mining productivity improvements
‒ Up 21% in the last 5 years‒ Additional 3% improvement in 2017
• Cost reduction efforts reduced truck/shovel mining costs1,3
‒ Down 16% in the last 5 years‒ Additional 2% reduction in 2017
• Total site costs2,3 down 30% in 2012-2016 60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Perc
enta
ge o
f Tar
get
Truck Productivity*
Disciplined approach to cost control * 2017 numbers are based on the mid-point of production guidance.1. Truck/shovel mining costs are site costs directly attributable to mining and maintenance excluding processing costs and overhead costs. 2. Total site costs are site costs, inventory write-downs, and capitalized stripping., excluding depreciation.3. Non-GAAP financial measure. See “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of our quarterly press releases for further information.
23
Steelmaking Coal
Competitive Position on Margin Curve
$(20)
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
US$
per
Ton
ne
Operating Margin1
Source: Wood Mackenzie
• High quality hard coking coal assets provide strong margins
• Competitive mining costs
• Operations well positioned in a volatile market
Teck
1. Quality-adjusted operating margin, based on Wood Mackenzie’s data set for 2016 and utilizing an FOB port equivalent benchmark price of US$131 per tonne for the highest quality products. Assumes a Canadian dollar to US dollar exchange rate of 1.30 and an Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate of 1.37.24
Steelmaking Coal
Sustaining Capex Supports Long Term Vision
• Investing in mobile equipment lasting >15 years
• Sustaining capital is close to long term average in 2017
• Investing in risk reduction
2017 numbers are based on the mid-point of production guidance.
3.50
11.50
3.50 4.50
11.00
13.00
10.00
6.50
2.50 1.50
5.00
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$/to
nne
(cle
an)
$M
Steelmaking Coal Sustaining Capital
Long-Term Average
~$7.00/tonne
$140
M
Sustaining Capital (LHS) Sustaining Capital Per Tonne (RHS)
25
Steelmaking Coal
Five Year Plan: Sustain 27 Million Tonnes1
Objectives• Manage transition from Coal
Mountain
• Pursue incremental production capacity in remaining Valley mines
• Evaluate Cardinal River mine life extension
• Maintain optionality with Quintette& Coal Mountain Phase 2
1. Subject to market conditions.
-
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
tonn
es)
Conceptual Production Profile
Fording River Greenhills (80%) ElkviewLine Creek Cardinal River Coal MountainAdditional Elk Valley
26
• Safe and productive operations• High margin business• Planning to produce ~27 Mt for decades
27
Steelmaking Coal
Summary
ProjectsMarch 30, 2017Tim Watson, SVP, Project Development and Engineering Alex Christopher, SVP, Exploration, Projects and Technical Services
Projects
Agenda
Fort Hills
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
3
Fort Hills
Project Overview• Nameplate capacity increased to 194 kbpd• Steady state production increased to 186 kbpd• First oil end of 2017• Expect to achieve 90% of nameplate capacity by end 2018
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership, Fall 2016.4
Fort Hills
Project Progress
Progress as of February 28, 2017
>80% Construction complete
• Final installation of all modules & process vessels • Ore preparation mechanically complete• 55% progress on first oil scope1
• Site work now focused on piping, electrical & instrumentation
3 of 6 Major project areas turned over to Operations
• Permanent power infrastructure energized• Mine operations on schedule for overburden
stripping & mine development• Mine administration building occupied• Ore preparation plant turned over to Operations
58% Operations personnel hired
• >1,000 operations staff hired • Workforce training systems in place for mining &
process operators• Experienced operations team
1. Facilities required to start Fort Hills oil production from the first train in secondary extraction.5
Six Major Project Areas Target Date / Status
1. Mining1 Completed
2. Ore Prep1 Completed
3. Major Infrastructure1 Completed 4. Primary Extraction & Tailings
‒ Primary Extraction‒ Tailings
April 2017August 2017
5. Utilities June 2017
6. Secondary Extraction (First Train) First Oil in December 2017
1. Construction completed. Turned over to operations.2. Facilities required to start Fort Hills oil production from the first train in secondary extraction.
Fort Hills
Major Milestones
Other Milestones Target Date / Status
Power Transmission & Distribution1 Completed
50% First Oil Scope2 Completed
Five of six major project areas tracking to plan
6
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1
~5km x ~5km
7
Fall 2014
Fall 2015
Fort Hills
Ore Preparation: Crusher
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
1
8
Fort Hills
Ore Preparation: Crusher
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
1
9
Fall 2014
Fall 2015
Fort Hills
Ore Preparation: Slurry Prep
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
1
10
Fort Hills
Ore Preparation: Slurry Prep
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
1
11
Fort Hills
Ore Preparation: Hydro-Transport Lines
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
1
12
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1 2Primary Extraction & Tailings
~5km x ~5km
13
Fort Hills
Primary Extraction: Primary Separation Cell
Fall 2014
Fall 2015
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
2
14
Fort Hills
Primary Extraction: Primary Separation Cell
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
2
15
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1
3
Utilities
2Primary Extraction & Tailings
~5km x ~5km
16
Fall 2015
Fall 2014
Fort Hills
Utilities
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
3
17
Fort Hills
Utilities
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
3
18
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1
3
Utilities
River Water Intake4
2Primary Extraction & Tailings
~5km x ~5km
19
Fall 2015
Fall 2014
Fort Hills
River Water Intake
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
4
20
Fort Hills
River Water Intake
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
4
21
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1
3
Utilities
River Water Intake4
5
Substation
2Primary Extraction & Tailings
~5km x ~5km
22
Fort Hills
Main Substation
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
5
23
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1
3
Utilities
River Water Intake4
5
Substation
6
TPL Tank Farm
2Primary Extraction & Tailings
~5km x ~5km
24
Fort Hills
Tank Farm: Trans Canada Pipeline Limited
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
6
25
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1
3
Utilities
River Water Intake4
5
Substation
6
TPL Tank Farm
7
EastTank Farm
~50 km
2Primary Extraction & Tailings
~5km x ~5km
26
Fort Hills
East Tank Farm
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
7
27
Ore Prep
MINE
Athabasca River
Highway#63
Fort Hills
Site Plot Plan
1
Secondary Extraction83
Utilities
River Water Intake4
5
Substation
6
TPL Tank Farm
7
EastTank Farm
~50 km
2Primary Extraction & Tailings
~5km x ~5km
28
Fort Hills
Secondary Extraction Plot Plan
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
8
29
Fort Hills
Secondary Extraction Aerial View
Spring 2013
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
8
30
Fort Hills
Secondary Extraction
Fall 2014
Fall 2015
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
8
31
Fort Hills
Secondary Extraction
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
8
32
Fort Hills
Secondary Extraction
Fall 2016
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
8
33
Fort Hills
Secondary Extraction Aerial View
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership
Fall 2016
8
34
Fort Hills
Summary
• Tracking to plan for first oil at end of 2017• Expect 90% of nameplate capacity by end 2018• Expect to generate 45 years of cash flows from
steady state production of 186 kbpd
Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership, Fall 2016.35
Projects
Agenda
Fort Hills
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
36
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Feasibility Study Overview
Project Capital1
US$4.7billion
Capital Intensity2
~US$16,000$/tonnes annual CuEq
C1 Cash Costs2
US$1.28per pound
Note: Based on Feasibility Study.1. 100% basis, in constant first quarter of 2016 dollars, excluding working capital and interest during construction. Teck owns a 76.5% share.2. Average production rates, copper equivalent production rates, C1 cash costs and initial development capital are based on the first full five years of operations. C1 cash costs are
net of by-product credits.
• Competitive capital intensity• Tier 1 metal producer• AISC well in the low half of the cost curve• Very low strip (included as cash cost) and low sustaining capital
Throughput
140,000tonnes per day
Copper Equivalent Production2
300,000tonnes per year
Molybdenum Production2
7,700tonnes per year
37
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Long Life with Resource Optionality
• LOM Reserves• 1.26 billion tonnes (P&P), at 0.51% Cu and 0.019% Mo
• Resources • 1.32 billion tonnes (M&I), at 0.38% Cu and 0.016% Mo• 2.14 billion tonnes (Inferred) at 0.37% Cu and 0.018% Mo
• Initial mine life uses only ~25% of reserves & resources• Attractive mine life to payback ratio
Initial Mine Life
25years
Copper in Reserves
14.2billion pounds
Copper in Resources
11.1(M&I) 17.5(I)billion pounds
Note: Based on Feasibility Study and NI43-101 disclosure(1) Mineral Reserves are constrained within an optimized pit shell and scheduled using a variable grade cut-off approach based on NSR values that averages US$15.07/t over the planned life of mine. The life-of-mine strip ratio is 0.52.(2) Both Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve estimates consider long-term commodity prices of US$3.00/lb Cu and US10.0/lb Mo and other assumptions that include: pit slope angles of 30–44º, variable metallurgical recoveries that average approximately 91% for Cu and 76% for Mo and operational costs supported by a Feasibility Study.(3) Mineral Resources are reported using a NSR cut-off of US$10.36/t. Mineral Resources also include mineralization that is within the Mineral Reserves pit between NSR values of US$10.36/t and US$15.07/t which has been classified as Measured and Indicated, as well as material classified as Inferred that is within the Mineral Reserves pit. In addition Mineral Resources include 23.8 million tonnes of hypogene material grading 0.54% copper that has been mined and stockpiled during our existing supergene operations..
38
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Key Infrastructure Components
• Mine & 140 kt/d concentrator,• Tailings facility for 1.26 Bt• Concentrate pipeline (164 km) • Port & filter plant at Punta Patache• Desal plant & pipeline (160 km) • Supporting roads and infrastructure• 3rd party power and transmission
Common corridor for
• Water pipelines
• Concentrate pipelines
• Power lines
39
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Existing Site – Expanded Footprint
• Concentrator located west of existing QB mine pit
• QB2 pit is open to east (existing plant site) and at depth
• Waste dumps located north & south of existing pit
• Tailings Management Facility (TMF) located directly south of the concentrator
2 Km
40
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Project Wide Optimization Since 2012
CONCENTRATOR TAILINGS FACILITY METALLURGY
Increased milling rate+5 kt/d (135 to 140 kt/d)
New Location: 7 km vs 45 km from concentrator
Updated recovery to reflect use of desalinated water
Deleted two ore reclaim feeders and coarse ore stockpile cover
Reduced capacity: 25-year life vs 38-year life
+ 6% Cu recovery (absolute values)+ 19% Mo Recovery
Reduced layout footprint of process facilities PIPELINES PORT
Removed SAG mills discharge screens and optimized pebble
crushing circuit
Reduced Tailings Transport System length by relocating Tailings
Management Facility
Consolidated all port facilities into one area
Changed flotation cells in cleaning circuit
Reduced Reclaim Water System length and optimized use of gravity
flow in the system
Optimized port layout and concentrate storage shed capacity
Eliminated flotation regrind building
Mass Earthworks 18% Concrete 31% Structural Steel 24%41
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Attractive Production Metrics
Category UnitAnnual Average
First 5 Years
First 10 Years LOM
Mining Total material moved million t 97.7 96.2 82.4
Processing Total ore processed million t 50.7 50.9 50.9Head grade – copper % 0.60% 0.56% 0.51%Head grade – molybdenum % 0.020% 0.021% 0.019%
Production1 Copper production thousand t 275 258 238Molybdenum production thousand t 7.7 8.2 7.3Copper equivalent production thousand t 301 286 262
Cash Costs2 Before by-product credits USD/lb Cu 1.51 1.59 1.64After by-product credits USD/lb Cu 1.28 1.33 1.39
Category UnitTotal(1)
LOM
Capital Costs3 Initial capital costs US $M 4,714Sustaining capital costs US $M 492Closure costs US $M 184
1. Copper equivalent figures are calculated by converting margin from molybdenum by-products into equivalent copper tonnages at project price assumptions.2. C1 cash costs allocate all costs to the payable copper produced and are inclusive of all stripping costs during operations. C1 cash costs after by-product credit are
presented assuming US$10 per pound of molybdenum. 3. Capital based on Q1 2016 pricing, study +/- 15% accuracy. Partial years not included in averages.
42
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US$
per
Ann
ual T
onne
CuE
qPr
oduc
tion
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Competitive Capital Intensity
Source: Mining Council, Central Bank of Chile, Rothschild
QB2’s capital intensity is comparable with recent Chilean projects
Capital Intensity of Chilean Copper Projects
QB2 Range
43
Quebrada Blanca Phase 2
Robust Economics and Tier 1 Attributes
Copper Price (US$ per pound) $2.75 $3.00 $3.25 $3.50Net present value at 8% (US$ millions) 565 1,253 1,932 2,604Internal rate of return (%) 9.7% 11.7% 13.5% 15.2%Payback from first production (years) 6.8 5.8 5.0 4.4
Annual EBITDAFirst Full Five Years (US$M pa) 856 1,002 1,148 1,294First Full Ten Years (US$M pa) 781 918 1,055 1,192Life of Mine (US$ million pa) 685 811 937 1,063
NI 43-101 Case
Long life (25 years plus optionality)Attractive production metrics (top 15 copper producer globally)Low cost (low half of AISC cost curve)Competitive capital intensity (~$16k per tonne)Attractive jurisdiction for long term ownership
44
MarketingMarch 30, 2017Andrew Stonkus, Senior Vice President, Marketing and SalesRéal Foley, Vice President, Coal MarketingGlenn Burchnall, Director, Energy Marketing and Logistics
Marketing
Agenda
Overview
Steelmaking Coal
Base Metals
Energy
Summary
3
Global growth expected to increase to 3.4%, from 3.1% in 2016
• India expected to be the fastest-growing large economy at 7.6%
• China plans to keep growth >6.5%, per the 13th Five Year Plan
• Growth expected to pick up in commodity-exporting emerging markets & developing economies (EMDEs)
• Japan’s growth expected to pick up modestly to 1%1
• US at full employment; US$1 trillion infrastructure package could increase GDP growth to 2.3% in 20172
Global GDP is still growing & may exceed expectations if fiscal stimulus in major economies is implemented
Source: IMF1. EIU forecast of 1% in 2017, fro 0.8% in 2016.2. IMF and EIU forecast GDP growth to increase to 2.3% in 2017, compared with 1.6% in 2016.
Marketing
World Economy in 2017
4
• Transition to a more consumer-based economy
• Infrastructure construction remains a key pillar
• Supply-side reforms, e.g. coal and steel capacity reductions
• Copper demand expected to be strong, driven by power grid and new electric vehicle (NEV) sectors
• Zinc demand expected to remain solid, driven by infrastructure (2017E: >US$2 trillion investment) autos & higher zinc intensity
Investment remains the key to achieving growth goals
Marketing
China’s 13th Five-Year Plan
5
Marketing
Agenda
Overview
Steelmaking Coal
Base Metals
Energy
Summary
6
7
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Good Market Fundamentals
• Price volatility easing
• Demand growth in emerging markets
• China supply constraints
• Limited restarts
Coal Price Assessments
Source: Argus Plotted to March 17, 2017
• Price induced closures globally
• Supply disruptions from weather & temporary mine failures
• Q4 inventory build by mills due to further supply disruption concerns
• Price induced supply response
• Q1 inventory drawdown by mills as no further disruptions
Supply and demand driven volatility
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Price Volatility Easing
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
$ / to
nne
Quarterly Contract Settlement Argus FOB Australia
8
500
600
700
800
900
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
f
Nominal GDP, Billion USD(LHS) Crude Steel Production, Mt(RHS)
Ex-China
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Improving Steel Demand & Output Globally
Steel Demand
YoY Growth 2017
Global +0.5%
China -2.0%
Developing, ex-China +4%
Developed +1.1%Source: WSA
• Chinese steel demand could be stable given 2017 is a leadership transition year
• Global steel demand expected to grow overall
GDP and Crude Steel Production
500
800
1,100
1,400
1,700
2,000
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
f
Global
0
300
600
900
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
f
China
Source: WSA, IMF
9
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Milli
on to
nnes
Coking coal output 2015 Coking coal output 2016
Seaborne coal utilization increased by ~2 Mt YoY
Source: Fenwei
China's Coking Coal Imports & Stock ChangesChina’s Coking Coal Production
Approximate Period of 276 Operating Days Policy 35
13
3
8
36
24
2
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Seaborne Landborne Stock at sixports
Stock at sampleend users
Milli
on to
nnes
2015 2016
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
China’s Operating Day Policy Influence on Demand
Source: China Customs, Mysteel(Dec. 31)(Dec. 31)
10
Coal Capacity Reduction Target
2017 coal capacity reduction target @ 150Mt
Steel Capacity Reduction Target
140
65
50
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2016-2020target
2016 actual 2017 target 2018-2020remaining
target
Milli
on to
nnes
800
290
150
360
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2016-2020target
2016 actual 2017 target 2018-2020remaining
target
Mill
ion
tonn
es
Source: Governmental announcementsSource: Governmental announcements
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Capacity Reductions Continue in China
11
Seaborne Coking Coal Imports
Hegang Project• Inland plant relocating to coastal area• Capacity: crude steel 20Mt• Status: Timeline not announced
Guofeng Project• Inland plant relocating to coastal area• Capacity: crude steel 8Mt, hot metal 8Mt• Status: Construction to be started in 2017;
completion in 2021
Shougang Jingtang Plant• Expansion• Capacity: crude steel 9.4Mt (phase 2)• Status: Construction started in 2015; completion in
2018
Shandong Steel Rizhao Project• Greenfield project• Capacity: crude steel 8.5Mt• Status: Construction started in 2015; completion
in 2017
Liusteel Fangcheng Project• Greenfield project• Capacity: Phase 1 crude steel ~10Mt• Status: Timeline for blast furnace not announced
Large users and coastal steel projects to support seaborne demand
1021 21 22 25
25
39
26
13 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Small users 14 large users
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Large Users Increasing Seaborne Imports
2 projects under construction3 approved projects
Source: China Customs
12
Source: CRU; Wood Mackenzie
Seaborne Steelmaking Coal Imports (Average of CRU and Wood Mackenzie, Change 2021 vs. 2016)
China’s import demand is currently stronger,and coastal plants depend on seaborne imports
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Strong Demand Fundamentals ex. China
265
275
285
295
305
2016 Brazil Vietnam Europe& CIS
India Other 2021,ex.
China
China 2021
Mt
13
India’s Hot Metal Capacity; Projects and Operations
Seaborne Steelmaking Coal ImportsRequired to Meet India Hot Metal Production
Seaborne steelmaking coal imports forecasted to increase by >25%
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Growing India Steelmaking Coal Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
HMP forecast by CRUHMP forecast by Wood MackenzieSeaborne Steelmaking Coal Imports (average Wood Mackenzie and CRU)
Source: WSA, CRU, Wood Mackenzie
Mt
Actual HMP (WSA)
z
14
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Supply Response to Prices
Seaborne Steelmaking Coal Exports (Cumulative change since January 2016 vs. corresponding period in 2015)
Source: Global Trade Atlas, T.Parker, Argus
Steelmaking coal exports still lower than previous period
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17
Australia USA Canada Monthly Avg. of Argus FOB Australia (RHS)
US$
/t
Mt
15
• ~14 Mt restarts announced:− ~1/3 is HCC− Gradual implementation expected
• Majority of restarts announced by:− New owners− Junior companies− Mozambique
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Restarts Coming Gradually
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
USA Australia Canada Mozambique
Mt
Announced Restarts: Seaborne Steelmaking Coal Exports
Few restart announcements since October 2016
Source: Wood Mackenzie; CRU; company reports
As at March 15, 201716
17
Steelmaking Coal Marketing
Good Market Fundamentals
• Prices doubled in past year
• India leading demand growth
• China cutting production capacity
• Seaborne steelmaking coal exports lower in past year
Marketing
Agenda
Overview
Steelmaking Coal
Base Metals
Energy
Summary
20
21
Base Metals Marketing
Strong Fundamentals
Copper• Global mine production growth slowing• Deficits starting to develop
Zinc• Concentrate market in significant deficit• Smelters cutting production• Reported stocks declining
Base Metals Marketing
Slowing Copper Mine Production Growth
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
Thou
sand
Ton
nes
Mine Production SXEW Scrap Demand
Copper Mine Production Peaks in 2019 Uncommitted Projects Increasingly Delayed
Existing and Fully Committed Mines
Committed and operating mine production peaking & replacement projects delayed
Source: Wood Mackenzie, CRU, ICSG, Teck
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2018FLast Year
2018FToday
2020FLast Year
2020FToday
2022Last Year
2022Today
Thou
sand
Ton
nes
Base Highly Probable Probable Possible
15%in
Base Case
15% in
Base Case
10% in
Base Case
22
52% 43%
25%
37%23%
20%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
11th - 5yr PlanCompleted
12th - 5yr PlanCompleted
13th - 5year PlanEstimate
RM
B tri
llion
Transmission Distribution-Urban Distribution-Rural
Base Metals Marketing
Chinese Copper Demand to Remain Strong
Source: CEC, ICA Source: NEA, ICA
Significant Power Grid Investment
282
202
7148
2119
-7 -75
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ktpa
Potential Annual Growth in Most Sectors
23
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Month of Forecast
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Month of Forecast
Wood Mackenzie 2017 Refined Balance Wood Mackenzie 2018 Refined Balance
Base Metals Marketing
Wood Mackenzie Copper Outlook Moved to DeficitTh
ousa
nd t
onne
s
24
Improved fundamentals supporting stronger prices
2018 market also moved into deficit
Thou
sand
ton
nes
Market now in deficitdespite lower demand
Base Metals Marketing
Global Stocks Stable Despite Price Decline
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US¢/lb
Thou
sand
tonn
es
Chinese Bonded LME COMEX SHFE LME Price
• Price correction late 2016 as more balanced market expected
• Total stocks (including bonded), in days of global consumption:‒ Today: 29 days‒ Early 2013: ~45
days‒ Average this decade
~33 days
Copper Stocks
Source: CRU, SHFE, LME, CME, Teck
plotted to mid-March 2017
Lower prices have not translated into increased stocks
25
• At 2.1% global demand growth, 521 kt new supply needed annually
• Mine production falls ~230 kt per year after 2019
• Market finely balanced through 2018‒ Could materially change with
similar disruption level as 2015
• Structural deficit starts 2019
• Projects delayed today will not be available by 2019
Forecast Copper Refined Balance
Base Metals Marketing
Long-Term Copper Mine Production Still Needed
Source: ICSG, Wood Mackenzie, Teck
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Thou
sand
tonn
es
26
27
• Global mine production growth slowing
• Demand growth positive
• Deficits starting to develop
• Global stocks are low
• Market needs new projects
Base Metals Marketing
Copper Market Moving to Deficit
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
Thou
sand
Ton
nes
Mine Production Secondary Demand
Base Metals Marketing
Slowing Zinc Mine Production Growth
Zinc Mine Production Has Peaked Uncommitted Projects Increasingly Delayed
Existing and Fully Committed Mines
Committed and operating mine production peaking & replacement projects delayed
Source: Wood Mackenzie, CRU, ILZSG, Teck
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2018LastYear
2018Today
2020LastYear
2020Today
2022FLastYear
2022Today
Thou
sand
Ton
nes
Base Highly Probable Probable Possible
28
Source: SMM, Antaike, Teck
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Chinese Zinc Concentrate Port Stocks
Source: Teck, LME, SHFE, RBC
Zinc Treatment Charges
Low concentrate stocks reflected in low TCs
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-14
Jan-
15Ju
l-15
Jan-
16Ju
l-16
Jan-
17
Imported spot TCs Domestic spot TCs
kdm
t
Impo
rted
TC ($
/dm
t)
Dom
estic TC (R
MB/t)
Base Metals Marketing
Concentrate Stocks at Historic Lows
29
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0¢
50¢
100¢
150¢
200¢
250¢
LME Stocks SHFE Price
Base Metals Marketing
Zinc Metal Market Moving Towards TightnessU
S¢/lb
Plotted to March 15, 2017
Source: LME/SHFE
Daily Zinc Prices & Stocks
Stocks are drawing down & nearing 2006’s critical level
Stocks inflection point in 2005/2006
Stoc
ks
30
Base Metals Marketing
Zinc Stocks Approaching Critical LevelsU
S¢/lb
Data Plotted from 2000 to March 15, 2017Source: LME, SHFE, Wood Mackenzie
Zinc Prices vs. Days of Reported Stocks
• Significant mine closures completed
• Mine production has fallen
• Asian metal production curtailments
• Inventories declining
• Treatment charges have tightened significantly
Days of stocks
0¢
50¢
100¢
150¢
200¢
250¢
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2007
2003
2004
20062005
Jan 2014Jan 2013
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Mar 15, 2017
Dec 31, 2016
31
Base Metals Marketing
Committed Zinc Supply Insufficient for Demand
Forecast Zinc Refined Balance
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Teck
• Insufficient mine supply to constrain refined production− 2014-2020: demand increase of
2.8 Mt vs. supply increase 792 kt
• Market in deficit from 2014
• Inventory that has funded the deficit will be depleted in 2017
• Market moving into significant deficit‒ Demand growth projections
outpacing supply response(6,000)
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
Thou
sand
tonn
es
32
33
Base Metals Marketing
Structural Deficits in Zinc
• Concentrate market in significant deficit
• Smelters cutting production
• Short term production restarts needed
• Stocks declining & insufficient to meet demand
Marketing
Agenda
Overview
Steelmaking Coal
Base Metals
Energy
Summary
34
• Price upside limited by US production growth in short term
• Production cuts & demand growth expected to balance market in 2017
• Consensus expectations for WTI of US$75 per barrel by 2025
Energy Marketing
Market Moving Towards Balance
World Liquid Fuels Production & Consumption
-3
-1
1
3
5
84
88
92
96
100
mbp
d
Implied stock change and balance (right axis)World production (left axis)World consumption (left axis)
Source: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook March 2017
North American Rig Count & US Production
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
200
700
1,200
1,700
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
Jan-
17
kbpd
Rig
cou
nt u
nits
US Rig Count CAD Rig Count US 4-week Production Avg.
Source: Baker Hughes, EIA
WTI Benchmark Price (US$/bbl)
Source: IHS, Sproule, Deloitte
$0$20$40$60$80
$100$120
US$
/bbl
2014-2016 Historical 2017-2025 Forecast (Real $)
35
Strategic Objectives• Successful commissioning & start-up• 12-month ramp up to 90% capacity • Maximize sales volumes & bitumen netbacks• Market diversification
Energy Marketing
Guiding Principles for Fort Hills Marketing
Key Commercial Activities• Bitumen production*: 37 kbpd• Diluent acquisition: 11 kbpd• Blend sales: 48 kbpd
* Under “steady state” operating conditions.Source: Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership36
WTI-WCS* differentials forecast to improve with export pipeline capacitySource: CAPP 2016 Supply Forecast, Lee & Doma, Teck* Western Canadian Select heavy blend.
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kbpd
Western Canada Supply Western Canada Supply GrowthTotal Pipeline & Local Refining Total Pipeline, Local Refining & Rail
TransMountain & Enbridge
Keystone XL
Excess Pipeline Capacity
Western Canada Supply/Demand Balance
Energy Marketing
Recent Pipeline Announcements Constructive
Constrained Pipeline Capacity ; Rail
Available
37
• US/Canadian heavy refining capacity exceeds Canadian heavy crude oil production
• US Gulf Coast provides largest market for growth
• TransMountain & Keystone XL pipelines will provide increased access to deep water ports
Disposition & Refining Capacity For Canadian Heavy (kbpd)
0600
12001800
2015 2019
Western Canada
0600
12001800
2015 2019
US Rockies0
60012001800
2015 2019
Eastern US/Canada0600
12001800
2015 2019
US West Coast
0600
12001800
2015 2019
US Midwest
0600
12001800
2015 2019
US Gulf Coast
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2015 2019
kbpd
US/Canada Heavy Crude Refining Capacity
AdditionalCapacityAvailable forCanadian Heavy
Canadian HeavyUsage
Source: CAPP, EIA, Lee & Doma Energy Group
Additional Capacity Available for Canadian Heavy
Canadian Heavy Usage
Energy Marketing
US Midwest/Gulf Coast Key Markets
38
Blended Bitumen Pipelines
TransCanada Energy East
Enbridge/Enbridge Flanagan South
TransMountain
TransCanada Keystone, Keystone XL
Market Hub
Deep Water Port
In Service Pipeline
Proposed Pipeline
Hardisty or Common Carriage to Midwest / USGC
Cushing
Flanagan
HardistyEdmonton
Saint John
US Gulf Coast
Europe
Asia
Vancouver
Steele City
Asia SuperiorMontreal
Asia Europe
• Fort Hills partners have secured long-term pipeline access to Hardisty‒ Significant Canadian market hub‒ Access to common carriage and
contract capacity pipelines
• Will secure contracted pipeline access‒ North American refining centres &
deep water ports‒ Targeting contracts for 20-25 kbpd
of capacity on export pipelines
• Balance to be sold at Hardisty, or nominated on Enbridge
Energy Marketing
Portfolio Approach to Market Access
Access to deep water ports will add market capacity & diversification 39
Energy Marketing
Hardisty is Canada’s “Cushing”• Crude oil storage: 29 mbbls, 425 kbbls contracted by Teck• Export pipeline takeaway capacity: 3.7 mbpd
– Enbridge common carrier– Keystone & Express pipelines– Origination point for 2 proposed pipelines
• Rail car loading capability: 120 kbpd
Source: Gibson Energy40
Energy Marketing
Target Customers
• High quality bitumen that is attractive to refiners
• Targeting key customers throughout North America
• Term contracts under negotiation
Source: Suncor41
Energy Marketing
Summary
42
• Marketing an established, well accepted type of crude
• Well positioned with significant storage at Hardisty market hub
• Developing a portfolio of market access opportunities to diversified markets
Source: Enbridge
Marketing
Agenda
Overview
Steelmaking Coal
Base Metals
Energy
Summary
43
44
Marketing
Summary
Copper• Global mine production growth slowing• Deficits starting to developZinc• Concentrate market in significant deficit• Smelters cutting production• Reported stocks declining
Steelmaking Coal• Price volatility easing• Good demand growth forecast
Energy• Established type of crude • Portfolio of market access opportunities
Investor and Analyst DayMarch 30, 2017