telemedia futures: the next 5 years in media, content and telecom
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from my presentation at BLPLaw in January 2010: insights into what's on the horizon in the technology, media and telecoms sector in 2010 (and beyond!) see http://www.mediafuturist.comTRANSCRIPT
Telemedia Futures
by Gerd Leonhard ‣ Futurist‣ Strategist‣ Author & Blogger
www.mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard
At BLPLaw London, January 13, 2010
From a Broadcast World to a Networked World
From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
From EgoSystems to EcoSystems
The Future: TeleMedia Collaboration
Content
Internet Telecom
Advertising
Consumer Electronics
Social Networks
From Binary Logic to Fuzzy Logic
Source: http://denniscass.com/
What is the value of....?
The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’
Data Pipe
Content Pipe
Experience PlatformService Pipe
Source: eMarketer.com
New technologies - new practices - new business models
Firehoses of Information
Social games & virtual goods
800.000 tractors ‘sold’ EACH DAY65 Million+ users without any advertising
1.2 Million users per day est. $200M / Year in revenues
Source: YouTube.com “farmville girl’
Next: The Napsterization of Books...?
Source: YouTube.com
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences
Focus on ControlOpportunities for Growth
Tele-Media Paradigm Shifts
The Opportunity: Lubricate!
Data is the new Oil...Shared bookmarks, playlists, social markers
Click-trails and digital bread-crumbsOpt-in information such as location
Ratings, comments, tags and other feedback
Digital Content Trends
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
PermissionStandards
TransparencyEngagement
What we need:
0
25
50
75
100
Was Will be
Price Users
Content: pricing logic will flip
Metrics will be reinvented
More
PermissionsMore added
Values
Better Price
More
Convenience
New
Ecosystem
Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated Flat-Rated
Expensive
The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Was
Soon
Mid-term FutureCopy Based RevenuesAttention Based Revenues
“Broadband is useless if your mind stays narrow”
Thanks to Flickr.com/alextorrenegra
Content is only ~20% of the Cost
Bono / Paul McGuinness
Source: last week’s FT (Op-ed by Bono)
Media $$$: no
longer about
Distribution
2010: watch the sea change
Source: IFPI Report 2008
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Was Is Soon The Future
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging
Value of ‘a Copy’
Value of ContextValue of Experience
Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging
Not ‘if’ but ‘how’!
ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain:
Social Networking
Content Services
Communication 2.0
Money 2.0
eLearning
email me at [email protected]/gleonhardfacebook: gleonhardmore presentations at www.mediafuturist.com
Thanks for your time