th quarter 2018 mountain...

303-962-4272 | www.yourcastle.com© Your Castle – 2018 – Q4 Mountain Trends Report

4 t h Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 8 M O U N T A I N T R E N D S

1


WHO IS YOUR CASTLE REAL ESTATE?

America’sFastest-GrowingPrivate Company

2014: #29512015: #21632016: #2313

Denver’sFastest-GrowingPrivate Company

2014: #52016: #102018: #5

Awards and Honors… As Seen In…

Top 500 Ranking by Sales Volume:

2018: #86Top 500 Ranking by

Transactions:2018: #102

Best of Colorado 2017Best Residential Real

Estate Agency

Best Commercial Real Estate Agency

Established in 2004, Your Castle Realty and Your Castle Real Estate has grown to become the largest independent and 6th largest real estate company on the Front Range according to the Denver Business Journal, with more than 650 agents in 8 offices. Currently, we are the 154th largest and 5th fastest growing real estate company in the country. We sold over $2 billion of real estate in 2018.

Your Castle has appeared in many local and national publications including recent awards from the Denver Business Journal and Inc. 5000 (see below).

We are passionate about delivering exceptional consumer experiences. By offering a complete suite of real estate services, we ensure that we meet our client’s every need. From sales and rentals, to commercial and new builds, we have experts in every field to guide you skillfully.

We believe that access to the best and most timely information can dramatically shape our decisions. No one does more research on the local housing market than Your Castle. Today’s consumer needs a trusted resource that can separate signal from noise and help them navigate the complex process that real estate has become. With our extensive knowledge in every aspect of the field, and fueled by consumer research and insights, we are the go-to source for market information and education.

In 2018, Your Castle Real Estate exceeded $145,000 in charitable donations and is excited to partner with Mile High United Way in order to contribute $15,000 to their inspiring cause! Mile High United Way champions education, health, and financial stability throughout the Metro Denver area.12

Your Castle Real Estate: Local Knowledge. Total Commitment.

2

https://www.unitedwaydenver.org/


We work all over Colorado! We have over 550+ real estate agents and the map below showcases only a handful of where we serve. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us if you are buying, selling or investing in other areas of Colorado!

OUR AGENTS

3


1. COMPARISON OF ALL RESORT MARKETS

2. VAIL / BEAVER CREEK

3. SUMMIT (DILLON, FRISCO, KEYSTONE, BRECKENRIDGE, COPPER)

4. GRAND (GRANBY, GRAND LAKE, WINTER PARK)

5. STEAMBOAT

6. ECONOMICS OF RENTING A UNIT

QUESTIONS?

SUMMIT: AMY NAKOS, 970-389-8388, [email protected]

VAIL, WINTER PARK: MONICA GRAVES, 303-901-5224, [email protected]

STEAMBOAT: WILL KENNISH, 970-875-4115, [email protected]

4

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


AVERAGE CONDO PRICE ($000)

235

441

413

490

551

535

607

750

824

533

1,260

1,635

1,974

2,961

4,289

390

Granby

Winter Park

Dillon

Silv'thn

Keystone

Copper

Frisco

Breck

E Vail

Avon

Arrowhd

Bvr Crk

B'Gulch

Lions Hd

Vail Vlg

Steamboat

Avg = $1,675K

Avg = $593K

Avg = $397K

MOI

2.0

1.2

1.3

3.3

1.6

3.2

1.5

2.0

2.9

4.1

10.5

9.1

17.6

10.4

16.2

7.1

Avg = 8.2

Avg = 2.1

Steamboat is well past the bottom.

Despite the “buyer’s market” levelof inventory, prices for goodproperties are going up… whilestale (over priced and/ or lessdesirable) properties stagnate onmarket. Buyers should activelylook now for their dream property.Be ready to act fast when it finallybecomes available. Newconstruction can also bias results.For example in Vail, the new “Lion”project has brought many just-builtunits on the market all at once,greatly increasing MOI.

All Summit County sub-marketsappreciated in 2016 and 2017, andcontinued through 2018. Copperhistorically lags the other resortmarkets, and then suddenlycatches up. Choice properties cansell quickly, so follow new listings.

The Grand County markets arepast the bottom. They are goodvalues, historically.

MOI = Months of Inventory. Under 4 months is a sellers market. Over 7 months is buyer’s market. 4-6 MOI is a “balanced” market.TTM = Trailing twelve months.

HOW THE MARKETS COMPARE

Grand County (e.g., Winter Park) is a lot more affordable than Summit or Vail/BC. “Choice” properties find buyers much faster than the inventory numbers suggest – in ALL areas. Analysis attached homes, Jan 2017 – Dec 2017 vs Jan 2018 – Dec 2018

PRICE CHANGE TTM

20%

23%

31%

8%

9%

23%

9%

14%

15%

10%

6%

-9%

-7%

11%

17%

-11%

MARKET SUMMARY

5


$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

199

5

199

7

199

9

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

Historically, Denver leads the resorts in the market recovery. Denver has recovered all losses from the recession. Summit has also fully recovered. Vail is only somewhat past the bottom and has good values. Grand County (Winter Park) has recovered fully. Steamboat also has good values for buyers.

Note: DSF = Detached Single Family Home

Denver Metro (DSF only) $000 Vail Valley Sales Prices in $000,000

Summit County $000 Steamboat $000

Average Appreciation 1992-2018: 5.7%

Avg Appreciation 1992-2018: 6.9%

Grand (Winter Park)$000


$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

Average Appreciation 1990-2018: 6.7%

Data includes DSF and ASF, unless otherwise noted. Prices are in thousands, unless otherwise noted.


6

HOW THE MARKETS COMPARE


Grand and Summit trend lines are the most similar, with Summit selling at an average of 60% higher than Grand. Steamboat has similar trends as Summit, but takes bigger swings. Grand trails Denver’s trends by about three years.

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Denver

Summit

Steamboat

Grand County

AVERAGE PROPERTY PR ICE (HOMES AND CONDOS COMBINED)

HISTORIC MARKET COMPARISON

Data Source: YCRE analysis

*Vail was not included here as the higher rates would skew remaining data series.

7

Steamboat

Summit

Grand

Denver

Bottom 2008

Bottom 2011

Bottom 2013





4. GRAND (FRASER, GRANBY, GRAND LAKE, WINTER PARK)

5. STEAMBOAT


TODAY’S DISCUSSION

QUESTIONS?




8



Summary of market conditions (seller’s point of view)… Most of Vail Valley is past the bottom. MOI = Months of Inventory. 6 MOI is a balanced market; over 6 MOI is a buyer’s market. Buyers should look now. Seller’s market for entry level product. Moderate prices up and down, with the exception of Beaver Creek – seeing another period of great appreciation!

Analysis for Jan 2017 – Dec 2017 vs Jan 2018 – Dec 2018 Worse for sellers

Better for sellers

Note: “Vail Valley” = ONLY Arrowhead, Avon, BG, BC, Lionshead, Vail Village, East Vail

Market Price $MM Units Sold MOI Observations

Avon $0.49 to $0.54 +10%

130 to 110 -15%

4.0 Prices up ’13 thru ‘16. Drop in ‘17 likely due to mix. Volume down in ‘15 but up in ’16 and ‘17. MOI has been relatively steady. Modest price gains in ’18, as predicted.

East Vail

$0.83 to $1.04 +25%

68 to 80 +18%

3.2 Great market for sellers. Prices are up 25% and MOI is decreasing. Prices were down in ’15 and ‘16, mostly due to more condo and fewer home sales. Up in ’17, and continued to increasing throughout 2018.

Arrow Head

$1.55 to $1.38 -11%

51 to 34 -33%

9.9 Prices stabilized in 2014, been a little choppy ever since. MOI dropped in ‘14 -’17. Year over year, sales have decreased by a third, but MOI is slowly returning to a balanced market.

BeaverCreek

$2.14 to $2.21 +3%

87 to 109 +25%

7.9 Prices stable in ’15; down ’16 and up in ‘17. MOI decreasing recently. Time to sell after two consecutive years of 20%+ appreciation!

Bach Gulch

$4.30 to $1.99 -54%

34 to 18 -47%

16.7 Prices were up in ‘16 and ’17, but both prices and sales are down year over year. Inventory has declined a lot since ‘14. Buyers’ market continues to strengthen.

Lionshead $2.67 to $2.96 +11%

38 to 51 +34%

10.4 Consistent double-digit appreciation. Though MOI is increasing, units sold are also up. Expensive units in “The Lion” new development project increasing average price.

VailVillage

$4.16 to $5.02 +21%

40 to 51 +28%

7.8 Vaile Village has picked up steam for sellers over the past six months. Prices are up, units sold is up, and MOI is half of what it used to be!

Vail Valley Total

$1.78 to $1.93 +8%

448 to 453 +1%

7.8 Overall, prices were up. The mix of what sold is what drove some of the price change. “Entry level” (cheapest 25%) doing well, high end is generally slower. It’s still a buyers’ market (for high end and mid-range), but the sustained inventory reductions are reducing the buyers’ advantage. It’s a seller’s market for entry level in most areas.

EAGLE COUNTY : SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS

Data Source: Rapattoni MLS; YCRE analysis

9


The average price in the Vail Valley has gone up dramatically in the last 20 years. Prices fell 41% between 2008 and 2011 for condos of any age. If you look at condos built in 2005 and earlier, they had the same price drop, but their average price is a lot less than the recent construction. Volume, which was hit with a 73% decline, has mostly recovered. This is why inventories which were bloated in 2013 have improved a lot. Prices are at 8 year highs.

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

100

200

300

400

500

600

Average Vail/BC Annual Appreciation including market correction = 6.7% / yr.

Condo prices, built 2005 or earlier = 5.3% /yr. Denver = 5.7% / yr.

A V E R A G E S O L D P R I C E N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D

EAGLE COUNTY PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS



One time spike from large new development project- Arrabelle- Ritz Carlton 2x- Westin- Solaris, etc. etc.

One time spike from large new projects

10

Condos, built 2005 or earlier

All Condos, any age


There are two leading indicators for market recovery. DOM (days on market) and discounts grow in a downturn. When they return to historical levels, prices usually return to consistent appreciation within 24 months. DOM is at a 30yr low! The discount for the past four years has been hovering around the 22yr average of 5%.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Avg = 325

A V E R A G E D O M ( D A Y S O N M A R K E T ) A V E R A G E D I S C O U N T

-12%

-11%

-10%

-9%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

Data Source: Local resort MLS; YCRE analysis

EAGLE COUNTY DOM AND DISCOUNT TRENDS


Average = -5.0%


11


Average prices have dropped -48% from the peak are still great values. Volume of sales dropped 60%+ from peak. Statistics of condos verses total are converging; attached homes making up nearly all of the inventory.

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N A R R O W H E A D $ 0 0 0N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N

A R R O W H E A D

ARROWHEAD PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS


One time spike from large new development (Cresta)

One time spike from large new development (Cresta)

12


Condos are over 90% of the market in Avon. Prices dropped 58% from the peak and have recovered for several years. The large Westin project helped to buoy prices for condos in 2008 and 2010. Sales volumes are mostly recovered. Avon has the second lowest MOI in Vail Valley.

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N A V O N N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N A V O N

AVON PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS


One time spike from large new development project (Westin)

13


Average BG prices in 2010 dropped -35% from the peak, but this was largely driven by mix of what was sold. Overall, prices have recovered more than the chart suggests. Bachelor Gulch has the lowest sales volume in the Valley by far. One or two sales can swing the average in either direction.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N B A C H E L O R G U L C H N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N B G

BACHELOR GULCH PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000


14

Spike in 2002: Release of Snow Cloud Phase II


Average prices in BC have increased modestly. Volume of sales, down 60%+ at the worst (2009), has been modestly increasing for six years. MOI continues to drop, which will keep price gains low for a few years. Shop hard, there are some good values left.

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N B E A V E R C R E E K $ 0 0 0 N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N B C

BEAVER CREEK PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Long term price trend (yellow)

15


Average prices were off 40% from peak. Condo prices have increased slowly for several years. Volume fell -80% from 2005 to 2009, then picked up, and is declining slightly again. Inventory is remains lowest in this subarea of Eagle County. It’s a seller’s market at entry level and first-trade up prices. It’s a buyers market at higher price points. 2018 saw nice double-digit appreciation.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N E A S T V A I L $ 0 0 0N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N

E A S T V A I L

EAST VAIL PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS


$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

16


Lionshead is driven by condo sales. Average 2009 price was off -62% from the peak. 2014 had one huge home sale that drove up the average. Condo prices have been up for the past three years. With 10.4 MOI, it’s a slight buyer’s market here; although prices are increasing. Launch of “Lion” development has added a LOT of condo inventory.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N L I O N S H E A D $ 0 0 0N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N

L I O N S H E A D

LIONSHEAD PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Arrabelle, Ritz Carlton

Arrabelle Ritz Carlton

17

The Lion Development


Average price dropped -59% from the 2008 peak. Prices have been somewhat erratic, trending up, for seven years. Sales volume has also been erratic. It’s still a buyer’s market with MOI at 16.2, but discounts are dropping a bit to an average of 5%.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N V A I L V I L L A G E $ 0 0 0N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N V A I L

V I L L A G E

VAIL VILLAGE PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

18




3. SUMMIT (DILLON, FRISCO, KEYSTONE, BRECKENRIDGE, COPPER, SILVERTHORNE)


5. STEAMBOAT


QUESTIONS?




19



Summary of conditions from a seller’s point of view. Summit is past the bottom in all submarkets. Prices are up 7% to 30%, with an average of 12% appreciation. MOI is relatively low, but sales are down across the board.

Analysis for Jan 2017 – Dec 2017 vs Jan 2018 – Dec 2018

Market Price Units Sold MOI Observations

Breck $947K to $1M+7%

706 to 632-10%

2.8 Prices were stable after two years of big gains. Inventory fell a lot in 2012-17. It’s now a seller’s market. Unit volumes grew in ‘12 and ’13 and really grew in summer 2015-17. As predicted, prices saw a modest increase in 2018.

Copper $502K to $624K+24%

107 to 82-23%

4.0 While MOI has increased in the past 12 months, it’s still a sellers’ market (barely)! Prices stable in ’14-’16, then big growth in ‘17. Change in unit sales and MOI are holding steady while prices have had great appreciation this year!

Dillon $426K to $555K+30%

203 to 173-15%

1.9 Excellent reductions in inventory for six years. A very strong seller’s market. Very strong ’15-’16 price gains, moderated in ‘17. Super low inventory. The sub market with the greatest growth throughout the year!

Frisco $662K to $791K+19%

160 to 159-1%

1.7 Prices were stable in ’14 and increased a lot in 2015, and 2016. MOI continues to drop and prices continue to see double-digit gains. Great time to be a seller!

Keystone $567K to $644K+14%

336 to 324-4%

1.9 As expected, 2014 was the price floor, and prices were up a lot in 2015. +5% more in ’16, then, boom, +23% in ’17. While MOI is decreasing as it remains a sellers’ market! Big volume increases in ’13, ’14 ’15 and ’16, moderate through 2018.

Silverthorne

$629K to $678K+8%

425 to 345-19%

3.2 Inventory still low, but had a recent drop in unit sales. Prices +4% in ’15, +10% in ’16, +13% in ’17, ending at 8% in 2018. Best deals were in ’13, but don’t let buyers miss out on appreciation in this market!

Summit Total

$709K to $791K+12%

1,715 to 1,937-12%

2.6 Further declines in inventory continue to drive price gains. Inventory decreased a bit in the past 12 months; it’s still a sellers’ market! Sellers got firmer on prices in ’15 (+9%) and ‘16 (+7%). We’ve ended 2018 with a 12% gain overall.

Worse for sellers

Better for sellers

SUMMIT COUNTY : SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS

Note: Includes Breck, Copper, Dillon, Frisco, Keystone, Wildernest. Does NOT include Grand County, Park County, Leadville. Data includes both attached and detached properties.Data Source: Summit County MLS; YCRE analysis

20


The average price in Summit County has gone up dramatically in the last twenty years. Prices dropped 18%, on average, between the 2009 and 2013 (vs. -25% in Denver in that time period). By 2016 the market regained all of its recession price losses. Recent price growth appears to be in line with the 25 year trend line.

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Average Annual Appreciation including market correction = 6.9% / yr. Denver = 5.7% / yr.

AVERAGE PROPERTY PR ICE IN SUMMIT COUNTY

SUMMIT COUNTY PRICE TRENDS

Data Source: Summit County MLS; YCRE analysis

21


0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Sales volume in 2010 was off 63% from the peak sales volume year of 2006 to 2009. Sales volume bottomed out in 2009 and began climbing. Volume count has been relatively stable since 2016. In that same time period attached homes have seen significant growth.

-63%

NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD IN SUMMIT COUNTY

SUMMIT COUNTY VOLUME TRENDS


22


Three leading indicators can help to see the future direction of the market. All three have been improving for several years, and as such the market continued to improve (from the seller point of view) in 2018. The shift from a buyers’ market to a seller’s market began in 2015.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

180

5

10

15

20

25

30

4Q

10

2Q

11

3Q

12

1Q13

4Q

13

1Q15

4Q

15

1Q17

4Q

17

2Q

18

4Q

18

SUMMIT COUNTY DOM, DISCOUNT AND MOI TRENDS

A V E R A G E M O I( M O N T H S O F I N V E N T O R Y )

A V E R A G E D O M ( D A Y S O N M A R K E T )

A V E R A G E D I S C O U N T

Seller’s Market

Buyer’s MarketAbove the line:Homes sell at a discount to ask price

Below the line:Homes sell at a premium to ask price


23


Average prices dropped -24% from the peak. The average prices have been on the rise since 2014. Prices have surpassed their pre-recession values. While the submarket sales volume is slowly declining, that of attached units is seeing a lot of growth.

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N B R E C K E N R I D G E $ 0 0 0 # O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N B R E C K E N R I D G E

BRECKENRIDGE PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

Several new development sold, temporarily increasing sales volume


24


Prices have been stable 2012-14. The small price drop in ‘15 and ‘18 was driven by the mix of what was sold. Prices are past the bottom of 2012, and finally passed their recent peak from 2010! Attached units make up most of this sub-market.

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N C O P P E R $ 0 0 0 N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N C O P P E R

COPPER PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

Several new development sold, temporarily increasing sales volume


25

Several new development sold, temporarily increasing sales price


Average prices have increasing modestly for several years. 2018 is already seeing all-time highs. Sales volume was steadily improving from 2009 to 2016, and has since slowly declined. Price appreciation sky-rocketed over the past 12 months!

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N D I L L O N $ 0 0 0 N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N D I L L O N

DILLON PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325


26


$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A V E R A G E P R I C E I N F R I S C O $ 0 0 0 N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N F R I S C O

FRISCO PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

Average prices increased for the overall market and for condos since 2013. 2018 continued pushing the all-time highs. Sales volume increased in 2015-16. It’s down a little lately due to lack of inventory – there are plenty of buyers. This year’s price increases, like most of Summit County, are due to low inventory.


27


A V E R A G E P R I C E I N K E Y S T O N E $ 0 0 0

No end in sight for the large price increases that began in 2014. Sales volume added another year of recovery, especially strong for attached homes. Prices should continue to increase due to lack of inventory. New development has finally started again in Keystone. Around 30 units will be delivered this year. With overall sales over 300 units per year, this should not negatively impact overall prices.

N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N K E Y S T O N E

KEYSTONE PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Several new development sold, temporarily increasing sales volume


28

Several new development sold, temporarily increasing sales price


Average prices have been increasing for several years, for attached and detached homes alike. Sales volume had a huge leap for condos/townhomes. Overall, the average sales price has passed pre-recession levels, while unit sales volume is nearly there. The delivery of the Summit Sky Ranch project helped push up prices.

A V G . P R I C E O F A P R O P E R T Y I N

S I L V E R T H O R N E

# O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D I N

S I L V E R T H O R N E

SILVERTHORNE PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


29

Several new development sold, temporarily increasing sales price (Summit Sky Ranch)





4. GRAND (GRANBY, GRAND LAKE, FRASER, WINTER PARK)

5. STEAMBOAT


TODAY’S DISCUSSION

QUESTIONS?




30



Note: Includes Granby, Winter Park, Grand Lake. Includes both ASF and DSF.

GRAND COUNTY SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS

Grand County is well past the bottom in all sub-markets. While most owners have experienced much appreciation already, it’s not too late for buyers to get in the game! Planned development in the Mary Jane area is likely to power continued gains.Analysis for Jan 2017 – Dec 2017 vs Jan 2018 – Dec 2018


Fraser $476k to $521k+10%

253 to 303+20%

1.2 Fraser, once considered along with Winter Park, has created its own market. It’s a hot market with double-digit appreciation, a 20% increase in sales volume, and the lowest MOI in Grand County!

Granby $363k to $372k+3%

208 to 236+13%

3.3 Prices declined a little in ‘14 and ’15; we saw a very moderate increase in 2018. Though Granby has the highest MOI in Summit, it’s still a seller’s market.

Grand Lake

$392K to $476K+21%

135 to 152+13%

2.3 Prices generally up for several years, with huge appreciation over the past 12 months. Unit sales down in ‘15 and rebounded in ‘16. MOI has dropped and the market continues to be in the sellers’ favor.

Winter Park

$413K to $518K+25%

212 to 25018%

2.0 Declines in inventory enabled prices to take off in ’15, ’16 and ‘17. Lots more demand recently than before. We’ve seen three consecutive years of double-digit appreciation! Buyers may have missed the post-recession best buy deals, but don’t let these great years of appreciation pass you by.

Total Market

$416K to $485K+17%

808 to 985+22%

2.2 Fraser and Winter Park together carry the market, and Granby is contributing its fair share to the growth as well. Condos, as we’re seeing all over Colorado, are in high demand with low inventory and climbing prices. MOI is down all around, so Grand County continues to be a strong seller’s market.

Data Source: Flex MLS; YCRE analysis

Worse for sellers

Better for sellers

31


The average price in Grand County grew about 4x in the last twenty years. Prices dropped 40%, on average, between the 2008 and 2011 (versus -25% in Denver metro). Overall, Grand County has fully recovered from the recession. Homes and condos are seeing very similar recovery patterns. It is still a good time to buy. Each community is in a different stage of recovery. The average annual price appreciation is 6.2% / year, just about the same as homes in Denver.

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Condo

Homes

Total Market

Linear (Total Market)

AVERAGE PROPERTY PR ICE IN GRAND COUNTY

GRAND COUNTY PRICE TRENDS


32

Homes

Long term average

Total market

Condos


Grand County Sales volume in 2009 was off 50% from the peak sales volume year of 2006. Sale volumes have increased ever since. Increasing sales have burned off the inventory, which has given a good platform for price increases. Volume growth is higher than Denver, probably since Grand County is so much cheaper than other resort markets. Low inventories now put the negotiation advantage with the seller.

NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD IN GRAND COUNTY

GRAND COUNTY VOLUME TRENDS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000Condo

Homes

Total

Linear (Total)


33

Homes

Long term average

Total market

Condos


DOM are declining and discounts are getting smaller. These leading indicators point to a continued improvement in market conditions (in the favor of the seller).

AVERAGE DOM (DAYS ON MARKET) AVERAGE D ISCOUNT

GRAND COUNTY DOM AND DISCOUNT TRENDS

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%


34


In 2018, prices for both condos and homes just passed the peak from 2007. Condo sales have been steadily increasing since the recession, and homes have been on an overall upward trend as well. Fraser currently has the lowest inventory in the county, with only 1.2 MOI!

FRASER PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

A V E R A G E P R I C E N U M B E R S O L D

$50

$150

$250

$350

$450

$550

$650

$750

$850

0

50

100

150

200

250


35


The prices for condos and homes rebounded in 2012-17. Homes have fully recovered; condos remain below the market peak. Unit sales volume also improved dramatically in 2012-17. Inventory has been dropping for several years. The balance changed from buyers to sellers market in 2015. 2018 continued to see more price gains due to low inventory.

GRANBY PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

M O N T H S O F I N V E N T O R YA V E R A G E P R I C E N U M B E R S O L D

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


36


The prices for home increased modestly in 2014-17, and in 2018 we passed the market’s peak from 2007! Unit sales volume has rebounded after 2016. Inventory has been declining as a result! This has improved prices.

(Data displayed for homes only, not condos/townhomes.)

GRAND LAKE PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90



37


The prices for condos were flat at the bottom for several years. They finally increased in 2013-17. 2018 saw incredible appreciation. Home prices have seen a similar spike, well surpassing the prior peak of 2007. Inventory continues to decline. 2018 finished as a strong seller’s market – especially in condos!

WINTER PARK PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

20

18

20

16

20

14

20

12

20

10

20

08

20

06

20

04

20

02

20

00

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20

17

20

15

20

13

20

11

20

09

20

07

20

05

20

03

20

01

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

18

20

16

20

14

20

12

20

10

20

08

20

06

20

04

20

02

20

00



38






5. STEAMBOAT


QUESTIONS?




39



Source: RE Colorado (SSBR); YCRE analysis.

STEAMBOAT : SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS

Steamboat is past the bottom in most sub-markets. Buyers still have time to get prices below peak prices. Don’t

wait long if you want something “special.” Buyers should not expect “deals” as in 2011-15.

Analysis for Jan 2017 – Dec 2017 vs Jan 2018 – Dec 2018


Homes $990k to $1.18M+19%

220 to 2210%

7.4 Home prices were stable in 2017. Despite the MOI, prices saw a nearly 20% increase!

Condos $436 to $390-11%

350 to 328-6%

7.1 Condo pricing was flat in 2015 and 2016, then up in ‘17. Unit sales grew in ‘15, ‘16, and ‘17. Condos are performing the least well in Steamboat versus the other resort counties.

TownHomes

$656 to $696+6%

168 to 182+8%

4.2 Inventory remains relatively low for TH. Unit sales rose a bit, and prices strengthened.

Summary $651k to $706k+8%

738 to 731-1%

6.5 Overall, inventory levels are between that of Eagle and Summit Counties. Prices up +3% in 2015 and +7% in 2016 and +5 in 2017. Overall, average prices are up by a healthy 8%.

Note: DOES include Condo, DSF, duplex/townhouse. “City”: Steamboat. Does NOT include time share, mobile homes, mixed use or commercial. Data for resort cities in Routt County only.

Worse for sellers

Better for sellers

40


The average price in the Steamboat area dropped significantly from the peak (2008) to the bottom (2013). Prices have steadily been increasing since 2013.

Unit sales dropped 74% from the peak (2007) to the bottom (2009). Volume has recovered dramatically since the downturn, with attached homes leading the way in 2018.

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,300,000

$1,400,000

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

A V E R A G E P R O P E R T Y P R I C E I N S T E A M B O A T N U M B E R O F P R O P E R T I E S S O L D

STEAMBOAT PRICE AND VOLUME TRENDS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Data Source: RE Colorado; YCRE analysis

41


DOM: It’s taken about 200 days to get a property UC for the past decade. DOM has been plummeting since 2016. Discounts are consistent for all property types. Discounts were around 1% before the crash, -9% in 2010 at the worst of the market, and since have recovered and are hovering around -2.5%.

A V E R A G E D O M I N S T E A M B O A T A V E R A G E D I S C O U N T I N S T E A M B O A T

STEAMBOAT DOM AND DISCOUNT TRENDS

75

125

175

225

275

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Data Source: RE Colorado; YCRE analysis

42





4. GRAND (FRASER, GRANBY, GRAND LAKE, WINTER PARK)

5. STEAMBOAT


QUESTIONS?




43



A condo in the mountains is more affordable than you might think. You’ll likely make around 12-20% on your investment per year (with appreciation). Slightly more expensive options are nicer and have better returns. These estimates assume you use the unit 20-25 nights a year and rent 100 +/- nights (with a property manager handling ALL details).

Based on actual client experiences and current market prices. Your results may vary.

Note: this is a conservative estimate with 4% appreciation; the 20 year average is 6.5%.

ECONOMICS OF RENTING A UNIT

Summit County - Cost of ownership analysisKeystone One Bedroom

new const. Breckenridge Studio

condotelKeystone Three Bedroom

New Const.Breckenridge Mountain

ThunderSize (bedrooms) 1 bed/1bath 0 bed/1bath 3 bed/3 bath 3 bed/3 bathSquare Feet 639 427 1,587 1,339

Locationin resort, bus route to

mountainhouse in town walk to slopesin resort, bus route to

mountainhouse Base of gondola in town

Price 399,000 362,500 799,000 1,175,000 Down % 25% 25% 25% 25%

Down $ 99,750 90,625 199,750 293,750

Rate 4.40% 4.40% 4.40% 4.40%P+I (30 year) 1,499 1,361 3,001 4,413 Tax + Ins (est'd) 175 165 265 400 PITI (est'd) 1,674 1,526 3,266 4,813 HOA/mo 420 508 1,045 1,237

Total cost /mo 2,094 2,034 4,311 6,050 Total cost/yr 25,122.32 24,413.32 54,024 64,812

Interest paid 13,167 11,963 26,367 38,775 Mortgage bal paid off 4,815 4,375 9,643 14,180

Net rental after mgmt fees 20,000 20,000 39,000 50,000 Cash subsididy required (5,122) (4,413) (15,024) (14,812) Cash per day (14.03) (12.09) (41.16) (40.58)

Average net rent / day 150 150 575 600 Owner use days 20 20 20 20 Paid rental days 130 130 130 130

Paid use % 87% 87% 87% 87%

Marginal tax rate 35% 35% 35% 35%Tax write off 6,160 6,078 12,766 17,720

Annual appreciation est % 4% 4% 4% 4%Annual appreciation est $ 11,400 13,596 37,560 36,700

Total economic impact yr 12,437 15,261 35,302 39,608 Total return on investment 12.5% 16.8% 17.7% 13.5%

44

Source: Summit MLS, Vail MLS, interviews with owners and property managers; YCRE analysis. Numbers are net of property management fees.

Sheet1

Summit County - Cost of ownership analysis

Keystone One Bedroom new const. Breckenridge Studio condotelKeystone Three Bedroom New Const.Breckenridge Mountain Thunder

Size (bedrooms)1 bed/1bath0 bed/1bath3 bed/3 bath3 bed/3 bath

Square Feet6394271,5871,339

Locationin resort, bus route to mountainhousein town walk to slopesin resort, bus route to mountainhouseBase of gondola in town

Price399,000362,500799,0001,175,000

Down %25%25%25%25%

Down $99,75090,625199,750293,750

Rate4.40%4.40%4.40%4.40%

P+I (30 year)1,4991,3613,0014,413

Tax + Ins (est'd)175165265400

PITI (est'd)1,6741,5263,2664,813

HOA/mo4205081,0451,237

Total cost /mo2,0942,0344,3116,050

Total cost/yr25,122.3224,413.3254,02464,812

Interest paid13,16711,96326,36738,775

Mortgage bal paid off4,8154,3759,64314,180

Net rental after mgmt fees20,00020,00039,00050,000

Cash subsididy required(5,122)(4,413)(15,024)(14,812)

Cash per day(14.03)(12.09)(41.16)(40.58)

Average net rent / day150150575600

Owner use days20202020

Paid rental days130130130130

Paid use %87%87%87%87%

Marginal tax rate35%35%35%35%

Tax write off6,1606,07812,76617,720

Annual appreciation est %4%4%4%4%

Annual appreciation est $11,40013,59637,56036,700

Total economic impact yr12,43715,26135,30239,608

Total return on investment12.5%16.8%17.7%13.5%


PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY

45

Ellie Reimer 720.474.2822

[email protected]’s Premier Name in

Property Management

Greg Parham303.558.6623

[email protected]

Joe Massey303.809.7769

[email protected] www.castlecookemortgage.com

Erynn DostalerSales Representative

720.577.1366 [email protected]

www.arizonatile.com

Cathy SchnellMarketing Professional

[email protected]

Stationery Products, Promotional Items, Mailing Items and more!

mailto:[email protected]



46



47

Slide Number 1Who is Your castle real estate?Our agentsSlide Number 4How the markets compareSlide Number 6Historic Market ComparisonToday’s discussionEagle county: Summary of market conditionsEagle county price and volume trendsEagle county dom and discount trendsArrowhead price and volume trendsAvon price and volume trendsBachelor Gulch price and volume trendsBeaver Creek price and volume trendsEast Vail price and volume trendsLionshead price and volume trendsVail Village price and volume trendsSlide Number 19Summit County: Summary of market conditionssummit county price trendssummit county Volume trendssummit county dom, discount and moi trendsBreckenridge price and volume trendsCopper price and volume trendsDillon price and volume trendsFrisco price and volume trendsKeystone price and volume trendsSilverthorne price and volume trendsToday’s DiscussionGrand county Summary of market conditionsGrand county price trendsGrand county volume trendsGrand county DOM and Discount trendsfraser price and volume trendsGranby price and volume trendsGrand lake price and volume trendsWinter park price and volume trendsSlide Number 39Steamboat: Summary of market conditionsSteamboat price and volume trendsSteamboat dom and discount trendsSlide Number 43Economics of renting a unitPage left blank intentionallyPage left blank intentionallyPage left blank intentionallySlide Number 48

th quarter 2018 mountain...

Documents