Ten  Big  Innova,on  Challenges  for  the  Next  Decade:    Sustained  Growth  Within  a  Resource  Constrained  World  

Dr  Tim  Jones  –  Future  Agenda:  IPSIM  18  June  2011  

The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  programme  that  looked  at  the  big  issues  for  2020  so  that  organisaJons  can  beKer  focus  and  sJmulate  innovaJon  

Four  Certain,es  for  the  Next  Decade  

By  2020  we  will  add  another  750m  people  to  the  planet,    most  in  places  least    able  to  accommodate  them  

Imbalanced  PopulaJon  Growth   CertainJes  

We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poliJcal  shortages  of  key  materials  that  will  result  in  major  changes  in  our  perspecJves  

Key  Resource  Constraints   CertainJes  

The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth    shiTs  East  with  decreased  influence  for  the  US  and  Europe  

Asian  Wealth  ShiT   CertainJes  

We  will  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that  can    benefit  from  a  network  connecJon  will  have  one  

Ubiquitous  Data  Access   CertainJes  

Six  Clusters  of  Other  Future  Insights  

Pu[ng  these  Future  Agenda  insights  through  the  ‘innovaJon’  lens,    10  major  challenges  for  the  next  decade  stand  out  

10  InnovaJon  Challenges  

10 Challenges for 2020

If  diabetes  will  consume  5%  of  GDP  by  2020,  how  can  we  use  innovaJon  around  taxaJon,  data  mining  and  personal  budgets    

to  change  behaviour  and  stabilise  the  obesity  epidemic?  

Diabesity   Challenge  #1  

As  insight  is  globally  commodiJzed,  the  best  returns  go  to  those  who  can  produce  non-­‐standard,  differenJated  knowledge  –    

how  can  this  happen  in  a  world  with  less  /  no  IP?  

DifferenJated  Knowledge   Challenge  #2  

As  smart  meters  and  tracking  services  create  pladorms    for  dynamic  pricing,  how  will  this  impact  business  models  and    

how  will  what  we  pay  reflect  value  and  be  valued?  

Dynamic  Pricing   Challenge  #3  

Rising  sustainability  imperaJves  and  increasing  cost  of    ownership  shiT  the  balance  from  ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy  –  but  with  what  business  models?  

Lease  everything   Challenge    #4  

How  will  consumers  be  incenJvised  to  use  significantly    less  energy  as  escalaJng  growth  in  carbon  emissions    

force  uJliJes  to  change  their  business  models?  

Using  Less   Challenge  #5  

A  healthier  older  generaJon  increasingly  engage  in  more  acJve  lives  and  have  extended  careers  -­‐  but  in  order  to  manage  dependency  raJos,  how  can  we  all  be  twice  as  producJve?  

AcJve  Elderly   Challenge  #6  

If  the  future  is  one  of  reduced  choice,  but  not  less  interest,    as  retailers  provide  an  increasingly  edited  pordolio,  how  will    consumers  gain  confidence  in  the  future  choice  curators?    

Less  Variety   Challenge  #7  

Increasing  focus  on  energy  security  drives  the  uptake  of  large-­‐scale  solar  as  the  leading  renewable  supply  –  who  will  lead  on  improving  PV  and  transmission  efficiency  to  make  this  a  reality?  

Solar  Sunrise   Challenge    #8  

As  mesh  networks  deliver  automated  highways  to  improve    safety,  increase  capacity  and  reduce  congesJon,  how  will    we  manage  the  data  sharing  on  which  it  all  depends?  

Intelligent  Highways   Challenge  #9  

As  ciJes,  not  countries,  are  at  the  forefront  of  the  global  stage,    what  unique  products  and  services  that  address    

specific  surban  challenges  will  become  the  priority?  

Mega  City  States   Challenge  #10  

For  more  informa,on,  e-­‐books  and  to  add    your  view  into  the  mix,  see  futureagenda.org  

or  contact  Tim  directly  on  ,m.jones@futureagenda.org