[email protected]. i have nothing profound the say …except, many of the things we all used to...
TRANSCRIPT
I Have Nothing Profound the Say
…except, many of the things we all used to know we knew, have
changed
Think
Today’s New “Place” Reality• The economy changed• The competition changed• Locational factors changed• The U.S. workforce has changed• The talent demands changed• Customer (talent & companies)
demands/expectations changed• The pace of change and everything
else changed
How Is The Economy?
Corporate Profits at All Time High
Stock Market at All Time High
Housing Price Index- Inflation Adjusted
Source: Calculatedriskblog.com
Stagnation of wages and slow growth of jobs
Wide disparity between people and places
So What Are Some Economic Facts?
Annual U.S. Employment Change
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-6,000,000
-5,000,000
-4,000,000
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
-1,757,000
-532,000
62,000
2,019,0002,484,000
2,071,000
1,115,000
-3,617,000
-5,052,000
1,022,000
2,103,0002,193,000
2,331,000
Source: BLS Nov 2013
Annual U.S. Employment Change By SectorMarch 2013 to March 2014
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade/Trans/Util
Information
Financial
Prof/Biz Services
Ed/Health Services
Leisure/Hosp
Governm
ent
-100,000.00
0.00
100,000.00
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
700,000.00
800,000.00
151,00072,000
529,000
29,000 57,000
667,000
334,000406,000
-19,000
Source: BLS April 2014
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes Feb 2013 to Feb 2014
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0.8%1.0%
2.8%
1.4%
-0.3%
0.5%0.3%
1.2%
0.4%
1.2% 1.2%
1.5% 1.4%
2.8%
0.0%0.2%
Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Feb 2013- Feb 2014
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
14,30011,600
211,500
56,000
-5,800
9,900 7,600
32,000
4,900
46,400
20,20027,500
37,700
314,200
-1,8001,900
Source: U.S. BLS, March 2014, Measured Feb 2013 to Feb 2014
NC Employment Change By SectorFeb 2013 to Feb 2014
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade/Trans/Util
Financial
Prof/Biz Services
Ed/Health Services
Leisure/Hosp
Governm
ent
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
5,400
-600
11,600
2,800
19,000
5,3002,100
-2,900
Source: BLS April 2014
NC Employment Growth
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Source:NCESC.com
Jan Annual Employment
“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth”
Mike Tyson
The Punch- Job Change 1990 to 2012
Textiles Tobacco App/Cut Sew Furniture0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000182,905
16,530
92,531 86,962
30,685
6,1198,338
30,229
19902012
Source: NCESC.com
The loss of about 80% of our traditional manufacturing jobs
NC Employment Changes By Sector 2000-2012
Total
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Retail
Trans/Ware
Info
Finance/Ins
Real Estate
Prof/Tech
Education
Health
Art/Enter
Accom/Food
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
1%
-9%
-30% -26%
-42%
3%
0%
-13%-18%
18%
1%
35%27%
40%
28% 28%
Source: QCEW County Sector DataEmployees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Employment ChangeJanuary 2008 to January 2014
West Charlotte East Northeast Southeast Triad Triangle-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
-12,276
44,050
-763-10,393
3,714
-18,505
54,730NC Total 60,557
Source: NCESC.com
Southern States Per Capita Income1990-2012 (% Different from Nation Change)
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
7.5%
20.5%
-13.0% -10.7%
7.5%
39.2%
8.5%
1.5%
31.5%
-5.1%
22.0%
-4.3%
6.7%
19.7%
11.2%
18.2%
Source: bber, University of New Mexico
U.S. Change 120.6% Inflation 73%
NC Per Capita Income Compared to U.S. 1990-2012
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
United StatesNC
Source: bber, University of New Mexico
GDP/Capita Changes in the NC 1997-2011
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
NC USA
Source: BEA, Oct 2012
A “Place-Based” Strategy
26
Where You Are, Your Current
Reality
Where You Desire To Be
Direction, or Compass is driven by the Vision, Mission and Core Values of the organization or place
Context is determined by the conversion of comparative and longitudinal data into information that can be used as knowledge
Change is the group of factors, outside your control, that influences your future, global trends, demographic shifts, changing technology
Choices of Intentional Actions To Move From
Here To There
Change
Compass
Context
Goals
Actions
Metrics
Action Plan• What actions will we undertake?• Who will be responsible for those actions?• What resources do we need to be successful?• Where will those resources come from?• When will each action start and be completed?• What results do we expect?• How will those results be evaluated, and;• How will we monitor the plan and continuously
update it?
LeadershipInformation Curation
“No one born after the turn of the century has ever known anything but a world uprooting its foundations, overturning its values and toppling its idols.”
Peter Drucker 1957
Big Trends
Urbanization
U.S. Population ConcentrationMetro-Non-Metro
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Metro Non-Metro Source: Census
80%Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities of 1 million or more
In 2012 over 90% of GDP and 86% of all jobs are in metropolitan areas
Southern States % of Population Rural & Small Cities 2010
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV KS IL IA NE0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
51%
61%
13%
35%
59%
39%
17%
43%
72%
45%
54%
44% 46%
25%30%
67%
50%
20%
58%
46%
Source: U.S. Census 2010, Daily Yonder 2012
2013 Ranking for NC Metropolitan and Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Of 366 Metropolitan AreasTop Third (7)Middle Third (3)Bottom Third (4)
Of 576 Micropolitan AreasTop Third (8)Middle Third (4)Bottom Third (14)
Source: Policom.com, 2013
Global Interdependence
State Goods % Exports Growth 2010-2013
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
25%
37%
9%
30%
31%
53%
16%
0%
50%
18%
29%28%
25%
35%
5%
32%
Source:2010-2013 data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade
Technology
McKinsey & CompanyDisruptive Technologies: May 2013
Energy Mobile Internet
Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics
Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intel, 3D Printing
The Talent Bar Is Rising
US Adults Years School Completed
Less than HS HS Grad Some College BA plus0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% 76%
14%
5% 5%
31%37%
15% 17%13%
31%26%
30%
19401950196019701980199020002010
In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA
In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA
Source: U.S. Census
Creative Work
Routine Work
Outsourced
RoutineWork
Machines
Routine Work
Source: National Center on Education and the Economy, Tough Choices or Tough Times, 2007
Work Shifts
“What is different now is the nature of jobs going away has changed…the type
of jobs affected have moved up the income distribution.”
Peter DiamondMIT Economist
2010 Nobel Prize Winner
Source: Economicmodeling, Joshua Wright, Oct 3, 2013
Local policy could be worsening the hollowing out of the job market. Data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Southern States Percentage of New Jobs 2010-2013 Paying Middle Wage
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
16.0%18.0%
17.0%
22.0%
30.0%29.0%
22.0%
17.0%
10.0%
22.0%
32.0%
29.0%
24.0% 25.0%
14.0%
19.0%
Source: The Atlantic, Joshua Wright, Oct, 2013
So What…
June 24th and 25th at RTP
• Commercialization must come from the top of the university.
• A culture of change towards entrepreneurship and risk-taking must occur on all levels of the university.
• A centralized point of contact, for industry looking for university invention
• Restructure teaching structures by pushing beyond the standard seat-in-a-classroom, semester-organized, graduate in four years model
• Centers and programs that stretch across traditional academic boundaries
• Incubators and/or accelerators for student and faculty startups, and business plan competition with sizable cash awards.
• Entrepreneurship programs that permeate the university with entrepreneurial opportunities.
“Do what you have, with what you have, where you are.”
