The Atmospheric SciencesEntering the 21st Century

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and ClimateNational Research Council

1998

A Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information

Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services

3 December 2001

A Summary of

Tropical and Polar Air CurrentsRobert Fitzroy, The Weather, 1863

NOAA Library

Earliest Signal Service weather map on record in NOAA Library September 1, 1872

Re-analysis, Tor Bergeron, 1933

ENIAC

Electronic Numerical Integrator and Calculator

First numerical weather forecast--March 195024 hours

Quasi-geostgrophic barotropic vorticity equation

2005

2010

ASCI White

Pacific

EDSAC 1

UNIVAC 1

IBM 7090

CDC 6600

IBM 360/195CDC 7600

Cray 1

Cray X-MPCray 2

TMC CM-2

TMC CM-5 Cray T3D

ASCI Red

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1 KFlop/s

1 MFlop/s

1 GFlop/s

1 TFlop/s

1 PFlop/s

Scalar

Super Scalar

Vector

Parallel

Super Scalar/Vector/ParallelMoore’s Law

Jack DongarraUniv. of Tennesee

10^3

10^6

10^9

PC Transistors

Data Traffic and Storage

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Terabytes/month

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Storage Petabytes/month

Internet traffic (US)

Worldwide hard disc storage

Voice (US)

Coffman & OdlyzkoAT&T Labswww.research.att.com

Atmospheric Observations

Global Data Coverage

2001

Surface 8998 Obs

Radiosonde 1197

Aircraft 10310

Tiros Sounder12829

Sat Winds 6270

SSMI 7101

00 UTC 11/29/01

Observations + Equations

+ Computers Produce Forecasts

Contemporary Realities, Key Ideas Observations, analysis, and models are inseparably linked and must be improved together

Observational and information technologies present new challenges and opportunities

Atmospheric information services are becoming more distributed

Scientific opportunities exceed resources; choices must be made

Leadership and coordination are necessary for the atmospheric sciences to contribute to national goals

The BASC 21st Century Vision

Improvements in atmospheric observations and scientific understanding will combine with advances in technology to enhance atmospheric analysis and prediction.

Society will enjoy greater confidence in atmospheric information and will manage weather and climate risk more decisively and with greater sophistication.

Advances in information technology will foster broaderand more effective use of atmospheric services.

Acquiring

the information

Imperatives for Atmospheric Science

Imperative 1. Optimize and integrate global observation capabilities

Imperative 2. Develop new observation capabilities

Optimize Observations...

Develop a specific plan for optimizing and integrating global observations and models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land.

Monitor weather, climate, and air quality, and obtain the information needed to improve the predictive numerical models used for weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and near-Earth space activities.

Examine proposed configurations with rigorous observing system simulation experiments.

Optimize Observations (cont)

Commercial aircraft observations Global positioning system (GPS) Adaptive strategies

Integration with modeling efforts Increases in computer power Assimilation of new forms of data (radiance, EOS) Multiple uses of data bases International collaboration

New observing opportunities

Issues and requirements

Develop New Observation Capabilities

Commit to a strategy, priorities, and a program

to develop new capabilities for observing critical

variables such as

water in all its phases,

wind,

aerosols and key chemical constituents, and

near-Earth space phenomena

all on

temporal and spatial scales

relevant to forecasts and

applications

Broaden our Capabilities

Improve understanding of atmospheric interactions with other components of the Earth System and enhance understanding of interactions between atmospheric phenomena of different scales (USWRP and USGCP).

Apply the discipline of forecasting (predict, verify, learn from errors) with experimental forecasts in atmospheric chemistry, climate, and space weather.

Weather and Climate

Forecasts

Risk andFinancialModels

Decisions and Actions

Atmospheric Observations and Information

Distributing and using

atmospheric information

GOVERNMENTWarningsForecasts

Observations

PUBLIC & PRIVATEWX & CX

INFORMATIONUSERS

UNIVERSITY, FEDERAL, PRIVATE

RESEARCH

New Capabilities

WX INFORMATIONFIRMS

Specialized analysesand forecasts

COMMUNICATIONS

Media

Networks

The AtmosphericSciences and Services

Partnership

The AtmosphericScience and Services

Partnership

Leadership and Management

Develop a strategic viewpoint to maximize the benefits of an increasingly distributed national and global structure for providing atmospheric information.

Maintain the free and open exchange of weather observations between nations.

Enhance the flows of information between the partners in atmospheric science and services and to the public.

The Classical Forecast - Decision System

NWS ComputerForecasts

HumanForecaster

DecisionMaker

AtmosphericVariables

Forecastand Advice

SelectAction

NWS Private Sector

The New Era Forecast - Decision System

Private NumericalAnalysis

Integration With Risk

Models

Decision Maker

ConfirmAction

Decision Process

4-D Impact Variables and Decision Aids

NWS

Private Sector

NWS ComputerForecasts

4-D Atmospheric

Variables

Forecast skill and potential risk

0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 1000000.01Days

Forecast Skill

Potential Risk

Ris

k o

r C

ost

Ski

ll

JAD 15 October 2001

Wx & Cx Sensitive GDP components 1999

Industries (SIC 1987)

GDP

Components

($B)

Weather

Sensitive

Components

($B)

Agriculture, forestry, fishing 125 125

Mining 112 94

Construction 416 416

Manufacturing 1501

Transportation, public utilities 780 743

Wholesale trade 643

Retail trade 856 856

Finance, insurance, real estate 1792 317

Services 1987 162

Total 8212 2713

Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis

JAD 15 October 2001

0.1 1 10 100 1000

Days

Forecasts Climatology

Basis for Weather Risk Strategies and Actions

0

100

Wei

gh

tin

g (

per

cen

t)

TerabitNetwork

ObservationsObservations

NWSNWS

ResearchResearch Users, PartnersUsers, Partners

A TerascaleWorldA TerascaleWorld

TeraflopComputers

Some laws of information… Information is not conserved--it multiplies.

We can all use the same information without wearing it out.

Some of us convert information into more valuable forms, some do not.

A lot of ‘information’ is wrong, some of it thanks to computer routines.

Information flows both downhill and uphill.

Information frustrates almost all attempts at confinement, and yet fills all available hard discs.

Trying to stop the flow of information is like trying to stop the tide.

The challenge...

integrate and optimize observations and modeling

work together in an increasingly distributed atmospheric information system

acquire the resources for scientific advance

and then drive to results and improved service

To achieve the vision of significantly improved atmospheric information and services, we must

PetabitNetwork

ObservationsObservations

NWSNWS

ResearchResearch Users, PartnersUsers, Partners

A PetascaleWorldA PetascaleWorld

TeraflopComputers