thailand power development plan - world...
TRANSCRIPT
ByMr. Prutichai ChonglertvanichkulMr. Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul
Assistant Governor - PlanningElectricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)
Presented to
High Level Forum on Lao-Thai Partnership in Sustainable Hydropower Development
7 September 2007
Shangri-La Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand
Thailand Power Development Plan Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)(PDP 2007)
ContentsContents
Introduction
Present Status of Thailand Power System
Assumptions of PDP 2007
Thailand Power Development Plan
Thailand – Lao PDR Collaboration
Conclusion
IntroductionIntroduction
What is a Power Development Plan?What is a Power Development Plan?
กําลงัผลติสํารองกําลงัผลติติดตั้ง
(ปจจุบนั)2,7115.203 MW
กําลังผลิต (MW)
รฟ.ใหม
20XX 20XX 20XX 20XX ป
ความตองก
ารไฟฟา
รฟ.ใหม
รฟ.ใหม
รฟ.ใหม
กําลงัผลติสํารองกําลงัผลติติดตั้ง
(ปจจุบนั)2,7115.203 MW
กําลังผลิต (MW)
รฟ.ใหม
20XX 20XX 20XX 20XX ป
ความตองก
ารไฟฟา
รฟ.ใหม
รฟ.ใหม
รฟ.ใหม
An optimum plan to indicate new power plants with appropriate sizes and types at appropriate time to serve the increasing demand in the next 10-15 years adequately.
Objectives of Power Development PlansObjectives of Power Development Plans
• Optimum Plan
• System Reliability and Quality
• Environmental Impact
Key Inputs for Developing PDPKey Inputs for Developing PDP
Existing System InformationLong Term Power Demand ForecastFuel PricesSchedules of Power Plant RetirementCandidate Power PlantsNational Energy PolicyPlanning Criteria
Present Status of Present Status of Thailand Power SystemThailand Power System
Installed Capacity Installed Capacity –– by Power Plant Typesby Power Plant Types
28,522.528,522.5 MW22,586.1 MW
Combined Cycle 13,539.9 MW
47.5 %
Hydro3,764.2 MW
13.2 %
Thermal9,666.6 MW
33.9 %
EGAT-TNB300 MW
1.1 %
Gas Turbine and Diesel972.4 MW
3.4 %
Renewable Energy279.3 MW
1.0 %
Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007)Peak Demand (24 April 2007)
EGAT15,794.6 MW
55 %
IPPs, SPPs, VSPPs, Lao PDR, and Malaysia
12,727.9 MW
45%
Installed Capacity Installed Capacity –– byby ProducersProducers
Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007)Peak Demand (24 April 2007)
28,522.528,522.5 MW22,586.1 MW
Natural Gas66.0%
Hydro7.2%
Lignite12.5%
EGAT-TNB1.6%
Heavy Oil2.0%
Imported Coal9.0%
Diesel0.02%
Renewable Resources1.7%
Energy Generation Energy Generation –– by Fuel Type, by Fuel Type, JanJan--Jul 2007Jul 2007
Total Energy Generation and the Purchased85,664 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)
Energy Generation Energy Generation –– by Producersby Producers, , JanJan--Jul 2007Jul 2007
EGAT38,912 GWh
45.4%
IPPs,SPPs,VSPPs, Purchase from
Neighboring Countries
46,752 GWh54.6 %
Total Energy Generation and the Purchased85,664 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)
Daily Peak Load: March Daily Peak Load: March –– May 2007May 2007
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun
Day
MWMW
2007
2006
MarchReserve Margin
2006 = 24.11%
2007 = 22.91%
AprilReserve Margin
2006 = 25.28%
2007 = 20.44%
22,586 MWon 24 April 2007
at 2:30 p.m. Increased from April 2006
by 10.01%
21,064 MW4 May 2006
at 1:30 p.m.
22,161 MWIncreased from
March 2006 by 6.83%
21,234 MWIncreased from May 2006
by 0.81%
MayReserve Margin
2006 = 22.10%
2007 = 31.48%
Transmission SystemsTransmission Systems
(As of April 2007)
Total High Voltage Transmission Line Length: 30,098 circuit-km
– 500 kV – 3,433 circuit-km– 230 kV – 12,795 circuit-km– 132 kV – 9 circuit-km– 115 kV – 13,792 circuit-km– 69 kV – 46 circuit-km
Total High Voltage Substation: 205 Substations
Transformers: 66,316 MVA
Northern
Northeastern
Central
Southern
Metropolitan
Nam Ngum115 kV
Thakek22 kV
Suwannakhet115 kV
Xe Xet115 kV
115 & 132 kV
Theun Hinboun230 kV
Huay Ho230 kV
EGAT - TNB
115 & 230 kV
230 kV
230 & 500 kV
115 & 230 kV
Assumptions of PDP 2007Assumptions of PDP 2007
Power Demand ForecastPower Demand Forecast(Prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee)(Prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee)
Assumptions:Assumptions:Use actual power demand of 2006 as the base yearUse estimated GDP growth rate provided by the NESDB for Base case, GDP –0.5% for Low case, and GDP +0.5% for High case– Average GDP growth rate of 2007–2011 (the 10th NESDP) is 5.0%.– Average GDP growth rate of 2012–2016 (the 11th NESDP) is 5.6%.– Average GDP growth rate of 2017–2021 (the 12th NESDP) is 5.6%.
NESDB = National Economic and Social Development BoardNESDP = National Economic and Social Development Plan
Long Term Load ForecastLong Term Load ForecastMarch 2007: Base CaseMarch 2007: Base Case
Peak Demand Energy Load
Year Increase Increase FactorMW % GWh % %
Actual
2 0 0 3 18,121 1 ,4 4 0 8 .6 3 118,374 7 ,0 7 4 6 .3 6 7 4 .5 7
2 0 0 4 19,326 1 ,2 0 4 6 .6 5 127,457 9 ,0 8 3 7 .6 7 7 5 .0 8
2 0 0 5 20,538 1,212 6.27 134,827 7,370 5.78 74.94 2 0 0 6 21,064 527 2.56 141,948 7,121 5.28 76.93
Forecast2 0 0 7 22,513 1,449 6.88 150,665 8,717 6.14 76.40 2 0 0 8 23,957 1,444 6.41 158,994 8,329 5.53 75.76 2 0 0 9 25,225 1,268 5.29 167,947 8,953 5.63 76.00 2 0 1 0 26,635 1,410 5.59 177,285 9,338 5.56 75.98 2 0 1 1 27,996 1,361 5.11 185,926 8,641 4.87 75.81 2 0 1 2 29,625 1,629 5.82 196,723 10,797 5.81 75.80 2 0 1 3 31,384 1,759 5.94 208,478 11,755 5.98 75.83 2 0 1 4 33,216 1,832 5.84 220,759 12,281 5.89 75.87 2 0 1 5 35,251 2,035 6.13 234,375 13,616 6.17 75.90 2 0 1 6 37,382 2,131 6.05 248,575 14,200 6.06 75.91 2 0 1 7 39,560 2,178 5.83 263,076 14,501 5.83 75.91 2 0 1 8 41,795 2,235 5.65 278,021 14,945 5.68 75.94 2 0 1 9 44,082 2,287 5.47 293,257 15,236 5.48 75.94 2 0 2 0 46,481 2,399 5.44 309,236 15,979 5.45 75.95 2 0 2 1 48,958 2,477 5.33 325,697 16,461 5.32 75.94
MW GWh
Fuel PriceFuel Price
Natural Gas
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Lignite
Imported Coal
Nuclear
PTT
PTT
PTT
EGAT
EGAT
Ux Consulting Company
Forecasted byType
Power Plant Retirement SchedulePower Plant Retirement Schedule
2007-2015
2016-2021
Year EGAT Power Plant(MW)
2,102
2,831
Total 4,933 2,756 7,689
IPPs/SPPs(MW)
Total(MW)
1,307
1,449
3,409
4,280
Candidate Power PlantCandidate Power Plant
700 MW Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant
700 MW Gas-Fired Combined Cycle Power Plant
230 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant
1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant
National Energy PolicyNational Energy Policy
Increased power import from neighboring countries during 2011-2021
Power Purchase from SPP, VSPP1,700 MW additional power purchased from SPPs during 2012-2020 (to make 4,000 MW in total of the purchased from SPPs)
Fuel Diversification (Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Imported Hydro Power)
Possible Power Import from Neighboring CountriesPossible Power Import from Neighboring Countries
Laos
China
Myanmar
MW
5,000
3,000
8,200
Total 16,200
Country
Planning CriteriaPlanning Criteria
System Reliability– Minimum Reserve Margin : 15%– Maximum LOLP : 24 Hours/Year
Efficiency Improvement– EGAT Power Plant Enhancement (CHP)
Thailand Power Development Plan Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)(PDP 2007)
Various ScenariosVarious Scenarios
PDPs were formulated in 3 scenarios for each load forecast. Totally, there are 9 scenarios as followings.
Load Forecast : Base Case (B)Plan B1 : Least Cost PlanPlan B2 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power PlantsPlan B3 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants,
10 MTPA LNG Limitation and More Power Import from Neighboring Countries
Load Forecast : Low Case (L)Plan L1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3)
Load Forecast : High Case (H)Plan H1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3)
Additional Capacity (MW)Total EGAT Private
2007 SPPs 20.3BLCP Power Co., Ltd. # 2 673.25Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 1 734
Total Annual Increase 1,428 - 1,4282008 South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1 (CHP) 38
SPPs 39Solar Energy, Wind Energy (RPS) 3Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant 710Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 2 734Ratchburi Power Co., Ltd. # 1-2 2x700
Total Annual Increase 2,924 751 2,1732009 South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 2 (CHP) 74
Small Hydro (RPS) 45.7SPPs 88South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 3 715Bang Pakong Combined Cycle # 5 715Power Purchase from Laos (Nam Theun 2) 920
Total Annual Increase 2,558 1,550 1,0082010 Wangnoi Combined Cycle # 1-3 (CHP) 243
North Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1 700Small Hydro (RPS) 33
Total Annual Increase 976 976 -
Power Plant ProjectsYear
Ongoing Power Plant Projects (2007 Ongoing Power Plant Projects (2007 –– 2010)2010)
2007 Upgrading of the 115 kV Central-Southern Regions tie line to 230 kV Project
Transmission System Expansion Project - Phase 10 (2007 -2008)
Transmission System for Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant Project
2008 Transmission System for South Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 3
Transmission System for Bang Pakong Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 5
Transmission System Project for Power Purchased from Nam Theun 2 Hydro Power Plant
Transmission System Expansion Projects for the Greater Bangkok Area and Vicinity - Phase 2 (2008-2010)
2009 Transmission System for North Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 1
2010 500 kV Transmission System Project for IPPs Power Plants
500 kV Transmission System for Power Purchased from Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelctric Project
Transmission System ProjectsYear
Ongoing Transmission System Projects Ongoing Transmission System Projects (2007(2007––2010)2010)
Power Increasing Total PeakReserveMargin
Gas Coal Nuclear SPP Import Capacity Capacity Demand (%)
2011 - - - - 597 597 34,037 27,996 18.0
2012 1,400 - - 200 220 1,820 35,857 29,625 17.4
2013 1,400 - - 200 963 2,563 37,800 31,384 16.5
2014 1,400 700 - 200 261 2,561 40,361 33,216 17.7
2015 1,400 1,400 - 200 - 3,000 42,186 35,251 16.1
Total 5,600 2,100 - 800 2,041 10,5412016 1,400 700 - 200 390 2,690 44,127 37,382 16.4
2017 2,800 - - 200 500 3,500 47,119 39,560 15.6
2018 2,800 - - 200 510 3,510 49,888 41,795 15.6
2019 3,500 - - 200 530 4,230 52,829 44,082 16.5
2020 1,400 - 2,000 100 550 4,050 55,251 46,481 16.7
2021 700 - 2,000 570 3,270 58,321 48,958 15.4-
Total 12,600 700 4,000 900 3,050 21,250
Grand Total 18,200 2,800 4,000 1,700 5,091 31,791
YearNew Domestic Capacity
PDP 2007 (Recommended Plan)PDP 2007 (Recommended Plan)
Power Increasing Total PeakReserveMargin
Gas Coal Nuclear SPP Import Capacity Capacity Demand (%)
2011 - - - - 597 597 34,037 27,996 18.0
2012 1,400 - - 200 220 1,820 35,857 29,625 17.4
2013 1,400 - - 200 963 2,563 37,800 31,384 16.5
2014 1,400 700 - 200 261 2,561 40,361 33,216 17.7
2015 1,400 1,400 - 200 - 3,000 42,186 35,251 16.1
Total 5,600 2,100 - 800 2,041 10,5412016 1,400 700 - 200 390 2,690 44,127 37,382 16.4
2017 1,400 - - 200 1,900 3,500 47,119 39,560 15.6
2018 1,400 - - 200 1,910 3,510 49,888 41,795 15.6
2019 - - - 200 4,030 4,230 52,829 44,082 16.5
2020 - - 2,000 100 1,950 4,050 55,251 46,481 16.7
2021 - - 2,000 1,270 3,270 58,321 48,958 15.4-
Total 4,200 700 4,000 900 11,450 21,250
Grand Total 9,800 2,800 4,000 1,700 13,491 31,791
YearNew Domestic Capacity
PDP 2007 (Alternative Plan)PDP 2007 (Alternative Plan)
Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Recommended Plan)Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Recommended Plan)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Imported Power
Nuclear
Renewable Energy
Diesel
Heavy Oil
Natural Gas
Imported Coal
Lignite
Hydro (Domestic)
8%
12%
7% 6%
73%
69%71%
72%
11%
6%
13%
70%
6% 6% 12%
73% 69%
5%
10%8%7% 6% 6%
12% 10%
75%
65%
9% 8%
8%9%
9%
8%8%
8%
8%8%
8%
5% 9%
75%
6%
GWh
GWh
YearYear
69%
10%
6%
7%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Imported Power
Nuclear
Renewable Energy
Diesel
Heavy Oil
Natural Gas
Imported Coal
Lignite
Hydro (Domestic)
Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Alternative Plan)Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Alternative Plan)
8% 7% 6%
69%73%
69% 67% 64%
6%
70%57% 50%
5%7% 6% 6%
75%
46%
10% 9% 8%
24%27%
28%
8%12% 16%
8%8%
8%5% 9%
75%
6%6%
12% 11%13%6% 6%
12% 10%7% 8% 12% 10%
Thailand Thailand –– Lao PDR CollaborationLao PDR Collaboration
Power Purchased from Lao PDRPower Purchased from Lao PDR
YearYear ProjectsProjects Capacity Capacity (MW)(MW)
StatusStatus
1998 Theun Hinboun 214 Commissioned
1999 Huay Ho 126 Commissioned
2009 Nam Theun 2 920 PPA signed, Under construction
2011 Nam Ngum 2 597 PPA signed, Under construction
2012 Theun Hinboun (Extended) 220 Draft Tariff MOU completed, to be signed within 2007
2013 Nam Ngum 3 440 PPA to be signed within 2007
Nam Theun 1 523 PPA to be signed within 2007
2014 Nam Ngiep 1 261 Tariff MOU signed on June 13, 2007
TotalTotal 3,3013,301
Noted: The Royal Thai Government and the Laos Government have signed the MOU, on 18 December 2006, stating that Thailand will increase the imported capacity from 3,000 MW to 5,000 MW from Laos.
Thailand Thailand –– Lao PDR InterconnectionLao PDR Interconnection
Existing Future ProjectsExisting Future Projects
500 kV Transmission Line500 kV Transmission Line
230 kV Transmission Line230 kV Transmission Line
115 kV Transmission Line115 kV Transmission Line
ConclusionConclusion
Conclusion : Long Term PDPConclusion : Long Term PDP
PDP was formulated based on available current information.
Once this information is updated and/or new national policy on energy is applied, PDP is also reformulated.
This probably changes the results in the number of future power plants and their fuel requirement.
PDP is therefore ‘A Rolling Plan’.
Thank You...Thank You...
Fuel PriceFuel Price
Note : (1–3) Data from PTT, 31 January 2007 (at crude price 55 USD/BBL): (4) Data from EGAT: (5) 2008-2011 FOB forecast from ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics),
average transportation cost 15 USD/Ton: (6) Ux Consulting Company, 21 February 2007
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Year Diesel Lignite Imported Coal Nuclear
(THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU)
2007 326 619 53.1 90.1 24.7 2008 326 619 53.1 90.6 24.7 2009 326 619 53.9 89.8 24.7 2010 326 619 55.2 89.7 24.7 2011 222 326 619 57.0 88.6 24.7 2012 246 326 619 58.9 89.1 24.7 2013 244 326 619 60.7 89.6 24.7 2014 246 326 619 62.6 90.1 24.7 2015 246 326 619 63.7 90.6 24.7 2016 248 326 619 65.7 91.2 24.7 2017 249 326 619 68.2 91.7 24.7 2018 251 326 619 72.4 92.2 24.7 2019 253 326 619 74.7 92.7 24.7 2020 254 326 619 76.3 93.3 24.7 2021 255 326 619 78.1 93.8 24.7
Marginal Natural Gas
for New Plants
2% Sulfur Heavy Oil
Exchange Rate : 37 THB/USD