TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION

NEEDS ASSESSMENT

FINAL REPORT

Findings and Policy Implications

October 29, 2012

Project Partners

Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human Resources

LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin

Hobby Center for the

Study of Texas

Rice University

Understand and estimate

the total number of children under age

13 and those eligible for early childhood

education programs

Objective 1:

Data Sources

U.S. Census Data, 2000 and 2010 Population of Texas children ages 0-12

Texas Department of Health Birth and death rates

American Community Survey, 2006-2010 Socioeconomic characteristics of

households

Types of Results

Change in 0-12 population, 2000-2010

Child population projections to 2015 and 2040

Socioeconomic characteristics of households with children 0-12 in 2010 and projected to 2015

All results presented for: Entire state Councils of Governments Metropolitan Areas Counties

Key Population Findings

Nearly 5 million Texas children ages 0-12 in 2010

Texas child population increased by 17% from 2000 to 2010 and accounted for over 50% of total US growth

Growth expected to slow from 2010 to 2015 but still larger than growth in any other state over past 10 years

Growth concentrated within metro areas and dominated by minorities

Hispanic children were 49% of total in 2010 and projected to make up 65% of growth to 2015

1.2 million children (24.9%) were living in poverty in 2010; 1.3 million (25.4%) projected to do so in 2015

Historical Population Change

Growth of Number of Children Ages 0-12, 2000-2010

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Total US

Growth

Texas Georgia North Carolina

Florida Arizona Utah Colorado Nevada Virginia Tennessee

Num

ber o

f Chi

ldre

n Ag

e 0-

12

Ten States with the Largest Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2010

  Population Ages 0 - 12

  Change 2000-2010  

Percent of U.S.

Growth  Percent of U.S. Population

Ages 0 - 12

State 2000 2010   Numeric Percent   2000-2010   2000 2010

United States 52,190,294 53,566,892   1,376,598 2.6   100.0   100.0 100.0

California 6,794,523 6,569,785   -224,738 -3.3   ---   13.0 12.3

Texas 4,263,103 4,995,269   732,166 17.2   53.2   8.2 9.3

New York 3,406,691 3,037,396   -369,295 -10.8   ---   6.5 5.7

Florida 2,620,799 2,829,250   208,451 8.0   15.1   5.0 5.3

Illinois 2,358,110 2,219,602   -138,508 -5.9   ---   4.5 4.1

Pennsylvania 2,078,095 1,952,911   -125,184 -6.0   ---   4.0 3.6

Ohio 2,071,345 1,933,322   -138,023 -6.7   ---   4.0 3.6

Georgia 1,582,449 1,800,092   217,643 13.8   15.8   3.0 3.4

North Carolina 1,440,385 1,651,480   211,095 14.7   15.3   2.8 3.1

Michigan 1,871,773 1,636,202   -235,571 -12.6   ---   3.6 3.1

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, Summary File 1--- indicates negative percent’s because of decline in early childhood and school age populations.

 

Ten States with the Largest Percentage Change in the Early Childhood and School Age Population, 2000-2010

  Population Ages 0 - 12

  Change 2000-2010  

Percent of U.S. Growth  

Percent of U.S. Population Ages 0 - 12

State 2000 2010   Numeric Percent   2000-2010   2000 2010

United States 52,190,294 53,566,892   1,376,598 2.6   100.0   100.0 100.0

Utah 517,577 653,618   136,041 26.3   9.9   1.0 1.2

Nevada 380,714 480,368   99,654 26.2   7.2   0.7 0.9

Idaho 261,027 313,731   52,704 20.2   3.8   0.5 0.6

Arizona 1,003,040 1,180,034   176,994 17.6   12.9   1.9 2.2

Texas 4,263,103 4,995,269   732,166 17.2   53.2   8.2 9.3

North Carolina 1,440,385 1,651,480   211,095 14.7   15.3   2.8 3.1

Georgia 1,582,449 1,800,092   217,643 13.8   15.8   3.0 3.4

Wyoming 87,400 99,234   11,834 13.5   0.9   0.2 0.2

Colorado 793,579 894,187   100,608 12.7   7.3   1.5 1.7

Florida 2,620,799 2,829,250   208,451 8.0   15.1   5.0 5.3

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, Summary File 1

Percent Change in Child Population, Ages 0-12 2000-2010

Percent Change<100 Persons in 2000 Population decline (118)No change or less than 10% (69)At least 10% but less than State growth [17.2% (26)]Greater or equal to State growth [17.2% (38)]

Ten Counties with the Largest Projected Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2015 and Numeric and Percent Change in that Population, 2000-2010, and 2010-2015

   PopulationAges 0 - 12 Change 2000-2010

Projected Change2010-2015

 County 2000 2010 2015 Numeric Percent Numeric

Percent 

1 Harris 725,248 842,917 891,961 117,669 16.2 49,044 5.8  

2 Dallas 458,533 481,468 501,974 22,935 5.0 20,506 4.3  

3 Tarrant 298,712 371,121 393,734 72,409 24.2 22,613 6.1  

4 Bexar 287,459 337,913 353,105 50,454 17.6 15,192 4.5  

5 Travis 143,582 185,011 210,120 41,429 28.9 25,109 13.6  

6 Hidalgo 148,944 196,524 206,305 47,580 31.9 9,781 5.0  

7 Collin 106,893 164,342 175,802 57,449 53.7 11,460 7.0  

8 El Paso 157,438 170,952 173,392 13,514 8.6 2,440 1.4  

9 Denton 89,388 134,053 145,948 44,665 50.0 11,895 8.9  

10 Fort Bend 79,738 123,283 137,404 43,545 54.6 14,121 11.5  

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010 S.F. 1, 2015 Preliminary Projections

Early Childhood and School Age Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and 2010, and Numeric and Percent Change, 2000-2010

  

Population Population Change Percent of Total Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric PercentPercent of

Total Change2000 2010

NH White 1,767,730 1,646,728 -121,002 -6.8 -16.5 41.5 33.0

Hispanic (All Races) 1,773,614 2,463,635 690,021 38.9 94.2 41.6 49.3

NH Black 528,276 573,576 45,300 8.6 6.2 12.4 11.5

NH Asian & Others 193,483 311,330 117,847 60.9 16.1 4.5 6.2

Total 4,263,103 4,995,269 732,166 17.2 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races.  All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171.

Population Projections

Population Distribution for Ages 0-12, 2010

0-2 years old

3-4 years old

5-12 years old Total

1,151,310 777,163 3,066,796 4,995,269

0-2 years old23%

3-4 years old16%

5-12 years old61%

0-2 years old

3-4 years old

5-12 years old

Population Distribution for Ages 0-12, 2040

0-2 years old

3-4 years old

5-12 years old Total

1,932,229 1,251,298 4,864,023 8,047,550

Composition of the Early Childhood Population (Age 0-12) in Texas

32%

33%

42%

11%

12%

12%

50%

49%

42%

7%

6%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2015

2010

2000

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian & Other

Early Childhood and School Age Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected for 2015, and Numeric and Percent Change, 2010-2015

  

Population Population Change Percent of Total Population

Race/Ethnicity* 2010 2015 Numeric PercentPercent of

Total Change2010 2015

NH White 1,646,728 1,683,695 36,967 2.2 12.2 33.0 31.8

Hispanic (All Races) 2,463,635 2,661,241 197,606 8.0 65.2 49.3 50.2

NH Black 573,576 595,072 21,496 3.7 7.1 11.5 11.2

NH Asian & Others 311,330 358,333 47,003 15.1 15.5 6.2 6.8

Total 4,995,269 5,298,341 303,072 6.1 100.0 100.0 100.0

*Hispanic includes persons of all races.  All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.

Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Population Projections

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected COGs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected COGs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected COGs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Percent Change in Early Childhood Population for Councils of Governments Regions, 2000-2010 and 2010-2015

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000-2010 2010-2015

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected MSAs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected MSAs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected MSAs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Percent Change in Early Childhood Population for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Texas, 2000-2010 and 2010-2015

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000-2010 2010-2015

Metropolitan Statistical Areas’ Shares of Total Statewide Change in the Early Childhood Population, 2000-2010 and 2010-2015

Dallas-Fort Worth-

Arlington25%

HoustonSugar and‐Baytown‐

28%

AustinRound Rock‐San Marcos‐

15%

San Antonio-New

Braunfels7%

McAllenEdinburg‐

Mission‐3%

Non-MSA7%

All Others15%

2010-2015

Dallas-Fort Worth-

Arlington31%

HoustonSugar Land‐Baytown‐

29%

AustinRound Rock‐San Marcos‐

12%

San Antonio‐New

Braunfels9%

McAllenEdinburg‐Mission‐

7%

Non-MSA1%

All Others11%

2000-2010

Ten Counties with the Largest Projected Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2015 and Numeric and Percent Change in that Population, 2000-2010, and 2010-2015

   PopulationAges 0 - 12 Change 2000-2010

Projected Change2010-2015

 County 2000 2010 2015 Numeric Percent Numeric

Percent 

1 Harris 725,248 842,917 891,961 117,669 16.2 49,044 5.8  

2 Dallas 458,533 481,468 501,974 22,935 5.0 20,506 4.3  

3 Tarrant 298,712 371,121 393,734 72,409 24.2 22,613 6.1  

4 Bexar 287,459 337,913 353,105 50,454 17.6 15,192 4.5  

5 Travis 143,582 185,011 210,120 41,429 28.9 25,109 13.6  

6 Hidalgo 148,944 196,524 206,305 47,580 31.9 9,781 5.0  

7 Collin 106,893 164,342 175,802 57,449 53.7 11,460 7.0  

8 El Paso 157,438 170,952 173,392 13,514 8.6 2,440 1.4  

9 Denton 89,388 134,053 145,948 44,665 50.0 11,895 8.9  

10 Fort Bend 79,738 123,283 137,404 43,545 54.6 14,121 11.5  

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010 S.F. 1, 2015 Preliminary Projections

Percent Change in the Early Childhood and School Age Population, 2010-2015

<100 Persons in 2010 Population decline (70)No change or less than State growth of 6.1% (117)Greater or equal to State growth 6.1% (62)

Percent Change

Ten Counties with the Largest Projected Numeric Change in the Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2015 and Numeric and Percent Change in that Population, 2000-2010 and 2010-2015

   

Population Ages 0 - 12

 Change 2000-2010

 Projected Change

2010-2015 

 County2000 2010 2015

 Numeric Percent

 Numeric Percent  

1 Harris 725,248 842,917 891,961   117,669 16.2   49,044 5.8  

2 Travis 143,582 185,011 210,120   41,429 28.9   25,109 13.6  

3 Tarrant 298,712 371,121 393,734   72,409 24.2   22,613 6.1  

4 Dallas 458,533 481,468 501,974   22,935 5.0   20,506 4.3  

5 Bexar 287,459 337,913 353,105   50,454 17.6   15,192 4.5  

6 Fort Bend 79,738 123,283 137,404   43,545 54.6   14,121 11.5  

7 Denton 89,388 134,053 145,948   44,665 50.0   11,895 8.9  

8 Williamson 55,159 89,820 101,488   34,661 62.8   11,668 13.0  

9 Collin 106,893 164,342 175,802   57,449 53.7   11,460 7.0  

10 Montgomery 62,192 90,371 101,130   28,179 45.3   10,759 11.9  

Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010 S.F. 1, 2015 Preliminary Projections

Socioeconomic Characteristics

Living Arrangements of Children Ages 0-12 in Texas

One Parent

26%

Both Parents

70%

Other4%

2000

One Parent

34%

Both Parents

62%

Other4%

2010

Top 10 Counties with the Largest Projected 2015 Population Age 0-12 in Poverty

For Additional Information

Deanna Schexnayder

Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human ResourcesLyndon B. Johnson School of Public AffairsThe University of Texas At Austin(512) 471-7891dschex@raymarshallcenter.org