the almond aflatoxin menace: addressing it head on...(ppb) 2007 15,022 0.48 2008 13,208 0.45 2009...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE ALMOND AFLATOXIN MENACE: ADDRESSING
IT HEAD ON ROOM 306-307 | DECEMBER 4, 2018
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• Tim Birmingham, Almond Board
of California, moderator
• Tom Whitaker, NC State / USDA
2
AGENDA
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The Aflatoxin Menace
- Addressing Head on -
Tom WhitakerUSDA/ARS Retired
Professor Emeritus
NC State University
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Aspergillus flavus
4
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Almonds
US - 20 T
Canada
15 T
EU
10 T / 8 B1
Japan
10 T
Mexico
20 T
12%
50%
30%
4%
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Customer
ImporterUS
Exporter
Aflatoxin Concentration = ?
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ABC Staff & Industry Have Been
Proactive in Developing Programs that
Produce Information to Better Manage
Aflatoxin
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Aflatoxin Studies
1) Aflatoxin Risk Categories
2) Sorting Efficiency
3) Sample Accuracy and Precision
4) Codex Aflatoxin Standard MLs/Samp Plans/Tree nut
5) B1/Total Aflatoxins Ratio
6) VASP/PEC – EU
7) Aflatoxin by Product Category
8) Method to Reduce Lots Rejected at Destination
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Aflatoxin Risk Categories
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Where is the Aflatoxin?
• Poor vs good quality nuts
• Grade factors
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Average of 50 Lots
Grade
Category
Weight
(%)
Aflatoxin
(%)
High Quality 83.7 3.2
Mechanical 7.4 7.9
Insect 7.2 76.3
Other defect 1.5 11.8
Mold 0.2 0.8
Total 100.0 100.0
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Average of 50 Lots
Grade
Category
Weight
(%)
Aflatoxin
(%)
High Quality 83.7 3.2
Poor Quality 16.3 96.8
Total 100.0 100.0
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Efficiency of Electronic and
Hand Sorting at Removing
Aflatoxin Contaminated
Almonds
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Input
Laser Sorter
Accept
Hand Sort
Accept
Reject
Reject
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Lot 1 - Input
Laser Sorter
Accept 2.1 ng/g
Hand Sort
Accept 1.5 ng/g
Reject (3.1 %wt)
2.9 ng/g
29.1 ng/g
Reject (1.9 %wt)40.3 ng/g
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Avg Aflat. In Lots Exiting HandlerCrop
Year
Lots
Tested
Aflat.
(ppb)
2007 15,022 0.48
2008 13,208 0.45
2009 10,007 0.59
2010 12,611 0.32
2011 13,580 0.27
2012 13,700 0.38
2013 15,028 0.33
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VASP/PEC
Industry-wide export
aflatoxin sampling program
to reduce the number of U.S.
lots rejected by the EU
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US Export Aflatoxin Sampling
Plan (VASP) RTE Almond Lots
Year U.S. Plan EU
Limit
2007-10 3x5 kg ≤ 2T 2B1/4T
EU Plan before March 2010 - 3x10 kg ≤ 2B1/4T
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Codex Standard for Tree Nuts
ML & Sampling Plan (2010)
RTE: 2x10kg<10 ppb T
DFP: 1x20kg<15 ppb T
T=Total aflatoxins - No B1
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EU adds B1 ML to Codex Std
Ratio B1/Total Aflatoxin
Total=B1+B2+G1+G2
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B1/Total Ratio
▪ Samples Tested – 2,656 (T >0.5 ppb)
▪ Mean Ratio (%) - 86.4
▪ Median Ratio (%) - 100.0
▪ Distribution - Negatively Skewed
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US Export Aflatoxin Sampling
Plan (VASP) RTE Almond Lots
Year U.S. Plan EU
Limit
< 2010 3x5 kg ≤ 2T 2B1/4T
>2010 2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T 8B1/10T
EU Before March 2010 - 3x10 kg ≤ 2B1/4T
EU After March 2010 - 2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T
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VASP % Lots Accepted & RejectedCrop
Year
Lots
Tested
Accept
(%)
Reject
(%)
2007 15,022 94.77 5.23
2008 13,208 95.33 4.67
2009 10,007 94.87 5.13
2010 12,611 98.72 1.29
2011 13,580 98.88 1.12
2012 13,700 98.41 1.59
2013 15,028 98.76 1.24
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Sampling Studies
How accurately and precisely does
sample ppb estimate the true lot ppb?
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(20,000 kg)
ppb=?
Sample
(10 kg)
• Lot ppb = Sample ppb ?
• Sample ppb Regulatory Limit
ppb
Lot
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Lot 10
Mean = 22
Median = 3
CV = 138%
0
0
1
1
1
12 2 4
1722
36
99
73
55
40
16x10 kg Almonds Samples
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Mill
Sample Sample Analysis
Test Procedure
Lot
Sample Test Result
Preparation
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Almond Lot Aflatoxin = 10 ppb
Test
Procedure
Size Variance Ratio
(%)
Sample-kg 10 209.6 94.4
Test Port.-g 100 12.0 5.4
HPLC-Aliq 1 0.4 0.2
Total 222.0 100.0
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Variability Leads to
Misclassification of Lots
• Good lots rejected
– (Exporter’s risk)
• Bad lots accepted
– (Importer’s risk)
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Lot 10
Mean = 22
Median = 3
CV = 138%
0
0
1
1
1
12 2 4
1722
36
99
73
55
40
16x10 kg Almonds Samples
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Sampling Plan Evaluation Method(OC Development)
Test Procedure
Variability
Distribution
Theory
Seller’s Risk
Buyer’s Risk
Total Lots Rej
Mytox. Removed
Acc/Rej Limit
(Reg Limit)
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Lot Aflatoxin Concentration (ng/g)
Pro
babili
ty o
f A
ccept
(%)
Tolerance
3x10 kg ≤ 4T/2B1
2x10 ≤ 8B1/10T
EU Plan-Shelled Almonds
2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T
3x10 kg ≤ 2B1/4T
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FAO Mycotoxin Sampling Tool(Food Safety Risk Analysis Tools)
*Based upon USDA/ARS Model
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http://www.fstools.org/mycotoxins/
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Develop a method to predict the
number of U.S. almond lots rejected
by the EU at destination
Rejects reflect:
1) Aflatoxin level in lots tested in US
2) Design of US export sampling plan
3) Design of EU import sampling plan
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Objectives
1) Determine effect of U.S. aflatoxin levels and
PEC sampling plan on lot rejected in the EU
2) Using PEC sample test results, predict at
time of U.S. testing the % US lots that will be
rejected at a later date in the EU
3) Modify PEC sampling plan to keep U.S. lots
rejected in the EU to acceptable levels35
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Aflatoxin Distribution Among Lots
At Origin
U.S. Aflatoxin Export
Sampling Plan (100%)
Lots Accepted for Export
To EU
Lots Rejected
At Origin
EU Aflatoxin Sampling Plan
(1-10% Testing Rate)
Lots Accepted
At Destination
Lots Rejected
At Destination
A
B
C
D
F
G
E
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70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Lot Aflatoxin Concentration (ng/g AFT)
Cu
mu
lati
ve F
req
. D
ist.
(%
)2008 crop – 0.45 ng/g AFT
2006 crop – 1.26 ng/g AFT
hypothetical crop – 3.00 ng/g AFT
hypothetical crop – 6.00 ng/g AFT
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US1/EU 2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T
US2 2x10 kg ≤ 8T
US3 2x10 kg ≤ 6T
US4 2x10 kg ≤ 4T
US5 2x10 kg ≤ 2T
US6 2x10 kg ≤ 0.5T
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Lot Aflatoxin Concentration (ng/g AFT)
Accep
t P
rob
ab
ilit
y (
%)
#1-2x10 ≤ 10T/8B1
#2-2x10 ≤ 8T
#3-2x10 ≤ 6T
#4-2x10 ≤ 4T
#5-2x10 ≤ 2T
#6-2x10 ≤ 0.5T
VASP Sampling Plans for Shelled Almonds
#6#5
#4#3 #2 #1
EU
AF
T lim
it
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US Plans
2x10 kg
US Lot Contamination (ppb)
0.42 1.26 3.00 6.00
8B1 / 10T
8T
6T
4T
2T
0.5T
▪ % lots acc/rej in US
▪ Avg. AFT in acc/rej lots in US
▪ % lots acc/rej in EU
▪ Avg. AF in acc/rej lots in EU
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Aflatoxin Distribution Among Lots
11,465 (1.26 ppb)
PEC Sampling Plan (100%)
2 x 10 kg ≤ 8B1 / 10T
Lots Accepted for Export
11,000 (0.38 ppb)
Lots Rejected (4.1%)
465 (23.82 ppb)
EU Sampling Plan (5%=550)
2 x 10 kg ≤ 8B1 / 10T
Lots Accepted
10,991 (0.25 ppb)
Lots Rejected (9 lots)
1.54% (8.89 ppb)
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US Aflat Level
(ppb)
US Rej
(%)
Avg Aflat
in Exports
(ppb)
Rej in EU
(%)
0.42 1.36 0.15 0.51
1.26 4.06 0.38 1.54
3.00 9.31 0.77 3.56
6.00 17.66 1.44 6.94
US=2x10kg<8B1/10T
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All Almond Crops and VASP
100% US Testing
EU Testing 2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T
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2010 Crop Contamination By Product Category
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Brownskin Fancy
Blanched Whole
Inshell
Brownskin W & B
Brownskin ExNo1
Blanched W & B
Blanched Pieces
Brownskin US No1
Brownskin Std SR 2%
Mfg Blanched
Brownskin (SSR)
Brownskin Std SR 5%
Brownskin Pieces
Mfg Natural
Lots Rejected in U.S. (%)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Avg Aflatoxin (ppb)
Reject in U.S. (%)
Avg Aflatoxin (ppb)
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US Aflat Level
(ppb)
US Rej
(%)
Avg Aflat
in Exports
(ppb)
Rej in EU
(%)
0.42 1.36 0.15 0.51
1.26 4.06 0.38 1.54
3.00 9.31 0.77 3.56
6.00 17.66 1.44 6.94
US=2x10kg<8B1/10T
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Lots
re
ject
ed
in
th
ee
EU
-(%
)
Lots rejected in the US - (%)
Rej in EU (%) = 0.39 * Rej in US (%)US using 2x10kg<8B1/10T
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US Lots Rejected in EU (%)
US Plans
2x10 kg
US Lot Contamination (ng/g)
0.42 1.26 3.00 6.00
8B1 / 10T 0.51 1.54 3.56 6.94
8T 0.48 1.46 3.38 6.54
6T 0.42 1.26 2.92 5.74
4T 0.34 1.03 2.38 4.71
2T 0.24 0.73 1.69 3.37
0.5T 0.13 0.40 0.91 1.85
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Aflatoxin Distribution Among Lots
At Origin
U.S. Aflatoxin Export
Sampling Plan (100%)
Lots Accepted for Export
To EU
Lots Rejected
At Origin
EU Aflatoxin Sampling Plan
2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T
Lots Accepted
At Destination
Lots Rejected
At Destination-RAFF
A
B
C
D
F
G
E
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Lot Rejected in US (%)
Lo
ts R
eje
cte
d i
n E
U (
%)
US Testing Plan 2x10 kg, A/R Level Shown
100% US Testing
EU 2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T2x10 kg ≤ 8B1/10T
2x10 kg ≤ 8T
2x10 kg ≤ 6T
2x10 kg ≤ 4T
2x10 kg ≤ 2T
2x10 kg ≤ 0.5T
6.0 ng/g
3.0 ng/g
1.26 ng/g
0.48 ng/g
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Avg. Afla
(all lots
tested
Avg. Afla
(Failed
Lots)
Avg. Afla
(Accepte
d Lots)
2015 (15/16) 13870 13644 226 1.63% 98.37% 0.63 19.89 0.24 1.30%
2016 (16/17) 14648 14387 261 1.78% 98.22% 0.59 17.68 0.24 1.20%
2017 (17/18) 15224 14263 961 6.31% 93.69% 1.48 17.73 0.35 2.40%
2018 (18/19) 1499 1409 90 6.00% 94.00% 1.05 13.09 0.29 1.70%
% Insect
Damage
Aflatoxin Levels (PPB
Crop (CY)
# Lots
Tested
# Lots
Accepted
# Lots
Failed % Failed % Accept
2015 to 2017 –> 2x10kg<8B1/10T
2018 -> 2x10kg<5T
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US Aflat Level
(ppb)
US Rej
(%)
Avg Aflat
in Exports
(ppb)
Rej in EU
(%)
0.42 1.36 0.15 0.51
1.26 4.06 0.38 1.54
3.00 9.31 0.77 3.56
6.00 17.66 1.44 6.94
US=2x10kg<8B1/10T
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Thank you!