the antarctic peninsula under a 1.5°c global warming scenario what change … · 2020-04-29 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
The Antarctic Peninsula under a 1.5°C global warming scenario What change is it locked into? MARTIN SIEGERT1, ANGUS ATKINSON2, ALISON BANWELL3, MARK BRANDON4, PETER CONVEY5, BETHAN DAVIES6, ROD DOWNIE7, TAMSIN EDWARDS8, BRYN HUBBARD9, GARETH MARSHALL5, JOERI ROGELJ1, JANE RUMBLE10, JULIENNE STROEVE11, DAVID VAUGHAN5
Introduction
TheUNParisAgreementseekstolimitglobalwarmingtowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevels,promptinganassessmentofhowtoachievea1.5°Ctarget1,2.Here,webringtogetherinformationonhowa1.5°CscenariowillaffecttheAntarctic
Peninsula,notingithasalreadyexperiencedrapidchangeinatmosphericclimate,oceanandiceconditions,andtheimpactsofdirecthumanactivities.AntarcticTreatyParties,aswellasotherinterestedparties,areinvitedtoconsidertheimplicationsofthesepredictionsforthegovernanceofhumanactivitiesintheAntarcticPeninsulaoverthecomingdecades.
GranthamInstituteBriefingnoteNo10April2019
Highlights• AntarcticPeninsulawarminginthelate20thCenturywasgreaterthananywhereelseintheSouthernHemisphere.
• Withafurtherincreaseinglobaltemperaturesof0.5°C:
– AntarcticPeninsulatemperatureswillincreaseby1-2°Cinwinterand0.5-1.0°Cinsummer,withupto130daysperyearabove0°C,leadingtoincreasedrain,snowandicemelt,andsurfacerun-off.
– Oceanturbulencewillincreaseanddeliverheattotheseasurfaceandcoast.
– SeaiceextentwillbehighlyvariablewestoftheAntarcticPeninsula.
– Retreatofmarineglaciermarginswillaccelerate,increasingicebergproduction.
– Meltwaterproductionwillincreaseoniceshelves,butwilllikelynotleadtofurthercollapses.
– Southwardshiftsinmarinelifedistributionhavebeenobservedandwillcontinue.
– Ice-freelandareawillexpand,providinghabitatsfornativeandnon-nativeplantsandinvertebrates,witheachlikelytobenefitfromwarming.
• Non-nativespeciesareafargreaterthreattonativebiodiversitythanthedirectimpactsofwarmingundera1.5°Cscenario.
1. GranthamInstitute,ImperialCollegeLondon,ExhibitionRoad,SouthKensington,LondonSW72AZ,UK2. PlymouthMarineLaboratory,ProspectPlace,Plymouth,PL13DH,UK3. CooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofColoradoBoulder,Boulder80309CO,USA.4. SchoolofEnvironment,EarthandEcosystemSciences,OpenUniversity,MiltonKeynes,MK76AAUK5. BritishAntarcticSurvey,NERCHighCross,MadingleyRoad,Cambridge,CB30ET,UK6. CentreforQuaternaryResearch,DepartmentofGeography,RoyalHollowayUniversityofLondon,Egham,TW200EX,UK7. WWFUK,TheLivingPlanetCentre,RuffordHouse,BreweryRd,WokingGU214LL,UK8. DepartmentofGeography,King’sCollegeLondon,London,WC2R2LS,UK9. DepartmentofGeography&EarthSciences,AberystwythUniversity,Aberystwyth,SY233DB,UK10. PolarRegionsDepartment,UKForeign&CommonwealthOffice,W2.80KingCharlesStreet,LondonSW1A2AH,UK11. CentreforPolarObservationandModelling,UniversityCollegeLondon,GowerStreet,London,WCE1BT,UK
About the Antarctic Peninsula
TheAntarcticPeninsulaincludesthePeninsulaitself,itsislands,andthesurroundingcontinentalshelfandocean.Forthepurposesofthispaper,thenortherlyislands,suchastheSouthOrkneyIslands,arenotincluded.TheAntarcticPeninsulaextendstothesouthernendofGeorgeVISoundandtothenorthernextentofRonneIceShelf,andisdivideddownitslengthymountainousspinebyverystrongwesttoeastgradientsinatmosphericandoceancirculation.Thesefeaturesshapethedistinctcharacteristicsinoceanography,glaciologyandbiologyoneithersideofthePeninsula.ThePeninsulaisalsoaffectedbynorth-southchangesfromthefringeofthesub-Antarctictothedeeppolarregion.
Asaconsequenceofregularmeasurementsoverthelast100years,weknowmoreaboutchangeintheAntarcticPeninsulathanelsewhereonthecontinent.Althoughthereisstrongevidenceofatmosphericwarming,thisisalsoanareaofhighnaturalvariability.Annualnear-surfacetemperaturesincreasedbymorethan2.5°Cinthelatter20thCenturyand,atleastinthenorthernAntarcticPeninsula,havestabilisedinthelast20yearswithvariationsofaround1.5°Cyear-to-year.Summermeltingoccurs,allowingaroundthreepercentofthelandtobesnow-free.
IceshelvesaroundtheAntarcticPeninsulahavethinnedandretreated,andbreak-upeventshaveoccurred.ThecollapseofLarsenA(1995)andLarsenB(2002)iceshelvescausedtheflowofglaciersthatfeedthemtospeedup3,4.GlaciersoftheAntarcticPeninsulacontributearound0.09mmperyear,oraroundthreepercent,toglobalsea-levelrise5,6,7,influencedbyheatprovidedbytheocean7,8,9.SeaiceconditionsareoftenheavytotheeastoftheAntarcticPeninsulaandlighttothewest,butthereisalargedegreeofyear-to-yearvariability.Marinelifehasbeenaffectedbyhumans(sealing,whalingandfishing),especiallyupuntilthe1960s(andthesigningoftheAntarcticTreaty),andresponsestoclimatemustbeinterpretedinthatcontext.Therecentexposureofnewterrestrialsurfacesthathavebeencolonisedbynativevegetationisaclearsignalofclimatechange.
How will the Antarctic Peninsula respond in a 1.5°C scenario?
Climate and weather. AntarcticPeninsulatemperatureswillincreasebymorethantheglobalaverageina1.5°Cscenario2.ThislevelofwarminghasalreadybeenexceededinthenorthernPeninsula10,despitetherecentpauseinrisingtemperaturesintheregion11.Regionaltemperaturescouldincreaseby1-2°Cinwinterand0.5-1.0°Cinsummerbeyondcurrentlevels12.Warmingof1°Cfromtodaywillresultina50to150percentincreaseindaysperyearabove0°C,fromarangeof25to80daysinthenorthernAntarcticPeninsulato
between35and130days.Whiletherehasbeena10to20percentincreaseinprecipitation,andanincreaseinextremeprecipitationevents13,thereisunlikelytobemuchfurtherincreasebeyondcurrentlevels12.ThegreatestchangeinatmosphericcirculationaffectingthePeninsulaisaweakeningofthecircumpolarsummerwesterlywindsinresponsetostratosphericozonerecovery.Increasedlevelsofsurfacewaterrun-off(fromrainandsnow/glacialmelt)and/ormeltingofanythinlayersoffrozensedimentmayalterthestrengthofthegroundconsiderably,albeitforlimitedperiodsoftheyear.Suchchangemayhaveanimpactonstationbuildingsand,potentially,airstrips.
Ocean conditions. ThewestofthePeninsulaisinfluencedbywarmCircumpolarDeepWater(CDW),incontrasttotheeastofthePeninsulawherewatersaremuchcolder14.TheSouthernOceaniswarming15,butwehavenoclearevidencethatthePolarFrontismovingasaresultofthischange16.However,theCDWisbothwarmingandbecomingshallower17,andtheamountofturbulenceintheSouthernOceanisincreasing18.Weexpectthesetrendstocontinue.
Sea ice.ThetwosidesoftheAntarcticPeninsulahaveverydifferentseaiceconditions.TheiceedgeisgenerallyatahigherlatitudeonthePeninsula’swestcomparedwiththeeast.Insummer,virtuallythewholeBellingshausenSeaisfreeofseaice,butontheeastintheWeddellSea,theseaicetypicallyextendstothenorthernendoftheAntarcticPeninsulaandisthickerso,eveninthesummertime,thehighestclassificationice-breakingshipscanhavegreatnavigationaldifficulty.Sincesatelliterecordsbeganaround30yearsago,therehasbeenamodestincreaseintotalannualAntarcticseaiceextent,thoughthevariabilityfromyeartoyearislarge19,andregionalandseasonalchangesaremixed.Tothewest,annualseaiceextenthasdecreasedbyaroundsixtotenpercentperdecadewiththegreatestchangesinautumnandsummer20.ThelengthoftheseaiceseasononthewestofthePeninsulahasalsoreducedbyaroundfourdays21.WeexpectincreasedseaicevariabilityonthewestofthePeninsula,comparedwiththeeast,astheclimatewarms.Thesechangeswillincreasinglyneedtobeaccountedforbyshipping.
Land ice. AntarcticPeninsulaglaciersaresteepandfastflowing,andrespondrapidlytoclimatechange6.Oceanwarmingislikelytocauseacceleratedrecessionofglaciersthatareincontactwiththesea,withslowerrecessiondrivenbyatmosphericchangesforglaciersthatendinland.Thinningandrecessionofglaciersthatextendfromthelandintotheocean,knownasmarine-terminatingglaciers,arethereforeexpectedtoaccelerate,drivenlargelybyincreasedupwellingofwarmCDW.Oncethemarine-terminatingglaciersretreattotheirlandmarginstheywillexperienceslowerthinningandrecession.InsouthernPalmerLand,glaciersaregroundeddeeplybelowsealevelwhichcouldleadtosignificantglacierretreat16.Undera1.5°Cscenario,glaciersonlandwillexperiencemoremeltingthanatpresent16,22,causingincreasedsurfacerun-off.
GranthamInstitute ImperialCollegeLondon
2TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto? Briefingnote No10 April2019
E
Sea ice everyyear here.
THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA UNDERA GLOBAL 1.5°C SCENARIOAn assessment of how atmospheric, oceanographic, glaciologicaland biological processes may be affected if global averagetemperatures are limited to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels (i.e.another 0.5ºC increase globally).
High
Low
.
ANTARCTICAW
SITUATION TODAY AT 1°C of GLOBAL WARMING
Krill and sea-ice dependent food web (e.g. with Antarctic krill, Crabeater- and Weddell seals, Adélie penguins) is still present in the north.
CHANGES EXPECTED UNDER 1.5°C OF GLOBAL WARMING35-130 days per year above 0°Cin the northern Peninsula
Increasing populations of native species, and numbers and impacts of non-native species, on exposed surfaces.
Increased surface melting on glaciers andice shelves. Wholescale ice-shelf instability is not expected
Retreat of marine margins of glaciers.
Krill-dependentfood web
Loss of Larsen Aand B ice shelves.
25-80 days per year above 0°C in the northern Peninsula
Productive new habitat may open up with the reduced ice shelves, glaciers and sea ice.
Krill and sea-ice dependent food web displaced southward down peninsula.
Bottom-dwelling species with limited dispersal capability stressed by impacts from icebergs, changes in surface productivity, warming and ocean acidification.
Terrestrial communities on exposed surfaces.
The sea ice is typically further south on this side of the Peninsula.
Annual presenceof sea ice.
Sea ice limited and variable west of the peninsula.
Species less dependent on krill and sea ice (e.g. fur seals, elephant seals, gentoo penguins) increase around the northern peninsula.
Cold water circulating clockwise around the Weddell Sea approaches the Peninsula.
Relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water approaches the Peninsula at depth.
Cold water circulating clockwise around the Weddell Sea approaches the Peninsula maintains the sea ice cover.
Circumpolar Deep Water is expected to increase in temperature and ascend closer to the surface.
TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto? 3Briefingnote No10 April2019
Ice Shelves.ItislikelythatAntarcticPeninsulaiceshelveswillcontinuetothin,primarilyduetoincreasedsurfacemelting23,24.Ifmeltwatercollectsinponds,itcouldcauseice-shelfbendingandfracture;aprocessimplicatedinthecollapseofLarsenB25.However,surfaceriversmayhelppreventsomeofthisice-shelfinstabilitybytransportingmeltwaterintotheocean26.Iceshelveswillalsothininresponsetomeltingoftheirundersidesbywarmoceanwater27.Whileice-shelfthinningincreasesthelikelihoodoficebergsbreakingoff,thelargesticeshelves(e.g.,LarsenCandGeorgeVI)havesufficientsurfaceareatoavoidcatastrophicfailure.
Marine Ecosystems.Theresponseofmarinelivingsystemstoclimatechangeiscomplicatedbyextractionofmarineresources.Sequentialover-exploitationofseals,whalesandsomespeciesoffishoverthelasttwocenturieshasseverelyperturbedthefoodweb,makingithardtounravelitsconsequencesfromthoseofclimatechange28.Responsesofmarinelifetothe1.5°Cscenariowillbediversewithlikelychangesinbehaviour,physiology,geographicordepthdistribution,plusevolutionaryadaptation.Anobservedsouthwardshiftinthedistributionoflivingthingsdownthepeninsulaislikelytocontinue29.
Terrestrial Ecosystems. Terrestrialbiologyislimitedtoice-freeareas,ofwhichonlyafractioniscurrentlyvisiblycolonised.Theseasonally-exposedterrestrialareaofthePeninsulaisexpectedtoexpand29.Thiswillprovidenewhabitatsforcolonisationbynativeand,likely,non-nativeorganisms.Itwillalsoleadtothecoalescingofsomeareasthatarecurrentlyisolated,andalossofgeneticdiversity.NativeplantsandinvertebratesarewelladaptedtothevariableconditionsoftheAntarcticPeninsula30,31andarelikelytobenefitfrommodestwarming32.However,awiderangeofnon-nativespeciescouldsurviveinpartsoftheAntarcticPeninsula.Thus,thethreatofnon-nativespeciestonativebiodiversityfaroutweighstheimpactsofclimatechangeundera1.5°Cscenario.Inlightofthesepressures,environmentalprotectionoftheAntarcticPeninsulamustremainresolute.
Conclusion
ThePolarRegionshavewarmedtwiceasmuchastheglobalaveragesince1850,sowhileglobaltemperatureshaverisenby1°C,theAntarcticPeninsulahasseenatemperatureincreaseofmorethan2.5°C.Thishasledtoglacierretreat,iceshelfdecayandtheexpansionofexposedlandonwhichsomeplantshavebeenabletogrow.Byrestrictingglobaltemperatureincreaseto1.5°C,wecanlimitthedamagetotheAntarcticPeninsula’secosystems.Wecannotavoidfurtherlossofice,expansionofvegetationandcertaininvertebratecommunitiesonland(potentiallywithalienspecies),andalterationtomarineecosystemsthatarestillrecoveringfrommarineresourceextractiondecadesago.However,theiceshelvesarelikelytobemaintainedandmarinelifecanstillbeprotected.Ifwefailtorestricttemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cglobally,however,theAntarcticPeninsulawillexperienceirreversibleanddramaticchange.
References
1. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf
2. IPCC,2018:SummaryforPolicymakers.In:Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty[Masson-Delmotteetal.(eds.)].World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 32pp.
3. Scambos,T.A.,J.A.Bohlander,C.A.ShumanandP.Skvarca.2004.GlacieraccelerationandthinningaftericeshelfcollapseintheLarsenBembayment,Antarctica,Geophys.Res.Lett.,31,L18402,doi:10.1029/2004GL020670.
4. Berthier,E.,Scambos,T.,Schuman,C.A.,2012.MasslossofLarsenBtributaryglaciers(AntarcticPeninsula)unabatedsince2002.GeophysicalResearchLetters39,L13501.
5. Shepherd,A.,Ivins,E.,Rignot,E.,Smith,B.,VanDenBroeke,M.,Velicogna,I.,Whitehouse,P.,Briggs,K.,Joughin,I.,Krinner,G.,2018.MassbalanceoftheAntarcticIceSheetfrom1992to2017.Nature558,219-222.
6. Cook,A.J.,Vaughan,D.G.,Luckman,A.J.,Murray,T.,2014.AnewAntarcticPeninsulaglacierbasininventoryandobservedareachangessincethe1940s.AntarcticScience26,614-624.
7. Wouters,B.,Martin-Español,A.,Helm,V.,Flament,T.,vanWessem,J.M.,Ligtenberg,S.R.M.,vandenBroeke,M.R.,Bamber,J.L.,2015.DynamicthinningofglaciersontheSouthernAntarcticPeninsula.Science348,899-903.
8. Cook,A.J.,Holland,P.R.,Meredith,M.P.,Murray,T.,Luckman,A.,Vaughan,D.G.,2016.OceanforcingofglacierretreatinthewesternAntarcticPeninsula.Science353,283-286.
9. Rignot,E.,Mouginot,J.,Scheuchl,B.,vandenBroeke,M.,vanWessem,M.J.,Morlighem,M.,2019.FourdecadesofAntarcticIceSheetmassbalancefrom1979–2017.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences116,1095-1103.
10. Turner,J.,S.R.Colwell,G.J.Marshall,T.A.Lachlan-Cope,A.M.Carleton,P.D.Jones,V;Lagun,P.A.Reid,andS.Iagovkina,2005:Antarcticclimatechangeduringthelast50years. Int. J.Climatol.,25,279-294.
11. Turner,J.,H.Lu,I.White,J.C.King,T.Phillips,J.S.Hosking,T.J.Bracegirdle,G.J.Marshall,R.Mulvaney,andP.Deb,2016:Absenceof21stcenturywarmingonAntarcticPeninsulaconsistentwithnaturalvariability.Nature,535,411-415,doi:10.1038/nature18645.
12. Li,C.,C.Michel,L.SelandGraff,I.Bethke,G.Zappa,T.J.Bracegirdle,E.Fischer,B.J.Harvey,T.Iversen,M.P.King,H.Krishnan,L.Lierhammer,D.Mitchell,J.Scinocca,H.Shiogama,D.A.Stone,andJ.J.Wettstein,2018:Midlatitudeatmosphericcirculationresponsesunder1.5and2.0°Cwarmingandimplicationsforregionalimpacts.Earth. Syst. Dynam., 9,359-382,doi:10.5195/esd-9-359-2018.
13. Thomas,E.R.,G.J.Marshall,andJ.R.McConnell,2008:AdoublinginsnowaccumulationinthewesternAntarcticPeninsulasince1850.Geophys. Res.Lett.,35,L01706,doi:10.1029/2007GL032529.
14. Meredith,M.P.,&Brandon,M.A.(2017).OceanographyandseaiceintheSouthernOcean.InD.N.Thomas(Ed.),Sea Ice (3rd ed) (pp.216–238).Chichester:JohnWiley&Sons.
15. Llovel,W.,&Terray,L.(2016).Observedsouthernupper-oceanwarmingover2005–2014andassociatedmechanisms.Environmental Research Letters:11(12),124023.
GranthamInstitute ImperialCollegeLondon
4TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto? Briefingnote No10 April2019
16. Gille,S.T.(2014).MeridionaldisplacementoftheAntarcticCircumpolarCurrent.Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, 372(2019),20130273.
17. Schmidtko,S.,Heywood,K.J.,Thompson,A.F.,&Aoki,S.(2014).MultidecadalwarmingofAntarcticwaters.Science, 346(6214).https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117
18. Hogg,A.M.,Meredith,M.P.,Chambers,D.P.,Abrahamsen,E.P.,Hughes,C.W.,&Morrison,A.K.(2015).RecenttrendsintheSouthernOceaneddyfield. Journal of Geophysical Research, C: Oceans.https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010470
19. Turner,J.,&Comiso,J.(2017).SolveAntarctica’ssea-icepuzzle.Nature,547(7663),275–277.
20. Turner,J.,Hosking,J.S.,Bracegirdle,T.J.,Marshall,G.J.,&Phillips,T.(2015).RecentchangesinAntarcticSeaIce.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373(2045).
21. Massom,R.A.,Scambos,T.A.,Bennetts,L.G.,Reid,P.,Squire,V.A.,&Stammerjohn,S.E.(2018).Antarcticiceshelfdisintegrationtriggeredbyseaicelossandoceanswell.Nature,558(7710),383–389.
22. Luckman,A.,Elvidge,A.,Jansen,D.,Kulessa,B.,KuipersMunneke,P.,King,J.,Barrand,N.E.,2014.SurfacemeltandpondingonLarsenCIceShelfandtheimpactofföhnwinds.AntarcticScience26,625-635.
23. Trusel,L.D.,etal., Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios.Nature Geoscience,8,927-932.
24. Lenaerts,J.T.M.,etal.,Meltwater produced by wind–albedo interaction stored in an East Antarctic ice shelf. NatureClimateChange,7,58-62.
AcknowledgementsWethankDavidSugden(UniversityofEdinburgh)forcommentingonanearlierdraftandClaireWelshfordesigningtheinfographic.FundingforaworkshopheldattheGranthamInstitute,wheremanyoftheideasinthebriefingpaperwerediscussed,wasprovidedbytheUKForeign&CommonwealthOffice.
About the authorsProfessor Martin SiegertisCo-DirectoroftheGranthamInstitute,andanAntarcticglaciologist.Hespecialisesinusingairbornegeophysicalmeasurementstounderstandtheflowandformofpolaricesheets.In2013hewasawardedtheMarthaTMusePrizeforAntarcticScienceandPolicybytheTinkerFoundation.
Dr. Angus AtkinsonisaseniorplanktonecologistatPlymouthMarineLaboratory.Hehasmaintainedalong-standinginterestintheresponseofzooplanktontoclimatechange,withfocusonpolarfoodwebsandparticularlyonAntarctickrill.
25. Banwell,A.F.,D.R.MacAyeal,andO.V.Sergienko,Breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf triggered by chain reaction drainage of supraglacial lakes.GeophysicalResearchLetters,2013.40(22):p.5872-5876.
26. Bell,R.E.etal.Antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river. Nature544,344–348(2017).
27. Bentley,M.J.,Hodgson,D.A.,Sugden,D.E.,Roberts,S.J.,Smith,J.A.,Leng,M.J.,Bryant,C.2005.EarlyHoloceneretreatoftheGeorgeVIIceShelf,AntarcticPeninsula.Geology,33(3),173-176.doi:10.1130/G21203.1
28. TrivelpieceWZ,HinkeJT,MillerAK,ReissCS,TrivelpieceSG,WattersGM(2011)VariabilityinkrillbiomasslinksharvestingandclimatewarmingtopenguinpopulationchangesinAntarctica.ProcNatlAcadSci108:7625-7628doi:10.1073/pnas.1016560108
29. Lee,J.R.,Raymond,B.,Bracegirdle,T.J.,Chadès,I.,Fuller,R.A.,Shaw,J.D.&Terauds,A.2017.ClimatechangedrivesexpansionofAntarcticice-freehabitat.Nature,547,49–54,10.1038/nature22996.
30. Peck,L.S.,Convey,P.&Barnes,D.K.A.2006.EnvironmentalconstraintsonlifehistoriesinAntarcticecosystems:tempos,timingsandpredictability. Biological Reviews81,75-109.
31. Pertierra,L.R.,Aragón,P.,Shaw,J.D.,Bergstrom,D.M.,Terauds,A.&Olalla-Tárraga,M.Á.2017.GlobalthermalnichemodelsoftwoEuropeangrassesshowhighinvasionrisksinAntarctica.Global Change Biology, 23,2863–2873,10.1111/gcb.13596.
32. Convey,P.2011.Antarcticterrestrialbiodiversityinachangingworld.Polar Biology34,1629-1641.
Dr. Alison BanwellisaResearchFellowattheCooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences(CIRES)attheUniversityofColoradoBoulder.Sheisaglaciologistwhoisprimarilyinterestedinthepolarregions,andcurrentlyspecialisesinAntarcticice-shelfhydrologyanddynamicsthroughmodelling,remotesensingandfieldwork.
Professor Mark Brandonisanoceanographerwithover25yearsexperience,basedattheOpenUniversity.Hehasatrackrecordofsuccessfullargeprojectsandextensivepublicengagement.
Professor Peter ConveyisapolarterrestrialecologistandhasbeenworkingwiththeBritishAntarcticSurveyinbothpolarregionsforover30years.Hehaswideinterestsinallaspectsofterrestrialecosystems,butparticularlyinbiodiversity,biogeographyandhumanimpactsinthepolarregions.
Dr. Bethan DaviesisaSeniorLecturerinQuaternaryGeologyatRoyalHolloway,UniversityofLondon.Sheisaglacialgeologistinterestedintheinteractionbetweenglaciersandclimateovermultipletimescales.
GranthamInstitute ImperialCollegeLondon
Briefingnote No10 April2019TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto?
Dr. Rod DownieistheChiefPolarAdvisoratWWF.RodhasledWWFspolarprogrammeintheUKsince2011,following14yearswiththeBritishAntarcticSurvey.Hehascompleted15fieldseasonsintheAntarctic,totallingmorethantwo-and-a-halfyearslivingandworkingontheice.
Dr. Tamsin EdwardsisaclimatescientistatKing’sCollegeLondon,specialisingintestingandassessinguncertaintiesforclimatemodels,especiallyfortheAntarcticandGreenlandicesheetcontributionstofuturesealevelrise.Sheisalsoanexperiencedcommunicator,involvedinpublicengagementwithscience.
Professor Bryn Hubbardisafieldglaciologist,specializinginborehole-basedinvestigationsofthethree-dimensionalphysicalstructureoficemasses.Thisresearchfocuseson,forexample,firnificationprocesses,englacialicetemperatureanddeformation,andthelinksbetweenglaciermotionandhydrology.
Dr. Gareth Marshall isaseniorclimatologistattheBritishAntarcticsurvey.
Dr Joeri RogeljisaLecturerinClimateChangeattheGranthamInstituteresearchinghowourunderstandingoftheEarthsystemcanaffectclimatepolicy.HeservedasaCoordinatingLeadAuthorontheSpecialReporton
GlobalWarmingof1.5°CoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.
Jane RumblejoinedthePolarRegionsDepartmentintheForeign&CommonwealthOfficein2003,andshehasbeenHeadoftheDepartmentsinceJanuary2007.Inthisrole,JaneleadsonallAntarcticissuesfortheUKGovernmentandoverseestheUK’sengagementwiththeArcticCouncil.JanewasmadeanOBEattheQueen’sBirthdayHonoursinJune2018forservicestoPolarscience,marineconservationanddiplomacy;andwasmadeanhonoraryDoctorofSciencebyLeedsUniversityinJuly2018.
Professor Julienne Stroeveisasea-icescientistatUniversityCollegeLondonwhospecialisesinremotesensingofthepolarregions.ShewasrecentlyawardedaCanada150ResearchExcellenceChairattheUniversityofManitoba.
Professor David VaughanistheDirectorofScienceattheBritishAntarcticSurvey.Hehasadistinguishedcareerinunderstandingicesheetsandthecryosphereandin2017hewasawardedanOBEforservicestoscience.
TheAntarcticPeninsulaundera1.5°Cglobalwarmingscenario–Whatchangeisitlockedinto?
About Imperial College London
Consistentlyratedamongsttheworld’sbestuniversities,ImperialCollegeLondonisascience-basedinstitutionwithareputationforexcellenceinteachingandresearchthatattracts13,000studentsand6,000staffofthehighestinternationalquality.
InnovativeresearchattheCollegeexplorestheinterfacebetweenscience,medicine,engineeringandbusiness,deliveringpracticalsolutionsthatimprovequalityoflifeandtheenvironment—underpinnedbyadynamicenterpriseculture.Sinceitsfoundationin1907,Imperial’scontributionstosocietyhaveincludedthediscoveryofpenicillin,thedevelopmentofholographyandthefoundationsoffibreoptics.
Thiscommitmenttotheapplicationofresearchforthebenefitofallcontinuestoday,withcurrentfocusesincludinginterdisciplinarycollaborationstoimprovehealthintheUKandglobally,tackleclimatechangeanddevelopcleanandsustainablesourcesofenergy.
www.imperial.ac.uk
About the Grantham Institute
TheGranthamInstituteiscommittedtodrivingresearchonclimatechangeandtheenvironment,andtranslatingitintorealworldimpact.EstablishedinFebruary2007witha£24milliondonationovertenyearsfromtheGranthamFoundationfortheProtectionoftheEnvironment,theInstitute’sresearchersaredevelopingboththefundamentalscientificunderstandingofclimateandenvironmentalchange,andthemitigationandadaptationresponsestoit.Theresearch,policyandoutreachworkthattheInstitutecarriesoutisbasedon,andbackedupby,theworld-leadingresearchbyacademicstaffatImperial.
www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham