the 6th regional coordinators meetingpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/571871487260946207/icp-rc06... ·...

The 6th Regional Coordinators Meeting

April 23 - 25, 2012

Paris

Opening Remarks

Welcome by OECD

2

Meeting Sessions

I. Meeting Objectives and Global Status Report

II. Regional Status Reports

III. Metadata and Quality Questionnaires

IV. Outstanding Items for Special Surveys

V. Regional Price Data Review

VI. Global Validation of Price Data, Expenditures, and Importance

VII. Upcoming Activities and Next Steps

VIII.Recap of Meeting Decisions

3

I. Meeting Objectives

and Global Status Report

Overall Objective

Specific Objectives

Governance decisions from EB meetings

Report to the Executive Board

Status of Main Survey (HHC Data) Submission

Status of National Account Data Submission

Global Validation

Potential Risks

Global Office Activities – Q1, 2012

Upcoming Governance Meeting & Reporting

4

Overall Objective

Reference objective

Short-term objective

Complete the current ICP round timely and successfully, at both regional and global level

Meet the Executive Board demands related to the soundness of the proposed computation and linking methods, as well as the reliability and quality of input data and ensuing results

5

Specific Objectives

A. Ensure that all required data and metadata inputs for global linking are being generated by the regions and the Global Office, in a timely fashion, in accordance with the prescribed quality requirements:

ICP Coverage: country coverage; regional participation; survey coverage. Prices: completeness; frequency; time and space consistency; comparability;

level of disaggregation; etc. National Accounts: SNA compliance; exhaustiveness; consistency; metadata

reporting; etc Importance indicators: relevance; consistency; reliability; completeness.

C. Reaffirm our collective adherence to the agreed data and metadata submission schedule as well as subsequent activities.

B. Confirm if the linking method can be implemented as recommended in terms of all the countries pricing Global Core items for all possible basic headings.

6

Specific Objectives

D. For dual participation, ensure the consistency of methods used for:

HHC Average Price Data Compiling HHC Data Validation Special Survey Average Price Data Compiling Special Survey Data Validation Consistency of National Accounts Aggregates and Expenditures used in the

two regional programs

7

Governance decisions from EB meetings

TAG and GO to carefully examine issues related to

the concept of importance and the extra-pricing of

GCL items by a particular country.

TAG to carry out a sequence of tests on the

translation of importance into quantitative weights.

GO to update the Board on any potential risk

situations, and stabilize the number of participating

economies.

Status and Risk Assessment

RCs to improve punctuality in data submission so

that the 2011 round can proceed according to the

planned timeline, without sacrificing data quality.

Technical Aspects

Outreach Activities and Data Access

GO to prepare a 1-2 page foreword providing a

layman definition of PPP and a brief review of the

major uses of ICP statistics.

GO and TAG to test thoroughly the computation

processes .

Countries to explain their GDP splitting

procedures and provide the sources of the data

along with any underlying assumptions applied,

extrapolation and calculation methods.

Board to explore outreach activities related to PPP

results usage in its next meeting in order to

prepare a comprehensive communication strategy.

OECD and CIS-STAT to communicate with their

countries on the potential access to regional non-

Core average price data.

Board tentatively approved revised 2011 Data

Access Policy, except on the access to regional

non-Core average prices, which will be further

discussed. 8

TAG and GO to carefully examine issues related to

the concept of importance and the extra-pricing of

GCL items by a particular country.

TAG to carry out a sequence of tests on the

translation of importance into quantitative weights.

GO to update the Board on any potential risk

situations, and stabilize the number of participating

economies.

Status and Risk Assessment

RCs to improve punctuality in data submission so

that the 2011 round can proceed according to the

planned timeline, without sacrificing data quality.

Technical Aspects

GO and TAG to test thoroughly the computation

processes.

Countries to explain their GDP splitting

procedures and provide the sources of the data

along with any underlying assumptions applied,

extrapolation and calculation methods.

Report to the Executive Board on:

The feasibility of the linking approach

Availability of required data and metadata Timeliness of submission Testing Analysis of plausibility of results

The quantification of importance indicators

The impact of countries in a region pricing more or less Global core items than most of the other countries in that region

Reliability and completeness of importance indicators Testing Recommendations of formula and resulting weights to be

used

Risk assessment Feasibility

Quality

Timeliness

Access

Linking

√

√

Regional results

√

√ √

Global results

√

√

9

Status of Main Survey (HHC data) Submission

Africa

Asia -

Pacific

CIS

LAC

WA

46

22

N/A

17

8

ICP 94

CAR

PAC

Sin.

…

…

1

Q1

47

22

10

18

8

106

…

…

1

Data Submitted

43

23

N/A

17

10

94

…

…

1

Q2

48

23

10

18

10

110

…

…

1

Survey Conducted

Data Submitted

22

23

N/A

16

9

71

…

…

1

Q3

48

23

10

18

11

112

…

…

2

Survey Conducted

Data Submitted

9

N/A

N/A

N/A

2

11

…

…

N/A

Q4

48

23

10

N/A

11

94

…

…

2

Survey Conducted

Data Submitted

OECD-

ESTAT N/A 47 N/A 47 N/A 47 N/A 47

(Dual

Part.) -2 -3 -2 -3 N/A -1 N/A -1

Grand

Total 92 150 92 154 71 158 11 140

Survey Conducted

Par

tici

pat

ion

23

50

10

18

12

154

21

18

2

47

-4

197

10

Status of National Accounts Data Submission

Asia

Africa

CIS

LAC

WA

ICP Region

Total

Caribbean

Pacific Isl.

Singleton

MORES format

…

…

8

12

9

30

…

…

1

Other format

12

48

…

…

…

60

…

…

…

11

OECD-Eurostat ... 46

Grand Total 30 106

Global Validation

Review of data and metadata received by the Global Office and the VEG in terms of:

Overall quality of price data (by region) Comparability of data at regional level Comparability of data at global level Extent which Global Core prices represent/ reflect regional price levels Density/sparsity of price data and its effect on computing linking factors Quality of resulting linking factors Time consistency with 2005 data

12

Potential Risks

Timeliness of data and metadata from regions

No Submission of particular type of data and metadata by a region

Low coverage of non-reference PPP basic headings Low number of GCL items per basic heading No GCL items under a basic heading Single GCP price quotations

Coverage

Any schedule slippage will have adverse effect on the publication of global and regional PPPs as for Global core items, Global validation depends on regional validation and vice versa.

Poor National Accounts metadata reporting

13

Global Office Activities - Q1, 2012

Regional Workshops

Mission to Countries

Regional Meetings

Bilateral Meetings

Asia-Pacific Region Data Review Workshop organized by ADB

(Siem Reap, Cambodia, March 19-30) 5th Western Asia ICP Regional Workshop organized by UN-ESCWA

(Dead Sea, Jordan, March 12-15) EGM on Price Statistics and National Accounts organized by UN-

ECLAC for CARICOM, CARTAC and ECCB (St. Kitts, March 26-30)

5th mission of the bilateral comparison between Armenia and

Georgia for ICP 2011 (Tbilisi, Georgia, February 20-23)

Western Asia Regional Executive Board Meeting (New York, February 27)

ICP side meeting to review the status of ICP 2011 Round in the Caribbean (New York, February 29)

GO-AfDB (Tunis, Tunisia, March 5-9) GO-ESCWA (Dead Sea, Jordan, March 16-17)

Governance Meeting ICP Executive Board Meeting (New York, February 27)

14

Upcoming Governance Meetings & Reporting

Reports

Meetings TAG Meeting (September 17-18, 2012) RC Meeting (September 19-21, 2012) VEG Meeting (September 21, 2012) ICP Executive Board Meeting (November 2012)

Interim Progress Report to the EB (July 2012) Report to the 44th session of the UNSC (November 2012)

15

II. Regional Status Reports

Status of data collection, submission, and validation for the main survey

Status of data collection submission, and validation for the special surveys

Status of submission of NA data and metadata

Comments and feedback from countries on operational aspects

Upcoming regional events

16

III. Metadata and

Quality Questionnaires

ICP Survey Framework Questionnaire

NA Supplemental Quality Assurance Questionnaire

ICP Quality Assurance Checklists

17

ICP Survey Framework Questionnaire

Objectives

Demand-driven

Demand from Executive Board for more metadata on geographical coverage

Demand from TAG for systematic recording of country coverage, especially urban/rural

Demand from users of PPP data for better metadata to accompany data releases

Collect information on the Main Price Survey framework including population by region, outlets selected, product items priced, and data collection periods.

Examine exhaustiveness and reliability of collected price data. Use information in reviewing the quality of the survey as well

as for data validation and computation purposes.

Structure

Country name and comments

A. Population B. Outlets selected C. Items priced D. Collection periods

Example Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3

18

NA Supplemental Quality Assurance Questionnaire

Uses

Background

With more detailed technical questions, this questionnaire is meant to help national accountants identify specific SNA compliance issues.

It may or may not be relevant to other regions, depending on the status of implementation of SNA in the regions in question.

Structure Instructions Questionnaire (33 questions)

Proposed and used by Asia-Pacific. This questionnaire is designed to supplement, not replace,

the National Accounts Quality Assurance Questionnaire, which was already circulated to the Regional Coordinators.

19


A framework for assessing the quality of the ICP.

This framework will constitute a structured tool to evaluate the quality of:

ICP processes in countries, regional offices, and Global

Office

ICP data, including input data, intermediary

data and output data

ICP Quality Assurance Framework

Objectives

ICP-QAF checklists A set of questionnaires to help collect the information

required to evaluate the ICP based on the ICP-QAF framework.

Three sets of questionnaires:

National implementing agency

Regional coordinating agency

ICP Global Office

20


Structure Prerequisites of quality: review of the legal and

institutional environment

Integrity

Methodological soundness

Accuracy and reliability

Serviceability

Accessibility

Five dimensions of quality

Format

21

Simplified automated format

Instructions page

Available in 4 languages: English, French, Spanish, and Arabic

IV. Outstanding Items

For Special Surveys

Construction

Machinery and Equipment

Water

22

Construction Survey

OVERVIEW

of approach for Construction PPPs

Description of process to calculate the PPPs Item trees Codes

VALIDATION

of Construction Survey

Suggested process for intra and inter-country validation

Steps and checks to be carried out Additional information for validation Initial Resource Mixes

Draft Operational Guide chapter on Validation of the Construction and Civil Engineering Survey

has been finalized and circulated by the GO

The method for calculating construction PPPs and initial results of the survey will be further discussed at the forthcoming TAG meeting in September

23

Construction Survey

Step 1 Materials Sub-Heading: 38 material inputs

Equipment Sub-Heading: 5 types of equipment hire services

Labor Sub-Heading: 7 categories of construction labor

Establishment of Sub-Headings; selection of important items for each BH (Residential and Non-residential buildings and Civil engineering works) per country

Step 2 Sub-Headings to be treated as “Basic Headings”

PPPs to be calculated using CPD

Calculation of Sub-Heading PPPs

OVERVIEW of approach for Construction PPPs

24

Construction Survey

Step 3 Establishment of Sub-Heading Weights

Actual Levels Considered as Aggregate or BH Nominal

Expenditure (LCU)

RM Shares

RM weighted Nominal

Expenditure (LCU)

Aggregate Aggregate level GFCF 120

Category Aggregate level CONSTRUCTION 70

Group Aggregate level RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS 18

Class Aggregate level Residential buildings 18

BH Aggregate level Residential buildings

Sub-Heading Basic Heading Materials 70% 12.6

Sub-Heading Basic Heading Equipment 5% 0.9

Sub-Heading Basic Heading Labor 25% 4.5

25

Construction Survey

Step 4 Using the established Sub-Headings weights, the Sub-Heading PPPs can be aggregated to BH, Class, Group and finally up to the level of Construction Category, using the selected aggregation method (EKS, GK, Iklé)

Aggregation of PPPs

Step 5

Adjustment for productivity can be done by applying factors based on specific capital and productivity levels of a country

The work on the productivity adjustment in the 2011 ICP round is still ongoing and it will be discussed at the forthcoming TAG meeting in September

Adjustment for Productivity

26

Construction Survey

INTRA

country

validation Equivalent materials

Unit of measurement and dimensions

VALIDATION of Construction Survey

Prices

INTER

country

validation

RCs together with NCs, check the completeness and correctness of the

data submission and conduct validation of price and metadata across

countries

Initial Data Validation

Importance Other information

Completeness

NCs together with national construction experts verify completeness and

correctness of the information collected during the survey

Validation of price data using Validation Tables

Importance Resource Mixes Construction PPPs

Approximate Project Prices

Machinery and Equipment Survey

There is a need to split selected Machinery and Equipment Goods items

Unspecified items will be categorized to identify comparable brands and models

The Global Office recommends to split during the validation process

Data collected from the field will be used to confirm ex-ante splitting assumptions

Regrouping is possible especially when there is no clear demarcation

Only items similar to GCL ones will be retained for linking; others will remain region

28

Water Survey

Following requests from Regions, the Global Office has initiated the revision of the Water Tariff operation materials

The Objective was to simplify the data collection form and amend the Operational Guide where more clarification is needed

The new data collection form features the harmonization of issues related to taxes, especially the Value Added Tax (VAT) and Sales Tax

It requires the countries to submit actual bills as metadata for validation purposes together with Internet links (URL) to relevant utility companies web site for easy access and reference

An example of form is provided to show how to handle the calculation

It allows countries to provide data sources through

29

V. Regional Price Data Review

Process of data validation followed in each region

Tools used for data validation

Constrains/challenges faced

Presentation of the validation tables for the second quarter price data for selected basic headings

Lessons learned

30

VI. Global Validation

A. Price Data

Objectives

Issues reported

Summary Charts

Quality Indicators Graphs

Price Spreads by Regions

Outlier and Leverage Analysis

PLI Graphs

Summary of Issues by Region

31

Objectives

Input Data

All analysis carried out and presented are based on preliminary data submitted by the ICP Regional Coordinators

Substantial changes are expected to be introduced during the further validation process by the RCs and the participating countries

Present and discuss methods and approaches for data validation at the global level

Identify main areas for data quality improvements

Discuss plans for further validation activities

Presentation Objectives

32

Issues Reported

Data integrity issues Missing prices for many basic heading, classes, groups and

categories Duplicated item codes in average price files Reporting prices for regional basic headings (over the official 155)

Overall data quality Data sources (CPI) Item List issues (Number of GCL items vs. Number of regional

items) Reporting currency issues on average prices

Intra country validation

Data entry Errors (UoM, Decimal points, Currency Units) Low number of price quotations High variation coefficients Very low Min/Max Ratio Limit

33

Issues Reported

The feasibility of the linking approach

Choice of base country – Option to have the region as a base

High basic heading coefficient of variation for PPP Prices High variation of Exchange rate/ PPP Price Ratios Too wide ranges of Basic heading Price level index (BH

PLI) Importance of GCL items

Same for both Regional and Global comparisons? Brand levels

How to ensure consistent interpretation across regions?

Low comparability of services and/or possibly different approaches across regions E.g. telecommunication, air transport,

pharmaceuticals, medical services Reference PPP

Different regions have different BHs for which reference PPPs are used

Low coverage BHs (BHs with only a few GCL products ) Consider how to calculate the linking factors?

34

Summary Charts

35

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Africa LAC Asia W. Asia

Number of GCL Items for which x% of the countries collected prices

x

Summary Charts

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Africa LAC Asia W. Asia

Number of BHs for which x% of the countries collected prices

x

Summary Charts

37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Africa: Q1 Africa: Q2 LAC: Q1 LAC: Q2 Asia: Q1 Asia: Q2 WAS: Q1 WAS: Q2

17

12

10

12

5 6

29

24

Average number of GCL items with high CVs reported by country


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

GIN

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Number of Item Priced Africa- Q1

Total GCL

38


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Availabilty per Basic HeadingAfrica - Q1

GCL Regional List

39


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150

200

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Total items

Importance

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40


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Variation Coefficient per List Asia & Pacific - Q1

GCL Regional List

41


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5%

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Number of price quotations

Analysis of Price Quotations Latin America & Caribbean - Q1

Price quotations Single quotations

Share of single quotations

42


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

CV

Val

ue

Range of Coefficient of VariationLatin America & Caribbean - Q2

Low values (-) High values (+)

43


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Ga

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nts

Cle

an

ing

an

d …

Ma

inte

na

nce

of …

Ho

use

ho

ld te

xtile

sM

ajo

r to

ols a

nd

…P

ha

rma

ce

utic

al …

Ph

arm

ac

eu

tic

al …

The

rap

eu

tic

…M

ain

ten

an

ce

of …

Au

dio

-visu

al, …

Ne

wsp

ap

ers

, books

…P

ers

on

al c

are

…

CV Values

Variation Coefficient per List Western Asia- Q1

GCL Regional List

44


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

CV

Val

ue

Range of Coefficient of VariationWestern Asia - Q2

Low values (-) High values (+)45

Price Spreads by Region

46

Egypt

Liberia

Cuba Uruguay Maldives Taiwan, Province of

China Oman

Palestinian Territory 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

110112101 - Beef, Fillet

Africa LAC Asia WAS

Helps detect major outliers


47

Egypt

Gabon

Cuba

Uruguay Maldives

Taiwan, Province of China

Oman

Palestinian Territory

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

110112101 - Beef, Fillet

Africa LAC Asia WAS

Mauritius

Once major outliers are excluded from analysis, other outliers appear.


48

Morocco

Tunisia

Cuba

Uruguay

Brunei Darussalam

Myanmar


United Arab Emirates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

110112104 - Beef, for stew or curry

Africa LAC Asia WAS

Helps analyze whether regional average prices are close, and detect quality differential across regions.


49

Egypt

Gabon

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Myanmar

Philippines

Iraq


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

110321103 – Men’s Nike/Adidas/Asics Sports Shoes

Africa LAC Asia WAS

Helps detect issues of pricing original vs. imitation


50

Congo

Kenya

Nicaragua

Paraguay

Myanmar

Thailand

Oman


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

110111305 - Sliced White bread

Africa LAC Asia WAS

Helps detect error is product code conversions.


51

Burkina Faso

Algeria

Brazil

Cuba Myanmar

Taiwan, Province of China Iraq

Jordan 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 110732103 - Interurban Bus (InterCity Bus) - 50 Km

Africa LAC Asia WAS

Helps detect major outliers


52

Burkina Faso

Algeria

Cuba

Haiti

Myanmar

Taiwan, Province of China

Iraq

Jordan

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

110732103 - Interurban Bus (InterCity Bus) - 50 Km

Africa LAC Asia WAS

Once major outliers are excluded from analysis, other outliers appear.


Overall price level for Oman is 0.78

Price levels for BHs 1104411 (Water) and 1104511 (Electricity) are very low and are pushing down the overall price level

The two Oman BHs are showing as extreme negative residuals . Their leverage is not significant, that is, they do not appear to deviate significantly from their mean, probably because the mean is also low.

53 Source: Validation Report by Bettina Aten, VEG member


However, at least one of the Oman BHs has an extremely high influence on its predicted value, and another one is also significantly influential as seen by their Cook’s D statistics, which measures the influence once that observation is removed.



This anomalous set of Item prices for Oman in BH 1104511 (Electricity) is seen more easily in graph form, where each country is on the horizontal axis and the log of the price relative is on the vertical axis.


PLI Graphs

…and taking ratio of A/B:

If > 1, GCL PLIs are lower than regional PLIs

If < 1, GCL PLIs are higher than the regional PLIs

If 1, PLIs for both lists are identical

These ratios can be analyzed by studying:

Spread of ratios over the BHs across the countries

Geomean of all ratios and minimum and maximum ratios for a

country

Number of ratios below and above certain thresholds

CV of ratios for a country

To evaluate feasibility and plausibility of the Global Core List approach, we can compare BH and overall PLIs calculated:

…based on: All items (A)

Global Core List items (B)

CPD, Region = 1

56

PLI Graphs

Test how well the GCL items represent the regional PPPs

Identify potential problems with priced GCL and regional

items, in case these have not been identified during earlier

validation

Note: PLI Ratios do not detect cases where problems are

associated to both GCL and regional items

The aim is to present and discuss the approach

No concrete conclusions are to be derived from this

presentation

The graphs presented

are based on

preliminary price data

Comparison of PLI

Ratios can be used to

If outlier GCL PLIs are indentified, and validation

cannot solve these cases, the respective BH PPPs may

need to be deleted (??)

57

PLI Graphs

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 20 40 60 80 100

ESCWA, Q1 Iraq Jordan Oman

Palestinian Territory Qatar United Arab Emirates UAE: Gardens and pets Regional PLI 2.21 times higher than GCL PLI Reason: Extreme price variation within the BH

Qatar: Gardens and pets Regional PLI 0.24 times lower than GCL PLI Reason: Extreme price variation within the BH

UAE: Electricity Regional PLI 1.89 times higher than GCL PLI Reason: Problematic BH due to reference quantities

Qatar: Fuels Regional PLI 1.63 times higher than the GCL PLI Reason: One extreme regional item

58

PLI Graphs

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

ESCWA , Q2 Bahrain Iraq Jordan Kuwait Oman Palestinian Territory Qatar United Arab Emirates Yemen

59

PLI Graphs

Indicator Bahrain Iraq Jordan Kuwait Oman

Geomean 1.29 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.08

Min 0.40 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32

# Below 0.75 11 26 30 27 23

Max 20245.50 13570.90 11855.26 20245.56 23639.68

# Above 1.33 7 12 12 12 13

CV 241936 136307 123604 207831 228634

Indicator Palestinian

Territory Qatar UAE Yemen Total

Geomean 1.02 1.09 1.04 0.88

Min 0.23 0.32 0.32 0.07

# Below 0.75 30 22 26 23 218

Max 23302.81 20245.52 38377.79 7.04

# Above 1.33 9 14 10 9 98

CV 240697 204267 384841 95 60

Summary of Issues by Region AF AS LAC WA TOTAL

Data integrity issues 2 1 0 1 4

Missing prices for many Basic Headings, Classes, Groups, and Categories √ 1

Duplicated item codes in average price files √ √ 2

Reporting prices for regional basic headings (over the official 155) √ 1

Overall data quality 2 1 2 0 5

Data sources (CPI) √ √ 2

Item List issues (Number of GCL items vs. Number of regional items) √ 1

Reporting currency issues on average prices √ √ 2

Intra country validation 3 0 2 2 7

Data entry Errors (UoM, Decimal points, Currency Units) √ √ 2

Low number of price quotations √ 1

High price observation variation coefficients √ √ √ 3

Inter country validation 4 1 3 4 12

Choice of base country (Option to have the region as a base) √ √ √ √ 4

High BH variation coefficients (dispersion of PPP-Ratios for a BH) √ √ √ 3

High country variation coefficients (dispersion of PPP-Ratios for a country) √ √ √ 3

High variation of Basic Heading Price level indices (BH PLIs) √ √ 2

Importance information (too soon to conclude)

TOTAL 11 3 7 7 28

61


B. Expenditures

Objective and Methodology

Overall Summary of Findings

Household Consumption

Government

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Problematic Basic Headings

Misreported Basic Headings

62

Objective and Methodology

Data/Information Needed Each country’s 2009 and 2005 Data

National Accounts Data (GDP Expenditure by BH)

Population figure

Exchange Rate

Regional country clustering

Conduct GDP Expenditure temporal Analysis on country and regional level for 2009 and 2005

Relevant ICP Reference ICP Classification (ICP Operational Guide 2.2)

Information on the ICP Classification

(ICP Operational Material B.1.07)

Steps Country Level Analysis

Validate SNA Compliance for both 2009 and 2005

Temporal Analysis

Regional Level Analysis

GDP structures or country shares

Per Capita expenditures for HHC

Regional Level Temporal Analysis

63

Overall Summary of Findings

Asia

Africa

CIS

LAC

WA

Caribbean

Pacific Isl.

Singleton

0

5

30

8

10

1

…

…

1

< 0

1

2

1

2

…

…

…

1

> 0

2

9

1

1

…

…

…

…

12

47

…

5

8

…

…

1

8

18

5

4

5

…

…

1

1

10

3

4

4

…

…

1

(*)

64

Maximum number of countries

that fail the criteria

S>5% Skew St. Skew pc


that comply the criteria

(*) 0 :Should Be Non Zero; S>5%: Share > 5% of GDP;

St. : Variation of structure; pc: Variation of per capita values

Household Consumption

Asia

Africa

CIS

LAC

WA

Caribbean

Pacific Isl.

Singleton

4

22

6

6

1

…

…

1

1

2

1

…

…

…

…

…

1

3

…

…

…

…

…

…

12

47

…

5

8

…

…

1

6

16

5

4

5

…

…

1

1

10

3

4

4

…

…

1

(*)



65

0 < 0 > 0






Government

Asia

Africa

CIS

LAC

WA

Caribbean

Pacific Isl.

Singleton

5

30

8

10

1

…

…

1

…

1

1

1

…

…

…

…

1

1

…

1

…

…

…

…

11

47

…

4

6

…

…

1

4

9

4

2

4

…

…

1

…

5

…

1

3

…

…

1

(*)

66

0 < 0 > 0








Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Asia

Africa

CIS

LAC

WA

Caribbean

Pacific Isl.

Singleton

2

2

1

10

1

…

…

…

…

…

…

2

…

…

…

…

…

1

…

1

…

…

…

…

11

47

…

5

6

…

…

1

7

18

4

4

2

…

…

…

1

9

1

4

1

…

…

1

(*)

67

0 < 0 > 0








Problematic Basic Headings

68

1102311 Narcotics

1112211 Prostitution

1112611 FISIM

1113111

Purchases by residential households in the rest of

the world

1113112

Purchases by non-residential households in the

economic territory of the country

1201111 Individual consumption expenditures by NPISHs

1301111 Housing

1302111 Pharmaceutical products

1302112 Other medical products

1302113 Therapeutic appliances and equipment

1302121 Out-patient medical services

1302122 Out-patient dental services

1302123 Out-patient paramedical services

1302124 Hospital services

1302221 Intermediate consumption

1302241 Net taxes on production

1302251 Receipts from sales

1303111 Recreation and culture

1304111 Education benefits and reimbursements


1304231 Gross operating surplus


1304251 Receipt from sales

1305111 Social protection


1401131 Gross operating surplus


1401151 Receipts from sales

1601111 Opening value of inventories

1601112 Closing value of inventories

1602111 Acquisitions of valuables

1602112 Disposals of valuables

1302231 Gross operating surplus Codes Heading

The following items have been reported to be problematic during previous ICP rounds

Misreported Items

Should Be Non Zero

Should Be Negative

Should Be Positive

A basic headings is referred to as misreported if it fails to satisfy any of the criteria below

We performed an assessment of misreported items per region and our findings are summarized in the following Excel table…

Misreported items should be corrected before the MORES are transmitted to the Regional Office for processing.

69


C. Importance

70

Priced GCL items – Overlap between regions

Priced GCL items – Overlap across 4 regional lists

Basic Heading Level Summary Statistics

Product Level Summary Statistics

Improvement for Importance Indicators

Priced GCL items – overlap between regions

Total 618

Africa

Asia

Latin America

Western Asia

Africa

573

371

421

573

Asia

371

403

401

394

Latin America

421

401

445

445

Western Asia

573

394

445

608

71

Priced GCL items - Overlap across 4 regional lists

In all 4 lists In 3 lists In 2 lists In 1 list*

291 222 85 8

*GCL products that are only on 1/4 list (except Fast-Evolving Technology Products): 110211104 Bailey's Irish Cream 110212102 Red wine, Bordeaux Supérieur 110312127 Boy's Corduroy Pants 111231101 Children's wrist-watch (Only WA has prices for these)

72

Basic Heading Level Summary Statistics (a) BH level coverage of priced GCL items:

BH Coverage Africa* (47) Asia (23) LAC (17) Western Asia

(11)

82-92 BHs (Approx. 91-100% covered)

19% (9) 61% (14) 28% (5) 73% (8)


11% (5) 26% (6) 11% (2) 18% (2)


32% (15) 13% (3) 39% (7) 0%


36% (17) 0% 17% (3) 9% (1)


2% (1) 0% 5% (1) 0%

Average Coverage 55BHs 81BHs 60BHs 82BH

*Percentage share of countries in the coverage range (The number of countries). - Total number of BHs in GCL is 92. - Africa’s data based on Q1 and Q2 data submission. Others based on the Q2 submission. 73

Percentage of Countries in the region by the level of BH coverage

Basic Heading Level Summary Statistics

(b) BH level coverage of important GCL items:

BH Coverage Africa* (47) Asia (23) LAC (17) Western Asia

(11)


13% (6) 0% 0% (5) 27% (3)


4% (2) 52% (12) 12% (2) 18% (2)


23% (11) 39% (9) 29% (7) 36% (4)


34% (16) 9% (2) 47% (3) 18% (2)


26% (12) 0% 12% (1) 0%

Average Coverage 40BHs 68BHs 42BHs 65BH

*Percentage share of countries in the coverage range (The number of countries). - Total number of BHs in GCL is 92. - Africa’s data based on Q1 and Q2 data submission. Others based on the Q2 submission. 74

Percentage of Countries in the region by the level of BH coverage


75

(a) GCL Product level:

Imp / Priced Africa* (47) Asia (23) LAC* (17) Western Asia (11)

100% ≧ x >90% 14 5 2 1

90% ≧ x >80% 6 5 4 1 80% ≧ x >70% 6 4 0 2 70% ≧ x >60% 3 4 4 1 60% ≧ x >50% 6 2 2 1 50% ≧ x >0% 3 3 3 5

Regional Average 57% 76% 74% 52%

Ratio of Important items over Priced items*


76

(b) GCL Product level: Priced in only 1 country or not available in any country in the region Important to only 1 country in the region

Africa Asia LAC Western Asia

Priced in 1 or 0 country

3 26 39 5

Important in 1 country

0 26 103 7

Improvement for Importance Indicators

(3) Check the products with # of obs. higher than the country's average

(4) Check neighboring countries (with similar economic structures, geographical location, etc.)

Suggest to country that this product may be important

Suggest to countries modifying their importance indicators based on findings from neighboring countries

(1) Check whether each basic heading has important item (Country level)

Identify at least 1 item as important per BH

(2) Check whether each item is declared important in at least 1 country (Regional level)

For each product, identify at least one country in the region where the product is important

Solutions to be considered:

77

VII. Upcoming Activities

And Next Steps

Major Milestones and Activities for 2012 and 2013

Timetable HHC Data Submission

Timetable NA Data Submission

Timetable for Special Surveys

Timetable for Computation of preliminary PPPs

78

Major Milestones and Activities for 2012

June

August

July

September

Submission of 3rd and 4th quarters price data for LAC/Asia/Africa/WA (end June) and GO computation of approximate Nat. Ann. Averages + Regional PPPs

for LAC/Asia/Africa/WA (mid July)

Or

Submission of preliminary Nat. Ann. Average data + Regional PPPs for

LAC/Asia/Africa/WA (end June / mid July)

Submission of Nat. Ann. Average data + Preliminary Regional PPPs for

OECD/Eurostat and CIS (end June / mid July)

Transmission of preliminary data to CoTaf/VEG (end July)

TAG, RC, CoTaf and VEG meetings (September)

Testing of methods and preliminary results (August)

Consolidate TAG recommendations and include in report to the Executive Board

(September-October)

Executive Board meeting (November)

Report to UNSC (November)

October

2012

Interim Report to the Executive Board (beginning July)

79

November

Major Milestones and Activities for 2013

Jan-Mar

April

June

Sep-Nov

Submission of final national annual average price data for all regions

Submission of preliminary 2011 national accounts data

Submission of FINAL FINAL data

Executive Board meeting

Report to UNSC

2013

Interim Report to the Executive Board

80

November

RC/TAG/VEG/CoTaf meetings

February Executive Board meeting

Release of Global PPPs data December

September RC/TAG/VEG/CoTaf meetings

May-Aug Submission of data updates

Timetable HHC Data Submission

81

HHC Data Africa Asia CIS LA CA WA Pacific Eurostat-

OECD Singl.

Q3 2011 Aug’12 Jul’12 Jan’12 Jan’12 Nov’12

Q4 2011 Aug’12 Jul’12 Jun’12 May’12 Jun’12 Nov’12

Q1 2012 Aug’12 May’12 Jul’12 Jul’12

Q2 2012 Aug’12 Aug’12 Sep’12 Sep’12

Q3 2012 Nov’12 Nov’12 Dec’12

Q4 2012 Feb’13 Jan’13 Mar’13

Annual Jan’13 Mar’13 Jun’12 (P) Dec’12 Feb’13 Jan’13 Jun’13 Jun’12 (P) Dec’12

Timetable NA Data Submission

82

National Accounts Africa Asia CIS LA CA WA Pacific Eurostat-

OECD Singl.

LATEST YEAR

Basic Heading

Final Aug’12 Dec’11 Dec’11 Dec’11 Jul’12 Feb’12 N/A Mar’12

REFERENCE YEAR

Major Aggregates

Premilinary Dec’12 Dec’12 Apr’13 Dec’12 Mar’13 Dec’12 N/A Dec’12

Final Jun’13 Jun’13 Dec’13 May’13 Jul’13 May’13 N/A Dec’13 Dec’12

Basic Heading

Premilinary Dec’12 Dec’12 Apr’13 Dec’12 Mar’13 Dec’12 N/A Dec’12

Final Jun’13 Jun’13 Dec’13 May’13 Jul’13 May’13 N/A Dec’13 Dec’12


83

ICP Component Africa Asia CIS LA

Survey Subm. Survey Subm. Survey Subm. Survey Subm.

Water

2011 2012 Dec’12 2012 Dec’12


2011 Q3’12 Q4’12 Q4’11 Dec’12 2011 May’12 Q4’11 Jun’12

Construction

2011 Q3’12 Q4’12 Q3’11 Dec’12 2011 May’12 Q3’11 Jul’12

Housing

Rents Q3’12 Q4’12 2011 Sep’12 2011 Jun’12

Quantity Q3’12 Q4’12 2012 Sep’12 2012 Dec’12 2012 Jul’12

Compensation

LY Q1’12 Jul’12 Q1’12 Sep’12

2011 Q3’12 Q4’12 Q4’12 Apr’13 2012 Dec’12 Q4’12 Apr’13

Private Education

2011 Q2’12 Q3’12 Q1’12 Jul’12 Q1’12 Jul’12


84

ICP Component Caribbean WA Eurostat-OECD Singletons

Survey Subm. Survey Subm. Survey Subm. Survey Subm.

Water

2011 2012 Dec’12 2012 Dec’12


2011 Q3’12 Dec’12 Q4’11 Jun’12 2011 Jun’12 Q4’12 Dec’12

Construction

2011 Q4’12 Dec’12 Q4’11 Jul’12 2011 Oct’11 Q4’12 Dec’12

Housing

Rents Q3’12 Dec’12 2011 Apr’12

Quantity Q4’12 Mar’13 2012 Dec’12 2012 Dec’12 (P) Q3’12 Dec’12

Compensation

LY Q1’12 Jul’12

2011 Q4’12 Mar’13 Q4’12 Apr’13 2012 Dec’12 (P) Q3’12 Dec’12

Private Education

2011 May’12 Jul’12 Q1’12 Jul’12

Timetable for Computation of PPPs

85

ICP Data Submissions 2012 2013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

HHC Preliminary Price Data Submission

NA LY Data Submission

Calculation of Preliminary HHC PPPs

Private Education Data Submission

Machinery and Equipment Data Submission

Construction Data Submission

Housing Data Submission

HHC Final Price Data Submission

NA 2011 Preliminary Data Submission

Compensation Data Submission

Calculation of GDP Preliminary PPPs

NA 2011 Final Data Submission

Calculation of Final PPPs

VIII. Recap of Meeting Decisions

86

Meeting Decisions

87

Data Validation Recommendations

Thorough intra- and inter-validation needed at regional level with focus on BHs with high NA Expenditures

Calculation of annual averages to be discussed at next RC meeting Build complete tableau of price, NA, and importance data

availability by country Indicate major BHs where many countries in a region did not

price GCL items

Metadata Questionnaires

Survey Framework Questionnaire to be circulated in 4 languages to countries (prefilled with available info) and completed by Dec. 2012

Quality Assurance Checklists to be circulated in 4 languages Country Checklist to be completed by Mar. 2013 Region Checklist to be completed by Dec. 2013 GO Checklist to be completed by Mar. 2014

NA QA supplementary questionnaire proposed by Asia very useful but optional to other regions

Special Surveys Construction: Productivity adjustment yet to be discussed by TAG Equipment: GO to examine item splitting done by regions

Meeting Decisions

88

Immediate Data Submission Deadlines

End June: submission of preliminary HHC average price data (shop items) + preliminary LY NA data + validated importance indicators

Aug 10, 2012: final deadline for submitting updated HHC average price data (shop items) + preliminary LY NA data + validated importance indicators

National Accounts Proposal for Operational BH Classification to be provided by

the GO in September for discussion at the RC meeting RCs will decide whether the Operational Classification, if

approved, should be conveyed to TAG and EB for information

Importance Validation of importance indicators to be conducted before next

RC meeting GO to send to RCs guidance on validating importance

Meeting Decisions

89

Upcoming Meetings and Major Activities

TAG meeting: 17-18 September 2012, to be attended by RCs RC meeting: 19-21 September 2012:

presentation on global validation findings and recommendations

agreement will be reached as when the RCs will submit updated/improved data based on VEG/GO findings or confirm data

VEG and GO to thoroughly validate data (Jul-Aug) and submit findings to RCs before next RC meeting

TAG and CoTaf to thoroughly test linking methods, importance, and extra/under pricing of GCL items before their next meeting

GO to report to EB in November 2012 on TAG findings and risk assessment

GO reminders

GO to send data submission formats GO to ask RCs for the size of their matrix (number of items and

countries) GO to circulate meeting minutes

Data and Metadata for VEG and CoTaF

List of data and metadata to be provided to the Validation Expert Group (VEG) and

Computation Task Force (CoTaF) for the validation, testing of methods, and computation of

preliminary results:

Validated quarterly/annual average prices for both Global Core and Regional items

(national, sub-national, urban/rural)

Information on availability and importance

Validation tables including validation indicators (Number of price quotations, Min prices,

Max prices, Min/Max price rations, Variation coefficients and Outlier indicators)

Preliminary PPPs by the ICP Classification

Local currencies and quarterly/annual average exchange rates of local currencies

Population, for the latest available year

Major Aggregates for the latest year

Basic Heading expenditure values and underlying metadata (MORES) for the latest year

GDP Exhaustiveness questionnaire

NA Quality Assurance questionnaire

90

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