terrestrial pollutant runoff to the great barrier reef: an ... · the great barrier reef...

Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (2012) xxx–xxx

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Marine Pollution Bulletin

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Terrestrial pollutant runoff to the Great Barrier Reef: An update of issues,priorities and management responses

J.E. Brodie a,⇑, F.J. Kroon b, B. Schaffelke c, E.C. Wolanski a, S.E. Lewis a, M.J. Devlin a, I.C. Bohnet d,Z.T. Bainbridge a, J. Waterhouse a, A.M. Davis a

a Catchment to Reef Research Group, Australian Centre for Tropical Freshwater Research, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australiab CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, P.O. Box 780, Atherton, Qld 4883, Australiac Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville MC, Qld 4810, Australiad CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, P.O. Box 12139, Earlville BC, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o

Keywords:Catchment managementWater qualityLand-derived pollutionSedimentsNutrientsPesticides

0025-326X/$ - see front matter � 2011 Elsevier Ltd. Adoi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.12.012

⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 7 4781 6435; faxE-mail addresses: [email protected] (J.E. Brodi

(F.J. Kroon), [email protected] (B. Schaffelke), eWolanski), [email protected] (S.E. Lewis), micDevlin), [email protected] (I.C. Bohnet), zoe.Bainbridge), [email protected] (J. Waterho(A.M. Davis).

Please cite this article in press as: Brodie, J.E., eresponses. Mar. Pollut. Bull. (2012), doi:10.1016

a b s t r a c t

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is a World Heritage Area and contains extensive areas of coral reef, seagrassmeadows and fisheries resources. From adjacent catchments, numerous rivers discharge pollutants fromagricultural, urban, mining and industrial activity. Pollutant sources have been identified and include sus-pended sediment from erosion in cattle grazing areas; nitrate from fertiliser application on crop lands;and herbicides from various land uses. The fate and effects of these pollutants in the receiving marineenvironment are relatively well understood. The Australian and Queensland Governments respondedto the concerns of pollution of the GBR from catchment runoff with a plan to address this issue in2003 (Reef Plan; updated 2009), incentive-based voluntary management initiatives in 2007 (Reef Rescue)and a State regulatory approach in 2009, the Reef Protection Package. This paper reviews new researchrelevant to the catchment to GBR continuum and evaluates the appropriateness of current managementresponses.

� 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Degradation of coastal and marine ecosystems due to the effectsof terrestrially derived pollution is a universal issue and the subjectof intense management activity (Doney, 2010). The majority of cor-al reefs around the world are threatened by human activities(Burke et al., 2011) and many show signs of degradation (e.g.Pandolfi et al., 2003). In many areas reefs are exposed to a combi-nation of stresses including destructive fishing practices, overfish-ing or loss of herbivorous fish and other grazing organisms,increased discharge from the land of sediment, nutrients andpesticides, coral predator outbreaks linked to trophic changes inthe system, increased bleaching associated with global climatechange, and increased incidence of and severity of coral diseases(Burke et al., 2011; Maina et al., 2011). These pressures have ledto precipitous declines in coral cover from values near 60% morethan 50 years ago to 20% recently, and led to persistent shifts from

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t al. Terrestrial pollutant runoff/j.marpolbul.2011.12.012

coral dominance to non-coral and algal dominance (Hughes et al.,2010a; Mumby et al., 2007; Norström et al., 2009).

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is situated on the north-east coastof Australia (Fig. 1). It has the status of a Marine Park under jointAustralian (Federal) and Queensland State Government arrange-ments and has been a declared World Heritage Area in 1981. De-spite this protected status, the coral cover on the GBR has alsodeclined, albeit the timing and trajectory of the decline is in somedispute (Bellwood et al., 2004; Bruno and Selig, 2007; Hughes et al.,2011; Sweatman and Syms, 2011; Sweatman et al., 2011; Osborneet al., 2011). The causes of this decline are manifold and are tosome degree reef-specific: terrestrial runoff of sediment and nutri-ents with the associated crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks(Brodie et al., 2005, 2008a,b, 2011; De’ath and Fabricius, 2010;DeVantier et al., 2006; Fabricius, 2005; Fabricius et al., 2005,2010); coral bleaching and mortality associated with climatechange (Berkelmans et al., 2004; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007;Hughes et al., 2007) and coral diseases (Haapkylä et al., 2011) havebeen implicated. Ocean acidification and its effects on coral calcifi-cation is a newer threat just becoming apparent on the GBR (Coo-per et al., 2008; De’ath et al., 2009). In addition, these stressors donot act in isolation and interactions between these stressors arevery likely but not yet well studied (Borges and Gypens, 2010).

Other ecosystems such as coastal seagrass meadows are alsobelieved to be under pressure in parts of the GBR World Heritage

to the Great Barrier Reef: An update of issues, priorities and management

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Fig. 1. The Great Barrier Reef catchments, primary land use and Regional Natural Resource Management Regions.

2 J.E. Brodie et al. / Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (2012) xxx–xxx

Area due to chronic effects of declining water quality as a result ofriver discharge (McKenzie et al., 2010) although overall seagrasshealth in the GBR region is seen as being in better condition than

Please cite this article in press as: Brodie, J.E., et al. Terrestrial pollutant runoffresponses. Mar. Pollut. Bull. (2012), doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.12.012

many other global regions (Waycott et al., 2009). Mangrove forestsare generally considered to be in good condition subject only tosmall localised losses from coastal development (Schaffelke et al.,



J.E. Brodie et al. / Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (2012) xxx–xxx 3

2005) but well protected from physical removal and disturbancethrough Queensland Fisheries legislation.

In 2008 the current state of knowledge regarding the degrada-tion of GBR ecosystems due to terrestrial pollutant runoff was re-viewed by a group of scientists and a ‘Scientific ConsensusStatement’ was prepared for the Queensland Government (Brodieet al., 2008a,b). The conclusions of the Consensus Statement were:

1. Water discharged from rivers to the GBR continues to be of poorquality in many locations.

2. Land derived contaminants, including suspended sediments,nutrients and pesticides are present in the GBR at concentra-tions likely to cause environmental harm.

3. There is strengthened evidence of the causal relationshipbetween water quality and coastal and marine ecosystemhealth.

4. The health of freshwater ecosystems is impaired by agriculturalland use, hydrological change, riparian degradation and weedinfestation.

5. Current management interventions are not effectively solvingthe problem.

6. Climate change and major land use change will have confound-ing influences on GBR health.

7. Effective science coordination to collate, synthesise and inte-grate disparate knowledge across disciplines is urgently needed.

One of the major challenges facing us in management of terres-trial pollution of the GBR is to be able to set scientifically basedcatchment targets which we are confident that, if achieved, willlead to the recovery of GBR ecosystems to a desired level. The onlyway of doing this is to have a robust modelling framework from thepaddock and management practice scale to the reef scale. Such amodel would allow us to robustly predict the effect of managementinterventions for reef health. Almost all of the current research ef-fort in the GBR water quality field, much of it discussed in this pa-per, is in some way adding to our ability to build this model.

In this paper, we will review the sources, fate and effects of in-creased terrestrial runoff to the coastal and inshore GBR as well asthe current management response, focusing on information since2008, and re-evaluate the statements in the Consensus Statementagainst this new information.

2. The GBR catchment area (GBRCA)

The catchment draining into the GBR contains 35 defined riverbasins covering an area of over 424,000 km2 (Furnas, 2003). Impor-tant land uses in the catchment (Fig. 1) include rangeland beefgrazing (314,000 km2), sugarcane cultivation (5700 km2), horticul-ture (630 km2), other cropping including grain and cotton cultiva-tion (11,600 km2), urban areas (2600 km2) and native forest(55,900 km2) (Waterhouse et al., 2009). Discharges of suspendedsolids, nutrients and pesticides from the catchment to the lagoonhas increased greatly over the last 200 years (McKergow et al.,2005a,b; Kroon et al., this volume) due to wide-scale agricultural,urban and mining development (Furnas, 2003; Waterhouse et al.,this volume).

3. River loads of suspended solids, nutrient and pesticides to theGBRWHA

The estimates of current and pre-European river loads of totalsuspended solids (TSS), nitrogen and phosphorus discharged fromthe GBRCA into the GBRWHA have been refined over the last threedecades. Water quality monitoring programs have been conductedat the end of catchments in the GBRCA since the early 1970s. Theobjectives of these programs vary and have ranged from legislative


requirements under the Queensland Water Act (2000), to providinginformation on sediment dynamics in river cross-sections duringhigh-flow, to supporting the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan(Reef Plan) 2003 and 2009 (Queensland Department of the Premierand Cabinet, 2003, 2009). The first river load estimates of TSS,nitrogen and phosphorus to the GBRWHA were derived fromtime-integration of monitored discharge and concentration data(Belperio, 1983; Furnas, 2003). Subsequent studies estimating riverloads to the GBRWHA have modelled diffuse sources and transportprocesses through a stream network, using SedNet (SedimentBudget River Network) and ANNEX (ANnual Nutrient EXport)(McKergow et al., 2005a,b; see also Cogle et al., 2006). Specifically,the SedNet model constructs budgets of the primary sources, storesand fluxes of fine, suspended sediment for each link in a river net-work (Wilkinson et al., 2009). The associated ANNEX module con-structs budgets of nitrogen and phosphorus, representingparticulate dissolved inorganic and dissolved organic forms (Younget al., 2001). In parallel, sediment, nutrient and herbicide loadsbased on monitoring data have been estimated using a variety ofmethods, with different load estimation techniques applied to dif-ferent basins, or to different sets of monitoring information perindividual basin (e.g. Brodie et al., 2009a; Joo et al., this volume;Kroon et al., this volume; Neil et al., 2002). Kroon et al. (this vol-ume) provides a comprehensive compilation of available catch-ment water quality and flow monitoring data across all basinsdraining to the GBR, as well as a synthesis of all pre-Europeanand current load estimates extending to all GBR basins.

3.1. Suspended sediment

The TSS supply to the GBR lagoon originates from the threeforms of erosion – hillslope, gully and streambank (McKergowet al., 2005a). Recent estimates indicate that since European settle-ment in the GBRCA (c. 1850), the mean annual TSS load to the GBRlagoon has increased by 5.5 times to 17,000 ktonnes/yr (Kroonet al., this volume). The large beef grazing dominated catchmentsof the Fitzroy and Burdekin contribute over 50% (7400 ktonnes/yr) to the mean annual anthropogenic (human caused) TSS loadof 14,000 ktonnes/yr to the GBR lagoon (Kroon et al., this volume).Hillslope erosion is generally considered to be the dominant sourcedue to low pasture cover (McKergow et al., 2005a), however, theimportance of gully erosion has been highlighted in recent re-search especially in some catchment locations (Bartley et al.,2010a,b; Tims et al., 2010; Wilkinson et al., in press; Hugheset al., 2011; Andrew Brooks, pers. com.). Erosion may be severein areas of cropping and urban development on high slope landsbut such areas are of small extent and present generally a local is-sue. Mining may also contribute (Lucas et al., 2010) but this is anunder-researched area.

3.2. Nutrients

Riverine discharge is the single largest source of nutrients to in-shore areas of the GBR lagoon (Furnas et al., 1997, in press). Othersources include atmospheric inputs following rainfall events(Furnas et al., 1995), planktonic and microphytobenthic nitrogenfixation (Furnas et al., 2011), Coral Sea upwelling (Furnas andMitchell, 1986), deposition of dust from storms generated in theinterior of Australia (Shaw et al., 2008), transport of nitrogen oxi-des from sugarcane fertiliser through the air (Paton-Walsh et al.,2011) and wind resuspension of nearshore sediments and theirassociated nutrients (Gagan et al., 1987; Walker and O’Donnell,1981).

Recent estimates indicate that since European settlement in theGBRCA, the mean annual total nitrogen (TN) load to the GBR lagoonhas increased by 5.7 times to 80,000 tonnes/yr (Kroon et al., this




volume). The anthropogenic nitrogen load comprises 11,000 ton-nes/yr dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), 6900 tonnes/yr of dis-solved organic nitrogen (DON), and 52,000 tonnes/yr ofparticulate nitrogen (PN). Similarly, the mean annual total phos-phorus (TP) load has increased by 8.9 times to 16,000 tonnes/yr,with the anthropogenic phosphorus loads comprising 800 tonnes/yr of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), 470 tonnes/yr of dis-solved organic phosphorus (DOP), and 13,000 tonnes/yr of particu-late phosphorus (PP). These nutrient increases are driven by theapplication of fertiliser on sugar cane, horticulture and other crop-ping areas in the GBRCA (Rayment, 2003; Waterhouse et al., thisvolume), and losses of particulate bound nutrients from agricul-tural and urban lands due to soil erosion (Brodie and Mitchell,2005; McKergow et al., 2005b; Waterhouse et al., this volume).

Since European settlement, the predominant form of nitrogenthat is delivered to the GBR lagoon has changed. Discharge of nitro-gen from natural landscapes is predominantly in the form of DON(Brodie and Mitchell, 2005; Harris, 2001), including in runoff fromundisturbed forests in the GBR catchment (Brodie and Mitchell,2006). In contrast, nitrogen discharge from agricultural and urbanlands is dominated by DIN derived from fertiliser and sewagewastes (Mitchell et al., 2009; Thorburn et al., 2011b), and PN de-rived from soil erosion (Brodie and Mitchell, 2005). This shift froma predominantly DON discharge to a predominantly PN and DINdischarge may cause noticeable changes in coral and macroalgalcommunities (Fabricius, 2005).

3.3. Pesticides

Pesticides would have been absent in runoff from the GBRCAprior to European settlement. Since then, recent estimates suggestthat at least 30,000 kg/yr of herbicides are exported to theGBRWHA (Kroon et al., this volume). This estimate comprises pho-tosystem-II (PSII) inhibiting herbicides only (atrazine, ametryn,hexazinone, diuron, simazine and tebuthiuron), for which monitor-ing information has become available in recent years. It is likely anunderestimate of the total pesticide load to the GBRWHA, as not allpesticides known to be used in the GBR catchment and leaking intoits waterways are currently being monitored. Better methods ofestimating loads of pesticides from unevenly distributed land usesacross a catchment are also being developed (Cook and Knight,2011). Atrazine, ametryn, hexazinone, and diuron originate pre-dominantly from the sugarcane industry (Bainbridge et al. 2009a;Davis et al., in press, this volume), with atrazine also being usedin grains cropping, and tebuthiuron and simazine originating fromthe beef grazing industry and forestry plantations, respectively (Le-wis et al., 2009a; Shaw et al., 2010; Waterhouse et al., this volume).As a result of the initiation of the Reef Plan Paddock to Reef Inte-grated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program (Paddock toReef Program; see Carroll et al., this volume) more systematicmonitoring of pesticide residues across the GBR and its catchmentshave shown very widespread contamination of rivers and streamsdraining to the GBR and estuarine waterways with a range of pes-ticides. These measurements show frequent exceedances of Aus-tralian water quality guidelines often to the extent of 10–50times the guideline (trigger value) for pesticides such as atrazine,diuron and metolachlor (Smith et al., this volume). More effectiveways of detecting and measuring organism pesticide exposurehave been developed including the use of biomarkers in crabs(van Oosterom et al., 2010) and phytotoxicity bioassays (Shawet al., this volume).

3.4. Improving load estimation and source attribution

Since 2008 a number of research studies have and will allow usto improve the accuracy and estimate of uncertainty in our


end-of-river load estimates, and more accurately attribute sourcesof pollutants to particular sub-catchments, landuses and landscapetypes. These improvements are summarised below.

(1) Improved load estimation through monitoring. For example,Wallace et al. (2008, 2009) showed that in overbank flowconditions in the Tully River a large proportion of the loadbypassed the river gauge sampling location, thus contribut-ing an additional 30–50% to the loads, including 47% and 32%to the loads of N and P, respectively. Wallace et al. (this vol-ume) have now extended this analysis of underestimation ofdischarge loads to other rivers in the GBRCA with variableincreased loads above those at the gauge depending on rivertype and geomorphology.

(2) Improved modelling. For example, Bartley et al. (this vol-ume) reviewed existing research to provide greatlyimproved land-runoff concentration values from specificlanduse types for model parametisation. Lynam et al.(2010) showed that Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) couldbe used to assess the probabilities of changed managementpractice scenarios improving sediment and nutrient loadsat end of catchment while Shenton et al. (2010) showedhow BBNs could link improved management to marine eco-system outcomes.

(3) Improved load estimation using more sophisticated algo-rithms that better account for the variable flow and concen-tration profiles found in northern Australian rivers andenabling better estimates of load estimation uncertainty(for example, Joo et al., this volume; Kuhnert et al., inreview).

(4) Improved identification of specific catchment areas, sub-catchments, landuses and erosion processes that are thesources of contaminants reaching the river mouth. Forexample, the sources and transport of suspended sedimentin the Fitzroy River catchment delivered to downstreamenvironments including the GBR has now been well docu-mented (Amos et al., 2009; Douglas et al., 2006a,b, 2008,2010; Hughes et al., 2009; Smith et al., 2008). One importantfinding was that most of the fine sediment (<10 lm) trans-ported from the catchment to the inner-shelf region of theGBR during flood events was sourced to Tertiary basaltic soiltypes in the north-western region of this river catchment(Douglas et al., 2008; Hughes et al., 2009; Packett et al.,2009; Smith et al., 2008). Comparable studies in the Burde-kin catchment (Bainbridge et al., 2010; Maher et al., 2008)showed that the bulk of the suspended sediment reachingthe mouth of the Burdekin River came from only two outof the five major sub-catchments. Studies in cropping landshave clearly shown that the overwhelming source of DINdischarge is from fertiliser use (Mitchell et al., 2009;Waterhouse et al., this volume; Thorburn et al., 2011b;Thorburn and Wilkinson, in press).

4. Transport and fate of pollutants in the GBRWHA

4.1. The dispersal of land-derived pollutants

Flooding river discharges into the GBR lagoon typically formextensive plumes (Brodie et al., 2010; Devlin and Brodie, 2005;Devlin and Schaffelke, 2009). The plumes of the 2010/2011 wetseason were extraordinarily prolonged and covered a large area(Fig. 2). Short-term concentrations of both particulate and dis-solved nutrients in flood volumes are extreme compared to non-flood conditions (in the range 2–30 lM nitrogen and 0.1–1 lMphosphorus) (Devlin and Brodie, 2005). However, the distributionand movement of the individual constituents in a flood plume



Fig. 2. MODIS Satellite image showing plume waters extending from the Fitzroy River (river mouth near Rockhampton) and the Burnett and Mary Rivers (river mouths nearBundaberg and Maryborough respectively) on 25 January 2011. The red line shows the estimated extent of the plumes which extends up to 100 km offshore in somelocations. Source: James Cook University.


varies considerably between the wet and dry tropic rivers. WetTropic Rivers (e.g. Tully River) have some flow throughout thedry season and regular, high flow in the wet season with rapidflushing times. The Wet Tropic Rivers are generally fresh to themouth of the river, where they discharge into the adjacent coastalseawater. Dry Tropics Rivers (e.g. Burdekin River) have negligibleor no flow during the dry season and can have substantial up-stream tidal seawater intrusions. The wet season discharges ofthese rivers vary enormously between years, and can form verylarge flood plumes extending far into the GBR lagoon. Flood plumesmove in response to prevailing weather conditions along andacross the coastal shelf with the plume often forming an estuarinemixing zone far away from the coast.

River runoff also transports agricultural pollutants such aspesticides (predominantly herbicides) into the GBR lagoon. High


concentrations of herbicides have been detected in flood plumewaters, which for periods of weeks exceed water quality guidelinesfor the protection of aquatic life (Bainbridge et al., 2009a; Brodieet al., this volume; Lewis et al., 2009a, this volume-a; Shaw et al.,2010; Kennedy et al., this volume; Shaw et al., this volume). Thecomposition of compounds indicated their land use source andmost herbicides were associated with sugar cane cultivation (Lewiset al., 2009a).

4.2. Fate of pollutants in the marine environment

The fate of the discharged pollutants in the marine environmenthas been elucidated through monitoring and modelling activitiesas well as the analyses of remote sensing imagery (e.g. Devlinet al., this volume; Brodie et al., 2010; Devlin and Brodie, 2005;




Devlin and Schaffelke, 2009; Lewis et al., 2009a). Material dynam-ics can be partially understood from studies of the concentrationchanges occurring in the plume as mixing with seawater pro-gresses (Dagg et al., 2004). Most suspended solids and particulatenutrients settle from the plume quickly and are deposited withina few kilometres of the river mouth (e.g. for the Fitzroy River seeWebster and Ford, 2010). In plumes from the Burdekin River, sus-pended solids concentrations can drop from more than 500 mg L�1

in the river at zero salinity close to the river mouth to less than10 mg L�1 at salinities around 5–10 psu (Bainbridge et al., this vol-ume). Fine benthic sediment is continuously resuspended in shal-low waters (<10 m) by the prevailing south east wind regime andtidal currents and transported north along the coast (Larcombeet al., 1995; Radke et al., 2010). Coarser sediments are mostly re-tained near the coast in sand bars, beach ridges and subaqueousdunes (Ryan et al., 2007).

Dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations are relatively highin peak flow conditions in the GBR rivers, particularly those riversthat drain fertilised agriculture (e.g. Mitchell et al., 2005, 2009).Dissolved nutrients move conservatively through the low salinityareas of the estuarine plume, indicating very little biological up-take. However, in areas of higher salinity (25–36 psu) towardsthe offshore boundary of the plume, there is higher biological up-take of nutrients (Brodie et al., 2010; Devlin and Brodie, 2005;Devlin and Schaffelke, 2009). Dissolved inorganic nutrients arenot taken up biologically close to the river mouth because phyto-plankton growth is light limited in the highly turbid plume waters(suspended solids >10 mg L�1) (Turner et al., 1990). Thus, inorganicnutrients are transported over long distances, often greater than50 km, exposing inshore reefs to high inorganic nutrient concen-trations for short periods of time (Brodie et al., 2006; Devlin andBrodie, 2005; Devlin et al., 2010; Rohde et al., 2006; Schaffelkeand Slivkoff, 2007; Schroeder et al., 2009). However, the particulatenutrients are initially transported only short distances from theriver mouth before ‘settling out’ from the plume through gravitycontrolled processes and flocculation (Bainbridge et al., this vol-ume). Satellite images and plume sampling reveal that algalblooms develop when turbidity declines to values of less than10 mg L�1 and clear skies allow increased phytoplankton photo-synthesis (usually 2–5 days after the peak discharge occurs)(Bainbridge et al., this volume; Brodie et al., 2010).

Recently, coral proxies (Ba, Y, Mn) have provided evidence of in-creased sediment export to the GBR lagoon from the Burdekin Riv-er catchment (Lewis et al., 2007; McCulloch et al., 2003) whilenitrogen isotopes in the (insoluble) organic component of the coralskeleton have been used to quantify increases in nutrient loadsfrom the Pioneer River (Jupiter et al., 2007, 2008; Marion, 2007).Changes in the nitrogen isotopic signature and coral nitrogen con-centrations were correlated with increased fertiliser application inthe Pioneer River catchment although additional studies fromother parts of the GBR as well as understanding N isotope dynam-ics in river water plumes are required to validate these findings.

Further discussion on long term water quality conditions in theGBR, including an overview of pesticides in both flood plume anddry season conditions, are included below in Section 5.

4.3. Exposure assessment

Initial assessments of the dispersal of pollutants in the GBRfrom river discharge were carried out using relatively simple expo-sure models, based mainly on river pollutant loads and physicalcriteria such as distance to the coast (Devlin et al., 2003; Maughanet al., 2008; Maughan and Brodie, 2009), and qualitative assess-ments using remote sensing imagery combined with aerial surveysand vessel-based mapping (Brodie, 1995; Devlin et al., 2001;Devlin and Brodie, 2005; Wolanski and Jones, 1981). The


combination of traditional concurrent surface water samplingand image analysis of plume distribution for parameters such assuspended sediments and chlorophyll a (Chl a) (Devlin and Schaff-elke, 2009) has allowed for the quantitative assessment of the de-gree of exposure of GBR reefs (and other ecosystems) to floodwaters (Brodie et al., 2007, 2010; Devlin et al., 2010, this volume;Rohde et al., 2006).

We now know that river water plumes reach further offshoreinto the GBR lagoon than previously thought (Brodie et al., 2010;Devlin et al., this volume; Devlin and Schaffelke, 2009). A combina-tion of data from flood-specific and from long-term, ambient waterquality sampling link river discharge of pollutants to ecosystemexposure and risk (Devlin et al., this volume; Wolanski and De’ath,2005; Wooldridge et al., 2006). Inner-shelf reefs adjacent to thehigh rainfall Wet Tropics region are exposed regularly (one to threetimes per year) to a combination of low salinity water, suspendedsediments, particulate and dissolved nutrients and pesticides(Bainbridge et al., 2009a; Devlin et al., this volume; Devlin andSchaffelke, 2009; Lewis et al., this volume-a; Wolanski et al.,2008) while inner-shelf reefs of the regions to the south of theWet Tropics (Burdekin, Mackay, Fitzroy and Burnett regions) areexposed less frequently but to larger river plumes that often travelgreat distances (Devlin et al., this volume). In comparison with WetTropics inner-shelf reefs, mid and outer shelf reefs of the Wet Tro-pics are exposed less frequently and to more diluted pollutants. Inthe southern GBR, mid and outer shelf reefs rarely experience riverplume influence (Devlin et al., this volume).

Increasingly sophisticated tools such as the SLIM oceanographymodel and the HOME ecohydrology model (Costanza et al., 2011;Lambrechts et al., 2010; Richmond and Wolanski, 2011), the Chlo-roSim model (Wooldridge et al., 2006) and the SHOC model(Robson et al., 2008) are now being regularly used to assess expo-sure and response of marine ecosystems to land run-off in the GBR.The SHOC model has recently been developed into a three-dimen-sional baroclinic hydrodynamic model of the whole GBR lagoonwith accurate forcing for offshore ocean boundaries (R. Brinkman,pers comm). Ultimately, the linking of receiving waters modelswith end-of-catchment loads will allow the connection of pollutantloads to ecosystem response. For example the SLIM model, coupledwith long-term water turbidity data from Cleveland Bay in the cen-tral GBR, revealed that tradewinds only slowly transport terrige-nous fine inshore sediments during the dry season out of thebay, leading to net accumulation (Lambrechts et al., 2010). BeforeEuropean settlement, Cleveland Bay corals grew in waters withclarity sufficient for benthic production for at least 200 days a yearas opposed to only 60–90 days at present (Brodie et al., this vol-ume; Lambrechts et al., 2010), demonstrating the influence of hu-man-induced increased riverine fine sediment inflow to the GBRlagoon.

4.4. Pollutant residence times

Residence time, i.e. the amount of time that a parcel of waterspends in a semi-enclosed waterbody before it is transported tothe open ocean, is a widely used metric to understand and predictthe effects of contaminants in estuarine and coastal waters(Jickells, 1998). Longer water residence times promote an increas-ing build-up of land-derived pollutants. Perhaps the most impor-tant factor determining susceptibility of coastal ecosystems toadverse effects from land-derived pollutants is the amount ofexchange between the water body and the open ocean. Thus waterbodies with low exchange rates with the ocean seem to be partic-ularly vulnerable to the effects of pollution.

There have been a number of previous studies of residencetimes or flushing times of water (and implicitly of pollutants) inthe GBR lagoon. Hancock et al. (2006) used radium isotopes as




tracers to estimate that inner lagoon (water) flushing times in thesouthern GBR were 18 days and in the central GBR 45 days. Luicket al. (2007) used hydrodynamic models with simulated neutrallybuoyant tracer particles to estimate that residence times can varyfrom ca. 1 month to 1 year. They note that these times are applica-ble to contaminants only if the substances are in solution in thewater column. Wang et al. (2007) used salinity (from archival re-cords) as a tracer to assess flushing times of solutes and pollutantsin the central GBR lagoon. Choukroun et al. (2010) used drifters de-ployed in the western Coral Sea to assess surface circulation in thisarea and residence times in the GBR. The consensus of these stud-ies is that water residence times for the GBR are relatively shortand rapid flushing with residence times of the order of weeks upto possibly one year. However, Andutta et al. (2011) have shownthat in bays along the coast hypersaline waters escape sidewaysby the residual longshore southward currents, and are transferredfrom bay to bay until steady-state conditions are reached afterabout 100 days, indicating a longer residence time of inshorewaters.

The residence times and flushing rates of pollutants, especiallythose that behave in a non-conservative mixing regime, are notnecessarily linked to the movement of the water (Brodie et al., thisvolume). The key pollutants discharged to the GBR (suspended sol-ids, reactive nitrogen, phosphorus and herbicide residues) behavein a non-conservative way during transport and mixing (Brodieet al., this volume). The bulk of these pollutants are exported intothe GBR during a period of a few days per year during river floodsand remain in the GBR lagoon for long periods (measured in yearsto decades) and are biologically active and capable of producingadverse effects on GBR ecosystems for long periods (years to dec-ades; Brodie et al., this volume).

5. Spatial and temporal distribution of pollutants in the GBR

The water quality in the GBR lagoon is characterised by largetemporal and spatial variations. On a spatial scale, distinctcross-shelf gradients from the coast to the shelf-break are the mostnoteworthy feature. Concentrations of particulate water qualityvariables such as TSS, PN and PP, Chl a and Secchi depth (a measureof water clarity) are on average 0.6- to 5-fold higher in the coastaland inshore areas compared to the offshore lagoon, especially adja-cent to the Wet Tropics and Burdekin regions in the central GBR(Brodie et al., 2007; De’ath and Fabricius, 2008, 2010). These gradi-ents are less pronounced in the far Northern region of the GBR(Brodie et al., 2007; De’ath and Fabricius, 2008, 2010) and alsofor dissolved nutrients (Furnas et al., 1995, 1997). Repeated lo-cal-scale water quality measurements in the inshore lagoon alsoshow distinct water quality gradients away from the coast (Cooperet al., 2007; Schaffelke et al., 2003, this volume). Modelling of thecatchment to lagoon connection showed a strong correlation be-tween the North to South enrichment gradient of Chl a and theconcentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in riverine floodwaters (Wooldridge et al., 2006). Mid and outer shelf concentra-tions of Chl a also vary from south to north, but not in a consistentlatitudinal gradient and are likely to be driven by external factorssuch as upwelling, currents and tidal mixing (Brodie et al., 2007).

On a temporal scale, the water quality in the coastal and inshoreGBR lagoon can change dramatically for short periods of time. Ele-vated concentrations of nutrients (both dissolved and particulate)and of suspended solids are observed in waters affected by riverineflood plumes during the summer wet season (Devlin and Brodie,2005; Devlin and Schaffelke, 2009; Devlin et al., this volume)(see also discussion in Sections 4.2 and 4.3) and after resuspensionof bottom sediments by strong winds or tidal currents (Furnas,1989). The nutrients introduced or released during these eventsare rapidly taken up by pelagic and benthic algae and microbial


communities (Alongi and McKinnon, 2005), sometimes fuellingshort-lived phytoplankton blooms and high levels of organic pro-duction (Furnas, 1989; Furnas et al., 2005, 2011). This organic mat-ter is cycled through the marine food web and transformed e.g.into marine snow particles that may be deposited on benthiccommunities, such as coral reefs, and influence their structure,productivity, and health for long periods; this ultimately decouplesevent-driven inputs of nutrients from their long-term ecosystemeffects (see for example, Anthony and Fabricius, 2000; Fabriciusand Wolanski, 2000; Fabricius et al., 2003).

The variability of water quality parameters in the inshore GBRlagoon is influenced by a complex interplay of these temporaland spatial factors (Schaffelke et al., this volume). Concentrationsof nutrients, suspended sediments and Chl a are influenced by sea-son with higher concentrations during the summer months, espe-cially during years with high rainfall and at sites exposed to riverrunoff. During winter, water quality variables, especially nutrients,show very low concentrations (i.e. close to or below detection lim-its), except for periods of strong winds leading to resuspension ofsettled fine sediments which intermittently increases water tur-bidity (Schaffelke et al., this volume). Compared to other coral reefareas (mainly in the Caribbean and Florida), water column concen-trations of suspended solids, Chl a and soluble reactive phosphorusare higher in the inshore GBR, while concentrations of dissolvednitrogen are lower (see references in Schaffelke et al., this volume).

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal extent of pesticide dis-tribution in GBR waters has expanded considerably in recent years.Monitoring using the time-integrating passive sampler devices(Shaw and Müller, 2005) detected low levels of herbicides at allsampling sites in the inshore GBR lagoon throughout the year, gen-erally with higher concentrations in the wet season (Kennedy et al.,this volume; Shaw et al., 2010). Herbicides generally also showeddistinct cross-shelf gradients with higher concentrations close tothe coast, as did other water quality constituents (see above).While herbicide concentrations do not exceed water quality guide-lines during most of the year, they are still detectable, and the con-sequences for marine life of low level chronic exposure to amixture of herbicides are unknown (see risk assessment in Lewiset al., this volume-a). The detection of herbicides during the dryseason is surprising. Only in the Wet Tropics region, where riversare flowing throughout the year albeit with much reduced flowduring the dry season, can some export of herbicides be expected.However, the persistence of pesticides in tropical marine water isunfortunately very poorly understood. It is possible that com-pounds adsorb to settling particulate matter, which would reducelight-dependent degradation, and are intermittently resuspendedback into the water column by wind. Longer than expected persis-tence of herbicides is also indicated by finding detectable concen-trations of herbicides in the far Northern GBR (Kennedy et al., thisvolume), far distant from their likely agricultural sources. Theseherbicides are likely transported northward by longshore watercurrents (e.g. Luick et al., 2007) from agricultural catchmentsources adjacent to the central GBR.

6. Ecological effects of pollutants in the GBRWHA

Riverine loads of excess nutrients, sediments and other pollu-tants clearly influence the water quality in the coastal inshoreGBR. This has changed the environmental conditions for GBR spe-cies and ecosystems both in the long-term, i.e. chronic changes inmarine areas exposed to land runoff from developed catchmentssince European settlement, and intermittently, i.e. acute changesafter major flood events. The understanding of the effects of waterquality changes on GBR species and ecosystems has improvedenormously over the last decade. Recent authoritative reviews are




available of the evidence for causal relationships between waterquality change and ecosystem health for corals, seagrasses andmangroves (e.g. Brodie et al., 2008b) and of the effects of eutrophi-cation and increased sedimentation on coral reefs and factors influ-encing the susceptibility and resilience of reefs to these stressors(Brodie et al., 2011; Fabricius, 2011). The key findings of these re-views and more recent work are briefly summarised here.

6.1. Seagrasses

Long-term monitoring indicates that intertidal seagrass mead-ows in the GBR are currently in a state of decline (McKenzieet al., 2010). The symptoms of this decline are many sites with re-duced seagrass abundance, shrinking meadow area, reduced seedproduction and increased epiphyte loads. The environmental con-ditions at many sites point towards light limitation of seagrassesand nutrient enrichment, which is also reflected in long term in-creases of seagrass tissue nutrient content, particularly in theWet Tropics and Burdekin regions (McKenzie et al., 2010; Mellorset al., 2005). The most common cause of seagrass loss in the coastaland inshore GBR is the reduction of light availability (Collier et al.,this volume), principally caused by chronic and intermittent in-creases in suspended sediments and organic particles leading to in-creased turbidity (Schaffelke et al., 2005). In contrast, the directeffects of increased dissolved nutrients on GBR seagrass healthare less understood but current nutrient loadings in the GBR seemto have not reached critical levels for seagrasses (Waycott et al.,2005). The herbicide diuron, which is commonly found in GBRcoastal and inshore waters (see above) adversely affects seagrassproductivity at concentrations such as those measured in floodplumes (McMahon et al., 2005; Haynes et al., 2000) but the roleof herbicides in the currently recognised seagrass decline in theGBR is unknown. The capacity of seagrass meadows to recoverfrom the decline cannot be predicted but will be controlled bythe interactions between light availability, nutrient loads and theavailability of seeds to form the foundation of new populations(McKenzie et al., 2010).

6.2. Mangrove and benthic microalgal ecosystems

Only few studies have focused on the effects of changing waterquality on mangroves in the GBR region. Significant increases inmangrove areas along the GBR coast have been reported in recentdecades, correlated with catchment development such as vegeta-tion clearing causing higher sediment loads in runoff and the con-struction of a major river barrage (on the Fitzroy River) reducingriver flows (see review in Schaffelke et al., 2005). The unusualdieback of a mangrove species in the Mackay region from themid-1990s to the early 2000s was initially hypothesised to be asso-ciated with the high levels of diuron and other herbicides presentin mangrove sediments and porewater, and in stream/drain watersflowing into mangrove areas (Duke et al., 2005; Duke, 2008). How-ever, recent surveys of the affected mangrove communities haveshown an overall improvement in their health despite herbicidelevels remaining high at some sites (Wake, pers. comm.). Theseconflicting findings suggest that cause and effect relationships forthese diebacks are yet to be fully understood.

The effect of herbicides on benthic microalgae has been studiedby Magnusson et al. (2008, 2010, this volume). They found thatgrowth rates and photosynthesis in two tropical benthic microal-gae; Navicula sp. (Heterokontophyta) and Nephroselmis pyriformis(Chlorophyta) were affected at diuron concentrations that havebeen detected in coastal areas of the GBR. For the three PSII-inhibit-ing herbicides – diuron, hexazinone and atrazine – the order oftoxicity (EC50 range) was: diuron (16–33 nM) > hexazinone(25–110 nM) > atrazine (130–620 nM) for both algal species


(Magnusson et al., 2008). Binary mixtures of herbicides showedadditive toxicity (Magnusson et al., 2010) and longer exposure stud-ies (4 weeks) to diuron in these microalgal communities showed thedevelopment of tolerance to diuron during this period, accompa-nied by a shift in species composition towards communitiesdominated by diatoms (Magnusson et al., this volume). This showedthat chronic pesticide pollution can induce shifts in communitystructure.

6.3. Coral reefs

Of the three ecosystem types discussed here, the responses ofcoral reefs to changed water quality are the best understood dueto a large, ongoing research effort, especially in the GBR (e.g.Cooper et al., 2009; Fabricius, 2011; Fabricius et al., this volume).Many coastal and inshore coral reefs around the world are affectedby eutrophication and increased sedimentation (Fabricius, 2005).Nutrient enrichment, increased turbidity and sedimentation, espe-cially of organic-rich suspended matter lead to trophic changes inthe ecosystem, reduced coral recruitment and diversity, thereplacement of corals by organisms that compete with corals forspace and resources such as macroalgae and filter feeders andmore frequent outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish(Brodie et al., 2005; Fabricius, 2005, 2011 and references therein;Fabricius et al., 2010; Wismer et al., 2009). Recent results also sug-gest that increasing suspended sediment in coral reef environ-ments may reduce settlement success or survival of coral reeffishes. This disruption of suitable habitat selection for juvenile fishmay compound the effects of habitat loss on coral reefs (Wengeret al., 2011).

The effects of chemical pollutants on reef-building corals wererecently reviewed by van Dam et al. (2010) and recent researchhas also looked at the potential effects of pesticides on foraminifera(van Dam et al., this volume) and reef fish (Botté et al., this vol-ume). While insecticides can affect survival, reproduction, andearly life stages of corals (Markey et al., 2007), these are rarely de-tected in GBR waters (Kennedy et al., this volume). In contrast, her-bicides are widely found in the coastal and inshore GBR waters (seeabove; Kennedy et al., this volume; Lewis et al., this volume-a).Corals can recover from short-term low level exposure to herbi-cides, however chronic exposure can lead to decreased photosyn-thetic rates, bleaching, partial colony mortality, reduced tissuelipid content and reduced fecundity. In addition, concentrationsduring flood events are sufficiently high for effects to occur (Lewiset al., 2009a, this volume-a).

The effects of multiple stressors on corals are also emerging.Flood plumes generally have simultaneously low salinities, withelevated concentrations of nutrients, suspended sediments andseveral pesticides, and additive or even synergistic effects betweenpollutants but also with other environmental factors such as ele-vated temperatures may occur and affect the health of coral reefs(Lewis et al., this volume-a; Negri et al., 2011; Wooldridge, 2009;Wooldridge and Done 2009; Wooldridge et al. 2011). However,not all reefs are equally vulnerable to degradation from exposureto land run-off and pollution; both the exposure to nutrients, sed-iments and pollutants and site-specific environmental conditionsdetermine their susceptibility. The most vulnerable habitats arereefs close to river mouths (especially at larger depths); poorlyflushed reefs; reefs on shallow continental shelf areas (especiallyif surrounded by fine, soft sediment areas prone to resuspension);reefs frequently disturbed in the past (e.g. by severe storms andcoral bleaching) and reefs with low abundances of herbivorous fish(Fabricius, 2011).

A number of linked studies have examined the growth dynamicsof close coastal turbid reefs, either using the history of the reefsthrough the Holocene (from reef cores) or short term (a few years)




studies on the reefs themselves, to assess their response to currentturbid conditions. The reefs considered include Dunk Island nearTully (Perry and Smithers, 2010; Perry et al., 2011); Middle Reefnear Townsville (Browne et al., 2010); Paluma Shoals north ofTownsville (Perry and Smithers 2006; Perry et al., 2008; Palmeret al., 2010); King Reef near Tully (Roche et al., 2011); Lugger Shoalsnear Tully (Perry and Smithers 2006; Perry et al., 2009) and all thesereefs plus others (22 in total) in a combined analysis (Perry andSmithers, 2011). Overall it appears most of these close coastal reefsare resilient to the turbid conditions in which they exist, but thatover the Holocene they have experienced periods of growth (‘turnon’) and growth cessation (‘turn off’) driven by environmental con-ditions. Their current status may not be affected by the increasedloads of terrestrial sediment from anthropogenic catchment ero-sion as a result of this resilience that has developed over time.

The now advanced understanding of the responses of coral reeforganisms to water quality in the GBR has recently been applied inthe development of local water quality guidelines (GBRMPA, 2009).The guideline trigger values for nutrients, suspended solids, Chl aand Secchi depth are based on the analysis of relationships be-tween large-scale data on water quality and coral reef biodiversityand if exceeded, changes to ecosystem properties can be expected,e.g. increasing cover of macroalgae or decreasing taxonomic rich-ness of corals (Brodie et al., 2011; De’ath and Fabricius, 2008,2010). Current GBR water quality monitoring data are reported inthe context of compliance with the GBR water quality guidelines(e.g. Schaffelke et al., this volume).

7. Current management response to land runoff from theGBRCA

During the 1980s and 1990s, research and monitoring in theGBRCA and GBRWHA identified land runoff of pollutants as a pres-sure to the health of the GBR and formed the baseline of our under-standing of (i) the nature and sources of pollutant generation in theGBRCA, (ii) the transport of pollutants from the GBRCA into theGBR, (iii) the effects of pollutants on specific GBR organisms andecosystems, (iv) management options to reduce pollution, and (v)the socio-economic and political realities of how improved man-agement could be achieved. By the early 2000s, a reasonable con-sensus existed on these issues and how they could be addressedby improved management (e.g. Brodie et al., 2001a,b; Furnas,2003; Great Barrier Reef Protection Interdepartmental CommitteeScience Panel, 2003; Productivity Commission, 2003; Williamset al., 2002). In particular, the ‘Great Barrier Reef Water Quality Ac-tion Plan’ (Brodie et al., 2001a), commissioned by the Federal Min-ister for the Environment, set some initial targets for reducingpollution loads from the GBRCA to the GBRWHA and spurred fur-ther action, including the development of Reef Plan (see below).

All of these initiatives focus on diffuse pollution, based on theassumption that point source pollution such as sewage are alreadywell managed and in most cases, regulated. However, this was gen-erally not the case until after 1991 when most island sewage treat-ment plans that discharge into the GBRWHA were required toupgrade to a tertiary treatment standard (Brodie, 1994; Water-house and Johnson, 2002) and ongoing upgrades to coastal sewageplants were required under Queensland Government policy(Queensland State of the Environment Report, 2007). Regulationsintroduced in 2000 targeted aquaculture discharge into theGBRWHA which also improved the management of point sourcedischarges into the GBR.

7.1. Overarching policy – Reef Plan

In 2003, the Australian and Queensland Governments releasedthe Reef Plan (Queensland Department of the Premier and Cabinet,


2003). This plan aims to halt and reverse the decline in water qual-ity entering the Reef within 10 years, and strictly focuses on diffusepollution from agriculture. To achieve its aim, the Plan states thefollowing two objectives: (i) Reduce the load of pollutants from dif-fuse sources in the water entering the Reef, and (ii) Rehabilitateand conserve areas of the Reef catchment that have a role inremoving water borne pollutants. The plan outlines a set of activ-ities to be carried out by multiple designated participants thatwould lead to an actual plan of on-ground activities.

In 2009, Reef Plan 2003 was revised and updated (QueenslandDepartment of the Premier and Cabinet, 2009) with better definedtargets and actions. In addition to Reef Plan’s 2003 aim, Reef Plan2009 also aims to ensure that by 2020 the quality of water enteringthe GBR from adjacent catchments has no detrimental impact onthe health and resilience of the GBR. The Reef Plan 2009 includestargets and goals for water quality improvement and managementpractice change by 2013 and 2020.

Although load reduction targets are not formally defined in ReefPlan, for Reef Plan reporting purposes they are considered to havebeen set for anthropogenic loads (i.e. current loads minus pre-European loads). The load reduction targets are (i) a minimum 50per cent reduction in nitrogen and phosphorus loads at the endof catchments by 2013, (ii) a minimum 50 per cent reduction inpesticides at the end of catchments by 2013, (iii) a minimum of50 per cent late dry season groundcover on dry tropical grazingland by 2013, and (iv) a minimum 20 per cent reduction in sedi-ment load at the end of catchments by 2020. As the current enddate for Reef Plan draws near (2013) a new version (Reef Plan2014) is in the initial stages of investigation.

7.2. Incentives for improved management – Reef Rescue

In 2007, the Federal Government implemented Reef Rescue, anAU $200 million investment for on-ground works, monitoring, re-search and partnerships over 5 years (Australian Government,2007). This voluntary program’s objective is to improve the waterquality of the GBR lagoon by increasing the adoption of land man-agement practices that reduce the run-off of nutrients, pesticidesand sediments from agricultural land. Reef Rescue was developedfollowing an initiative by the Reef Water Quality Partnership,including agricultural industries, regional NRM bodies and naturalresource and environment managers. It built on key activities con-ducted under Reef Plan, including the development of local and re-gional Water Quality Improvement Plans (e.g. Dight, 2009; Drewryet al., 2008; Kroon, 2009 and references therein), and the NutrientManagement Zones process (Brodie, 2007).

Whilst forming an integral component of Reef Plan 2009, ReefRescue has its own five-year outcome targets (i.e. by 2013). Bothinitiatives specify management action, catchment condition andend-of-catchment pollutant load targets for 2013 reported bycatchment, regional and GBR-wide scales (see Table 1).

In 2008, Reef Rescue funded many on-ground land managementprojects across the GBRCA, mainly in the sugarcane and grazingindustries but also in dairy farming and horticulture. Projects in-clude the introductions of new farming practices; fencing alongstreams for cattle management with off-stream watering points;machinery modifications including harvesters, fertiliser and pesti-cide application gear; and cultivation and tillage equipment andpractices.

7.3. Agricultural regulation – Great Barrier Reef ProtectionAmendment Act 2009

In 2009, the Queensland Government introduced the GreatBarrier Reef Protection Amendment Act 2009 (Reef ProtectionPackage). The Act introduces regulations to improve the quality



Table 1Reef Plan and Reef Rescue (shaded cells) targets for the GBR. EOC = end of catchment.


of water entering the GBR, and applies to sugarcane growing andcattle grazing properties in the Burdekin Dry Tropics, Wet Tropicsand Mackay Whitsunday catchments in North Queensland. In theseareas, the Act provides for the implementation of (i) Farm Environ-mental Risk Management Plans in sugarcane cultivation and beefgrazing, (ii) Fertiliser management in sugarcane through a ‘calcula-tor’ for sustainable fertiliser rates, (iii) Erosion management ingrazing through managing pasture cover, and (iv) Pesticide man-agement through application management and buffer strips. TheAct and its regulations were implemented during 2010 and 2011.The pesticide regulations are of particular interest in that theQueensland Government has largely moved ahead of theAustralian Government pesticide regulatory regime by introducingstrong management measures for the GBR which have not beenenforced in other parts of Australia (King et al., in press).

7.4. Monitoring and reporting

The success (or otherwise) of Reef Plan 2009, Reef Rescue andthe Reef Protection Package is being assessed using an integratedmonitoring, assessment and reporting program referred to earlier– the Paddock to Reef Program (Carroll et al., this volume; Paddockto Reef Program, 2009). The program commenced in 2009 and thefirst report card was released in September 2011 (The State ofQueensland, 2011). The program is built around a number of com-ponents including (a) management practice adoption monitoringand auditing; (b) paddock monitoring and modelling involving col-lecting runoff during actual rainfall events and rainfall simulation.Modelling is used to extend results from one situation to anothernot part of the monitoring scheme; (c) catchment monitoringand modelling to assess the water quality entering the GBR lagoonand to determine trends in water quality over time; identify poten-tial source areas of contaminants; link plot to paddock to river


scales; and validate and calibrate the existing catchment models;(d) marine monitoring including inshore biological monitoring ofinshore coral reefs and intertidal seagrass meadows; and inshorewater quality and flood plume monitoring focussing on TSS, nutri-ents, Chl a, salinity, pesticides, temperature, turbidity and lightconditions; and (e) reporting on progress through an annual ‘Re-port Card’ supported by detailed technical reports.

Water quality guidelines for the GBR (GBRMPA, 2009) weredeveloped from previous analysis of likely candidate measures(De’ath and Fabricius 2008; Moss et al. 2005). The developmentof new and improved water quality indicators has progressedincluding the use of coral pigmentation (Cooper and Fabricius, thisvolume), biofilms (Kriwy and Uthicke, 2011) and a bioindicator in-dex system (Fabricius et al., this volume). Bioindicator and indexsystems for multiple pesticides have also been developed (Lewiset al. this volume-a; Shaw et al. this volume) and some are inuse (see Smith et al., this volume; Kennedy et al., this volume). Cri-teria for assessing the eutrophication status of the GBR are devel-oped to a draft state (Brodie et al., 2011).

8. Social and economic research for improved management ofthe GBRCA and lagoon

There has been a proliferation of social and economic researchover the past few years aiming to support the Reef Plan’s goal tohalt and reverse the decline in water quality entering the GBR.Guided by the results of biophysical research, social and economicresearch at the GBR-scale supported, as stated in section 9.1, prior-itisation of management responses under a constrained budget(e.g. Cotsell et al., 2009).

Detailed socio-economic research has focused on specific landuses, industries and geographical regions identified as ‘water qual-ity hotspots’. For example, to support development and delivery of




local and regional Water Quality Improvement Plans (WQIPs) NRMorganisations have worked closely with multidisciplinary teams ofresearchers who could provide the biophysical and socio-economicscience underpinning these plans (e.g. Kroon, 2009 and referencestherein).

To date, a major research effort has focused on selecting andprioritising land use and management practices that have high po-tential to improve water quality and provide benefits to growers(e.g. improved crop yields and higher gross margins) and theGBR (e.g. reduced impact from fertiliser run-off) (Bohnet et al.,2008a; Bohnet et al., 2011a; Roebeling et al., 2009a,b). Other re-search has focused on mechanisms (e.g. regulations, incentives)and policy options (e.g. spatially explicit, industry based) forimplementing land use and management practice change (Cogganand Whitten, 2008; Reeson et al., 2011; Rolfe and Windle, 2011a,b;Rolfe et al., 2011; Smajgl et al., 2009, 2010; Star et al., 2011; vanGrieken et al., 2011a, b; Windle and Rolfe, 2011). To maximisethe likelihood of adoption of management practices and policiesthat improve water quality, social research has provided insightsinto land managers motivations, risk perceptions and other factorsthat influence their land management decision-making (Bohnetet al., 2011b; Flick et al., 2010; Greiner and Miller, 2008; Greineret al., 2009). In addition, landholder profiles and typologies havebeen developed to better tailor policies and improve agriculturalextension program design (Bohnet, 2008; Bohnet et al., 2011b;Emtage, 2009).

To deal with and reduce uncertainty of the numerous factorsthat influence water quality in the GBRCA and lagoon and the ef-fects that changes in water quality may have on reef ecosystems,a number of different assessment approaches have been appliedin the GBR context. Based on literature reviews, Sherman andHenderson (2008) developed a guide for addressing the marginsof safety and reasonable assurance requirements for marine andestuarine water quality protection. Whitten et al. (2008) developedreasonable assurance points of reference for water quality manage-ment based on targets for practice change adoption. Using a Bayes-ian Belief Network model, Lynam et al. (2010) illustrate howadaptive modelling with managers and scientists has been usedas a tool to reduce uncertainty and guide where, when and whatinterventions are most likely to achieve desired water quality out-comes. Finally, scenarios or visions have been developed for thefuture of the region at different scales to provide insights intolong-term risks and opportunities that are likely to affect a com-plex region such as the GBRCA (Bohensky et al., 2011; Bohnet,2010; Bohnet et al., 2008b, 2010). Importantly, these studies havebrought a wide range of stakeholders and local communities to-gether and thereby contributed to social and ecological knowledgeintegration and social and collective learning.

The importance of institutional arrangements that allow thenumerous stakeholder groups to contribute and commit to suc-cessful implementation of strategies for water quality improve-ment has been recognised through a range of research efforts.Collaborative partnerships for effective governance have beenstudied at a range of scales (Lane and Robinson, 2009; Robinsonet al., 2011a) and evaluated using a SMART (Specific, Measurable,Achievable, Relevant and Timed) assessment (Robinson et al.,2009). A review by Kroon et al. (2009) highlight the challenges ofintegrating scientific and local knowledge into a local water qualityimprovement plan. However, by incorporating the range of localneeds, values, aspirations and priorities, water quality improve-ment plans are more likely to be supported by local communities(Bohnet and Kinjun, 2009; Larson, 2009).

Efforts to monitor, report and adapt management strategies forwater quality improvement have included development of a wateruse benefit index that the community can use as a tool to monitorwater related trends in the GBRCA (Smajgl et al., 2010). To adapt


management strategies if, when and where required, Eberhardet al. (2009) developed a protocol to guide practical steps towardsan adaptive approach to water quality management. Also advocat-ing an adaptive management approach to water quality manage-ment, Broderick (2008) suggests that success should be judgedon its environmental outcomes and on the quality of learning.

More recent research has applied an ecosystem services ap-proach to map the value of riparian vegetation (Pert et al., 2010),analyse trade-offs between multiple ecosystem services and stake-holders (Butler et al., in press), and assess the economic value ofthe GBR (Stoeckl et al., 2011). Other recent socio-economic workhas focused on a range of issues related to tourism and the GBR(Coghlan, in press; Farr et al., 2011; Gregg and Greiner, 2008; Kragtet al., 2009; Pabel and Coghlan, 2011).

While some of the social and economic research reported herehas directly supported local water quality improvement plans byproviding the underpinning science (see for example Kroon, 2009and references therein), other studies have contributed to the so-cial and economic knowledge base in the GBRCA and lagoon. Be-sides providing critical baseline information for future work,research in the social and economic area has contributed tobuilding partnerships, knowledge integration (social, economicand ecological as well as local and scientific) and learning aboutthe social-ecological catchment to reef system. Research to datewill form the basis for future work so that through adaptive man-agement (e.g. Eberhard et al., 2009) we, i.e. scientists, government,NRM managers, local communities, and other stakeholders, cancollectively assess the efficacy of recommended management prac-tices and explore new cost-effective options to improve waterquality if and where required (Kroon and Brodie, 2009). However,in order to achieve this important goal, future research will have tobe better coordinated, synthesised and also focused on social andcollective learning.

9. Evaluation of the current management response andconsiderations for improved management in the GBRcatchment

9.1. Prioritisation of water quality pollutants

Currently the prioritisation of management response betweendifferent pollutants, different land uses/industries and different re-gions has used relatively crude methods such as Multiple CriteriaAnalyses and relatively simple non-weighted assessments of sev-eral parameters (Brodie and Waterhouse, 2009; Brodie et al.,2009b; Cotsell et al., 2009; Greiner et al., 2005; Waterhouseet al., this volume). While these have proved useful for the initialprioritisation of investment under Reef Rescue and selection of pri-ority management areas under the Reef Protection Package, moresophisticated analyses are needed to confidently prioritise be-tween pollutants. For example, a robust discussion is currentlyoccurring globally as to the necessity of reducing nitrogen loadsor phosphorus loads or both to prevent eutrophication in estuarine,coastal and marine environments (Conley et al., 2009; Howarthet al., 2011; Paerl, 2009; Schindler et al., 2008). Such considerationsare also relevant to the GBR but a comprehensive risk assessmentthat would allow us to prioritise between different pollutants hasnot been carried out. The GBR lagoon is believed to be generallyN limited (Furnas et al., 2005) but it is unclear as to whether Nor P is the first priority for management in the GBRCA or whetherboth should be a priority. Current targets for N and P under ReefPlan (2009) and Reef Rescue treat N and P as equally importantbut this is not based on robust scientific analyses of relative impor-tance, but does draw on best available knowledge at the time. Cur-rently a more sophisticated risk analysis has commenced, using




improved methodology and data inputs, to be completed by 2014and able to be used for the development of Reef Plan 2014.

9.2. New management practices and their effectiveness

A large amount of recent research has focussed on losses ofchemicals from cropping systems and how new and improved agri-cultural management practices in the GBRCA can reduce theselosses. The effectiveness of currently recommended practices aswell as newer Best Management Practices has also been assessed.For example, in sugarcane cropping, Robinson et al. (2011b)showed that sugarcane as a crop is particularly inefficient at usingapplied nitrogen fertiliser that is present as nitrate in the soilrather than ammonium and thus prone to lose large amounts of ni-trate to off-farm environments. Scott et al. (2010) showed the po-tential for enzymes to destroy atrazine in irrigated sugarcanetailwater capture pits. Thorburn and colleagues have long-studiedthe possibility of using the ‘nitrogen replacement’ technique tobetter manage fertiliser use in sugarcane growing and reduce thecurrent losses of nitrogen from the sugarcane growing system(Biggs et al., in press; Park et al., 2008; Thorburn et al., 2007,2008a,b, 2009, 2011a–c; Webster et al., 2008, this volume) andthe current recommended practice, ‘Six Easy Steps’ has also beenevaluated (Schroeder et al., 2010). Armour et al. (in press) showedlarge losses of nitrate in deep drainage under banana crops in theWet Tropics with far lesser amounts under sugarcane in similar cli-matic conditions. However as a result of the research, fertiliserusage in banana crops has declined by as much as 40% since1995. Masters et al. (in press) showed that Best Management Prac-tices in sugarcane including controlled traffic resulted in loadreductions of 60%, 55%, 47%, and 48% for ametryn, atrazine, diuronand hexazinone respectively. Herbicide losses in runoff were alsoreduced by 32–42% when applications were banded rather thanbroadcast. Overall, it was the combination of early application,banding and controlled traffic that was most effective in reducingherbicide losses in runoff. The use of a controlled traffic system andbanded application of pesticides also gave useful reductions in pes-ticide runoff under simulated storm rainfall in a cotton croppingsystem in the Fitzroy catchment (Silburn et al., 2011a,b) and band-ing was shown to be most effective soon after application. Themuch greater application rates for two of the herbicides studiedthan for another resulted in 50–120 times greater runoff lossessoon after spraying.

In rangeland beef grazing lands, research into the effectivenessof pasture cover as an erosion prevention management techniquehave shown that grazing in semi-arid pastures should be managedto maintain >50% ground cover to avoid excessive runoff and soilerosion, degradation of soil productivity and to maintain goodoff-site water quality (Silburn, 2011a,b; Silburn et al., 2011a). Ero-sion studies in grain cropping lands (Freebairn et al., 2009) havedemonstrated the importance of soil type and conditions of erosionrates. Murphy et al. (in press) showed that considerable quantitiesof sediment, nutrient (from fertiliser) and herbicides (in this casemetolachlor) can be lost under conventional management in dry-land grain cropping. However improved practices such as reducedor zero tillage can reduce losses substantially.

Other research has investigated the role and effectiveness ofriparian forests and wetlands (constructed and natural) on trap-ping catchment pollutants before they reach the GBR (e.g.McJannet et al. 2011a,b). They found in a case study in the Tully/Murray River system that a small natural wetland trapped littlesediment, some phosphorus for at least a time, but no nitrogen.Thus the benefits of using wetlands to improve water qualitymay not be evident in unmanaged natural wetland systems whenthere is strong seasonality in flows and short residence time duringthe periods of maximum sediment and nutrient loads.


9.3. Time lags in responses

It is well understood that there are long and complex time lagsin the response of GBR ecosystems to pollutant loading and thusalso time lags in the response of ecosystems to reductions in pollu-tant loading (e.g. Bainbridge et al., 2009b; Brodie et al., 2009c).Similar problems exist across the globe (e.g. Hart, 2003; Lotzeet al. 2011). Clear examples in the GBR context are:

1. Improved pasture cover, riparian vegetation restoration, con-structed wetlands and other forms of vegetation managementall require long periods to become effective in reducing sedi-ment loads at the end of catchment (e.g. Bartley et al., 2010a,b).

2. Groundwater movement and pollutant transport is often a veryslow process with potentially decadal time scales betweenchemical entry to the groundwater and eventual discharge toriver or coastal waterbodies (Lenahan and Bristow, 2010; Rasi-ah et al., 2003, 2010, 2011a,b; Thayalakumaran et al., 2008).

3. Sediment transport through catchments can be a slow processwith large-scale storage for long periods e.g. in the Fitzroycatchment (Hughes et al., 2010b) followed by remobilisationin large flood events.

It is assumed that water quality conditions in the inshore GBRlagoon have deteriorated over a long period in response to slowlyincreasing levels of terrestrial pollution. It is likely that time scalesof decades will be required for marine water quality conditions toimprove following reductions in catchment pollutant loading. Pes-ticides are likely to be an exception to this. The pesticides of con-cern, the PS-II herbicides have half lives of less than one year. Ifusage is greatly reduced on the GBRCA, concentrations in theGBR lagoon should decline rapidly (for example within 3 years)as the residual herbicides decay.

These time lags mean that even if all the management action pro-posed to occur under Reef Plan (2009) is successfully implemented,it is highly unlikely that the targets set in Reef Plan (2009) and ReefRescue will be achieved by 2013 (Kroon, this volume), or evensignificant change in water quality indicators detected over timeperiods of several decades (Darnell et al., this volume).

The management of terrestrial pollutant discharge to the GBRimplicitly assumes that the impacts of increased loads of nutrients,sediments and pesticides would be reversed if the loads were re-duced. However, it is now well known that many ecological sys-tems occur in stable states, shifts between states are nonlinearand the magnitude of change required to return a system to its ori-ginal state is likely to be larger than the change that caused theshift towards the undesired state (Folke et al., 2004; Schefferet al., 2001). In addition, there are well documented cases of eutro-phied marine systems where reductions in nutrient loading havenot returned the systems to their original ecological status (Duarteet al., 2009; Lotze et al. 2011). This is attributed to the range ofother factors in the system that have dramatically changed alsoduring the period of increased nutrient loading, such as humanpopulation increases, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,freshwater runoff changes, global temperature increases and fishstock losses. These factors are also present in the GBR and may wellinterfere with attempts to return the GBR to a more desirable con-dition through pollutant load reductions alone. In coral reef sys-tems the issues of reversibility, time lags and phase change hasbeen the subject of much recent research (Bruno et al., 2009;Elmhirst et al., 2009; Hughes et al., 2010a; Mumby et al., 2007;Norström et al., 2009). However, further research is required onecosystem responses to changing water quality responses, particu-larly in combination with other stressors such as climate change, toquantify the likely time lags of the response of the GBR ecosystemsand the nature and trajectory of the response.




9.4. GBRCA freshwater ecosystem management versus GBR marineecosystem management

A long-standing issue is that catchment management actions inthe GBRCA have been directed at protecting GBR ecosystems withlittle attention given to the health of freshwater ecosystems. This isvery evident in the objectives of programs like Reef Plan (2009)where freshwater wetlands and riparian areas are seen only inthe context of trapping pollutants and hence reducing pollutantloads to the GBR (e.g. Flick et al., 2010). There is also the view thatall management measures taken on catchments which are knownto benefit GBR ecosystems will equally benefit freshwater ecosys-tems. There is little evidence to support this and the propositionhas never been adequately analysed. Many stakeholders interestedin terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem protection see the totalemphasis on the GBR to be misplaced and the need for a more bal-anced management approach. If we consider riparian vegetationrestoration, the varying benefits of this expensive activity needto be assessed for both the GBR and the catchment (Bohnet et al.,2011b; Pert et al., 2010). A good example of the conflicting (andsometimes complimentary) needs of management of agriculturalpollution in different ecosystem compartments of the GBR regionis the lower Burdekin region where agricultural pollutants fromcropping (mainly sugarcane) and hydrological modifications im-pinge firstly on freshwater wetlands listed under the Australian na-tional wetland register, then on a mainly estuarine Ramsar-listedwetland site and then on the GBRWHA (Davis et al., 2008, in press,this volume).

A number of methods are available that allow for joint consid-eration of terrestrial and marine biodiversity conservation in pro-tected area management (Stoms et al., 2005; Watts et al., 2009)and the use of such an integrated approach to biodiversity conser-vation in the GBR region is desirable.

9.5. Achievement of targets

Ambitious targets for pollutant load reduction at end of catch-ment, and goals for GBR ecosystem health and resilience have beenset by Reef Plan (2009) for 2013 and 2020 (Table 1). However, it isunclear whether achieving these targets and goals will result indesirable coastal ecosystem condition in the GBR lagoon.

Thorburn and Wilkinson (in press) address the questionwhether the management practices currently being funded underReef Rescue and imposed by the Reef Protection Package are likelyto be effective in reducing sediment and nutrient loads at catch-ment scales. They find that management practices to improve cov-er levels in grazing lands, and reduce fertiliser application rates insugarcane, horticulture and grain cropping lands are effective inreducing sediment and nutrient loads. A second question iswhether the investments in practice changes are sufficient to reachcatchment load targets. Thorburn and Wilkinson (in press) findthat the magnitudes of practice change required to achieve thecatchment load reductions targeted by Reef Plan across the GBRcatchments are larger than are currently planned, and they con-clude that it remains unclear whether such changes are biophysi-cally, socially and economically realistic.

In current water quality policy in the GBR region, no clear eco-logical outcomes have been defined for desired status of, andtrends in coastal ecosystems. The Reef Plan (2009) goal refers tohealth and resilience of the Reef, but does not define specific eco-logical conditions that would support healthy and resilient ecosys-tems. Marine water quality guidelines have currently beendeveloped primarily for responses of coral reefs (GBRMPA, 2009),but using water quality guidelines as complete surrogates for eco-logical outcomes may be inappropriate. The GBR water qualityguidelines have been developed to ‘‘define trigger values to


support target setting for water quality leaving catchments’’(GBRMPA, 2009). However, the guidelines have not been quantita-tively linked with, or informed the (i) end-of-catchment loadreduction targets in Reef Plan, nor (ii) Reef Plan’s long-term goal.Hence, it is not certain whether Reef Plan targets will be sufficientto achieve GBR water quality guidelines, and consequently, GBRecosystem health and resilience (Brodie et al., this volume; Kroonand Brodie, 2009; Kroon, this volume).

If Reef Plan targets and goals were not met in the identified timeframe (mostly 2013; see Section 9.3), the conditions of inshore GBRecosystems are unlikely to improve in the medium-term future.However, more concerning would be the loss of future politicalsupport and funding for sustained long term management of landuse in the GBRCA, which is required to achieve the desired change.The definition of specific ecological conditions to support a healthyand resilient ecosystem would enable an informed debate on themanagement actions and policy instruments required to achievethese ecological conditions. Importantly, the social and economiccosts of meeting the targets are not well understood, nor are thetrade-offs required to meet long-term Reef Plan goals.

In summary, neither the feasibility of achieving these targets,nor their adequacy for GBR ecosystem health and resilience hasbeen fully assessed (but see Kroon, this volume; Thorburn andWilkinson, in press). Whilst the targets are ambitious andvisionary, it appears unrealistic that they could be met by 2013or 2020, and Kroon’s (this volume) first-order assessment suggeststhey may not be large enough. In our opinion, reaching the ReefPlan and Reef Rescue pollutant load targets in timeframes suchas 2013 looks visionary but unrealistic.

9.6. Voluntary incentive-based versus regulatory-based management

Similarly to Reef Rescue, the Reef Protection Package is an inte-gral component of Reef Plan (2009), and is expected to contributehalf to the overall required target reduction in river loads. The rel-ative success of the two approaches – voluntary incentive-basedand regulatory-based - will be fascinating to assess in the future.However, it is not clear whether appropriate evaluation frame-works are in place to assess the outcomes of each approach sepa-rately. To date, measures of the adoption of improvedmanagement practices do not distinguish the primary drivers ofchange (e.g. The State of Queensland, 2011); however futurereporting will attempt to identify Reef-Rescue funded improve-ments as distinct from the broader outcomes of other Reef Plan ini-tiatives including the Regulations (K. Gale, pers. comm.).

9.7. Incorporating new knowledge into reprioritisation of managementactions

As our knowledge advances, management interventions mayneed to be modified. Currently there is no formal mechanism forthis apart from the complete revision of initiatives like Reef Plan(as done in 2008 after the first 5 years). A good example is our im-proved understanding of the comparative role of hillslope erosionversus gully erosion as major sediment sources in dry tropicalcatchments such as the Burdekin, Fitzroy, upper Herbert and Nor-manby. Initial assessments suggested the total load was dominatedby hillslope erosion (McKergow et al., 2005a), whereas recent workhas shown that gully erosion is a more important source in somelocations within catchments, for example, parts of the Fitzroy(Hughes et al., 2009, 2010b), although care is required in extrapo-lating to the whole of the catchment (Chris Carroll, pers. com.). Theimportance of gully erosion has also been shown at the largercatchment scale, for example in the upper Herbert (Tims et al.,2010), Burdekin (Bartley et al., 2010a,b; Wilkinson et al., in press)and Normanby (Brooks et al., unpublished data). Hence, gully




remediation may need to be given higher priority in programs suchas Reef Rescue in certain locations than what currently occurs. An-other example is the importance of particle size and the physico-chemical nature of particulate matter (e.g. organic content and claymineralogy) for transport behaviour and risk to marine ecosys-tems. Only very fine sediments are transported through the Burd-ekin Falls Dam (Lewis et al., 2009b, in review) to the river mouthand into the GBR lagoon (Bainbridge et al., this volume) and thesefine sediments (<5 lm) are sourced from parts of the Burdekincatchment above the dam. Thus it may be recommended that ero-sion management concentrate on these areas rather than just, ascurrently done, on the areas of highest gross erosion.

A more coordinated and formal approach is obviously requiredto synthesise the growing body of work, so management practicescan be evaluated holistically and applied effectively. The com-mencement of a number of research programs to support Reef Res-cue and Reef Plan initiatives within a similar timeframe providesan excellent opportunity for a coordinated approach to reportingresearch outcomes.

10. Conclusions

Water quality associated with pollutant discharge from theGBRCA is still a major issue for GBR ecosystems. Research pub-lished since the Scientific Consensus Statement of 2008 (Brodieet al., 2008a) confirms its conclusions that water discharge to theGBR is of poor quality in many rivers and in the associated floodplumes (Brodie et al., 2010; Devlin and Schaffelke, 2009; Devlinet al., this volume; Kroon et al., this volume; Packett et al.,2009); contaminants are present in the GBR lagoon at concentra-tions likely to cause environmental harm (De’ath and Fabricius,2010; Devlin et al., this volume; Lewis et al., 2009a; Schaffelkeet al., this volume; Shaw et al., 2010); evidence of the causal rela-tionship between water quality and GBR ecosystem health is morerobust (Brodie et al., 2011; Fabricius et al., 2010; Fabricius, 2011;Jupiter et al., 2008; Lewis et al., this volume-b; McKenzie et al.,2010; Negri et al., 2011); and that climate change will confoundthe attribution of ecosystem degradation to single causes such aspoor water quality (Borges and Gypens, 2010; Cooper et al.,2008; De’ath et al., 2009; Hughes et al., 2010a).

We still have a number of important knowledge gaps that hin-der our ability to better prioritise management actions and assesswhether our management interventions are successful. In particu-lar, we need to better understand pollutant transport processes(e.g. overbank flow, groundwater transport and residence times);processes taking place during transport (e.g. denitrification,flood-plain deposition, plume flocculation, biological uptake, pesti-cide half-lives); the effects of contaminants in the short-term (e.g.during flood plumes) versus the long-term (e.g. chronic effects overyears of low level pollution); the long-term effectiveness of manyof our recommended management practices in reducing pollution(e.g. constructed wetlands to trap contaminants from cropping orbetter pasture cover to reduce erosion in rangelands); the effectsof removal of vegetation from catchments and reduced infiltrationand increased water runoff (but see Thornton et al., 2007); and theeffects of pollutants at ecosystem scale versus single speciesresponse.

Our evaluation of the current management response to GBRCArunoff has shown that the conclusion from the Consensus State-ment that ‘current management interventions are not effectivelysolving the problem’ has now decisively changed with the intro-duction of Reef Rescue and the Reef Protection Package. Currentlyuseful management action is being taken, although whether it isenough to achieve the Reef Plan targets or is the most appropriateform of management is uncertain (Thorburn and Wilkinson, in


press; Kroon, this volume). However, it is expected that measur-able improvements in river and coastal marine water quality, orecosystem health, may not be detected for up to several decades(Darnell et al., this volume). Whether these programs will be en-ough to ‘save the reef’ with respect to water quality impacts, how-ever, is unknown and an analysis on ecologically relevant loadreduction targets by Kroon (this volume) suggests it is not.

Acknowledgements

The authors of this paper would like to acknowledge support fortheir research activities over the last decade from a number of Aus-tralian and Queensland Government programs, including the Na-tional Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality, the NaturalHeritage Trust, the Coastal Catchments Initiative, Cooperative Re-search Centre programs for Reef, Rainforest and Catchment to Reef,the Marine and Tropical Science Research Facility, the Reef Rescueinitiative, the National Environmental Research Program and theReef Plan Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring and ModelingProgram, as well as CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country FlagshipProgram. Support from Queensland Government agencies includ-ing the Department of the Premier and Cabinet and the Depart-ment of Environment and Resource Management is alsorecognised.

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