teekay lng partners (nyse: tgp) investor day presentation, sep 30, 2014

34
TEEK AY TEEK AY TEEKAY LNG PARTNERS INVESTOR DAY September 30, 2014

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Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

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Page 1: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

TEEKAYTEEKAY

TEEKAY LNG PARTNERS INVESTOR DAY September 30, 2014

Page 2: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

2

DAVID

GLENDINNING President, Teekay Gas

Services

2

Page 3: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

3

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) which

reflect management's current views with respect to certain future events and performance. All statements included in or accompanying this

presentation, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and actual

results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements in this presentation

include, among others, statements regarding: future growth opportunities and expectations and the effect of any growth on the Partnership’s results

of operations; the expected delivery dates for the Partnership’s newbuilding vessels and commencement of related time charter contracts; the

Partnership’s agreement to provide, through a new 50/50 joint venture with China LNG, six icebreaker LNG carriers for the Yamal LNG project

including the timing of delivery and total cost to construct the vessels; the timing of the start-up of the Yamal LNG project and the expected total

LNG production capacity of the project, if completed; the impact of the transactions with Yamal LNG and BG on the Partnership’s future cash flows;

the delivery and cost to construct the four LNG carrier newbuildings for BG; the total amount of the Partnership’s forward fee-rate revenues and the

average remaining contract length on the Partnership’s LNG fleet; future growth opportunities and expectations relating to our interest in the Exmar

LPG JV and its ability to secure newbuildings at competitive prices; LNG/LPG shipping market fundamentals and projects; LNG and LPG market

fundamentals and trends; the Partnership’s growth strategy and initiatives, including project bidding and expansion into adjacent markets such as

ethane projects; illustrative annual distribution growth; and the estimated amount and timing of capital expenditures relating to existing projects.

The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks

and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: potential shipyard construction delays, newbuilding

specification changes or cost overruns; availability of suitable LNG shipping, LPG shipping, floating storage and regasification and other growth

project opportunities; changes in production of LNG or LPG, either generally or in particular regions; changes in trading patterns or timing of start-

up of new LNG liquefaction and regasification projects significantly affecting overall vessel tonnage requirements; competitive dynamics in bidding

for potential LNG, LPG or floating regasification projects; potential failure of the Yamal LNG Project to be completed for any reason, including due

to lack of funding as a result of existing or future sanctions against Russian entities and individuals, which may affect partners in the project;

potential delays or cancellation of the Yamal LNG project; potential delays in constructing and delivering the four LNG carrier newbuildings for BG;

changes in applicable industry laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws and regulations; the potential for early

termination of long-term contracts of existing vessels in the Teekay LNG fleet; the inability of charterers to make future charter payments; the

inability of the Partnership to renew or replace long-term contracts on existing vessels; the Partnership’s ability to raise financing for its existing

newbuildings or to purchase additional vessels or to pursue other projects; anticipated benefits of partnering with third parties; expected

performance of MEGI newbuildings; and other factors discussed in Teekay LNG Partners’ filings from time to time with the SEC, including its

Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013. The Partnership expressly disclaims any obligation to release publicly any

updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Partnership’s expectations with respect

thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

Page 4: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

4

Stable

Operating

Model

Leading

Market

Position

Strong

Industry

Fundamentals

One of the

world’s largest

LNG carrier

owners and

operators

$11 billion

of forward

fee-based

revenues

Gas is the

fastest growing

fossil fuel

$2.5 billion

of built-in

growth

INVESTMENT

HIGHLIGHTS

Visible

Growth

Page 5: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

5

$3.3B Market Cap

6% Distribution CAGR

Since IPO in 2005

2005

$11B Forward fee-based

revenues

83 Vessels

TEEKAY

LNG AT A

GLANCE

13 years Avg. contract

duration

>99.5% Fleet Availability

since 2008

ZERO Pollution events

15% per annum

Total Shareholder

Return Since IPO

2014

Page 6: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

6

First LNG contracts with Ras Gas

(Ras Gas JV partner ExxonMobil)

Multiple

LNG

contract

awards

Teekay LNG’s Evolution

Gas

Naviera

Tapias Entry into LNG

2004

Teekay LNG Partners IPO

(NYSE:TGP)

2005

Maersk

LNG

Exmar

LPG JV

Expanded into

LPG 2012

Partnership with Exmar,

LPG industry leader

Exmar

LNG JV

Teekay LNG’s Core Businesses

MEGI

LNG

Yamal

LNG

BG

LNG

Photo Credit:

Dmitrijs Jemelins 6

Page 7: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

7

Global Trade

Routes

Teekay LNG’s Global Footprint

Current LNG Trade routes

Future Teekay LNG routes

Teekay LNG Office

Page 8: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

8

64

53

43

29

11 16 15 14

8 8

3

11

4

15

15 10

5 4

2 2

NYK MOL K Line TeekayLNG

MaranGas

GasLog Golar BWMaritime

Knutsen Dynagas

Existing On Order

Major Independent LNG Operator One of the world’s largest independent owners of LNG carriers

Note: Excludes state & oil company fleets . Source: Clarksons and Company websites

67 64

47 44

26 26

20 18

10 10

Page 9: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

9

92%

5% 3%

$11B of Forward-Fee Based Revenues With Strong Customer Base

* The average remaining contract life and forward fee-based revenues relate to 13 of our 30 LPG carriers currently on fixed-rate charters.

Forward Fee-Based Revenues

by Segment

Average Remaining Contract Length

by Segment

14 Years

7 Years*

4 Years *

$11.0B Total Forward

Fee-Based

Revenues

*

LNG Carriers

LPG Carriers

Conventional

Tankers

Page 10: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

10

Reliable Track Record of Operational Excellence

• Approaching 1,000 days

without an LTI

• >99.5% fleet availability

since 2008

• Zero pollution events since

inception

LTIF: Loss Time Injury Frequency

10

Page 11: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

11

Innovative MEGI Newbuildings Leading edge of LNG carriers

• “Best Mouse Trap” for growing LNG

demand

o Reduced fuel consumption - savings of

over $25,000/day* over DFDE vessels

o Reduced boil off gas – reliquefaction

prevents LNG loss

o Optimized vessel size – largest capacity

to fit through new Panama Canal

• Evaluating every component to find

efficiencies

o Propeller, hull form, reliquefaction

• Reduced engine complexity lowers

operational cost

Lower total unit freight cost to customers (e.g. reduces US to China cost by $0.45 per mmbtu* compared to DFDE vessels)

* Assumes 19.5 knots, $650 per tonne fuel equivalent

Page 12: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

12

Partnerships Enhance Growth Partnering allows Teekay LNG to expand its business footprint more

quickly and at a lower cost

Access to new

lines of business

Financing

Risk diversification

Access to new

markets

China LNG

Page 13: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

13

Teekay LNG’s Competitive Advantages

Significant Scale

One of the largest independent owners and

operators of LNG carriers

Technology

First mover to embrace innovative fuel-efficient MEGI

LNG carriers

Strategic Partnerships

Strong joint venture and shipyard relationships

Access to Capital

Since IPO, raised $1.9B of equity and bonds

Strong relationships with over 30 banks / ECAs

Reliable Operations

Excellent HSEQ KPIs

Large pool of seafarers

Page 14: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

14

STRONG GAS MARKET

FUNDAMENTALS

14

Page 15: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

15

LNG Fleet Utilization Improves After 2016 LNG liquefaction export growth mostly driven by U.S. and Australia

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

No. V

esse

ls

Source: Clarksons and internal estimates

Deliveries Scrap Incremental Demand Cumulative Surplus / Deficit

3 TGP LNG deliveries

(uncommitted)

▲ ▲

Only 2 TGP LNG carriers roll-off

contracts (52% owned)

Page 16: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

16

U.S. Projects Create Demand for LNG Carriers Over 100 LNG carriers needed for U.S. projects from 2016

PROJECT START

UP FID

VESSEL

REQUIREMENTS*

Sabine Pass

Trains 1 - 4

2016 /

2017

2012 /

2013

20

Sabine Pass

Train 5

2018 2015 5

Cameron 2018 2014 14

Freeport 2018 2014 14

Corpus

Christi 2018 2015 16

Lake Charles 2019 2015 17

Golden Pass 2020 2015 17

Total 103

Source: Company Websites and Clarksons

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020N

o. V

essels

U.S. Exports – Cumulative Vessel Demand

3 TGP LNG

deliveries

(uncommitted)

3 TGP LNG

options

(undeclared)

TGP’s MEGI LNG newbuildings are ideally suited for U.S. LNG exports

Page 17: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

17

Over 100 MTPA Growth Outside U.S. by 2020 Export volume growth in Australia, Russia, Canada and East Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cu

mu

lative

MT

PA

Canada

Source: Internal Estimates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Cu

mu

lative

MT

PA

Australia

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cu

mu

lative

MT

PA

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cu

mu

lative

M

TP

A

East Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cu

mu

lative

MT

PA

Rest of World

Page 18: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Asia

Euro

pe

Mid

dle

Ea

st

Am

ericas

Latin

Am

er

Afr

ica

MT

PA

Source: IEA

Increase in LNG Imports in next 5 years

Future LNG Demand Driven by Asia Asia will account for almost 70% of the future increase in LNG imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

MT

PA

Source: Clarksons

China and India Import Terminal Capacity

Proposed

Under Construction

Existing

China and India import capacity set to triple by 2018

~70%

Page 19: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

19

150 New LNG Carrier Orders Required by 2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

MT

PA

LNG Export Capacity Additions by Region

Existing Africa Australia Russia North America Others

Current Orderbook

Net of Scrapping

109

Required Orders

150

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

No

. V

essels

Additional LNG Vessel Demand

Vessel Demand

Required Orders

Current Orderbook Net of Scrapping

Cumulative Fleet AdditionsSource: Internal Estimates

In addition to current orderbook

Page 20: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

20

Leading Market Position in Growing MGC Trade LPG trade on Midsize Gas Carriers forecast to grow by 4 MTPA by 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

No. V

esse

ls

Source: Clarksons

Largest MGC Owners (25 – 40k cbm)

Existing On Order

Source: Internal Estimates

• Increasing medium-distance LPG trade from the U.S., Middle East and North Africa to Latin America,

Europe, and India

○ European LPG imports increasing as refinery closures reduce local LPG supply

○ Indian and Latin American imports increasing to meet growing domestic retail demand

• Approximately 50% of the MGC fleet trading ammonia, which offers stable vessel demand

Growing Medium-Haul LPG Trade Routes

Page 21: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

21

Emerging Ethane Shipping Demand U.S. ethane exports create demand for 50 ethane carriers

• Growing supply of low-cost ethane encouraging a switch to ethane

feedstock in the petrochemical industry

• Natural fit for MLPs due to length of contracts

DEMAND ORDER

BOOK

Very Large

Ethane Carriers

(VLEC)

24 6

Midsize Ethane

Carriers (MEC) 25 13

Ethane Carrier Demand vs. Supply

Source: Clarksons, Internal Estimates 0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

mb/d

Source: Wells Fargo, Credit Suisse

U.S. Ethane Export Forecast

Mean

Wells Fargo

Credit Suisse

Page 22: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

22

Strong Demand Growth for Floating Regasification Forecast $3-5B of FSRU projects in next 5 years

• FSRU is the technology of

choice in developing countries

• Provides a quicker, lower-

capital cost access to natural

gas compared to land-based

regasification terminals

• Can be relocated if demand is

short term and / or seasonal 0

5

10

15

20

25

Low Case Base Case High Case

No

. U

nit

s

Source: EMA

FSRU 5-year Order Forecast

Page 23: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

23

TEEKAY LNG’S

GROWTH STRATEGY

23

Page 24: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

24

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TGP’s Fleet Expansion Matches Demand Outlook

8%

92%

$2.5B Total Known

Growth Projects

LNG Carriers LPG Carriers

Growth Projects by Segment Growth Project Deliveries

Strong LPG Outlook Strong LNG Outlook

2 3 3

1

2

4

4

3 2

Page 25: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

25

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2015 2016 2017 2018

An

nu

al

Cap

ital

Inv

estm

en

t ($

millio

ns

)

TGP Growth Capex - Committed vs. Illustrative Target

Cumulative Capital Investments (Known)

TGP Known Annual Asset Deliveries

Cumulative Capex Required for Illustrative Distribution Growth

Over 90% of Growth Capex Already Booked to Achieve Illustrative Growth Through 2017 Aiming to exceed illustrative growth assumptions

Note: Illustrative distribution growth assumptions of 0%, 2.5%, 4% and 4% in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively

91% of Capex

to achieve

illustrative

distribution

growth already

committed

Cumulative Capital Investments (Known)

TGP Known Annual Asset Deliveries

Cumulative Capex Required for Illustrative Distribution Growth

Page 26: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

26

259

109

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

LNG Carrier Demand Through2020

Current Orderbook Net ofScrapping

Through 2020

No. V

esse

ls

Well-Positioned to Capture Significant Share of LNG Market Growth Over $30 billion* of new LNG carrier Capex required by 2020

Demand for 150 new LNG

carrier orders above current

orderbook by 2020

Source: Internal estimates

* Based on demand for 150 new LNG carrier orders at an average Capex of $210 million per vessel.

Page 27: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

27

Successful Exmar LPG JV Transaction Well-timed acquisition

• Strengthening market has

delivered upside to fleet earnings

• Significant scale and customer

relationships

• Newbuildings secured at

competitive prices for fleet renewal

and growth

Short-term LPG Freight Rates

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

$ m

illio

ns /

mo

nth

MGC 1-year TC rate

VLGC spot rate

• Recent market strength has generated gains on sales of older tonnage

• JV has experience required to capitalize on ethane opportunities

JV continues to exceed expectations supported by market strength

and new growth opportunities

Page 28: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

28

Business Adjacencies Targeted for Additional Growth

Leverage Existing Platform and Customer Relationships

LNG Carriers LPG Carriers

FSRU

Ethane

FSU

Core

Page 29: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

29

NEAR-TERM

FOCUS

29

Page 30: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

30

Yamal LNG Project

• TGP, through a new 50/50 joint venture

with China LNG Shipping, will provide six

ARC 7 icebreaker LNG carriers for the

Yamal LNG Project

○ Capex $2.1 billion (100% basis)

− Higher IRR than regular conventional LNG

charters

○ Scheduled to deliver in 2018 through 2020

○ Fee-based contracts through to 2045

• All the LNG from the project already sold

on long-term contracts

• Strong contractual protection from

sanctions and project delays

• Established new strategic partnership with

China LNG Shipping

Vessel requirements:

• 15 ARC 7 icebreaker LNG carriers

• Up to 15 conventional LNG carriers for transshipment (to be

tendered)

Summer route (NSR)

Russia to China – 18 days

Transshipment

Zeebrugge

Yamal LNG

Sabetta

Winter route

Russia to China – 53 days

Page 31: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

31

BG LNG Project Leveraged Teekay Group’s relationship with BG to secure new gas

business

• TGP acquired ownership interest in four LNG carrier newbuildings from BG (30% of first

two vessels and 20% of second two vessels)

○ Capex of $1.0 billion (100% basis)

○ Scheduled to deliver in 2017 through 2019

○ 20 year fee-based contracts

• The vessels will be constructed by Hudong shipyard, a top-tier shipyard in China

• Together with Yamal project, further strengthens relationship with China-based partners

Awarded construction

supervision and

technical

management for 4

LNG newbuildings

2012 2013 2014

Acquired

ownership

interest in these

vessels

Award led to ownership

Page 32: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

32

Preparing Organization for Growth

• Established a

state-of-the-art

training facility

• Draw from Teekay

Group’s large pool of

trained seafarers

• Employer of choice

32

Page 33: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

33

• Execute on $2.5 billion of

committed projects

• Bid on several new point-to-point

LNG projects

• Grow our Exmar LPG JV

• Expand into adjacent areas on a

build-to-suit basis

• Pursue accretive on-the-water

acquisitions

TGP Growth Strategy Primary goal: to increase

distributable cash flow per unit

33

Page 34: Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) Investor Day Presentation, Sep 30, 2014

34