terrorism threat map 2007...transport, maritime and aviation: 5% utilities and telecoms: 5%...

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ATLANTIC OCEAN ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHERN OCEAN INDIAN OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN ARCTIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN PACIFIC OCEAN Gulf of Mexico Norwegian Sea North Sea Barents Sea Kara Sea Arabian Sea Gulf of Guinea Bay of Bengal Tasman Sea South China Sea Sea of Okhotsk Bering Sea East Siberian Sea Laptev Sea Black Sea Scotia Sea Sea of Japan East China Sea Timor Sea Hudson Bay Baffin Bay Davis Strait Beaufort Sea Caribbean Sea Cas pi a n Sea Red S ea Gul f o f A d e n The G ul f Med. Sea Basque Country Sinai Peninsula Gaza SE Coastal Regions Niger Delta Northern Nigeria Tri Border Area Kashmir Ingushetia Chechnya South Ossetia Kurdistan Balochistan Dagestan NE States SE Provinces East Timor Bali Aceh Mindanao VENEZUELA GUYANA SURINAME PANAMA GALAPAGOS ISLANDS (ECUADOR) JAMAICA PUERTO RICO (US) AZORES (PORT) ICELAND SPAIN ALGERIA SUDAN SAUDI ARABIA ETHIOPIA MALI LIBYA EGYPT NIGER ZAMBIA KENYA TANZANIA ANGOLA SOUTH AFRICA NAMIBIA DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO NIGERIA CHAD IRAQ IRAN INDIA INDONESIA AUSTRALIA MALAYSIA C H I N A R U S S I A KAZAKHSTAN MONGOLIA FRANCE TURKEY BARBADOS ST VINCENT GUADELOUPE DOMINICA GRENADA IRELAND MADEIRA (PORT) CAPE VERDE ST HELENA (UK) ASCENSION ISLAND (UK) FALKLAND ISLANDS (UK) HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (USA) TONGA COOK ISLANDS TAHITI WESTERN SAMOA AMERICAN SAMOA FRENCH POLYNESIA THE CANARIES (SP) UNITED KINGDOM FINLAND SWEDEN NORWAY POLAND ROMANIA MOROCCO CAMEROON CONGO SYRIA UAE OMAN SRI LANKA YEMEN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN THAILAND PHILIPPINES PAPUA NEW GUINEA NEW ZEALAND JAPAN AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN BOTSWANA ZIMBABWE MOZAMBIQUE SOMALIA MADAGASCAR GABON CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC MAURITANIA UKRAINE BELARUS NETHERLANDS BELGIUM MELILLA (SP) CEUTA (SP) GIBRALTAR GUERNSEY JERSEY SENEGAL GAMBIA SIERRA LEONE GUINEA BURKINA FASO GUINEA BISSAU LIBERIA EQ GUINEA LESOTHO RWANDA UGANDA BURUNDI MAURITIUS REUNION ISLANDS (FR) COMOROS SEYCHELLES MALDIVES MALAWI SWAZILAND CABINDA (ANGOLA) GHANA DJIBOUTI BAHRAIN QATAR BHUTAN VIETNAM SINGAPORE SOLOMON ISLANDS FIJI VANUATU PALAU GUAM NEW CALEDONIA (FR) BRUNEI HONG KONG TAIWAN SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA MACAU LAOS CAMBODIA NEPAL BANGLADESH KUWAIT ERITREA CÔTE D‘IVOIRE ANDORRA LIECHTENSTEIN MONACO VATICAN CITY DENMARK LUX PORTUGAL WESTERN SAHARA TUNISIA BENIN TOGO SWITZ. CZECH REP SLOVAKIA LITHUANIA KALININGRAD (RUSSIA) LATVIA ESTONIA AUSTRIA SLOVENIA CROATIA MOLDOVA ALBANIA SERBIA MALTA CYPRUS LEBANON PALESTINE ISRAEL JORDAN GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN ARMENIA TAJIKISTAN MYANMAR KYRGYZSTAN F.Y.R. MACEDONIA BULGARIA GREECE HUNGARY BOSNIA ST LUCIA ST KITTS & NEVIS US VIRGIN IS ANTIGUA BRITISH VIRGIN IS ANGUILLA BAHAMAS BERMUDA (UK) DOM. REP. TRINIDAD & TOBAGO NETH ANTILLES ARUBA HAITI CUBA HONDURAS BELIZE NICARAGUA COSTA RICA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR PARAGUAY URUGUAY FRENCH GUIANA COLOMBIA ECUADOR PERU MEXICO BOLIVIA ALASKA (US) ARGENTINA BRAZIL UNITED STATES OF AMERICA C A N A D A GREENLAND C H I L E GERMANY ITALY Brasilia Rio de Janeiro Fortaleza Asunción Montevideo Lima Quito Bogotá Medellin Caracas Georgetown Paramaribo Cayenne Belém Salvador São Paulo Belmopan Havana Kingston Santo Domingo Panama San José Ottawa Toronto Boston Burlington New York Chicago Minneapolis Seattle Portland St Louis Dallas Atlanta Baltimore Houston Monterrey Miami Nassau New Orleans Montréal Vancouver Calgary Winnipeg Anchorage San Francisco Honolulu Phoenix Los Angeles Las Vegas Denver San Diego Tegucigalpa San Salvador Port-au- Prince Managua Washington DC Detroit Reykjavik Lisbon Stockholm Berlin Vienna Ljubljana Sarajevo Tangier Casablanca Skopje Tirana Dakar Cairo Luxor Sharm El-Sheikh Dahab Kolkata Baku Kabul Lahore Islamabad Kathmandu Beijing Tianjin Tokyo Rangoon Manila Dhaka Surabaya Colombo Tashkent Novosibirsk Omsk Tbilisi Nicosia Tel Aviv Conakry Freetown Monrovia Accra Brazzaville Lusaka Lilongwe Harare Dar-es-Salaam Gaborone Cape Town Kigali Bujumbura Bern Ankara Antalya Marmaris Warsaw Vilnius Kiev Dublin Paris Athens Bucharest Madrid Barcelona Alicante Malaga Bilbao Lyon Milan Strasbourg Marseille Tripoli Bamako Niamey Khartoum Asmera Riyadh Dhahran Al Khobar Manama Alma Ata Delhi Wuhan Vientiane Bangkok Ulan Bator Baghdad Kirkuk Faluja Basra Tehran Yerevan Abu Dhabi Dubai Addis Ababa Yaoundé Kampala Windhoek Antananarivo Pretoria Abidjan Ouagadougou Algiers Tunis Oslo Helsinki Bratislava Brussels Frankfurt Hamburg Amsterdam Rotterdam Copenhagen Prague Rome Rabat Marrakech El Aaiun Moscow Grozny Volgograd St Petersburg Budapest Zagreb Belgrade Sofia Istanbul Nouakchott Banjul Lomé Lagos N’Djamena Djibouti Bangui Kinshasa Nairobi Mombasa Mogadishu Sana’a Mecca Jeddah Amman Damascus Jerusalem Beirut Kuwait Muscat Doha Mumbai Chennai Karachi Ashkhabad Dushanbe Pyongyang Seoul Taipei Shanghai Shenyang Osaka Hanoi Phnom Penh Ho Chi Minh Kuala Lumpur Port Moresby Wellington Christchurch Auckland Sydney Hobart Adelaide Perth Jakarta Dili Darwin Brisbane Canberra Melbourne Thimphu Vladivostok Bishkek Libreville Luanda Maputo Durban Johannesburg Porto-Novo Port Harcourt Bissau Tallinn Riga Minsk Kishinev London Birmingham Manchester Belfast Godthåb Guatemala Mexico City Guadalajara La Paz Santiago Buenos Aires 60º 70º 50º 40º 30º 20º 10º 10º 20º 30º 40º 50º 170º 160º 150º 140º 130º 120º 110º 100º 90º 80º 70º 60º 50º 40º 30º 20º 10º 10º 20º 30º 40º 50º 60º 70º 80º 90º 100º 110º 120º 130º 140º 150º 160º 170º 50º 40º 30º 20º 10º 10º 20º 30º 40º 50º 60º 70º -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 GMT +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 KEY TO SYMBOLS Low threat Guarded threat Elevated threat High threat Severe threat TERRORISM THREAT CONDITIONS Kidnap and ransom Nationalist/separatist Single interest Narco/organised crime Other religious extremists TERRORIST GROUPS COUNTRY KIDNAP RISK Cities at particular risk High risk regions Kashmir Far right Marxist/leftist Islamic extremist Terrorism Threat Map 2007 Security forces: 35% Private citizens and property: 17% Government and diplomatic: 15% Religious figures/institutions: 7% Transport, maritime and aviation: 5% Utilities and telecoms: 5% Business: 4% Educational institutions: 3% NGO and media: 2% Tourism: 0.4% Other: 7% TERRORISM TARGET SELECTION BY INDUSTRY Terrorism target selection by Janusian statistics, 2006* *Iraq statistics not included Which organisations Track record Which organisations Threat Which organisations Vulnerability Which organisations Risk Which organisations Aims and intent Which organisations Target selection Capability Security regime Physical security Plans and procedures Security regime Aon Limited Crisis Management e-mail: [email protected] www.aon.com © Copyright Aon Limited 2007. All rights reserved. www.riskadvisory.net www.janusian.com TERRORISM THREAT MAP 2007 Terrorism threat is defined as an assessment of the intent, capability and likelihood of terrorists staging attacks. All assessments for the Terrorism Threat Map 2007 draw upon open and privileged intelligence data. Using this data, a panel of Janusian analysts have assigned threat levels by scoring each country according to the following threat indicators for 2007: Known and active groups or networks operating in a given country Their aims and stated objectives Their track record of terrorist activity, including target selection Their operational capabilities to stage attacks The likely erosion of terrorist capabilities through the current counter-terrorism regime in the given country Advice Janusian and Aon recommend that terrorism threat can be mitigated by the following: Implement a proportionate security risk management scheme to identify and reduce the vulnerabilities to personnel and business assets based upon an expert risk assessment Transfer risk though an appropriate insurance policy to reduce the impact of any attack TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT

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Page 1: Terrorism Threat Map 2007...Transport, maritime and aviation: 5% Utilities and telecoms: 5% Business: 4% Educational institutions: 3% NGO and media: 2% Tourism: 0.4% Other: 7% TERRORISM

A T L A N T I CO C E A N

A T L A N T I CO C E A N

S O U T H E R N O C E A N

I N D I A NO C E A N

P A C I F I CO C E A N

A R C T I C O C E A N

P A C I F I CO C E A N

P A C I F I CO C E A N

G u l f o fM e x i c o

N o r w e g i a nS e a

N o r t hS e a

B a r e n t sS e a

K a r aS e a

A r a b i a nS e a

G u l f o fG u i n e a

B a y o f B e n g a l

T a s m a n S e a

S o u t hC h i n a

S e a

S e a o fO k h o t s k

B e r i n gS e a

E a s t S i b e r i a nS e a

L a p t e v S e a

Black Sea

Scot ia Sea

Sea ofJapan

EastChina

Sea

TimorSea

H u d s o nB a y

B a f f i nB a y

D a v i sS t r a i t

B e a u f o r tS e a

C a r i b b e a nS e a

Ca

spia

n Sea

Red Sea

Gul f of A

den The Gul f

Med. Sea

Basque Country

Sinai Peninsula

Gaza

SE Coastal Regions

Niger Delta

Northern Nigeria

Tri Border Area

Kashmir

Ingushetia Chechnya

South Ossetia

Kurdistan

Balochistan

Dagestan

NE States

SE Provinces

East TimorBali

Aceh

MindanaoV E N E Z U E L A

GUYANA

SURINAME

PANAMA

GALAPAGOSISLANDS (ECUADOR)

JAMAICAPUERTO

RICO (US)

AZORES (PORT)

ICELAND

S P A I N

A L G E R I A

S U D A N

S A U D IA R A B I A

E T H I O P I A

M A L I

L I B Y A

E G Y P T

N I G E R

Z A M B I A

K E N Y A

T A N Z A N I A

A N G O L A

S O U T HA F R I C A

N A M I B I A

D E M O C R A T I CR E P U B L I C

O F C O N G O

N I G E R I A

C H A D

I R A Q

I R A N

I N D I A

I N D O N E S I A

A U S T R A L I A

M A L A Y S I A

C H I N A

R U S S I A

K A Z A K H S T A N

M O N G O L I A

F R A N C E

T U R K E Y

BARBADOSST VINCENT

GUADELOUPE

DOMINICA

GRENADA

IRELAND

MADEIRA (PORT)

CAPE VERDE

ST HELENA (UK)

ASCENSION ISLAND (UK)

FALKLANDISLANDS (UK)

HAWAIIANISLANDS (USA)

TONGA

COOKISLANDS

TAHITI

WESTERNSAMOA

AMERICANSAMOA

FRENCHPOLYNESIA

THE CANARIES (SP)

UNITEDKINGDOM

F I N L A N D

SW

ED

EN

NO

RW

AY

P O L A N D

ROMANIA

M O R O C C O

CAMEROON

CONGO

SYRIA

UAE

OMAN

SRILANKA

YEMEN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

THAILAND

PHILIPPINES

PAPUA NEWGUINEA

NEWZEALAND

J A P A N

A F G H A N I S T A N

P A K I S T A N

B O T S W A N A

Z I M B A B W E

MOZAM

BIQUE

SO

MA

LI A

MAD

AGAS

CAR

G A B O N

CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC

M A U R I T A N I A

U K R A I N E

B E L A R U S

NETHERLANDS

BELGIUM

MELILLA (SP)

CEUTA (SP)GIBRALTAR

GUERNSEYJERSEY

SENEGAL

GAMBIA

SIERRALEONE

GUINEA

BURKINA FASO

GUINEABISSAU

LIBERIA

EQ GUINEA

LESOTHO

RWANDA

UGANDA

BURUNDI

MAURITIUS

REUNION ISLANDS (FR)

COMOROS

SEYCHELLES

MALDIVES

MA

LAW

I

SWAZILAND

CABINDA(ANGOLA)

GHANA

DJIBOUTI

BAHRAIN

QATAR BHUTAN

VIETNAM

SINGAPORE

SOLOMONISLANDS

FIJIVANUATU

PALAU

GUAM

NEWCALEDONIA (FR)

BRUNEI

HONG KONG

TAIWAN

SOUTHKOREA

NORTHKOREA

MACAU

LAOS

CAMBODIA

NEPAL

BANGLADESH

KUWAIT

ERITREA

CÔTED‘IVOIRE

ANDORRA

LIECHTENSTEIN

MONACO

VATICANCITY

DENMARK

LUX

PORT

UG

AL

WES

TERN

SAH

ARA

TUN

ISIA

BEN

IN

TOG

O

SWITZ.

CZECH REPSLOVAKIA

LITHUANIAKALININGRAD(RUSSIA)

LATVIA

ESTONIA

AUSTRIA

SLOVENIA

CROATIA

MOLDOVA

ALBANIA

SERBIA

MALTA

CYPRUS

LEBANON

PALESTINE

ISRAEL

JORDAN

GEORGIA

AZERBAIJANARMENIA

TAJIKISTAN

MYANMAR

KYRGYZSTAN

F.Y.R. MACEDONIA

BULGARIA

GREECE

HUNGARY

BOSNIA

ST LUCIA

ST KITTS& NEVIS

US VIRGIN IS ANTIGUA

BRITISH VIRGIN IS

ANGUILLA

BAHAMAS

BERMUDA (UK)

DOM. REP.

TRINIDAD& TOBAGO

NETHANTILLESARUBA

HAITI

CUBA

HONDURAS

BELIZE

NICARAGUA

COSTARICA

GUATEMALA

EL SALVADOR

PARAGUAY

URUGUAY

FRENCHGUIANA

C O L O M B I A

ECUADOR

P E R U

M E X I C O

B O L I V I A

A L A S K A ( U S )

A R G E N T I N A

B R A Z I L

U N I T E D S T A T E SO F A M E R I C A

C A N A D A

G R E E N L A N D

CH

IL

E

GERMANY

ITALY

Brasilia

Rio de Janeiro

Fortaleza

Asunción

Montevideo

Lima

Quito

Bogotá

Medellin

Caracas

GeorgetownParamaribo

Cayenne

Belém

Salvador

São Paulo

Belmopan

Havana

KingstonSanto

Domingo

PanamaSan José

Ottawa

Toronto

Boston

Burlington

New YorkChicago

Minneapolis

Seattle

Portland

St Louis

Dallas

Atlanta

Baltimore

Houston

Monterrey MiamiNassau

New Orleans

Montréal

VancouverCalgary Winnipeg

Anchorage

San Francisco

Honolulu

Phoenix

Los Angeles

Las Vegas

Denver

San Diego

TegucigalpaSan Salvador

Port-au-Prince

Managua

Washington DC

Detroit

Reykjavik

Lisbon

Stockholm

Berlin

Vienna

Ljubljana

Sarajevo

Tangier

Casablanca

SkopjeTirana

Dakar

Cairo

Luxor

Sharm El-SheikhDahab

Kolkata

Baku

Kabul

Lahore

Islamabad

Kathmandu

BeijingTianjin

Tokyo

Rangoon

Manila

Dhaka

Surabaya

Colombo

Tashkent

NovosibirskOmsk

Tbilisi

Nicosia

Tel Aviv

Conakry

Freetown

MonroviaAccra

Brazzaville

Lusaka

Lilongwe

Harare

Dar-es-Salaam

Gaborone

Cape Town

KigaliBujumbura

Bern

Ankara

Antalya

Marmaris

Warsaw

Vilnius

Kiev

Dublin

Paris

Athens

Bucharest

Madrid Barcelona

Alicante

Malaga

Bilbao

Lyon

Milan

Strasbourg

Marseille

Tripoli

BamakoNiamey

Khartoum Asmera

Riyadh

DhahranAl Khobar

Manama

Alma Ata

Delhi

Wuhan

Vientiane

Bangkok

Ulan Bator

Baghdad

KirkukFaluja

Basra

Tehran

Yerevan

Abu DhabiDubai

Addis Ababa

Yaoundé

Kampala

Windhoek

Antananarivo

Pretoria

Abidjan

Ouagadougou

AlgiersTunis

Oslo

Helsinki

Bratislava

BrusselsFrankfurt

HamburgAmsterdamRotterdam

Copenhagen

Prague

Rome

Rabat

Marrakech

El Aaiun

Moscow

Grozny

Volgograd

St Petersburg

Budapest

Zagreb

Belgrade

Sofia

Istanbul

Nouakchott

Banjul

Lomé

Lagos

N’DjamenaDjibouti

Bangui

Kinshasa

Nairobi

Mombasa

Mogadishu

Sana’a

Mecca

Jeddah

Amman

DamascusJerusalem

Beirut

Kuwait

Muscat

Doha

Mumbai

Chennai

Karachi

Ashkhabad DushanbePyongyang

Seoul

Taipei

Shanghai

Shenyang

Osaka

Hanoi

Phnom Penh

Ho Chi Minh

Kuala Lumpur

Port Moresby

Wellington

Christchurch

Auckland

Sydney

Hobart

Adelaide

Perth

Jakarta

Dili

Darwin

Brisbane

Canberra

Melbourne

Thimphu

Vladivostok

Bishkek

Libreville

Luanda

Maputo

Durban

Johannesburg

Porto-Novo

Port Harcourt

Bissau

Tallinn

Riga

Minsk

Kishinev

LondonBirmingham

ManchesterBelfast

Godthåb

Guatemala

Mexico City

Guadalajara

La Paz

SantiagoBuenos Aires

60º

70º

50º

40º

30º

20º

10º

10º

20º

30º

40º

50º

170º160º150º140º130º120º110º100º90º80º70º60º50º40º30º20º10º0º10º20º30º40º50º60º70º80º90º100º110º120º130º140º150º160º170º

50º

40º

30º

20º

10º

10º

20º

30º

40º

50º

60º

70º

-12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 GMT +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12

KEY TO SYMBOLS

Low threat

Guarded threat

Elevated threat

High threat

Severe threat

TERRORISM THREAT CONDITIONS

Kidnap and ransom

Nationalist/separatist

Single interest

Narco/organised crime

Other religious extremists

TERRORIST GROUPS

COUNTRY KIDNAP RISK

Cities at particular risk

High risk regionsKashmir

Far right

Marxist/leftist

Islamic extremist

Terrorism Threat Map 2007

Security forces: 35%Private citizens and property: 17%Government and diplomatic: 15%Religious figures/institutions: 7%Transport, maritime and aviation: 5%Utilities and telecoms: 5%Business: 4%Educational institutions: 3%NGO and media: 2%Tourism: 0.4%Other: 7%

TERRORISM TARGET SELECTION BY INDUSTRYTerrorism target selection by Janusian statistics, 2006*

*Iraq statistics not included

Which organisationsTrack record

Which organisationsThreat

Which organisationsVulnerability

Which organisationsRisk

Which organisationsAims and intent

Which organisationsTarget selection

CapabilitySecurity regime

Physical security

Plans and procedures

Security regime

Aon LimitedCrisis Management

e-mail: [email protected]

© Copyright Aon Limited 2007. All rights reserved.

www.riskadvisory.netwww.janusian.com

TERRORISM THREAT MAP 2007 Terrorism threat is defined as an assessment of the intent, capability and likelihood of terrorists staging attacks. All assessments for the Terrorism Threat Map 2007 draw upon open and privileged intelligence data. Usingthis data, a panel of Janusian analysts have assigned threat levels by scoring each country according to thefollowing threat indicators for 2007:• Known and active groups or networks operating in a given country• Their aims and stated objectives• Their track record of terrorist activity, including target selection • Their operational capabilities to stage attacks • The likely erosion of terrorist capabilities through the current counter-terrorism regime in the given country

AdviceJanusian and Aon recommend that terrorism threat can be mitigated by the following:• Implement a proportionate security risk management scheme to identify and reduce the vulnerabilities to

personnel and business assets based upon an expert risk assessment• Transfer risk though an appropriate insurance policy to reduce the impact of any attack

TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT

Page 2: Terrorism Threat Map 2007...Transport, maritime and aviation: 5% Utilities and telecoms: 5% Business: 4% Educational institutions: 3% NGO and media: 2% Tourism: 0.4% Other: 7% TERRORISM

Terrorism Threat Map

2007

BC1647 – 06.07 FP ref: 3943

Published by Corporate Communications UK

Published by Aon Limited.

Registered office 8 Devonshire Square,

London EC2M 4PL

© Copyright Aon Limited 2007.

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or

transmitted in any way or by any means,

including photocopying or recording,

without the written permission of the

copyright holder, application for which

should be addressed to

the copyright holder.

Aon Limited is authorised and regulated by

the Financial Services Authority in respect of

insurance mediation activities only.

8 Devonshire SquareLondon EC2M 4PLUnited Kingdom

www.aon.com

tel: +44 (0)20 7623 5500 fax: +44 (0)20 7621 1511

Aon Limited

We combine insurance with risk management to provide an innovative answer to the growing challenge of terrorism.Our risk management is based on an unrivalled database on terrorism insurance and the experience of our team of counter-terrorism professionals.

Our risk management service models the impact of possible terrorist events on your organisation.Our consultants measure all aspects of your business from a counter-terrorism point of view, quantifying your potential financial liabilities and modes of possible protection.

Aon is a world leader in terrorism solutions.We have direct experience of protecting against terrorism. Our brokers have many years’ experience of placing this class of insurance and our consultants include former government security agency, military and private sector analysis staff.