the arctic species trend indexlibrary.arcticportal.org/1665/1/astimarine.pdfthe arctic species trend...
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CAFF Assessment Series No. 7April 2012
The Arctic Species Trend IndexTracking trends in Arctic marine populations
CAFF Designated Agencies:
• DirectorateforNatureManagement,Trondheim,Norway
• EnvironmentCanada,Ottawa,Canada
• FaroeseMuseumofNaturalHistory,Tórshavn,FaroeIslands(KingdomofDenmark)
• FinnishMinistryoftheEnvironment,Helsinki,Finland
• IcelandicInstituteofNaturalHistory,Reykjavik,Iceland
• TheMinistryofDomesticAffairs,NatureandEnvironment,GovernmentofGreenland
• RussianFederationMinistryofNaturalResources,Moscow,Russia
• SwedishEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Stockholm,Sweden
• UnitedStatesDepartmentoftheInterior,FishandWildlifeService,Anchorage,Alaska
CAFF Permanent Participant Organisations:
• AleutInternationalAssociation(AIA)
• ArcticAthabaskanCouncil(AAC)
• Gwich’inCouncilInternational(GCI)
• InuitCircumpolarCouncil(ICC)
• RussianIndigenousPeoplesoftheNorth(RAIPON)
• SaamiCouncil
Thispublicationshouldbecitedas:McRae,L.,Deinet,S.,Gill,M.&Collen,B.(2012)TrackingTrendsinArcticmarinepopulations.CAFFAssessmentSeriesNo.7.ConservationofArcticFloraandFauna,Iceland.ISBN:978-9935-431-15-8
Frontcoverphoto:neelsky/Shutterstock.com
Backcoverphoto:SergeyUryadnikov/Shutterstock.com
Graphicsby:MargrétValmundsdóttir
Formoreinformationpleasecontact:CAFF International SecretariatBorgir, Nordurslod600 Akureyri, IcelandPhone: +354 462-3350Fax: +354 462-3390Email: [email protected]: http://www.caff.is
Editing:JoanEamer,DonRussellLayout:CourtneyPrice
Acknowledgements
___CAFFDesignatedArea
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 6
Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 7
Pan-Arctic update .................................................................................................................................................. 7Table1.NumberofspeciesandpopulationsintheASTI........................................................................................................... 7Figure1.Datacoveragebytaxonomicclass................................................................................................................................... 7Figure2.Indexofabundancefor323Arcticvertebratespecies(890populations),from1970to2007.................. 8Figure3:IndexofabundanceforArcticvertebratespeciesfrom1970to2007groupedbyhigh,lowandsubArctic.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Marine results ......................................................................................................................................... 9
Overview ................................................................................................................................................................ 9Figure4.Spatialdistributionofmarinepopulationdatacollected......................................................................................... 9Table2.NumberofArcticmarinespeciesandpopulationsbyoceanbasinandclass..................................................10Figure5.IndicesofabundanceforArcticvertebratespecies,groupedbymarineandterrestrialspecies,1970to2005..............................................................................................................................................................................................10
Baselines .............................................................................................................................................................. 11Figure6.Indicesofabundancebytaxonomicclass,1970to2005.......................................................................................12Figure7.Effectsoftheremovalofeachclassonthemarineindicesofabundanceweightedatthespecieslevel..............................................................................................................................................................................................................12
Taxonomic trends ................................................................................................................................................ 12
Regional trends ................................................................................................................................................... 14Figure8.Indicesofabundancebyoceanregion,1970to2005............................................................................................15Figure9.Boxplotshowingthemedianannualrateofchangeoffishspeciesineachoceanicregionfrom1970to2005.............................................................................................................................................................................................15
Bering Sea effect .................................................................................................................................................. 16Figure10.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsshowingtheeffectofremovingtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandpopulations.BSAIdatasetscomprised71species,138populations..................................................16Figure11.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsfromtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandregion(BSAI)forbirds,fishesandmammals...............................................................................................................................................17
Ecological trends ................................................................................................................................................. 18
Sea-ice association .............................................................................................................................................. 18Figure12:Knownstatusofindividualpopulationsforninesea-iceassociatedmarinespecies...............................18
Regime shift ......................................................................................................................................................... 19Figure13.Indicesofabundanceforbenthic,pelagic,andbenthopelagicfishspeciesfrom1970to2005..........19
Pelagic fish trends ............................................................................................................................................... 20Figure14.ComparisonofthethreeyearrunningaverageforthepelagicfishindexandtheArcticOscillation..................................................................................................................................................................................................20Figure15.ComparisonofestimatedherringpopulationsizeintheBristolBayareaandtheseaiceextentintheEastBeringSea............................................................................................................................................................................21
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Figure16.Boxplotshowingmedianrateofchangebytrophiclevelforparasitesandforprimary,secondary,andtertiaryconsumers.........................................................................................................................................................................22Figure17.Trendsinabundanceindicesforspeciesofpiscivorousandplanktivorousbirdsandfishesfrom1970to2005.............................................................................................................................................................................................22
Trophic level ......................................................................................................................................................... 22
Conservation management trends .................................................................................................................... 23Figure18.Indicesofabundanceforpopulationsbythreatclassificationfrom1970to2005....................................23Table3.Totalnumbersofpopulationsandspeciesthatarefoundinsideandoutsideprotectedareas................24Figure19.Boxplotshowingthemedianratesofchangeofbirdpopulationsforwhichathreatisidentified,groupedbyprimarythreat,1970to2005......................................................................................................................................24
Protected areas .................................................................................................................................................... 24Figure20.Indicesofabundanceforprotectedandunprotectedbirdpopulationsfrom1970to2005.................25
Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 26
References ............................................................................................................................................. 27
Appendix 1: Methods ........................................................................................................................... 31Populationdata..........................................................................................................................................................................31Datatagging...............................................................................................................................................................................31
AppendixTable1-A.Datatypeofpopulationsbyclass...........................................................................................................31AppendixTable1-B.Populationandspecies-baseddatatags..............................................................................................32
Trendanalysis.............................................................................................................................................................................32
Appendix 2: Table of ANOVA results ................................................................................................... 33
Appendix 3: List of monitored species and locations ........................................................................ 34
Appendix 4: Table of index values ...................................................................................................... 45
Appendix 5: Table of population trends for nine sea-ice associated species .................................. 50
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Executive Summary
Duetothecomplextemporaldynamicsofwildlifepopulationsandfishstocks,long-termmonitoringdatameasuringchangeinpopulationtrendsisanecessaryandrevealingwaytotracktheeffectofenvironmentalchangesonwildlife.
TheArcticSpeciesTrendIndex(ASTI)tracksthetemporalabundancein890populationsof323vertebratespecies.Thisrepresentsanupdateoftheindexfirstreportedonin2010(McRaeet al.2010)andshowsthataveragespeciespopulationabundanceintheArctichasincreasedoverthetimeperiodbetween1970and2007.Thispattern,however,isnotconsistentamongregionsasvertebrateabundancehasincreasedonaverageinthelowArcticbutnotinthehighArcticandsubArctic.ThemarinecomponentoftheASTIshowsagreaterincrease–andevidenceispresentedthatthetrendsinmarinespeciesaredrivingthepan-Arcticindex.Themarinetrendvariesaccordingtotaxonomicclassandoceanbasin,amongothervariables.
Marinemammalpopulationsincreasedonaveragebutthereisaneedtointerprettherecoveryinnumbersinthecontextofthe1970baseline,assomepopulationsstillremainheavilydepletedafterhistoricaloverexploitation.RecentdeclineswereobservedintheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandsforsevenspecies:belugawhale,Stellersealion,harbourseal,seaotter,Pacificwalrus,northernfurseal,andgraywhale.Thereasonsforthepopulationdeclinesarenotuniformforallspecies;theassociatedthreatsincludeoverharvesting,increasedpredation,lossofsummerseaice,anddepletedpreyresource.
MarinebirdindicesshoweitherstableordecliningtrendsdependingontheArcticregioninquestion.Climatechange,exploitation,andinvasivespeciesareanthropogenicthreatsthathavebeenlinkedwithnegativetrendsforsomeofthesepopulations—buttheremayalsobeaninfluencefromnaturalchangesinenvironmentalandforagingconditions,especiallyaffectingpiscivorousspecies,particularlyintheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands.
ThefishdatasetwasdominatedlargelybybenthicandcommerciallyfishedspeciesfromtheBeringSea.AmongfishpopulationstherewereincreasesinthePacificandArcticbasinsofthestudyarea,possiblyduetoincreasesinseasurfacetemperaturesobservedinregionssuchastheBeringSeainthe1970sand1980s.TheaveragetrendinsevenpelagicfishspeciesshowedavariablepatternandwasfoundtohaveastrongassociationwithsimilartrendsintheArcticOscillation.
Populationsthatwereaffectedbyatleastoneanthropogenicthreatshowedanoverallincreasingtrendfrom1970to2005–buttheupwardtrendwasduetoincreasesinabundancethatoccurredinthefirst15yearsofthatperiod.Incontrast,populationsnotidentifiedasbeingunderthreatincreasedfour-foldoverthe35-yearperiod.
Forbirdpopulations,therewasadifferenceintrenddependingonwhetherthepopulationwaslocatedinsideoroutsideaprotectedarea.Onaveragethoseoutsideprotectedareasdeclinedslightlyinabundance,whichcouldbedueinparttounsustainableharvestingofseabirdsinsomelocations,butmoreinformationisneededinordertotestthismorefully.
ThemarinedatasetisdominatedbyfishspeciesandbypopulationsfromtheBeringSeawhich,attimes,havealargeinfluenceonsomeofthesub-indices.ThecurrentspatialextentofmonitoringneedstobeimprovedtobetterrepresentregionsandspeciesclassesacrossthemarineArctic.
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Introduction
TheArcticisoneoftheregionsintheworldexperiencingthemostrapidvisibleandmeasurablechangesinitsclimateandenvironment(ACIA2005;Stroeveet al.2007).Asagloballyimportantareaforbiodiversity,itisvitalthataccuratewildlifemonitoringsystemsareinplacetomeasurehowspeciesintheArcticarereactingbothspatiallyandtemporallytodifferenttypesandmagnitudesofpressure.
Evaluatingtrendsinspeciesabundanceisoneofthemostrevealingwaystoexaminebroad-scalepatternsofbiodiversitychange.TheArcticSpeciesTrendIndex(ASTI),developedforthispurpose,usespopulationtimeseriestrenddatafromvertebratespeciesfrom1970untilthepresentday.ThefirstreportonArcticspeciestrends(McRaeet al.2010;www.asti.is)revealedthattrendsinArcticvertebratesshowanoverallincreaseinabundanceovera34-yearperiod.Furtheranalysisrevealedthatthispatternwasnotconsistentwithinregions,systemsorgroupsofspecies.Incontrasttopatternsintheterrestrialenvironment,marinevertebratepopulationsfromthisregionshowincreasingtrendsinabundanceonaveragesince1970(McRaeet al.2010).Althoughthistrendslowedinratefrom1986,theoverallresultsuggeststhatby2004a53%increaseinabundanceofArcticmarinevertebrateshadoccurredcomparedtoabaselineyearof1970.DisaggregationofthemarinedatasetintotaxonomicandregionalresultsacrosstheArcticindicatethattheremaybedisparityinabundancetrends(McRaeet al.2010).
Oneoftheprincipalweaknessesofrelyingonanon-stratifiedmonitoringnetwork,whichmustbeovercometoprovidethebestpossibleindicatorsofaggregatedpopulationtrend,isthedominanceofparticulardatasetsduetotheimbalanceinmonitoringfocus(e.g.,moremonitoringofcommerciallyexploitedspecies)andtheimbalanceindistributionofmonitoringsites(Bohmet al.2012).ThemarinecomponentoftheASTIdataset,forexample,issomewhatdominatedbypopulationtimeseriesofincreasingtrendfromtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands.Itislikelythatspeciesfromtheselocationsaredrivingthemarineandthepan-Arcticindexwhilstmaskingotherimportanttrends.
TheimportanceofobtainingaclearpictureandimprovingunderstandingofbiodiversitytrendsintheArcticmarineenvironmentcannotbeoverstated.AwealthofresearchintoenvironmentalpatternsintheArcticmarineenvironmentoverrecentyearshasbroughttolightchangesinmarinesystems,bothcyclicalandlong-term,andalsointeractionsamongspeciesthatoccurinthissystem.Recentresearchshows,forexample,impactsonbiodiversityofdeclinesinsea-iceextent(e.g.,Heide-Jørgensenet al.2010;Kovacset al.2010);warmingseasurfacetemperaturesinareassuchastheBeringSeaandpossibleeffectsonspecies(e.g.,Coyleet al.2007;Stabenoet al.2007;Ironset al.2008);and,trophicinteractionsandcascadesthatcanoccurasaresultofenvironmentalchangesinthemarinehabitat(e.g.,Stempniewiczet al.2007;Anthonyet al.2008).
Inlightofthesechanges,furtherinvestigationoftheunderlyingtrendsinthemarineindexarenowneededtoestablishwhethertheincreasingtrendiscommontoallmarinespeciesandregionsandalsotoputtheseresultsinthecontextofenvironmentalchangesintheArcticseas.Inordertoexplorethis,wepresentanumberofsub-indicesshowingtrendsingroupsofmarinevertebratepopulationsdisaggregatedtaxonomically,geographically,ecologically,andaccordingtodifferenttypesofconservationmanagement.Finally,variablesfromthesecategoriesweretestedinrelationtopopulationtrends,usingsingletrendvaluesbasedonthetotalrateofchangeforeachpopulation.Thisgaveustheoptiontolookforsignificantfactorsinpredictingmarinepopulationtrends(seeAppendix1:Methodsfordetails).
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Results and Discussion
Pan-Arctic update
Followingdatacollection,timeseriesupdates,andremovalofredundantdatasets,theASTIwasupdatedtocover323speciesmonitoredthrough890populations(Table1).Thisisanadditionof17speciessincethefirstASTIreport(McRaeet al.2010),increasingtherepresentationofArcticvertebratespeciesfrom35%to37%(Figure1).Notethatapopulation,forthepurposesoftheASTI,isdefinedbyadatasetofannualmeasuresofabundanceofonespeciesfromaspecificlocation.
Species Populations
Mammals Birds Fishes Total Mammals Birds Fishes Total
Terrestrial 30 132 - 162 182 256 - 438
Freshwater 1 44 14 59 3 64 75 142
Marine 22 34 55 111 60 152 98 310
Total (unique species) 53 201 69 323 245 472 173 890
DuetoalargenumberofdataupdateswewereabletoextendtheoriginalASTIbyanotherthreeyearstocovertheperiod1970to2007(the2010ASTIincludeddataonlyto2004).Thisshowsthattherelativelystabletrendatthepan-Arcticlevelthatwasevidentin2004continueduntil2007.PlottingASTIvaluesoverthefulltimeperiod(Figure2)showsthatvertebrateabundancetrendsincreasedfrom1970until1990whentheindexstabilised,remainingaroundthe1.2indexvaluelevel(20%abovethebaseline)fortherestofthetimeseries.
HighArcticspeciesdeclinedfrom1970tothemid-1990sandthenremainedfairlystable(Figure3);lowArcticspeciesaccountformostoftheoverallincreaseinabundanceinthefirsttwodecades,withthetrendlevellingoffinthemid-1990s.SubArcticspeciesincreasedfrom1970tothemid-1980sandthendeclinedatasteadyrate.ThethreeyearsofdataaddedinthisupdateoftheASTI(2005to2007)showmarkeddifferencestotheprecedingfewyears:adownwardtrendforlowArcticspeciesandanupward
Table1.NumberofspeciesandpopulationsintheASTITheupdatedASTIcoversatimeperiodof1970to2007.
Figure1.Datacoveragebytaxonomicclass.
BlackbarsrepresenttheproportionofArcticspeciesforeachclassforwhichpopulationdataareavailable
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trendforhighArcticspecies.Thesechangescanceleachotheroutwhenallspeciesarecombined(Figure2).ThisistooshortatimetointerpretasasignificantchangeandpointsouttheimportanceoffrequentupdatesoftheASTI.
Figure2.Indexofabundancefor323Arcticvertebratespecies(890populations),from1970to2007.Thefigureplotsthe95%confidenceintervalsandthenumberofpopulationscontributingtoeachyearoftheindex*.The2007indexvalueis1.19.
*Confidenceintervalsarenotshownintheremainingfigurestomaintainclarityofthegraphs.ThevaluescanbefoundinAppendix4:Tableofindexvalues
Figure3:IndexofabundanceforArcticvertebratespeciesfrom1970to2007groupedbyhigh,lowandsubArctic.
Polar bear. Photo: Wild Arctic Pictures/Shutterstock.com
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Marine results
Overview
TheArcticmarinedatasetcontainsatotalof111speciesand310populationtimeseries(Table2)from170locations(Figure4).Speciescoverageisabout34%ofArcticmarinevertebratespecies(100%ofmammals,53%ofbirds,and27%offishes)(Bluhmet al.2011).Atthespecieslevel,eventhoughtherepresentationofArcticfishspeciesislowerthanthatofmammalsandbirds,thedataaredominatedbyfishes,primarilyfromthePacificOcean(especiallytheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands).However,therearemorepopulationtimeseriesintotalforbirdspecies,whichisreflectiveofthisgroupbeingbothbetterstudiedhistoricallyandalsomonitoredatmanysmallstudysitescomparedtofishandmarinemammalspecies,whichareregularlymonitoredatamuchlargerscalethroughstockmanagement(Table2).Notethatthetimespanselectedformarineanalysesis1970to2005(comparedwith1970to2007fortheASTIforallspecies,asdiscussedabove).
Figure4.SpatialdistributionofmarinepopulationdatacollectedThesizeofthecircledenotesthenumberofpopulationtimeseriesfromthatlocation.Forgreaterclarityinthedivisionofpopulationsbyoceanregion,theArcticOceanbasemapareausedforallanalysesisshowninpink.
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Species Populations
Mammals Birds Fishes Total Mammals Birds Fishes Total
Pacificbasin 13 22 40 75 32 59 62 153
Atlanticbasin 2 13 7 22 3 25 16 44
Arcticbasin 15 22 15 52 25 68 20 113
Total (unique species) 22 34 55 111 60 152 98 310
Populationdataspannedtheyears1950to2011.However,thegreatestcontiguousperiodofdataacrossallspeciesliesbetween1970and2005.Thisdictatedthetemporallimitssetforthemarineindex.
TheArcticmarineindex(bluelineinFigure5)showsaverysimilartrendtotheindexforallArcticvertebrates,exhibitinganincreasingtrenduntil1990andverylittlesubsequentchange.Incontrast,theindexforterrestrialvertebratespeciesshowsverydifferentpattern,withlittlechangeuptoabout1990,followedbyaslowdecline.ThissuggeststhatthemarinespeciesaredrivingtheoverallArcticindex(seealsoMcRaeet al.2010).
Figure5.IndicesofabundanceforArcticvertebratespecies,groupedbymarineandterrestrialspecies,1970to2005.
Datasetsformarine:111species,310populations
Kittewakes on sea ice. Photo: Gail Johnson/Shutterstock.com
Table2.NumberofArcticmarinespeciesandpopulationsbyoceanbasinandclassMarineanalysescoverthetimeperiod1970to2005.
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Baselines
Theconceptofbaselinesiscriticaltointerpretingananalysissuchastheonereportedhere.Currenttrendsinmarineecosystemsneedtobeinterpretedagainstasolidunderstandingofthemagnitudeanddriversofpastchanges(Lotze&Worm2009).Duetothelackofwidespreadabundancedatapre-1970,theapproachtakenhereistosetthebaselinetotheyear1970(Lohet al.2005).However,anunderstandingofthehistoricalchangesinthesystemcouldlikelyyieldadifferentinterpretationandthuscautionisneededwhenreferringtotheoverallchangeinanindexfrom1970to2005.
Forcertainpopulationsthathaveincreasedinabundancesince1970,itcanbemeaningfultoputthepositivetrendintoanhistoricalcontext.Anthropogenicthreatssuchasexploitationmayhavehadanimpactonpopulationsizebeforethistimeandhencetherecovery,althoughpositive,maynotbeequivalenttothedeclinethatoccurredpreviously.Sometechniquesarebeingdevelopedtotrytoreconstructhistoricalbaselines,specificallyformarinespecies(Lotze&Worm2009),inordertoobtainamoreaccuratepictureofaspecies’currentconservationstatusandasguidelinesforfutureecosystemrestoration.
ThisconceptisparticularlypertinenttothemarinemammalsoftheArcticastherehasbeenalongestablishedpracticeofsubsistenceandcommercialhuntingofmanyspeciesandseverepopulationreductionsofsomespeciesfromhistorical,unsustainablecommercialwhalingSomemarinemammalpopulationshaveincreaseddramatically—positivenewswhencomparingtrendsagainsta1970baselineyear.However,manypopulationsareunlikelytohaveincreasedbacktohistoricalhighs(Alteret al.2007;Lotze&Worm2009;Wadeet al.2011).Forexample,researchonEschrichtius robustus(graywhale)fromtheeasternPacificsuggestedthat,whileabundancehasincreaseddramatically,thewhaleshave,atbest,recoveredto28-56%oftheiroriginalabundancelevels(Alteret al.2007).SimilarfindingshavebeendocumentedforpopulationsofOdobenus rosmarus(Greenlandwalrus)(Witting&Born2005),thewesternArcticpopulationofbowheadwhale(Georgeet al.2004),andforthehighlycommercialGadus morhua(Atlanticcod)(Rosenberget al.2005).
Supply vessel entering Appilatoq, Greenland. Photo: Gentoo Multimedia Ltd./ Shutterstock.com
Fishing nets. Photo: jele/Shutterstock.com
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Taxonomic trends
Themarinedatasetisdominatedbyfishspecies(Table2)andaseachspeciestrendisequallyweightedwithintheindex,thismeansthatthisgroupcarriesthemostweightintheoverallindex.Acloserlookatsub-indicesofeachtaxonomicgroupsupportsthishypothesisastrendsinmarinefishincreaseduptoanindexvalueof2.6overthe35-yearperiod(Figure6).Marinemammalsalsoshowedanupwardtrend.Bothmammalandfishindicesincreasedtoamuchgreaterdegreethantheindexforbirds,whichdisplayedaslowerincreasingtrendto1984,thenremainedstable,withindicationsofaslowdeclinestartingafter1998.
Figure7showstheinfluenceofeachtaxonomicgroupbyplottingthemarineindexwiththesequentialremovalofbirds,mammals,andfishes.Mammalsareindicativeoftheoverallmarineindex—theirremovalfromtheanalysisresultsinlittlechangetothetrendline.Themagnitudeoftheinfluenceofbirdandfishtrendsappearstobelargelythesame,butinoppositedirections.Thepresenceofbirdtrendsreducestheoverallincreaseandthepresenceoffishtrendsraisesit.
Figure6.Indicesofabundancebytaxonomicclass,1970to2005.Indicesareaveragedforbirds(34species,152populations),fishes(55species,98populations),andmammals(22species,60populations).
Figure7.Effectsoftheremovalofeachclassonthemarineindicesofabundanceweightedatthespecieslevel.
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Overall,thetaxonomicresultssuggestthattherehasbeenanaverageincreaseinabundanceamongstArcticmammalspecies.Oneexplanationisthattheyhaveincreasedinabundanceoverthistimeperiodfollowingsharpdeclinesrelatedtohistoricaloverharvesting(seediscussiononthispointinBaselinesectionabove).MammalspeciesincreasedinabundanceinallthreeregionsofthemarineArctic—Pacific,Arctic,andAtlantic(resultsoftheanalysisgroupedbyoceanregionnotdisplayed).MarinemammalpopulationtrendsareillustratedinmoredepthwhenwefocustheanalysisontheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandregionaspartoftheregionaltrendssection.
Marinebirdpopulationshavenotincreasedbythesamemagnitudeasmammalsandfishes(Figure6).Theincreaseinbirdabundancestabilisesaround1984andin1998startsshowingadecline.Theoverallpicturesuggeststhattheabundanceofmarinebirdswasgreaterin2005comparedto1970butwaslesserthanthatin1998.Thisrecenttrendmayindicatethestartofalongertermdeclinesoitwillbeimportanttomonitorthisoverthecomingyearsandtoinvestigatewhatmaybedrivingthesetrends.
Recentstudieshaveshownthatpopulationtrendsinsomebirdspeciesmaybeinfluencedbychangesinclimateandsea-iceextent,astheseenvironmentalconditionsdictatetheavailabilityoffoodandthereforebirdabundance,whichcanhavesubsequentindirecteffectsonthecompositionoftheterrestrialcoastalenvironment(e.g.,Stempniewiczet al.2007).Forexample,somepopulationdeclinesresearchershaveobservedinpiscivorousseabirdsarethoughttobeduetochangesinforagingconditionsdeterminedbywintersea-ice(Byrdet al.2008)andalinkhasbeenestablishedbetweenchangesinsea-surfacetemperatureacrosstheArcticanddeclinesinseabirdcolonyproductivity(Ironset al.2008).Thisisdiscussedfurtherintheecologicaltrendssectionaspartoftheanalysisontrophiclevel.
Marinefishshowalargeoverallincreaseinabundancewhichpredominantlyoccurredinthe20-yearperiodbetween1970and1990(Figure6).Thetrendsinfishspeciesarecontributingmoretothepositivetrendinthemarineindexthantheothertwoclasses(Figure7),sotheseresultsstronglysuggestthatanoverallincreaseinfishabundanceoccurredoverthe35-yearperiod.
Identifyingthedriversbehindthischangeinabundanceiscomplexasthedatasetcomprisesabroadrangeofspeciesthatcouldberespondingdifferentlytovaryingdegreesofclimatic,ecological,and
Guillemots. Photo: Ewan Chesser/Shutterstock.com
Fish feeding on zooplankton. Photo: Mareano Institute of Marine Research
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managementpressures.Commercialexploitationisamoreimportantfactorinfishpopulations(moresothanformostbirdandmammalpopulations),withalittleoverhalfthefishspeciesinthisdatasetbeingcommerciallyexploited.Thefishdatasetcontainsalargenumberofbenthicspecies(two-thirdsofthepopulations).Thismeansthatthedatasetforfishissomewhatdominatedbytheinfluenceofcommercialexploitationandtheemphasisonbenthicfishes.
Populationtrendsarenotnoticeablydifferentaccordingtoaspectsoffishecologysuchastrophiclevelandhabitat(seeEcologicaltrendssection).Finally,regionaldifferenceswerenoticeableinfishpopulationtrends,mostnoticeablyintheAtlanticOceanwheretheaveragechangewasacontinuedandunabateddecline(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).Thispatternisalsoevidentintheregionaldisaggregationoftheentiremarineindex,theunderlyingtrendsofwhicharediscussedinthefollowingsection.
Regional trends
Threeregions:weredefinedPacific,Arctic,andAtlantic(seeFigure4forboundaries)toevaluateregionaltrendsinmarinepopulationabundance.Theseregionsvaryaccordingtoecologicalprocessesanddifferentmanagementandpoliticalpressures.
Bird,mammal,andfishtrendsineachoftheseregionswereexaminedinordertohelpinterprettheresultswefound.Theresultsoftaxonomicanalysesforeachregiondidnotproducereliableindices,largelyduetothesmallsizeofeachdataset,sotheyhavenotbeenincludedinthisreport.However,theinfluenceofbirds,mammalsandfishineachregionisreferredtointhediscussionbelow.
Thethreeoceanicregionsdifferedsignificantlyinaveragepopulationtrend(Figure8andAppendix2:TableofANOVAresults).Thisdifferenceseemstobelargelydrivenbyvariationinfishpopulationabundance—therewerenosignificantregionaldifferencesforbirdsormammals.Figure9showsthesignificantdifferencesinratesofpopulationchangeamongtheoceanregions(F=9.32,df=2,p=0.00),highlighting,atthepopulationlevel,thedecliningtrendintheAtlantic,smallaverageincreaseintheArctic,andlargestpositivechangeinthePacificOcean.ThepronouncedincreaseinthePacificOceanindexisnotasapparentwhenlookingatthemeanratesofchangeanditislikelythattheindexisbeing
drivenbyafewrapidlyincreasingmammalandfishspecies.This,andthecleardifferencesintrendsamongtheoceanbasins,particularlyfrom1975to1995,canbeexploredfurtherbylookingatpatternsintheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands(Box1).
TrendsintheAtlanticOcean,thesmallestdatasetofthethreeArcticregions,aredrivenpredominantlybyfishandbirds.Arcticclimate-drivenregimeshiftsarethoughttohaveoccurredintheNorthAtlantic(Greeneetal.2008)butduetobothnorthwardandsouthwardmovementofspeciesinresponsetothechangingconditions,teasingouthowthismighthaveaffectedoverallabundancetrendsisanalyticallycomplex.Onepossibilityisthatchangestoenvironmentalconditionsmayoperateintandemwithexploitationeffectstofacilitateapopulationdecline.Alternatively,theycouldimpedeanoverexploitedspecies’recovery,assuggestedforthecaseofAtlanticcod(Beaugrandet al.2008).IntheArcticOceanindex,theincreasefrom1987isdrivenbyfishandmammalspeciesasthebirdtrendsarelargelystableacrossthetimeseries(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).
The Arctic Ocean. Photo: George Burba/Shutterstock.com
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Figure8.Indicesofabundancebyoceanregion,1970to2005.IndicesareaveragedfortheArcticOcean(52species,113populations),AtlanticOcean(22species,44populations),andthePacificOcean(75species,153populations).
Figure9.Boxplotshowingthemedianannualrateofchangeoffishspeciesineachoceanicregionfrom1970to2005
Datasets–ArcticOcean:20populations;AtlanticOcean:16populations;PacificOcean:62populations.
Boxplotinterpretation:thehorizontallinesarethemedians;thetopsandbottomlinesoftheboxesrepresentthe75thand25thpercentilesrespectively;thetopandbottomend-pointstotheverticaldashedlinesrepresentthe95thand5thpercentilesrespectively.
Totallambdaisameasureoftherateofchangeovertheentiretimeperiod.
Sea otter. Photo: TTphoto/Shutterstock.com
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Themarineindexshowsanoverallincreaseinvertebrateabundancefrom1970to2005butthespatialdistributionofthepopulationtimeseriescontributingtotheindexisnotuniformacrosstheArcticmarineenvironment(Figure4).MuchofthecurrentmonitoringeffortappearstobelargelyclusteredaroundtheBeringSeaandAleutianIsland(BSAI)area.Thenumberofpopulationsfromthisregion(n=138),whichisasubsetofthePacificOceandataset,outweighsthenumberofpopulationsfromtheArcticOcean,AtlanticOcean,andtherestofthePacificOceanindividually,butnotcombined(n=172).
InordertoinvestigatetheextenttowhichpopulationsfromtheBSAIdrivetheoverallmarineindextrend,thepopulationsfromthisregionwereanalysedseparately.Theresults(Figure10)suggestthatabundancetrendsfromtheBSAIdoexertalargeinfluenceonthemarineindex,particularlyfrom1985to1995,butthatanincreaseinabundanceisstilloccurringintheremainingmarineregionscombined.
AcloserexaminationoftheBSAIregion(Figure11)revealsthatfishandmammaltrendsshowanoverallincrease,whereasbirdtrendsshowanoveralldecline.Anoverallcauseofthedecliningbirdtrendisnotevidentasthepresenceandnatureofthreatsvaryamongbirdspecies.Evenwithinspecies,identifyingprecisecausesofdeclineissometimescomplicatedbyspatialandtemporalfluctuationsoccurringsimultaneously(Byrdet al.2008).OneexampleofaspeciesfromthisregionindeclineisRissa brevirostris(Red-leggedkittiwake).Theeffectsofasubstantialfisheriesindustrymediatedthroughhabitat
disturbanceordisruptionofthefoodwebareapossiblecauseofdecline(Byrdet al.1997).EarlydeclinesofseabirdsintheAleutianislandsinthe20thcenturywerethoughttobeduetofoxpredation(Crollet al.2005)butitisunclearwhetherthiswouldbethemajordriveroftrendsafter1970.
Bering Sea effect
Figure10.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsshowingtheeffectofremovingtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandpopulations.BSAIdatasetscomprised71species,138populations.
Northern fur seal. Photo: VasikO/Shutterstock.com
17
Themarinemammalincrease(Figure11)isnotconsistentacrosstheentiretimeperiod,withadefinitiveshiftindynamicstoadeclinein1988,whichcontinuesuntil2005.Thisisaresultofincreasingpopulationtrendsforsixcetaceanspeciesforwhichmonitoringendedin1989andhighlightstheimportanceofimplementinglong-termmonitoringtoavoidbreaksindatasetsthatcaninfluencetheindextosuchadegree.Ifthesesixcetaceanpopulationsareremovedfromthedataset,theindexshowsanoveralldeclineinabundanceof43%from1970to2005.Thisconstantdeclineintrendisreflectiveofthefollowingspecies:belugawhale,Stellersealion,harbourseal,seaotter,Pacificwalrus,northernfurseal,graywhale–forreasonsincludingincreasedpredation(Doroffet al.2003),lossofsummerseaice(Kovacset al.2010),anddepletedpreyresource(Mooreet al.2003),(Trites&Donnelly2003).
FishspeciesfromtheBSAI,onaverage,increasedinabundancefrom1970to1993(Figure11)andthistrenddrivestheoverallfishindexand,toacertainextent,themarineindex.Anotherbroadscalestudy(Hoff2005)alsofoundpositivechangesinbiomassintheeasternBeringSeashelfforallfishguildsinthe1970sand1980s.Thissuggeststhatfavourableenvironmentalconditionsarelikelytoberesponsiblefortheincreases.Thechangeintrendafter1993toadeclineandthentoastabletrendcouldbeduetolowproductivityobservedingroundfishintheeasternBeringSeaduringthe1990s(Mueter&Megrey2005).
Figure11.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsfromtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandregion(BSAI)forbirds,fishesandmammals
BSAIdatasets–birds:21species,54populations,fishes:37species,53populations,mammals:13species,31populations
Steller sea lions. Photo: Caleb Foster/Shutterstock.com
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Ecological trends
Sea ice association
RecentchangesinseaiceextentintheArctichavebeenwelldocumented(Stroeveet al.2007;Polyaketal.2010)andthereisevidenceemergingthatthisrapidshiftishaving,attimes,adverseeffectsonbiodiversity(Gleason&Rode2009;Heide-Jørgensenetal.2010;Kovacsetal.2010).Thenatureofaspecies’associationwithseaiceisimportantandvariesfromtheavailabilityoficealgaeasthebasisofthefoodwebstotheprovisionofsuitablehabitatforbreedingandforuseasahuntingplatform(Marz2010).
TheASTIdatasetcontainspopulationtrendsforninespeciesthathaveastrongassociationwithseaice(Arcticcod,ivorygull,thick-billedguillemot,bowheadwhale,belugawhale,narwhal,Pacificwalrus,ringedseal,polarbear).Thedatasetforseaiceassociatedspecieswasnotsufficienttoproduceanoveralltrendindexduetoalargevariationintimeserieslengthsforeachspecies,aswellasdiscontinuousperiodsofmonitoring.Lookingatthepopulationtrendsovertheentiretimeperiodforeachspecies,fourice-associatedspecies—ringedseal,belugawhale,Pacificwalrusandthick-billedguillemot—showedoveralldeclinesinabundance(alowerpopulationattheendofthemonitoringperiodthanatthebeginning).Thereweremixedtrendsamongthe36populations(Figure12)butjustoverhalfshowedanoveralldecline.Inlightofthepaucityofavailabledataandthewarningsignofanumberofnegativetrends,thereisclearlyanurgentneedtomonitorthesekeyArcticspecies.
Figure12:Knownstatusofindividualpopulationsfornineiceassociatedmarinespecies.
Forabreakdownbyspeciesandpopulations,seeAppendix5:Tableofpopulationtrendsfornineseaiceassociatedspecies.
Note:thestatusshownforPacificwalrusrepresentsthedecliningtrendinrecentdecades(1980to2006)whichfollowedaperiodofincrease–thetrendovertheentiretimeperiodofmonitoringwasanincrease.
Sea ice associated seal. Photo: Irina Igumnova/Shutterstock.com
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Regime shift
Environmentalchangesinthemarinesystemareprojectedtoleadtoashiftinspeciescompositionfrombenthictopelagic—thisisthoughttooccurinresponsetowarmerseasurfacetemperatures(Richter-Menge&J.Overland2010)andassociatedreductioninsummerseaiceextent.Weinvestigatedthisbyassigningeachspeciestothebenthic,pelagicorbenthopelagicmarinezone(seeAppendixTable1-Bfordefinitions).Lookingatthefishspeciesbrokendowninthisway(Figure13)providesnoevidenceofsuchashift.Bothbenthicandpelagicspeciesexhibitedanoverallincreaseinabundance,withthepelagicfishesshowingadistinctcyclicalpatternthroughoutthetimeseries.Thiscyclicalpatterncouldbeconcomitanttochangesoccurringinthemarineenvironmentinsimilarcycles.Thesixspeciesofbenthopelagicfishalsoincreasedinabundancefrom1970,butthisincreasecontinuedonlyuntilabout1998,whenalargelydecreasingtrendbeganandpersisteduntil2005.Withonlysevenspeciesofpelagicfishinthedataset,thetrendcouldbedrivenbyasmallnumberofthesespecies.Naturalresourcemanagementmayalsohaveaneffect,especiallyconsideringthatsomeofthesespeciesareofhighcommercialimportance(Box2).
Figure13.Indicesofabundanceforbenthic,pelagic,andbenthopelagicfishspeciesfrom1970to2005.
Datasetscomprised
• benthicfishes:42species,63populations;
• pelagicfishes:7species,14populations;
• benthopelagicfishes:6species,21populations.
Arctic ciso drying in the sun. Photo: Rumo/Shutterstock.com
Arctic char. Photo: Dan Bach Kristensen
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Pelagic fish trends
TobetterunderstandtheapparentcyclicpatterndeterminedforthepelagicfishasshowninFigure13,wecomparedtheoverallpelagicfishindextotheestablishedclimateoscillations(Pacific,Decadal,Arctic,andNorthAtlantic).FromthisanalysisthereappearedtobeastrongassociationbetweentheoverallpelagicfishindexwiththeArcticOscillationindexwithpeaksinthepelagicindexin1977,1983,1993,2002,and2009generallytrackingthepeaksintheArcticOscillation.Atthiswidespreadscale,therefore,theredoesappeartobealink(Figure14).
However,itisimportanttorelatethepatterntohabitatindicatorsthatauthorshaveidentifiedassignificantfactorsinthesurvivalandthusproductivityofpelagicspecies.Forexample,authors(NPFMC2008)notethatPacificherringrecruitmentintheTogiakherringpopulation(BristolBay,Alaska)ishighlyvariable,withlargeyearclassesoccurringatintervalsofbetweennineand10years.Further,thereisgoodevidencethatenvironmentalconditions—especiallyairandsea-surfacetemperature—relativetospawnruntimingareimportantfactorsindeterminingPacificherringrecruitmentintheBeringSea(Williams&Quinn2000).
PotentialdriversofherringpopulationchangewereexaminedinrelationtotheTogiakherringdataset(NPFMC2008).Theindicatorslookedatwere:sea-surfacetemperature(NOAA2011);summerbottomtemperature(Richter-Menge&J.Overland2010);meanannualtemperature(GeophysicalInstituteUniversityofAlaskaFairbanks2011);seaicecover(Richter-Menge&J.Overland2010).Thesewereallhighlyvariableanddidnotappeartopeakonanineto10yearcycleasissuggestedintheestimatedherringpopulationsize.Asanexample,seaiceextent(plottedonathreeyearrunningaverage)isshown(Figure15).Thiswastheclosestamongthevariablesto
Figure14.ComparisonofthethreeyearrunningaverageforthepelagicfishindexandtheArcticOscillation
Oscillationdatafrom:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/ao.data
Herring. Photo: fanfo/Shutterstock.com
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relatetoestimatesofpopulationabundanceofherringintheTogiakregionandillustratesthatthedriversbehindtheherringcyclesarenotabletobeexplainedbyasingleindicatorbutareinfluencedbyacomplexoffactors.
(Aydin&Mueter2007))provideacomprehensiveoverviewofthecomplexinteractionsthatmayberesponsiblefortheobservedcyclicalfishpopulationtrendsinthesoutheasternBeringSea.TheyreportthattheBeringSeahasexperiencedabruptshiftsinclimaticconditionssincethemid-1970swithassociatedfoodwebshifts.Theextentofseaiceandtimingoficeretreatiscriticalfortiming,overallbiomass,andfateofprimaryproduction—whichcomprisesmostlycopepods,animportantcomponentofpreyforvariousforagingfishspecies.Differencesinbloomtiminghavefavourableeffectsoneitherbenthicorpelagicspecies.Cyclesofdensity-dependentrecruitmentofvariousshorter-livedpelagicspecies,suchaspollockarealsolikelytointeractwiththecyclesinlonger-lived,competitorbenthicspeciessuchasflatfish.
Anotherfactornotincorporatedintheseabioticindicatorsishumanharvest.TheBeringSeaisoneofthemostproductivefisheriesintheworld(Walshet al.1989)anditsstockshaveexperiencedalonghistoryofexploitation,sothepossibleinfluenceoffishingpressureshouldalsobeconsidered.ThePacificherringpopulationdiscussedaboveisconsideredtobethreatenedbyexploitation(NPFMC2008).Whileoverfishingislikelytodirectlycauseadecreaseinabundanceofafishedspecies,thefishingpressureexertedonastockcouldalsohaveamorecomplexeffect.Fishingeffortandcatchintheregionarecloselymonitored,andadjustmentsaremadetoquota,basedonpastrecruitmentinthetargetspecies.Itispossiblethatthisadjustmentoffishingpressureinresponsetorecruitmentcouldinfluencecyclicalpatternsobserved(Williams&Quinn2000).Furthermore,humanpressurescanandwillinteractincomplexwayswiththeclimaticchangesobservedintheBeringSea.ThisanalysisisagoodexampleofhowaglobalscaleindexsuchasASTIcanrevealrelationshipswithkeydriversofspeciesabundancewhenthisisnotpossiblethroughfocussingonindividualpopulations.Thelatterapproach,however,isimportantinbetterunderstandingthemechanisms:howlarge-scaleoscillationsexertthemselvesonbiodiversityandabundanceandhowfactorsnotincorporatedintosimpleglobalindicesimpactlocalpopulations.
Figure15.ComparisonofestimatedherringpopulationsizeintheBristolBayareaandtheseaiceextentintheEastBeringSea
Bothplottedasthreeyearrunningaverages.HerringdatafromNPFMC(2008);seaicedatafromhttp://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard
22
Trophic level
Pursuingthethemeofecologicalinteractions,Figure16showstheaverageratesofchangebrokendownbythetrophiclevelofthespecies.Wemightexpecttoseedifferencesamongthetrophiclevelsinresponsetoenvironmentalfluctuationsandthecorrespondingchangesinforagingconditions.Forexample,impactsspecifictopiscivorousseabirdshavebeenexploredunderscenariosofachangingclimate(Stempniewiczet al.2007).Therefore,wedisaggregatedthedataforbirdsandfishesintofish-feedingandplankton-feedingspeciestoseeiftherewereanypatternsintheratesofchange.
Figure17comparestheresultingtrendsinfishandplanktonfeedingfishandbirds.Thereisnocleardifferenceintrendsamongthefishgroupsbutthebirdindicesdiffersignificantlyafter1985.Unlikethefish,thetrendsinpiscivorousbirdsareinconcordancewiththemediannegativerateofchangeforallsecondaryconsumersoffish(Figure16).Thebirdpopulationdeclinesinthisdatasetcouldbearesultofdetrimentalchangestoforagingconditionsasfoundinsomespeciesandlocations(Byrdet al.2008)oraresponsetoananthropogenicthreat.Thebirdpopulationsinquestionareaffectedbydifferentthreattypesandlevels,soitisnotpossibletomakeanyoverarchingconclusionsaboutthedeclineinpiscivorousseabirdsatthisstage.
Figure16.Boxplotshowingmedianrateofchangebytrophiclevelforparasitesandforprimary,secondary,andtertiaryconsumers
Datasets–parasites:4populations;primaryconsumers(Prim):2populations;secondaryconsumersoffish(Sec-fish):183populations;secondaryconsumersofinvertebrates(Sec-inv):68populations;secondaryconsumersofothervertebrates(Sec-vert):9populations;tertiaryconsumers(Tert):44populations.
Boxplotinterpretation:thehorizontallinesarethemedians;thetopsandbottomlinesoftheboxesrepresentthe75thand25thpercentilesrespectively;thetopandbottomend-pointstotheverticaldashedlinesrepresentthe95thand5thpercentilesrespectively.
Totallambdaisameasureoftherateofchangeovertheentiretimeperiod
Figure17.Trendsinabundanceindicesforspeciesofpiscivorousandplanktivorousbirdsandfishesfrom1970to2005
Datasets
• piscivorousbirds:22species,116populations;
• piscivorousfishes:26species,44populations;
• planktivorousbirds:4species,17populations;
• planktivorousfishes:15species,25populations.
23
Theunderlyingtrendsfortertiaryconsumerscontrastwiththecommonthemethroughouttheseresultsofdeclinesinbirdpopulationsandincreasesinmammalsandfish(Appendix2:TableofANOVAresults).ThetwoeaglespeciesinthiscategoryshowanaverageincreasewhereasthepopulationsofOrcinus orca (killerwhale)andUrsus maritimus(polarbear)showanaveragedecline.ThefishdatasetisthelargestinthetertiaryconsumercategoryandisdominatedbyGadus morhua(Atlanticcod),Sebastes marinus(Oceanperch)andReinhardtius hippoglossoides(Greenlandhalibut)populationswhicharedrivingthemeanpopulationrateofchangeinthisgroup.Themajorityofpopulationsofthesespeciesarethreatenedbyexploitationsoitisnotsurprisingthattherateofchangefortertiaryfishandtheoverallaverageforthethreeclassesisnegative(Figure16).
Conservation management trends
Anthropogenic threats
Examininganthropogenicthreatstomarinepopulationscangiveanindicationofthepredominantpressuresaffectingspeciesabundance.Forthisanalysis,populationsthathadananthropogenicthreatidentifiedasbeingassociatedwiththembytheauthorsofthesourcedocumentwereconsideredtobeunderthreat.Optionsforthreatcategoryare:‘habitatloss’,‘habitatdegradation’,‘climatechange’,‘disease’,‘pollution’,‘exploitation’,and‘invasivespecies’.Notethat‘exploitation’,whichincludesaccidentalmortalityaswellasharvesting,isthereforeonlyassociatedwithapopulationifitisidentifiedasathreattothepopulationbythesourceauthor.Populationsthatweredescribedasnotcurrentlythreatenedwereplacedinthe‘nothreats’categoryandtheremainingoneswithnoinformationweretaggedas‘unknown’(seedatatagginginAppendix1:Methods).
Figure18showsthat,althoughencouraginglyboththreatenedandnon-threatenedpopulationsincreasedinabundanceoverthe35-yearperiod,thetrajectoriesofthetwoindicesaresubstantiallydifferent.Inaddition,thepopulationsunderthreatstabilisedinabundanceduringthemid-1980sandhavebeeninaslowdeclineeversince.Thepopulationsinthe‘unknown’categoryhaveseenlittlechangeinabundanceoverthistimebutappeartobefaringslightlyworsethanthethreatenedpopulations.Thishighlightstheneedtoobtainmoreinformationonthesedata-poorspeciesandlocations.
Figure18.Indicesofabundanceforpopulationsbythreatclassificationfrom1970to2005
Datasets
• populationsunderanyanthropogenicthreat:57species,110populations;
• populationsundernothreat:42species,57populations;
• thoseforwhichnoinformationisavailable:49species,143populations
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Forthosepopulationsthatareidentifiedasthreatened,‘climatechange’and‘exploitation’appeartobehavingthegreatesteffectonmedianrateofchange(Figure19).Theseresultsaresignificant;howevertheanalysisincludesdataforpopulationswherethreatinformationisnotknown.Whenthe‘unknown’andthe‘nothreat’categoriesareexcludedfromtheanalysisandthemedianratesofchangearecomparedbytaxonomicclass,thereareonlysignificantdifferencesbythreattypeforbirdpopulations(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).Anegativerateofchangeisobservedforpopulationsthreatenedby‘climatechange’and‘exploitation’,whichsuggeststhatbirdsaredrivingtheresultsforallclassesinFigure19.
Informationonthreatswascollatedfromthedatasourceswherethepopulationdatawaspublished.Becausethescopeandobjectivesofeachsourcedocumentvariedaccordingtothesubjecttheauthorsweretackling,thereissomedisparityintheamountofthreatinformationthatisavailableforeachpopulation.TomakebetteruseoftheASTIintrackingandunderstandingtheimpactsofthesethreatstoArcticbiodiversity,itisthereforeimportanttoimprovenotonlytheanimalpopulationdata,butalsothequality,comparability,andcoverageofdataonthreatstopopulations.Variablesthatcanbeusedtopredictchangesinpopulations,includingmeasuresofanthropogenicthreats,arediscussedfurtherinareportonspatialanalysisoftheASTIdataset(Bohmet al.2012).
Protected areas
Table3showsthenumberofpopulationsthatoccurwithinprotectedareas(‘yes’),entirelyoutsideprotectedareas(‘no’),andnotentirelywithinorwithoutprotectedareas(‘no–largesurveyarea’).Thetrendanalysiscomparingprotectedandunprotectedpopulationsshowedverysimilarlevelsofpopulationchange(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).Theprotectedpopulationsaremainlybirdspecieswhichwouldsuggestthatdataareprimarilyfromcoastallocations.Mostofthemarinemammalandfishpopulations,however,aresurveyedinsuchlargeareasthatnoneofthemareentirelyprotected.
Located within a protected area?
Populations
Mammals Birds Fishes
yes 21 95 4
no 7 30 12
no-largesurveyarea 27 21 82
total“no” 34 51 94
Figure19.Boxplotshowingthemedianratesofchangeofbirdpopulationsforwhichathreatisidentified,groupedbyprimarythreat,1970to2005.
Datasets–threatstobirdpopulations:climatechange(CC):12populations;disease:1population;exploitation(exploit):4populations;habitatdegradation(habdeg):7populations;invasivespecies(inv):1population;pollution:3populations.
Boxplotinterpretation:thehorizontallinesarethemedians;thetopsandbottomlinesoftheboxesrepresentthe75th
and25thpercentilesrespectively;thetopandbottomend-pointstotheverticaldashedlinesrepresentthe95thand5thpercentilesrespectively.
Totallambdaisameasureoftherateofchangeovertheentiretimeperiod.
Table3.Totalnumbersofpopulationsandspeciesthatarefoundinsideandoutsideprotectedareas
25
Althoughtheoverallindicesofpopulationchangeforvertebrateswithinprotectedareasandvertebratesnotwithinprotectedareasaresimilar,ifwelookonlyatbirdpopulationsbirdpopulationsinprotectedareasarefaringfarbetterthantheircounterpartsinunprotectedareas(Figure20).BirdpopulationsinunprotectedareaswerefoundprimarilyalongthewestandnortheastcoastofIceland,theMurmanskandTaimyrregionsofRussia,andthenorthernpartofNorway,includinglocationsintheBarentsSea.Someoftheseregionshavealongtraditionofutilisingseabirdpopulations(Denlinger&Wohl2001),althoughthenumberofspeciesutilisedandamountofharvesttakenareoftenonlyafractionofformerlevels(Merkel2010).HuntingisstrictlyregulatedinNorwayandSvalbardandposesnoparticularthreat(Bakken&Anker-Nilssen2001).InRussia,Alcidscanbehuntedlocallyatparticulartimesoftheyear,withnohuntingallowedatseaintheBarentsSearegion(Golovkin2001).
Onepotentialcauseofdecline(especiallyinpastdecades)ofmarinebirdsnotinprotectedareasisthewidespreadutilisationofmarinebirdsthroughouttheArctic(Merkel&Barry2008).AroundtheArctic,themostcommonspeciesharvestedareCommonmurresandCommoneiders,andthecountrieswiththehighestharvestlevelsareIceland,Canada,andGreenland(Merkel2010).Thefollowingsectionconsiderstwomeasuresrecordedforeachpopulationtimeseriesinthedataset:1)isthepopulationknowntobeutilised(throughregularorsystematicharvesting,includingcollectionofeggs);and,2)isthepopulationthoughttobeimpactedbyexploitation(includingbothharvestingandaccidentalkilling,forexamplethoughentanglementinfishingnets).
TheharvestofseabirdsusedtobewidespreadinNorwayandSvalbardbutnowadaysstrictregulationsandyear-roundprotectionofmostspeciesresultinaverylowharvestrateofanaverageof5,000birdsperyear,thereforenotposingaparticularthreat(Merkel&Barry2008).Ofthe11Norwegian
Female and male common eiders. Photo: Micha Klootwijk/Shutterstock.com
Figure20.Indicesofabundanceforprotectedandunprotectedbirdpopulationsfrom1970to2005.
Dataset
• protected:30species,95populations;
• unprotected:17species,51populations.
26
populations,onlytwoarethreatenedbyexploitation(Steller’seiderfromVarangerfjord,andCommonmurrefromFinnmark),butnotbeingatargetspeciesandwithnoindicationofbeingutilisedcouldpointtoapotentialimpactfromoutsidethecountry.InRussia,seabirdharvesthasneverbeenofprimaryimportancefortheeconomyorlocalcommunities,withtheexceptionofindigenouspeopleinhabitingthenorthandfareastofthecountry(Merkel&Barry2008).Noofficialfiguresontheharvesttakenannuallyexist,buttheyarebelievedtobelow,asmostoftheimportantbirdcoloniesarenowprotected(Merkel&Barry2008).Nevertheless,poachingcouldbealocalizedproblem,especiallyinremoteareas(Merkel&Barry2008).OftheRussianpopulationsinthedataset,nonearerecordedasbeingutilisedandonlySteller’seiderisconsideredtobethreatenedbyexploitation.However,asthisisacountry-wideestimate,over-harvestingisunlikelytobethesinglereasonfortheobserveddeclineinbirdsinunprotectedareas.
Onethirdofpopulationsinthedatasetareexplicitlynotutilised;weonlyhaveinformationconfirmingutilisationforonepopulation,whichisSomateria mollissima(commoneider)fromsouthwestIceland.Theutilisationstatusforotherpopulationsisunknown.Interestingly,threedifferentpopulationsofblackguillemotandnorthernfulmararelistedasbeingthreatenedbyexploitation,althoughthisisthroughbycatchandnotintentionalharvesting.
Overall,thereisnoevidencetosuggestthatunsustainableharvestcouldbethecauseofdecliningtrendsinseabirdpopulationsoutsideofprotectedareasintheArctic.Butasthemajorityofpopulationdatasetsarenotaccompaniedbyinformationonutilisationstatusoronexploitationasapotentialthreat(thesesourcesareinlanguagesotherthanEnglish),thisremainsapossibilityandcouldbefurtherexploredbyimprovingthedataonutilisationandexploitationandonfocussingtheanalysisonspeciesthataretargetedforharvestorarevulnerabletootherformsofexploitation.
Acknowledgements
Wewouldliketothankandacknowledgeallofthedatacontributorstothe2010ASTIreport(McRaeet al.2010).WewouldalsoliketothankJoRocheandHannahMacGregorforenteringnewdata,andTomBarryandMichaelSvobodaforreviewingthereportandfortheirhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.FinallywewouldalsoliketoacknowledgeEnvironmentCanadaandtheCAFFSecretariatforprovidingfundsforthisreport.
Bird cliff. Photo: Maksimilian/Shutterstock.com
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31
Appendix 1: Methods
Population data
TimeseriestrendsforArcticspecieswerecollatedbyCAFF´sCBMPandfromtheLivingPlanetDatabase(Lohet al.2005;Collenet al.2009;www.livingplanetindex.org).Thesedatawerecollatedfrompublishedscientificliterature;onlinedatabases;Arcticresearchersandinstitutions;andfromgreyliterature.
FollowingCollenet al.(2009)datawereonlyincludedif:
• measureorproxymeasureofpopulationsize–e.g.,fullpopulationcount,biomass,catchperuniteffort,density(AppendixTable1-A)-wasavailableforatleast2years;
• informationwasavailableonhowthedatawerecollectedandwhattheunitsofmeasurementwere;
• thegeographiclocationofthepopulationwasprovidedandlaywithinthedefinedArcticboundaries;
• thedatawerecollectedusingthesamemethodonthesamepopulationthroughoutthetimeseries;and,
• thedatasourcewasreferencedandtraceable.
Data type Mammals Birds Fish Total
Biomass 68 68
Measureperuniteffort 1 9 10
Populationsestimateorcount 34 86 9 129
Other 25 66 12 103
Data tagging
Ancillaryinformationtothetimeseriesdatawasalsocollatedatboththespeciesandpopulationlevelencompassingdataongeographic,ecologicalandconservationmanagementthemes.ThosetagsusedtodisaggregatethemarinedataaredetailedinAppendixTable1-B.
Appendix Table 1- A.Datatypeofpopulationsbyclass
Northern fulmar Photo: David Thyberg/Shutterstock.com
32
Data tag Details
System Terrestrial; Freshwater; Marine
Populationbased
Marineocean Atlantic;Pacific;Arctic
Primarythreat Informationontheprimaryanthropogenicthreattoapopulationwasrecordedifavailablefromthedatasource.Optionsforthreatcategoryarehabitatloss,habitatdegradation,climatechange,disease,pollution,exploitation,invasivespecies,nothreats,unknown
Protectedarea Yes;No(entirelyoutsideprotectedareas);No–largesurveyarea(populationwassurveyedinalargeareaandsonotentirelyinsideoroutsideaprotectedarea).TheWorldDatabaseonProtectedAreaswasusedtodiscernprotectedareastatus(IUCN&UNEP-WCMC2010)
Seaiceassociation Yes;No
Speciesbased
Trophiclevel Parasite;Primaryconsumer;Secondaryconsumer(fish);Secondaryconsumer(invertebrates);Secondaryconsumer(vertebrates);Tertiaryconsumer
Marinezone Benthic(livingandfeedingnearthebottomoftheocean);pelagic(livingandfeedingintheopensea);benthopelagic(livingandfeedingnearthebottomoftheoceanaswellasinmidwaterandnearthesurfaceorspecieswhichhoverorswimjustovertheseafloor–(Froese&Pauly2011))
Taxonomicclass Birds;mammals;fish(asthereareonlythreeElasmobranchspeciesinthedataset,wegroupedthesewithActinopterygiitocreateonefishclass)
Trend analysis
ForthemarineASTI,datawereaveragedatthespecieslevel(equalweightperspecies).ANOVAanalyses,however,wereconductedatthepopulationlevel.
AllanalyseswerecarriedoutinRversion2.12.0(RDevelopmentCoreTeam2006).IndicesofchangeinmarinespeciesabundancewerecalculatedusingaGeneralisedAdditiveModelling(GAM)frameworktoobtainpopulationtrendsandthenageometricaggregationmethodfollowingCollenet al.(2009)toproduceanindexofchange.Thedatasetwasdisaggregatedaccordingtothedatatagsabovetolookforunderlyingtrendsinthemarinedata.Inordertotestthesignificanceofseveralvariablesinassociationwithpopulationchange,wefirstcomputedthreemeasuresfromtherawpopulationtrendtimeseriesdata.Thesewere:
• slopeofalinearregressionofyearagainstpopulationsize(LRS);• meanannualchangeinpopulationsizecalculatedusingaGAMframework(MAC);and• totalchangeinpopulationsizeovertimeusingaGAMframework(TC).
Weobtainedthreechangemeasuresforeachpopulationandspeciesbygeneratingtheloggedtrendvaluesandmeanloggedtrendvaluesrespectivelyfromtheindividualpopulationtimeseriescalculatedbyeachofthemethodsabove.WecarriedoutANOVAstotrialeachofthethreemeasuresofpopulationchangeagainsteachofthediscontinuousvariablesandlinearregressionsofpopulationchangeagainsteachofthetwocontinuousvariables.Veryfewsignificantresultswereproducedatthespecieslevelsowehavereportedonlythosesignificantresultsatthepopulationlevel(seeAppendix2:TableofANOVAresults)andaswewereinterestedinthemostvariance,thetrendvalueweselectedtoreportonwasmeasuringtotalchange(TC),alsoreferredtoastotallambdaovertimeaswasusedonsimilaranalyses(Collenet al. 2011).Wedisplayedboxplotsforsignificantresultswhererelevant.
Appendix Table 1- B. Populationandspecies-baseddatatags
33
Appendix 2: Table of ANOVA results
Factor Total lambda
df Sum sq Mean sq F value p value
Class 2 1.387 0.69344 1.5972 0.2041
Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;allspp) 8 11.893 1.48661 3.6444 0.0004551***
Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;birds) 8 6.415 0.8019 2.2363 0.02805*
Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;fish) 4 5.321 1.33028 2.9809 0.02302*
Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;mammals) 5 4.981 0.9962 2.2612 0.0612300000
Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;allspp) 5 2.687 0.53738 1.4981 0.1968000000
Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;birds) 5 4.1466 0.82931 4.3431 0.006696**
Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;fish) 1 0.1133 0.11331 0.2265 0.6360000000
Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;mammals) 2 0.1311 0.065545 0.3734 0.6927000000
Protectedlocation 3 2.276 0.75881 1.7538 0.1560
Protectedvsunprotected-allspp(YesandNoonly) 1 1.425 1.42516 3.1105 0.0796
Protectedvsunprotected-birds(YesandNoonly) 1 2.591 2.5911 6.9899 0.009265**
Protectedvsunprotected-fish(YesandNoonly) 1 0.046 0.04597 0.1007 0.7556
Protectedvsunprotected-mammals(YesandNoonly) 1 0.5361 0.53614 0.7003 0.4103
Protectedvsunprotected-allspp(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.621 0.62081 1.4107 0.2359
Protectedvsunprotected-birds(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.003627 0.003627 4.3371 0.03906*
Protectedvsunprotected-fish(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.511 0.51113 1.0595 0.3059
Protectedvsunprotected-mammals(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.5509 0.55085 1.1622 0.2859
Oceanbasin 2 7.126 3.5631 8.5762 0.0002375***
Ocean-birds 2 1.974 0.98697 2.6393 0.0748
Ocean-fish 2 7.682 3.8409 9.3222 0.0002011***
Ocean-mammals 2 0.0798 0.03992 0.0793 0.9239
BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;allspp) 1 1.376 1.3763 3.1801 0.0755
BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;birds) 1 0.086 0.08641 0.225 0.6360
BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;fish) 1 1.74 1.74006 3.7052 0.0572
BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;mammals) 1 0.0024 0.00238 0.0048 0.9450
Trophiclevel 5 5.285 1.05703 2.4835 0.03176*
Tertiaryconsumerbyclass 2 3.683 1.8415 5.0372 0.01106*
Sea-iceassociation 1 0 0.00005 0.000100 0.9919
Marinezone-benthic,pelagic,benthopelagic 2 2.129 1.06443 2.465400 0.0867
Marinezone-fish 2 3.125 1.56266 3.3972 0.03758*
Marinezone-birds 2 0.001112 0.000556 0.668100 0.5142
Protectedlocation(allspp) 3 2.276 0.75881 1.7538 0.1560
PAtype(all,inclunprotected) 3 1.111 0.37043 0.8487 0.4682
PAtype(yesandbothonly) 3 2.138 0.71253 1.8886 0.1348
Depthstratum 2 2.782 1.391 3.2378 0.04060*
Depthstratum(fish) 1 0.103 0.10285 0.2113 0.6468
Utilised(allspp) 2 0.304 0.15193 0.3471 0.71
Utilised(fish) 2 0.91 0.4551 0.9417 0.39
Highlightedcellsdenotesignificantresults*significantatp<0.05level**significantatp<0.01level***significantatp<0.001level
34
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land
Icelan
dKr
isuv
ikur
berg
(Kris
uvik),SW
Icelan
d
Ca
nada
Prince
Leo
poldIs
land
,Nun
avut
Icelan
dSk
oruv
ik,N
EIcelan
d
Ru
ssianFe
deratio
nBe
zym
yann
ayaba
y
Nor
way
Hor
noya
Gre
enland
KapBr
ewster
Ru
ssianFe
deratio
nKh
arlovIsland
42Cl
ass
Bino
mia
lCo
mm
on n
ame(
s)Co
untr
yLo
cati
on o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Sv
alba
rdand
JanMay
enIs
land
sSv
alba
rd
Unite
dSt
ates
BuldirIsland
Unite
dSt
ates
HallIslan
d,A
lask
a
Unite
dSt
ates
StG
eorg
eIsland
,Prib
ilofs
Unite
dSt
ates
StPau
lIslan
d,Prib
ilofs
Unite
dSt
ates
St.L
awre
nceIsland
Xem
a sa
bini
Sabine
'sGull
Unite
dSt
ates
Yuko
n-Ku
skok
wim
delta
Mam
mal
sBa
laen
a m
ystic
etus
Bowhe
adw
hale
Unite
dSt
ates
Wes
tern
Arctic
sto
ck,A
lask
a(aka
Ber
ing-
Chuk
chi-
Beau
fortsto
ck).
Bala
enop
tera
acu
toro
stra
taM
inke
wha
leNor
way
Bare
ntsh
avet
,Grø
nlan
dsha
vet,Nor
skeh
avet
og
Nor
dsjøen
Icelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Unite
dSt
ates
Pribilo
fIsa
lnds
,Ber
ingSe
a
Bala
enop
tera
bor
ealis
Seiw
hale
Icelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Bala
enop
tera
mus
culu
sBlue
wha
leIcelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Bala
enop
tera
phy
salu
sFinwha
leGre
enland
Gre
enland
Icelan
dIcelan
d
Icelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Cana
daNew
foun
dlan
d
Unite
dSt
ates
Pribilo
fIslan
ds,B
eringSe
a
Callo
rhin
us u
rsin
usNor
ther
nfu
rsea
lUnite
dSt
ates
St.G
eorg
eIsland
(inth
ePr
ibilo
fIslan
dspar
toft
he
Aleut
ianIsland
s),A
lask
a
Unite
dSt
ates
St.P
aulIslan
d(in
thePr
ibilo
fIslan
dspar
toft
he
Aleut
ianIsland
s),A
lask
a
Del
phin
apte
rus l
euca
sBe
luga
Unite
dSt
ates
Cook
Inlets
tock
,Alask
a
Ca
nada
Easter
nHud
sonBa
ypo
pulatio
n
Unite
dSt
ates
Easter
nCh
ukch
iSea
Sto
ck,A
lask
a
Unite
dSt
ates
Nor
tonSo
und,A
lask
a
Enhy
dra
lutr
isSe
aot
ter
Unite
dSt
ates
Adak
Island
,Aleut
ianIsland
s,Alask
a
RussianFe
deratio
nBe
ringIsland
,Rus
sia
Unite
dSt
ates
Delarof
Island
s,Aleut
ianIsland
s,Alask
a.
Unite
dSt
ates
FoxIsland
,Aleut
ianIsland
s,Alask
a
Unite
dSt
ates
Nea
rIslan
ds,A
leut
ianIsland
s,Alask
a.
43Cl
ass
Bino
mia
lCo
mm
on n
ame(
s)Co
untr
yLo
cati
on o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Unite
dSt
ates
Nor
thA
lask
anpen
insu
la,n
orth
east(o
ffsho
re)
Unite
dSt
ates
Nor
thA
lask
anpen
insu
la,s
outh
wes
t(off
shor
e)
Unite
dSt
ates
RatIslan
ds,A
leut
ianIsland
s,Alask
a.
Unite
dSt
ates
Sout
hAlask
ape
nins
ula,coa
stlin
eof
22island
s.
Unite
dSt
ates
Sout
hAlask
ape
nins
ula,False
Pas
sto
Cap
eDou
glas
,co
asta
l
Unite
dSt
ates
Sout
hAlask
anPen
insu
lafr
om(o
ffsho
re)fro
mth
eIkatan
Pen
insu
lato
Shu
mag
inIs
land
s
Esch
richt
ius r
obus
tus
Graywha
leUnite
dSt
ates
Nor
ther
nBe
ringSe
ainclud
ingSt
Law
renc
eIsland
Unite
dSt
ates
Pribilo
fIslan
ds,B
eringSe
a
Eum
etop
ias j
ubat
usSt
ellers
ealion
Unite
dSt
ates
Alask
a-W
este
rnsto
ck
Unite
dSt
ates
Cent
ralA
leut
ianIsland
s
Unite
dSt
ates
Easter
nAleut
ianIsland
s
RussianFe
deratio
nKu
rilIs
land
s
Unite
dSt
ates
Wes
tern
Aleut
ianIsland
s
Glo
bice
phal
a m
elas
Long
finn
edpilo
twha
leIcelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Hyp
eroo
don
ampu
llatu
sNor
ther
nbo
ttleno
sew
hale
Icelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Meg
apte
ra n
ovae
angl
iae
Hum
pbac
kwha
leIcelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Unite
dSt
ates
Pribilo
fIslan
ds,B
eringSe
a
Mon
odon
mon
ocer
osNar
wha
lCa
nada
Hud
sonBa
y,Can
ada
Odo
benu
s ros
mar
usPa
cific
walru
sUnite
dSt
ates
Berin
gan
dCh
ukch
isea
sof
Alask
aan
dRu
ssia
Orc
inus
orc
aKille
rwha
leIcelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Unite
dSt
ates
Pribilo
fIslan
ds,B
eringSe
a
Phoc
a vi
tulin
aHar
bour
Sea
lUnite
dSt
ates
Otter
Island
,Ber
ingSe
a,A
lask
a
Unite
dSt
ates
Nan
vakIsland
,Alask
a
Sw
eden
Nor
ther
nSw
eden
Unite
dSt
ates
Tugida
kIsland
,Alask
a
Phoc
oena
pho
coen
aHar
bour
por
poise
Icelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Phoc
oeno
ides
dal
liDall's
por
poise
Unite
dSt
ates
Pribilo
fIslan
ds,B
eringSe
a
Phys
eter
cato
don
Sper
mw
hale
Icelan
dIcelan
dicco
asta
lwater
s
Pusa
his
pida
Ring
edsea
lCa
nada
easter
nBe
aufo
rtSea
Urs
us m
ariti
mus
Polarb
ear
Unite
dSt
ates
Alask
anSto
ck
44
Clas
sBi
nom
ial
Com
mon
nam
e(s)
Coun
try
Loca
tion
of P
opul
atio
n
Cana
daBa
ffinBa
y
Unite
dSt
ates
Chuk
chi/B
eringSe
astoc
k
Cana
daDav
isStrait
Cana
daNor
ther
nBe
aufo
rtSea
pop
ulation
Unite
dSt
ates
Sout
hern
Bea
ufor
tpop
ulation
Cana
daSo
uthe
rnH
udso
nBa
ypo
pulatio
n
Cana
daW
este
rnH
udso
nBa
ypo
pulatio
n
RussianFe
deratio
nW
rang
elIs
land
State
Natur
eRe
serv
e
45
App
endi
x 4:
Tab
le o
f ind
ex v
alue
s
Theta
blepr
esen
tsfive
yea
rlyin
dexva
lues
and
num
bero
fpop
ulations
fore
achArctic
inde
xsh
owninth
ere
port.
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
AST
I 201
11
1.00
9841
1.07
8684
1.15
0389
1.23
9031
1.21
8304
1.16
5219
1.21
232
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.94
8302
0.99
796
1.04
626
1.10
4754
1.07
5185
1.01
7745
1.04
8901
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.07
6369
1.16
7175
1.26
6994
1.39
765
1.38
5632
1.33
4767
1.40
2085
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
224
283
353
411
469
571
619
503
Mar
ine
Mar
inesp
ecies
11.11
4247
1.31
7582
1.57
2679
1.88
2688
1.96
8758
1.89
5275
1.93
523
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.96
5039
1.11
3791
1.28
8609
1.47
4931
1.52
5575
1.45
3415
1.46
4981
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.30
8125
1.58
9431
1.93
303
2.41
3804
2.54
9569
2.47
1473
2.55
6968
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
6899
145
195
216
231
222
165
Mar
inebird
s1
0.99
7764
1.12
2378
1.28
987
1.31
4885
1.33
1219
1.23
6808
1.21
1394
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.91
827
1.00
5529
1.12
5928
1.08
6834
1.06
1118
0.98
2468
0.86
91
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.09
5847
1.24
4867
1.45
0622
1.59
9749
1.64
3055
1.59
3717
1.56
662
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
3449
7410
311
512
411
592
Mar
inem
amm
als
11.20
2454
1.72
2755
1.82
7424
1.96
272.53
3504
2.47
6332
2.21
4405
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.02
7889
1.17
436
1.23
7401
1.05
0436
1.27
0725
1.28
0015
1.05
5701
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.38
9616
2.35
3404
2.64
3598
3.84
6035
4.65
1949
4.26
7893
3.83
6428
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
1020
2534
4146
4310
Mar
inefis
hes
11.21
5079
1.33
1957
1.77
474
2.57
9227
2.47
9329
2.42
4314
2.60
0284
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.94
6687
1.01
7399
1.28
4341
1.70
1527
1.64
0312
1.62
3004
1.75
3774
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.94
6065
2.07
7843
3.02
0004
4.34
7044
4.33
2616
4.05
346
4.44
3767
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
2430
4658
6061
6463
Taxo
nom
ic e
ffec
t
Mar
ine
11.11
4247
1.31
7582
1.57
2679
1.88
2688
1.96
8758
1.89
5275
1.93
523
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.96
5039
1.11
3791
1.28
8609
1.47
4931
1.52
5575
1.45
3415
1.46
4981
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.30
8125
1.58
9431
1.93
303
2.41
3804
2.54
9569
2.47
1473
2.55
6968
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
6899
145
195
216
231
222
165
46
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Minus
bird
s1
1.21
8977
1.50
363
1.84
363
2.41
092.56
1966
2.50
812.61
6509
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.95
2601
1.11
7566
1.32
8514
1.64
1212
1.71
7797
1.66
3814
1.71
0984
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.61
4112
2.08
8935
2.62
9027
3.64
9082
3.90
1905
3.83
919
4.05
9243
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
3450
7192
101
107
107
73
Minus
fish
es1
1.04
1276
1.27
3508
1.42
1223
1.46
926
1.63
6768
1.55
0269
1.49
6136
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.95
9672
1.11
1677
1.20
1662
1.15
2716
1.26
1503
1.17
6684
1.10
393
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.13
158
1.48
1346
1.72
0099
1.90
8795
2.15
271
2.05
8076
2.04
3897
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
4469
9913
715
617
015
810
2
Minus
mam
mals
11.09
9438
1.22
3274
1.50
9501
1.87
1507
1.84
258
1.76
6273
1.82
7372
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.93
5411
1.02
1167
1.22
3764
1.45
7115
1.41
5932
1.34
2493
1.35
1402
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.32
1133
1.49
2295
1.90
2881
2.43
3802
2.42
5199
2.35
1492
2.42
3714
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
5879
120
161
175
185
179
155
Oce
an b
asin
Arctic
Oce
an1
1.07
794
1.11
8803
1.03
1441
1.19
854
1.35
7803
1.42
4298
1.54
2828
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.97
856
0.96
7883
0.83
3491
0.76
1469
0.87
7838
0.93
3275
0.94
5517
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.17
7113
1.28
991
1.22
7842
1.62
1245
1.88
7448
1.91
7453
2.19
7517
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
3239
5064
8376
7147
Atla
nticO
cean
11.09
2007
0.97
1313
0.90
5974
0.79
2417
0.68
2281
0.69
8429
0.69
0356
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.69
8235
0.60
3564
0.57
5761
0.49
9334
0.40
574
0.41
927
0.41
9878
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.56
8681
1.42
2385
1.31
1167
1.15
544
0.99
4336
1.03
2576
0.97
9962
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
1922
3041
4036
2423
Pacific
Oce
an1
0.97
1865
1.33
2155
1.87
0811
2.36
7528
2.38
9436
2.14
8445
2.11
3518
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.79
9362
1.04
0441
1.42
6487
1.72
7317
1.73
0009
1.53
118
1.51
2989
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.22
5136
1.79
3921
2.58
2133
3.39
8477
3.49
1577
3.35
6503
3.16
0392
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
1738
6590
9311
912
795
Beri
ng S
ea
Berin
gSe
a1
1.04
2088
1.48
759
1.96
7571
2.48
797
2.47
797
2.24
5908
2.23
5218
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.82
4813
1.13
8795
1.44
5061
1.83
258
1.86
2725
1.62
9392
1.58
9221
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.22
0889
2.04
5222
2.66
7079
3.40
3583
3.34
0541
3.17
2907
3.33
482
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
1233
5584
8710
811
690
47
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Mar
inem
inus
Ber
ingSe
a1
1.17
1356
1.18
3236
1.20
6308
1.34
7492
1.46
2441
1.52
6446
1.62
6274
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.98
1972
0.96
9959
0.90
0716
0.94
351
1.00
6895
1.07
1785
1.18
3513
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.44
3303
1.50
594
1.53
7158
1.94
7833
2.11
1479
2.17
8463
2.46
748
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
5666
9011
112
912
310
675
Berin
gbird
s1
0.71
6961
0.75
6647
0.79
5857
0.97
2427
0.96
1084
0.84
8746
0.83
9834
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.62
3031
0.65
2309
0.68
0874
0.74
8608
0.73
3071
0.62
605
0.57
0575
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.82
0872
0.87
1604
0.92
5849
1.26
0082
1.25
8951
1.15
9308
1.21
743
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
110
2134
3749
5437
Berin
gfis
hes
11.16
6061
1.93
7049
2.99
9204
3.71
9842
3.88
4403
3.57
3027
3.69
2198
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.76
1074
1.21
6892
1.78
5645
2.19
5324
2.24
9615
2.02
8019
2.05
3039
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.77
3337
3.08
2026
5.01
3473
6.34
9981
6.65
3324
6.30
5691
6.65
5616
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
58
1830
3035
4148
Berin
gm
amm
als
11.15
8352
1.78
1006
2.25
3052
3.04
9295
2.54
1555
2.26
7056
1.81
0252
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.06
2601
1.27
7659
1.48
4669
1.62
4318
1.29
5382
1.14
5237
0.90
6043
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.24
7532
2.57
333
3.46
961
5.74
6624
5.07
4001
4.57
4479
3.68
8465
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
615
1620
2024
215
Sea
ice
asso
ciat
ion
Not
assoc
iate
d1
1.08
0857
1.29
4591
1.61
341.93
5442
1.97
9779
1.89
2574
1.94
0091
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.88
611
1.09
9004
1.29
5827
1.46
4921
1.43
6947
1.44
2808
1.48
0081
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.26
6706
1.56
9791
2.06
2277
2.46
2768
2.61
3275
2.49
8851
2.63
102
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
6492
132
171
191
205
198
148
Seaiceas
sociated
11.43
8163
1.47
8786
1.21
5271
1.38
2608
1.82
3801
1.90
005
1.84
7834
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.21
3439
1.24
378
0.84
8826
0.89
7862
0.99
0532
0.96
9511
0.97
8472
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.69
1054
1.75
5737
1.69
4164
2.08
8947
3.27
1395
3.28
2895
3.40
3608
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
47
1324
2526
2417
Mar
ine
zone
Bent
hicfis
h1
0.84
7484
1.01
5729
1.45
1804
1.96
7326
2.13
6922
2.06
0795
2.35
9461
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.68
0872
0.78
0571
1.04
1065
1.32
2604
1.41
0522
1.34
0051
1.50
5985
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.03
4374
1.30
791
2.00
8178
2.97
9518
3.26
9703
3.20
2652
3.71
8174
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
1013
2232
3441
4647
48
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Bent
hope
lagicfis
h1
1.34
8473
1.65
1483
1.78
4157
2.39
8219
1.36
1894
1.37
5197
1.15
7641
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.68
7768
0.78
0432
0.74
494
0.89
4199
0.48
8127
0.43
6445
0.34
8927
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
2.83
3867
3.62
7184
4.59
0298
6.67
3504
3.99
5494
4.58
0171
4.05
2748
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
910
1316
1613
1111
Pelagicfis
h1
2.11
1073
1.59
7818
1.53
8582
3.26
7538
2.60
4642
2.73
313
2.37
8078
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.81
8447
0.56
5143
0.46
1006
0.70
1132
0.54
6403
0.52
764
0.45
5817
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
5.90
7668
4.84
943
5.62
7016
17.883
314
.593
5416
.293
6114
.549
02
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
57
1110
107
75
Plan
ktiv
orou
s fe
eder
s
Pisc
ivor
ousse
abird
s1
0.97
3779
1.06
8846
1.08
3051
0.90
3676
0.90
3919
0.82
6194
0.74
2729
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.86
7834
0.94
5021
0.95
4432
0.74
6605
0.73
5827
0.62
4446
0.51
7759
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.06
8693
1.17
199
1.20
7084
1.01
5262
1.06
6673
0.99
4613
1.00
9821
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
2842
6182
9191
8366
Pisc
ivor
ousfis
hes
11.34
8937
1.20
5521
1.90
8059
3.46
1609
3.64
4552
3.57
3729
4.16
1422
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.92
8582
0.71
0118
0.96
6247
1.85
0307
2.04
2281
1.99
8049
2.25
6241
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
2.15
2773
2.08
003
3.27
0981
6.79
9244
7.22
117
7.08
5897
7.72
6046
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
99
1526
2931
3129
Plan
ktivor
ousse
abird
s1
0.80
3552
0.87
4373
0.98
3917
1.72
2304
1.64
1129
1.62
533
1.94
3556
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.80
3552
0.75
156
0.83
6844
1.44
5102
1.33
1621
1.40
3463
1.54
2119
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.80
3552
0.95
5237
1.30
4581
2.41
8211
2.33
0629
2.49
7926
3.87
7701
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
01
613
1418
1716
Plan
ktivor
ousfis
hes
11.49
9526
2.09
6872
2.57
4555
3.09
4991
3.16
1776
3.21
2127
2.97
1525
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.78
4903
1.10
5678
1.26
009
1.43
6703
1.44
644
1.53
5758
1.36
0954
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
2.99
681
4.61
6229
5.29
6864
5.89
4302
5.86
2755
6.87
1211
6.15
2875
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
611
1614
1415
1715
Thre
ats
Unk
nown
11.01
4925
1.07
8858
0.98
7633
1.05
0691
1.08
9163
1.11
2435
1.02
7479
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.91
8452
0.96
2793
0.83
9148
0.75
0054
0.74
7863
0.75
0306
0.65
9168
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.12
3089
1.21
3615
1.14
8177
1.49
2938
1.60
4574
1.66
9382
1.61
2894
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
3146
7190
115
116
105
66
49
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Noth
reats
11.01
1811
1.45
1504
1.99
6786
3.20
8091
3.75
7376
3.59
1975
4.08
0581
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.70
798
0.90
1846
1.17
4586
1.79
7852
2.07
3388
1.96
1934
2.17
1151
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.39
634
2.30
7871
3.36
0468
5.65
6222
6.64
2041
6.46
3931
7.56
2862
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
717
1932
2635
3939
Any
thre
at1
1.16
2646
1.22
5217
1.44
617
1.53
271
1.39
0152
1.39
6481
1.37
2785
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.92
5443
0.94
7447
1.05
8939
1.09
8914
0.98
1926
0.97
4464
0.93
8049
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.50
7447
1.63
3341
2.02
6676
2.18
7835
2.00
7798
2.04
2104
2.04
1828
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
3036
5573
7580
7860
Prot
ecte
d ar
eas
Prot
ecte
dbird
s1
0.97
5835
1.09
1298
1.26
9578
1.33
1779
1.36
3661
1.28
2401
1.21
469
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.78
3012
0.86
3271
0.95
9008
0.97
2525
0.96
3008
0.89
1771
0.79
8613
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
1.17
6186
1.34
6428
1.66
6638
1.81
4192
1.90
2935
1.83
6861
1.83
2926
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
1728
4967
7278
7659
Unp
rote
cted
bird
s1
0.88
1982
1.03
2164
1.10
4786
1.07
4551
1.05
1463
0.99
8881
0.97
4174
Lower
con
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.79
6747
0.89
1092
0.93
0566
0.88
6453
0.84
260.78
9202
0.69
9173
Upp
ercon
fiden
cein
terv
al1
0.96
6151
1.20
4806
1.32
7638
1.31
2931
1.31
921.26
3694
1.45
2495
Num
bero
fpop
ulations
1519
2131
3941
3530
50A
ppen
dix
5: T
able
of p
opul
atio
n tr
ends
for n
ine
sea-
ice
asso
ciat
ed s
peci
es
Tren
dsare
bas
edonth
eov
erallc
hang
einpop
ulationsize
.
Spec
ies
Com
mon
nam
eLo
cati
on o
f mon
itor
ed p
opul
atio
nRe
fere
nce
Popu
lati
on tr
end
Bala
ena
mys
ticet
usBo
whe
adw
hale
Wes
tern
Arctic
sto
ck,A
lask
a(a.k.a.B
ering-
Chuk
chi-
Beau
fortsto
ck).
(Ang
liss&O
utlaw200
6)St
able/Po
sitiv
e
Bore
ogad
us sa
ida
Arctic
cod
Bare
ntsh
avet
(Micha
lsen
200
4;Stia
nsen
&Filin20
08)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Sa
gava
nirkto
kDelta
,Alask
a(G
riffith
set
al.19
98)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Del
phin
apte
rus l
euca
sBe
luga
wha
leCo
okIn
lets
tock
,Alask
a(M
MC20
02;A
nglis
s&O
utlaw200
8;A
llen&A
nglis
s20
10)
Neg
ative
Easter
nCh
ukch
iSea
Sto
ck,A
lask
a(N
OAAFishe
ries:O
ffice
ofP
rote
cted
Res
ources
199
9)Neg
ative
Easter
nHud
sonBa
ypo
pulatio
n(D
FO200
5)Neg
ative
Nor
tonSo
und,A
lask
a(D
eMas
tere
t al.20
01)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Mon
odon
mon
ocer
osNar
wha
lHud
sonBa
y,Can
ada
(COSE
WIC
200
4)St
able/Po
sitiv
e
Odo
benu
s ros
mar
usPa
cific
walru
sBe
ringan
dCh
ukch
iSea
sof
Alask
aan
dRu
ssia
(Gar
ner1
995;N
OAA201
0a)
Neg
ative
Pago
phila
ebu
rnea
Ivor
ygu
llFran
z-Jo
sefL
and
(Ank
er-N
ilsse
net
al.20
00)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Vario
usin
Can
ada,G
reen
land
,Rus
sia,N
orway
(m
idpo
intlatitu
debelow
)(C
AFF
200
8)Neg
ative
Pusa
his
pida
Ring
edsea
lEa
ster
nBe
aufo
rtSea
(Stir
ling20
02)
Neg
ative
Uria
lom
via
Thick-bille
dgu
illem
otBe
zym
yann
ayaba
y(K
rasn
ove
t al.19
95)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Hor
noya
(Ank
er-N
ilsse
net
al.20
00)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
KapBr
ewster
(Falk&Kam
pp199
7)Neg
ative
Khar
lovIsland
(Krasn
ove
t al.19
95)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Svalba
rd(A
nker
-Nils
sen
et a
l.20
00)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
BuldirIsland
(Drago
oet
al.20
00;D
rago
oet
al.20
08)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
StG
eorg
eIsland
,Prib
ilofs
(Drago
oet
al.20
00;D
rago
oet
al.20
08)
Neg
ative
StPau
lIslan
d,Prib
ilofs
(Drago
oet
al.20
00;D
rago
oet
al.20
08)
Neg
ative
Hafna
berg
,Sou
th-W
estIce
land
(Garoa
rsso
n&Zoc
ker2
006)
Neg
ative
Krisuv
ikur
berg
(Kris
uvik),SW
Icelan
d(G
aroa
rsso
n&Zoc
ker2
006)
Neg
ative
Skor
uvik,N
EIcelan
d(G
aroa
rsso
n&Zoc
ker2
006)
Neg
ative
CoatsIsland
,Nun
avut
(Gas
ton
et a
l.20
08b)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Prince
Leo
poldIs
land
,Nun
avut
(Gas
ton
et a
l.20
08b)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
51
Spec
ies
Com
mon
nam
eLo
cati
on o
f mon
itor
ed p
opul
atio
nRe
fere
nce
Popu
lati
on tr
end
HallIslan
d,A
lask
a(D
rago
oet
al.20
08)
Neg
ative
St.L
awre
nceIsland
(Drago
oet
al.20
08)
Neg
ative
Urs
us m
ariti
mus
Polarb
ear
Chuk
chi/B
eringSe
aSt
ock
(U.S.F
ishan
dW
ildlifeSe
rviceMar
ineMam
mals
Man
agem
ent2
002;N
OAA201
0b)
Neg
ative
Alask
anSto
ck(U
.S.F
ishan
dW
ildlifeSe
rviceMar
ineMam
mals
Man
agem
ent2
002)
Neg
ative
Wrang
elIs
land
State
Natur
eRe
serv
e(D
eroc
here
t al.19
97)
Neg
ative
Sout
hern
Bea
ufor
tpop
ulation
(IUCN
200
1;IU
CN/S
SCPolarBea
rSpe
cialistG
roup
20
10)
Neg
ative
Wes
tern
Hud
sonBa
ypo
pulatio
n(A
ars
et a
l.20
05)
Neg
ative
Sout
hern
Hud
sonba
ypo
pulatio
n(O
bbard
et a
l.20
07)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Nor
ther
nbe
aufo
rtsea
pop
ulation
(Stir
ling
et a
l.20
07)
Stab
le/Po
sitiv
e
Baffi
nBa
y(IU
CN/S
SCPolarBea
rSpe
cialistG
roup
201
0)Neg
ative
Dav
isstrait
(IUCN
/SSC
PolarBea
rSpe
cialistG
roup
201
0)St
able/Po
sitiv
e
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