terrorist, hurricanes, and viruses, what’s next?
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Terrorist, Hurricanes, and Viruses, What’s next?. Tampa, Florida March 12th, 2006 James G. Young, M.D. Special Advisor to the Deputy Minister Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada. Will we face emergencies?. Aging and interconnected infrastructure Terrorism - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Tampa, FloridaMarch 12th, 2006
James G. Young, M.D.Special Advisor to the Deputy MinisterPublic Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada
Terrorist, Hurricanes, and Viruses, What’s next?
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Will we face emergencies?
Aging and interconnected infrastructure
Terrorism
Natural emergencies and global warming
Political deaths
Emerging diseases and pandemics
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Trends In Emergencies
More frequent
Bigger
International in scope
Complex
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Aging and Interconnected Infrastructure
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Blackout 2003
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Blackout Facts
August 14, 2004, 4:00 pm
50 million people
61,800 megawatts of load
OHIO, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Ontario
Northern portion of eastern grid
10% of total grid
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The Causes
Inadequate situational awareness at First Energy Training inadequate Procedures inadequate Equipment needs
Inadequate tree timing Sagging wires because of heat
Inadequate diagnostic support along system
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Roles of Forensics and Policing
Assess cyber risk
Investigate physical damage
Public safety and security
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Terrorism
Cyber
Bombs
Biological
Chemical
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Indonesia
Land Area 1,919,443 square kilometers
Population: 211 million
4th Largest in the World
Muslims 90%
Largest Muslim Country in World (India 2nd)
GNP per Head $690 U.S.
GNP Growth 2% (77 - 2001);
(33 in 2001)
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Jemaaj Islamiah
Aim Muslim axis – Indonesia, Malaysia, South Philippines
Links Al Qaeda
Arrest Abu Bakar Bashir
Declaration as terrorist organization
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Countries Involved
Indonesia (Lead) (40)
Australia (80)
Britain (30)
New Zealand
Sweden (6)
Canada (2)
United States (2)
South Africa (2)
TOTAL (190)
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Role of foreign countries
Scientific Expertise
Investigative Expertise
Organizational Structure and Support
(e.g. computers)
Medical Aid
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Guerillas Fighters Versus Terrorists
Guerillas Fighters want to occupy Territory
Terrorists want to occupy Thinking
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Some Roles of Forensic Science in Terrorism
Who died?
Who did it?
What caused it?
How was it done?
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Multidisciplinary Approach To Terrorism
Shoe Bomber – Richard Reid
Analysis of Bomb
Multi-agency Re-creation
Mitochondria Hair Analysis
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Anthrax- Role of Science
Identify agent
Advise re decontamination
Techniques to open letters
Information re anthrax made
When anthrax made
Characteristics of anthrax
Analysis of other evidence
e.g. tape, ink, fibers, DNA, copying
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Immediate Effects in Ontario
Public safety
Operate government
Air space
Border problems
Economic consequences
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The Death Toll
DATE MISSING BODIES IDENTIFIED
Sept. 16 --- 140 90
Sept. 17 a.m. 4,957 190
( 37 emergency personnel )
115
Sept. 17 p.m. 5,422 201 135
Sept. 19 5,400 256 135
Sept. 20 6.333 --- ---
Sept. 29 5,960 306 258
Oct. 18 4,650 338 445
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9-11 Identification
> 50%
Recognition
Dental
Fingerprints
DNA Heat Decomposition Volume
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Natural Emergencies and Global Warming
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Tsunamis Devastate Asia December 26, 2004
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Who Died?
Original numbers
Checking the numbers
Remembering to report back
Duplication
• spelling
• reports by relatives
• countries
Individuals not reporting
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Identifying Bodies
30 countries plus Thailand
Countries in support Thailand
All bodies managed same way
Agreeing on a protocol
Get message to all levels
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Establishing Identity
Post mortem
Ante mortem
Reconciliation process
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Ante Mortem
When should we begin?
All countries collect, process DNA
standard computer program
RCMP Vancouver collect, enter
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Reconciliation Centre
Physically establish
Write processes
Collect post mortem information
Ongoing staffing – data entry, administration, DNA scientists, fingerprint, deontologists, anthropologists
Extended period of operation
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Establishing Identity
Presumptive
jewellery, clothing, personal effects scars, moles, tattoos
Scientific
fingerprints dental DNA
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Why Presumptive Identification Does Not Work
Decomposition
Relatives glance at body
Similarities of, e.g. tattoos
Transferred documentation
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Results – Tsunami Identifications
Ante mortem records - 3 615
Identifications - 2 732
Canadian reconciliations - 24 of 24
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Identification of Humans
DNA Dental FingerprintsTattoos
ScarsRecognition
Swiss Air X X X
9/11 X XX X X
Bali X X X X
Tsunami X X X X X
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The Future
Mass disasters will occur
Multiple countries/disciplines involved
Role for police, forensic science and forensic medicine
Planning and protocols help
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Political Deaths
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The Untimely death of a leaderAbiola (1937-1998)
Nigeria
Population
Economy
Tribal History
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Emerging Diseases and Pandemics
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SARS : The Toronto Experience
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SARS
Example of Bioterror
Example of Pandemic
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Hong Kong – The Metropole Hotel
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Feb 23, index case returns from Hong KongMarch 5, index case dies at homeMarch 7, case 2 in ERMarch 13, case 2 dies; 5 family members admitted
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March 12th – WHO Alert
Atypical pneumonia
Health workers most affected
Unidentified cause
Spreading in south-east Asia
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Case A(died)
Case B(died)
Case C(died)
4 members of family A
Family A’sphysician
1 CC
1 X-ray tech
3 ICU nurses
1 HH
3HH
3 EMS
March 16, 20037 ER visitors1 ER patient
5 HH1 CC
6 CCU nurses
3 HH
1 CCU Clerk
1 physician1 physician’s clerk
3 HH
1 CCU patient( 1 died)
Transferred toanother hospital
1 physician
1 HH
Figure 3. Transmission of SARS in Hospital A (N=72)
2 ER nurses 2 ER nurses
1 ER Clerk
Case B’s wife(died)
4 ER nurses Clinic nurse
1 Housekeeper
1 HH
1 Housekeeper
1 EMS
LEGEND
Case
Household case
Close contact case
Transmission outsideof Hospital A
HH
Transferred toHospital B
Index Case(died)
Case C’s wife
1 coworker privatesector
CC
1 visitor1 ER patient
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The role of Forensics in Emerging Illness
Identification of Agent
Genetic Code to Map progression
Management of outbreak
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Pandemic Impacts
11,000 - 58,000 deaths
34,000 - 138,000 hospitalizations
2 - 5 million out patients
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Workplace Effects
Spread worldwide within 3 months
Regional differences in outbreak timing
Absenteeism over 6-8 weeks
25-35% absent during peak weeks
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Pandemic Waves
Peaks occur over 12-18 months
Fist peaks 2-4 months after virus arrive
Peaks last 6-8 weeks
Multiple breakouts in country but not entire country at once
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Partnerships
“None of us is as smart as all of us
Our most important weapon is human ingenuity
and our ability to think