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The Attractiveness of Central Eastern European Countries for Venture Capital and Private Equity Investors Alexander Peter Groh*, Heinrich von Liechtenstein**, and Karsten Lieser*** Abstract We address the attractiveness of Central Eastern European countries for Venture Capital and Private Equity investors by the construction of a composite index. For the index’s composition we refer to the results of numerous prior research papers that investigate relevant parameters determining entrepreneurial activity and/or the engagements of institutional investors. We aggregate the index via five different methods and receive country rankings that vary only slightly, signaling a robust index calculation. We benchmark the Central Eastern European countries with the EU 15 countries, Norway and Switzerland and identify six tier groups of attractiveness for all of our sample countries. We compare our index with the actual Venture Capital and Private Equity activities in the individual countries and reveal a reasonable correlation of both figures. The results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the particular economies and provide guidelines for policy improvements to attract Venture Capital and Private Equity and hence, to spur innovation, entrepreneurship, employment, and growth. JEL codes: G23, G24, M13, O16, P34, P52 Keywords: Central Eastern Europe, Economic Transition, Venture Capital, Private Equity *corresponding author, GSCM Montpellier Business School, 2300 Avenue des Moulins, 34185 Montpellier Cedex 4, France, [email protected] and IESE Business School – University of Navarra, Finance Department, Av. Pearson, 21, 08034 Barcelona, Spain **IESE Business School – University of Navarra, Finance Department, Av. Pearson, 21, 08034 Barcelona, Spain, [email protected] *** IESE Business School – University of Navarra, Finance Department, Av. Pearson, 21, 08034 Barcelona, Spain, [email protected]

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  • The Attractiveness of Central Eastern European Countries for

    Venture Capital and Private Equity Investors

    Alexander Peter Groh*, Heinrich von Liechtenstein**, and Karsten Lieser***

    Abstract

    We address the attractiveness of Central Eastern European countries for Venture Capital and

    Private Equity investors by the construction of a composite index. For the index’s

    composition we refer to the results of numerous prior research papers that investigate

    relevant parameters determining entrepreneurial activity and/or the engagements of

    institutional investors. We aggregate the index via five different methods and receive

    country rankings that vary only slightly, signaling a robust index calculation. We

    benchmark the Central Eastern European countries with the EU 15 countries, Norway and

    Switzerland and identify six tier groups of attractiveness for all of our sample countries. We

    compare our index with the actual Venture Capital and Private Equity activities in the

    individual countries and reveal a reasonable correlation of both figures. The results highlight

    the strengths and weaknesses of the particular economies and provide guidelines for policy

    improvements to attract Venture Capital and Private Equity and hence, to spur innovation,

    entrepreneurship, employment, and growth.

    JEL codes: G23, G24, M13, O16, P34, P52

    Keywords: Central Eastern Europe, Economic Transition, Venture Capital, Private Equity

    *corresponding author, GSCM Montpellier Business School, 2300 Avenue des Moulins,

    34185 Montpellier Cedex 4, France, [email protected] and IESE Business

    School – University of Navarra, Finance Department, Av. Pearson, 21, 08034 Barcelona,

    Spain

    **IESE Business School – University of Navarra, Finance Department, Av. Pearson, 21,

    08034 Barcelona, Spain, [email protected]

    *** IESE Business School – University of Navarra, Finance Department, Av. Pearson, 21,

    08034 Barcelona, Spain, [email protected]

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

  • The Attractiveness of Central Eastern European Countries for

    Venture Capital and Private Equity Investors

    Abstract

    We address the attractiveness of Central Eastern European countries for Venture Capital and

    Private Equity investors by the construction of a composite index. For the index’s

    composition we refer to the results of numerous prior research papers that investigate

    relevant parameters determining entrepreneurial activity and/or the engagements of

    institutional investors. We aggregate the index via five different methods and receive

    country rankings that vary only slightly, signaling a robust index calculation. We

    benchmark the Central Eastern European countries with the EU 15 countries, Norway and

    Switzerland and identify six tier groups of attractiveness for all of our sample countries. We

    compare our index with the actual Venture Capital and Private Equity activities in the

    individual countries and reveal a reasonable correlation of both figures. The results highlight

    the strengths and weaknesses of the particular economies and provide guidelines for policy

    improvements to attract Venture Capital and Private Equity and hence, to spur innovation,

    entrepreneurship, employment, and growth.

    JEL codes: G23, G24, M13, O16, P34, P52

    Keywords: Central Eastern Europe, Economic Transition, Venture Capital, Private Equity

  • 1

    1. Introduction

    The Central Eastern European (CEE)1 countries are still in a transitional stage. EBRD

    (2005) emphasizes that improvements in governance, enterprise restructuring, and the

    financial sector have been the main features of the transition process in the last years. The

    CEE countries lessened the burden of business regulation, such as licensing and tax

    administration, and they progressed in reducing corruption and organized crime. EBRD

    (2006) highlights that the speed of the transition process varies in each country; some of

    them show strong attempts to reform while others have decreased the pace of reform, partly

    influenced by lately elected new governments.

    Kolodko (2000) and Wagner and Hlouskova (2005) argue that the CEE countries are in a

    period of catch-up that might last for several decades. This view is typically based on the

    observation that per-capita GDP are still below the level of the current EU member states,

    while education in CEE countries is at a high level, and institutional structures have been

    converging for some time, as Süppel (2003) highlights. Growth estimates above the

    European average, and the policy will to promote innovative enterprises should lead to a

    strong demand for risk capital in the CEE countries and hence, to a high attractiveness for

    Venture Capital and Private Equity (VC/PE) investors.

    Hellmann and Puri (2000), and Kortum and Lerner (2000) show that VC/PE-backed

    companies are more efficient innovators, and Belke et al. (2003), and Fehn and Fuchs

    (2003) prove that they create more employment and growth than their peers. Levine (1997)

    documents well the role of VC/PE funds in fostering innovative firms, and indeed, there

    now exists a broad consensus that a strong VC/PE culture is a cornerstone for

    commercialization and innovation in modern economies. Hence, policymakers should focus

    on the creation of an adequate setting for a prospering VC/PE market to support

    entrepreneurial activities and growth, especially in transition countries. However, the risk

    capital supply is rather small compared to other European economies and relative to the

    1 We define CEE countries as those Central Eastern European countries that lately (i.e. 2004, and 2007 respectively) accessed the European Union, namely Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Baltic States, including Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

  • 2

    expected growth opportunities in the CEE countries, even if institutional investors are

    increasingly looking internationally for new investment opportunities. The first funds were

    raised shortly after the fall of communism. According to EVCA (2004, 2005 and 2006),

    since then only a little more than € 9bn have been raised by VC/PE funds dedicated to CEE

    countries. This raises questions about the reasons that constrain the development of the

    VC/PE market in that region.

    In this paper, we address the attractiveness of the CEE countries for VC/PE investors by

    means of the construction of a composite index. For the index’ composition we refer to the

    results of numerous prior research papers that investigate relevant parameters determining

    entrepreneurial activity and/or the engagements of institutional investors. We aggregate the

    information to the index via five different methods. As benchmarks, we also calculate the

    index scores for the 15 countries that belonged to the European Union before May 1st 2004

    (the EU-15 countries), and for the non-EU countries Switzerland and Norway. As a result,

    we obtain a ranking of all the individual economies based on their attractiveness for VC/PE

    allocation by institutional investors. The rankings vary only slightly with the five different

    index calculation methods, signaling a robust index definition. We clearly identify six tier

    groups of attractiveness for all of our sample countries and three tier groups for the CEE

    countries, that all rank below the EU-15 average. We compare our index with the

    fundraising activities in the individual countries and reveal a reasonable correlation of both

    figures.

    Policy makers will benefit from our results by realizing the weaknesses of their countries to

    attract international VC and PE. Improvements of the revealed weaknesses shall lead to

    more supply of risk capital and will hence spur innovation, entrepreneurship, employment,

    and growth.

    The paper is structured as follows: After a brief introduction to our assumptions about

    supply and demand in the VC/PE market, we review the most important related literature,

    and discuss the relevant parameters for our model. Next, we explain the data and the

    technical background for our index calculations. We verify the appropriateness of the sub-

    indicators included, and discuss different normalization techniques, weighting, and

    aggregation methods. Then, we present the index’s results, the strengths, and weaknesses of

    the individual countries, perform robustness checks and determine tier groups regarding the

  • 3

    attractiveness of the various economies for VC/PE investors. Finally, we summarize this

    paper.

    2. Supply and Demand in the VC/PE Market

    Models and conditions for achieving equilibrium in supply and demand in a VC/PE market

    are comprehensively discussed in Gompers and Lerner (1998), Balboa and Martí (2003),

    and Jeng and Wells (2000). We assume that the institutional investors supplying VC/PE

    analyze several economies and choose among them for their international asset allocation.

    The usual fundraising process implies, and statistics on supply and demand for VC/PE, such

    as EVCA (2006) confirm this, that usually there is no lack of supply of funds. On the

    contrary, the amount of funds raised in a particular year is generally higher than the amount

    invested in the same period, and the funds raised are invested progressively in subsequent

    years. This leads us to conclude that the suppliers of capital estimate the demand for VC/PE

    with a one-to two-year horizon and make their allocations accordingly. Consequently, they

    judge the individual countries’ attractiveness, which is determined primarily by expectations

    about the ability of local VC/PE funds to perform a sufficient number of transactions with

    satisfactory risk and return ratios. Hence, the predominant issue regarding the attractiveness

    of a particular region for an institutional investor is probably the availability of adequate

    investment opportunities. These opportunities are probably depending on local

    entrepreneurial activities and are associated, among other factors, with innovations,

    restructurings, the size of the economy, growth expectations, and the entrepreneurial spirit

    of people. However, it is not clear to what extent these and related factors influence the

    attractiveness of individual economies for investors in VC/PE funds. Therefore, in the

    following section, we provide an overview of the literature dealing with success factors for

    entrepreneurial activities, and the volume of VC/PE investments.

    3. Literature Review

    Intuitively, the state of a particular country’s economy affects VC/PE activities. Gompers

    and Lerner (1998) point out that there are more attractive opportunities for entrepreneurs if

    the economy is growing quickly. Wilken (1979) argues that economic development

    facilitates entrepreneurship as it provides a greater accumulation of capital for investments.

    The ease of start-ups is expected to be related to societal wealth, not only due to the

  • 4

    availability of start-up financing, but also to higher income among potential customers in

    the domestic market. Romain and van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie (2004) find that VC/PE

    activity is cyclical and significantly related to GDP growth.

    Likewise, Jeng and Wells (2000) stress that the main force behind the cyclical swings is the

    IPO activity because it reflects the potential return to the VC/PE funds. Kaplan and Schoar

    (2005) confirm this. Black and Gilson (1998), and Gompers and Lerner (2000) point out

    that risk capital flourishes in countries with deep and liquid stock markets. Schertler (2003)

    uses either the capitalization of stock markets or the number of listed firms as a measure for

    the liquidity of stock markets. He finds that the liquidity of stock markets has a significant

    positive impact on VC investments at early stages.

    The availability of debt financing is another entry key for start-ups, and, emphasized by

    Greene (1998), in many countries it is the most important entrepreneurial obstacle.

    Entrepreneurs need to find backers who are willing to bear this risk, like banks or VC/PE

    funds. Hellmann et al. (2004) argue that banks represent the dominant financial institutions

    in most of the countries. They examine the role of banks for the VC/PE industry and stress

    that banks invest in VC/PE mainly for strategic reasons. They try to build early relationships

    for future lending activities. Cetorelli and Gambera (2001) provide evidence that bank

    concentration promotes the growth of those industrial sectors that have a higher need of

    external finance by facilitating credit access to younger firms.

    Additionally, the VC/PE activity in a particular country relates to the status of the VC/PE

    market’s maturity level. Sapienza et al. (1996) mention that acceptance in a country’s

    society and the historical evolvement of its VC/PE market determine investor confidence.

    Balboa and Martí (2003) find that annual fundraising volume is dependent on the previous

    year’s market liquidity. Chemla (2005) argues that the management of VC/PE funds is

    costly. Particular regions become attractive to investors when the transaction volumes and

    expected payoffs exceed a certain amount to cover the management fees.

    Legal structures and the protection of property rights also appear to influence the

    attractiveness of a VC/PE market. La Porta et al. (1997 and 1998) confirm that the legal

    environment strongly determines the size and extent of a country’s capital market and local

    firms’ ability to receive outside financing. They emphasize the difference between law on

    books and the quality of law enforcement in some countries. Glaeser et al. (2001), Djankov

  • 5

    et al. (2003 and 2005) suggest that parties in common-law countries have greater ease in

    enforcing their rights from commercial contracts. However, Cumming et al. (2006a) find

    that the quality of a country’s legal system is stronger connected to facilitating VC/PE

    backed exits than the size of a country’s stock market. Cumming et al (2006b) extend this

    finding and show that cross-country differences in legality, including legal origin and

    accounting standards, have a significant impact on the governance of investments in the

    VC/PE industry. Desai et al. (2006) discuss that fairness and property rights protection

    largely determine the growth and emergence of new enterprises. Cumming and Johan

    (2007) highlight that the perceived importance of regulatory harmonization increases

    institutional investors’ allocations to the asset class. La Porta et al. (2002) find lower cost of

    capital for companies in countries with better investor protection. Lerner and Schoar (2005)

    confirm these findings. Johnson et al. (1999) show that weak property rights limit the

    reinvestment of profits in start-up firms. Even so, Knack and Keefer (1995), Mauro (1995),

    and Svensson (1998) demonstrate that property rights significantly affect investments and

    economic growth.

    Gompers and Lerner (1998) stress that the capital gains tax rate influences VC/PE activity.

    In fact, they confirm Poterba’s finding (1989), who builds a decision-model to become

    entrepreneur. Bruce (2000 and 2002), and Cullen and Gordon (2002) prove that taxes matter

    for businesses entry and exit. Bruce and Gurley (2005) explain that increases in the tax rates

    on wages raise the probability of becoming an entrepreneur. Hence, the difference between

    personal income tax rates and corporate tax rates tends to be an incentive to create self-

    employment.

    Rigid labor market policies negatively affect the evolvement of a VC/PE market. Lazear

    (1990), and Blanchard (1997) discuss how protection of workers can reduce employment

    and growth. Black and Gilson (1998) show that variations in labor market restrictions

    correlate with VC/PE activity.

    Djankov et al. (2002) investigate the role of administrative and bureaucratic burdens for

    start-ups in different countries. They conclude that the highest barriers and costs are

    associated with corruption, a larger unofficial economy, and bureaucratic delay. Baughn and

    Neupert (2003) argue that bureaucracy in form of excessive rules and procedural

    requirements, multiple institutions from which approvals are needed, and numerous

    documentation requirements may severely constrain entrepreneurial activity. Lee and

  • 6

    Peterson (2000) stress that the time and money required to meet such administrative burdens

    may discourage new venture creations.

    Access to viable investments is probably the most important factor for the attractiveness of a

    regional VC/PE market. In order to foster a growing risk capital industry, Megginson (2004)

    argues that R&D culture, especially in universities or national laboratories, plays an

    important role. Gompers and Lerner (1998) show that both industrial and academic R&D

    expenditure is significantly correlated with VC/PE activity. Kortum and Lerner (2000)

    highlight that the growth in VC/PE fundraising in the mid-90s may be due to a surge of

    patents in the late 1980s and 1990s. Schertler (2003) emphasizes that the number of

    employees in the field of R&D, and the number of patents, as an approximation of the

    human capital endowment, has a positive and highly significant influence on VC/PE

    activity. Furthermore, Romain and von Pottelsberghe de la Potterie (2004) find that the level

    of entrepreneurship interacts with the R&D capital stock, with technological opportunities,

    and the number of patents. Lee and Peterson (2000), and Baughn and Neupert (2003) argue

    that national cultures shape both individual orientation and environmental conditions, which

    lead to different levels of entrepreneurial activity in particular countries.

    Summarizing this literature overview, we identify six key drivers determining the

    attractiveness of an individual country for VC/PE investors: economic activity, size and

    liquidity of capital markets, taxation, investor protection and corporate governance, human

    and social environment, and entrepreneurial opportunities. We also refer to these key drivers

    as level 1 indexes. To proxy the desired characteristics of these latent variables we find 42

    different sub-indicators, which we can group into lower index levels (level 2 and 3). These

    indicators are available for every individual sample country and ultimately determine its

    attractiveness for VC/PE investors. We will describe the data and the framework for the

    index aggregation in the following chapter.

    4. Data and Aggregation Methodology

    4.1 Data Sample

    In general, composite indicators are used to summarize a number of underlying individual

    indicators or variables. An indicator is a quantitative or qualitative measure derived from a

    series of observed facts that can reveal or proxy characteristics. To ensure that our cross-

  • 7

    country aggregations are comparable, we deflate variables by the sizes of the

    economies/countries and use either GDP or population as deflators.

    We use several databases with yearly data ranging from 2000 to 2005 and usually refer to

    the last data record. Some of the data-points are averages over a certain time-period to

    smooth fluctuations. GDP figures, PE activity or M&A transaction volume among others

    are such averages considering the period from 2000 to 2005. For large fluctuations and large

    differences between the countries we also use logs of the averages (please refer to the

    legend of table 1 for detailed information). In less than one percent of all cases, data was not

    available for a certain year. If data-points are missing, we apply the three methods suggested

    by Nardo et al. (2005a) in the following order: a) We try to find missing data in other

    databases or via the Internet, b) we interpolate between the adjacent data records, and c) we

    use the latest available data before 2005.

    However, we do not always use raw data but sometimes refer to ready-made indexes like

    the “doing business indexes” from the World Bank.2 For instance, our indicator for investor

    protection and corporate governance is a ready-made index. The following table 1 presents

    all the raw data and ready-made indexes and their sources (resp. alternative databases if

    data-points are missing), we use to determine the “Venture Capital and Private Equity

    Attractiveness Index” (VC/PEAI). For descriptions of the individual index items, we refer to

    the sources, where comprehensive definitions and descriptions of the data series are

    available.

    Table 1: VC/PEAI – List of raw data and ready-made indexes and their sources

    1 Economic activity 1.1 Gross Domestic Product 1.1.1 Total GDP [€/capita]* Global Market Inform. Database 1.1.2 Total GDP y-o-y growth [%]** Global Market Inform. Database 1.2 General Price Level [Index=1995]*** Global Market Inform. Database 1.3 Working force (unemployment rate) [%]* Global Market Inform. Database 1.4 Foreign direct investment, net inflows [% of GDP]*** Global Market Inform. Database 2 Capital market 2.1 IPO [IPO volume in % of GDP]**** Thomson Financial Data 2.2 Stock market 2.2.1 Stock market capitalization [% of GDP]* Worldbank Data

    2 See http://www.doingbusiness.org.

  • 8

    2.2.2 Stock Market Total Value Traded / GDP [% of GDP]* Worldbank Data2.3 M&A market [sales % of GDP]* Global Market Inform. Database 2.4 Debt & Credit market 2.4.1 Central bank discount rate [%]* IMF2.4.2 Private Credit by Deposit Money Banks and Other

    Financial Institutions [% of GDP]* Worldbank Data

    2.4.3 Number of Banks [per Capita] EBRD, EUROSTAT Database2.5 Private equity activity [funds invested in % of GDP]**** Thomson Financial Data3 Taxation 3.1 Highest marginal tax rate, corporate rate (%) Worldbank Data 3.2 Difference between income and corporate tax rate [%] The Heritage Foundation 4 Investor protection and corporate governance 4.1 Extent of disclosure index Worldbank Data 4.2 Extent of director liability index Worldbank Data 4.3 Ease of shareholder suits index Worldbank Data5 Human & social environment 5.1 Education 5.1.1 Government expenditure on education, total [% of GDP]* Global Market Inform. Database 5.1.2 Amount employes as researcher in the university sector

    [per capita]EUROSTAT

    5.1.3 Amount university students [per capita]* Global Market Inform. Database 5.1.4 Amount university establishements [per capita] Global Market Inform. Database 5.2 Labor regulations 5.2.1 Rigidity of employment 5.2.1.1 Difficulty of hiring index Worldbank Data5.2.1.2 Rigidity of hours index Worldbank Data5.2.1.3 Difficulty of firing index Worldbank Data5.2.2 Hiring cost [% of salary] Worldbank Data5.2.3 Firing costs [weeks of wages] Worldbank Data5.3 Bribing & corruption index Transparency5.4 Crime 5.4.1 Juvenile offenders [per capita]* Global Market Inform. Database 5.4.2 Offences [per 100,000 habitants]* Global Market Inform. Database 6 Entrepreneurial opportunities 6.1 General Innovativeness Index TrendChart.Cordis6.2 R&D expenditure 6.2.1 Public R&D expenditures [% of GDP] EUROSTAT, OECD6.2.2 Business R&D expenditures [% of GDP] EUROSTAT, OECD6.3 Enterprise restructuring 6.3.1 Small-scale privatisation index EBRD 6.3.2 Large-scale privatisation index EBRD 6.3.3 Governance and enterprice restructuring index EBRD 6.4 Enterprise stock activity 6.4.1 Number of enterprises [per capita] World Bank, EUROSTAT, OECD 6.4.2 Enterprise foundation rate [%]* World Bank, EUROSTAT, OECD 6.5 Burden: Starting a Business 6.5.1 Procedures [numbers] Worldbank Data 6.5.2 Time [days] Worldbank Data 6.5.3 Cost of business start-up procedures [% GNI per capita] Worldbank Data 6.5.4 Min. capital [% of income per capita] Worldbank Data

    * = arithmetic average of annual data from 2000 to 2005, ** = geometric average of annual data from 2000 to 2005, *** = log of arithmetic average of annual data from 2000 to 2005, **** = arithmetic average of annual data since coverage in the database for CEE countries, arithmetic

    average of annual data from 2003 to 2005 for the other countries,

    otherwise: 2005 data record.

    http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/HiringFiringWorkers/http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/HiringFiringWorkers/http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/HiringFiringWorkers/http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/HiringFiringWorkers/http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/HiringFiringWorkers/http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/HiringFiringWorkers/http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/http://trendchart.cordis.lu/http://trendchart.cordis.lu/http://trendchart.cordis.lu/http://trendchart.cordis.lu/http://trendchart.cordis.lu/http://trendchart.cordis.lu/

  • We choose the 42 sub-indicators according to the referenced literature and according to our

    comprehensive search of adequate data-series to proxy the latent variables. However, the

    selection of the index-items is arguable. Additional data-series might be included some

    might be discarded, or exchanged against others. We propose our selection and emphasize

    that changes of particular data-series do not meaningfully affect the overall results. The

    results are stable due to the magnitude of index-items and due to the index consistency, as

    proofed by the reported and unreported robustness checks.

    Due to the large number of index items (42), and data-points (105) per country (including

    the data records over a certain period to calculate the averages), we follow the method

    proposed by Nicoletti et al. (2000) and determine a pyramidal structure of three sub-index

    levels for the index aggregation (see Figure A1 in the Appendix). We group the items that

    we expect to correlate with each other. The main advantage of this pyramidal structure is

    that we can trace back indicator values to increasing levels of detail. This will help in

    interpreting the strengths and weaknesses of the individual countries and in drawing up the

    conclusions.

    Using this composition technique, we have to prove that the raw data and the ready-made

    indexes are consistent for their aggregation. Thus, we perform a reliability analysis of all the

    individual items, using Cronbach’s Alpha to ascertain the consistency of the chosen data.

    This procedure is described in the subsequent section.

    4.2 Analysis of Index Consistency

    Cronbach’s Alpha3 is a measure of internal consistency of items in a model or survey.4 It

    assesses how well a set of items measures a single one-dimensional object

    (unidimensionality). Here, we use it to approve the consistency of our index and all the sub-

    indexes we aggregate. Cronbach’s Alpha is defined as:

    ( )RnRn

    11 −+=α (1).

    3 Cf. Cronbach (1951). 4 Cf. Raykov (1998), Cortina (1993), Feldt et al. (1987), Green et al. (1977), Hattie (1985), and Miller (1995).

    9

  • Thereby, n is the number of the components of a (sub-) index and R is the mean correlation

    of the items (e.g. the mean of the non-diagonal terms of the correlation matrix). The

    coefficient increases with the number of sub-indicators and with the correlation of each

    tuple. Cronbach’s Alpha is equal to zero if no correlation exists and the sub-indicators are

    independent. The coefficient is equal to one if sub-indicators are perfectly correlated.

    Hence, a high alpha indicates that the underlying items proxy well the desired variable.

    Nunnally (1978) suggests a value of 0.7 as acceptable threshold.

    The following Table 2 presents the consistency of the six main key drivers measured by the

    Cronbach’s Alphas of the underlying level 2 sub-indexes. We do not consider Taxation and

    Investor protection in this calculation, because they consist of too few underlying items.

    Table 2: Consistency analysis of the underlying items on the level of the six key drivers

    Sub-indicator

    Cronbach's Alpha

    Economic activity 0.553Capital market 0.729Taxation -Investor protection -Human and Social environment 0.750Entrepreneurial opportunities 0.785

    Cronbach’s Alpha for economic activity lies below Nunnally’s (1978) cut-off value of 0.7.

    This could lead us to exchange or to drop some items that proxy economic activity.

    However, the aggregation of the six key drivers to the overall VC/PE Attractiveness Index

    yields a Cronbach’s Alpha of 0.784. Thus, we propose that our selection of items represents

    well a country’s attractiveness for VC/PE investors and we do not discard sub-indexes from

    our sample.

    4.3 Normalization and Standardization

    All data-points need to be normalized for their index aggregation. There exist various

    techniques, each one with particular advantages and disadvantages as discussed by

    Freudenberg (2003), Jacobs et al. (2004), and Nardo et al. (2005a). We use two different

    methods - standardization and rescaling - in our calculations. Lastly, we analyze the

    differences resulting from using both methods in a robustness check.

    10

  • Standardization (or z-scores) converts the underlying data to a common scale of the normal

    distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one. Hence, variables with

    extreme values have a greater effect on the indicator. The z-score is defined as:

    sxxz −= (2).

    The rescaling method is used to normalize indicators to an identical range by linear

    transformation. This method is vulnerable for extreme values or outliers that can distort the

    transformation. However, rescaling can widen the range of indicators lying within small

    intervals more than using the z-scores transformation. The rescaling method is defined as:

    )min()max()min(

    xxxxy

    −−

    = (3).

    Ebert and Welsch (2004) discuss that the selection of a suitable normalization method is not

    trivial and requires special attention. The method shall consider the properties of the

    underlying data, as well as the objective of the summarized indicator. The z-scores and the

    rescaling approach are the most commonly used because they have desirable characteristics

    when it comes to aggregation.

    Considering our data, where the values of the variables are rather close to each other, the

    rescaling method seems most appropriate because it widens the countries’ spread, and

    hence, allows better interpretations. Accordingly, we use the rescaling method and convert

    all variables of the particular sub-indexes to a common scale from 0 to 100 points. Thereby,

    100 represents the best score, while 0 is the worst. For every individual variable, we define

    if high values positively or negatively influence the attractiveness for VC/PE investors,

    regarding the above-cited literature findings. In our robustness checks, we investigate the

    difference resulting from using z-scores for standardization. The next step deals with the

    weighting of the individual factors and sub-indexes, and the aggregation of all items to the

    VC/PE Attractiveness Index.

    4.4 Weighting of the Index Items

    If there are no statistical or empirical grounds for choosing a different scheme, we could use

    equal weights for the index items to calculate the index. This implies an equal contribution

    of all sub-indicators to the VC/PE attractiveness, which is arguable. Equal weighting, as

    11

  • discussed by Nardo et al. (2005a), can be the result of insufficient knowledge about causal

    relationships, ignorance about the correct model to apply or even stem from the lack of

    consensus on alternative solutions. There are a number of weighting techniques derived

    from statistical models. Manly (1994) discusses principal component analysis. Nardo et al.

    (2005a) propose factor analysis, and data development analysis. Kaufmann et al. (1999 and

    2003) use an unobserved component model. Other weighting techniques are derived from

    analytic hierarchy processes, as described in Forman (1983), or Saaty (1987), or from

    conjoint analysis, as in Green and Srinivasan (1978), Hair et al. (1998), and McDaniel and

    Gates (1998).

    We use both, one approach with equal weights among all the sub-index items and one

    approach based on factor analysis where we differentiate between the index levels. Level 3

    sub-indexes are still equally weighted, but for the level 2 and level 1 sub-indexes we follow

    Berlage and Terweduwe (1988). In this weighting method, each component of the level 1

    and level 2 sub-indexes is weighted according to its contribution to the total variance in the

    data. This is an attractive feature, because it ensures that the resulting summary indicators

    account for a large part of the cross-country variance of the underlying items. That makes

    this method independent of prior views on their relative economic importance, which is an

    arguable issue, but, as highlighted in Nicoletti et al. (2000), these properties are particularly

    desirable for cross-country comparisons. However, using the two weighting approaches, we

    can investigate the results of both in our robustness check.

    A detailed discussion of factor analyses is carried out e.g. in Hair et al. (1998). The general

    linear factor model for p observed variables and q factors or latent variables takes the form:

    iqiqiii eFFFx ++++= ααα ...2211 (i = 1,…,p) (4).

    Where xi represent standardized variables, and αi1,…,αiq are factor loadings related to the

    factors Fi,…,Fq, while ei are residuals. We assume that the factors are uncorrelated with each

    other, and with the residuals. Further, they have zero means, and unit variance. Additionally,

    the residuals are uncorrelated with each other, have zero means, but not necessarily equal

    variances.

    Now, the most common method used to extract the first m components is principal

    component analysis. The decision of when to stop extracting factors depends on the point

    when only little “random” variability remains. Various stopping rules have been developed

    12

  • as described in Dunteman (1989): Kaiser’s Criterion, Scree Plot, variance explained criteria,

    Joliffe Criterion, Comprehensibility, Bootstrapped Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors. However,

    Kaiser’s Criterion is one of the most widely used stopping rules and recommends to drop all

    factors with an Eigenvalue below one. Due to Kaiser (1958), most of the total variance is

    determined by components beyond the Eigenvalue of one. However, regarding the

    Eigenvalues in our sample, there is another large decrease of explained variance below

    Kaiser’s mark. As demonstrated in Table 3, we obtain three components that represent

    83.8% of the total variance given by the underlying data.

    Table 3: Total Variance explained by Components

    Total Variance Explained

    2,747 45,776 45,776 2,747 45,776 45,776 2,578 42,961 42,9611,306 21,766 67,541 1,306 21,766 67,541 1,272 21,195 64,156,976 16,268 83,810 ,976 16,268 83,810 1,179 19,654 83,810,446 7,431 91,241,300 5,005 96,246,225 3,754 100,000

    Component123456

    Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    The next step deals with the rotation of factors (see Table 4). According to Hair et al. (1998)

    the usual rotation method is the Varimax Rotation. Rotation is used to minimize the number

    of sub-indicators that have a high loading on the same factor. Ideally, each indicator is

    loaded exclusively on one of the factors. Kline (1998) points out, that the rotation changes

    the factor loadings, and hence, the factors’ interpretation, but leaves the analytical solutions

    ex-ante and ex-post rotation unchanged.

    Table 4: Rotated Component Matrix

    Rotated Component Matrixa

    ,849 ,077 ,249,700 -,457 ,391,018 ,924 ,154,089 ,133 ,966

    ,796 ,376 -,088

    ,851 -,211 ,004

    Economic activityCapital marketTaxationInvestor protectionHuman & SocialenvironmentEntrepreneurialopportunity

    1 2 3Component

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.

    Rotation converged in 5 iterations.a.

    Table 4 presents the component matrix after Varimax Rotation and allows an interesting

    interpretation of the resulting factors: Economic activity, capital market, human & social

    13

  • environment and entrepreneurial opportunities have high loadings on the first factor. Hence,

    it represents the general socio-economic conditions. Taxation and investor protection have

    each high loadings on the remaining two factors. Consequently, we can name the two other

    factors correspondingly. As a result, the socio-economic environment, the tax regime and

    property rights protection determine the index.

    The last step (see Table 5) of the weighting procedure deals with the construction of the

    weights from the matrix of factor loadings after rotation. The square of a factor loading

    represents the proportion of the variance of the indicator explained by the factors. Now, the

    three intermediate components are aggregated by weighting each composite using the

    proportion of the explained variance in the dataset: 0.513 for the first

    (0.513 = 2.578/(2.578+1.272+1.179)), 0.254 for the second component and 0.235 for the

    third one. We rescale the final weights to sum up to one to preserve the comparability.

    Finally, we can calculate the overall weights as a linear combination of the different

    components.

    Table 5: Calculation of the weights Private Equity AttractivenessRotated Component Matrix(a) Overall weights

    1 2 3 1 2 3Economic activity 0.849 0.077 0.249 0.280 0.005 0.053 0.157Capital market 0.700 -0.457 0.391 0.190 0.164 0.130 0.169Taxation 0.018 0.924 0.154 0.000 0.671 0.020 0.174Investor protection 0.089 0.133 0.966 0.003 0.014 0.791 0.191Human & Social environment 0.796 0.376 -0.088 0.246 0.111 0.007 0.156Entrepreneurial opportunity 0.851 -0.211 0.004 0.281 0.035 0.000 0.153Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a Rotation converged in 5 iterations.Expl. Var 2.578 1.272 1.179 1 1 1 1Expl. /Tot 0.513 0.253 0.235 Sum Sum Sum Sum

    Component loadings Component weights

    Table 5 presents the weights of the six key drivers (or level 1 sub-indexes). It becomes

    obvious that the difference between the weights of the key drivers is not very large,

    probably allowing for equal weightings of the sub-indexes as well. However, we will

    address this issue in the robustness check.

    Anyway, tables 3, 4, and 5 so far present the final procedure for the weights of the already

    aggregated level 1 sub-indexes (refer to Figure A1 in the appendix). To determine those

    sub-indexes we had to perform the same procedure for all the six key drivers one-step

    before. The calculations of the factor analyses for each key driver are described in the

    appendix (Tables A1 – A12).

    14

  • Nardo at al. (2005b) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of factor analysis. Factor

    analysis can summarize a set of sub-indicators while preserving the maximum possible

    proportion of the total variation in the original set. This is a very desirable feature for cross-

    country comparisons. Contrarily, the determined factor loadings might not represent the real

    influence of sub-indicators. Furthermore, factor analysis is highly sensitive towards

    modification of the sample due to data revisions or updates of new countries. Factor analysis

    is also very sensitive to the presence of outliers, which may introduce a spurious variability

    in the data, and to the sample size.

    4.5 Aggregation

    There also exist various procedures for the index aggregation. Nardo et al. (2005a and

    2005b) distinguish additive methods, geometric aggregation and non-compensatory multi-

    criteria analysis. We focus on linear and geometric aggregation because they are in common

    use.

    Linear aggregation is an additive method and defined as:

    ∑ ∑ =≤≤=i i

    iii wandwwherexwx 1,10, (9).

    Geometric aggregation is defined as:

    ∑∏ =≤≤=i

    ii

    ii wandwwherexwx 1,10, (10).

    Ebert and Welsch (2004) recommend that the linear aggregation method is useful when all

    sub-indicators have the same measurement unit, and geometric aggregation is better suited,

    if non-comparable and strictly positive sub-indicators are expressed in different ratio scales.

    Nardo et al. (2005a) highlight that linear aggregation assigns base indicators proportionally

    to the weights, while geometric aggregation rewards those countries or those sub-indicators

    with higher scores. Overall, a shortcoming in the value of one variable or sub-index can be

    compensated by a surplus in another. Compensability is constant in linear aggregation,

    while it is smaller in geometric aggregation for the sub-indicators with low values.

    Therefore, countries with low scores in some sub-indexes benefit from linear aggregation.

    Due to the properties of the rescaling method from 1 to 100 index points, we prefer linear

    aggregation. However, in the robustness analyses we will prove if the geometric aggregation

    method yields different index results.

    15

  • 16

    5. Results

    5.1 Base Findings

    We calculate the base case of our VC/PE Attractiveness Index according to the procedures

    described using rescaling, factor analysis, and linear aggregation. Figure 1 presents the

    index rankings for the EU-15 countries, for the CEE countries, for Switzerland and Norway,

    and for the GDP-weighted averages of the EU-15 and the CEE. The EU-15 states are chosen

    as the benchmark. Their score is indexed to 100 points to simplify country comparisons.

    That means that the CEE region, with 85 points, is 15% less attractive compared to EU-15

    benchmark.

    The top performers are Ireland, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark. The

    Central Eastern European Countries lag behind the EU-15 states. The best CEE performer

    with 96 index points is Hungary, followed by Slovenia with 95 points, which even rank

    before France. The CEE average still ranks before Italy and Spain. However, Bulgaria,

    Romania and Slovakia constitute less attractive economies for VC/PE investors while

    Greece qualifies as least attractive. The decisive factors for the individual countries shall not

    be discussed here, but are presented in the appendix in Tables A12 to A15.

    Focusing on the CEE region, and disaggregating the index result to the six key drivers, we

    can present the region’s strengths and weaknesses in Figure 2. The chart shows the six key

    drivers (and their index weights according to our factor analysis) of attractiveness for the

    CEE region, and the EU-15 states as the benchmark. Taxation is the strongest component of

    the CEE countries’ attractiveness for VC/PE investors. However, this criterion is highly

    dependent on the local legislations, and relatively quickly and arbitrarily adaptable by

    politicians. United Nations (2004) reports that CEE governments try to attract investors with

    low corporate tax rates and tax incentives within the accession process.

    Investor protection & Corporate Governance is another criterion where local legislatives

    copied Western European standards to catch up quickly in the accession process. Generally

    speaking, investors are as well protected by law on books and by enforcements in the CEE

    countries as they are in the average EU-15. Both, the character of the legal rules, and the

    quality of law enforcement is covered in the selected sub-indexes. The human & social

    environment is also on a par with the EU-15 level. However, the other key drivers cannot

  • reach the EU-15 average. Economic activity, entrepreneurial opportunities, and particularly

    capital markets lag (far) behind the EU-15 countries.

    Figure 1: Country Ranking According to the VC/PE Attractiveness Index – Method: Rescaling, Factor Analysis, and Linear Aggregation

    69

    76

    77

    79

    81

    82

    85

    85

    89

    100

    102

    102

    104

    110

    111

    121

    122

    124

    127

    130

    99

    93

    95

    95

    96

    96

    0 100

    Greece

    Slovakia

    Romania

    Bulgaria

    Italy

    Spain

    CEE

    Czech Republic

    Poland

    Baltic States

    France

    Slovenia

    Hungary

    Portugal

    Germany

    Austria

    Belgium

    Netherlands

    Finland

    Switzerland

    Norway

    Denmark

    Sweden

    UK

    Luxembourg

    Ireland

    VC/PE-Attractiveness Index

    EU15=100 Index Points

    17

  • Figure 2: Central Eastern European Strengths & Weaknesses (1)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200Economic activity ; (0.156)

    Capital market; (0.169)

    Taxation; (0.174)

    Investor protection; (0.190)

    Human & Social environment;(0.155)

    Entrepreneurial opportunity;(0.153)

    CEEEU15

    Figure 3 breaks down the index aggregation and presents the level 2 sub-indexes (and their

    weights calculated by our factor analysis) for the average of the CEE countries with the EU-

    15 states as the benchmark. It reveals that relatively small economies, high unemployment

    rates, and small and illiquid capital markets characterize the CEE countries. The capital

    markets in particular constitute a strong deficit in every sub-criterion compared to the EU-

    15 benchmark.

    The Human & social environment of the CEE countries is judged to be equal to the EU-15

    average. High educational standards, good labor regulations, and low crime rates constitute

    the strengths of the CEE culture. However, bribery and corruption remain higher in the CEE

    countries than in the West European benchmarks.

    While privatization and large enterprise restructuring processes are nearly completed,

    entrepreneurial opportunities are rather weak in CEE. In particular, the burden for starting a

    business is much higher than the EU-15 average. Additionally, the innovativeness of the

    CEE countries is ranked very poorly. The small number of patents and low public and

    private R&D expenditure contribute to that deficit.

    18

  • Figures A54 and A55 in the appendix present the scores of the six key drivers for all of our

    sample countries, and for the CEE and the EU-15 averages. Further, spider charts and bar

    charts, as in the appendix Figures A2 to A53, allow comprehensive comparisons of all our

    sample countries.

    Figure 3: Central Eastern European Strengths & Weaknesses (2)

    Central Eastern Europe

    69.71

    58.80

    53.48

    102.49

    24.76

    10.80

    70.77

    31.53

    19.03

    320.31

    100.37

    72.34

    105.33

    126.54

    88.83

    110.13

    52.87

    120.79

    26.84

    39.39

    83.65

    165.78

    67.29

    0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

    1.1 Gross Domest ic Product; (0.27)

    1.2 General Price Level; (0.25)

    1.3 Working force (unemployment rate); (0.25)

    1.4 Foreign direct investment, net inf lows; (0.21)

    2.1 IPO Volume; (0.23)

    2.2 Stock market ; (0.17)

    2.3 M &A market; (0.14)

    2.4 Credit and Debt market ; (0.20)

    2.5 Private equity act ivity; (0.24)

    3.1 Highest marginal tax rate, corporate rate; (0.5)

    3.2 Dif ference between income and corporate tax rate; (0.5)

    4.1 Extent of disclosure index; (0.33)

    4.2 Extent of director liability index; (0.33)

    4.3 Ease of shareholder suits index; (0.32)

    5.1 Education; (0.27)

    5.2 Labor regulat ions; (0.22)

    5.3 Bribing & corruption; (0.25)

    5.4 Criminality; (0.24)

    6.1 General Innovativeness; (0.22)

    6.2 R&D expenditure; (0.20)

    6.3 Enterprise restructuring; (0.19)

    6.4 Enterprise stock; (0.20)

    6.5 Burden: Start ing a Business; (0.17)

    EU 15 =100

    5.2 Attractiveness Regarding Actual VC/PE Activity

    Klonowski (2005) argues that the activity of VC/PE fundraising indicates the attractiveness

    of a particular country to foreign and domestic investors. Hence, there should be a strong

    correlation between our VC/PE attractiveness ranking and the fundraising activities in the

    various countries. In Figure 4, we present this relationship, adding the size of the individual

    19

  • 20

    economies measured by GDP per capita into the chart. The expected VC/PE activity is

    measured as averages of the ratios between raised funds and GDP for several years to

    smooth fluctuations. The data is taken from EVCA (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 and an

    additional EVCA database on the CEE market). Especially for the CEE countries, the raised

    funds fluctuate strongly among different periods. Therefore, we average the raised

    funds/GDP ratios for the CEE countries for all the periods since coverage in the EVCA

    database.5 For the other countries, we use the average of the ratios from 2003 to 2005. The

    chart shows a strong correlation between the actual VC/PE activity in the individual

    countries and our index results. This indicates that our index is a good proxy for the

    countries’ attractiveness for VC/PE investors. The Pearson Correlation coefficient is 0.571

    at a 0.002 significance level (two tailed). If we drop outliers beyond the percentile marked

    by two times the standard deviation of one of the variables (namely Ireland because of its

    high ranking, and the United Kingdom because of its high activity), the correlation becomes

    0.676 at a 0.000 significance level.

    Regarding Figure 4, it should be emphasized that there is a large volume of cross border

    transactions in some of the countries with large raised fund figures. Especially in the United

    Kingdom, a certain amount of the funds raised is allocated to other European economies.

    For the CEE market, Poland plays a similar role as a hub for fundraising activities.

    Furthermore, a high level of fund raising activities in the CEE region is, in some cases,

    attributable linked to a small number of (larger and regional) funds.

    5 The coverage in the EVCA database differs for the particular countries. Some countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, or Poland are covered since 1998. The Baltic States are least covered, since 2003.

  • Figure 4: VC/PE-Attractiveness vs. VC/PE-Activity

    Slo

    vaki

    a

    Rom

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    epub

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    Pol

    and

    Balti

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    -0.2

    5

    0.00

    0.25

    0.50

    0.75

    1.00

    1.25

    1.50

    1.75

    6575

    8595

    105

    115

    125

    135

    VC/P

    E-At

    trac

    tiven

    ess

    Inde

    x 200

    6 [EU

    15 =

    100

    ]

    Expected VC/PE-Activity [raised funds in % of GDP]

    Gre

    ece

    Slo

    vaki

    aR

    oman

    iaB

    ulga

    riaIta

    lyS

    pain

    Cze

    ch R

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    Stat

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    Slov

    enia

    Hun

    gary

    Por

    tuga

    lG

    erm

    any

    Aus

    tria

    Bel

    gium

    Net

    herla

    nds

    Finl

    and

    Sw

    itzer

    land

    Nor

    way

    Den

    mar

    kSw

    eden

    UK

    Luxe

    mbo

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    Irela

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    size

    = T

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    P pe

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    21

  • 5.3 Robustness Check

    As discussed before, the index is affected by the normalization, the weighting, and the

    aggregation technique. For the results commented above we used rescaling, factor analysis,

    and linear aggregation for the index calculation. Now, we investigate how other

    normalization, weighting, and aggregation techniques impact the results. Table 6 presents

    the ranks of the individual countries with respect to the approach chosen. The first two

    columns show the results for rescaling and linear aggregation, with altered weighting

    schemes. In column three and four, we use rescaling and geometrical aggregation, and again

    alter the weighting schemes. In column five, we use z-scores as standardization with equal

    weights and linear aggregation. The last column presents the volatility of the rankings

    measured by the standard deviation of the ranks for each country. The volatility ranges from

    0.4 to 2.5 with an average of 1.09. This means that ranks change very little across the

    different approaches.

    Table 6: Robustness of the VCPEAI

    Score Ranking Score Ranking Score Ranking Score Ranking Score RankingAustria 100.10 11 99.94 11 82.80 11 83.85 11 99.42 12 0.4Baltic States 89.63 17 92.61 17 68.65 19 73.16 18 88 17 0.9Belgium 100.01 12 102.01 10 79.61 12 82.17 12 100 10 1.1Bulgaria 74.49 22 79.00 22 40.06 23 44.12 22 75 23 0.5Czech Republic 82.39 19 85.01 19 70.86 17 73.51 17 80 19 1.1Denmark 121.02 5 120.60 5 112.46 3 110.50 3 120 4 1.0Finland 109.16 8 104.22 8 96.35 9 91.21 8 108 8 0.4France 94.94 13 94.96 16 78.61 13 78.37 15 95 13 1.4Germany 100.62 10 99.49 12 89.86 10 87.90 9 99 11 1.1Greece 67.20 25 69.38 25 43.63 22 42.10 23 63 25 1.4Hungary 93.29 15 95.87 14 77.07 14 79.83 14 92 15 0.5Ireland 127.85 1 130.03 1 114.56 2 111.77 2 127 1 0.5Italy 80.99 21 81.22 21 69.44 18 68.69 19 77 21 1.4Luxembourg 124.30 3 127.21 2 96.38 8 98.59 6 121 3 2.5Netherlands 105.00 9 102.34 9 97.24 7 94.05 7 106 9 1.1Norway 110.36 7 110.63 6 105.70 5 105.97 5 110 7 1.0Poland 83.00 18 89.23 18 55.43 21 64.23 20 85 18 1.4Portugal 92.69 16 95.89 13 76.79 15 80.34 13 90 16 1.5Romania 73.34 24 76.69 23 31.15 25 36.85 25 74 24 0.8Slovakia 73.81 23 76.27 24 38.80 24 41.41 24 77 22 0.9Slovenia 94.14 14 95.34 15 75.87 16 77.72 16 93 14 1.0Spain 81.97 20 82.41 20 59.10 20 56.97 21 79 20 0.4Sweden 124.96 2 122.26 4 111.77 4 109.31 4 122 2 1.1Switzerland 117.90 6 109.83 7 97.72 6 87.57 10 114 6 1.7UK 121.37 4 124.26 3 115.54 1 117.61 1 116 5 1.8

    Z-scoreEqual weights - LIN

    Volatility

    Re-scalingEqual weights - GME

    Re-scalingFactor analysis - GME

    Re-scalingEqual weights - LIN

    Re-scalingFactor analysis - LIN

    Summarizing, the index is robust against different normalization, weighting, and

    aggregation approaches. Figure 5 shows the rankings for the different approaches. The lines

    present the span of the ranks determined by the different approaches, while the dots indicate

    22

  • 23

    the average rank among the five scenarios from Table 6.6 We can clearly identify six tier

    groups of attractiveness as marked by the dashed lines. Within those tier groups, the ranks

    might change slightly due to the different approaches. However, there is hardly any

    transition across the tier groups.

    6 Note that the order of the individual countries in Figure 5 is according to their average rank across the different calculation approaches from Table 6. Hence, their order is not the same as in Figure 1.

  • Figure 5: Box plot of Rankings According to Different Index Calculation Approaches

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    Irelan

    d

    UKSw

    eden D

    enma

    rkLu

    xemb

    ourg

    Norw

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    erlan

    dFin

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    Nethe

    rland

    s Germ

    any

    Austr

    iaBe

    lgium

    Fran

    ceHu

    ngary

    Portu

    gal Sl

    oven

    iaBa

    ltic S

    tates

    Czec

    h Rep

    ublic

    Polan

    d

    Italy

    Spain

    Bulga

    riaSlo

    vakia

    Gree

    ce Rom

    ania

    Average Ranking Position

    24

  • 25

    6. Conclusions and Outlook

    In this paper, we present a composite index to measure the attractiveness of Central Eastern

    European countries for VC/PE investors. The index relies on several sub-indexes and raw

    data series. We review the literature on attractiveness determinants and refer to the most

    important findings for choosing the relevant data series and sub-indexes. For the index

    construction, we follow a pyramidal structure of three index levels and show that the

    selected data lead to a consistent result. We aggregate the data as suggested in literature and

    propose different methods for calculating the index, namely for normalization, weightings,

    and aggregation. The different methods give only slightly different results regarding the

    sample countries’ attractiveness, indicating the calculations’ robustness. We find six tier

    groups regarding the sample countries’ attractiveness rankings. The CEE region lags behind

    the average of the EU-15 states. Some of the CEE countries are more attractive for VC/PE

    investors than certain EU-15 states. A detailed analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of

    the individual countries, as presented in numerous figures in the appendix, provides

    conclusions for policy attempts to attract risk capital investors, and hence, to spur

    innovation, entrepreneurship, employment, and growth.

    The calculation of the index is based on publicly available data and ready-made sub-

    indexes. All of the data used are only proxies for the characteristics of the latent drivers. We

    have chosen the data series carefully, and we believe to present the best available selection

    of proxies for the desired parameters. However, some data series might not adequately

    indicate the latent variables in particular countries. Additionally, there are differences

    regarding definitions of the data series and regarding the methods to measure and aggregate

    the data among the individual countries. This is even valid for the EU-15 states. On the

    other hand, it has to be emphasized that whenever the ranking of a country might

    unwarrantedly benefit from particularities of an individual index item, the situation might be

    reversed at another stage. This is similar to the question about adding, discarding or

    exchanging particular data series. Adding, discarding, or exchanging individual index items

    will not influence the overall results meaningfully as proved in many unreported robustness

    checks.

    The availability of the necessary data series limits the scope of our index. The full data set

    with the required quality, and based on single sources, is not (yet) available to any useful

  • 26

    extent for other regions of the world (beside North America). Hence, further research should

    tackle how the quality of our findings changes with a reduced number of index items.

    Additionally, other worldwide available data series could qualify as proxies for creating a

    worldwide VC/PE Attractiveness Index, and including other emerging regions.

    Our economic approach cannot cover special situations or special opportunities in particular

    countries. This is notably the case for tax considerations. It is impossible to cover and

    compare individual countries’ tax regimes on a general level, especially considering taxes

    on dividends, and capital gains taxes, which might be of particular importance for the asset

    class in question. Moreover, our approach relies on least available and historic (averaged)

    data, and cannot consider the latest changes of individual items. Anyway, we attempt to

    contribute to the transparency of the VC/PE fund allocation process, and to discover

    strengths and weaknesses of the CEE economies to spur innovation, entrepreneurship,

    employment, and growth.

  • 27

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  • Appendix

    Table(s) A1: Factor Analysis - Economic activity

    Communalities

    1,000 ,8231,000 ,7911,000 ,789

    1,000 ,640

    Gross Domestic ProductGeneral Price LevelWorking forceForeign direct investment,net inflows [% of GDP]

    Initial Extraction

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Total Variance Explained

    1,892 47,289 47,289 1,892 47,289 47,289 1,715 42,887 42,8871,152 28,810 76,099 1,152 28,810 76,099 1,328 33,212 76,099,697 17,414 93,513,259 6,487 100,000

    Component1234

    Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Rotated Component Matrixa

    ,881 ,216-,141 ,878,556 ,693

    ,781 -,175

    Gross Domestic ProductGeneral Price LevelWorking forceForeign direct investment,net inflows [% of GDP]

    1 2Component

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.

    Rotation converged in 3 iterations.a.

    Table A2: Weights - Economic activity Economic activityRotated Component Matrix(a) Overall weights

    1 2 1 2 WeightsGross Domestic Product 0.881 0.216 0.453 0.035 0.270General Price Level -0.141 0.878 0.012 0.580 0.260Working force 0.556 0.693 0.180 0.362 0.259Foreign direct investment, net inflows [% of GDP] 0.781 -0.175 0.355 0.023 0.210Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a Rotation converged in 3 iterations.Expl. Var 1.715 1.328 1 1 1Expl. /Tot 0.564 0.436 Sum

    Component loadings Component weights

    Sum

    34

  • Table(s) A3: Factor Analysis - Capital market

    Communalities

    1,000 ,8991,000 ,6401,000 ,5421,000 ,7701,000 ,907

    IPOStock marketM&A market activityCredit and Debt marketPrivate equity activity

    Initial Extraction

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Total Variance Explained

    2,606 52,117 52,117 2,606 52,117 52,117 2,011 40,226 40,2261,153 23,064 75,181 1,153 23,064 75,181 1,748 34,955 75,181,740 14,805 89,986,357 7,150 97,136,143 2,864 100,000

    Component12345

    Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Rotated Component Matrixa

    ,948 -,009,522 ,607,068 ,733,108 ,871,908 ,289

    IPOStock marketM&A market activityCredit and Debt marketPrivate equity activity

    1 2Component

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.

    Rotation converged in 3 iterations.a.

    Table A4: Weights - Capital market Capital marketRotated Component Matrix(a) Overall weights

    1 2 1 2 WeightsIPO 0.948 -0.009 0.447 0.000 0.239Stock market 0.522 0.607 0.135 0.211 0.170M&A market activity 0.068 0.733 0.002 0.308 0.144Credit and Debt market 0.108 0.871 0.006 0.434 0.205Private equity activity 0.908 0.289 0.410 0.048 0.241Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a 1 components extracted.Expl. Var 2.011 1.748 1 1 1Expl. /Tot 0.535 0.465 SumSum

    Component loadings Component weights

    35

  • Table(s) A6: Factor Analysis - Investor protection

    Communalities

    1,000 ,767

    1,000 ,760

    1,000 ,729

    Extent of disclosure indexExtent of director liabilityindexEase of shareholdersuits index

    Initial Extraction

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Total Variance Explained

    1,147 38,248 38,248 1,147 38,248 38,248 1,133 37,765 37,7651,109 36,983 75,231 1,109 36,983 75,231 1,124 37,466 75,231,743 24,769 100,000

    Component123

    Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Rotated Component Matrixa

    -,167 ,860

    ,839 -,239

    ,634 ,572

    Extent of disclosure indexExtent of director liabilityindexEase of shareholdersuits index

    1 2Component

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.

    Rotation converged in 3 iterations.a.

    Table A7: Weights - Investor protection Investor protectionRotated Component Matrix(a) Overall weights

    1 2 1 2Extent of disclosure index -0.167 0.860 0.025 0.658 0.340Extent of director liability index 0.839 -0.239 0.621 0.051 0.337Ease of shareholder suits index 0.634 0.572 0.354 0.292 0.323Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a Rotation converged in 3 iterations.Expl. Var 1.133 1.124 1 1 1Expl. /Tot 0.502 0.498 SumSum

    Component loadings Component weights

    36

  • Table(s) A8: Factor Analysis - Human & Social environment

    Communalities

    1,000 ,8721,000 ,7101,000 ,8121,000 ,794

    EducationLabor regulationsBribing & corruptionCrime

    Initial Extraction

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Total Variance Explained

    2,045 51,131 51,131 2,045 51,131 51,131 2,045 51,128 51,1281,143 28,586 79,718 1,143 28,586 79,718 1,144 28,590 79,718,525 13,118 92,835,287 7,165 100,000

    Component1234

    Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Rotated Component Matrixa

    ,145 ,923,666 -,517,893 ,117

    -,885 -,107

    EducationLabor regulationsBribing & corruptionCrime

    1 2Component

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.

    Rotation converged in 3 iterations.a.

    Table A9: Weights - Human & Social environment Human & Social environmentRotated Component Matrix(a) Overall weights

    1 2 1 2Education 0.145 0.923 0.010 0.745 0.274Labor regulations 0.666 -0.517 0.217 0.233 0.223Bribing & corruption 0.893 0.117 0.390 0.012 0.255Crime -0.885 -0.107 0.383 0.010 0.249Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a Rotation converged in 3 iterations.Expl. Var 2.045 1.144 1 1 1Expl. /Tot 0.641 0.359 SumSum

    Component loadings Component weights

    37

  • Table(s) A10: Factor Analysis - Entrepreneurial opportunity

    Communalities

    1,000 ,9291,000 ,8571,000 ,7821,000 ,823

    1,000 ,696

    General InnovativenessR&D expenditureEnterprise restructuringEnterprise stock activityBurden: Starting aBusiness

    Initial Extraction

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Total Variance Explained

    2,988 59,754 59,754 2,988 59,754 59,754 2,421 48,412 48,4121,100 22,009 81,763 1,100 22,009 81,763 1,668 33,351 81,763,486 9,727 91,490,372 7,431 98,921,054 1,079 100,000

    Component12345

    Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative % Total % of Variance Cumulative %Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

    Rotated Component Matrixa

    ,854 ,447,855 ,355,875 -,132,019 -,907

    ,441 ,709

    General InnovativenessR&D expenditureEnterprise restructuringEnterprise stock activityBurden: Starting aBusiness

    1 2Component

    Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.

    Rotation converged in 3 iterations.a.

    Table A11: Weights - Entrepreneurial opportunity Entrepreneurial opportunityRotated Component Matrix(a) Overall weights

    1 2 1 2General Innovativeness 0.854 0.447 0.301 0.120 0.227R&D expenditure 0.855 0.355 0.302 0.076 0.210Enterprise restructuring 0.875 -0.132 0.316 0.010 0.191Enterprise stock activity 0.019 -0.907 0.000 0.493 0.201Burden: Starting a Business 0.441 0.709 0.080 0.301 0.170Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a Rotation converged in 3 iterations.Expl. Var 2.421 1.668 1 1 1Expl. /Tot 0.592 0.408 SumSum

    Component loadings Component weights

    38

  • Table A12: Level I Performance – EU (EU15=100)7

    Economic activity

    Capital market Taxation

    Investor protection

    Human & Social environment

    Entrepreneurial opportunity

    Weights 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.16 0.15Ireland 125.96 62.39 281.63 135.61 115.17 88.84Luxembourg 155.34 120.63 152.76 130.12 112.33 98.86UK 109.84 214.36 79.08 142.08 100.19 110.04Sweden 111.96 124.99 192.45 82.38 110.29 143.39Denmark 115.25 70.06 187.88 112.29 120.89 125.35Norway 114.87 68.37 135.41 118.21 112.78 107.62Switzerland 119.23 113.03 135.91 70.72 119.44 118.28Finland 97.97 87.81 93.63 100.38 99.85 136.70Netherlands 116.29 115.57 117.26 76.81 99.99 102.58Belgium 107.52 73.11 80.50 130.12 96.47 102.18Austria 110.19 46.52 179.97 65.33 109.59 104.99Germany 92.94 70.57 138.49 94.64 91.83 112.94Portugal 99.00 55.74 134.34 106.60 110.96 67.54Hungary 95.14 22.34 224.69 82.09 91.71 82.35Slovenia 96.46 21.76 179.97 100.46 104.23 73.82France 93.75 85.09 74.04 95.15 96.79 114.18Baltic States 82.23 27.55 178.48 100.50 99.85 74.15Poland 53.06 23.15 200.66 112.04 90.45 68.25Czech Republic 95.27 43.78 86.79 88.07 98.37 84.75CEE 63.36 27.91 169.03 98.72 91.10 66.79Spain 89.48 66.92 46.63 83.22 108.60 82.61Italy 87.40 54.33 59.61 83.14 94.90 91.53Bulgaria 35.40 35.21 171.86 94.56 95.85 55.72Romania 74.94 26.07 124.30 101.21 69.36 59.63Slovakia 66.26 39.69 104.84 70.77 103.00 72.33Greece 79.84 38.65 56.97 59.11 94.40 75.46

    7 Single observation and comparison of each item is made possible in this table.

    39

  • Table A13: Level II Performance – EU (1) (EU15=100)8

    Gross Domestic Product

    General Price Level

    Working force (unemployment rate)

    Foreign direct investment, net inflows IPO Volume Stock market M&A market

    Credit and Debt market

    Private equity activity

    Code 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5Weights 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.21 0.24 0.17 0.14 0.20 0.24Ireland 174.00 94.90 135.74 169.20 37.39 49.11 115.08 101.47 11.01Luxembourg 233.45 100.77 141.52 325.67 1.00 78.70 397.05 157.81 80.64UK 115.74 98.92 129.31 91.22 327.94 179.80 187.53 96.77 330.37Sweden 117.68 101.57 129.89 95.86 69.15 144.83 112.54 94.27 218.13Denmark 138.62 99.94 128.10 114.17 10.54 57.93 74.43 113.49 69.29Norway 188.00 95.21 137.77 49.88 45.09 44.07 80.40 99.49 57.75Switzerland 135.74 103.46 142.42 97.94 18.82 266.65 118.93 122.95 54.02Finland 106.38 101.07 90.02 99.50 28.79 178.47 117.74 87.93 52.35Netherlands 118.42 97.67 136.33 130.19 38.62 169.65 166.68 113.35 123.20Belgium 104.79 101.34 102.95 147.48 114.84 54.50 61.43 87.12 31.39Austria 109.07 102.23 135.17 71.78 15.26 10.41 31.56 109.43 17.34Germany 89.35 102.70 85.95 78.29 38.47 66.91 152.81 97.99 21.62Portugal 55.27 95.62 123.19 89.84 12.51 39.76 24.07 113.64 37.13Hungary 83.95 79.60 117.07 105.67 21.66 19.17 45.29 16.48 23.64Slovenia 92.32 88.69 116.48 74.58 1.00 9.42 58.04 27.49 26.19France 100.68 101.84 85.40 78.45 97.34 94.55 42.66 91.50 75.51Baltic States 85.66 91.27 62.11 100.17 2.29 8.76 15.33 56.76 29.15Poland 40.11 87.13 1.00 80.74 41.20 10.77 55.58 8.75 22.62Czech Republic 61.67 93.24 99.61 126.38 13.73 15.23 110.78 70.29 23.60CEE 69.71 58.80 53.48 102.49 24.76 10.80 70.77 31.53 19.03Spain 107.67 97.26 67.46 102.20 3.77 137.55 38.52 97.08 34.63Italy 89.65 98.33 90.81 32.61 36.17 61.56 19.62 88.94 28.71Bulgaria 67.28 1.00 36.00 134.68 1.00 1.30 147.11 62.07 1.00Romania 199.08 14.71 104.67 95.63 25.09 1.54 28.04 47.27 14.04Slovakia 72.90 92.60 5.23 128.92 1.00 2.58 219.40 47.64 8.91Greece 93.51 93.56 83.64 1.00 1.09 66.82 1.00 80.55 3.98

    8 Single observation and comparison of each item is made possible in this table.

    40

  • Table A14: Level II Performance - EU (2) (EU15=100)9

    Highest marginal tax rate, corporate rate

    Difference between income and corporate tax rate

    Extent of disclosure index

    Extent of director liability index

    Ease of shareholder suits index Education

    Labor regulations

    Bribing & corruption Criminality

    Code 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4Weights 0.50 0.50 0.34 0.34 0.32 0.27 0.22 0.25 0.25Ireland 468.77 196.70 131.19 117.15 155.36 102.86 121.96 97.51 135.