the asian century so far: china and india in recent asian trade patterns jayati ghosh presentation...
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The “Asian century” so far:China and India in recent Asian trade patterns
Jayati Ghosh
Presentation for IDEAs Conference onIndia and China in the World Economy
New Delhi, 24 January 2008
Direction of China's exports
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Developed economies Developing Asia
China's exports to developed countries (per cent of total exports)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Asia-Pacific Europe North America
Share of China's exports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia West Asia
Source of imports to China
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Industrial countries Developing Asia
Share of of total Chinese imports)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
South Korea Hong Kong China Taiwan China Singapore
Share of of total Chinese imports)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
India's share of imports to China
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
China's main exports ($ bn)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mineral products Chemical products
Textiles and textile articles Footwear & headgear
Base metals & articles Machinery, appliances & equipment
Transport equipment Instruments
China's main imports
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mineral products Chemical products
Plastics & rubber Base metals & articles
Machinery, appliances & equipment Instruments
Exports and imports of machinery, appliances and equipment
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Exports Imports
Total merchandise trade of China and India
$ million 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 China's exports 249203 325600 438230 593320 761950 India's exports 2036 2551 2934 3619 4457 China's imports 225094 295170 412760 561230 659950 India's imports 2309 2972 3591 4783 6208
Share of India's exports
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Industrial countries Asian developing countries
Share of India's exports
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
EU Japan US
Shart of India's exports
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
China Hongkong China
Share of India's imports
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Industrial countries Asian developing countries
Share of India's imports
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
China Hongkong China Oil exporters South Korea Malaysia
Main exports of India
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mineral products
Chemical products
Textiles & textile articles
Gems & jewellery
Base metals & articles
Machinery, appliances &equipment
Main imports of India
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mineral products
Chemical products
Plastics & rubber
Textiles & textile articles
Gems & jewellery
Base metals & articles
Machinery, appliances &equipment
Recent intra-regional investment
• In 2005 and 2006, 55 per cent of cross-border M&As by MNCs from the region were to other countries in developing Asia (compared to 40 per cent in 2004).
• Chinese FDI in ASEAN rising fast, adding to FDI from Hong Kong China.
• Mainly focused on energy, then infrastructure and services, including banking.
• China is now largest source of FDI in Cambodia and Lao PDR.
• Outward FDI mainly resource-seeking; inward FDI mainly market-seeking.