texas population characteristics, trends, and projections · 2014. 5. 12. · source: u.s. census...
TRANSCRIPT
Frisco Chamber of
Commerce
May 9, 2014
Frisco, Texas
Texas Population Characteristics,
Trends, and Projections
Growing States, 2000-2010
2
2000
Population*
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth
of the Hispanic population
Percent Change
Due to
Year* Population
Numerical
Change
Annual
Percent
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 49.65 50.35
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 54.94 45.06
2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 52.05 47.95
2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as
estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2012
3
Population Estimates, 2012-2013
4
Estimate 2012 Estimate 2013
Pop Change 12-13
Natural increase
12-13
International Migration 12-
13
Domestic Migration
12-13
Texas 26,060,796 26,448,193 387,397 208,045 64,187 113,528
Collin County 834,674 854,778 20,104 6,807 3,030 10,423
Dallas County 2,453,907 2,480,331 26,424 24,010 9,226 (5,925)
Denton County 708,050 728,799 20,749 6,339 2,105 12,294
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates
Population Estimates, 2012-2013
5
% Pop Change 12-
13
% Natural increase
12-13
% International Migration 12-
13
% Domestic Migration 12-
13
Texas 1.5% 53.7% 16.6% 29.3%
Collin County 2.4% 33.9% 15.1% 51.8%
Dallas County 1.1% 90.9% 34.9% -22.4%
Denton County 2.9% 30.6% 10.1% 59.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates
Total Estimated Population by County, 2012
6Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates
Along and east of I-35:
40% of land
86% of population
92% of population growth (2011-2012)
Legend
POPESTIMATE2012
71-10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,001-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,253,700
Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012
7Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.
96 counties lost
population over the
two year period
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
popchg4201072012
LT 0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
20,001-80,000
80,001-161,252
Of counties that lost population
90% had net out migration
47% had natural decline
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
8
Percent Increase
1. Midland, Texas 4.6
2. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.7
3. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.6
4. The Villages, Fla. 3.4
5. Odessa, Texas 3.4
6. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.3
7. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.0
8. Casper, Wyo. 3.0
9. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.9
10. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012
9
NumericIncrease
1. Harris, Texas 80,005
2. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,764
3. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,644
4. Dallas, Texas 45,827
5. San Diego, Calif. 38,880
6. King, Wash. 35,838
7. Travis, Texas 34,381
8. Orange, Calif. 34,017
9. Tarrant, Texas 32,997
10. Clark, Nev. 32,833
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
Numeric change in Hispanic population, by county, 2000-2010
10
Numeric Change Hispanic 2000-2010
nch_hsp0010
-1,200 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 5,000
5,001 - 15,000
15,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 56,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Numeric change in Asian population, by county, 2000-2010
11Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Numeric Change Asian 2000-2010
nch_asi0010
-198 - 0
1 - 500
501 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 77,000
Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population in Texas, 1990-2012
12
mill
ion
s
Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed, www.pewresearch.org/hispanic
13
14
Percent who lived in a different house one year ago, census tracts, 2007-2011
15
Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP2_HC03_VC119 pctdiff house 1yr
0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-50%
50-91%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-year Sample, 2007-2011.
Percent Hispanic, Texas Counties, 2007-2011
16
Legend
tl_2013_us_state
PCT HISP 11 5YR
DP5_HC03_VC82
0-10%
11-20%
2-40%
41-75%
76-99%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011
Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks Spanish and speaks English less than very well, Texas Counties, 2008-2012
17
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
PctSpanEngLTVW
0-5%
5.1-10%
10.1-20%
20.1-35%
35.1-50%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012
18
Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom
Percent of the population age 5 and over that speaks language other than English at home and speaks English less than very well,
census tracts, 2007-2011
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP3_HC03_VC170%speakothEnghomeEngLTwell
0-10%
10-15%
15-40%
40-60%
60-100%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-year Sample, 2007-2011.
Percent of the population that is native born, Texas Counties, 2007-2011
19
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_County
DP2_HC03_VC130
40-70%
71-85%
86-90%
91-95%
96-100%
ACS_11_5YR_County
DP2_HC03_VC189
0.000000 - 3.000000
3.000001 - 5.000000
5.000001 - 10.000000
10.000001 - 20.000000
20.000001 - 36.500000
tl_2013_us_stateSource: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2007-2011
20
Percent of the population that is foreign born, census tracts, 2007-2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-year Sample, 2007-2011.
Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP2_HC03_VC134 pct FB
0-5%
5-15%
15-25%
25-40%
40-74%
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black11%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
Hispanic or Latino
38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Un
der
1 y
ear
4 y
ears
8 y
ears
12
yea
rs
16
yea
rs
20
yea
rs
24
yea
rs
28
yea
rs
32
yea
rs
36
yea
rs
40
yea
rs
44
yea
rs
48
yea
rs
52
yea
rs
56
yea
rs
60
yea
rs
64
yea
rs
68
yea
rs
72
yea
rs
76
yea
rs
80
yea
rs
84
yea
rs
88
yea
rs
92
yea
rs
96
yea
rs
10
0 t
o 1
04
…
Po
pu
lati
on
Age
White (non-Hispanic)
Hispanic
22Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
NH White Male NH White Female
23Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male
Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
24Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male
NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
25Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Zero
.5 of 2000-2010
2000-2010
Migration Scenarios
26Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
27Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Projected Population of Dallas County, 2010-2050 by Race/Ethnicity
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Total Pop Anglo Total Black Total Hispanic Total Other Total
28Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 of 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Total Pop Anglo Total Black Total Hispanic Total Other Total
29Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , .5 of 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Projected Population of Collin County, 2010-2050 by Race/Ethnicity
Projected Population of Denton County, 2010-2050 by Race/Ethnicity
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Total Pop Anglo Total Black Total Hispanic Total Other Total
30Source: Texas State Data Center (2012), Texas Population Projections Vintage 2012, .5 of 2000-2010 Migration Scenario (http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Projections/Index.aspx)
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational Attainment
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older
State Ranking
High school diploma or equivalency or greater
81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA
and MS)
Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29
31Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009
19%
6%
71%
3%
32
67%
8%
15%
9%
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.
Less Than High SchoolCollege and Greater
Trends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, and 2030 Using
Trended Rates, Texas
34
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%
18.1%
24.0%
29.9%
18.7%
9.3%
11.4%
20.4%
34.3%
22.1%
11.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / AssociateDegree
Bachelor's Degree Graduate or ProfessionalDegree
Per
cen
t o
f th
e C
ivili
an L
abo
r Fo
rce
Educational Attainment
2011 ACS
2030 Constant
2030 Trended
Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration ScenarioU.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Race/Ethnicity in 2011, and Projected for 2030 Using Constant Rates and
Using Trended Rates of Educational Attainment, Texas
35
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000White Black Hispanic Other
2011 ACS Estimate 2030 Projected Constant Educational Attainment
2030 Projected Trended Educational Attainment
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Percent of adults age 25 and older with a high school or equivalent and more education, census tracts 2007-2001
36
Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-year Sample, 2007-2011.
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
HS and Greater
LT 61%
61-70%
71-85%
86-90%
91-100%
Percent of the labor force employed in management, business, science, and arts occupations, census tracts, 2007-2011
37Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-year Sample, 2007-2011.
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
Pct Business Science
0-15%
15.1 - 25%
25.1 - 35%
35.1 - 45%
45.1 - 85%
38Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China(Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), TomTom
Percent of the labor force employed in natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations, census tracts,
2007-2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Five-year Sample, 2007-2011.
Demographics and Destiny
39
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
40
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.