thackray newsletter...2020/08/08  · thackray newsletter — know your buy & sells a month in...

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Thackray Newsletter — Know Your Buy & Sells a Month in Advance — Published the 10th Calendar Day of Every Month Volume 14, Number 8, August 2020 Written by Brooke Thackray alphaMountain Investments - alphamountain.com S&P 500 Technical Status The S&P 500 has recently rallied close to an all-time high, despite the economy being in a recession. The stock market has rallied above its up trend channel that was established in 2018. Volume for the S&P 500 increased into June 8 as the stock market rallied after a strong NFP report. Since June 8, volume has been falling as the S&P 500 has rallied, indicating a rally lacking conviction. The NYSE index, a much broader and more represen- tative index of the stock market has just managed to reach its June 8 high (second graph panel). One of the major dierences between the S&P 500 and NYSE is that the NYSE index does not include many of the high ying stocks that have pushed up the S&P 500. Given that the S&P 500 is becoming overbought, above its up trend channel, lacks volume conviction in its cur- rent rally and we are currently in the worst seasonal period for the stock market (August and September), it would not be surprising to see the rally start to fade. It is important to note that the Federal Reserve has taken action and made announcements in previous periods lead- ing up to elections, but they are typically not major an- nouncements. Over the last eleven years the Federal Reserve has made fairly large market moving announcements at their Jack- son Hole Wyoming annual symposium at the end of Au- gust. It is possible that they might make a policy statement such as yield curve control or ination rate targeting, but once we slip into September, the odds of large Federal Reserve actions decreases substantially. For the rst time in forty years the Federal Reserve is not holding its annual symposium in Jackson Hole due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The bank will instead hold a virtual meeting on August 27-28. Despite my criticism of the Federal Reserve policies, Powell has been very professional in his comments re- garding Trump trying to “bully” him into action. Never- theless, I do not think that Powell is going to go out of his way to support Trump before the election. Not going to happen. Market Update Federal Reserve “Unocial” Blackout Period Is About to Start! As the US Presidential election approaches, the Federal Reserve has traditionally abstained from any large policy decisions, for fear that such actions might be construed as political interference. Black Square

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Page 1: Thackray Newsletter...2020/08/08  · Thackray Newsletter — Know Your Buy & Sells a Month in Advance — Published the 10th Calendar Day of Every Month Volume 14, Number 8, August

Thackray Newsletter— Know Your Buy & Sells a Month in Advance —

Published the 10th Calendar Day of Every MonthVolume 14, Number 8, August 2020 Written by Brooke Thackray

alphaMountain Investments - alphamountain.com

S&P 500 Technical StatusThe S&P 500 has recently rallied close to an all-time high, despite the economy being in a recession. The stock market has rallied above its up trend channel that was established in 2018.

Volume for the S&P 500 increased into June 8 as the stock market rallied after a strong NFP report. Since June 8, volume has been falling as the S&P 500 has rallied, indicating a rally lacking conviction.

The NYSE index, a much broader and more represen-tative index of the stock market has just managed to reach its June 8 high (second graph panel). One of the major diff erences between the S&P 500 and NYSE is that the NYSE index does not include many of the high fl ying stocks that have pushed up the S&P 500.

Given that the S&P 500 is becoming overbought, above its up trend channel, lacks volume conviction in its cur-rent rally and we are currently in the worst seasonal period for the stock market (August and September), it would not be surprising to see the rally start to fade.

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve has taken action and made announcements in previous periods lead-ing up to elections, but they are typically not major an-nouncements.

Over the last eleven years the Federal Reserve has made fairly large market moving announcements at their Jack-son Hole Wyoming annual symposium at the end of Au-gust. It is possible that they might make a policy statement such as yield curve control or infl ation rate targeting, but once we slip into September, the odds of large Federal Reserve actions decreases substantially.

For the fi rst time in forty years the Federal Reserve is not holding its annual symposium in Jackson Hole due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The bank will instead hold a virtual meeting on August 27-28.

Despite my criticism of the Federal Reserve policies, Powell has been very professional in his comments re-garding Trump trying to “bully” him into action. Never-theless, I do not think that Powell is going to go out of his way to support Trump before the election. Not going to happen.

Market Update

Federal Reserve “Unoffi cial” Blackout Period Is About to Start!As the US Presidential election approaches, the Federal Reserve has traditionally abstained from any large policy decisions, for fear that such actions might be construed as political interference.

Black Square

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Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC : TSX)Portfolio Exposure as of July 31, 2020

Symbol

Holdings % of NAV

Canadian Dollar Exposed AssetsBonds

HBB Horizons CDN Select Universe Bond ETF 5.4%HFR Horizons Active Ultra-Short Term Investment Grade Bond ETF 4.1%

CommoditiesHUG Horizons Gold ETF 8.0%

United States Dollar Exposed AssetsBonds

HTB Horizons US 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 21.4%

EquitiesXLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund 10.7%XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund 10.5%GDX Vaneck Gold Miners ETF 5.2%HXS Horizons S&P 500® Index ETF 5.0%IBB iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF 3.5%IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF -5.2%

US Dollar Forwards (August 2020) - Currency Hedge ** 0.3%

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Margin & Other 31.1%

Total ( NAV $239,352,981) 100.0%** Refl ects gain / loss on currency hedge (Notional exposure equals 58.1% of current NAV)

The objective of HAC is long-term capital appreciation in all market cycles by tactically allocating its exposure amongst equities, fi xed income, commodities and currencies during periods that have historically demonstrated sea-sonal trends. The Thackray Market Letter is for educational purposes and is meant to demonstrate the advantages of seasonal investing by describing many of the trades and strategies in HAC.

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So, why is the “unoffi cial” blackout period being men-tioned? Simply, investors have been pushing stocks high-er largely based upon stimulative Federal Reserve policy implementation.

The Federal Reserve balance sheet peaked on June 10, two days after a lot of stock market indexes peaked. June 8 is an important date for the stock market.

Most sectors of the stock market have failed to rally past their June 8 high. The run-up in the stock market up to June 8 was on large volume and since the volume has tapered off . The S&P 500 has rallied past its June 8 high, but this has been mainly the result of a handful of stocks in the index.

The point is that currently Federal Reserve actions are not supportive of pushing the stock market higher at this time.

It is possible that government fi scal policy can push the stock market higher. Currently, the Treasury has over 1.7 trillion dollars in its TGA account with the Federal Re-serve. If it were to start spending this money it would be expected to create a positive infl uence on stock prices. However, fi scal spending generally has a lag eff ect on the economy. Transfer payments to individuals and compa-nies would provide cash to help the economy in a much shorter term. Overall, the Treasury spending has less of an infl uence on the stock market in the short-term compared to Federal Reserve actions.

Seasonally, on average, over the long-term, Au-gust and September are the two worst contiguous months of the year.

Since 1950 to 2019 the S&P 500 has produced an average loss of 0.5% from August 1 to September 30. The largest gain was 12.4%. The largest loss was 19.9%. Over the last seventy years, a little over half of the time the S&P 500 has been positive. The interesting phenomenon is that the losses tend to be much larger than gains. For ex-ample, the S&P 500 has only risen 10 to 15% , two times, versus losses of 10 to 15%, six times. In August through to September the frequency of gains is higher than losses, but the size of losses are bigger than the gains. Overall, August to September is not a strong seasonal period to maintain excessive risk.

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US Presidential Election Just Around the Corner - Not Good Seasonally For The Stock Market!Typically in August, September and October, the news cycle is heavily focused on who might be the next Presi-dent and the implications for the economy and stock mar-ket. So far this year, the coverage has been relatively scant because of the Covid-19 pandemic. That will change in the near future, especially now that Biden has announced his VP candidate.

On average, the stock market tends to perform poorly heading into the election, starting in August and turning down into September and October. Why does this hap-pen? It is simple, investors do not like uncertainty. They prefer to sit on the sidelines and wait until there is better clarity into the future. Sure, there will be a lot of articles written about how Trump or Biden will be better for the economy. Take your pick, it does not matter. It is the un-certainty leading up to the election date that matters.

The above graph shows average of all years from 1950 to 2016 (black line), the average election year (red line) and the last election year (gold line - 2016). On average, the stock market starts to fade in mid-August and falls into late October or early November.

Maybe the decline happens a bit later this year, but overall the seasonal trend in election years is negative at this time of the year.

What the HAC? Towards the end of June, HAC increased its broad stock market exposure in anticipation of the stock marked fol-lowing its seasonal trend of performing well from late June into mid-July ahead of the second quarter earnings season. In mid-July, HAC reduced its broad stock market equity position. In July, HAC increased its US govern-ment holdings, gold bullion and gold miners.

Seasonal Opportunities

GoldGold has a strong seasonal period from July 12 to Octo-ber 9

Gold is currently in its seasonal period. Nevertheless, af-ter a strong run, it is possible that gold got ahead of itself. In the graph below, there is a clear break above the trad-ing channel in July. On Tuesday August 11, interest rates increased, including real yields and gold dropped sharply.

Gold is still in an up trend and will not be considered to have broken major support until it breaks below $1700.

My Call: Gold will probably be positive over the next month and a half.

Gold MinersGold miners have a strong seasonal period from July 27 to September 25

Gold miners have performed well from early June until just recently. On Tuesday August 11, gold miners cor-rected sharply as both gold and the broad stock market corrected.

The graph below illustrates the relative performance of gold miners compared to gold bullion and the S&P 500. Gold miners tend to perform well when both the stock market and gold bullion are rallying. I discussed this in my July newsletter (https://alphamountain.com/wp-con-tent/uploads/2020/07/Thackray-Newsletter-2020-07-Ju-ly.pdf).

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Gold miners are a torque play on gold bullion and the stock market and in sharp corrections in the stock market, gold miners can also correct sharply.

My Call: Gold miners will probably be volatile over the next month, but are expected to outperform the S&P 500, if the S&P 500 does not correct sharply.

SilverSilver can perform well alongside gold. Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal, and as a result tends to perform well when gold is increasing and base metals are performing well. Recently, this has been the scenario as gold and base metals have outperformed the S&P 500.

Silver is somewhat of a torque play on gold. The returns can be larger, but so can the losses.

There is a good case for silver to perform well over the long-term, but in the short-term, there could be some vol-atility. Base metals tend to perform poorly in the month of September. If the rate of change in global growth slows, base metals could be hit hard in their weak seasonal pe-riod, making gold a more attractive seasonal investment than silver.

BiotechThe biotech sector has a strong seasonal period from June 23 to September 13

The biotech sector typically has a strong July compared to the S&P 500. This year, the sector was positive in July but underperformed the S&P 500.

When a sector underperforms in its strong seasonal pe-riod, particularly in its seasonal sweet spot it is not a good sign and often indicates further weakness ahead. Sure, the sector could have a technical bounce, but the odds do not favor a strong outperforming sector.

After outperforming since January into June, the biotech sector has pulled back. There is a lot of vaccine news and noise in the media, but the sector is not responding posi-tively.

So, what is happening with the biotech sector? It is pos-sible that the vaccine hype is largely built into the sector. With companies starting phase three trials it is going to

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be a while before we hear any new defi nitive news on the eff ectiveness of the potential vaccines. Despite what Trump says, a vaccine could be more of a 2021 phenom-enon. I would not be surprised to see Trump try and an-nounce some positive vaccine news before the election in November to create good will in the electorate.

Investors are starting to realize that even if a vaccine is proclaimed to be acceptable, it is not a binary event. Ac-cording to Dr. Fauci, the vaccines may only be partially eff ective and require multiple shots.

My Call: The biotech sector will probably perform at market over the next month, but could show increasing volatility as the US election approaches.

Health CareThe health care sector has a strong seasonal period from May 1 to August 2. After a very brief weak period at the beginning of August, the health care sector tends to per-form well into October.

The health care sector has been performing at market since late June. More recently, the sector has turned lower relative to the S&P 500 as the sector has reached a high on an absolute basis. It is possible that this sector could start to stall as the US Presidential election looms.

My Call: The health care sector will probably perform at market or slightly above market over the next two months.

Natural GasNatural gas a historical seasonal period from September 5 to December 21

On BNNBloomberg Market Call on August 5, I discuss the next seasonal opportunity for Natural Gas.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/brooke-thack-ray-discusses-the-horizons-natural-gas-etf~2008190

A caller to the BNNBloomberg show, Dan, essentially asked if it was too late to enter into the natural gas trade. He noted that natural gas had become overbought ahead of its seasonal period. Typically, it is best to consider an early entry into a seasonal sector one month early if the sector is oversold and starting to bounce from an oversold position.

Unfortunately, the recent natural gas bounce occurred just outside of pre-seasonal buy window. Typically, when a security has become overbought before its seasonal date, it is often best to wait until the seasonal date for another entry point.

Natural gas could be an interesting seasonal trade this year given its relatively low price with supply constraints.

Technically, natural gas has broken its downtrend and has broken out of a double bottom pattern. Watch for natural gas to test the $2.00 level of support.

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My Call: Natural gas will probably remain fairly stable into the beginning of September, before a move higher, potentially to $3 over the following few months.

Oil - WTIC

After rallying from March 23, since June, West Texas In-termediate has been marginally rising. However, the RSI has been falling at the same time as the price of oil has been rising, creating a divergence, which is not supportive of higher prices.

EnergyThe energy sector has a minor historical seasonal period from July 24 to October 3

The energy sector is currently in a minor seasonal period at this time. The seasonal trade tends to work best if the energy sector has sold off before the start of the minor seasonal period and the stock market is rallying.

This is currently not the situation, as the energy sector has been rallying since March 23. The energy sector may rally at this point, but it does not have a strong seasonal tail wind.

Consumer StaplesThe consumer staples sector has a strong seasonal period from April 23rd to October 27th

The consumer staples sector outperformed from late Feb-ruary to late March, under performed until June and then has been performing at market since.

On a seasonal basis, the consumer staples sector tends to perform well in August through October.

The sector is well poised to perform well in a potentially volatile market over the next few months.

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My Call: The consumer staples sector will probably outperform the S&P 500 until late October.

Consumer DiscretionaryThe consumer discretionary sector is not in its seasonal period at the current time. The sector has been outper-forming since March (largely because of Amazon being approximately one-quarter of the ETF). In July, the con-sumer discretionary sector started to underperform the S&P 500.

If stock market volatility increases, the consumer discre-tionary sector will probably underperform.

IndustrialsThe industrial sector is currently not in its seasonal pe-riod. What is interesting, is that the sector continues to lag the overall market. If investors were expecting the global economy to continue to improve, it would be expected that this sector should outperform. This is currently not happening.

TechnologyThe technology sector is currently not in its historical sea-sonal period. On an absolute basis, the sector is still in an up trend. Also, the sector continues to remain in an up trend relative to the S&P 500. The sector is being driven by a relatively few stocks.

As I have said in the past, when the technology sector starts to underperform the S&P 500, it will be a signal that the overall stock market is in trouble and is susceptible to a major correction.

Currently, the sector remains in an absolute and relative up trend compared to the S&P 500. When the technology sector starts to underperform the S&P 500 and breaks the downtrend line, This will be a strong indication that the market is in trouble.

Why? Investors have been running to the technology sec-tor, mainly the FAANMG stocks when the stock market has started to decline. The big technology companies have become the safe haven stocks for investors. When investors start to abandon technology stocks and the stock market is going down at the same time, this will be a good indication that investors are losing their confi dence in the stock market.

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TransportationThe transportation sector is currently not in its strong sea-sonal period, but the performance of the sector does help to establish economic expectations of the future.

Currently, the transportation sector is outperforming the S&P 500. This is not typical for this time of the year and indicates excessive optimism for the economic recovery. When this sector starts to turn lower, it will indicate that investors are expecting slower economic growth.

FinancialsThe fi nancials sector is currently not in its seasonal pe-riod, but monitoring the sector’s relative performance compared to the S&P 500 helps to establish if economic

growth has “legs” to rally further.

Watch the fi nancial sector’s performance to determine in-vestor risk appetite if interest rates start to increase. Ris-ing interest rates will be bullish for the fi nancial sector because it will increase the bank’s net interest margins.

However, if interest rates start to rise and the fi nancial sector underperforms the S&P 500.....watch out. This will be a signal that investors are expecting a weaker economy ahead. This could be one of the fi rst signs that investors are anticipating weaker growth ahead.

HomebuildersThe homebuilders sector is not in its seasonal period, but I thought I would write a comment on the sector because it illustrates the euphoria in the stock market.

The homebuilders sector strongly outperformed the S&P 500 from March 23, paused its relative performance in June and then reaccelerated in July and August. The home builders sector has reached new highs.

It is not just the companies building homes that have done well, it is also the house prices. On a year-over-year ba-sis house prices have moved up in many markets. There are some major cities with declining house prices as resi-dents are leaving high crime areas to work remotely in the suburbs or more rural locations. Overall, according to the Case Shiller National and Composite Indices, house prices have continued to increase during the Covid-19 pandemic. House prices are at all time highs.

A lot of indebted people are confusing cash fl ow with the ability to pay a mortgage and expenses over the long-term. A lot of homeowners and renters have had some form of forbearance. In the not-so-distant future, mortgages and

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rents are going to have to be paid. Following the home-builders sector will help investors track investor senti-ment. When the homebuilders sector starts to persistently underperform the S&P 500, this will be a good indicator that consumers are starting to reign in their spending.

US Government BondsUS government bonds have a strong seasonal period from May 5 to October 3

US government bonds have been moderately increasing in value and have broken out of their consolidation box.

We are currently in the seasonal sweet spot for US bonds. It is possible that bonds could pull back if the “refl ation trade” takes hold and investors start to expect infl ation rates to increase.

My Call: Government bonds will probably be moder-ately positive over the next two months.

UtilitiesThe utilities sector has a seasonal period that lasts until October 3

On an absolute basis, the utilities sector is forming a bullish ascending triangle. Relative to the S&P 500, the utilities sector has been underperforming. Given that the sector is largely driven by two components, interest sen-sitivity and stock market direction, the best possible sce-nario for this sector is a rising stock market at the same time that interest rates are moving lower.

If the stock market rises at a rapid rate with a falling VIX representing greater investor complacency and interest rates are moving down at the same time (investor risk-on mode), the sector would probably underperform the S&P 500. On the other hand, if interest rates are falling and investors have market anxiety, but the stock market is still able to manage some growth, the utilities sector will probably outperform.

My Call: The utilities sector will probably be moder-ately positive until the beginning of October and out-perform the S&P 500.

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Short Sell Opportunities

Small CapsThe small cap sector tends to underperform the S&P 500 for most of July.

This year, the small cap sector moderately outperformed the S&P 500 as investors shifted to a risk-on mode and showed at increasing preference for value sector stocks. The small cap sector is an interesting sector to watch rela-tive to the broad market in the summer months. If the sec-tor is able to show sustained outperformance relative to the S&P 500, this often indicates that the stock market has more “legs” to rally even in the six-months unfavorable period for stocks.

My Call: The small cap sector will probably underper-form the S&P 500 over the next few months.

Currencies

USDCADThe USD dollar has been falling against world currencies since April. A lot of investors have become very negative on the US dollar and speculative positions against the US dollar have become huge.

The US dollar has fallen in value for several reasons, in-cluding falling US interest rates, excessive money print-ing and investors shifting to a risk-on mode.

The US dollar has become very oversold and a bounce could have ramifi cations across a number of markets, in-cluding bonds, equities and precious metals.

My Call: The USD will probably bounce at this level and outperform world currencies and the Canadian dol-lar over the next two months.

Brooke’s Rant - Powell is Not Thinking...

On July 29, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve was “not thinking about thinking about thinking about raising [interest] rates.” Powell is a smart man. He used repetition to really emphasize his point that interest rates are not go-ing up anytime soon.

There are two important infl uential aspects of central bank policy. First, the actual execution of the policy. Sec-ond, the belief that the policy will be implemented which is supported by the act of jaw-boning. Jaw-boning costs nothing. It is basically a statement of policy of what ex-pected actions should be anticipated in the future. The risk is if central banks do not follow through with their

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“promised plan.” On the other had, if they can convince the masses that they will follow through at any cost, jaw-boning is very eff ective in bullying investors into a desir-able stance.

The classic example of this occurred in 2012 when Draghi stated that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to sup-port the European Union. The statement was Draghi’s “bazooka” that was supposed to be so bold that the market would not challenge his position. At the time, the Euro-pean Union was in trouble, but Draghi managed to con-vince investors to keep piling on risk, as the ECB would have their “back” and take any action necessary to make sure that nothing bad would happen. The irony is that the ECB did not take any signifi cant action over the next two years, and the stock market marched higher. Draghi’s jaw boning policy worked.

I think Powell is trying to create his own “bazooka” with his “Not Thinking” statement. I am not sure if it will have the same eff ect as Draghi’s bazooka. So far, it has only had a nominal eff ect in the markets.

The Federal Reserve is actually thinking, despite what they state. They are planning more and creative ways to keep the money ball rolling. Six months ago, who would have thought that the Federal Reserve would be breaking the law (Federal Reserve Act) and buying non govern-ment agency bonds, as they have done recently by pur-chasing junk bonds.

Despite the Federal Reserve asking the government to play a more active role with fi scal policy, expect the Fed-eral Reserve to step in with more stimulus as the econo-my struggles at some point: perhaps, yield curve control, increased infl ation targets, quantitative easing and who knows maybe negative interest rates and even buying stocks. I am not saying these things are going to happen, but I would not be surprised if the Federal Reserve con-siders implementing these policies, only on a temporary basis of course (LOL).

The Federal Reserve is indirectly helping to pay Tim Cook’s salary

Apple just announced that a second bond issue in 2020 into the market, with the primary purpose of buying back stock. Apple does not need the money - obviously, but with rates so low why not borrow to help jack up the stock price?

Technology companies are notorious for awarding large amounts of compensation to their senior executive through stock options. It helps their senior executives pay less tax. Apple issues stock options to their senior execu-tives, the options are exercised creating stock for their senior executive and thereby increasing the fl oat of the stock available in the market. Apple then buys back the stock in the open market to reduce their fl oat and then the process is repeated.

So how is the Federal Reserve helping to indirectly pay Tim Cook’s salary? The Federal Reserve is buying Apple bonds in the open market through ETF purchases. By in-creasing the demand for Apple bonds, the Federal Reserve is lowering the yield that Apple has to pay out on bond purchases that it really does not need. This encourages Apple to buy back its stock in the open market in order to create more shares for senior executive compensation, including Tim Cook’s compensation.

Apple is not alone in 2020 raising “not needed” money in the markets, as other major tech companies have taken advantage of the low rates in order to fund operations and compensation packages, including Amazon and Google.

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Magic Money Tree (Modern Money Theory) Start-ing to Grow

Stephanie Kelton - Chief Magician

I have ranted about the Magic Money Tree (Modern Mon-etary Theory) in the past. Sorry. But given that the Magic Money Tree is starting to grow with more money printing taking place, I thought I would rant on the subject once again.

To establish my position on MMT, I want to be clear, MMT is a garbage economic philosophy that is absolutely reckless and will have long-term negative consequences.

As MMT is creeping into the system and could accelerate in the future, I also want to state that in the fi rst few years of its implementation, it will be tremendously successful as everyone gets free money to spend. It is only after two or three years of implementation (maybe more) that its negative consequences will weigh on the economy. The reason that I am ranting about MMT again is that it is starting, as the Treasury creates more debt and the Federal Reserve buys the debt in the open market. It seems to be working and this would be expected as any increase in money supply would be expected to provide an ephem-eral boost to the economy. As I said, it is down the road when the pain will be experienced.

It is interesting to note that the Federal Reserve quantita-tive easing programs have been equal to approximately $10,000 per person in the Covid-19 pandemic. The reality of the situation is that individuals have received a fraction of this amount, with companies and banks receiving the rest.

I am not going to go through all of the principles of MMT,

but I encourage everyone to read articles and books that are both pro and con on the subject. There are a lot of well known economists that erroneously support MMT. Basi-cally, MMT is based upon the tenet that a country that fi -nances its debt in its own currency can print unbelievably large amounts of money to support its economy. Hidden in its principles is the belief that printing money creates wealth, which it does not. MMT is essentially a wealth redistribution mechanism that has adverse eff ects on the economy and productivity.

Stephanie Kelton is considered the matriarch of MMT. She was Bernie Sander’s economic advisor in the 2016 election. She often speaks at events supporting MMT and she has written a book on the subject matter “the Defi cit Myth.” I have tried to read her book, but was unable to fi nish it as I disagreed so with so much of what she had to say.

I believe that if the Democrats get into power as the re-sult of the next Presidential election, money printing will increase. I also believe that if the Republicans get into power, money printing will also increase. No political statements here...I am just stating that either government will create more debt.

As I am writing this rant, I cannot help but think of a worse situation than if the US election were to somehow create a scenario where Stephanie Kelton were to become the chairperson of the Federal Reserve in 2022, after Powell’s term expires. The level of long-term destruction to the economy would be immense.

I have a quick tongue-in-cheek question? If money print-ing has no consequence, why not just print enough money to pay everyone’s taxes?

Tesla - Trillion Dollar Strategy

On Tuesday August 12, Tesla announced that they were going to do a stock split of 5 to 1. On Wednesday, the stock on “no-news,” rallied over 13%. Yup. On nothing. Splitting a stock does not increase its value. There is all sorts of research and common sense that tells us that split-

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ting a stock does not increase its value.

Somehow, Tesla investors think that this situation is dif-ferent.

So I have fi gured it out. Tesla should split its stock every-day. Think about it, Tesla could be worth a trillion dollars very quickly, no extra car sales needed!