the 2010 election: three important questions? john curtice strathclyde university
TRANSCRIPT
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The 2010 Election: Three Important Questions?
John CurticeStrathclyde University
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Three Questions
• Are we (still) disengaged?• Where stands the Union – and the West
Lothian question?• What are the implications for the debate
about the electoral system?
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Trends in Turnout
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Trends in Civic Duty
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The Loss of Trust
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Did Expenses Matter?
Con Lab
Incumbent - Expenses +2.7 -6.1
- Not Expenses +4.5 -5.0
Non-incumbent - Expenses +1.4 -7.0
- Not Expenses +3.9 -7.4
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Scotland Goes Its Own Way
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Three Different Results!
England E, W & NI UK
Con 298 306 307
Lab 191 217 258
LD 43 46 57
Others 1 22 28
Con. Maj. 63 21 -19
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Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote
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Liberal Democrat Seats
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The Decline of the Marginal Seat
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Tory and Lab Britain Nudge Apart
2005 Result Swing from Lab to Con
Change in LD Vote
Con 1st/Lab 2nd +6.8 +3.3
Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. < 10%
+6.1 +1.2
Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. 10-20%
+5.1 -0.7
Lab 1st/Con 2nd; Maj. > 20%
+6.1 +1.2
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The Anti-Tory Bias
Con Lab
Electorate 72,396 68,360
Turnout 68.4 61.3
=> Voters 49,474 41,857
Small Majorities 60 83
Vote in Third Party Seats
28.4 16.6
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How The System Now (Doesn’t) Work
Con % Lead Con Lab LD Others
-2.8 239 326 59 26
0.0 255 307 61 27
4.0 282 281 59 28
7.2 307 258 57 28
11.2 328 232 62 28
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Three Answers?
• There is still a problem of voter disengagement – the MPs expenses scandal may have negated the ‘closer’ election.
• The West Lothian question is likely to become more pressing – but Scotland will need attention too.
• Advocates of FPP are at risk of defending a system that no longer works.