8/13/2019 Thayer Philippines: U.S. Response to Typhoon Haiyan

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Background Brief

Philippines: U.S. Response toTyphoon Haiyan

Carlyle A. Thayer

November 21, 2013

[client name deleted]

As weve witnessed, the US has responded swiftly to provide aid to the Philippinesafter Typhoon Haiyan. We request your assessment of the following issues:

ANSWER:

Q1. What did Typhoon Haiyan show us about having the US as the key ally? And

what did it show us about having China as an ally, or an opponent? And how would

that relate to Vietnam?

ANSWER: The swift U.S. humanitarian response to Typhoon Haiyans destructive

impact on the Philippines is a product of repeated training in humanitarian

assistance/disaster response (HA/DR) by the U.S. military. The U.S. began to stress

HA/DR in the aftermath of the Cold War when regional states stressed theimportance of non-traditional security issues. HA/DR was foremost among them.

In this context note the swift and decisive U.S. response to the 2004 tsumani that

struck Indonesia. The following year the U.S. assembled a task force to assist

Myanmar in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis but was prevented from rendering

direct assistance due to the attitude of the Myanmar government.

The U.S. was able to respond so quickly to the Philippines because the two military

allies have incorporated HA/DR serials in their annual military exercises. In other

words, the U.S. and the Philippines have already worked out in advance protocols for

foreign assistance, standard operating procedures and interoperability.The United States military is geared to offer HA/DR assistance to any nation in the

Asia-Pacific regardless of its military affiliation ally, strategic partner or otherwise.

Of course the Philippines is a special case due to the long-standing relationship

between the two countries dating to the colonial period. There is a domestically

important Filipino constituency in the United States. And the Philippines is a treaty

ally

Q2. Do you think the need of having a close ally nearby, not only for the purpose of

strengthening defense ability, but also for disaster relief, rescue operations will

eventually lead to the US coming back to Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam?

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8/13/2019 Thayer Philippines: U.S. Response to Typhoon Haiyan

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ANSWER: A U.S. military return to Cam Ranh Bay in the near future is highly unlikely.

Vietnam has a policy of three nos no military alliances, no military bases and no

use of a bilateral relationship directed at a third country. Vietnam also maintains a

relatively robust capability to deal with major natural disasters. Of course any state

can be overwhelmed by a major natural disaster and require foreign assistance. The

U.S. and Vietnam have included HA/DR in their defence cooperation Memorandum

of Understanding. This should pave the way for the receipt of U.S. assistance in the

case of a national emergency along with other members of the international

community.

The U.S. ability to respond to a natural disaster will be enhanced by the rotational

presence of U.S. military forces in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Philippines. The

U.S. is also promoting cooperation and interoperability in search and rescue with

both Vietnam and the Philippines.

At present Cam Ranh Bay is divided into three separate areas: a Vietnamese military

area, a civilian area, and a newly developing area for repair and maintenance ofmilitary vessels. Russia, which will be providing assistance to Vietnam to maintain its

Kilo-class submarines, reportedly seeks exclusive access to this new area. So far

Vietnam has permitted only U.S. non-combat ships to dock in Cam Ranh Bay for

repair. These ships belong to the U.S. Military Sealift Command.

The most likely scenario for HA/DR response would be for Vietnam to allow the

temporary staging of U.S. military aircraft and/or naval vessels at its airfields and

ports to deal with a major natural disaster either in Vietnam or in a nearby state. The

circumstance would have to be quite extraordinary.

When the U.S. and the Philippines finally agree on a legal instrument to implementtheir Joint Vision Statement there will be a marked increase in U.S. rotational

presence in the Philippines including the pre-positioning of supplies for disaster

response. These facilities would seem to make Cam Ranh Bay redundant.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Philippines: U.S. Response to Typhoon

Haiyan,Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 21, 2013. All background

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and

other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially

registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.