the 2012 jewish votethe 2012 jewish vote national, ohio, and florida post-election jewish...

The 2012 Jewish VoteNational, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys

November 7, 2012

FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote

Methodology

• National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent

• Ohio statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent

• Florida statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent

• National survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study

• Ohio and Florida surveys conducted by landline telephones and cell phones, calling a random sample of registered voters with Jewish names and people who self-identify as Jewish in consumer data that has been appended to the state voter files; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study

2


Bottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish Vote

In an election where Obama enjoyed a narrow victory with the overall American electorate, he had an overwhelming victory with the Jewish electorate.

The shift in Obama’s Jewish vote from 2008 reflects shifts in other constituencies such as such as college graduates, whites, Independents, voters under 30, and Catholics.

Obama is more trusted than Romney on all issues, ranging from Social Security and Medicare (65-26) and the economy (56-32) to dealing with Iran (58-26) and Israel (53-31).

Ultimately, the Jewish vote was driven by a mixture of strong support for President Obama (67 percent job approval), a growing sense that he is turning things around for the country (55 percent right direction), positive feelings toward the Democratic Party (54 favorable / 33 unfavorable), and intense opposition to Mitt Romney (29 favorable / 62 unfavorable) and the Republican Party (26 favorable / 64 unfavorable).

3


Key Findings

Nationwide and in two key swing states, overwhelming support for Obama and Democratic candidates among American Jews.

• Obama receives 70 percent of Jewish votes nationally, 69 percent in Ohio, and 68 percent in Florida

• Senator Sherrod Brown receives 71 percent in Ohio ;Senator Bill Nelson receives 72 percent in Florida

Economy is top voting issue (53 percent), followed by health care (32 percent), Social Security and Medicare (23 percent), and the deficit and government spending (20 percent). Israel is top issue for 10 percent of Jewish voters and Iran is top issue for 2 percent.

Jews hold progressive views on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.• Strong support for U.S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, even if

it means publicly stating disagreements with the Israelis and the Arabs (69 percent support)• 76 percent support the U.S. putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security• 72 percent support comprehensive agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters

Addressing Iranian threat elicits mixed views among Jews– 47 percent want to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work before setting red lines, 35 percent think diplomacy and sanctions have failed and it’s now time to set red lines.

4


2012 Jewish VoteNational, Ohio, and Florida

5


2012 Presidential Vote

National Ohio Florida0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

70 69 68

30 30 31

Obama Romney

6


President and Congress Vote - Nationwide

7

Obama Romney0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

70

30

Presidential Race

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

69

30

Congressional Race


2008 and 2012 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies

8

% Democrat / % Republican Obama Vote Shift

2008 2012 2008 to 2012

Total 53 / 46 50 / 49 -3

Jewish 74 / 26 70 / 30 -4

Unmarried women 70 / 30 Awaiting exit poll results

Hispanics 67 / 31 71 / 27 +4

Voters under 30 years-old 66 / 32 60 / 37 -6

College Graduate 53 / 45 50 / 48 -3

Independents 52 / 44 45 / 50 -7

Whites 43 / 55 39 / 59 -4

No religion 75 / 23 70 / 26 -5

Other religion 73 / 22 74 / 23 +1

Catholics 54 / 45 50 / 48 -4

Protestants 45 / 54 42 / 57 -3

White Evangelicals 24 / 74 Awaiting exit poll results


Historical Perspective:Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections

• Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980

• Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent

Year % of Jewish Vote

Democrat Republican Independent1972 65 351976 71 27 21980 45 39 141984 67 311988 64 351992 80 11 91996 78 16 32000 79 19 12004 74 252008 74 262012 70 30

9

Source: Exit poll data


Impact of the Jewish Vote

10

Source: 2008 exit polls

Jewish Population %

2012 Vote Results(Obama/Romney)

New York 6 62 / 36

Florida 5 50 / 49

Pennsylvania 4 52 / 47

New Jersey 3 58 / 41

Nevada 3 52 / 46

Ohio 1 50 / 48


Presidential and Senate VoteOhio / Florida

Presidential Vote Senate Vote0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

69 71

30 28

Ohio Vote

11

Presidential Vote Senate Vote0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

6872

3126

Florida Vote

Obama

Romney

Sherrod Brown

Josh Mandel

Obama

Romney

Bill Nelson

Connie Mack


Very Few Romney Voters Considered Obama

Yes, very se-riously

Yes, somewhat seriously

Yes, only a little seriously

Didn't consider Obama

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2 4 2

23

3 3 3

24

3 2 2

27

National Ohio Florida

(ROMNEY VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Barack Obama for President? How seriously did you think about voting for Barack Obama -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously?

12


Sizable Number of Obama Voters Considered Romney

Yes, very se-riously

Yes, somewhat seriously

Yes, only a little seriously

Didn't consider Romney

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

58 6

53

4 4 5

57

35

4

54


(OBAMA VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Mitt Romney for President? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for Mitt Romney-- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously?

13


Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012

20080

20

40

60

80

19

52

75

Contributed to Obama's CampaignContributed to McCain's CampaignContributed to both

In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain?

In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of Mitt Romney?

14

20120

20

40

60

80

19

61

74

Contributed to Obama's CampaignContributed to Romney's CampaignContributed to both


Driving Factors Behind the Jewish Vote

15


Country DirectionGrowing Sense that US is Headed in Right Direction

July 2008

March 2009

August 2009

March 2010

November 2010

July 2011

November 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10

36

54

4144

34

55

90

64

46

5956

66

45

Right Direction Wrong Track

16


Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential Vote

17


The economy 53 60 51

Health care 32 33 29

Social Security and Medicare 23 16 23

The deficit and government spending 20 14 13

Taxes 12 7 5

Abortion 10 15 15

Israel 10 9 14

Terrorism and national security 10 10 9

Education 9 14 13

The environment 5 6 4

Iran 2 2 4

Energy 4 2 3

Illegal immigration 4 2 2



10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

26

912

74

84 81


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

34

60 63

3

Congress Job Approval


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

67 67 66

3331


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

24

45 47

2024

28

Obama Job Approval

Obama and Congress Job Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing?

18

Strongly disapproveStrongly approve

Total approve Total disapprove

Strongly disapproveStrongly approve

Total approve Total disapprove

31


Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictNational

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3338

71

29

43

30

73

27

2010 2012

Now, something different. Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict

19


Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictNational, Ohio, Florida

I disagree with the President’s policies

I agree with the President’s policies, but I don’t like the way he is executing these policies

I agree with the President’s policies and I like the way he is executing these policies

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

30

19

46

28

20

47

27

30

43


Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict?

20


Favorability Ratings - National

Mitt Romney

George W.

Bush

The Republican

Party

Paul Ryan

The Tea Party Movement

Sheldon Adelson

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

6961

54 5247

29 28 26 2316

9

-23-31 -33 -35

-20

-62 -64 -64 -64-69

-29

Favorable Unfavorable

21

Bill Clinton

BarackObama

BenjaminNetanyahu

TheDemocratic

Party

Joe Biden


Favorability – National, Ohio, and Florida


Fav / Unfav Fav / Unfav Fav / Unfav

Barack Obama 61 / 31 68 / 27 66 / 29

Mitt Romney 29 / 62 30 / 60 30 / 60

The Democratic Party 54 / 33 61 / 26 59 / 28

The Republican Party 26 / 64 24 / 64 24 / 63

Sherrod Brown -- 62 / 25 --

Josh Mandel -- 22 / 68 --

Bill Nelson -- -- 53 / 23

Connie Mack -- -- 14 / 59

Debbie Wasserman Schultz -- -- 46 / 28

22


The deficit and government spending

Israel

Advancing Middle East peace

The economy and jobs

Dealing with Iran

Terrorism and national security

Social Security and Medicare

Fighting for the things that are most important to you

Health care

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

37

31

25

32

26

26

26

27

26

49

53

53

56

58

60

65

63

65

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

22

19

15

22

17

17

17

18

15

25

29

29

29

33

36

44

44

45

Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryNational

Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue?

23

Obama total betterRomney much betterObama much better

Romney total better


Israel

Dealing with Iran




0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

29

27

27

25

52

54

66

66

67

22

18

19

18

19

37

40

52

54

56

Brown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our CountryOhio

Do you think Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel would do a better job on this issue?

24

Brown much better job Mandel much better job

Brown total better job Mandel total better job

23


Israel


Dealing with Iran



0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

34

30

29

56

61

61

65

65

Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue?

26

29

24

25

21

39

41

48

55

55

Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryFlorida

25

Obama much better job Romney much better job

Obama total better job Romney total better job

30

34


Impact of Attacks on Obama and Democrats

26


Awareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelNational / Ohio

National Ohio0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

45

73

55

24

Yes No

Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements or receive any mail pieces criticizing President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel?

27


National Ohio0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

3822

23 13

40

63

National Ohio0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

221615

9

40

63

Impact of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelNational / Ohio

Did any of these television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail)

28

Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneyNo difference

Total Obama Total Romney


Awareness of Netanyahu AdvertisementsFlorida

Yes No0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

45

53

Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Iran?

29


Total Support Obama Total Support Romney No Difference0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

27

16


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

22

12

56

Impact of Netanyahu AdvertisementsFlorida

Did any of these television advertisements with Prime Minister Netanyahu make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail)

30

Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneySomewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney


Netanyahu Involvement with Presidential CampaignNational

0

20

40

60

80

16 18

67

Based on your own observation of the 2012 Presidential election, do you think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took steps to try and help one of the candidates running for U.S. President?

31



10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

44

21

36


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

25

11

36

Impact of Netanyahu Involvement

Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to help make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who felt that Netanyahu tried to help a candidate)

32

Much more likely Obama Much more likely Romney

Somewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney


United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict

33


United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict

Active role Even if disagree with both sides

Even if disagree with Israel

Putting forth a peace plan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

81

69

52

76

19

31

48

24

Support Oppose

34


Support for Bill Clinton as Middle East Envoy

Support Oppose0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

49

7

84

16

Imagine for a minute that the winning U.S. Presidential candidate appoints former President Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy with the responsibility of bringing Israelis and Palestinians together to negotiate a final status agreement. Regardless of who you voted for in this year’s Presidential election, would you support or oppose the appointment of Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy?

35

Strongly opposeStrongly supportTotal support Total oppose


Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement

Support Oppose0

20

40

60

80

100

23

72

9

28

Strongly support Total support Strongly opposeTotal oppose

As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include:

36

• A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza

• Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return

• Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem

• International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings

• Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves


Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Diplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and Palestinians

July 2008 March 2009 August 2009 March 2010 Nov. 2010 Nov. 20120

10

20

30

40

50

6055 51 51 50

4550

30 32 33 3437

30

Middle East peace is a core American interest, and the United States should use assertive diplomacy to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Only the parties themselves can make peace, and the United States should let the Pales-tinians and Israelis work out the conflict on their own.

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right

37


U.S. Negotiation Role Fair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with Israel

August 2009 November 2010 November 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

45

50 49

4135 34

The United States should act as a fair and impartial broker in order to achieve a peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians.

The United States should side with Israel during peace negotiations in order to protect Amer-ica’s democratic ally Israel.

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right

38


American Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel Policy

Series1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

26

16

47

311st Statement: It bothers me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy.

39

2nd Statement: It does not bother me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy.

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

2nd Statement Strongly1st Statement Strongly

1st Statement Total 2nd Statement Total


Iranian SanctionsNeed More Time vs. Failed

Series1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

20

28

35

47

1st Statement: Before setting red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the United States needs to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work.

40

2nd Statement: Diplomacy and sanctions have failed to stop Iran from continuing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and it is now time for the United States to set red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

2nd Statement Strongly1st Statement Strongly

1st Statement Total 2nd Statement Total


U.S. Focus in the Middle EastIran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same Attention

Before addressing the Iranian nuclear threat, the U.S. should address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Before addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the U.S. should address the Iranian nuclear threat.

The U.S. must address both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iranian nuclear threat at the same time.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10

29

61

Which of the following statements best describes how you feel about how the U.S. should focus its attention in the Middle East?

41


United Nations Relationship with Israel

Fair Unfair0

10

20

30

40

50

60

12

51

21

49

Not at all fairlyVery fairlyTotal fair Total unfair

Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly?

42


United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status

I’m not sure

Vote for granting non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state

Vote against granting non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

21

35

44

As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote –

43


Support for Two–State Solution

44


Support for a Two-State Solution

July 2008 August 2009 November 2010 November 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

78 81 79 82

22 19 21 18

Agree Disagree

(SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

45


Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State

August 2009 November 2010 November 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

7078 79

3022 21

Agree Disagree

(SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem.

46


Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Character


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

75 7782 81

25 2318 19

Agree Disagree

A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character

47


Two-State Solution Important for American Security


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

7276

81 81

2824

19 19

Agree Disagree

A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States.

48

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