the american civil war as a “revolution” a presentation by roger ransom university of...
TRANSCRIPT
THE AMERICAN CIVIL WARAS A “REVOLUTION”
A Presentation by
Roger Ransom
University of California, Riverside
CONFLICTING VISIONS:
Objective 1:
Discuss My Research Dealing With
Economic Interpretations Of The Civil War
Drawing on My Expertise as a Cliometrician
Clio = Muse of HistoryMetrics = Quantitative Measurement
This Is Interesting Stuff [To Me..]
But Your Students May Find It A Bit “Boring”
Discuss An Imaginary World Where The South Won The Civil War !
Objective 2:
This is Called Counterfactual Historyor Alternate History
A Game That I First Played In The 1950s
… And More Recently As an Author
Two Things Middle School Kids Like:
Imagination
Maps!
How To Explain The Civil War?
The Cause Of The War Was Economic Change
Industrial Change In The Northern States… With A Rapidly Expanding Population
Agrarian Society In The Southern States … Tied To A System Of Slavery And Cotton
To Charles And Mary Beard:
By The 1850s The North Had Gained AnEconomic And Political Dominance
That Threatened The Southern “Way Of Life”
The War Was A Second American Revolution
The Beards Claimed The Civil War Was
“An Irrepressible Conflict”
In The 1960s Cliometricians Pointed Out Developments
That Seemed To Undermine Beards’ Explanation
First Was The Fact That The Southern States Were
NOT An “Economically Backward” Region
How To Explain The Civil War?
Southern Cotton is shipped to Great Britain and Europe. These exports financeimports into the Southand the rest of the U.S.
South buys manufacturesfrom abroad and shippingServices from the North.North buys cotton, sugarand tobacco from South.
West ships foodstuffs to the South.
West ships foodstuffs to the North In exchange for manufactures. This trade expanded rapidly after The Erie Canal is finished in 1826.
The South was a Major Source of Economic Growth for The National Economy
How to Explain the Civil War?
The Beards Claimed The Civil War Was A Conflict Between: A Dynamic Northern Economy That Was Industrializing
and A Southern Economy That Was Lagging Behind
But Our Analysis Suggests That The South Was NOT Lagging Behind
BOTH SIDES Were Doing Well Economically In 1860
BOTH SIDES Had A Lot To Lose And Very Little ToGain Economically From A Disruptive War
How to Explain the Civil War?
War That Would Seriously Disrupt Trade In ALL Regions
What to Make of All This?
Historians: Economic Factors Were NOT An Important Cause of the War
Problem: Then What Did Cause the Civil War?
Answer: No One Seems to Know …
Maybe The War Was A Tragic Mistake Caused byA Blundering Generation of Leaders …
Economic Historians: Don’t Argue with this ConclusionThe Civil War “Just Happens”
Another Look at The Beard Thesis
Strength of the Beard’s Argument Was ThatEconomic Change Produced TwoConflicting Economic Systems
Beards Claim You Could See These ConflictsIn the Decennial Census Returns
Let’s A Closer Look At the U.S. Census Data In 1860
Were There “Irreconcilable Differences” Between Regions of the United States?
WERE THEY RIGHT?
What Are We Looking For:
Production for the Market
Decline in Home Production
Growth of Urban Centers
In the North:
Increase in Manufacturing and Commerce
The North is becoming a Market Society
Influx of Immigration
A Diverse Population
Growth of Financial Institutions
Key Point is that the South Wants toRemain Just Like It Was In 1790!
In the South:
Slave Plantation Sell Cash Crops
Yeoman Farms Remain Self-Sufficient
No Urban Development
Reliance on Home Production
A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words …
What Are We Looking For:
AGRICULTURE: Farm Size in 1860
Tilled Acres per Farm
9 to 50 Acres
50 to 100 Acres
100 to 250 Acres
Over 250 Acres
West: Family Farms Free Labor
South: Plantations Slave Labor
Per Capital Value of HOME MANUFACTURES in 1860
Home Manufactures ($)
Not Reported
$0.00 to $2.50
$2.50 to $10.00
$10.00 to $25.00
Over $25.00
Home Manufactures Have Practically Disappeared in the North
Value of MANUFACTURED GOODS Per Capita in 1860
Dollars Per Capita
0 to 5 Dollars
5 to 10 Dollars
10 to 20 Dollars
20 to 40 Dollars
Over 40 Dollars
Manufacturing Is Far More Common in the North – Particularly the Northeast
Urban Population in 1860
% Urban
Under 10%
10% to 20%
20% to 50%
Over 50%
South: A Few Urban Centers – Very Few Towns
North: Large Urban Population
West: A Few Urban Centers – Lots of Towns & Small Cities
Number of Banks in the United States, 1860
Number of Banks per County
1 Bank
2 to 3 Banks
5 to10 Banks
Over 25 Banks
Foreign Born Population In 1860
Percent Foriegn Born
Not Reported
0 to 2.5
2.5 to 5.0
5.0 to 10.0
10.0 to 25.0
Over 25 Percent
School Attendance in 1850
Low Attendance In the South
Increasing School Attendance in Northwest
Support forPublic Education
High Attendance In the North
The Northern [Free] States Were Experiencing aPeriod of Rapid Economic and Social Change
Very Different From What Was Happening inThe South
The Beards Had it Right -- There Was Revolution Going On In The U.S.
What the Census Shows:
By 1860 This Had Produced Enormous DifferencesBetween The South And The North
These Regional Socio-Economic Differences Produced
Very Different Visions of Political Economy
THE ARGUMENT THUS FAR:
1. The Northern [Free] States Are Experiencing aPeriod of Rapid Economic and Social Change
North of 1860 Is Very Different From North of 1790
2. The Southern [Slave] States Have Experienced Economic Growth Without Much Social Change
South of 1860 Is the Same As South of 1790
Antebellum Political Economy
Major Policy Disputes Over:
Land Policy
Banking
Education
Tariff
Immigration
Transportation & Internal Improvements
… And Then There Are The Disputes Over SLAVERY
Antebellum Political Crises
1787: Slavery and the Northwest Ordinance
1819-20: The Missouri Compromise
1845-49: Texas and the Mexican War
1850: The Compromise of 1850
1854: The Kansas-Nebraska Act
1850: The Dredd Scott Decision
1860: The Election of Abraham Lincoln
Why Was Slavery Such A Sensitive Issue?
1832-33: The Nullification Crisis in South Carolina
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Mill
ion
s o
f Do
llars
The Value of the Stock of Slaves in the United States, 1805-1860
S ource: R oger R ansom and R ichard Sutch (1988: Table 3)
Historians Before 1960 Argued Slavery Was NOT Profitable
The Increased Value Of Slaves Capital Gains
By 1860 the Value Of Slaves in the CottonStates was One HalfThe Value of ALL Investments!
In Fact, Slave Labor In The South Was Very Profitable
Southern Slaveholders Not Only Made MoneySelling Cotton -- They Sold Slaves!
Slavery
SLAVERY Dominated Every aspect of Southern Life
As SouthernersMoved West …
Their Slaves MovedWith Them
By 1860 the CottonEconomy had pushedWestward to theMississippi River
The Slave Power
Reported Wealth
0 to $1,000
$1,000 to $2,000
$2,000 to $5,000
Over $5,000
Reported Wealth Per Family in 1860
The Slave Power
Competition for Land: TWO PATHS WEST
Northerners MoveWest to Set upFamily Farms ThatProduce FoodstuffsFor the Eastern Markets
Southerners MoveWest to Set upSlave Plantations That Produce Cotton
So Long as There is Land Available – This Pattern Works
By 1860 the Northern “Vision” Is Winning
Demographic Balance favors the North
20 Million to 11 Million People
Economic Power favors the North because ofIndustrialization
North and West Account for 189 of 294 VotesIn the Electoral College
If Lincoln Wins The 1860 Presidential Election
The South Should Secede !
Conflicting Visions
LINCOLN EASILY WINS THE 1860 ELECTION
Southern Options
1. Submit to Political Domination by the North
2. Leave the Union
Even If They Have to Fight a War
Accept the Republican Economic Program
It’s a No-Brainer …
THE BARBARIANS ARE AT THE GATES!
THE SOUTH MUST DEFEND ITS HONOR!
And, Of Course, Its Investment in SLAVES!
A NAGGING QUESTION REMAINS:
Why Did the North Choose to Fight?
Why Not Let the South Secede?
Because That Would Throw Away The Political Gains They Had Struggled for in the 1850s
The SLAVE POWER Would Survive in The Confederacy
The Problem of Slavery Would Remain Unsolved
TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE NORTH FOUGHT“To Preserve the Union”
Is to Ask the Counterfactual Question:
“What if the South hadWon the War?”
Why Consider A Counterfactual Outcome?
Because It Mattered Who Won This War
A Southern Victory Means:
A Slave Republic In North America
Political Realignment in Western World
Lincoln On The Problem Of Settling DisputesBetween The USA And An Independent CSA:
A husband and wife may be divorced, and go out of the presence and
beyond the reach of each other; but the different parts of our country
cannot do this. … Can aliens make treaties easier than friends make
laws? Can treaties be more faithfully enforced between aliens than
laws can among among friends?
Could the South Have Won The War?
Two Scenarios for A Southern Victory:1. A Quick War:
2. Wear the North Down:
Victories at Antietam and/or Gettysburg
Intervention From Europe
Hold the line in the West
Intervention From Europe
Possible – But Not Very Likely
Create A Stalemate By 1864
Lincoln Loses The 1864 Election
Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63
Shiloh
Vicksburg
New Orleans
Texas
Arkansas
Missouri
Kentucky
TennesseeNorth Carolina
South Carolina
GeorgiaAlabamaMississippi
Florida
Virginia
LouisianaUnion Victories
Union Naval Operations
Confederate Victories
VicksburgCampaign Summer 1863
RiverCampaigns Spring 1862
Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63
Chattanooga
Chickamauga
Perryville
Shiloh
Vicksburg
New Orleans
Texas
Arkansas
Missouri
Kentucky
TennesseeNorth Carolina
South Carolina
GeorgiaAlabamaMississippi
Florida
Virginia
LouisianaUnion Victories
Union Naval Operations
Confederate Victories
ConfederateInvasionFall 1862
ChattanoogaCampaign Fall 1863
Murfreesboro
Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63
Antietam
Gettysburg
Chattanooga
Chickamauga
Perryville
Shiloh
Vicksburg
New Orleans
Chancellorsville
Second Manassas Fredricksburg
Texas
Arkansas
Missouri
Kentucky
TennesseeNorth Carolina
South Carolina
GeorgiaAlabamaMississippi
Florida
Virginia
LouisianaUnion Victories
Union Naval Operations
Confederate Victories
PeninsulaCampaign Spring 1862
Union Invasions 1862/1863
Lee’s Invasions1862/1863
Murfreesboro
Confederate Hopes for Winning the War?
Antietam
Gettysburg
Chattanooga
Chickamauga
Perryville
Shiloh
Vicksburg
New Orleans
Chancellorsville
Second Manassas Fredricksburg
Texas
Arkansas
Missouri
Kentucky
TennesseeNorth Carolina
South Carolina
GeorgiaAlabamaMississippi
Florida
Virginia
LouisianaUnion Victories
Union Naval Operations
Confederate Victories
Murfreesboro
1. Stop the Union Advance At Shiloh
2. Hold the Line at Chattanooga
3. Avoid the Disasters at Antietam & Gettysburg
Actual Union Advance by the End of 1862
Chattanooga
Atlanta
Vicksburg
Richmond
Memphis
Nashville
New Orleans
2
3
Shiloh
1CounterfactualUnion AdvancesIn 1863
CounterfactualLimit to UnionAdvances In 1862
The United States of America and the Confederate States of America; 1866
?
United States of America
Confederate States of America
Confederate States of Americac
Pacific States ofAmerica
United States of AmericaUSA
UnorganizedTerritories
CSAUnorganized
Territories
Western Federation
AtlanticFederation
NewEngland
Federation
The Dis-United States; Circa 1865 - 1876
A “Recipe” for Counterfactual History
Two Parts Historical Reality
One Part Imagination
One Part Common Sense
Mix Ingredients and Pour Into a Historical Mold
Serve With A Healthy Dose of Skepticism
Bon Appetit!
WHAT IF?
The Historian’s Secret Question