LISBOA | TEATRO THALIA

28 NOVEMBRO 2017

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Tendências e Desafios no Horizonte 2O3O

Circular Economy: Concept & Trends

Alexandre LEMILLE@AlexLemille

1. Economic Strategies

2. Concept & Principles

3. The Economic Potential

4. Jobs, Activities and the Social Dimension

The Circular Economy: Concept & Trends

Content

Economic Strategies

Wrongly designed system

TAKE DISPOSEMAKE

WASTEENERGYLABOUR

$

WASTEENERGYLABOUR

$

WASTERes.

ENERGY$

Economic Strategies

Functions of throughput

Producer

Ownership

E X T E R N A L I T I E S ?

ResponsibilityTransfer &

Externalities

Economic Strategies

$Purchaser

$Authority

$Taxpayer

Traffic congestion | Air Pollution | Health Impact | Noise | Death/Injuries | Multiple Waste | etc…

$ $

Economic Strategies80% thrown while huge needs

Concept & Principles

A Circular EconomyPreserve stock quality & manage flows

GDP (flow)

Sou

rce:

Gia

rin

i& S

tah

el, 1

98

9

Level is ignored!

Outflow is ignored

!

How we measureour economy today

How it should bemeasured!

Welfare / Wealth / Knowledge(stock)

A Circular EconomyStock is everywhere

A Circular EconomyA resource-efficient economy

Reuse of vast amount of material

=

Foundation of Economic Growth

Restorative by design & intentionUsing renewable energyAway from chemicalsEradicating wasteRebuilding natural capital

Biosphere

Limited

USERS

Unlimited

Leased Accessed

Shared

No More Waste Away from Recycling Labour is Valued

$

$

$

$

$$Durables: Technical Nutrients

Design-to-fit: optimised systems

Returned

Biosphere

CONSUMERS

Away from hazardous chemicals Nutrients are Beneficial Rebuilding natural capital

$

$$

$

$

Consumables: Biological NutrientsSafely back into the biosphere

Sou

rce:

Th

e El

len

Mac

Art

hu

r Fo

un

dat

ion

/WR

AP/

WEF

By 2030:+3M EU Jobs

-520,000 Unempl.

By 2050:$4.5tn WWD

Depending on countries:

From -40% to -70% less CO2

Rebuilding of Capital:

In Priority: Natural

Decoupling is the Imperative

A Circular Economy

Sou

rce:

Th

e U

N E

nvi

ron

men

t, A

ccen

ture

C.E. Business Models+

New capabilities+

New technologies

Leading to new value chains: Less resource supply risks More customer value creation More attractive cost structures

A Circular EconomyNew Business Models

Sou

rce:

Sit

ra

A Circular Economy6 Business Strategies

A Circular EconomyRecycling is only the last resort

Reducing materials to mashed-up fragmentsDown-cyclingSecondary material stream for a linear economy

Does not value materialsDoes not drive material enhancementUses too much energyA good alternative solution todayNot a solution that copes with waste volumes

Sou

rce:

Sit

ra

A Circular EconomyAdvances across the Globe

The Economic Potential

Sou

rce:

Th

e El

len

Mac

Art

hu

r Fo

un

dat

ion

Huge material savings (€630bn/y (E.U.))

Economic Potential of Circularity

Market Trends

Economic Potential of Circularity

Towards Optimization of Value

Economic Potential of Circularity

Benefits according to “Growth Within”

Economic Potential of Circularity

Sou

rce:

Gro

wth

Wit

hin

, Sys

tem

IQ

EU-27, Indexed (2012 = 100)

Current

development

scenario

Circular scenario

Next Wave of Investment Themes

Economic Potential of Circularity

Sou

rce:

Th

e EM

F, S

yste

mIQ

Investments up to 20251

Cross-cutting opportunity

Opportunities Identified

Sou

rce:

McK

inse

y, G

aia

Co

nsu

ltin

g

The Case of Finland

The Case of Finland

Examples: Policy Measures

The Case of Finland

Global Unique Roadmap

Government Vision: World Leader in Circular Economy

Added Value Potential: 3bn Euros for the Economy

Additional Jobs: 75,000 (Club of Rome)

Takeaways & Expectations

Sou

rce:

Sit

ra

The Case of Finland

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

Sou

rce:

Gre

en A

llian

ce, S

itra

Product Sold for Reuse & Remanufacture

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

ReUse

Remanufacture

RecycleMaintenance

ReMarketing

Repair

Portugal Portugal or RoW

RePurpose

ReDistribute

ɛ

CO2

Disassembly

National job creation

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

Valued Extracted Tax

Sou

rce:

Clu

b o

f R

om

e

Decoupling Strategies:

Renewable Case Energy-efficiency Material-efficiency

All Three Combined

Emission Reduction

-50% Around -30% -3% to -10% -66% to -69%

Additional Jobs+15,000 (SW+FL);

+50,000 (NL);+100,000 (FR+SP)

+15,000 (FL);+20,000 (SW);+100,000 (NL);

+200,000 (FR+SP)

+50,000 (SW+FL);+100,000 (NL);+200,000 (SP);+300,000 (FR);

+75,000 (FL);+100,000 (SW);+200,000 (NL);+400,000 (SP);+500,000 (FR);

Trade Balance Effects

+0.3% to +0.7%of GDP

0% to +0.4%of GDP

+1% to +2%of GDP

+1.5% to +3%of GDP

+

+

+

+

+

+

Winners: jobs & climate

Up to 70%Less CO2Emissions

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

Cascades

Farming,Collection

Regeneration

Biogas

Maintain/Prolong

Reuse /redistribute

Refurbish/remanufacture

Recycle

Sou

rce:

A. L

emill

e, a

da

pte

d f

rom

th

e “B

utt

erfl

y D

iag

ram

” o

f th

e El

len

Mac

Art

hu

r Fo

un

dat

ion

BIOSPHERE TECHNOSPHERE

Extraction of Biochemical Feedstock

HUMANSPHERE

Biosphere

BiochemicalFeedstock

Share

Stock & Flows of Energies & Resources

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

Hand-repaired, SwedenProlonging life via repairs

VAT drop: from 25% to 12%

Humans assisting, GermanyRobots could not keep up withMercedes S-Class requires too

many customisations

Manpower is enabled

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

OCV: Optimising Circular Value

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

Measuring our 10 Priority Oucomes:

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