thayer maritime strategic overview of the asia-pacific

8/14/2019 Thayer Maritime Strategic Overview of the Asia-Pacific

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Maritime Strategic Overview

of the Asia-Pacific

Professor Carlyle A. ThayerProfessor Carlyle A. Thayer

Australian Defence Force AcademyAustralian Defence Force AcademyPresentation toPresentation to

RSN International Maritime Security ConferenceRSN International Maritime Security Conference

Singapore, May 13-24, 2009Singapore, May 13-24, 2009


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Changing Global Environment

IMF forecasts unusually long and severe globalIMF forecasts unusually long and severe global

recessionrecession

The primary near-term concern of the UnitedThe primary near-term concern of the United

States is the global economic crisis and itsStates is the global economic crisis and itsgeopolitical implications.geopolitical implications.

Director of (US) National IntelligenceDirector of (US) National Intelligence

Chinas rise is the most consequential long termChinas rise is the most consequential long term

trend in the world today.trend in the world today.

Hugh White, former Australian Deputy Secretary forHugh White, former Australian Deputy Secretary for

Defence (Strategy and Intelligence)Defence (Strategy and Intelligence)


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Chinas GDP to Overtake US


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Changing Power Relativities


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Changing Global Environment

Arc of instability across Africa and MiddleArc of instability across Africa and Middle

EastEast

prominence of non-state actorsprominence of non-state actors Demographic deficits in Japan and RussiaDemographic deficits in Japan and Russia

Persisting but diminished U.S. globalPersisting but diminished U.S. global

dominancedominance Emerging multipolar systemEmerging multipolar system

Growing importance of maritime domainGrowing importance of maritime domain


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The Maritime Domain


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Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics

Impact of Global Economic CrisisImpact of Global Economic Crisis

U.S. moral authority dented and attraction ofU.S. moral authority dented and attraction of

capitalist development model underminedcapitalist development model undermined

Strengthening of Chinas leadership role andStrengthening of Chinas leadership role and

enhancement of state-led development modelenhancement of state-led development model

National economic recovery and economicNational economic recovery and economic

growth key priority for allgrowth key priority for all

North Korea going against the tideNorth Korea going against the tide


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U.S. National Security Policy (June 2009)U.S. National Security Policy (June 2009)

U.S. commitment to allies through forwardU.S. commitment to allies through forward

presence and power projection (Guam)presence and power projection (Guam) U.S.-Japan allianceU.S.-Japan alliance

cornerstone of U.S. strategycornerstone of U.S. strategy

Defense Policy Review Initiative (transformationDefense Policy Review Initiative (transformationand realignment)and realignment)

First overseas visit by Secretary ClintonFirst overseas visit by Secretary Clinton


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U.S.-Korea allianceU.S.-Korea alliance

U.S. Forces Korea transformationU.S. Forces Korea transformation

Assumption of war-time operational controlAssumption of war-time operational control20122012

U.S.-India relationsU.S.-India relations

Indian Maritime Doctrine (2004)Indian Maritime Doctrine (2004)

Evolving strategic partnershipEvolving strategic partnership

Defence sales, maritime security cooperation,Defence sales, maritime security cooperation,

counter-terrorism, HA/DR engagementcounter-terrorism, HA/DR engagement


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China: primacy of economic growth andChina: primacy of economic growth andpeaceful international environmentpeaceful international environment

Defence transformation and modernizationDefence transformation and modernization Taiwan Strait contingenciesTaiwan Strait contingencies

U.S.-China relationsU.S.-China relations Taiwan Relations ActTaiwan Relations Act

Strategic and Economic DialogueStrategic and Economic Dialogue Resumption of military-to-military relationsResumption of military-to-military relations

Rival, peer competitor, strategic partner?Rival, peer competitor, strategic partner?


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Comparing Defence Budgets


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Chinas Critical SLOCs


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Anti-access/

area-denialor power

projection?

Conventional

Anti-Access

Capabilities Ballistic

Missiles


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Yulin NavalYulin Naval

BaseBase


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JapanJapan Deployments to Indian Ocean, Gulf of AdenDeployments to Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden

South KoreaSouth Korea

Redefinition of U.S-Korea allianceRedefinition of U.S-Korea alliance From coastal patrol to blue water fleetFrom coastal patrol to blue water fleet

ROK to assume operational control 2012ROK to assume operational control 2012

Rise of Indias power and influenceRise of Indias power and influence

Cooperation with US but independent actorCooperation with US but independent actor Concern over Chinas presence in Indian OceanConcern over Chinas presence in Indian Ocean

Emergence of East Asian security architectureEmergence of East Asian security architecture


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The Next Decade

Continuing impact Global Financial CrisisContinuing impact Global Financial Crisis

Hardy perennialsHardy perennials

Korean peninsula, Taiwan, South China SeaKorean peninsula, Taiwan, South China Sea

Security Dilemma naval arms build upSecurity Dilemma naval arms build up

Submarines and other platformsSubmarines and other platforms

Upgrade of Regional Security ArchitectureUpgrade of Regional Security Architecture North East Asia and Indian Ocean deficitsNorth East Asia and Indian Ocean deficits

APEC Plus and/or EAS Plus?APEC Plus and/or EAS Plus?


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Maritime Strategic Overview

of the Asia-Pacific

Professor Carlyle A. ThayerProfessor Carlyle A. Thayer

School of Humanities & Social SciencesSchool of Humanities & Social Sciences

University of New South WalesUniversity of New South Walesat the Australian Defence Force Academyat the Australian Defence Force Academy

Canberra, AustraliaCanberra, Australia

thayer maritime strategic overview of the asia-pacific

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